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Expected warning times from the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of earthquakes that occur in the Cascadia subduction zone. Many locations in the Pacific Northwest are expected to experience shaking from shallow crustal earthquakes (similar to those in California), earthquakes that occur deep within the subducted slab, and large megathrust earthquakes that occur primarily offshore. The different geometries and maximum magnitudes associated with these types of earthquakes lead to a range of warning times that are possible between when the initial ShakeAlert Message is issued and when a user experiences strong shaking. After an earthquake begins, the strategy of the ShakeAlert system for public alerting is to warn people who are located close enough to the fault that the system estimates they will experience at least weak to moderate shaking. By alerting the public at these low levels of expected shaking, it is possible to provide sufficient warning times for some users to take protective actions before strong shaking begins. In this study, we present an analysis of past ShakeAlert Messages as well as simulations of historical earthquakes and potential future Cascadia earthquakes to quantify the range of warning times that users who experience strong or worse shaking are likely to receive. Additional applications for ShakeAlert involve initiation of automatic protective actions prior to the onset of shaking, such as slowing trains, shutting water supplies, and opening firehouse doors, which are beyond the scope of this paper. Users in the Pacific Northwest should expect that the majority of alerts they receive will be from shallow crustal and intraslab earthquakes. In these cases, users will only have a few seconds of warning before strong shaking begins. This remains true even during infrequent, offshore great (magnitude ≥8) megathrust earthquakes, where warning times will generally range from seconds to tens of seconds, depending on the user’s location and the intensity of predicted shaking that a user chooses to be alerted for, with the longest warning times of 50–80 seconds possible only for users located at considerable distance from the epicenter. ShakeAlert thus requires short, readily understood alerts stating that earthquake shaking is imminent and suggesting protective actions users should take. Extensive education and outreach efforts that emphasize the need to take actions quickly will be required for ShakeAlert to successfully reduce injuries and losses.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Inventory of eelgrass (Zostera marina) and seaweeds at the end of the Alaska Peninsula, August–September 2012:

Coastal communities in Alaska are undergoing rapid environmental change from increasing temperatures and baseline data are needed to monitor potential impacts. We conducted the first surveys of the abundance and distribution of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) and seaweeds in the western part of Izembek National Wildlife Refuge at the end of the Alaska Peninsula. Six embayments and two offshore islands were surveyed in August–September of 2012. Biotic (percent cover of eelgrass/seaweeds, presence/absences of five sessile invertebrates), and abiotic (water temperature, salinity, and depth) data were recorded at 257 survey points (range =9–74 points per site) across all sites. Twenty-two genera/species of seaweeds were identified at the six embayments. New seaweed species for the offshore islands of Sanak and Caton were added to an existing seaweed collection accessioned at the University of British Columbia Herbarium. We also collected samples of eelgrass to be accessioned at U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center-Molecular Ecology Laboratory, for future genetic analyses. Fifty-three species of birds and 13 species of mammals were observed and recorded during the survey period.

Alaska↗

Rigorously valuing the coastal hazard risks reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico

The restoration of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, can reduce risks by decreasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. In the United States, the protective services provided by coral reefs were recently assessed in social and economic terms, with the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs off the coasts of the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico estimated to be more than 9,800 people and $859 million (2010 U.S. dollars). Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 caused widespread damage to coral reefs in the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools to provide a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration could decrease the hazard faced by Florida and Puerto Rico’s reef-fronted coastal communities. The three restoration scenarios considered: (1) Ecological restoration, ‘E25’, which assumes planting 0.25-meter (m)-high corals on a (cross-shore) 25-m-wide reef; (2) Structural plus ecological, ‘S25’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 25 m wide reef; and (3) structural plus ecological, ‘S05’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 5 m wide reef. Planted corals are assumed to increase hydrodynamic roughness, thereby dissipating incident wave energy and decreasing flooding potential. We used a standardized approach to ‘place’ potential restoration projects throughout the whole (linear) extent of reefs bordering Florida and Puerto Rico to identify where coral reef restoration could be useful for meeting flood reduction benefits. We always sited potential restoration projects within the existing distribution of reefs even though many sites were far (kilometers [km]) offshore and some sites were relatively deep (up to 7 m depth). We followed risk-based valuation approaches to map flood zones at 10-square-meter resolution along all 980 km of Florida and Puerto’s Rico reef-lined shorelines for the three potential coral reef restoration scenarios and compare them to the flood zones without coral reef restoration. We quantified the potential coastal flood risk reduction provided by coral reef restoration using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. Using the damages associated with each storm probability, we also calculate the change in annual expected damages, a measure of the annual protection gained because of coral reef restoration. We found that the benefits of reef restoration off Florida and Puerto Rico are spatially highly variable. In most areas, we found little or no benefit from reef restoration (for example, restoration sites were far offshore or deep). However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. In particular, we estimated the protection gained by Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs from coral reef restoration to result in: Avoided flooding to more than 5.6 square kilometers (2.16 square miles) of land annually; Avoided flooding affecting more than 3,100 people annually; Avoided direct damages of more than $124.2 million to more than 890 buildings annually; and Avoided indirect damages to more $148.7 million in economic activity owing to housing and business damage annually. Thus, the annual value of flood risk reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico is more than 3,100 people and $272.9 million (2010 U.S. dollars) in economic activity. These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico can increase critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits. These results help identify areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, Florida and Puerto Rico’s coastal communities.

Florida↗

Monitoring of wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Fog Point Living Shoreline, Glenn Martin National Wildlife Refuge, Maryland

Living shorelines with salt marsh species, rock breakwaters, and sand nourishment were built along the coastal areas in the Glenn Martin National Wildlife Refuge, Maryland, in 2016 in response to Hurricane Sandy (2012). The Fog Point living shoreline at Glenn Martin National Wildlife Refuge was designed with the “headland - breakwater - embayment” pattern. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, Northeastern University, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Louisiana State University studied wave, current, and sediment dynamics to assess the effectiveness of the Fog Point living shoreline structures in terms of wave attenuation and erosion reduction. Wave gages, current meters, sediment traps, sediment tiles, and lateral erosion pins were deployed along the Fog Point shoreline during February 10–14, 2020. Because of COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions, sensors were not retrieved until August 25, 2021, which was 18 months after field deployment, resulting in tremendous loss or damage of sensors and sediment measurements. Monitoring data indicated that wave heights were substantially reduced at locations behind the breakwater (headland) compared to the wave heights in the offshore location, but not at the location in the control area (the embayment). Current patterns and current velocities at the location behind the breakwater were complex and changed dramatically compared to the current patterns and current velocities offshore. Sediments were blocked by the breakwater most of the time except during periods of storms with wave heights larger than 0.9 meter, when waves overtopped the breakwater and brought sediments to the tidal flat and salt marshes behind the breakwater. Behind the breakwater, both sediment deposition and erosion were observed during the 18 months of monitoring. Continued low elevation marsh edge erosion from wave undercutting along the embayment was observed, especially at the existing wave-cut gullies. Monitoring results indicate that the “breakwater + marsh planting” structure along the Fog Point shoreline has limited shoreline protection capacity. Marsh edge erosion behind the breakwater was likely caused by the limited sediment supply from marine sources for transport and delivery, as well as the effects of circulation and current velocity on the settling and deposition of suspended sediments from eroded marshes. Marsh edge erosion continued in the embayment or control area where no shoreline restoration structures were implemented. Long-term (decadal scale) monitoring and adaptive management of living shoreline structures could help to assess the effectiveness of wave attenuation for reducing shoreline erosion and enhancing vegetation growth for trapping sediments and the effectiveness of marsh surface elevation growth for keeping pace with sea level rise.

Maryland↗

Numerical modeling of circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation in Long Island, New York

The Shinnecock Indian Nation on Long Island, New York, faces challenges of shoreline retreat, saltwater intrusion, and flooding of the Tribal lands under changing climate and rising sea level. However, understanding of the dynamics of tidal circulation and waves and their impacts on the Shinnecock Indian Nation’s shoreline remains limited. This numerical study employs the integrated modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW and the spectral-wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to investigate the circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation. The results of the 1-year long simulation indicate the majority of wind waves approach the Shinnecock Nation shorelines at normal wave angles, with yearly averaged offshore wave height of around 0.2 meter, maximum wave height reaching 0.65 meter, and yearly averaged offshore wave power of approximately 50 watts per meter. Boulders, acting as natural barriers, have been placed along the shoreline to reduce erosive wave forcing. Simulation results indicate the boulders to the north end effectively attenuate wave energy and reduce annual wave power, while the boulders near the two tidal ponds adjacent to the Tribal cemetery only have a slight influence on wave energy. There are large spatial variabilities in wave attenuation and current velocity reduction by the boulders. The model framework developed in this study can be utilized for the optimal design of nature-based solutions, guiding decisions on the placement of living shoreline structures and determining their optimal size. This study further identifies data and knowledge gaps as well as future research opportunities that can enhance the performance of numerical models and contribute to the scientific understanding of coastal processes and facilitate the optimal design of hybrid living shorelines in the future to achieve the maximum protective efficacy. This research can help to inform strategies for safeguarding vulnerable coastal communities and promoting resilience and sustainability of shoreline along the Shinnecock Indian Nation.

New York↗

Regional and other general factors bearing on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards to coastal communities of southeastern Alaska

The great Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in seismically active regions. As a result, nine communities in southeastern Alaska were selected for reconnaissance investigations as an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. This report gives background information on the regional and other general factors that bear on these evaluations. Southeastern Alaska, about 525 miles long and averaging about 125 miles in width, consists of a narrow mainland strip and numerous islands. For the most part, it is a region of rugged relief with numerous glaciers capping many of the higher mountainous areas and with long linear fiords forming the inland waterways. A maritime climate prevails with mild winters and cool summers. The southeastern part of the region receives the highest precipitation in the continental United States. Ketchikan, with a population of 6,994 in 1970, is the largest city. Geology and structure of the area are complex. Igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks crop out and range in age from Paleozoic to Tertiary. Surficial deposits of Pleistocene and Holocene age mantle many areas. All of southeastern Alaska, except probably the highest peaks, was covered by glacier ice advances of late Pleistocene age. Major deglaciation was well advanced by 10,000 years ago--a time which approximately marks the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene. There followed a period of warm climate called the Hypsithermal, which in southeastern Alaska began 7,000-8,000 years ago and ended about 4,800-3,500 years ago. Glaciers in most places receded back of their present positions. The Hypsithermal was followed by an interval (termed Neoglaciation) of cooler climate and resurgence of glacier ice which continues to the present, although most glaciers are now rapidly receding. During the past 10,000 years worldwide sea level has risen about 100 feet, but during the past 4,000 years it has risen only about 10 feet or about 0.03 inch per year. With sea level used as a datum, the amount of sea-level rise must be added to the apparent uplift of land for the time under consideration to determine the actual amount of land uplift. The widespread presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land in southeastern Alaska has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known uplift is in the vicinity of Juneau where glaciomarine deposits are present 750 feet above present sea level. Part of southeastern Alaska is presently undergoing one of the most rapid rates of uplift of any place in the world. The fastest emergence is occurring in the Glacier Bay area where the land is being uplifted relative to sea level approximately 3.9 cm per year. Most or all of the uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Southeastern Alaska lies within the circum-Pacific earthquake belt, one of the world's greatest zones of seismic activity. During historic time, there have been five earthquakes in the region with magnitudes of 8 or greater, three with magnitudes of 7 to 8, eight with magnitudes of 6 to 7, more than 15 with magnitudes of 5 to 6, and about 140 recorded earthquakes with magnitudes smaller than 5 or of unassigned magnitudes. All of the earthquakes with magnitudes 8 or greater, and a large proportion of the others, appear to be related to the active Fairweather- Queen Charlotte Islands fault system or its western extension, the Chugach-St. Elias fault. Earthquake epicenters on the Denali fault system, the other major fault system in southeastern Alaska, are few in comparison. However, because high microearthquake activity has been recorded recently on this system and earthquakes of moderate size have occurred on some of its segments, the Denali fault system probably should not be dismissed as a relict fault system of no current tectonic importance. There are numerous other known faults, as well as lineaments that may be faults of varying degrees of tectonic activity in southeastern Alaska, adjacent Canada, and eastern Alaska. One of these elements is the Totschunda fault system, which connects with the Denali fault system in eastern Alaska; it has been very active during Holocene time but few historical earthquake epicenters appear to be related to it. Both historical seismicity and geologic conditions, such as frequency and recency of faulting, must be considered together to permit an assessment of the future earthquake probability of an area. Data are too few for both factors for an accurate evaluation to be made of earthquake probability in southeastern Alaska. However, information compiled in the form of strain-release and seismic-zone maps permit some generalizations. Thus, it is tentatively concluded that most, if not all, of southeastern Alaska should be placed in seismic zone 3, a zone in which earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 will occur from time to time and where there may be major damage to manmade structures. Inferred effects from future earthquakes in southeastern Alaska include: (1) surface displacement along faults and other tectonic land-level changes, (2) ground shaking, (3) compaction, (4) liquefaction in cohesionless materials, (5) reaction of sensitive and quick clays, (6) water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing, (7) earthquake-induced sub aerial slides and slumps, (8) earthquake induced subaqueous slides, (9) effects on glaciers and related features, (10) effects on ground water and stream flow, and (11) tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves. Because of the reconnaissance nature of our studies in the coastal communities and the sparsity of laboratory data on physical properties of geologic units in each area studied, the inferred effects must be largely empirical and generalized. Therefore, the inferences are based in large part upon the effects of past major earthquakes in Alaska and elsewhere, particularly upon the well-documented effects of the Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964. Buildings, highways, bridges, tunnels, harbor facilities, pipelines, canals, and other manmade structures may be severely damaged or destroyed by fault displacement or related tectonic land-level changes in southeastern Alaska. Direct damage from fault rupture would be restricted virtually to structures built directly athwart the fault. In California and Nevada, fault rupture almost always accompanies shocks of magnitude 6.5 or greater. The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, and the Chilean earthquake of May 22, 1960, dramatically illustrated the severe adverse effects that can result from uplift or subsidence over a wide area. The variable most responsible for the degree of shaking at any epicentral distance is the type of ground. Generally, shaking is considerably greater in poorly consolidated deposits than in hard bedrock, particularly if the deposits are water saturated. Severe shaking of alluvial deposits and manmade fill, with resultant heavy damage, is well documented from the records of many past earthquakes. Damage commonly has been heavy as a result of ground settlement caused by compaction of loose sediments by shaking during an earthquake. This has been especially true where compaction was accompanied by tectonic downdrop of land, such as occurred during the Chilean earthquake of 1960 and the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Loosely emplaced manmade fill, deltaic deposits, beach deposits, and alluvial deposits may be susceptible to compaction in southeastern Alaska during a severe earthquake. Liquefaction of sand and silt is a fairly common effect of large earthquakes. It was well illustrated at Niigata, Japan, during the earthquake of June 16, 1964, and resulted in extensive damage. When part of a sloping soil mass liquefies, the entire mass can undergo catastrophic failure and can flow as a high-density liquid. In southeastern Alaska, deltaic deposits probably would be most susceptible to liquefaction. Sensitive and quick clays, which lose a considerable part of their strength when shaken, commonly fail during an earthquake and become rapid earthflows. Extensive studies were made of the sensitivity of the Bootlegger Cove Clay at Anchorage because of the marked loss of shear strength and dramatic failures of the deposits during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. If similar sensitive clays are present in some places in southeastern Alaska, they most likely are in some of the emergent fine-grained marine deposits; supporting data to confirm their presence, however, are largely lacking. Records of some 50 major earthquakes show that in at least half of the instances water and sediment have been ejected from surficial deposits Water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing commonly cause extensive damage to the works of man. Ejecta may fill basements and other low-lying parts of buildings. Agricultural land can be covered with a blanket of infertile soils, and small ponds can be filled or made shallow. In southeastern Alaska these phenomena are most likely to occur on valley floors, deltas, tidal flats, alluvial fans, swamps, and lakeshores. Earthquake-induced sliding on land generally is confined to steep slopes but may take place in fine-grained deposits on moderately to nearly flat surfaces if the deposits are subject to liquefaction. A large rockslide triggered by the Lituya Bay, Alaska, earthquake of July 10, 1958, generated a wave that surged up the opposite wall of the inlet to a record height of 1,740 feet. During the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of August 17, 1959, a spectacular rockslide plunged into the Madison River canyon, buried 28 people, dammed the river, and created a large lake. Earthquake-records are replete with accounts of sliding of surficial deposits during moderate to large earthquakes. Most or all of the general factors that favor subaerial landsliding are present in southeastern Alaska. Earthquake-induced subaqueous slides can produce adverse effects both nearshore and some distance offshore. Nearshore sliding may progress shoreward and destroy harbor facilities and other structures, commonly with substantial loss of life. Disastrous large submarine slides occurred along the fronts of deltas in Seward and Valdez during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. In similar fashion, the largest submarine slides in southeastern Alaska likely will be triggered along the larger delta fronts. Sliding farther offshore can constitute a threat to navigation because of changes in water depths. Also underwater sliding can break communication cables. Glaciers were not greatly affected by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 despite the fact that about 20 percent of the area that underwent strong shaking is covered by ice. In contrast, the cataclysmic avalanche of ice and rock that fell from a high glacier-covered peak in Peru during the earthquake of May 31, 1970, produced devastating effects downvalley on man and his works in the form of mudflows. Most towns in southeastern Alaska are sufficiently distant from glaciers so as not be to directly affected. Both the Alaska earthquake of 1964 and the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of 1959 significantly affected ground- and surface-water regimens. Water levels in some wells declined whereas in others flow increased. Some springs discharged at a rate three times as much as normal; flow of others decreased or stopped. Discharge of many streams increased markedly. Most or all of the effects described above could occur in parts of southeastern Alaska during future large earthquakes. Tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves associated with large earthquakes commonly cause vast property damage and heavy loss of life. Tsunami effects can be devastating to coastal areas as far as many thousands of miles from their generation source. Seiche effects generally are confined to inland bodies of water or to relatively enclosed coastal bodies of water. Abnormal waves generated by submarine sliding or by subaerial sliding into water generally produce only local effects but may be highly devastating. Tsunami waves resulting from the Chilean earthquake of 1960 inflicted extensive damage and loss of life on coastal communities throughout a large part of southern Chile, and significant runups and damage were recorded in many places throughout the Pacific Ocean area. The tsunami waves generated by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 struck with devastating force along a broad stretch of the Alaska coast and produced heavy property damage and loss of life as far away as Crescent City, Calif. Seiche waves generated by that earthquake reached runup heights of 20-30 feet on some lakes in Alaska, and water-level fluctuations were recorded on streams, reservoirs, lakes, and swimming pools in States bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Waves generated by submarine sliding struck violently at a number of places during or immediately after the quake and were the major cause of loss of life and damage to property. Slide-generated waves probably would have a higher destructive potential in southeastern Alaska than either tsunami waves or seiche waves because of their possibly higher local runups and because they can hit the shores almost without warning during or immediately after an earthquake. Nonearthquake-related geologic hazards, although generally far less dramatic than those related to earthquakes, tend to occur so much more frequently or persistently that their aggregate effects can be significant. Three kinds of geologic hazards of this type are discussed: (1) nonearthquake-induced landsliding and subaqueous sliding, (2) flooding, and (3) land uplift. The potential for nonearthquake-triggered landsliding in southeastern Alaska ranges widely from place to place. Past sliding generally furnishes the clue in the prediction of where and in what materials future sliding will occur. Fast-moving rockslides, debris slides, and mudflows can be expected to occur from time to time on steep slopes and be highly destructive to highways, power plants, pipelines, buildings, and other facilities located on a slope or at its base. Present slow downslope movement of talus can be expected to continue at the same general rate unless conditions are changed by man or there are climatic changes. Snow and debris avalanches can be especially hazardous during winter months. Long-inactive landslides may be triggered into renewed activity or new slides may be created by man-induced modifications. Accelerated slope erosion and debris flows may follow large-scale clearing and cutting of timber. Subaqueous sliding can be expected to occur periodically along fronts of deltas and on other oversteepened underwater slopes. Floods have been common in parts of southeastern Alaska because of heavy precipitation and rapid runoff from steep slopes with resulting heavy damage to roads and other facilities. Continued damage can be expected in the future unless more remedial measures are taken. Current uplift of land in southeastern Alaska, although probably not affecting man significantly in a short period of time, may have some adverse long-term effects. These long-term effects should be borne in mind when facilities such as docks and boat harbors are constructed on or near the shore, where there is a critical relation between height of land and water.

Alaska↗

Interim report on petroleum resource potential and geologic hazards in the outer continental shelf of the Gulf of Alaska Tertiary province

The potential for discovering large accumulations of petroleum on the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Alaska Tertiary Province cannot be evaluated with much confidence at present because of the inadequacies of the available offshore geological and geophysical data. The 22 deep test wells that have been drilled since 1954 have been unsuccessful because structure is complex and because suitable reservoir rocks have not been found in favorable structural positions. Although it is possible that the factors controlling accumulation of petroleum may improve offshore, regional stratigraphic and structural considerations together with the limited geophysical data suggest that this is not necessarily the case. Extrapolation of onshore geology together with the limited amount of marine geophysical data, indicate that the eastern Gulf of Alaska Outer Continental Shelf is geologically complex and consists of several areas with markedly differing structural styles and petroleum potential.

Alaska↗

Geotechnical description of four Mississippi Delta soil borings

The submerged portion of the Mississippi Delta complex forms an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of rapid deposition. One of the most obvious of these effects is the mass movements of sediments. Slump and slide signatures, mudflow characteristics, and evidence for creep are all found in abundance on the delta platform. These types of features have been studied by Colemen and Wright (1974) with regard to form and by Garrison (1974) with regard to their spatial distribution. Assembling these authors' findings, it is clear that the entire offshore zone contiguous with the Mississippi River is a myriad of geological action. This situation is indeed stimulating to the sedimentologist, yet it represents a nightmare to the foundation engineer. Emplacing offshore structures in such an environment is a most difficult task, particularly since the high degree of local variability dictates that each case must be handled separately. It is under these circumstances that a marriage between geology and engineering is most fruitful, for determining the relationships between the sedimentological processes and the engineering properties is satisfying to parties from both disciplines. This, then, is the underlying objective of the Mississippi Delta research project. By investigating the instability in a geologic sense, it is hoped that many of the engineering problems will become more soluble and that extrapolation and prediction will become more realistic.

Mississippi Delta↗

Surface sedimentary units of the Gulf of Alaska continental shelf: Montague Island to Yakutat Bay

Four major sedimentary units occur on the sea floor of the continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Alaska. These units, defined on the basis of seismic and sedimentologic data, are: (1) Holocene sediments, (2) Holocene mind moraines, C3) Quaternary glacial marine sediments, and (4) Tertiary and Pleistocene lithified deposits. A wedge of Holocene fine sand to clayey silt covers most of the inner shelf, reaching maximum thicknesses of about 350 m seaward of the Copper River and about 200 m seaward of Icy Bay. Holocene end moraines are found at the mouth of Icy Bay, south of Bering Glacier, and at the mouth of Yakutat Bay. Quaternary glacial marine sediments are found in a narrow arc that borders, on the north and west side of Tart Bank and in a large arc 20 km or more offshore that parallels the shoreline between Kayak Island and Yakutat Bay. Tertiary or Pleistocene stratified sedimentary rocks, which in profile commonly are folded, faulted, and truncated, crop out on Tarr Bank, offshore of Montague Island, and in several localities southeast and southwest of Cape Yakataga. The lack of Holocene cover on Tarr Bank and Middleton, Kayak and Montague Island platforms may be due to the scouring action of swift bottom currents and large storm waves. West of Kayak Island the Copper River is the primary source of Holocene sediment. East of Kayak Island the major sediment sources are streams draining the larger ice fields, notably, the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers. Transport of bottom and suspended sediment is predominantly to the west. If deglaciation of the shelf was completed by 10,000 years B.P., maximum rates of accumulation of Holocene sediment on the inner shelf may be as high as 10-35 m per 1,000 years.

Open-File Report↗

Federal onshore oil and gas lease bonus bids, 1972-1977: Statistical studies

We studied the statistical behavior of Federal onshore oil and gas lease bonus bids. Like offshore bids, these bids exhibited (a) occasional occurrences of low, noise bids, (b) apparent lognormality, (c) standard deviations (using natural logarithms) close to one, (d) apparent disparities between money left on the table given random lognormal bids consistent with flinching, and (e) wide ranges of aggressive and conservative biases of bidders in individual sales. In fact, the only substantive difference found was a far lesser proportion of joint bidding and larger company bidders bidding for these onshore leases which tended to receive lower bids than offshore bids.

Open-File Report↗

Impact of coastal processes on resource development with an example from Icy Bay, Alaska

The coastline of Alaska is dynamic and continually readjusting to changes in the many processes that operate in the coastal zone. Because of this dynamic nature, special consideration must be made in planning for development, and. caution must be exercised in site selection for facilities to be emplaced in the coastal zone. All types of coastal processes from continuously active normal processes to the low frequency-high intensity rare event must be considered. Site-specific evaluation-s considering the broad range of possible processes must precede initiation of development. An example of the relation between coastal processes and a proposed resource treatment facility is presented for Icy Bay, Alaska. Icy Bay is the only sheltered bay near many of the offshore tracts leased for petroleum exploration in the 1976 northern Gulf of Alaska OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) lease sale. Consequently, it has been selected as a primary onshore staging site for the support of offshore exploration and development. The environment of Icy Bay has many potentially hazardous features, including a submarine moraine at the bay mouth and actively calving glaciers at the bay's head which produce many icebergs. But most significant from the point of view of locating onshore facilities and pipeline corridors are the high rates of shoreline erosion and sediment deposition. If pipelines or any onshore staging facilities are to be placed in the coastal areas of Icy Bay, then the dynamic changes in shoreline position must be considered so that man-made structures will not be eroded away or be silted in before the completion of development.

Open-File Report↗

The subsurface geology of the Florida-Hatteras shelf, slope, and inner Blake Plateau

The structure and stratigraphy of the Florida-Hatteras Slope and inner Blake Plateau was studied by means of 4,780 km of single-channel air gun seismic reflection profiles. Control for the seismic stratigraphy is provided by correlating reflecting units and paleontologically dated stratigraphic units identified in offshore wells and dredge hauls. Many Tertiary unconformities exist, and major regional unconformities at the end of the Oligocene and in the late Paleocene are mapped. Reflecting surfaces believed to represent the tops of the Cretaceous, Paleocene, and Oligocene extend throughout the region. Upper Cretaceous (pre-Maastrichtian) rocks on the southeastern side of the Carolina Platform form a large seaward-facing progradational wedge. The Upper Cretaceous rocks in the Southeast Georgia Embayment, are seismically transparent and on the inner Blake Plateau are cut by numerous small faults, perhaps due to compaction. Within the survey area relatively flat-lying Maastrichtian and Paleocene strata show no evidence that a feature similar to the present Florida-Hatteras Slope existed at the beginning of the Tertiary. Late Paleocene erosion, related to the initiation of the Gulf Stream flow, probably developed this regional unconformity. Eocene and Oligocene sediments landward of the present Gulf Stream form a thick sequence of seaward-dipping progradational beds. A seaward progradational wedge of Miocene to Holocene age covers a regionally traceable unconformity, which separates the Oligocene from the Miocene sediments. Under and seaward of the present Gulf Stream, the Eocene and younger sediment supply was much smaller and the buildup is comparatively insignificant. The difference in accumulation rates in the Eocene and younger sediments, landward and seaward of the Gulf Stream, is responsible for the Florida-Hatteras Slope. Tertiary isopach maps suggest that there is a well developed triangular depocenter under the shelf. The edges of the depocenter correspond with magnetic anomalies and it is suggested that the depocenter is related to differential subsidence during the Tertiary across older crustal structures. The Eocene and Oligocene units contain the aquifer onshore, and the aquifer probably remains in these units offshore. With this assumption the potential aquifer has been identified and traced under the shelf and slope.

Florida-Hatteras shelf, slope, and inner Blake Pla↗

Petroleum potential, environmental geology, and the technology for exploration and development of the Kodiak lease sale area #61

The Kodiak lease area is along a convergent ocean margin where active subduction is probably the greatest single influence on the geology. This influence is indicated by the Aleutian Trench, the Aleutian chain of volcanoes, and a well developed Benioff zone of earthquakes. Crustal structure under the Kodiak Shelf is intermediate between continental and oceanic. The thickness of sedimentary rock is 8 ± 3 km, which is greater than beneath the island. The proposed lease—sale area is on a submerged shelf extending 100 km or more seaward from the Kodiak group of islands, and it is more than 400 km long. The Kodiak Shelf still retains a glacial topography which has been modified by tectonically uplifted banks along the shelf edge and across the shelf. These banks are readily detectable signs of recent tectonism. Not so easily detectable are three deep offshore Neogene basins formed by depression of an unsampled presumed Paleogene sedimentary section. The basin floors have subsided 5 to 7 km since middle (?) Miocene time; the basins are filled with late Miocene and younger sediment that is only gently deformed. A sudden increase in seismic velocity occurs across the contact between the basin fill and the presumed Paleogene rocks that underlie it. This discontinuity in seismic velocity, the smooth character of the basin surface, and the truncation of dipping beds beneath it, are the basis for inferring subaerial erosion of the Paleogene section. If this inference is correct, the structure in some places requires at least 3000 m of subsidence followed by an uplift of even greater magnitude in Neogene time. The vertical tectonism offshore might produce reservoir rock and different source rock than encountered onshore.

Alaska↗

Research and development program; Conservation Division Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas operations; Technical report 1981

As a result of recommendations several years ago from the National Academy of Sciences, the University of Oklahoma, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Geological Survey has embarked upon a program of research and development to provide the technological insights needed for its regulatory operations offshore—operations which provide assurances to the public for safety and for the prevention of pollution in oil and gas drilling and production. These clear objectives are, therefore, those of the research program, not the economics of operations, which are of concern to industry. The Program is a contract research program and is an integral part of the Conservation Division. It is a focal point for deriving possible solutions from the university community, private industry, and the Federal laboratory system for identified offshore operational problems. This vast interdisciplinary body of science and technology provides the kind of research needed by the Division in its Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) operations which involve such problematic areas as structural dynamics, fluid flow, and geotechnology. The Program encourages innovation and creativity which can be accomplished only by talented scientists and engineers who are dedicated to man's endeavor to make breakthroughs in science and technology. Because the Division's mission is operational, in a sense like the U.S. Navy, the R&D Program must progress in a timely manner even though technological advances cannot really be scheduled. As the Navy's Office of Naval Research (ONR) has so successfully coped with the seeming dichotomy of anticipating the occurrence of innovations, so must the Conservation Division. Thus, USGS, like ONR, makes use of the unsolicited proposal and the best effort contract to accomplish its objectives. Good science and technology can only be accomplished when several variables converge: a talented investigator doing his own research, which happens to coincide with our needs, availability of resources, time scales, etc. Our task is to "beat the bushes" so that these people come to us with their innovative ideas and concepts. They have done so by learning of our interests through announcements of the Program in the Federal Register, reading reports which emanate from the Program, and by attending our seminars.

Open-File Report↗

Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2-effects of pumping on water levels and water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basins

From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the southern part of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin. The water-level declines are the result of increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The increase in municipal pumping was part of a basin-testing program to determine the usable quantity of ground water in storage. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines in the main water-bearing zones to altitudes below sea level. Consequently, the ground-water basin is threatened with saltwater intrusion if the present pumpage is maintained or increased. Data indicate that saltwater intrusion has degraded the quality of water yielded from six coastal wells. Chloride concentrations in the most recent samples from coastal wells ranged from about 250 to 3,800 milligrams per liter. Four of the wells yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Previous investigators believed that saltwater intrusion was limited to the shallow part of the aquifer directly adjacent to the coast. The possibility of saltwater intrusion into the deeper water-bearing deposits in the aquifer was thought to be remote because an offshore fault truncates these deeper deposits against consolidated rocks on the seaward side of the fault. Results of this study indicate, however, that ocean water has intruded into the deeper water-bearing deposits to a much greater extent than in the shallow part of the aquifer. Apparently the offshore fault is not an effective barrier to saltwater intrusion.

California↗

Geohydrologic units of the coastal lowlands aquifer system, south-central United States

The coastal lowlands aquifer system is one of the three regional aquifer systems studied as part of the Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA). The coastal lowlands aquifer system underlies about 160,000 square miles of the coastal areas of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and westernmost Florida, and nearby offshore areas; the aquifer system is composed of sediments of Oligocene age and younger. The sediments consist predominantly of interbedded sand, silt, and clay with minor amounts of lignite and limestone. The average thickness of the sediments is about 6,000 feet, with a maximum thickness of more than 18,000 feet occurring offshore from southern Louisiana. The base of the coastal lowlands aquifer system is the top of the Vicksburg-Jackson confining unit, which is a massive clay that represents the last major transgression of the sea. A zone of abnormally high fluid pressure (geopressured zone) is present above the top of the Vicksburg-Jackson confining unit onshore in a narrow band along the coast of Texas and Louisiana and on the Continental Shelf. Where the geopressured zone is Present, it is considered to be the base of the coastal lowlands aquifer system. The sediments in the coastal lowlands aquifer system are divided into five Permeable zones and two confining units. The permeable zones are not separated by intervening, regionally mappable confining units in about 64 percent of the study area. In much of the area boundaries between permeable zones were extended, as a constant proportion of the total aquifer system thickness, from areas with hydraulic-head data to areas without such data. Average sand percentage of the permeable zones ranges from about 40 percent to more than 60 percent. However, the areal distribution of sand is variable within and among Permeable zones. A lobate pattern of greater sand percentages is typical of the Permeable zones, and all zones except one have at least one area with sand percentage greater than 80 percent. Data that are useful for quantitative analysis of regional ground-water flow in the coastal lowlands aquifer system are presented in map format. Included for each of the five permeable zones are maps of altitude of the top, thickness, sand percentage, and aggregate thickness of sand. Included for each of the two confining units are maps showing altitude of the top, and thickness of the unit.

Open-File Report↗

Circulation and effluent dilution modeling in Massachusetts Bay : model implementation, verification and results

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed as part of a cooperative U.S. Geological Survey/Massachusetts Water Resources Authority program to study contaminated sediment accumulation and transport in Massachusetts Bay. This report details the development of the model and assesses how well the model represents observed currents and water properties in the bay. It also summarizes circulation and comparative effluent dilution simulations from existing and future Boston sewage outfalls over a three-year period from October 1, 1989 to December 31, 1992. The ECOM-si model, a semi-implicit version of the Blumberg and Mellor (1987) Estuarine, Coastal and Ocean Model, is shown to reproduce many of the important hydrodynamical features of Massachusetts Bay: the seasonal evolution of the pycnocline, the mean flow pattern, and the strength of sub-tidal current fluctuations. Throughout the simulation period, during both vertically well-mixed and stratified conditions, the seasonal statistics of observed currents are well-represented by the model. The model is therefore appropriate for studying the average dilution of sewage effluent and other continuously discharged substances over seasonal time scales. The ability of the model to reproduce individual flow events varies with season and location within the bay. Flow events during unstratified conditions in western Massachusetts Bay are particularly well-represented, indicating that the model is appropriate for studying processes such as the transport of suspended material from the future outfall site due to winter storms. Individual flow events during stratified conditions and in the offshore Stellwagen Bank region, however, are less well-represented due to small length scales (caused by upwelling and river discharge events) coupled with insufficient data to specify open boundary forcing from the Gulf of Maine. Thus while the model might be used to answer issues such as the frequency with which Gulf of Maine river plumes visit the new outfall site, attempting to predict whether a particular plume would visit the outfall site could be problematic. Comparative simulations of effluent discharged from the existing and future Boston outfalls show that the region of relatively high effluent concentrations (1 part effluent to 200 parts sea water) is significantly smaller with the future outfall and is limited to Western Massachusetts Bay during both unstratified and stratified seasons. The region of even higher concentration (1 part effluent to 50 parts sea water) that covers much of Boston Harbor with the existing outfall is non-existent in the future outfall simulation. Additional simulations of chlorination plant failure predict that the offshore location of the future outfall will lead to dramatically lower levels of pathogens at area beaches.

Open-File Report↗

Composition and properties of the Pierre Shale and equivalent rocks, northern Great Plains region

The Pierre Shale and equivalent rocks of Late Cretaceous age consist in the east-central Dakotas of several hundred feet of offshore-marine shale and minor marl; in west-central Montana near the sediment source the equivalents of the Pierre Shale consist of several thousand feet of volcanic-rich and mostly nonmarine sediments; and in the area between, both types of rock are separated by tongues of nearshore-marine siltstone and sandstone that mark three major transgressions of the sea across the area. The major-, minor-, and trace-element composition was determined for 226 samples of these rocks, and the mineralogical composition was determined for 1,350 samples. Slurry pH, Atterberg limits, and grain and bulk densities were determined on some samples. The arithmetic mean, in percent, and standard deviation (in parentheses) of major and minor elements, mostly in shale and siltstone and excluding the 23 chemically analyzed bentonite samples, are as follows: SiO2 60.8 (7.9) Al2O3 14.4 (2.5) Fe2O3 3.4 (1.4) FeO 1.1 (1.2) MgO 2.2 (1.0) CaO 2.7 (0.48) Na2O 1.1 (0.56) K2O 2.4 (0.57) H2O- 3.2 (1.3) H2O+ 4.3 (1.2) TiO2 0.58 (0.12) P2O5 0.14 (0.073) S 0.37 (1.1) F 0.71 (0.15) Cl 0.16 (0.024) CO2 2.1 (7.0) C, organic 0.94 (1.8) The mean and standard deviation of minerals as determined by X-ray methods, excluding bentonite samples, is as follows: clay minerals, 53 (20); quartz, 24 (13); cristobalite, 1 (5); potassium-feldspar, 1 (2); plagioclase, 6 (7); anorthite content from 20 to 40 percent; calcite, 5 (14); dolomite, 4 (7); organic matter, 1 (2); and sparsely scattered gypsum, jarosite, pyrite, zeolites, augite, siderite, and probably minor amounts of hydrated iron-manganese (Fe-Mn) oxides. The mean and standard deviation of the clay-mineral fraction is as follows: mixed-layer illite-smectite, 70 (20); illite, 16 (9); chlorite, 3 (6); and kaolinite, 9 (13). The mixed-layer clay, except in the Montana disturbed belt, is a random interlayering of 20 to 60 percent illite-type layers, about 35 percent beidelite-type layers, and the remainder montmorillonite-type layers; chlorite or vermiculite layers are rare. Most bentonite differs from shale in its small quartz content, rarely more than a few percent, in the more calcic composition and hightemperature thermal state of its plagioclase, and in its rare kaolinite, near absence of chlorite, and lack of illite-either free or mixed layered with smectite. Bentonite commonly consists of more than 90 percent smectite in which montmorillonite is interlayered with a smaller amount of beidellite. The clay-mineral composition of marine rock, including proportions of layers in the dominant illite-smectite, averages about the same as in the nonmarine rock, though in the latter the composition is more variable. The average content of major chemical constituents also is closely similar, partly because the large clay content of fine-grained offshore-marine shale is balanced by the small clay content of nearshore-marine siltstone and sandstone. In addition, the alumina and alkalic elements in an average of 10 percent more clay in marine rock are partly balanced by these constituents in the 5 percent more feldspar in nonmarine rock. Much of the observed regional and stratigraphic variation in maj or constituents is the result of the three major east-west migrations of the depositional sites of nearshore-marine sandstone and siltstone. Dolomite is found almost exclusively in relatively coarse-grained rock, particularly in nearshore-marine siltstone where diagenetic dolomite is expected, but it is found almost as frequently in nonmarine siltstone. Amounts of minor constituents are nearly equal in marine and nonmarine rocks, except that pyrite and consequently sulfur are relatively sparse in nonmarine rock. Average amounts of organic matter found in marine and nonmarine rocks are nearly identical. However, organic matter in nonmarine rock occurs almost entirely in volumetric

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana↗