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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources

Spatial variability and landscape controls of near-surface permafrost within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

The distribution of permafrost is important to understand because of permafrost's influence on high-latitude ecosystem structure and functions. Moreover, near-surface (defined here as within 1 m of the Earth's surface) permafrost is particularly susceptible to a warming climate and is generally poorly mapped at regional scales. Subsequently, our objectives were to (1) develop the first-known binary and probabilistic maps of near-surface permafrost distributions at a 30 m resolution in the Alaskan Yukon River Basin by employing decision tree models, field measurements, and remotely sensed and mapped biophysical data; (2) evaluate the relative contribution of 39 biophysical variables used in the models; and (3) assess the landscape-scale factors controlling spatial variations in permafrost extent. Areas estimated to be present and absent of near-surface permafrost occupy approximately 46% and 45% of the Alaskan Yukon River Basin, respectively; masked areas (e.g., water and developed) account for the remaining 9% of the landscape. Strong predictors of near-surface permafrost include climatic indices, land cover, topography, and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus spectral information. Our quantitative modeling approach enabled us to generate regional near-surface permafrost maps and provide essential information for resource managers and modelers to better understand near-surface permafrost distribution and how it relates to environmental factors and conditions.

Alaska↗

A spatiotemporal optimization engine for prescribed burning in the Southeast US

Many ecosystems in the Southeast US are dependent upon frequent low-intensity surface fires to sustain native biodiversity, ecosystem services, and endangered species populations. Today, landscape-scale prescribed fire is required to manage these systems for conservation objectives and to mitigate wildland fire risk. Successful application of prescribed fire in this region requires careful planning and assessment of the risks and tradeoffs involved when deciding whether or not to conduct a burn. Many of these risks are closely tied to ambient environmental conditions and are reflected in sets of ‘prescription’ parameters that define safe and effective operating conditions to meet objectives or regulatory requirements. To facilitate effective decision making and acknowledge growing uncertainties related to climate change effects on wildland fire operations, we developed a spatiotemporal optimization engine to identify near-term optimal burning opportunities for prescribed fire implementation. By mining historical 3-day numerical weather forecasts and observation-based weather data for 2015–2021, we have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model for forecast verification that provides calibrated daily weather forecasts and joint uncertainty estimates on meteorological variables of interest, with the latter serving as a measure of risk associated with prescribed fire activities. Burn allocation decisions are then optimized by considering this risk jointly with the utility of burning a particular habitat parcel. The initial iteration of the optimization engine is demonstrated through a case study of short-term meteorological conditions for the Eglin Air Force Base, located in Florida, USA. Results indicate agreement between the optimization engine and the observed past decision-making, with the largest divergences likely arising primarily from differences between utility functions presumed important and used to develop the optimization engine versus the true utility functions driving management behavior in practice.

Florida↗

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch ( Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration ( R H ) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat absorption (3.3 ± 1.24 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 ) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the climate system.

Alaska↗

Evaluation of the Source and Transport of High Nitrate Concentrations in Ground Water, Warren Subbasin, California

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the Town of Yucca Valley in the Warren subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin, California. An imbalance between ground-water recharge and pumpage caused ground-water levels in the subbasin to decline by as much as 300 feet from the late 1940s through 1994. In response, the local water district, Hi-Desert Water District, instituted an artificial recharge program in February 1995 using imported surface water to replenish the ground water. The artificial recharge program resulted in water-level recoveries of as much as 250 feet in the vicinity of the recharge ponds between February 1995 and December 2001; however, nitrate concentrations in some wells also increased from a background concentration of 10 milligrams per liter to more than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 44 milligrams per liter (10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen). The objectives of this study were to: (1) evaluate the sources of the high-nitrate concentrations that occurred after the start of the artificial-recharge program, (2) develop a ground-water flow and solute-transport model to better understand the source and transport of nitrates in the aquifer system, and (3) utilize the calibrated models to evaluate the possible effect of a proposed conjunctive-use project. These objectives were accomplished by collecting water-level and water-quality data for the subbasin and assessing changes that have occurred since artificial recharge began. Collected data were used to calibrate the ground-water flow and solute-transport models. Data collected for this study indicate that the areal extent of the water-bearing deposits is much smaller (about 5.5 square miles versus 19 square miles) than that of the subbasin. These water-bearing deposits are referred to in this report as the Warren ground-water basin. Faults separate the ground-water basin into five hydrogeologic units: the west, the midwest, the mideast, the east and the northeast hydrogeologic units. Water-quality analyses indicate that septage from septic tanks is the primary source of the high-nitrate concentrations measured in the Warren ground-water basin. Water-quality and stable-isotope data, collected after the start of the artificial recharge program, indicate that mixing occurs between imported water and native ground water, with the highest recorded nitrate concentrations in the midwest and the mideast hydrogeologic units. In general, the timing of the increase in measured nitrate concentrations in the midwest hydrogeologic unit is directly related to the distance of the monitoring well from a recharge site, indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations is related to the artificial recharge program. Nitrate-to-chloride and nitrogen-isotope data indicate that septage is the source of the measured increase in nitrate concentrations in the midwest and the mideast hydrogeologic units. Samples from four wells in the Warren ground-water basin were analyzed for caffeine and selected human pharmaceutical products; these analyses suggest that septage is reaching the water table. There are two possible conceptual models that explain how high-nitrate septage reaches the water table: (1) the continued downward migration of septage through the unsaturated zone to the water table and (2) rising water levels, a result of the artificial recharge program, entraining septage in the unsaturated zone. The observations that nitrate concentrations increase in ground-water samples from wells soon after the start of the artificial recharge program in 1995 and that the largest increase in nitrate concentrations occur in the midwest and mideast hydrogeologic units where the largest increase in water levels occur indicate the validity of the second conceptual model (rising water levels). The potential nitrate concentration resulting from a water-level rise in the midwest and mideast hydrogeologic units was estimated using a simple mixing-cell model. The estimated value is within the range of concentrations measured in samples from wells, further indicating the validity of the second conceptual model. A ground-water flow model and a solute-transport model were developed for the Warren ground-water basin for the period 1956-2001. MODFLOW-96 was used for the ground-water flow model and MOC3D was used for the solute-transport model. The model cell size is about 500 feet by 500 feet and the models were discretized vertically into three layers. The models were calibrated using a trial-and-error approach using water-level and nitrate-concentration data collected between 1956-2001. In order to better match the measured data, low fault hydraulic characteristic values were required, thereby compartmentalizing the ground-water basin. In addition, it was necessary to parameterize the specific yield distribution for the top model layer where unconfined ground-water conditions occur into three homogeneous zones. Separate sets of specific- yield values were needed to simulate the drawdown and subsequent water-level recovery. In addition, the calibrated natural recharge was about 83 acre-feet per year. The entrainment of unsaturated-zone septage was simulated as recharge having an associated nitrate concentration. The volume of recharge was a function of the measured water-level rise between 1994-98 and the moisture content of the unsaturated zone. The nitrate concentration of the recharge water was a weighted function of the assumed nitrate concentration in the infiltrating water associated with the overlying land use. The simulated hydraulic head and nitrate concentration results were in good agreement with the measured data indicating that the mechanism for the increase in nitrate concentrations was rising water levels entraining high-nitrate septage in the unsaturated-zone. The calibrated models were used to simulate the possible effects of a planned conjunctive-use project in the western part of the ground-water basin. The simulated project included the addition of a new recharge pond and a new extraction well. In addition, recharge at two existing recharge ponds was increased and three existing production wells were pumped, treated in a nitrate-removal facility, and used for water supply. The simulated hydraulic heads increased in the west, the mideast, and parts of the east hydrogeologic units; however, the simulated hydraulic heads decreased in the midwest and northeast hydrogeologic units. The simulated nitrate concentrations increased to above the MCL of 44 milligrams per liter (10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) in parts of the west as a result of the increase in simulated hydraulic head. The simulated nitrate concentrations decreased in part of the midwest hydrogeologic unit as a result of the artificial recharge and pumping from the nitrate-removal wells. The simulated nitrate concentrations increased to above the MCL of 44 milligrams per liter in part of the mideast and parts of the east hydrogeologic units beneath commercial land-use areas.

California↗

Data management challenges in species distribution modeling

An important component in the fields of ecology and conservation biology is understanding the environmental conditions and geographic areas that are suitable for a given species to inhabit. A common tool in determining such areas is species distribution modeling which uses computer algorithms to determine the spatial distribution of organisms. Most commonly the correlative relationships between the organism and environmental variables are the primary consideration. The data requirements for this type of modeling consist of known presence and possibly absence locations of the species as well as the values of environmental or climatic covariates thought to define the species habitat suitability at these locations. These covariate data are generally extracted from remotely sensed imagery, interpolated/gridded historical climate data, or downscaled climate model output. Traditionally, ecologists and biologists have constructed species distribution models using workflows and data that reside primarily on their local workstations or networks. This workflow is becoming challenging as scientists increasingly try to use these modeling techniques to inform management decisions under different climate change scenarios. This challenge stems from the fact that remote sensing products, gridded historical climate, and downscaled climate models are not only increasing in spatial and temporal resolution but proliferating as well. Any rigorous assessment of uncertainty requires a computationally intensive sensitivity analysis accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The scientists fitting these models generally do not have the background in computer science required to take advantage of recent advances in web-service based data acquisition, remote high-powered data processing, or scientific workflow systems. Ecologists in the field of modeling are in need of a tractable platform that abstracts the inherent computational complexity required to incorporate the burgeoning field of coupled climate and ecological response modeling. In this paper we describe the computational challenges in species distribution modeling and solutions using scientific workflow systems. We focus on the Software for Assisted Species Modeling (SAHM) a package within VisTrails, an open-source scientific workflow system.

Bulletin of the Technical Committee on Data Engine↗

Assessing the vulnerability of a municipal well field to contamination in a karst aquifer

Proposed expansion of extractive lime-rock mines near the Miami-Dade County Northwest well field and Everglades wetland areas has garnered intense scrutiny by government, public, environmental stakeholders, and the media because of concern that mining will increase the risk of pathogen contamination. Rock mines are excavated to the same depth as the well field's primary producing zone. The underlying karst Biscayne aquifer is a triple-porosity system characterized by (1) a matrix of interparticle porosity and separate vug porosity; (2) touching-vug porosity that forms preferred, stratiform passageways; and, less commonly, (3) conduit porosity formed by thin solution pipes, bedding-plane vugs, and cavernous vugs. Existing ground-water flow and particle tracking models do not provide adequate information regarding the ability the aquifer to limit the advective movement of pathogens and other contaminants. Chemical transport and colloidal mobility properties have been delineated using conservative and microsphere-surrogate tracers for Cryptosporidium parvum. Forced-gradient tests were executed by introducing conservative tracers into injection wells located 100 m (328 ft) from a municipal-supply well. Apparent mean advective velocity between the wells is one to two orders of magnitude greater than previously measured. Touching-vug, stratiform flow zones are efficient pathways for tracer movement at the well field. The effective porosity for a continuum model between the point of injection and tracer recovery ranges from 2 to 4 percent and is an order of magnitude smaller than previously assumed. Existing well-field protection zones were established using porosity estimates based on specific yield. The effective, or kinematic, porosity of a Biscayne aquifer continuum model is lower than the total porosity, because high velocities occur along preferential flow paths that result in faster times of travel than can be represented with the ground-water flow equation. Tracer tests indicate that the relative ease of contaminant movement to municipal supply wells is much greater than previously considered.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗

Using multiple metal mixture models to predict toxicity of riverine sediment porewater to the benthic life stage of juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus)

Five metal mixture dose–response models were used to predict the toxicity of porewater to young sturgeon at areas of interest in the Upper Columbia River (WA, USA/BC, Canada) and to evaluate these models as tools for risk assessments. Dose components of metal mixture models included exposure to free metal ion activities or metal accumulation by biotic ligands or humic acid, and links of dose to response used logistic equations, independent joint action equations, or additive toxicity functions. Laboratory bioassay studies of single metal exposures to juvenile sturgeon, porewater collected in situ in the fast-flowing Upper Columbia River, and metal mixture models were used to evaluate toxicity. The five metal mixture models were very similar in their predictions of adverse response of juvenile sturgeon and in identifying copper (Cu) as the metal responsible for the most toxic conditions. Although the modes of toxic action and the 20% effective concentration values were different among the dose models, predictions of adverse response were consistent among models because all doses were tied to the same biological responses. All models indicated that 56% ± 5% of 122 porewater samples were predicted to have <20% adverse response, 25% ± 5% of samples were predicted to have 20% to 80% adverse response, and 20% ± 4% were predicted to have >80% adverse response in juvenile sturgeon. The approach of combining bioassay toxicity data, compositions of field porewater, and metal mixture models to predict lack of growth and survival of aquatic organisms due to metal toxicity is an important tool that can be integrated with other information (e.g., survey studies of organism populations, life cycle and behavior characteristics, sediment geochemistry, and food sources) to assess risks to aquatic organisms in metal-enriched ecosystems. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1–12. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry↗

Harvest of long-tailed ducks from an important hunting location on Lake Michigan

Annual waterfowl harvest in North America is estimated through a collaborative and strategic process, with federal harvest surveys the primary method of estimation. Sea duck hunters participating in federal harvest surveys represent a small proportion of the overall waterfowl hunting population, limiting the utility of harvest estimates for sea ducks. The long-tailed duck ( Clangula hyemalis ) is one such species. To partially address the paucity of long-tailed duck harvest survey information, we conducted in-person hunter surveys from 1 November through 4 December 2016 at a boat launch in Two Rivers, Wisconsin, USA (Lake Michigan), an important area for long-tailed duck harvest within the state. Hunters were present on 15 of 21 survey days, and we surveyed occupants of 62 individual hunting boats on 127 occasions. Long-tailed ducks were the most common (97%) of the 1,431 sea ducks reported harvested by hunters. Hunter harvest of long-tailed ducks averaged 3.8 (95% CI = 3.4, 4.1; range = 0–6) long-tailed ducks/hunter/day. We used count models to evaluate the effects of environmental variables on hunter participation and harvest of long-tailed ducks. Wave height was the most influential predictor variable for hunter participation; an information criterion-based best model (wave height + temperature) indicated that hunter participation decreased by 91.9% (95% CI = 79.3–97.1%) for each 1-m increase in wave height. Long-tailed duck harvest was positively associated with air temperature; the relationship indicated a 9.5% (95% CI = 6.2–12.9%) increase in long-tailed duck harvest with each degree increase in temperature. Our results contribute to the understanding of waterfowl hunter participation, hunter preferences, and harvest on Lake Michigan and can inform managers as they assess regulatory frameworks for sea duck hunting.

Wisconsin↗

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g. historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. Here, we conduct a scenario impact assessment to determine the potential impact of climate change scenarios on the rates at which lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are authorized for emergency biomass removal. Grassland biomass on CRP lands is authorized for ‘emergency’ harvesting for agricultural use when precipitation for the last four months falls below 40 percent of the normal, or ‘historical’ mean, precipitation for that four-month period. We develop and analyze scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections show the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28 ± 0.96%, according to long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario reflecting continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and experienced a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario reflecting rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario impact analysis indicates that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP will be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change, unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

Scientific and social landscapes: New frameworks and forums for water management and sustainability

The Two Decades of Water Law and Policy Reform conference examines the agenda for reforming and improving water law that has developed during the past two decades in the West, assesses what has (and has not) been accomplished by pursuing these reforms, and explores lessons and implications for future water law and policy. The papers and discussion provide analysis and lessons that can guide the new administration, Congress, federal agencies, state governments, and communities as they seek to find policy solutions to the challenges posed by the tremendous economic and demographic changes occurring in the West, in order to ensure the sustainability of the region’s unique environment. Specific sessions focus on reforms such as improving the scientific and technical basis for water management, water conservation and efficiency, protecting environmental values in meeting water demands, and creating new models of governance for water issues.

Conference Paper↗

New high resolution airborne geophysical surveys in Nevada And California for geothermal and mineral resource studies

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to acquire high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric data to support geologic and geophysical mapping and modeling that will assist geothermal and critical mineral studies. Coordinated with these efforts are programs supporting geologic mapping and airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys that yield detailed surface topographic models of the terrain over the same regions spanned by the geophysical surveys. The collaboration leverages resources from the USGS and DOE to acquire large regional datasets that will provide fundamental data necessary to map surface and subsurface geology and structure to benefit mineral and resource program objectives of both agencies. Such regionally uniform datasets are important for geothermal research to assist in identifying geologically favorable settings and as invaluable inputs in predictive models targeting undiscovered resources that use knowledge-driven (e.g., play fairway analysis) or data-driven approaches (e.g., machine-learning methods) to reduce risk associated with resource exploration. These data will also serve a wide range of other related activities from hazard (earthquake, volcano, landslide, environmental) and resource (water, mineral, energy) studies, to mapping and land management. Surveys were conducted in two areas that were selected because they host substantial geothermal and mineral potential in California and Nevada. The data will aid several ongoing USGS and DOE projects aimed at characterizing geothermal and mineral systems, understanding the factors controlling their occurrence, and improving future national resource assessments. The first of these surveys (referred to as GeoDAWN) was collected over northern and western Nevada and eastern California and spans areas of major resource potential associated with the Walker Lane and western Great Basin. This includes Clayton Valley, which hosts substantial lithium brine and clay resources, and the Humboldt Mafic Complex, which constitutes a potentially important resource of critical minerals (including cobalt, rare earth elements, platinum group elements, iron, chromium, nickel, and copper). The second survey area (referred to as GeoFlight) is focused over the Salton Trough in southern California that contains some of the largest and hottest known hydrothermal systems in the world, as well as a substantial lithium brine resource that could potentially meet the nation’s lithium demand for electric vehicles. Data from both surveys will be made publicly available through USGS publications and online data repositories. Future efforts under this collaboration are presently being evaluated and may involve acquisition of other data sets such as airborne gravity, electromagnetic or hyperspectral data to address research targets.

Conference Paper↗

Overview of a workshop on screening methods for detecting potential (anti-) estrogenic/androgenic chemicals in wildlife

The U.S. Congress has passed legislation requiring the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) to develop, validate, and implement screening tests for identifying potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals within 3 years. To aid in the identification of methods suitable for this purpose, the U.S. EPA, the Chemical Manufacturers Association, and the World Wildlife Fund sponsored several workshops, including the present one, which dealt with wildlife species. This workshop was convened with 30 international scientists representing multiple disciplines in March 1997 in Kansas City, Missouri, USA. Participants at the meeting identified methods in terms of their ability to indicate (anti-) estrogenic/androgenic effects, particularly in the context of developmental and reproductive processes. Data derived from structure-activity relationship models and in vitro test systems, although useful in certain contexts, cannot at present replace in vivo tests as the sole basis for screening. A consensus was reached that existing mammalian test methods (e.g., with rats or mice) generally are suitable as screens for assessing potential (anti-) estrogenic/ androgenic effects in mammalian wildlife. However, due to factors such as among-class variation in receptor structure and endocrine function, it is uncertain if these mammalian assays would be of broad utility as screens for other classes of vertebrate wildlife. Existing full and partial life-cycle tests with some avian and fish species could successfully identify chemicals causing endocrine disruption; however, these long-term tests are not suitable for routine screening. However, a number of short-term tests with species from these two classes exist that could serve as effective screening tools for chemicals inducing (anti-) estrogenic/androgenic effects. Existing methods suitable for identifying chemicals with these mechanisms of action in reptiles and amphibians are limited, but in the future, tests with species from these classes may prove highly effective as screens. In the case of invertebrate species, too little is known at present about the biological role of estrogens and androgens in reproduction and development to recommend specific assays.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Budget analysis of Escherichia coli at a southern Lake Michigan Beach

Escherichia coli (EC) concentrations at two beaches impacted by river plume dynamics in southern Lake Michigan were analyzed using three-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport models. The relative importance of various physical and biological processes influencing the fate and transport of EC were examined via budget analysis and a first-order sensitivity analysis of model parameters. The along-shore advective fluxofEC(CFU/m 2 ·s)was found to be higher compared to its crossshore counterpart; however, the sum of diffusive and advective components was of a comparable magnitude in both directions showing the importance of cross-shore exchange in EC transport. Examination of individual terms in the EC mass balance equation showed that vertical turbulent mixing in the water column dominated the overall EC transport for the summer conditions simulated. Dilution due to advection and diffusion accounted for a large portion of the total EC budget in the nearshore, and the net EC loss rate within the water column (CFU/m 3 ·s) was an order of magnitude smaller compared to the horizontal and vertical transport rates. This result has important implications for modeling EC at recreational beaches; however, the assessment of the magnitude of EC loss rate is complicated due to the strong coupling between vertical exchange and depth-dependent EC loss processes such as sunlight inactivation and settling. Sensitivity analysis indicated that solar inactivation has the greatest impact on EC loss rates. Although these results are site-specific, they clearly bring out the relative importance of various processes involved.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Adverse moisture events predict seasonal abundance of Lyme disease vector ticks (Ixodes scapularis)

Background : Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in north temperate regions worldwide, affecting an estimated 300,000 people annually in the United States alone. The incidence of LB is correlated with human exposure to its vector, the blacklegged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ). To date, attempts to model tick encounter risk based on environmental parameters have been equivocal. Previous studies have not considered (1) the differences between relative humidity (RH) in leaf litter and at weather stations, (2) the RH threshold that affects nymphal blacklegged tick survival, and (3) the time required below the threshold to induce mortality. We clarify the association between environmental moisture and tick survival by presenting a significant relationship between the total number of tick adverse moisture events (TAMEs - calculated as microclimatic periods below a RH threshold) and tick abundance each year. Methods : We used a 14-year continuous statewide tick surveillance database and corresponding weather data from Rhode Island (RI), USA, to assess the effects of TAMEs on nymphal populations of I. scapularis . These TAMEs were defined as extended periods of time (>8 h below 82% RH in leaf litter). We fit a sigmoid curve comparing weather station data to those collected by loggers placed in tick habitats to estimate RH experienced by nymphal ticks, and compiled the number of historical TAMEs during the 14-year record. Results : The total number of TAMEs in June of each year was negatively related to total seasonal nymphal tick densities, suggesting that sub-threshold humidity episodes >8 h in duration naturally lowered nymphal blacklegged tick abundance. Furthermore, TAMEs were positively related to the ratio of tick abundance early in the season when compared to late season, suggesting that lower than average tick abundance for a given year resulted from tick mortality and not from other factors. Conclusions : Our results clarify the mechanism by which environmental moisture affects blacklegged tick populations, and offers the possibility to more accurately predict tick abundance and human LB incidence. We describe a method to forecast LB risk in endemic regions and identify the predictive role of microclimatic moisture conditions on tick encounter risk.

Rhode Island↗

Quantitative mineral resource assessment of copper, molybdenum, gold, and silver in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the Andes Mountains of South America

Quantitative information on the general locations and amounts of undiscovered porphyry copper resources of the world is important to exploration managers, land-use and environmental planners, economists, and policy makers. This publication contains the results of probabilistic estimates of the amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the Andes Mountains of South America. The methodology used to make these estimates is called the 'Three-Part Form'. It was developed to explicitly express estimates of undiscovered resources and associated uncertainty in a form that allows economic analysis and is useful to decisionmakers. The three-part form of assessment includes: (1) delineation of tracts of land where the geology is permissive for porphyry copper deposits to form; (2) selection of grade and tonnage models appropriate for estimating grades and tonnages of the undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in each tract; and (3) estimation of the number of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in each tract consistent with the grade and tonnage model. A Monte Carlo simulation computer program (EMINERS) was used to combine the probability distributions of the estimated number of undiscovered deposits, the grades, and the tonnages of the selected model to obtain the probability distributions for undiscovered metals in each tract. These distributions of grades and tonnages then can be used to conduct economic evaluations of undiscovered resources in a format usable by decisionmakers. Economic evaluations are not part of this report. The results of this assessment are presented in two principal parts. The first part identifies 26 regional tracts of land where the geology is permissive for the occurrence of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits of Phanerozoic age to a depth of 1 km below the Earth's surface. These tracts are believed to contain most of South America's undiscovered resources of copper. The second part presents probabilistic estimates of the amounts of copper, molybdenum, gold, and silver in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in each tract. The study also provides tables showing the location, tract number, and age (if available) of discovered deposits and prospects. For each of the 26 permissive tracts delineated in this study, summary information is provided on: (1) the rationale for delineating the tract; (2) the rationale for choosing the mineral deposit model used to assess the tract; (3) discovered deposits and prospects; (4) exploration history; and (5) the distribution of undiscovered deposits in the tract. The scale used to evaluate geologic information and draw tracts is 1:1,000,000.

Open-File Report↗

Water quality and ecological condition of urban streams in Independence, Missouri, June 2005 through December 2008

To identify the sources of selected constituents in urban streams and better understand processes affecting water quality and their effects on the ecological condition of urban streams and the Little Blue River in Independence, Missouri the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Independence Water Pollution Control Department initiated a study in June 2005 to characterize water quality and evaluate the ecological condition of streams within Independence. Base-flow and stormflow samples collected from five sites within Independence, from June 2005 to December 2008, were used to characterize the physical, chemical, and biologic effects of storm runoff on the water quality in Independence streams and the Little Blue River. The streams draining Independence-Rock Creek, Sugar Creek, Mill Creek, Fire Prairie Creek, and the Little Blue River-drain to the north and the Missouri River. Two small predominantly urban streams, Crackerneck Creek [12.9-square kilometer (km2) basin] and Spring Branch Creek (25.4-km2 basin), were monitored that enter into the Little Blue River between upstream and downstream monitoring sites. The Little Blue River above the upstream site is regulated by several reservoirs, but streamflow is largely uncontrolled. The Little Blue River Basin encompasses 585 km2 with about 168 km2 or 29 percent of the basin lying within the city limits of Independence. Water-quality samples also were collected for Rock Creek (24.1-km2 basin) that drains the western part of Independence. Data collection included streamflow, physical properties, dissolved oxygen, chloride, metals, nutrients, common organic micro-constituents, and fecal indicator bacteria. Benthic macroinvertebrate community surveys and habitat assessments were conducted to establish a baseline for evaluating the ecological condition and health of streams within Independence. Additional dry-weather screenings during base flow of all streams draining Independence were conducted to identify point-source discharges and other sources of potential contamination. Regression models were used to estimate continuous and annual flow-weighted concentrations, loadings, and yields for chloride, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and Escherichia coli bacteria densities. Base-flow and stormflow water-quality samples were collected at five sites within Independence. Base-flow samples for Rock Creek and two tributary streams to the Little Blue River exceeded recommended U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standards for the protection of aquatic life for total nitrogen and total phosphorus in about 90 percent of samples, whereas samples collected at two Little Blue River sites exceeded both the total nitrogen and total phosphorus standards less often, about 30 percent of the time. Dry-weather screening identified a relatively small number (14.0 percent of all analyses) of potential point-source discharges for total chlorine, phenols, and anionic surfactants. Stormflow had larger median measured concentrations of total common organic micro-constituents than base flow. The four categories of common organic micro-constituents with the most total detections in stormflow were pesticides (100 percent), polyaromatic hydrocarbons and combustion by-products (99 percent), plastics (93 percent), and stimulants (91 percent). Most detections of common organic micro-constituents were less than 2 micrograms per liter. Median instantaneous Escherichia coli densities for stormflow samples showed a 21 percent increase measured at the downstream site on the Little Blue River from the sampled upstream site. Using microbial source-tracking methods, less than 30 percent of Escherichia coli bacteria in samples were identified as having human sources. Base-flow and stormflow data were used to develop regression equations with streamflow and continuous water-quality data to estimate daily concentrations, loads, and yields of various water-quality contaminants.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluation of the Feasibility of Freshwater Injection Wells in Mitigating Ground-Water Quality Degradation at Selected Well Fields in Duval County, Florida

The Fernandina permeable zone contains brackish water in parts of Duval County, Florida. Upward flow from the Fernandina permeable zone to the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer increases chloride concentrations in ground water in parts of Duval County. Numerical models of the ground-water flow system in parts of Duval, St. Johns, and Clay Counties, Florida, were used to (1) estimate the vertical flows between the low-quality water of the Fernandina permeable zone and the high-quality water of the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer in the vicinity of Deerwood 3 and Brierwood well fields, based on 2000 ground-water withdrawal rates; (2) determine how such vertical flows change as several scenarios of injection, withdrawal, and intervening rest periods are simulated in the two well fields; and (3) evaluate the effects of changes in less certain hydraulic parameters on the vertical flows between the Fernandina permeable zone and the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer. The ground-water flow system was simulated with a four-layer model using MODFLOW-2000, which was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The first layer consists of specified-head cells simulating the surficial aquifer system with prescribed water levels. The second layer simulates the Upper Floridan aquifer. The third and fourth layers simulate the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer and the Fernandina permeable zone, respectively. Average flow conditions in 2000 were approximated with a steady-state simulation. The changes in upward flow from the Fernandina permeable zone due to periods of injections and withdrawals were analyzed with transient simulations. The grid used for the ground-water flow model was uniform and composed of square 250-foot cells, with 400 columns and 400 rows. The active model area encompasses about 360 square miles in parts of Duval, St. Johns, and Clay Counties, Florida. Ground-water flow simulation was limited vertically to the bottom of the Fernandina permeable zone. The steady-state ground-water flow model was calibrated using time-averaged 2000 heads at 20 control points. Environmental-water heads in the Fernandina permeable zone were calculated for wells with variable water density. Transmissivity of the Upper Floridan aquifer, the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer, and the Fernandina permeable zone, and the leakance of the intermediate confining unit, the middle semiconfining unit, and the semiconfining unit were obtained from regional ground-water flow models and adjusted until a reasonable fit between simulated and computed heads was obtained. The calibrated hydraulic properties from the steady-state ground-water flow model, and the calibrated storage coefficient from the transient model, were used to simulate hypothetical transient scenarios of injection, withdrawal, and intervening rest periods to assess changes in flow between the Fernandina permeable zone and the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer. Based on the simulated flows between the Fernandina permeable zone and the upper zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer and the 18 million gallons per day of water available for injection, the reversal of the prevailing upward flow from the Fernandina permeable zone was not achieved. However, steady-state and transient simulations indicate that the upward flow of water from the Fernandina permeable zone could be reduced by as much as 64 percent, from 0.11 to 0.04 cubic foot per second, if only injection periods are simulated.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Integrating habitat suitability and climate constraints to predict nonnative fish invasion risk for U.S. streams and inland lakes

Introduction: Nonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment. Methods: In this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions. Results: Florida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ) showing particularly high invasion potential. Discussion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

conterminous United States↗