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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources
USGS2020

A hybrid approach for predictive soil property mapping using conventional soil survey data

Soil property maps are important for land management and earth systems modeling. A new hybrid point-disaggregation predictive soil property mapping strategy improved mapping in the Colorado River Basin, and can be applied to other areas with similar data (e.g. conterminous United States). This new approach increased sample size ~6-fold over past efforts. Random forests related environmental raster layers representing soil forming factors to samples to predict 15 soil properties (pH, texture fractions, rock, electrical conductivity, gypsum, CaCO3, sodium adsorption ratio, available water capacity, bulk density, erodibility, organic matter) at 7 depths, depth to restrictive layer, and surface rock size and cover. Cross-validations resulted in coefficient of determinations averaging 0.52, with a range of 0.20 to 0.76; and mean absolute errors ranged from 3% to 98% of training data averages with a mean of 41%. Uncertainty estimates were also developed by creating relative prediction intervals (RPIs) for the entire study area, which allow end users to evaluate uncertainty relative to original data distributions. Average error increased with higher RPI values (higher uncertainty), and areas with the highest RPI are consistently under-sampled, suggesting that additional sampling in these areas may improve prediction accuracy. Greater uncertainty was also observed in areas with shale parent materials and physiographic settings uncommon relative to the broader study area.

New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizo↗
USGS2012

Using geochemistry to identify the source of groundwater to Montezuma Well, a natural spring in Central Arizona, USA: Part 2

Montezuma Well is a unique natural spring located in a sinkhole surrounded by travertine. Montezuma Well is managed by the National Park Service, and groundwater development in the area is a potential threat to the water source for Montezuma Well. This research was undertaken to better understand the sources of groundwater to Montezuma Well. Strontium isotopes ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) indicate that groundwater in the recharge area has flowed through surficial basalts with subsequent contact with the underlying Permian aged sandstones and the deeper, karstic, Mississippian Redwall Limestone. The distinctive geochemistry in Montezuma Well and nearby Soda Springs (higher concentrations of alkalinity, As, B, Cl, and Li) is coincident with added carbon dioxide and mantle-sourced He. The geochemistry and isotopic data from Montezuma Well and Soda Springs allow for the separation of groundwater samples into four categories: (1) upgradient, (2) deep groundwater with carbon dioxide, (3) shallow Verde Formation, and (4) mixing zone. δ 18 O and δD values, along with noble gas recharge elevation data, indicate that the higher elevation areas to the north and east of Montezuma Well are the groundwater recharge zones for Montezuma Well and most of the groundwater in this portion of the Verde Valley. Adjusted groundwater age dating using likely 14 C and δ 13 C sources indicate an age for Montezuma Well and Soda Springs groundwaters at 5,400–13,300 years, while shallow groundwater in the Verde Formation appears to be older (18,900). Based on water chemistry and isotopic evidence, groundwater flow to Montezuma Well is consistent with a hydrogeologic framework that indicates groundwater flow by (1) recharge in higher elevation basalts to the north and east of Montezuma Well, (2) movement through the upgradient Permian and Mississippian units, especially the Redwall Limestone, and (3) contact with a basalt dike/fracture system that provides a mechanism for groundwater to flow to the surface. While the exact nature of the groundwater flow connections is still uncertain, the available data indicate that flow to Montezuma Well may be more susceptible to future groundwater development in the Redwall Limestone than from any other geologic unit. Overall, the shallow groundwater in the surrounding Verde Formation appears to be largely disconnected from deeper groundwater flowing to Montezuma Well.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

Routine screening of harmful microorganisms in beach sands: implications to public health

Beaches worldwide provide recreational opportunities to hundreds of millions of people and serve as important components of coastal economies. Beach water is often monitored for microbiological quality to detect the presence of indicators of human sewage contamination so as to prevent public health outbreaks associated with water contact. However, growing evidence suggests that beach sand can harbor microbes harmful to human health, often in concentrations greater than the beach water. Currently, there are no standards for monitoring, sampling, analyzing, or managing beach sand quality. In addition to indicator microbes, growing evidence has identified pathogenic bacteria, viruses, and fungi in a variety of beach sands worldwide. The public health threat associated with these populations through direct and indirect contact is unknown because so little research has been conducted relating to health outcomes associated with sand quality. In this manuscript, we present the consensus findings of a workshop of experts convened in Lisbon, Portugal to discuss the current state of knowledge on beach sand microbiological quality and to develop suggestions for standardizing the evaluation of sand at coastal beaches. The expert group at the “Microareias 2012” workshop recommends that 1) beach sand should be screened for a variety of pathogens harmful to human health, and sand monitoring should then be initiated alongside regular water monitoring; 2) sampling and analysis protocols should be standardized to allow proper comparisons among beach locations; and 3) further studies are needed to estimate human health risk with exposure to contaminated beach sand. Much of the manuscript is focused on research specific to Portugal, but similar results have been found elsewhere, and the findings have worldwide implications.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2007

Late Cenozoic Climate History of the Ross Embayment from the AND-1B Drill Hole: Culmination of Three Decades of Antarctic Margin Drilling

Because of the paucity of exposed rock, the direct physical record of Antarctic Cenozoic glacial history has become known only recently and then largely from offshore shelf basins through seismic surveys and drilling. The number of holes on the continental shelf has been small and largely confined to three areas (McMurdo Sound, Prydz Bay, and Antarctic Peninsula), but even in McMurdo Sound, where Oligocene and early Miocene strata are well cored, the late Cenozoic is poorly known and dated. The latest Antarctic geological drilling program, ANDRILL, successfully cored a 1285-m-long record of climate history spanning the last 13 m.y. from subsea-floor sediment beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS), using drilling systems specially developed for operating through ice shelves. The cores provide the most complete Antarctic record to date of ice-sheet and climate fluctuations for this period of Earth’s history. The >60 cycles of advance and retreat of the grounded ice margin preserved in the AND-1B record the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since a profound global cooling step in deep-sea oxygen isotope records ~14 m.y.a. A feature of particular interest is a ~90-m-thick interval of diatomite deposited during the warm Pliocene and representing an extended period (~200,000 years) of locally open water, high phytoplankton productivity, and retreat of the glaciers on land.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Flood-inundation maps for the East Fork White River near Bedford, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 1.8-mile reach of the East Fork White River near Bedford, Indiana (Ind.) were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selectedwater levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03371500, East Fork White River near Bedford, Ind. Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=03371500. In addition, information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages, including the East Fork White River near Bedford, Ind. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the East Fork White River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgage 03371500, East Fork White River near Bedford, Ind., and documented high-water marks from the flood of June 2008. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 20 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.593-foot vertical accuracy) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage near Bedford, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery eforts.

Indiana↗
USGS2013

National Park Service Vegetation Inventory Program, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Inventory Program (VIP) is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VIP is managed by the NPS Biological Resources Management Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Vegetation Characterization Program lends a cooperative role in the NPS VIP. The USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, and NPS Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CUVA) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of CUVA. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to identify and describe vegetation types within the National Vegetation Classification Standard (NVCS) and to determine how best to map them by using aerial imagery. The team collected data from 221 vegetation plots within CUVA to develop detailed descriptions of vegetation types. Data from 50 verification sites were also collected to test both the key to vegetation types and the application of vegetation types to a sample set of map polygons. Furthermore, data from 647 accuracy assessment (AA) sites were collected (of which 643 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer). These data sets led to the identification of 45 vegetation types at the association level in the NVCS at CUVA. A total of 44 map classes were developed to map the vegetation and general land cover of CUVA, including the following: 29 map classes represent natural/semi-natural vegetation types in the NVCS, 12 map classes represent cultural vegetation (agricultural and developed) in the NVCS, and 3 map classes represent non-vegetation features (open-water bodies). Features were interpreted from viewing color-infrared digital aerial imagery dated October 2010 (during peak leaf-phenology change of trees) via digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems (GIS). The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial database layers usable in GIS. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5 ha or 0.25 ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables shows the locations of vegetation types and general land cover (vegetation map), vegetation plot samples, verification sites, AA sites, project boundary extent, and aerial photographic centers. The feature-class layer and relate tables for the CUVA vegetation map provides 4,640 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 13,288.4 ha, with an average polygon size of 2.9 ha. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer show map classes representing natural/semi-natural types in the NVCS apply to 4,151 polygons (89.4% of polygons) and cover 11,225.0 ha (84.5%) of the map extent. Of these polygons, the map layer shows CUVA to be 74.4% forest (9,888.8 ha), 2.5% shrubland (329.7 ha), and 7.6% herbaceous vegetation cover (1,006.5 ha). Map classes representing cultural types in the NVCS apply to 435 polygons (9.4% of polygons) and cover 1,825.7 ha (13.7%) of the map extent. Map classes representing non-NVCS units (open water) apply to 54 polygons (1.2% of polygons) and cover 237.7 ha (1.8%) of the map extent. A thematic AA study was conducted of map classes representing natural/semi-natural types in the NVCS. Results present an overall accuracy of 80.7% (kappa index of 79.5%) based on data from 643 of the 647 AA sites. Most individual map-class themes exceed the NPS VIP standard of 80% with a 90% confidence interval. The CUVA vegetation mapping project delivers many geospatial and vegetation data products in hardcopy and/or digital formats. These products consist of an in-depth project report discussing methods and results, which include descriptions and a dichotomous key to vegetation types, map classification and map-class descriptions, and a contingency table showing AA results. The suite of products also includes a database of vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites; digital pictures of field sites; field data sheets; aerial photographic imagery; hardcopy and digital maps; and a geodatabase of vegetation types and land cover (map layer), fieldwork locations (vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites), aerial photographic index, project boundary, and metadata. All geospatial products are projected in Universal Transverse Mercator, Zone 17, by using the North American Datum of 1983. Information on the NPS VIP and completed park mapping projects are located on the Internet at <http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/inventory/veg> and <http://www.usgs.gov/core_science_systems/csas/vip/index.html>.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗
USGS2021

Groundwater quality of aquifers overlying the Oxnard Oil Field, Ventura County, California

Groundwater samples collected from irrigation, monitoring, and municipal supply wells near the Oxnard Oil Field were analyzed for chemical and isotopic tracers to evaluate if thermogenic gas or water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations have mixed with surrounding groundwater. New and historical data show no evidence of water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations in groundwater overlying the field. However, thermogenic gas mixed with microbial methane was detected in 5 wells at concentrations ranging from 0.011–9.1 mg/L. The presence of these gases at concentrations <10 mg/L do not indicate degraded water quality posing a known health risk. Analysis of carbon isotopes (δ 13 C-CH 4 ) and hydrogen isotopes (δ 2 H-CH 4 ) of methane and ratios of methane to heavier hydrocarbon gases were used to differentiate sources of methane between a) microbial, b) thermogenic or c) mixed sources. Results indicate that microbial-sourced methane is widespread in the study area, and concentrations overlap with those from thermogenic sources. The highest concentrations of thermogenic gas were observed in proximity to relatively high density of oil wells, large injection volumes of water disposal and cyclic steam, shallow oil development, and hydrocarbon shows in sediments overlying the producing oil reservoirs. Depths of water wells containing thermogenic gas were within approximately 200 m of the top of the Vaca Tar Sand production zone (approximately 600 m below land surface). Due to the limited sampling density, the source and pathways of thermogenic gas detected in groundwater could not be conclusively determined. Thermogenic gas detected in the absence of co-occurring water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations may result from natural gas migration over geologic time from the Vaca Tar Sand or deeper formations, hydrocarbon shows in sediments overlying producing zones, and/or gas leaking from oil-field infrastructure. Denser sampling of groundwater, potential end-members, and pressure monitoring could help better distinguish pathways of thermogenic gases.

California↗
USGS2017

Use of fish telemetry in rehabilitation planning, management, and monitoring in Areas of Concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Freshwater ecosystems provide many ecosystem services; however, they are often degraded as a result of human activity. To address ecosystem degradation in the Laurentian Great Lakes, Canada and the United States of America established the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA). In 1987, 43 highly polluted and impacted areas were identified under the GLWQA as having one or more of 14 Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs) to the physical and chemical habitat for fish, wildlife and humans, and were designated as Areas of Concern (AOC). Subnational jurisdictions combined with local stakeholders, with support from federal governments, developed plans to remediate and restore these sites. Biotelemetry (the tracking of animals using electronic tags) provides information on the spatial ecology of fish in the wild relevant to habitat management and stock assessment. Here, seven case studies are presented where biotelemetry data were directly incorporated within the AOC Remedial Action Plan (RAP) process. Specific applications include determining seasonal fish–habitat associations to inform habitat restoration plans, identifying the distribution of pollutant-indicator species to identify exposure risk to contamination sources, informing the development of fish passage facilities to enable fish to access fragmented upstream habitats, and assessing fish use of created or restored habitats. With growing capacity for fish biotelemetry research in the Great Lakes, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of incorporating biotelemetry into AOC RAP processes to improve the science and practice of restoration and to facilitate the delisting of AOCs.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2019

Estimating domestic well locations and populations served in the contiguous U.S. for years 2000 and 2010

Domestic wells provide drinking water supply for approximately 40 million people in the United States. Knowing the location of these wells, and the populations they serve, is important for identifying heavily used aquifers, locations susceptible to contamination, and populations potentially impacted by poor-quality groundwater. The 1990 census was the last nationally consistent survey of a home’s source of water, and has not been surveyed since. This paper presents a method for projecting the population dependent on domestic wells for years after 1990, using information from the 1990 census along with population data from subsequent censuses. The method is based on the “domestic ratio” at the census block-group level, defined here as the number of households dependent on domestic wells divided by the total population. Analysis of 1990 data (>220,000 block-groups) indicates that the domestic ratio is a function of the household density. As household density increases, the domestic ratio decreases, once a household density threshold is met. The 1990 data were used to develop a relationship between household density and the domestic ratio. The fitted model, along with household density data from 2000 and 2010, was used to estimate domestic ratios for each decadal year. In turn, the number of households dependent on domestic wells was estimated at the block-group level for 2000 and 2010. High-resolution census-block population data were used to refine the spatial distribution of domestic-well usage and to convert the data into population numbers. The results are presented in two downloadable raster datasets for each decadal year. It is estimated that the total population using domestic-well water in the contiguous U.S. increased 1.5% from 1990 to 2000 to a total of 37.25 million people and increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 to 37.29 million people.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2024

Streamflow timing and magnitude during snow drought depend on snow drought type and regional hydroclimate

Communities around the world rely on snowmelt to meet water demands, and periods of lower than normal snow accumulation, snow droughts, can decrease water supplies. Leveraging 172 minimally disturbed and seasonally snow-covered watersheds, we developed an approach to examine the effects of cool & dry, warm & dry, and warm & wet snow droughts on streamflow timing and magnitude by hydrologic region. Our results showed all types of snow droughts in all regions correlate with lower annual streamflow, lower maximum and minimum flows, and lower runoff ratios, with more numerous low flow days and earlier streamflow timing. However, departures from non-snow drought conditions differed substantially between drought types and regions. Consecutive snow droughts further reduced runoff ratios and increased low flow days, likely due to additional subsurface storage depletion. With warm snow drought occurrence expected to increase, we discuss impacts for water management systems whose design specifications may not reflect the changing hydroclimate.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗
USGS2023

The During Nearshore Event Experiment (DUNEX): A collaborative coastal community experiment to address coastal resilience

The During Nearshore Event Experiment (DUNEX) was a large-scale coastal field effort focused on improving understanding of during-storm nearshore processes to ultimately develop predictive technologies, engineering solutions, and actions to enhance coastal resilience. The experiments were conducted on the North Carolina coast by a multidisciplinary group of over 30 research scientists from 18 academic and federal institutions supporting over 30 graduate students and deploying over 300 instruments from 2019 to 2021. The overarching goal of DUNEX was to gather information collaboratively to improve understanding of the interactions of coastal water levels, waves, currents, beach and dune evolution, soil behavior, vegetation, and groundwater during major coastal storms that affect infrastructure, habitats, and communities. In the short term, these high-quality field measurements will lead to better understanding of during-storm processes and impacts and will enhance U.S. academic coastal research programs by providing opportunities for students to learn about field data collection and to potentially analyze data as part of their studies. Longer-term, DUNEX data and outcomes will improve the ability to predict extreme event physical processes and impacts, validate coastal processes numerical models, and improve coastal resilience strategies and communication methods for coastal communities impacted by storms. The purpose of this paper is to describe the motivation for and science goals of the experiment, how stakeholder needs led to these goals, collaborations amongst researchers, and the knowledge gained that will lead to tools to improve coastal resilience. Herein, we first describe how researchers worked with stakeholders to structure their community-driven needs into science-based requirements. Next, we summarize how federal, academic, and stakeholder researchers worked together to design and execute a multi-organizational experiment aligned with those requirements. Finally, we articulate early findings and lessons learned from the experiment. This paper does not summarize all the research findings from DUNEX, as analyses are still ongoing. An American Geophysical Union (AGU) Special Collection on Coastal Storm Research will be published in 2025 including outcomes from DUNEX research.

North Carolina↗
USGS2018

Bioactive contaminants of emerging concern in National Park waters of the northern Colorado Plateau, USA

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), wastewater indicators (WWIs), and pesticides (herein, Contaminants of Emerging Concern [CECs]) have been documented in surface waters throughout the world and have associated risks to aquatic life. While much research has focused on temperate and urbanized watersheds, less is known about CEC presence in semi-arid landscapes, where water availability is limited and populations are low. CEC presence in water and sediment is reported for 21 sites in eight U.S. national parks in the northern Colorado Plateau region. From 2012 to 2016, at least one PPCP and/or WWI was detected at most sites on over half of sampling visits, indicating that CECs are not uncommon even in isolated areas. CEC detections were generally fewer and at lower concentrations than in urbanized or agricultural watersheds. Consistent with studies from other U.S. regions, the most frequently detected CECs in this study include DEET, caffeine, organophosphorus flame retardants, and bisphenol A in water and fecal indicators and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediment. Maximum concentrations in this study were generally below available water quality benchmarks, sediment quality guidelines, and risk assessment thresholds associated with vertebrates. Additional work is needed to assess the potential activity of hormones, which had high reporting limits in our study, and potential bioactivity of environmental concentrations for invertebrates, microbial communities, and algae. Potential sources of CEC contamination include upstream wastewater effluent discharges and National Park Service invasive-plant-control herbicide applications. CEC occurrence patterns and similarities between continuous and isolated flow locations suggest that direct contamination from individual visitors may also occur. While our data indicate there is little aquatic health risk associated with CECs at our sites, our results demonstrate the ubiquity of CECs on the landscape and a continued need for public outreach concerning resource-use ethics and the potential effects of upstream development.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2006

An interface between the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) pollution model and the ERDAS Imagine Geographic Information System (GIS)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture developed the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) pollution model. The AGNPS pollution model simulates the behavior of runoff, sediment, and nutrient transport from watersheds that have agriculture as their prime use. This model has been used extensively by scientists conducting hydrologic or water quality analyses using computer modeling in an attempt to further understand the complex problem of managing non-point sources of pollution in a watershed hydrology domain. A difficulty with AGNPS is creating and formatting all of the data necessary to execute the model to conduct landscape modeling and watershed analyses. A unique Windows-based program, the AGNPS Data Generator ( ADGen ), has been developed to simplify the task of preparing and creating the input for AGNPS through an interface with ERDAS Imagine (a Leica Geosystems product). Because of the complexity and quantity of the input required and the nature of the output text file produced by AGNPS, ADGen is a helpful tool for the researcher who is trying to analyze non-point source pollution.

Geographic Information Sciences↗
USGS2017

U.S. Geological Survey—Energy and wildlife research annual report for 2017

Introduction Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems provide valuable services to humans and are a source of clean water, energy, raw materials, and productive soils. The Nation’s food supply is more secure because of wildlife. For example, native pollinators enhance agricultural crops, and insect-eating bats provide pest control services worth billions of dollars to farmers annually. Fish and wildlife are also vital to a vibrant outdoor recreation and tourism industry. Recreational activities, such as hunting, shooting, boating, and angling, generated \$1.1 billion in excise taxes paid to State wildlife agencies in 2017. National parks, wildlife refuges, and monuments accounted for $35 billion in economic output and 318,000 jobs nationwide in 2016. Additional economic benefits are generated from the use and enjoyment of wildlife in State-owned lands and waters. Although the United States is rich in natural resources, human activity continues to place new pressures on fish and wildlife and the habitats they rely on. The United States became the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas products in 2012, surpassing Russia’s natural gas production levels in 2009 and Saudi Arabia’s petroleum production in 2013. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the demand for liquid fuel, natural gas, and renewable energy will show strong growth in the next 20 years. Wind energy has demonstrated consistent growth since 2007 with now more than 53,000 wind turbines contributing to power grids in 41 States, Guam, and Puerto Rico. Solar energy has seen rapid growth since 2013 and made up nearly one-third of the total electricity generation additions in 2016. Yet as our Nation works to advance energy security and sustain wildlife, some conflicts have surfaced. Impacts of an expanding energy infrastructure include fragmentation and loss of habitat as well as mortality of birds, bats, fish, and other animals from interactions with energy generation facilities. Because energy development can often occur in wildlife habitats, ecological science can help guide project siting and operational decisions to areas that present the lowest risk to wildlife and energy developers. To address these challenges and make the most of new opportunities, the U.S. Geological Survey is producing innovative science to develop workable solutions that can help sustain wildlife and the habitat they rely upon, while allowing informed development.

Circular↗
USGS2021

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗
USGS2022

Effective conservation of desert riverscapes requires protection and restoration of in-stream flows with rehabilitation approaches tailored to water availability

Desert riverscape rehabilitation practitioners must contend with compounding effects of increasing human water demand, persistent drought, non-native species establishment, and climate change, which further stress desert riverine ecosystems such as rivers in the Colorado River basin, United States. Herein, we provide our perspective on the importance of natural flows, large floods in particular, for successful conservation and rehabilitation of riverscapes. We present ideas developed from our experience with rehabilitation projects across multiple desert tributary rivers with varying levels of habitat degradation and water abstraction. We propose spatially extensive measures such as protection of in-stream flows, tailoring rehabilitation efforts to available annual water availability, and working with nature using low-tech process-based techniques to more completely address the mechanisms of habitat degradation, such as flow reduction and vegetation-induced channel narrowing. Traditionally, rehabilitation efforts in the Colorado River basin take place at relatively small spatial extents, at convenient locations and, largely focus on reducing non-native plant and fish species. We suggest that we need to think more broadly and creatively, and that conservation or recovery of natural flow regimes is crucial to long-term success of almost all management efforts for both in-stream and riparian communities.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2018

Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2021

Behavioral responses of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) and white sucker (Catostomus commersonii) to turbulent flow during fishway passage attempts

An understanding of how undesirable and desirable fish species respond behaviorally to turbulent flow in fishways would guide development of selective fish passage techniques. We applied high-resolution computational fluid dynamics modeling and competing risks analysis towards the development of predictive selective passage models. Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ; an invasive fish in the Great Lakes Basin, North America) upstream passage probability declined from 0.73 to 0.03 as flow conditions became increasingly turbulent, while declines in white sucker ( Catostomus commersonii , a native fish in the region) upstream passage probability were less substantial (0.53 to 0.44). Deploying a sea lamprey trap in the fishway did not effectively reduce sea lamprey upstream passage probability, though capture rate increased during trials with cooler water temperature and low total kinetic energy. Bifurcated fishways that maintain low turbulent flow in the entrapment route and high turbulent flow in the upstream passage route could increase the effectiveness of trapping sea lamprey in fishways as a means to advance selective passage goals.

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