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USGS2012

Grain-size segregation and levee formation in geophysical mass flows

Data from large-scale debris-flow experiments are combined with modeling of particle-size segregation to explain the formation of lateral levees enriched in coarse grains. The experimental flows consisted of 10 m 3 of water-saturated sand and gravel, which traveled ∼80 m down a steeply inclined flume before forming an elongated leveed deposit 10 m long on a nearly horizontal runout surface. We measured the surface velocity field and observed the sequence of deposition by seeding tracers onto the flow surface and tracking them in video footage. Levees formed by progressive downslope accretion approximately 3.5 m behind the flow front, which advanced steadily at ∼2 m s −1 during most of the runout. Segregation was measured by placing ∼600 coarse tracer pebbles on the bed, which, when entrained into the flow, segregated upwards at ∼6–7.5 cm s −1 . When excavated from the deposit these were distributed in a horseshoe-shaped pattern that became increasingly elevated closer to the deposit termination. Although there was clear evidence for inverse grading during the flow, transect sampling revealed that the resulting leveed deposit was strongly graded laterally, with only weak vertical grading. We construct an empirical, three-dimensional velocity field resembling the experimental observations, and use this with a particle-size segregation model to predict the segregation and transport of material through the flow. We infer that coarse material segregates to the flow surface and is transported to the flow front by shear. Within the flow head, coarse material is overridden, then recirculates in spiral trajectories due to size-segregation, before being advected to the flow edges and deposited to form coarse-particle-enriched levees.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Elementary theory of bed-sediment entrainment by debris flows and avalanches

Analyses of mass and momentum exchange between a debris flow or avalanche and an underlying sediment layer aid interpretations and predictions of bed-sediment entrainment rates. A preliminary analysis assesses the behavior of a Coulomb slide block that entrains bed material as it descends a uniform slope. The analysis demonstrates that the block's momentum can grow unstably, even in the presence of limited entrainment efficiency. A more-detailed, depth-integrated continuum analysis of interacting, deformable bodies identifies mechanical controls on entrainment efficiency, and shows that entrainment rates satisfy a jump condition that involves shear-traction and velocity discontinuities at the flow-bed boundary. Explicit predictions of the entrainment rate E result from making reasonable assumptions about flow velocity profiles and boundary shear tractions. For Coulomb-friction tractions, predicted entrainment rates are sensitive to pore fluid pressures that develop in bed sediment as it is overridden. In the simplest scenario the bed sediment liquefies completely, and the entrainment-rate equation reduces to E = 2 μ 1 gh 1 cos θ (1 − λ 1 )/ , where θ is the slope angle, μ 1 is the flow's Coulomb friction coefficient, h 1 is its thickness, λ 1 is its degree of liquefaction, and is its depth-averaged velocity. For values of λ 1 ranging from 0.5 to 0.8, this equation predicts entrainment rates consistent with rates of 0.05 to 0.1 m/s measured in large-scale debris-flow experiments in which wet sediment beds liquefied almost completely. The propensity for bed liquefaction depends on several factors, including sediment porosity, permeability, and thickness, and rates of compression and shear deformation that occur when beds are overridden.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2012

Monitoring glacier surface seismicity in time and space using Rayleigh waves

Sliding glaciers and brittle ice failure generate seismic body and surface wave energy characteristic to the source mechanism. Here we analyze continuous seismic recordings from an array of nine short-period passive seismometers located on Bench Glacier, Alaska (USA) (61.033°N, 145.687°W). We focus on the arrival-time and amplitude information of the dominant Rayleigh wave phase. Over a 46-hour period we detect thousands of events using a cross-correlation based event identification method. Travel-time inversion of a subset of events (7% of the total) defines an active crevasse, propagating more than 200 meters in three hours. From the Rayleigh wave amplitudes, we estimate the amount of volumetric opening along the crevasse as well as an average bulk attenuation ( = 42) for the ice in this part of the glacier. With the remaining icequake signals we establish a diurnal periodicity in seismicity, indicating that surface run-off and subglacial water pressure changes likely control the triggering of these surface events. Furthermore, we find that these events are too weak (i.e., too noisy) to locate individually. However, stacking individual events increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the waveforms, implying that these periodic sources are effectively stationary during the recording period.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2012

Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters of a steep catchment

Debris flows can dramatically increase their volume, and hence their destructive potential, by entraining sediment. Yet quantitative constraints on rates and mechanics of sediment entrainment by debris flows are limited. Using an in situ sensor network in the headwaters of a natural catchment we measured flow and bed properties during six erosive debris-flow events. Despite similar flow properties and thicknesses of bed sediment entrained across all events, time-averaged entrainment rates were significantly faster for bed sediment that was saturated prior to flow arrival compared with rates for sediment that was dry. Bed sediment was entrained from the sediment-surface downward in a progressive fashion and occurred during passage of dense granular fronts as well as water-rich, inter-surge flow. En masse failure of bed sediment along the sediment-bedrock interface was never observed. Large-magnitude, high-frequency fluctuations in total normal basal stress were dissipated within the upper 5 cm of bed sediment. Within this near surface layer, concomitant fluctuations in Coulomb frictional resistance are expected, irrespective of the influence of pore fluid pressure or fluctuations in shear stress. If the near-surface sediment was wet as it was overridden by a flow, additional large-magnitude, high-frequency pore pressure fluctuations were measured in the near-surface bed sediment. These pore pressure fluctuations propagated to depth at subsonic rates and in a diffusive manner. The depth to which large excess pore pressures propagated was typically less than 10 cm, but scaled as ( D / f i ) 0.5 , in which D is the hydraulic diffusivity and f i is the frequency of a particular pore pressure fluctuation. Shallow penetration depths of granular-normal-stress fluctuations and excess pore pressures demonstrate that only near-surface bed sediment experiences the full dynamic range of effective-stress fluctuations, and as a result, can be more easily entrained than deeper sediment. These data provide robust tests for mechanical models of entrainment and demonstrate that a debris flow over wet bed sediment will be larger than the same flow over dry bed sediment.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

Florida↗
USGS2012

Effects of river regulation on aeolian landscapes, Colorado River, southwestern USA

Connectivity between fluvial and aeolian sedimentary systems plays an important role in the physical and biological environment of dryland regions. This study examines the coupling between fluvial sand deposits and aeolian dune fields in bedrock canyons of the arid to semiarid Colorado River corridor, southwestern USA. By quantifying significant differences between aeolian landscapes with and without modern fluvial sediment sources, this work demonstrates for the first time that the flow- and sediment-limiting effects of dam operations affect sedimentary processes and ecosystems in aeolian landscapes above the fluvial high water line. Dune fields decoupled from fluvial sand supply have more ground cover (biologic crust and vegetation) and less aeolian sand transport than do dune fields that remain coupled to modern fluvial sand supply. The proportion of active aeolian sand area also is substantially lower in a heavily regulated river reach (Marble–Grand Canyon, Arizona) than in a much less regulated reach with otherwise similar environmental conditions (Cataract Canyon, Utah). The interconnections shown here among river flow and sediment, aeolian sand transport, and biologic communities in aeolian dunes demonstrate a newly recognized means by which anthropogenic influence alters dryland environments. Because fluvial–aeolian coupling is common globally, it is likely that similar sediment-transport connectivity and interaction with upland ecosystems are important in other dryland regions to a greater degree than has been recognized previously.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site‐level synthesis

[1] Ecosystem models are important tools for diagnosing the carbon cycle and projecting its behavior across space and time. Despite the fact that ecosystems respond to drivers at multiple time scales, most assessments of model performance do not discriminate different time scales. Spectral methods, such as wavelet analyses, present an alternative approach that enables the identification of the dominant time scales contributing to model performance in the frequency domain. In this study we used wavelet analyses to synthesize the performance of 21 ecosystem models at 9 eddy covariance towers as part of the North American Carbon Program's site‐level intercomparison. This study expands upon previous single‐site and single‐model analyses to determine what patterns of model error are consistent across a diverse range of models and sites. To assess the significance of model error at different time scales, a novel Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error. Failing to account for observation error leads to a misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. These analyses show that model error (1) is largest at the annual and 20–120 day scales, (2) has a clear peak at the diurnal scale, and (3) shows large variability among models in the 2–20 day scales. Errors at the annual scale were consistent across time, diurnal errors were predominantly during the growing season, and intermediate‐scale errors were largely event driven. Breaking spectra into discrete temporal bands revealed a significant model‐by‐band effect but also a nonsignificant model‐by‐site effect, which together suggest that individual models show consistency in their error patterns. Differences among models were related to model time step, soil hydrology, and the representation of photosynthesis and phenology but not the soil carbon or nitrogen cycles. These factors had the greatest impact on diurnal errors, were less important at annual scales, and had the least impact at intermediate time scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2012

Spatial patterns of soil nitrification and nitrate export from forested headwaters in the northeastern United States

Nitrogen export from small forested watersheds is known to be affected by N deposition but with high regional variability. We studied 10 headwater catchments in the northeastern United States across a gradient of N deposition (5.4 - 9.4 kg ha -1 yr -1) to determine if soil nitrification rates could explain differences in stream water NO 3 - export. Average annual export of two years (October 2002 through September 2004) varied from 0.1 kg NO 3 --N ha -1 yr -1 at Cone Pond watershed in New Hampshire to 5.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 at Buck Creek South in the western Adirondack Mountains of New York. Potential net nitrification rates and relative nitrification (fraction of inorganic N as NO 3 -) were measured in Oa or A soil horizons at 21-130 sampling points throughout each watershed. Stream NO 3 - export was positively related to nitrification rates (r 2 = 0.34, p = 0.04) and the relative nitrification (r 2 = 0.37, p = 0.04). These relationships were much improved by restricting consideration to the 6 watersheds with a higher number of rate measurements (59-130) taken in transects parallel to the streams (r 2 of 0.84 and 0.70 for the nitrification rate and relative nitrification, respectively). Potential nitrification rates were also a better predictor of NO 3 - export when data were limited to either the 6 sampling points closest to the watershed outlet (r 2 = 0.75) or sampling points <250 m from the watershed outlet (r 2 = 0.68). The basal area of conifer species at the sampling plots was negatively related to NO 3 - export. These spatial relationships found here suggest a strong influence of near-stream and near-watershed-outlet soils on measured stream NO 3 - export. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2012

Linkages between denitrification and dissolved organicmatter quality, Boulder Creek watershed, Colorado

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) fuels the majority of in-stream microbial processes, including the removal of nitrate via denitrification. However, little is known about how the chemical composition of DOM influences denitrification rates. Water and sediment samples were collected across an ecosystem gradient, spanning the alpine to plains, in central Colorado to determine whether the chemical composition of DOM was related to denitrification rates. Laboratory bioassays measured denitrification potentials using the acetylene block technique and carbon mineralization via aerobic bioassays, while organic matter characteristics were evaluated using spectroscopic and fractionation methods. Denitrification potentials under ambient and elevated nitrate concentrations were strongly correlated with aerobic respiration rates and the percent mineralized carbon, suggesting that information about the aerobic metabolism of a system can provide valuable insight regarding the ability of the system to additionally reduce nitrate. Multiple linear regressions (MLR) revealed that under elevated nitrate concentrations denitrification potentials were positively related to the presence of protein-like fluorophores and negatively related to more aromatic and oxidized fractions of the DOM pool. Using MLR, the chemical composition of DOM, carbon, and nitrate concentrations explained 70% and 78% of the observed variability in denitrification potential under elevated and ambient nitrate conditions, respectively. Thus, it seems likely that DOM optical properties could help to improve predictions of nitrate removal in the environment. Finally, fluorescence measurements revealed that bacteria used both protein and humic-like organic molecules during denitrification providing further evidence that larger, more aromatic molecules are not necessarily recalcitrant in the environment.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Peat accumulation in drained thermokarst lake basins in continuous, ice-rich permafrost, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Thermokarst lakes and peat-accumulating drained lake basins cover a substantial portion of Arctic lowland landscapes, yet the role of thermokarst lake drainage and ensuing peat formation in landscape-scale carbon (C) budgets remains understudied. Here we use measurements of terrestrial peat thickness, bulk density, organic matter content, and basal radiocarbon age from permafrost cores, soil pits, and exposures in vegetated, drained lake basins to characterize regional lake drainage chronology, C accumulation rates, and the role of thermokarst-lake cycling in carbon dynamics throughout the Holocene on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Most detectable lake drainage events occurred within the last 4,000 years with the highest drainage frequency during the medieval climate anomaly. Peat accumulation rates were highest in young (50–500 years) drained lake basins (35.2 g C m −2 yr −1 ) and decreased exponentially with time since drainage to 9 g C m −2 yr −1 in the oldest basins. Spatial analyses of terrestrial peat depth, basal peat radiocarbon ages, basin geomorphology, and satellite-derived land surface properties (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF)) from Landsat satellite data revealed significant relationships between peat thickness and mean basin NDVI or MNF. By upscaling observed relationships, we infer that drained thermokarst lake basins, covering 391 km 2 (76%) of the 515 km 2 study region, store 6.4–6.6 Tg organic C in drained lake basin terrestrial peat. Peat accumulation in drained lake basins likely serves to offset greenhouse gas release from thermokarst-impacted landscapes and should be incorporated in landscape-scale C budgets.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Persistence of soil organic matter in eroding versus depositional landform positions

Soil organic matter (SOM) processes in dynamic landscapes are strongly influenced by soil erosion and sedimentation. We determined the contribution of physical isolation of organic matter (OM) inside aggregates, chemical interaction of OM with soil minerals, and molecular structure of SOM in controlling storage and persistence of SOM in different types of eroding and depositional landform positions. By combining density fractionation with elemental and spectroscopic analyses, we showed that SOM in depositional settings is less transformed and better preserved than SOM in eroding landform positions. However, which environmental factors exert primary control on storage and persistence of SOM depended on the nature of the landform position considered. In an annual grassland watershed, protection of SOM by physical isolation inside aggregates and chemical association of organic matter (complexation) with soil minerals, as assessed by correlation with radiocarbon concentration, were more effective in the poorly drained, lowest-lying depositional landform positions, compared to well-drained landform positions in the upper parts of the watershed. Results of this study demonstrated that processes of soil erosion and deposition are important mechanisms of long-term OM stabilization.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2012

Landscape controls on total and methyl Hg in the Upper Hudson River basin, New York, USA

Approaches are needed to better predict spatial variation in riverine Hg concentrations across heterogeneous landscapes that include mountains, wetlands, and open waters. We applied multivariate linear regression to determine the landscape factors and chemical variables that best account for the spatial variation of total Hg (THg) and methyl Hg (MeHg) concentrations in 27 sub-basins across the 493 km 2 upper Hudson River basin in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. THg concentrations varied by sixfold, and those of MeHg by 40-fold in synoptic samples collected at low-to-moderate flow, during spring and summer of 2006 and 2008. Bivariate linear regression relations of THg and MeHg concentrations with either percent wetland area or DOC concentrations were significant but could account for only about 1/3 of the variation in these Hg forms in summer. In contrast, multivariate linear regression relations that included metrics of (1) hydrogeomorphology, (2) riparian/wetland area, and (3) open water, explained about 66% to >90% of spatial variation in each Hg form in spring and summer samples. These metrics reflect the influence of basin morphometry and riparian soils on Hg source and transport, and the role of open water as a Hg sink. Multivariate models based solely on these landscape metrics generally accounted for as much or more of the variation in Hg concentrations than models based on chemical and physical metrics, and show great promise for identifying waters with expected high Hg concentrations in the Adirondack region and similar glaciated riverine ecosystems.

New York↗
USGS2012

Carbon and sediment accumulation in the Everglades (USA) during the past 4000 years: rates, drivers, and sources of error

Tropical and sub-tropical wetlands are considered to be globally important sources for greenhouse gases but their capacity to store carbon is presumably limited by warm soil temperatures and high rates of decomposition. Unfortunately, these assumptions can be difficult to test across long timescales because the chronology, cumulative mass, and completeness of a sedimentary profile are often difficult to establish. We therefore made a detailed analysis of a core from the principal drainage outlet of the Everglades of South Florida, to assess these problems and determine the factors that could govern carbon accumulation in this large sub-tropical wetland. Accelerator mass spectroscopy dating provided direct evidence for both hard-water and open-system sources of dating errors, whereas cumulative mass varied depending upon the type of method used. Radiocarbon dates of gastropod shells, nevertheless, seemed to provide a reliable chronology for this core once the hard-water error was quantified and subtracted. Long-term accumulation rates were then calculated to be 12.1 g m -2 yr -1 for carbon, which is less than half the average rate reported for northern and tropical peatlands. Moreover, accumulation rates remained slow and relatively steady for both organic and inorganic strata, and the slow rate of sediment accretion ( 0.2 mm yr -1 ) tracked the correspondingly slow rise in sea level (0.35 mm yr -1 ) reported for South Florida over the past 4000 years. These results suggest that sea level and the local geologic setting may impose long-term constraints on rates of sediment and carbon accumulation in the Everglades and other wetlands.

Florida↗
USGS2012

Spatiotemporal analysis of black spruce forest soils and implications for the fate of C

Post-fire storage of carbon (C) in organic-soil horizons was measured in one Canadian and three Alaskan chronosequences in black spruce forests, together spanning stand ages of nearly 200 yrs. We used a simple mass balance model to derive estimates of inputs, losses, and accumulation rates of C on timescales of years to centuries. The model performed well for the surface and total organic soil layers and presented questions for resolving the dynamics of deeper organic soils. C accumulation in all study areas is on the order of 20–40 gC/m 2 / yr for stand ages up to ∼200 yrs. Much larger fluxes, both positive and negative, are detected using incremental changes in soil C stocks and by other studies using eddy covariance methods for CO 2 . This difference suggests that over the course of stand replacement, about 80% of all net primary production (NPP) is returned to the atmosphere within a fire cycle, while about 20% of NPP enters the organic soil layers and becomes available for stabilization or loss via decomposition, leaching, or combustion. Shifts toward more frequent and more severe burning and degradation of deep organic horizons would likely result in an acceleration of the carbon cycle, with greater CO 2 emissions from these systems overall.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Reoccupation of floodplains by rivers and its relation to the age structure of floodplain vegetation

River channel dynamics over many decades provide a physical control on the age structure of floodplain vegetation as a river occupies and abandons locations. Floodplain reoccupation by a river, in particular, determines the interval of time during which vegetation can establish and mature. A general framework for analyzing floodplain reoccupation and a time series model are developed and applied to five alluvial rivers in the United States. Channel dynamics in these rivers demonstrate time-scale dependence with short-term oscillation in active channel area in response to floods and subsequent vegetation growth and progressive lateral movement that accounts for much of the cumulative area occupied by the rivers over decades. Rivers preferentially reoccupy locations recently abandoned causing a decreasing probability of reoccupation with time since abandonment. For a typical case, a river is 10 times more likely to reoccupy an area it abandoned in the past decade than it is to reoccupy an area it abandoned 30 yrs ago. The decreasing probability of reoccupation over time is consistent with observations of persistent stands of late seral stage floodplain forest. A power function provides a robust approach for estimating the cumulative area occupied by a river and the age structure of riparian forests resulting from a specific historical sequence of streamflow in comparison to either linear or exponential alternatives.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Dissolved organic carbon and chromophoric dissolved organic matter properties of rivers in the USA

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) parameters were measured over a range of discharge in 30 U.S. rivers, covering a diverse assortment of fluvial ecosystems in terms of watershed size and landscape drained. Relationships between CDOM absorption at a range of wavelengths (a 254 , a 350 , a 440 ) and DOC in the 30 watersheds were found to correlate strongly and positively for the majority of U.S. rivers. However, four rivers (Colorado, Colombia, Rio Grande and St. Lawrence) exhibited statistically weak relationships between CDOM absorption and DOC. These four rivers are atypical, as they either drain from the Great Lakes or experience significant impoundment of water within their watersheds, and they exhibited values for dissolved organic matter (DOM) parameters indicative of autochthonous or anthropogenic sources or photochemically degraded allochthonous DOM and thus a decoupling between CDOM and DOC. CDOM quality parameters in the 30 rivers were found to be strongly correlated to DOM compositional metrics derived via XAD fractionation, highlighting the potential for examining DOM biochemical quality from CDOM measurements. This study establishes the ability to derive DOC concentration from CDOM absorption for the majority of U.S. rivers, describes characteristics of riverine systems where such an approach is not valid, and emphasizes the possibility of examining DOM composition and thus biogeochemical function via CDOM parameters. Therefore, the usefulness of CDOM measurements, both laboratory-based analyses and in situ instrumentation, for improving spatial and temporal resolution of DOC fluxes and DOM dynamics in future studies is considerable in a range of biogeochemical studies.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2012

Uncovering the nonadiabatic response of geosynchronous electrons to geomagnetic disturbance

We describe an energy spectrum method for scaling electron integral flux, which is measured at a constant energy, to phase space density at a constant value of the first adiabatic invariant which removes much of the variation due to reversible adiabatic effects. Applying this method to nearly a solar cycle (1995 - 2006) of geosynchronous electron integral flux (E>2.0MeV) from the GOES satellites, we see that much of the diurnal variation in electron phase space density at constant energy can be removed by the transformation to phase space density at constant μ (4000 MeV/G). This allows us a clearer picture of underlying non-adiabatic electron population changes due to geomagnetic activity. Using scaled phase space density, we calculate the percentage of geomagnetic storms resulting in an increase, decrease or no change in geosynchronous electrons as 38%, 7%, and 55%, respectively. We also show examples of changes in the electron population that may be different than the unscaled fluxes alone suggest. These examples include sudden electron enhancements during storms which appear during the peak of negative Dst for μ-scaled phase space density, contrary to the slow increase seen during the recovery phase for unscaled phase space density for the same event.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Problem of the Love‐Gannon relation between the asymmetric disturbance field and Dst

Love and Gannon (2009) discovered that statistically, over a fifty year period the difference in the dawn and dusk disturbance‐field H component at low latitudes (hourly averaged) is linearly proportional to Dst. If the difference is designated by δ DD in units of nT/R E , then the Love‐Gannon (L‐G) relation is δ DD = − 0.2 Dst. At any time departures from the relation can be large. Nonetheless, the relation is evident for all values of Dst and persists throughout magnetic storms, both the main phase and the recovery phase. The Love‐Gannon discovery presents a problem to current understanding of the relation between the causes of δ DD and Dst because the dawn dusk asymmetry in the disturbance field is presumably governed by a long‐established magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling theory which predicts a characteristic time scale (the shielding time) of less than an hour whereas the characteristic time scale for Dst (the ring current decay time) is more like ten hours. Thus, without forcing both time scales toward each other to the limits of their ranges, a linear proportionality between δ DD and Dst cannot be derived from the current understanding of the causes of the asymmetry and the ring current. This conclusion is the paper's main contribution. In addition, we attempt to get around the conflict of time scales by looking at other possibilities for generating δ DD that depend directly on the ring current. The most promising of these is the possibility that the ring current decay mechanism creates a quasi‐permanent, local‐time modification of the ring current compared to what it would be in the absence of the decay mechanism and that this modification causes a field‐aligned current that closes through the ionosphere and generates the asymmetry δ DD . This idea has the virtue of coupling the asymmetry directly to the ring current and of accounting for the persistence of the L‐G proportionality through the recovery phase of magnetic storms.

Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics↗