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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources

USGS2022

A novel origin for PGE reefs: A case study of the J-M Reef

The origin of meter scale stratiform layers of disseminated sulfides in enriched platinum group element (PGE) tenors and grades, called reef-type deposits, are the world’s most significant source of PGEs. Their origin in layered mafic intrusions remains debated, but in general, most researchers favor an orthomagmatic origin for reef-type deposits and agree that their formation requires the equilibration of an immiscible sulfide liquid with a significantly larger mass of silicate magma (i.e., silicate:sulfide mass ratios of 104 to 106). However, where, and how this chemical equilibration process takes place in the magmatic system is poorly constrained. In this contribution, we propose a new model for the origin of PGE reef deposits. We demonstrate that finely disseminated, resident sulfide liquid hosted within cumulate mush can be upgraded by incoming batches of S-undersaturated and PGE-undepleted silicate melt. We demonstrate this model through a case study of the J-M Reef deposit of the Stillwater Complex, the world’s highest-grade PGE deposit (14 ppm Pd over 1.8 m).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

February 2012 workshop jumpstarts the Mekong Fish Monitoring Network

The Mekong River in Southeast Asia travels through a basin rich in natural resources. The river originates on the northern slope of the world's tallest mountains, the Himalaya Range, and then drops elevation quickly through steep mountain gorges, tumbling out of China into Myanmar (Burma) and the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). The precipitous terrain of Lao PDR and Thailand generates interest in the river and its tributaries for hydropower development. The terrain, soils, water, and climate make it one of the world's most biologically rich regions. The Mekong's bounty is again on display in the Mekong River Delta, where rice production has successfully been increased to high levels making Vietnam second only to Thailand as the world's largest rice exporters. At least 800 fish species contribute to the natural resource bounty of the Mekong River and are the basis for one of the world's most productive fisheries that provide the primary protein source to more than 50 million people. Against this backdrop of rich natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with the consulting firm FISHBIO, colleagues from the international Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Institute, and a broad contingent of Southeast Asian representatives and partners from abroad to increase knowledge of the Mekong River fisheries and to develop the capacity of permanent residents to investigate and understand these fisheries resources. With the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) region facing the likelihood of significant environmental changes as a result of both human activities and global climate change, enhancing environmental understanding is critical. To encourage cooperation among the LMB scientists and managers in the study of the Mekong River's fisheries, FISHBIO and the USGS, with generous support from the U.S. State Department, hosted a workshop in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in February 2012. Workshop participants were from Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Representatives from the governments, universities, nongovernmental organizations, and the Mekong River Commission discussed current and potential methods and mechanisms of the Mekong Fish Monitoring Network. The goals of the workshop were to determine if the Network and associated databases were of interest and value to the LMB nations, to determine if future fisheries monitoring data would be comparable among the nations, and to establish methods and an organizational structure for collaborating on future monitoring and research. The participants in this international workshop agreed that the Network would be useful but would require additional funding to secure their full participation. The USGS and FISHBIO are collaboratively seeking additional funding to expand research participation and projects in all four LMB nations. If the Network can facilitate cooperation among many fisheries researchers in the LMB, the basin would become a model of cooperative international fishery studies and would increase the understanding of a river basin rich in natural resources.

Phnom Penh↗

USGS2007

Pre-Restoration Habitat Use by Chinook Salmon in the Nisqually Estuary Using Otolith Analysis

INTRODUCTION The Nisqually Fall Chinook population is one of 27 stocks in the Puget Sound evolutionarily significant unit listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act. The preservation of the Nisqually delta ecosystem coupled with extensive restoration of approximately 1,000 acres of diked estuarine habitat is identified as the highest priority action for the recovery of naturally spawning Nisqually River Fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Nisqually Chinook Recovery Plan. In order to evaluate the response of Chinook salmon to restoration, a pre-restoration baseline of life history diversity and estuary utilization must be established. Otolith analysis has been proposed as a means to measure Chinook salmon life history diversity, growth, and residence in the Nisqually estuary. Over time, the information from the otolith analyses will be used to: (1) determine if estuary restoration actions cause changes to the population structure (i.e. frequency of the different life history trajectories) for Nisqually River Chinook, (2) compare pre and post restoration residence times and growth rates, and (3) suggest whether estuary restoration yields substantial benefits for Chinook salmon. Otoliths are calcium carbonate structures in the inner ear that grow in proportion to the overall growth of the fish. Daily growth increments can be measured so date and fish size at various habitat transitions can be back-calculated. Careful analysis of otolith microstructure can be used to determine the number of days that a fish resided in the estuary as a juvenile (increment counts), size at entrance to the estuary, size at egress, and the amount that the fish grew while in the estuary. Juvenile Chinook salmon can exhibit a variety of life history trajectories ? some enter the sea (or Puget Sound) as fry, some rear in the estuary before entering the sea, and some rear in the river and then move rapidly through the estuary into the sea as smolts. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and use analysis of otolith microstructure as a tool for characterizing the importance of the estuary to Chinook salmon in the Nisqually River before and after restoration efforts at the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge (NNWR). This tool is used to quantify changes in habitat use and help assess restoration benefits to the federally threatened Nisqually River Chinook salmon population. Analysis of otolith microstructure typically is superior to the alternative of traditional mark-recapture methods. The latter are extremely expensive or inadequate in estuary habitats, typically are biased and substantially underestimate use, and do not directly reveal the importance or contribution to adult recruitment (i.e., they do not account for differential survival afterward in Puget Sound or the ocean). Analysis of otolith microstructure for these purposes, while new, is proving highly successful in a similar study that USGS and partners are conducting in the Skagit River estuary system located in northern Puget Sound. This work has been based on research by Neilson et al. (1985). We expect to use the Skagit River data as a reference for the before/after restoration comparison in the Nisqually River.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Lessons learned from wetlands research at the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, 1967–2021

Depressional wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America have a long history of investigation owing to their importance in maintaining migratory-bird populations, especially waterfowl. One area of particularly intensive study is the Cottonwood Lake study area in Stutsman County, North Dakota. Studies at the Cottonwood Lake study area began in 1967 and continue through the present (2022). During this period of scientific discovery, meteorological conditions at the Cottonwood Lake study area varied greatly and included one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century and one of the wettest periods in the past 500 years. Persistent wet conditions that began in 1993 have contributed to state changes in many of the study area’s larger wetlands to lake-like conditions, whereas the smaller wetlands returned to seasonally ponded conditions during relatively dry years interspersed within the longer-term wet period. Additionally, some nonwetland areas of the study area developed wetland plant, hydrology, and soil characteristics during the 1993-to-present (2022) wet period. The persistently high stages of water in the larger wetlands since 1993 contributed to a buildup of dissolved solids and increases in salinity with time following an initial decrease in salinity caused by the dilution of dissolved solids within a larger volume of water. During 2021, drought conditions similar to the 1988 to 1992 period may develop if conditions persist. However, meteorological changes during the past 30 years have persisted long enough to be considered a change in climate conditions at the study area and, if such wet conditions continue, would represent a change from conditions that occurred in the past two millennia. During the period of study covered in this report (1967–2021), biotic communities responded in a variety of ways to subtle and marked changes in ponded-water depths, permanence, and salinity among the different wetland types in the study area. This report provides background information on the Cottonwood Lake study area and its context within the Prairie Pothole Region, documents techniques used to quantify environmental conditions and biotic communities, describes major trends that have been observed, presents significant findings as “lessons learned,” discusses recent modeling advances, and highlights key messages to managers. The Wetland Continuum concept was used as a framework to place research findings within an ecological context and to highlight the dynamic nature of prairie-pothole wetland ecosystems.

North Dakota↗

USGS2019

Hurricane Sandy impacts on coastal wetland resilience

The goal of this research was to evaluate the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on surface elevation trends in estuarine marshes located across the northeast region of the United States from Virginia to Maine using data from an opportunistic (in other words, not strategic) and collaborative network (from here on, an opportunistic network) of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations. First, we built a data-base of metadata for 965 individual stations from 96 unique geographical locations that included the location, geomorphic setting, and wetland type for each SET-MH station. The dominant estuarine settings included in the analyses were back-barrier lagoonal marshes and emergent marshes along embayments and tidal tributaries. We then calculated prestorm elevation trends to compare to poststorm elevation measurements to determine the storm impact on each station trend. We hypothesized that the effect of Hurricane Sandy on marsh elevation trends would differ by position relative to landfall (right or left) and distance from landfall in southern New Jersey, as both of these variables influence the presence or absence of storm surge as a result of the physical characteristics of tropical cyclones (in other words, strongest winds typically occur to the right of landfall). Storm surge was spatially less extensive and less deep (~1 meter [m]) in marshes located to the left (in other words, south) of landfall compared to marshes located to the right (in other words, north) of landfall where storm surge covered a larger area and was deeper (3–4 m). About 63 percent of 223 eligible stations had a poststorm trend that was similar to the prestorm trend (in other words, less than ±5 millimeters [mm]), indicating little storm impact on elevation trends at those sites. The remaining 37 percent of stations exhibited significant poststorm deviations from the prestorm trend (in other words, greater than ±5 mm). Of these, stations located to the left of landfall had a significant and greater deviation in their elevation trend, and the deviation was more likely to be positive (elevation gain) compared to marshes located to the right of landfall, which had a significant deviation in their elevation trend that was more likely to be negative (elevation loss). This finding is directly related to storm surge impacts on marsh sediment deposition, where deep storm surge (3–4 m) results in sediment deposition in habitats inland of coastal marshes but less so in the marshes themselves. Substrate compaction by the storm surge over-burden may have contributed to elevation loss, but this was not measured because sufficient marker horizon data were not available for analysis. In contrast, to the left of landfall the wind-driven flooding of sediment laden water pushed into the headwaters of rivers and small bays with an ~1 m surge, and resulted in more prevalent sediment deposition on the marsh surfaces and elevation gain. In general, the findings support previous research showing that the physical characteristics of the storm (for example, wind speed, storm surge height, impact angle of landfall) combined with the local wetland conditions (for example, marsh productivity, groundwater level, tide height) are important factors determining a storm’s impact on soil elevation, and that the soil elevation response can vary widely among multiple wetland sites impacted by the same storm and among different storms for the same wetland site. The final objective of this project was to create a framework using metadata from the opportunistic network of SET-MH stations that could be used to develop a strategic monitoring network designed to address specific climate change impacts and related phenomena identified by land managers and stakeholders. We evaluated the spatial distribution and density of SET-MH stations in relation to geographic coverage, marsh setting, availability of public land, and historical storm surge footprints and hurricane return intervals in order to identify gaps in our understanding of risk and our ability to assess it. Analyses revealed that the general geographic coverage of SET-MH stations is limited given the low percentage of marsh patches with stations, low density of stations, the clumped distribution of stations, and the often limited and uneven distribution of stations in wetlands with a high historical frequency of hurricane strikes and storm surge impacts. These findings can be used by managers and planners to inform the creation of a strategic monitoring network that can, in turn, inform management and adaptation plans for coastal resources in the region. Final plan designs will need to consider financial and infrastructural support required for station maintenance, as well as data collection and management over the long term.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Bibliography of literature pertaining to Long Valley Caldera and associated volcanic fields

On May 25-27, 1980, Long Valley caldera was rocked by four M=6 earthquakes that heralded the onset of a wave of seismic activity within the caldera which has continued through the present. Unrest has taken the form of seismic swarms, uplift of the resurgent dome, and areas of vegetation killed by increased CO2 emissions, all interpreted as resulting from magma injection into different levels beneath the caldera, as well as beneath Mammoth Mountain along the southwest rim of the caldera. Continuing economic development in the Mammoth Lakes area has swelled the local population, increasing the risk to people and property if an eruption were to occur. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been monitoring geophysical activity in the Long Valley area since the mid-1970s and continues to track the unrest in real time with a sophisticated network of geophysical sensors. Hazards information obtained by this monitoring is provided to local, State, and Federal officials and to the public through the Long Valley Observatory. The Long Valley area also was scientifically important before the onset of current unrest. Lying at the eastern foot of the Sierra Nevada, the deposits from this active volcanic system have provided fertile ground for research into Neogene tectonics, Quaternary geology and geomorphology, regional stratigraphy, and volcanology. In the early 1970s, intensive studies of the area began through the USGS Geothermal Investigations Program, owing to the presence of a large young silicic volcanic system. The paroxysmal eruption of Long Valley caldera about 760,000 years ago produced the Bishop Tuff and associated Bishop ash. The Bishop Tuff is a well-preserved ignimbrite deposit that has continued to provide new and developing insights into the dynamics of ignimbrite-forming eruptions. Another extremely important aspect of the Bishop Tuff is that it is the oldest known normally magnetized unit of the Brunhes Chron. Thus, the age of the Bishop Tuff is used to define the beginning of the Brunhes Chron and helps constrain the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary. The Bishop ash, which was dispersed as far east as Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas, provides an important tephrostratigraphic marker throughout the Western United States. The obsidian domes of both the Mono and Inyo Craters, which were produced by rhyolitic eruptions in the past 40,000 years, have been well studied, including extensive scientific drilling through the domes. Exploratory drilling to 3-km depth on the resurgent dome and subsequent instrumentation of the Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) have led to a number of important new insights. Scientific drilling also has been done within the Casa Diablo geothermal field, which, aside from drilling, has been commercially developed and is currently feeding 40 MW of power into the Southern California Edison grid. Studies in all the above-mentioned volcanic fields have contributed to the extensive scientific literature published on the Long Valley region. Although most of this scientific literature has been published since 1970, a significant amount of historical literature extends backward to the late 1800s. The purpose of this bibliography is to compile references pertaining to the Long Valley region from all time periods and all Earth science fields into a single listing, thus providing an easily accessible guide to the published literature for current and future researchers.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Defining conservation priorities for freshwater fishes according to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity

To date, the predominant use of systematic conservation planning has been to evaluate and conserve areas of high terrestrial biodiversity. Although studies in freshwater ecosystems have received recent attention, research has rarely considered the potential trade-offs between protecting different dimensions of biodiversity and the ecological processes that maintain diversity. We provide the first systematic prioritization for freshwaters (focusing on the highly threatened and globally distinct fish fauna of the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA) simultaneously considering scenarios of: taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity; contemporary threats to biodiversity (including interactions with nonnative species); and future climate change and human population growth. There was 75% congruence between areas of highest conservation priority for different aspects of biodiversity, suggesting that conservation efforts can concurrently achieve strong complementarity among all types of diversity. However, sizable fractions of the landscape were incongruent across conservation priorities for different diversity scenarios, underscoring the importance of considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity and highlighting catchments that contribute disproportionately to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity in the region. Regions of projected human population growth were not concordant with conservation priorities; however, higher human population abundance will likely have indirect effects on native biodiversity by increasing demand for water. This will come in direct conflict with projected reductions in precipitation and warmer temperatures, which have substantial overlap with regions of high contemporary diversity. Native and endemic fishes in arid ecosystems are critically endangered by both current and future threats, but our results highlight the use of systematic conservation planning for the optimal allocation of limited resources that incorporates multiple and complementary conservation values describing taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2004

Association between atmospheric circulation patterns and firn-ice core records from the Inilchek glacierized area, central Tien Shan, Asia

Glacioclimatological research in the central Tien Shan was performed in the summers of 1998 and 1999 on the South Inilchek Glacier at 5100-5460 m. A 14.36 m firn-ice core and snow samples were collected and used for stratigraphic, isotopic, and chemical analyses. The firn-ice core and snow records were related to snow pit measurements at an event scale and to meteorological data and synoptic indices of atmospheric circulation at annual and seasonal scales. Linear relationships between the seasonal air temperature and seasonal isotopic composition in accumulated precipitation were established. Changes in the ??18O air temperature relationship, in major ion concentration and in the ratios between chemical species, were used to identify different sources of moisture and investigate changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Precipitation over the central Tien Shan is characterized by the lowest ionic content among the Tien Shan glaciers and indicates its mainly marine origin. In seasons of minimum precipitation, autumn and winter, water vapor was derived from the and and semiarid regions in central Eurasia and contributed annual maximal solute content to snow accumulation in Tien Shan. The lowest content of major ions was observed in spring and summer layers, which represent maximum seasonal accumulation when moisture originates over the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean and Black Seas. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2016

Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.

California↗

USGS2014

Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: central basin hypoxia

Relieving phosphorus loading is a key management tool for controlling Lake Erie eutrophication. During the 1960s and 1970s, increased phosphorus inputs degraded water quality and reduced central basin hypolimnetic oxygen levels which, in turn, eliminated thermal habitat vital to cold-water organisms and contributed to the extirpation of important benthic macroinvertebrate prey species for fishes. In response to load reductions initiated in 1972, Lake Erie responded quickly with reduced water-column phosphorus concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, and bottom-water hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/l). Since the mid-1990s, cyanobacteria blooms increased and extensive hypoxia and benthic algae returned. We synthesize recent research leading to guidance for addressing this re-eutrophication, with particular emphasis on central basin hypoxia. We document recent trends in key eutrophication-related properties, assess their likely ecological impacts, and develop load response curves to guide revised hypoxia-based loading targets called for in the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Reducing central basin hypoxic area to levels observed in the early 1990s (ca. 2000 km 2 ) requires cutting total phosphorus loads by 46% from the 2003–2011 average or reducing dissolved reactive phosphorus loads by 78% from the 2005–2011 average. Reductions to these levels are also protective of fish habitat. We provide potential approaches for achieving those new loading targets, and suggest that recent load reduction recommendations focused on western basin cyanobacteria blooms may not be sufficient to reduce central basin hypoxia to 2000 km 2 .

Great Lakes;Lake Erie↗

USGS2001

Ancient drainage basin of the Tharsis region, Mars: Potential source for outflow channel systems and putative oceans or paleolakes

Paleotopographic reconstructions based on a synthesis of published geologic information and high-resolution topography, including topographic profiles, reveal the potential existence of an enormous drainage basin/aquifer system in the eastern part of the Tharsis region during the Noachian Period. Large topographic highs formed the margin of the gigantic drainage basin. Subsequently, lavas, sediments, and volatiles partly infilled the basin, resulting in an enormous and productive regional aquifer. The stacked sequences of water-bearing strata were then deformed locally and, in places, exposed by magmatic-driven uplifts, tectonic deformation, and erosion. This basin model provides a potential source of water necessary to carve the large outflow channel systems of the Tharsis and surrounding regions and to contribute to the formation of putative northern-plains ocean(s) and/or paleolakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2006

Wildfires threaten mercury stocks in northern soils

With climate change rapidly affecting northern forests and wetlands, mercury reserves once protected in cold, wet soils are being exposed to burning, likely triggering large releases of mercury to the atmosphere. We quantify organic soil mercury stocks and burn areas across western, boreal Canada for use in fire emission models that explore controls of burn area, consumption severity, and fuel loading on atmospheric mercury emissions. Though renowned as hotspots for the accumulation of mercury and its transformation to the toxic methylmercury, boreal wetlands might soon transition to hotspots for atmospheric mercury emissions. Estimates of circumboreal mercury emissions from this study are 15-fold greater than estimates that do not account for mercury stored in peat soils. Ongoing and projected increases in boreal wildfire activity due to climate change will increase atmospheric mercury emissions, contributing to the anthropogenic alteration of the global mercury cycle and exacerbating mercury toxicities for northern food chains. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2011

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 < rate < 1 m/yr) or erosion (rate < -1 m/yr) tend to occur for two sets of input scenarios. Stable shoreline change rates occur mainly for low rates of relative sea level rise and occur in low-vulnerability geomorphic settings. Rates indicating erosion result for cases where the rate of relative sea level rise is high and moderate-to-high vulnerability geomorphic settings occur. In contrast, accretion (rate > 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS1998

The Soufriere Hills eruption, Montserrat, British West Indies: Introduction to special section, part 1

The special section on the eruption of Soufriere Hills volcano is a collection of 24 papers that summarises the early scientific work of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. Part 1 of the special section, published in a previous issue of GRL , provided a sampling of the multidisciplinary investigations undertaken at Montserrat. The papers published in Part 1 included an overview of the eruption, investigations on seismicity, ground deformation studies, and petrology. The papers of this issue comprise Part 2 of the special section. These papers also cover a broad spectrum of topics, including various topics in seismology, petrology, pyroclastic flow models, gas chemistry, hydrothermal systems, and tsunami models. In general, papers in Part 1 may be said to be more observational- or data-orientated, and those of Part 2 more model-orientated, but indeed there is much overlap of descriptive material, data, and modelling within the individual contributions. Considered in total the collection presents a representative summary of the scientific effort carried out in Montserrat through much of 1997.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2014

The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange

Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon (C) stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) have the potential to be a strong positive feedback to climate. As the northern permafrost region experiences as much as a doubling of the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth, the vast amount of C in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases. Diagnostic and predictive estimates of high-latitude terrestrial C fluxes vary widely among different models depending on how dynamics in permafrost, and the seasonally thawed 'active layer' above it, are represented. Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of active layer dynamics on this 'permafrost carbon feedback' in recent decades, from 1970 to 2006, over the circumpolar domain of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Over this time period, the model estimates a mean increase of 6.8 cm in active layer thickness across the domain, which exposes a total of 11.6 Pg C of thawed SOM to decomposition. According to our simulation experiment, mobilization of this previously frozen C results in an estimated cumulative net source of 3.7 Pg C to the atmosphere since 1970 directly tied to active layer dynamics. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM accounts for the release of both CO 2 (4.0 Pg C) and CH 4 (0.03 Pg C), but is partially compensated by CO 2 uptake (0.3 Pg C) associated with enhanced net primary production of vegetation. This estimated net C transfer to the atmosphere from permafrost thaw represents a significant factor in the overall ecosystem carbon budget of the Pan-Arctic, and a non-trivial additional contribution on top of the combined fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2016

Delta smelt: Life history and decline of a once abundant species in the San Francisco Estuary

This paper reviews what has been learned about Delta Smelt and its status since the publication of The State of Bay-Delta Science, 2008 (Healey et al. 2008). The Delta Smelt is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary. Much of its historic habitat is no longer available and remaining habitat is increasingly unable to sustain the population. As a listed species living in the central node of California’s water supply system, Delta Smelt has been the focus of a large research effort to understand causes of decline and identify ways to recover the species. Since 2008, a remarkable record of innovative research on Delta Smelt has been achieved, which is summarized here. Unfortunately, research has not prevented the smelt’s continued decline, which is the result of multiple, interacting factors. A major driver of decline is change to the Delta ecosystem from water exports, resulting in reduced outflows and high levels of entrainment in the large pumps of the South Delta. Invasions of alien species, encouraged by environmental change, have also played a contributing role in the decline. Severe drought effects have pushed Delta Smelt to record low levels in 2014–2015. The rapid decline of the species and failure of recovery efforts demonstrate an inability to manage the Delta for the “co-equal goals” of maintaining a healthy ecosystem and providing a reliable water supply for Californians. Diverse and substantial management actions are needed to preserve Delta Smelt.

California↗

USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the Pacific region of the United States

Although spatial information describing the supply and quality of surface water is critical for managing water resources for human uses and for ecological health, monitoring is expensive and cannot typically be done over large scales or in all streams or waterbodies. To address the need for such data, the U.S. Geological Survey developed SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) for the Pacific region of the U.S. for streamflow and three water-quality constituents–total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment, based on a decadal time frame centered on the year 2012. The domain for these models included the Columbia River basin, the Puget Sound, the coastal drainages of Washington, Oregon, and California, and the Central Valley of California. Landscape runoff (represented by the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) was the largest source of streamflow, wastewater discharge, and atmospheric deposition were the largest contributors to total nitrogen yield from the Pacific region, wastewater discharge was the largest contributor to total phosphorus yield, and forest land was the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield. Watersheds with relatively high water yields also generally had relatively high yields of total nitrogen, total phosphorous, and suspended sediment–except where there were large contributions from developed land and wastewater discharge. The data used in this study, including many that improved upon existing national data or were compiled specifically for the Pacific region, characterized the complex hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the region more completely than previous models. By using these new datasets, this investigation was able to account for the complex network of water diversions and transfers, quantify the contribution of nutrients from different sources of livestock manure, discern a signal from unpaved logging roads in the suspended-sediment yields from forested coastal watersheds, show how recent wildfire disturbance influences phosphorus and sediment delivery to streams, and how sediment delivery to streams is also sensitive to the intensity of cattle grazing. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Pacific region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings to Pacific coast estuaries where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Pacific Region↗

USGS2022

Southeast Utah Group climate and drought adaptation report: Exposure and perennial grass sensitivity

National Park Service (NPS) managers face growing challenges resulting from the effects of climate change. In particular, as temperatures rise in coming decades, natural resource management in the western United States must cope with expectations for elevated severity and frequency of droughts. These challenges are particularly pronounced for vegetation managers in dryland environments. Developing adaptive strategies requires specific information about the expected magnitude of change in climate and drought conditions as well as insights into how those changes will affect important vegetation resources. This report describes research focused on Southeast Utah Group (SEUG) park units designed to provide information about exposure and sensitivity of perennial grasses to aridification. Analyses at larger regional scales are also reported for context and comparison. This report is a product of an ongoing climate adaptation collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NPS, and Northern Arizona University. The study it summarizes contributes quantitative ingredients for vulnerability assessments that are needed in the Climate-Smart Conservation framework. As such, the results informed a series of climate adaptation workshops conducted between 2018 and 2021 for Colorado Plateau scientists and managers. This is a giant step forward in science-informed management. The information in this report can be used to craft management strategies that can be implemented at the right place and time for individual species of concern.

Colorado, Utah↗