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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources

Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in the American Southwest. Since the frequency and severity of hydrologic droughts and other hydroclimatic events are of critical importance to the ecology and rapidly growing human population of this region, knowledge of long-term natural hydroclimatic variability is valuable for resource managers and policy-makers. An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 824–2007 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern white pine) and Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) for the Jemez Mountains in Northern New Mexico. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1896–2007 show a high level of skill, and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (>50%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1896–2007). A recent segment of the reconstruction (2000–2006) emerges as the driest 7-year period sensed by the trees in the entire record. That this period was only moderately dry in precipitation anomaly likely indicates accentuated stress from other factors, such as warmer temperatures. Correlation field maps of actual and reconstructed October–June total precipitation, sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights show characteristics that are similar to those indicative of El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 1184-year reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in Northern New Mexico, is useful to guide expectations of future variability, aids sustainable water management, provides scenarios for drought planning and as inputs for hydrologic models under a broader range of conditions than those provided by historical climate records.

New Mexico↗

Assessing the vulnerability of military installations in the coterminous United States to potential biome shifts resulting from rapid climate change

Climate change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge future military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, invasive species, etc. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low - B1, moderate - A1B and high - A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess vulnerability of installations (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature relative to historical conditions. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of military training and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased atmospheric temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in the coming decades in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connectic↗

A conceptual framework for estimation of initial emergency food and water resource requirements in disasters

Many households lack the necessary food and water supplies to sustain themselves for more than three days during a disaster. Community vulnerability assessments can be used to identify households with more pressing needs for emergency food and water resources. It is critical that these assessments include the interaction between physical impacts to lifeline infrastructure and the social vulnerabilities of food and water insecurity to prioritize, allocate, and distribute emergency resources. In this paper, we review and synthesize relevant literature to propose a new multidisciplinary conceptual framework of community vulnerability assessment for estimating initial emergency food and water resource requirements in a developed country. Using the framework as a guide, we illustrate its practical application through a simplified, deterministic model of initial resource requirements in disaster response, and offer a quantitative, comprehensive description of its application within the geophysical hazard context of the “ShakeOut” scenario—a major M w 7.8 earthquake on California's San Andreas fault , occurring within the Los Angeles Basin, CA (USA) region. Model results estimate that 999,027 households (2,947,130 residents) will require initial emergency food and water resource requirements. Estimates include about 6 million meals and 9 million liters of water, concentrated in Lancaster-Palmdale, El Monte-Baldwin Park, East Los Angeles-Downey in Los Angeles County, the Coachella Valley (Riverside County), and in populated areas of San Bernardino County. A sensitivity analysis of social vulnerability interactions with utility service outages investigates the influence of food insecurity on the amplification of resource needs. This study establishes fundamental knowledge at the nexus of natural hazards, critical infrastructure disruptions, and social vulnerability by providing initial estimates of emergency resource demand while advancing the understanding of social inequity in emergency resource access.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

Executive Summary The Borrego Valley is a small valley (110 square miles) in the northeastern part of San Diego County, California. Although the valley is about 60 miles northeast of city of San Diego, it is separated from the Pacific Ocean coast by the mountains to the west and is mostly within the boundaries of Anza-Borrego Desert State Park. From the time the basin was first settled, groundwater has been the only source of water to the valley. Groundwater is used for agricultural, recreational, and municipal purposes. Over time, groundwater withdrawal through pumping has exceeded the amount of water that has been replenished, causing groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet in some parts of the basin. Continued pumping has resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, dry wells, changes in water quality, and loss of natural groundwater discharge. As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative study of the Borrego Valley with the Borrego Water District (BWD) in 2009. The purpose of the study was to develop a greater understanding of the hydrogeology of the Borrego Valley Groundwater Basin (BVGB) and to provide tools to help evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of future development. The objectives of the study were to (1) improve the understanding of groundwater conditions and land subsidence, (2) incorporate this improved understanding into a model that would assist in the management of the groundwater resources in the Borrego Valley, and (3) use this model to test several management scenarios. This model provides the capability for the BWD and regional stakeholders to quantify the relative benefits of various options for increasing groundwater storage. The study focuses on the period 1945–2010, with scenarios 50 years into the future. This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

California↗

Water-resources and land-surface deformation evaluation studies at Fort Irwin National Training Center, Mojave Desert, California

The U.S. Army Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), in the Mojave Desert, obtains all of its potable water supply from three groundwater basins (Irwin, Langford, and Bicycle) within the NTC boundaries (fig. 1; California Department of Water Resources, 2003). Because of increasing water demands at the NTC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army, completed several studies to evaluate water resources in the developed and undeveloped groundwater basins underlying the NTC. In all of the developed basins, groundwater withdrawals exceed natural recharge, resulting in water-level declines. However, artificial recharge of treated wastewater has had some success in offsetting water-level declines in Irwin Basin. Additionally, localized water-quality changes have occurred in some parts of Irwin Basin as a result of human activities (i.e., wastewater disposal practices, landscape irrigation, and/or leaking pipes). As part of the multi-faceted NTC-wide studies, traditional datacollection methods were used and include lithological and geophysical logging at newly drilled boreholes, hydrologic data collection (i.e. water-level, water-quality, aquifer tests, wellbore flow). Because these data cover a small portion of the 1,177 square-mile (mi2 ) NTC, regional mapping, including geologic, gravity, aeromagnetic, and InSAR, also were done. In addition, ground and airborne electromagnetic surveys were completed and analyzed to provide more detailed subsurface information on a regional, base-wide scale. The traditional and regional ground and airborne data are being analyzed and will be used to help develop preliminary hydrogeologic framework and groundwater-flow models in all basins. This report is intended to provide an overview of recent water-resources and land-surface deformation studies at the NTC.

California↗

Ecological harm and economic damages of chemical contamination to linked aquatic-terrestrial food webs: A study-design tool for practitioners

Contamination of aquatic ecosystems can have cascading effects on terrestrial consumers by altering the availability and quality of aquatic insect prey. Comprehensive assessment of these indirect food-web effects of contaminants on natural resources and their associated services necessitates using both ecological and economic tools. In the present study we present an aquatic-terrestrial assessment tool (AT2), including ecological and economic decision trees, to aid practitioners and researchers in designing contaminant effect studies for linked aquatic-terrestrial insect-based food webs. The tool is tailored to address the development of legal claims by the US Department of the Interior's Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration Program, which aims to restore natural resources injured by oil spills and hazardous substance releases into the environment. Such cases require establishing, through scientific inquiry, the existence of natural resource injury as well as the determination of the monetary or in-kind project-based damages required to restore this injury. However, this tool is also useful to researchers interested in questions involving the effects of contaminants on linked aquatic-terrestrial food webs. Stylized cases exemplify how application of AT2 can help practitioners and researchers design studies when the contaminants present at a site are likely to lead to injury of terrestrial aerial insectivores through loss of aquatic insect prey and/or dietary contaminant exposure. Designing such studies with ecological endpoints and economic modeling inputs in mind will increase the relevance and cost-effectiveness of studies, which can in turn improve the outcomes of cases and studies involving the ecological effects of contaminants on food webs.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Statistical detection of flow regime changes in horizontal hydraulically fractured Bakken oil wells

The application of horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells for producing oil from low permeability formations has changed the face of the North American oil industry. One feature of the production profile of many such wells is a transition from transient linear oil flow to boundary-dominated flow. The identification of the time of this transition is important for the calibration of models that forecast the well’s future production and the expected ultimate recovery. It is preferable that such models generally use data from the boundary-dominated flow regime for parameter calibration. Accurate well production forecasts are needed for operational decisions, long-term planning, commercial transactions, regulatory proceedings, and asset valuation. Petroleum engineers frequently make the call on the transition point based on subjective visual interpretations of log–log plots for individual wells. This is time-consuming and is generally not repeatable by other analysts. This note evaluates statistical approaches that can serve as alternatives to the subjective visual interpretations. Specifically, the predictive performance of production models calibrated with boundary-dominated data based on transition dates calculated with constrained nonlinear least squares and Bayesian regressions was very close to that obtained using the visual method, suggesting that statistical approaches may indeed be constructed to replace less objective visual approaches without loss of accuracy.

Natural Resources Research↗

Multireaction equilibrium geothermometry: A sensitivity analysis using data from the Lower Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, USA

A multireaction chemical equilibria geothermometry (MEG) model applicable to high-temperature geothermal systems has been developed over the past three decades. Given sufficient data, this model provides more constraint on calculated reservoir temperatures than classical chemical geothermometers that are based on either the concentration of silica (SiO 2 ), or the ratios of cation concentrations. A set of 23 chemical analyses from Ojo Caliente Spring and 22 analyses from other thermal features in the Lower Geyser Basin of Yellowstone National Park are used to examine the sensitivity of calculated reservoir temperatures using the GeoT MEG code (Spycher et al. 2013, 2014) to quantify the effects of solute concentrations, degassing, and mineral assemblages on calculated reservoir temperatures. Results of our analysis demonstrate that the MEG model can resolve reservoir temperatures within approximately ±15°C, and that natural variation in fluid compositions represents a greater source of variance in calculated reservoir temperatures than variations caused by analytical uncertainty (assuming ~5% for major elements). The analysis also suggests that MEG calculations are particularly sensitive to variations in silica concentration, the concentrations of the redox species Fe(II) and H 2 S, and that the parameters defining steam separation and CO 2 degassing from the liquid may be adequately determined by numerical optimization. Results from this study can provide guidance for future applications of MEG models, and thus provide more reliable information on geothermal energy resources during exploration.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the Cedar River alluvial aquifer, Linn County, Iowa, 1990–2019

Alluvial aquifers in Iowa have more wells with nitrate exceeding drinking-water standards than other aquifers; are susceptible to contamination by organic contaminants; and have high concentrations of naturally occurring iron and manganese in depositional areas that contain abundant organic matter. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, studied the Cedar River alluvial aquifer in Linn County, Iowa, from 1990 to 2019 to understand the effect of municipal pumping on spatial and temporal hydrologic and water-quality variability. The Cedar River alluvial aquifer is the source of water for the city of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Withdrawal of large quantities of water for municipal and industrial supply has altered the normal flow of water in the alluvial aquifer. Pumping induces flow from the Cedar River and the underlying bedrock aquifer into the alluvial aquifer. Water quality in the alluvial aquifer varies along the Cedar River. Changes in nitrate, ammonia, manganese, and iron in the alluvial aquifer are seen as the upstream free-flowing reach of the Cedar River transitions to a partially regulated downstream reach, likely because of differences in reduction-oxidation conditions in the aquifer, which are controlled by infiltration from the Cedar River under normal conditions and when wells are being pumped. Nitrate, normally found in oxygenated environments, had the highest concentrations in the most upstream wells in the Seminole well field and the lowest concentrations in the most downstream wells in the East well field. In contrast, ammonia, manganese, and iron, normally found in greatest abundance in anoxic (reducing) conditions, had the greatest concentrations in the most downstream wells. Additionally, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen concentrations in wells were substantially less and manganese concentrations were greater in production wells near backwater wetlands in contrast to wells near the Cedar River. Temporal variability in water quality in the alluvial aquifer was driven by pumping that increased flow from the Cedar River into the alluvial aquifer and ultimately led to changes in reduction-oxidation conditions of the aquifer. Increasing dissolved nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen concentrations in the Cedar River from 1990 to 2019 were mirrored in the alluvial aquifer. Anoxic conditions are prevalent in the alluvial aquifer next to the Cedar River when the aquifer is not under pumping stress. However, production well pumping caused induced infiltration of oxygenated river water into the aquifer resulting in increased dissolved nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen concentrations and pesticides and decreased naturally occurring dissolved iron and manganese. Hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the Cedar River alluvial aquifer from 1990 to 2019 provide baseline conditions needed to evaluate the effects of current and future nutrient reduction efforts and land-use changes in the Cedar River Basin on water quality of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and its source water, the Cedar River. This summary and analysis provide information that can assist the City of Cedar Rapids Utilities Water Department in managing groundwater resources, and provides information that could be used develop a groundwater-quality model to characterize variability over larger areas of the alluvial aquifer, allowing water providers to plan for future water needs of their users.

Iowa↗

Use of noninvasive genetics to assess nest and space use by white-tailed eagles

Movement and space use are important components of animal interactions with the environment. However, for hard-to-monitor raptor species, there are substantial gaps in our understanding of these key determinants. We used noninvasive genetic tools to evaluate the details of space use over a 3-yr period by White-tailed Eagles ( Haliaeetus albicilla ) at the Naurzum Zapovednik in northern Kazakhstan. We genotyped, at 10 microsatellite markers and one mitochondrial marker, 859 eagle feathers and assigned naturally shed feathers to individuals. We identified 124 White-tailed Eagles, including both members of 5–10 pairs per year, and were able to monitor birds across years. Distances between eagle nests and hunting perches were always greater than nearest neighbor distances, eagles never used the closest available hunting perch, and hunting perches were always shared with other eagles. When eagles switched nests between years, the nests they chose were almost always well outside the space that theory predicted they defended the prior year. Our data are inconsistent with classical territorial and colonial models of resource use; they more closely resemble semi-colonial behavior. It is unlikely that standard methods of animal tracking (e.g., marking and telemetry), would have provided a similarly cost-effective mechanism to gain these insights into spatial and temporal aspects of eagle behavior. When combined with existing information on space use of other local species, these data suggest that partitioning of spatial resources among White-tailed Eagles and other eagles at the Zapovednik may be facilitated by the alternative strategies of space use they employ.

Naurzum Zapovednik↗

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Hawai'i↗

The National Map: from geography to mapping and back again

When the means of production for national base mapping were capital intensive, required large production facilities, and had ill-defined markets, Federal Government mapping agencies were the primary providers of the spatial data needed for economic development, environmental management, and national defense. With desktop geographic information systems now ubiquitous, source data available as a commodity from private industry, and the realization that many complex problems faced by society need far more and different kinds of spatial data for their solutions, national mapping organizations must realign their business strategies to meet growing demand and anticipate the needs of a rapidly changing geographic information environment. The National Map of the United States builds on a sound historic foundation of describing and monitoring the land surface and adds a focused effort to produce improved understanding, modeling, and prediction of land-surface change. These added dimensions bring to bear a broader spectrum of geographic science to address extant and emerging issues. Within the overarching construct of The National Map, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is making a transition from data collector to guarantor of national data completeness; from producing paper maps to supporting an online, seamless, integrated database; and from simply describing the Nation’s landscape to linking these descriptions with increased scientific understanding. Implementing the full spectrum of geographic science addresses a myriad of public policy issues, including land and natural resource management, recreation, urban growth, human health, and emergency planning, response, and recovery. Neither these issues nor the science and technologies needed to deal with them are static. A robust research agenda is needed to understand these changes and realize The National Map vision. Initial successes have been achieved. These accomplishments demonstrate the utility of The National Map to the Nation and give confidence in evolving its future applications.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Statistical approaches for modeling correlated grade and tonnage distributions and applications for mineral resource assessments

Correlations between grade and tonnage exist in mineral resource data compiled from published reports, but they are not always addressed during quantitative assessment of undiscovered mineral resources. Failure to account for correlated grade and tonnage distributions can result in geologically unrealistic assessment results. Current software tools simulate univariate ore tonnage and multivariate resource grades of undiscovered deposits independently. As a result, analysts are forced to rely on ad-hoc solutions to minimize the correlation issues by: 1) creating subsets of data with restricted criteria; 2) truncating grade and tonnage distributions; and 3) testing model robustness using exploratory data analysis. While these methods represent pragmatic solutions, the statistical solutions presented here provide additional options to address real correlations in grade and tonnage data used for mineral resource assessments. We present a modified version of the MapMark4 package in R that introduces two alternatives for modeling grade and tonnage distributions, consisting of a multivariate solution that accounts for correlations between ore tonnage and metal grades and an empirical solution that utilizes simple random sampling with replacement to reproduce coupled grades and tonnages from the input data. We present simulations for contained ore and metal for three case studies representing tungsten skarn, komatiite-hosted nickel, and sediment-hosted carbonate amagmatic zinc-lead (Mississippi Valley-type) deposits. Employing the methods presented here yields quantitative mineral resource assessment results that more closely reflect the empirical distributions of grades and tonnages observed in nature and expands the applicability of these tools for ongoing critical mineral resource assessments.

Applied Computing and Geosciences↗

Using state-and-transition modeling to account for imperfect detection in invasive species management

Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost–benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland–urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.

Arizona↗

Stratiform chromite deposit model

A new descriptive stratiform chromite deposit model was prepared which will provide a framework for understanding the characteristics of stratiform chromite deposits worldwide. Previous stratiform chromite deposit models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have been referred to as Bushveld chromium, because the Bushveld Complex in South Africa is the only stratified, mafic-ultramafic intrusion presently mined for chromite and is the most intensely researched. As part of the on-going effort by the USGS Mineral Resources Program to update existing deposit models for the upcoming national mineral resource assessment, this revised stratiform chromite deposit model includes new data on the geological, mineralogical, geophysical, and geochemical attributes of stratiform chromite deposits worldwide. This model will be a valuable tool in future chromite resource and environmental assessments and supplement previously published models used for mineral resource evaluation. Stratiform chromite deposits are found throughout the world, but the chromitite seams of the Bushveld Complex, South Africa, are the largest and most intensely researched. The chromite ore is located primarily in massive chromitite seams and, less abundantly, in disseminated chromite-bearing layers, both of which occur in the ultramafic section of large, layered mafic-ultramafic stratiform complexes. These mafic-ultramafic intrusions mainly formed in stable cratonic settings or during rift-related events during the Archean or early Proterozoic, although exceptions exist. The chromitite seams are cyclic in nature as well as laterally contiguous throughout the entire intrusion. Gangue minerals include olivine, pyroxenes (orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene), plagioclase, sulfides (pyrite, chalcopyrite, pyrrhotite, pentlandite, bornite), platinum group metals (mainly laurite, cooperite, braggite), and alteration minerals. A few deposits also contain rutile and ilmenite. The alteration phases include serpentine, chlorite, talc, magnetite, kaemmererite, uvarovite, hornblende, and carbonate minerals, such as calcite and dolomite. Stratiform chromite deposits are primarily hosted by peridotites, harzburgites, dunites, pyroxenites, troctolites, and anorthosites. Although metamorphism may have altered the ultramafic regions of layered intrusions postdeposition, only igneous processes are responsible for formation. From a diagnostic standpoint and for assessment purposes, they have no temporal or spatial relation to sedimentary rocks. The exact mechanisms responsible for the development of stratiform chromite deposits and the large, layered mafic-ultramafic intrusions where they are found are highly debated. The leading argument postulates that a parent magma mixed with a more primitive magma during magma chamber recharge. The partially differentiated magma could then be forced into the chromite stability field, resulting in the massive chromitite layers found in stratiform complexes. Contamination of the parent magma by localized assimilation of felsic country rock at the roof of the magma chamber has also been proposed as a mechanism of formation. Others suggest that changes in pressure or oxygen fugacity may be responsible for the occurrence of massive chromitite seams in layered mafic, ultramafic intrusions. The massive chromitite layers contain high levels of chromium and strong associations with platinum group elements. Anomalously high magnesium concentrations as well as low sodium, potassium, and phosphorus concentrations are also important geochemical features of stratiform chromite deposits. The presence of orthopyroxenite in many of the deposits suggests high silica and high magnesium concentrations in the parent magma. Most environmental concerns associated with the mining and processing of chromite ore focus on the solubility of chromium and its oxidation state. Although trivalent chromium (Cr 3+ ) is an essential micronutrient for humans, hexavalent chromium (Cr 6+ ) is highly toxic. Chromium-bearing solid phases that occur in the chromite ore-processing residue, for example, can effect the geochemical behavior and oxidation state of chromium in the environment.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Large-scale natural gradient tracer test in sand and gravel, Cape Cod, Massachusetts: 3. Hydraulic conductivity variability and calculated macrodispersivities

Hydraulic conductivity ( K ) variability in a sand and gravel aquifer on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, was measured and subsequently used in stochastic transport theories to estimate macrodispersivities. Nearly 1500 K measurements were obtained by borehole flowmeter tests and permeameter analyses of cores. The geometric mean for the flowmeter tests (0.11 cm/s) is similar to that estimated from other field tests. The mean for the permeameter tests (0.035 cm/s) is significantly lower, possibly because of compaction of the cores. The variance for the flowmeter (0.24) is also greater than that for the permeameter (0.14). Geostatistical analyses applying negative exponential models with and without nuggets reveal similar spatial correlation structures for the two data sets. Estimated correlation scales range from 2.9 to 8 m in the horizontal and from 0.18 to 0.38 m in the vertical. Estimates of asymptotic longitudinal dispersivity (b.35–0.78 m) are similar in magnitude to that observed in the natural gradient tracer test (0.96 m) previously conducted at this site.

Massachusetts↗

Simulation of flow and water quality of the Arroyo Colorado, Texas, 1989-99

A model parameter set for use with the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN watershed model was developed to simulate flow and water quality for selected properties and constituents for the Arroyo Colorado from the city of Mission to the Laguna Madre, Texas. The model simulates flow, selected water-quality properties, and constituent concentrations. The model can be used to estimate a total maximum daily load for selected properties and constituents in the Arroyo Colorado. The model was calibrated and tested for flow with data measured during 1989–99 at three streamflow-gaging stations. The errors for total flow volume ranged from -0.1 to 29.0 percent, and the errors for total storm volume ranged from -15.6 to 8.4 percent. The model was calibrated and tested for water quality for seven properties and constituents with 1989–99 data. The model was calibrated sequentially for suspended sediment, water temperature, biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, and orthophosphate. The simulated concentrations of the selected properties and constituents generally matched the measured concentrations available for the calibration and testing periods. The model was used to simulate total point- and nonpoint-source loads for selected properties and constituents for 1989–99 for urban, natural, and agricultural land-use types. About one-third to one-half of the biochemical oxygen demand and nutrient loads are from urban point and nonpoint sources, although only 13 percent of the total land use in the basin is urban.

Texas↗

An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed. Distinct basin characteristics were evaluated and selected for use on the basis of their theoretical relation to flow, results from previous studies, and the ability to reliably measure the basin characteristic using digital datasets and geographic information system (GIS) technology. The key basin characteristics determined or computed for each of the 39 basins upstream from the streamflow-gaging stations were drainage area, percent impervious area, main-channel slope based on the 10- and 85-percent length method, percentage of the basin area in storage (lakes, ponds, reservoirs, wetlands), the composite Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number estimated from a combination of the soil type data and land-use characteristics, and the streamflow variability index developed for the recently completed study of low-flow regression in Missouri. Characteristics of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution came from the next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) network. Procedures were developed for this study to convert the variable radar sweep rate into a 5-minute total rainfall hyetograph using data from the radar bin at the centroid of a given basin. Additional characteristics determined for each storm on the basin included the 5-day and 14-day antecedent rainfall, estimated from the mean of daily rainfall values from various rain gages in the area. The database of observed rainfall and runoff events for the 39 basins upstream from the streamflow-gaging stations was analyzed to compute the optimal storm-specific initial abstraction and constant loss values, as well as the time to peak, peak streamflow, and shape factor values of the GUH. The optimal storm-specific values were used to develop a regional regression equation for initial abstraction; conversely, the constant loss was estimated not by regression but from either a generalized or specific regional mean value. The optimal storm-specific values of GUH time to peak, GUH peak streamflow, and GUH shape factor were used to develop regression equations for the GUH. The regression equations for the GUH initially were tested alone, and then were combined with the appropriate regional regression equation for initial abstraction and both the generalized regional and specific regional mean constant loss values. For the GUH regression equations, the interquartile range was substantially smaller than the range spanned by the minimum and maximum values, which indicates most of the errors have much smaller variation, and the minimum and maximum values may be extreme outliers. The central tendency of the regressed errors for peak streamflow and runoff hydrograph volume were both approximately zero, which implies a generally unbiased estimation of these values. The mean and median of the regressed errors for time to peak streamflow were both small but greater than zero, which implies the GUH regression equations create a hydrograph that has a peak that is later in time than observed. Specifically, the regressed times indicate an offset of about 10 minutes, on average, from observed. The mean and median of the regressed errors for widths of the runoff hydrograph at 50 and 75 percent were less than zero, which implies the GUH tends to slightly underestimate these widths compared to the observed. The appropriate regional initial abstraction regression equation was combined with both the generalized and the specific regional mean constant loss values and the GUH regression equations. Both the generalized regional mean constant loss and specific regional mean constant loss forms of the basin-loss model worked equally well to model the observed runoff hydrograph based on the error analysis, and neither model seems to make a consistently better approximation. Both initial abstraction and constant loss models combined with the GUH regression equations were further validated using several storms available after the start of the project in early 2011 with similar but consistently higher error results. If these methods are used in an urban area in Missouri other than those examined in this study, advice to the user is given to consider using the generalized regional mean values. If these methods are used in an urban area that is a subbasin of one of the basins in this study, advice to the user is given to consider using the specific regional mean values. The rainfall-runoff pairs from the storm-specific GUH analysis were further analyzed against various basin and rainfall characteristics to develop equations to estimate the peak streamflow and flood volume based on a quantity of rainfall on the basin.

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