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Estimating relative abundance from count data

Much of the available information on large-scale patterns of animal abundance is based on count surveys. The data provided by such surveys are often influenced by nuisance factors affecting the numbers of animals counted, but unrelated to population size. Temporal and spatial patterns in nuisance factors may exist, causing simple summaries of counts to give a misleading view of patterns in population size. We develop models for count data that allows the incorporation of such factors, and describe methods for estimating spatial patterns of relative abundance from counts. We carry out spatial analyses of North American Breeding Bird Survey data, in which observer ability is a nuisance parameter nested within sites. In light of evidence that new observers tend to count more birds than the observers they replace, we model observer ability as a random effect with mean depending on observer initiation year.

Austrian Journal of Statistics↗

Editors are editors, not oracles

Farji-Brener and Kitzberger (2014; hereafter FBK) resurrect the issues of Farji-Brener (2007) concerning manuscripts that are submitted to journals but that are not sent out for peer review: a process we call “reject following editorial review” (RFER). We thank FBK for reviving discussion about this important topic as new challenges, including new publication outlets, peer-review models, and an increasingly complex and voluminous scientific literature, are emerging across the publication landscape. While we disagree with FBK's perspective and conclusions, we recognize that this discussion can help to improve editorial and publication processes, and we welcome the opportunity to inform the ecological community about the current status of editorial practice at ESA journals.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗

A note on the comparative turbidity of some estuaries of the Americas

Field data from 27 estuaries of the Americas are used to show that, in broad terms, there is a large difference in turbidity between the analyzed east and west-coast estuaries and that tidal range and tidal length have an important influence on that turbidity. Generic, numerical sediment-transport modeling is used to illustrate this influence, which exists over a range of space scales from, e.g., the Rogue River Estuary (few km, few mg l-1) to the Bay of Fundy (hundreds of km, few g l-1). The difference in Pacific and Atlantic seaboard estuarine turbidity for the analyzed estuaries is ultimately related to the broad-scale geomorphology of the two continents.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

Prediction of areas where irrigation drainage may induce selenium contamination of water

The U.S. Department of the Interior has investigated 25 areas in the western USA to determine whether irrigation drainage has caused harmful effects on wildlife or has reduced subsequent beneficial uses of the water. A database of chemical analyses of water, sediment, and biota from the 25 areas was created and supplemented with geologic, climatologic, and hydrologic data. The data were evaluated to identify common features among study areas and principal factors that result in Se contamination of water in lakes, ponds, and streams downgradient of irrigated areas. From the analysis of data, a decision tree that uses readily available geologic, climatologic, and hydrologic data was derived for use by resource managers as a screening tool to predict the likelihood that irrigation drainage will result in Se contamination in areas of the western USA. Irrigation in areas that are not associated with marine sedimentary rocks of late Cretaceous age is unlikely to cause Se contamination. Irrigation in very arid areas that are associated with these Cretaceous sediments is almost certain to cause Se contamination if the irrigation water drains to terminal lakes and ponds. The likelihood that an area will be contaminated with Se because of irrigation drainage can change, particularly with changes in precipitation. During normal or wet periods, Se contamination may not occur in an area, even though it has seleniferous soils, but reduced water deliveries during a drought in such an area may result in Se contamination.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

The population of dusky Canada geese ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Alaska↗

Risk preferences and flood insurance

A detailed theoretical model characterizing the individual's decision to purchase flood insurance is specified and the magnitude of the risk parameter is estimated using data based on transactions of flood insurance purchases. Empirical results for several samples of this subset of the general population indicated that consumers exhibited a relatively uniform degree of risk aversion across various localities where different hydrologic and economic conditions prevailed. While the estimates presented should not be directly extrapolated to the entire population located in a flood prone area, they provide evidence that parameters determining an individual's and/or community's willingness to pay for flood protection can be measured.

American Journal of Agricultural Economics↗

Habitat use and terrestrial activity by red tree voles ( Arborimus longicaudus ) in Oregon

Several species of vertebrates may find optimal habitat for breeding, nesting, or foraging in old-growth (>200 years old) confierous forests in the Pacific Northwest. Old-growth forests are economically valuable, however, and most unprotected stands will be cut within 40 years (Franklin et al., 1981). Meslow et al. (1981) and Raphael (1984) identified a critical need to document habitat use and establish the relationship of wildlife species in these forests. In 1983, we operated arrays of pitfall traps for six months to investigate habitat use by terrestrial herpetofauna and small mammals in four age classes of Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii ) forest in and near the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Linn and Lane counties, Oregon. Red tree voles, Arborimus longicaudus , were among the mammals captured. This species is considered to find optimum habitat in old-growth forests (Franklin et al., 1981; Meslow et al., 1981), but quantitative data on the local occurrence of the species are lacking. Here we report on habitat use by A. longicaudus and document terrestrial activity for this presumably arboreal species. A pitfall array was located in each of 18 stands dominated by Douglas-fir. Each array consisted of two sets of three 5-m aluminum drift fences each with pitfall traps (No. 10 tin cans; 6.4 l in volume) at the ends of the fences (see Bury and Raphael, 1983). The 18 stands represented four successional stages based on estimated age: 3 pre-canopy (clear cuts 5-9 years old), 3 young (30-69 years), 4 mature (76-150 years), and 8 old-growth (195-450 years). Additionally, old-growth stands were ranked on a general moisture gradient (wet, mesic, or dry) based on aspect, topographic position, and presence of indicator plant species. Pitfall traps were operated continuously for 180 days from late May to late November, 1983.

Oregon↗

Incorporation of bacterial extracellular polysaccharide by black fly larvae (Simuliidae)

Black fly larvae (Simulium) assimilated, with high efficiency (80-90%), bacterial extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) extracted from laboratory cultures of a pseudomonad isolated from the Ogeechee River. Incorporation was traced using <sup>13</sup>C-labelled EPS offered to larvae as a coating on a mixture of 1-μm latex beads and kaolin particles. These EPS-coated particles were used to simulate natural particles, both living and dead. Solubility, protein, and nitrogen content of the EPS suggested it was a slime rather than a capsular polysaccharide. Glycosyl composition of the EPS was glucose and galactose in α and β linkages, with pyruvate, succinate, and possibly malonate constituent groups. To evaluate the incorporation of C derived from protein associated with the EPS matrix, feeding experiments were conducted using EPS with and without proteins extracted. Black fly larvae incorporated 7.2 μg EPS C larva<sup>-1</sup> d<sup>-1</sup> from EPS that did not have proteins extracted, and 19.5 μg EPS C larva<sup>-1</sup> d<sup>-1</sup> from EPS with proteins extracted. Carbon in protein that is typically associated with EPS was not solely or selectively incorporated. EPS incorporation rates are similar to rates of cellular bacterial carbon incorporation previously estimated for Ogeechee River black fly larvae. If EPS is generally available as a food resource, the importance of bacteria in detrital food webs may be underestimated by studies that examine only the consumption of bacterial cells.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

Life history and propagation of the endangered fanshell pearlymussel, Cyprogenia stegaria Rafinesque (Bivalvia: Unionidae)

Aspects of the reproduction, age, growth, fish hosts, and culture of juveniles were determined for the endangered fanshell pearlymussel, Cyprogenia stegaria Rafinesque, 1820, in the Clinch River, Tennessee. Glochidia of C. stegaria are contained in red, worm-like conglutinates that resemble oligochaetes. Conglutinates are 20 to 80 mm long and are released through the excurrent aperture. Estimated fecundity was 22,357 to 63,459 glochidia/mussel. Eighty-four valves of C. stegaria were thin-sectioned for aging; ages ranged from 6 to 26 y. Of 16 fish species tested, 9 hosts were identified through induced infestations of glochidia: mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi), banded sculpin (Cottus carolinae), greenside darter (Etheostoma blennioides), snubnose darter (Etheostoma simoterum), banded darter (Etheostoma zonale), tangerine darter (Percina aurantiaca), blotchside logperch (Percina burtoni), logperch (Percina caprodes), and Roanoke darter (Percina roanoka). Newly metamorphosed juveniles were cultured in recirculating and nonrecirculating aquaculture systems within dishes containing sediments of 300 to 500 μm diameter (sand) or <105 μm diameter (silt), and fed either the green algae Neochloris oleoabundans or Scenedesmus quadricauda daily. Growth and survival of juvenile mussels were highest in the nonrecirculating aquaculture system, with a mean survival of 72% after 2 wk and 38% after 4 wk.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

An empirical note on firm performance in government contract markets

Public construction and, in particular, highway construction account for a large proportion of the non-defense expenditures by the government. Con- tracts for highway construction are let almost exclusively through a sealed tender process. Competitive bidding is used to encourage price competition. There is, however, a problem in insuring that the bidder is able to deliver the product of specified quality and within a particular time period. Hence, in regulating such markets for product performance the bidding authority may wish to exclude bidders who cannot demonstrate that they are qualified to perform the specified service. In this paper, data from state highway departments are used to indicate the consequences of such exclusive policies in terms of market performance. The results obtained are consistent with traditional theory and present an interesting addition to the more specialized literature on participation of private firms in government markets.

The Journal of Industrial Economics↗

Dieback and episodic mortality of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), a dominant Sonoran Desert tree

Past and current dieback of Cercidium microphyllum , a dominant, drought-deciduous tree in the Sonoran Desert, was investigated at Tumamoc Hill, Tucson, Arizona, USA. Logistic regression predicted that the odds of a Cercidium plant being alive should decrease with increasing circumference, association with the columnar cactus Carnegiea gigantea, and occurrence on steep slopes. Slope azimuth, parasitization by Phoradendron californicum , and distance to nearest Cercidium within 5 m did not significantly affect the odds of survival. Carnegiea was a source of background mortality rather than a primary cause of dieback. Of the >1,000 living and dead plants sampled, 7.7% had died within the past 5 to 7 years. An additional 12.8% died in the more distant past. Diebacks tended to occur during severe deficits in annual, especially summer, rain. More than half of the dead plants in the sample were ≥ 50 cm in girth. In current and past diebacks on Tumamoc Hill, it seems likely that severe drought interacted with natural senescence of an aging population, weakening large, old trees and hastening their deaths.

Arizona↗

Proportion of recovered duck bands that are reported

Band-reporting rates (the proportion of duck bands recovered by hunters that are actually reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory) appear to have decreased between the late 1950's and early 1960's. About one-half the banded ducks bagged during the 1958-59 and 1959-60 hunting seasons were reported-a rate similar to those recorded in other studies conducted during the early and mid-1950's. Band-reporting rates were lower for the 1962-63 and 1962-64 hunting seasons; less than one-third of the banded ducks bagged were reported. This decrease in band-reporting rates was concurrent with significant changes in duck hunting regulations, the volume of duck banding, and the method used to relay information to the person who reports a band. Band-reporting rates differed for various species of ducks. In general, band-reporting rates were high on canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ), redheads ( A. americana ), and pintails ( Anas acuta ) and low for teals ( Anas discors and A. carolinensis ).

contiguous United States↗