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USGS2016

Perspectives on monitoring gradual change across the continuity of Landsat sensors using time-series data

There are many types of changes occurring over the Earth's landscapes that can be detected and monitored using Landsat data. Here we focus on monitoring “within-state,” gradual changes in vegetation in contrast with traditional monitoring of “abrupt” land-cover conversions. Gradual changes result from a variety of processes, such as vegetation growth and succession, damage from insects and disease, responses to shifts in climate, and other factors. Despite the prevalence of gradual changes across the landscape, they are largely ignored by the remote sensing community. Gradual changes are best characterized and monitored using time-series analysis, and with the successful launch of Landsat 8 we now have appreciable data continuity that extends the Landsat legacy across the previous 43 years. In this study, we conducted three related analyses: (1) comparison of spectral values acquired by Landsats 7 and 8, separated by eight days, to ensure compatibility for time-series evaluation; (2) tracking of multitemporal signatures for different change processes across Landsat 5, 7, and 8 sensors using anniversary-date imagery; and (3) tracking the same type of processes using all available acquisitions. In this investigation, we found that data representing natural vegetation from Landsats 5, 7, and 8 were comparable and did not indicate a need for major modification prior to use for long-term monitoring. Analyses using anniversary-date imagery can be very effective for assessing long term patterns and trends occurring across the landscape, and are especially good for providing insights regarding trends related to long-term and continuous trends of growth or decline. We found that use of all available data provided a much more comprehensive level of understanding of the trends occurring, providing information about rate, duration, and intra- and inter-annual variability that could not be readily gleaned from the anniversary date analyses. We observed that using all available clear Landsat 5–8 observations with the new Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm was very effective for illuminating vegetation trends. There are a number of potential challenges for assessing gradual changes, including atmospheric impacts, algorithm development and visualization of the changes. One of the biggest challenges for studying gradual change will be the lack of appropriate data for validating results and products.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2002

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Climatic Change↗

USGS1989

Studies of geology and hydrology in the Basin and Range Province, Southwestern United States, for isolation of high-level radioactive waste - Basis of characterization and evaluation

The geologic and hydrologic factors in selected regions of the Basin and Range province were examined to identify prospective areas for further study that may provide isolation of high-level radioactive waste from the accessible environment. The six regions selected for study were characterized with respect to the following guidelines: (1) Potential repository media; (2) Quaternary tectonic conditions; (3) climatic change and geomorphic processes; (4) ground-water conditions; (5) ground-water quality; and (6) mineral and energy resources. The repository medium will function as the first natural barrier to radionuclide travel by virtue of associated slow ground-water velocity. The principal rock types considered as host media include granitic, intermediate, and mafic intrusive rocks; argillaceous rocks; salt and anhydrite; volcanic mudflow (laharic) breccias; some intrusive rhyolitic plugs and stocks; partially zeolitized tuff; and metamorphic rocks. In the unsaturated zone, the permeability and hydrologic properties of the rocks and the hydrologic setting are more important than the rock type. Media ideally should be permeable to provide drainage and should have a minimal water flux The ground-water flow path from a repository to the accessible environment needs to present major barriers to the transport of radionuclides. Factors considered in evaluating the ground-water conditions include ground-water traveltimes and quality, confining beds, and earth materials favorable for retardation of radionuclides. Ground-water velocities in the regions were calculated from estimated hydraulic properties of the rocks and gradients. Because site-specific data on hydraulic properties are not available, data from the literature were assembled and synthesized to obtain values for use in estimating ground-water velocities. Hydraulic conductivities for many rock types having granular and fracture permeability follow a log-normal distribution. Porosity for granular and very weathered crystalline rock tends to be normally distributed; porosity of fractured crystalline rock probably follows a log-normal distribution. The tectonic setting needs to prevent an increase in radionuclides to the accessible environment. Data on historic seismicity and heat flow, Quaternary faults, volcanism, and uplift were used to assess the tectonic conditions. Long-term late Cenozoic rates of vertical crustal movement in the Basin and Range province range from less than 2 meters per 104 years to greater than 20 meters per 104 years. Shortterm rates of vertical movement may be more than an order of magnitude greater, based on geodetic leveling. Changes in tectonic and climatic processes may potentially cause changes in hydrologic conditions and geomorphology that could affect the integrity of a deep, mined repository either adversely or beneficially. The transition from a full-glacial climate to the current interglacial condition has occurred within the past 15,000 years. Reconstructions of the last full-glacial climate indicate that, at that time, there was greater water availability for runoff and vegetation growth than there is now. Based on the increased water availability and depending on seasonal distribution of precipitation, on soil characteristics, on topography, and on other characteristics, ground-water recharge during the full-glacial climate is estimated to have been possibly 2 to 10 or more times the modern rate. During the full-glacial climate, more than 100 lakes occupied closed basins in the province. Any increase in ground-water recharge and refilling of Pleistocene lakes will tend to decrease the distance of ground-water flow and its time of travel. The unsaturated zone this zone is considered a potential host medium where the thickness is greater than 150 m will be decreased by these changes. In contrast, incision of streams and other geomorphic, tectonic, or climatically induced changes that lower the ground-water discharge level will tend to increase the thickness of the unsaturated zone. Aggradation in basinal troughs may either decrease or increase the thickness of the unsaturated zone. Aggradation in basins that causes the ground-water discharge level to rise will tend to decrease the thickness of unsaturated zone in the adjacent uplands; aggradation in basins where the ground-water discharge level remains the same or is lowered will increase the unsaturated thickness of basin fill. Records show that, throughout late Cenozoic time in the Basin and Range province, continued vertical crustal movements have tended to maintain mountain ranges and closed basins, whereas aggradation of the basins and erosion of the mountain ranges have tended to decrease the topographic relief. Maximum rates of denudation for small basins in areas climatically similar to the Basin and Range province are about 2 meters per 104 years. For sites unaffected by stream incision and scarp retreat, a conservative estimate of erosion affecting long-term changes in depth of burial would appear to be 2 meters per 104 years, or, equal to the long-term rate of vertical crustal movement where greater than 2 meters per 104 years. The response of the ground-water conditions to climatic and geomorphically induced boundary conditions is significant from the points of: (1) The potential maximum change in the ground-water flow system; (2) the time of response of the ground-water system; and (3) the present state of the ground-water system as a result of past changes. Effects of longterm climatic and tectonic changes on hydrologic and geomorphic conditions differ from area to area, and rates of change of geomorphic and hydrologic conditions may vary significantly. Therefore, sitespecific studies need to be made to assess the long-term integrity of deep, mined repositories.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Te↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2010

Controls on mangrove forest‐atmosphere carbon dioxide exchanges in western Everglades National Park

We report on net ecosystem production (NEP) and key environmental controls on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) between a mangrove forest and the atmosphere in the coastal Florida Everglades. An eddy covariance system deployed above the canopy was used to determine NEE during January 2004 through August 2005. Maximum daytime NEE ranged from −20 to −25 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 between March and May. Respiration (R d ) was highly variable (2.81 ± 2.41 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 ), reaching peak values during the summer wet season. During the winter dry season, forest CO 2 assimilation increased with the proportion of diffuse solar irradiance in response to greater radiative transfer in the forest canopy. Surface water salinity and tidal activity were also important controls on NEE. Daily light use efficiency was reduced at high (>34 parts per thousand (ppt)) compared to low (<17 ppt) salinity by 46%. Tidal inundation lowered daytime R d by ∼0.9 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 and nighttime R d by ∼0.5 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 . The forest was a sink for atmospheric CO 2 , with an annual NEP of 1170 ± 127 g C m −2 during 2004. This unusually high NEP was attributed to year‐round productivity and low ecosystem respiration which reached a maximum of only 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Tidal export of dissolved inorganic carbon derived from belowground respiration likely lowered the estimates of mangrove forest respiration. These results suggest that carbon balance in mangrove coastal systems will change in response to variable salinity and inundation patterns, possibly resulting from secular sea level rise and climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2009

Coral reef evolution on rapidly subsiding margins

A series of well-developed submerged coral reefs are preserved in the Huon Gulf (Papua New Guinea) and around Hawaii. Despite different tectonics settings, both regions have experienced rapid subsidence (2-6??m/ka) over the last 500??ka. Rapid subsidence, combined with eustatic sea-level changes, is responsible for repeated drowning and backstepping of coral reefs over this period. Because we can place quantitative constraints on these systems (i.e., reef drowning age, eustatic sea-level changes, subsidence rates, accretion rates, basement substrates, and paleobathymetry), these areas represent unique natural laboratories for exploring the roles of tectonics, reef accretion, and eustatic sea-level changes in controlling the evolution of individual reefs, as well as backstepping of the entire system. A review of new and existing bathymetric, radiometric, sedimentary facies and numerical modeling data indicate that these reefs have had long, complex growth histories and that they are highly sensitive, recording drowning not only during major deglaciations, but also during high-frequency, small-amplitude interstadial and deglacial meltwater pulse events. Analysis of five generalized sedimentary facies shows that reef drowning is characterized by a distinct biological and sedimentary sequence. Observational and numerical modeling data indicate that on precessional (20??ka) and sub-orbital timescales, the rate and amplitude of eustatic sea-level changes are critical in controlling initiation, growth, drowning or sub-aerial exposure, subsequent re-initiation, and final drowning. However, over longer timescales (> 100-500??ka) continued tectonic subsidence and basement substrate morphology influence broad scale reef morphology and backstepping geometries. Drilling of these reefs will yield greatly expanded stratigraphic sections compared with similar reefs on slowly subsiding, stable and uplifting margins, and thus they represent a unique archive of sea-level and climate changes, as well as a record of the response of coral reefs to these changes over the last six glacial cycles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2014

Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga ( Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change

Toxic blooms of golden alga (GA, Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas typically occur in winter or early spring. In North America, they were first reported in Texas in the 1980s, and a marked range expansion occurred in 2001. Although there is concern about the influence of climate change on the future distribution of GA, factors responsible for past dispersals remain uncertain. To better understand the factors that influence toxic bloom dispersal in reservoirs, this study characterized reservoir water quality associated with toxic GA blooms since 2001, and examined trends in water quality during a 20-year period bracketing the 2001 expansion. Archived data were analyzed for six impacted and six nonimpacted reservoirs from two major Texas basins: Brazos River and Colorado River. Data were simplified for analysis by pooling spatially (across sampling stations) and temporally (winter, December-February) within reservoirs and generating depth-corrected (1 m) monthly values. Classification tree analysis [period of record (POR), 2001-2010] using salinity-associated variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, temperature, total hardness, potassium, nitrate+nitrite, and total phosphorus indicated that salinity best predicts the toxic bloom occurrence. Minimum estimated salinities for toxic bloom formation were 0.59 and 1.02 psu in Brazos and Colorado River reservoirs, respectively. Principal component analysis (POR, 2001-2010) indicated that GA habitat is best defined by higher salinity relative to nonimpacted reservoirs, with winter DO and pH also being slightly higher and winter temperature slightly lower in impacted reservoirs. Trend analysis, however, did not reveal monotonic changes in winter water quality of GA-impacted reservoirs during the 20-year period (1991-2010) bracketing the 2001 dispersal. Therefore, whereas minimum levels of salinity are required for GA establishment and toxic blooms in Texas reservoirs, the lack of trends in water quality suggests that conditions favorable for toxic blooms pre-date the 2001 expansion. These observations are consistent with a climate change-independent scenario of past GA dispersals in Texas reservoirs driven by novel introductions into pre-existing favorable habitat. Reports of latent GA populations in certain nonimpacted reservoirs, however, provide a plausible scenario of future dispersals characterized by prolonged periods between colonization and toxic bloom development and driven by changes in water quality, natural, or anthropogenic.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2017

Phenotypic plasticity and climate change: Can polar bears respond to longer Arctic summers with an adaptive fast?

Plasticity in the physiological and behavioural responses of animals to prolonged food shortages may determine the persistence of species under climate warming. This is particularly applicable for species that can “adaptively fast” by conserving protein to protect organ function while catabolizing endogenous tissues. Some Ursids, including polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), adaptively fast during winter hibernation—and it has been suggested that polar bears also employ this strategy during summer. We captured 57 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) during summer 2008 and 2009 and measured blood variables that indicate feeding, regular fasting, and adaptive fasting. We also assessed tissue δ13C and δ15N to infer diet, and body condition via mass and length. We found that bears on shore maintained lipid and protein stores by scavenging on bowhead whale ( Balaena mysticetus ) carcasses from human harvest, while those that followed the retreating sea ice beyond the continental shelf were food deprived. They had low ratios of blood urea to creatinine (U:C), normally associated with adaptive fasting. However, they also exhibited low albumin and glucose (indicative of protein loss) and elevated alanine aminotransferase and ghrelin (which fall during adaptive fasting). Thus, the ~ 70% of the SBS subpopulation that spends summer on the ice experiences more of a regular, rather than adaptive, fast. This fast will lengthen as summer ice declines. The resulting protein loss prior to winter could be a mechanism driving the reported correlation between summer ice and polar bear reproduction and survival in the SBS.

Oecologia↗

USGS2021

Extreme precipitation across adjacent burned and unburned watersheds reveals impacts of low severity wildfire on debris-flow processes

In steep landscapes, wildfire-induced changes to soil and vegetation can lead to extreme and hazardous geomorphic responses, including debris flows. The wildfire-induced mechanisms that lead to heightened geomorphic responses, however, depend on many site-specific factors including regional climate, vegetation, soil texture, and soil burn severity. As climate and land use change drive changes in fire regime, there is an increasing need to understand how fire alters geomorphic responses, particularly in areas where fire has been historically infrequent. Here, we examine differences in the initiation, magnitude, and particle-size distribution of debris flows that initiated within the area burned by the 2019 Woodbury Fire in central Arizona, USA, and those that initiated in a nearby unburned area. Despite similar rainfall intensities, unburned watersheds were less likely to produce debris flows. Debris flows in unburned areas initiated from both runoff and shallow landslides, while debris flows only initiated from runoff-related processes in the burned area. The grain-size distribution making up the matrix of debris-flow deposits within the burned area generally had a lower ratio of sand to silt relative to debris flows that initiated in the unburned area, though there were no systematic differences in the coarse fraction of debris-flow sediment between burned and unburned areas. Results help expand our ability to predict postwildfire debris-flow activity in a wider range of settings, specifically the Sonoran Desert ecoregion, and provide general insight into the impact of wildfire on geomorphic processes in steep terrain.

Arizona↗

USGS2008

Detecting Evidence of Climate Change in the Forests of the Eastern United States

Changes in land use or disturbances such as defoliation by insects, disease, or fire all affect the composition and amount of tree canopy in a forest. These changes are easy to detect. Noticing and understanding the complex ways that global or regional-scale climate change combines with these disturbances to affect forest growth patterns and succession is difficult. This is particularly true for regions where changes in climate are not the most extreme, such as the mid-latitude forests of the Eastern United States. If land and water resources are to be managed responsibly, it is important to know how well the impacts of climate change on these forests can be measured in order to provide the best information possible to respond to any future changes. The goal of this study is to test whether climate-induced changes in forests in the Eastern United States can be detected and characterized using satellite imagery.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2002

Geology and hydrogeology of the Caribbean Islands aquifer system of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Poorly lithified to unconsolidated carbonate and clastic sedimentary rocks of Tertiary (Oligocene to Pliocene) and Quaternary (Pleistocene to Holocene) age compose the South Coast aquifer and the North Coast limestone aquifer system of Puerto Rico; poorly lithified to unlithified carbonate rocks of late Tertiary (early Miocene to Pliocene) age make up the Kingshill aquifer of St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. The South Coast aquifer, North Coast limestone aquifer system, and Kingshill aquifer are the most areally extensive and function as the major sources of ground water in the U.S. Caribbean Islands Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (CI-RASA) study area. In Puerto Rico's South Coast ground-water province, more than 1,000 meters of clastic and carbonate rocks of Oligocene to Pliocene age infill the South Coast Tertiary Basin. The pattern of lithofacies within this basin appears to have been controlled by changes in base level that were, at times, dominated by tectonic movement (uplift and subsidence), but were also influenced by eustasy. Deposition of the 70-kilometer long and 3- to 8-kilometer wide fan-delta plain that covers much of the South Coast ground-water province occurred largely in response to glacially-induced changes in sea level and climate during the Quaternary period. Tectonic movement played a much less important role during the Quaternary. The North Coast ground-water province of Puerto Rico is underlain by homoclinal coastal plain wedge of carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that infill the North Coast Tertiary Basin and thicken to more than 1,700 meters. A thin basal siliciclastic sequence of late Oligocene age is overlain by a thick section of mostly carbonate rocks of Oligocene to middle Miocene age. Globigerinid limestone of late Miocene to Pliocene age crops out and lies in the shallow subsurface areas of northwestern Puerto Rico. Oligocene to middle Miocene age rocks tentatively can be divided into five depositional sequences and associated systems tracts; these rocks record carbonate and minor siliciclastic deposition that occurred in response to changes in relative sea level. The Cibao Formation represents the most complex of these sequences and contains a varied facies of carbonate, mixed carbonate-siliciclastic, and siliciclastic rocks that reflect differential uplift, subsidence, and transgression of the sea. Uplift, graben formation, and gradual shallowing of the sea are reflected within the bathyal-dominated sedimentary facies of the Kingshill Limestone in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. Reef-tract limestone beds of Pliocene age were subject to exposure, resubmergence, and meteoric leaching of aragonitic skeletal debris; these beds contain patchy lenses of dolomite that are restricted to a small, structurally-controlled embayment. The South Coast aquifer, the principal water-bearing unit of Puerto Rico's South Coast ground-water province, consists of boulder- to silt-size detritus formed by large and small coalescing fan deltas of Pleistocene to Holocene age. Deep well data indicates that it is possible to vertically separate and group a highly complex and irregular-bedded detrital sequence that underlies distal parts of the fan-delta plain into discrete water-bearing units if correlated with 30- to 40-meter thick, eustatically-controlled depositional cycles. Lithofacies maps show that greatest hydraulic conductivity within the fan-delta plain is generally associated with proximal fan and midfan areas. Distal and interfan areas are least permeable. Alluvial valley aquifers located in the western part of the South Coast ground-water province are important local sources of water supply and appear to contain some of the same physical and hydraulic characteristics as the South Coast aquifer. Older sedimentary rocks within the basin are poor aquifers; conglomeratic beds are well-cemented, and carbonate beds do not contain well-developed solution features, except locally where the beds are overlain by alluvium. Ground-water occurs under unconfined conditions in proximal and midfan areas. Confined conditions within deeper parts of the system and in interfan and some midfan areas are created largely by the intercalated nature of discontinuous fine-grained beds that retard vertical ground-water movement. The development of water resources in southern Puerto Rico has modified the hydrologic system of the South Coast aquifer considerably. Under predevelopment conditions, the South Coast aquifer was recharged in the unconfined, proximal fan and some midfan areas by infrequent rainfall and seepage from streams near the fan apex. Discharge occurred as seabed seepage, baseflow discharge along the lower coastal reach of streams, seepage to coastal wetlands, or evapotranspiration in areas underlain by a shallow water table. Under development conditions, seepage from irrigation canals and areal recharge from furrow irrigation represented a principal mechanism for recharge to the aquifer. Increased ground-water withdrawals in the 1960's and 1970's resulted in declines in the water table to below sea level in some places and intrusion of salt water into the aquifer. By the middle 1980's, a reduction in ground-water withdrawals and a shift from furrow irrigation to drip-irrigation techniques resulted in the recovery of water levels. Under present-day (1986) conditions, regional ground-water flow is coastward but with local movement to some well fields. In addition to the discharge mechanisms described above, ground-water discharges also to coastal canals. The North Coast limestone aquifer system consists of limestone, lesser amounts of dolomite, and minor clastic detritus of Oligocene to Pliocene age that form an unconfined upper aquifer and a confined lower aquifer; these aquifers are separated by a clay, mudstone, and marl confining unit. Topographic relief and incision of carbonate coastal plain rocks by streams are the principal factors controlling the direction of ground-water flow. The North Coast limestone aquifer system is recharged principally by precipitation that enters the upper and lower aquifers where they crop out. Regional groundwater movement from the upper aquifer is to the major rivers, wells, coastal wetlands, coastal, nearshore, and offshore springs, or as seabed seepage. Regional discharge from the lower aquifer is to the major rivers along its unconfined parts or where the confining unit has been breached by streams. Discharge from the lower aquifer also occurs in the San Juan area where the Mucarabones Sand provides an avenue for diffuse upward ground-water flow. Transmissivity within the upper limestone aquifer appears to be largely regulated by the thickness of the freshwater lens. The lens is thickest and transmissivity is greatest in interstream areas that lie in a zone that closely corresponds to the landwardmost extent of the underlying saltwater wedge. Hydraulic conductivity of the upper aquifer generally increases in a coastward direction and reflects lithologic control, karstification in the upper 30 to 100 meters of the section, and enhanced permeability in a zone of freshwater and saltwater mixing. Transmissivity of the lower aquifer is an order of magnitude smaller than that of the upper aquifer; highest transmissivities in the lower aquifer largely correspond to a coarse grainstone-packstone and coral-patch-reef depositional facies contained within the outcropping parts of the Montebello Limestone Member and its subsurface equivalents. Porosity within the North Coast limestone aquifer system is high in grainstone-packstones and low in wackestone and marl. Dolomitized zones and moldic grainstone-packstone strata are the most porous carbonate rocks, but occur in thin beds that usually are only a few meters thick. Processes of karstification that include the development of caverous zones and large vugs, and dissolution along possible regional fracture sets has enhanced permeability within the upper part of the aquifer system. Stratigraphic and lithologic control play an important role controlling permeability within the lower part of the system. The Kingshill aquifer of St. Croix, in large part, is composed of deepwater limestone that contains only microscopic pores and is poorly permeable; however, the upper part of the aquifer, a shallow-water skeletal and reef limestone, is fairly permeable, but restricted in areal extent. Permeability within these uppermost beds of the aquifer has been enhanced by meteoric leaching, dissolution within a mixing zone of saltwater and fresh water, and dolomitization. However, most large-yield wells completed in the Kingshill aquifer are also screened in alluvium that overlies or infills incised channels. The alluvial deposits serve as a temporary storage zone for rainfall, runoff, and ground water slowly entering the Kingshill aquifer.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2012

Temporal, spatial and ecological dynamics of speciation among amphi-Beringian small mammals

Quaternary climate cycles played an important role in promoting diversification across the Northern Hemisphere, although details of the mechanisms driving evolutionary change are still poorly resolved. In a comparative phylogeographical framework, we investigate temporal, spatial and ecological components of evolution within a suite of Holarctic small mammals. We test a hypothesis of simultaneous divergence among multiple taxon pairs, investigating time to coalescence and demographic change for each taxon in response to a combination of climate and geography.

Beringia↗

USGS2006

Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid and arid regions

Global synthesis of the findings from ∼140 recharge study areas in semiarid and arid regions provides important information on recharge rates, controls, and processes, which are critical for sustainable water development. Water resource evaluation, dryland salinity assessment (Australia), and radioactive waste disposal (US) are among the primary goals of many of these recharge studies. The chloride mass balance (CMB) technique is widely used to estimate recharge. Average recharge rates estimated over large areas (40–374 000 km 2 ) range from 0·2 to 35 mm year −1 , representing 0·1–5% of long-term average annual precipitation. Extreme local variability in recharge, with rates up to ∼720 m year −1 , results from focussed recharge beneath ephemeral streams and lakes and preferential flow mostly in fractured systems. System response to climate variability and land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes is archived in unsaturated zone tracer profiles and in groundwater level fluctuations. Inter-annual climate variability related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in up to three times higher recharge in regions within the SW US during periods of frequent El Niños (1977–1998) relative to periods dominated by La Niñas (1941–1957). Enhanced recharge related to ENSO is also documented in Argentina. Climate variability at decadal to century scales recorded in chloride profiles in Africa results in recharge rates of 30 mm year −1 during the Sahel drought (1970–1986) to 150 mm year −1 during non-drought periods. Variations in climate at millennial scales in the SW US changed systems from recharge during the Pleistocene glacial period (≥10 000 years ago) to discharge during the Holocene semiarid period. LU/LC changes such as deforestation in Australia increased recharge up to about 2 orders of magnitude. Changes from natural grassland and shrublands to dryland (rain-fed) agriculture altered systems from discharge (evapotranspiration, ET) to recharge in the SW US. The impact of LU change was much greater than climate variability in Niger (Africa), where replacement of savanna by crops increased recharge by about an order of magnitude even during severe droughts. Sensitivity of recharge to LU/LC changes suggests that recharge may be controlled through management of LU. In irrigated areas, recharge varies from 10 to 485 mm year −1 , representing 1–25% of irrigation plus precipitation. However, irrigation pumpage in groundwater-fed irrigated areas greatly exceeds recharge rates, resulting in groundwater mining. Increased recharge related to cultivation has mobilized salts that accumulated in the unsaturated zone over millennia, resulting in widespread groundwater and surface water contamination, particularly in Australia. The synthesis of recharge rates provided in this study contains valuable information for developing sustainable groundwater resource programmes within the context of climate variability and LU/LC change.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2016

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although on average only 3.3 % of annual precipitation fell as ROS during winter over the study period, these events contributed a significant proportion of annual and winter N-NO3 export at the majority of sites (average of 12 and 42 %, respectively); with the exception of the most northern catchment, where total winter precipitation was exceptionally low (average 77 mm). In years with a greater magnitude of ROS events, the timing of the peak N-NO3 export period (during spring melt) was redistributed to earlier in the year. Variability in ROS frequency and magnitude amongst sites was high and a generalised linear model demonstrated that this spatial variability could be explained by interactive effects between regional and site-specific drivers. Snowpack coverage was particularly important for explaining the site-specific ROS response. Specifically, ROS events were less common when higher temperatures eliminated snow cover despite increasing the proportion of winter rainfall, whereas ROS event frequency was greater at sites where sufficient snow cover remained. This research suggests that catchment response to changes in N deposition is sensitive to climate change; a vulnerability which appears to vary in intensity throughout the seasonally snow-covered temperate region. Furthermore, the sensitivity of stream N-NO3 export to ROS events and potential shifts (earlier) in the timing of N-NO3 export relative to other nutrients affect downstream nutrient stoichiometry and the community composition of phytoplankton and other algae.

Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Ontario,Vermont↗

USGS2007

Reactivation of a cryptobiotic stream ecosystem in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: A long-term geomorphological experiment

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica contain many glacial meltwater streams that flow for 6 to 12??weeks during the austral summer and link the glaciers to the lakes on the valley floors. Dry valley streams gain solutes longitudinally through weathering reactions and microbial processes occurring in the hyporheic zone. Some streams have thriving cyanobacterial mats. In streams with regular summer flow, the mats are freeze-dried through the winter and begin photosynthesizing with the onset of flow. To evaluate the longer term persistence of cyanobacterial mats, we diverted flow to an abandoned channel, which had not received substantial flow for approximately two decades. Monitoring of specific conductance showed that for the first 3??years after the diversion, the solute concentrations were greater in the reactivated channel than in most other dry valley streams. We observed that cyanobacterial mats became abundant in the reactivated channel within a week, indicating that the mats had been preserved in a cryptobiotic state in the channel. Over the next several years, these mats had high rates of productivity and nitrogen fixation compared to mats from other streams. Experiments in which mats from the reactivated channel and another stream were incubated in water from both of the streams indicated that the greater solute concentrations in the reactivated channel stimulated net primary productivity of mats from both streams. These stream-scale experimental results indicate that the cryptobiotic preservation of cyanobacterial mats in abandoned channels in the dry valleys allows for rapid response of these stream ecosystems to climatic and geomorphological change, similar to other arid zone stream ecosystems. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2007

Late Quaternary stratigraphy and luminescence geochronology of the northeastern Mojave Desert

The chronology of the Holocene and late Pleistocene deposits of the northeastern Mojave Desert have been largely obtained using radiocarbon ages. Our study refines and extends this framework using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to date deposits from Valjean Valley, Silurian Lake Playa, Red Pass, and California Valley. Of particular interest are eolian fine silts incorporated in ground-water discharge (GWD) deposits bracketed at 185-140 and 20-50 ka. Alluvial fan deposits proved amenable for OSL by dating both eolian sand lenses and reworked eolian sand in a matrix of gravel that occurs within the fan stratigraphy. Lacustrine sand in spits and bars also yielded acceptable OSL ages. These OSL ages fill gaps in the geochronology of desert deposits, which can provide data relevant to understanding the responses of several depositional systems to regional changes in climate. This study identifies the most promising deposits for future luminescence dating and suggests that for several regions of the Mojave Desert, sediments from previously undated landforms can be more accurately placed within correct geologic map units.

Quaternary International↗

USGS1997

Climatic controls of western U.S. glaciers at the last glacial maximum

We use a nested atmospheric modeling strategy to simulate precipitation and temperature of the western United States 18,000 years ago (18 ka). The high resolution of the nested model allows us to isolate the regional structure of summer temperature and winter precipitation that is crucial to determination of the net mass balance of late-Pleistocene mountain glaciers in this region of diverse topography and climate. Modeling results suggest that climatic controls of these glaciers varied significantly over the western U.S. Glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains existed under relatively cold July temperatures and low winter accumulation, reflecting anticyclonic, easterly wind flow off the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In contrast, glaciers that existed under relatively warmer and wetter conditions are located along the Pacific coast south of Oregon, where enhanced westerlies delivered higher precipitation than at present. Between these two groupings lie glaciers that were controlled by a mix of cold and wet conditions attributed to the convergence of cold air from the ice sheet and moisture derived from the westerlies. Sensitivity tests suggest that, for our simulated 18 ka climate, many of the glaciers exhibit a variable response to climate but were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation, particularly those glaciers in central Idaho and the Yellowstone Plateau. Our results support arguments that temperature depression generally played a larger role in lowering equilibrium line altitudes in the western U.S. during the last glacial maximum than did increased precipitation, although the magnitude of temperature depression required for steady-state mass balance varied from 8-18??C. Only the Sierra Nevada glaciers required a substantial increase in precipitation to achieve steady-state mass balance, while glaciers in the Cascade Range existed with decreased precipitation.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2012

A meeting of the waters: interdisciplinary challenges and opportunities in tidal rivers

At the interface of estuarine tides and freshwater rivers lie wetland and aquatic ecosystems, which experience dramatic effects of sea level rise. There, nontidal channels and riparian floodplains are transforming into tidal ecosystems, and tidal freshwater ecosystems are receiving increasing salinity. These river-floodplain systems have both fluvial characteristics, including meandering channels and expansive floodplain forests, and estuarine characteristics, including tides and intertidal wetlands [see Barendregt et al., 2009; Conner et al., 2007, and references therein]. Because tidal rivers lie at the disciplinary divide between fluvial and estuarine science, a knowledge gap has developed in scientists' understanding of the geomorphic and biogeochemical response of these environments to sea level rise, climate change, and anthropogenically driven variations in watershed exports.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗