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USGS2012

High-resolution digital elevation dataset for Crater Lake National Park and vicinity, Oregon, based on LiDAR survey of August-September 2010 and bathymetric survey of July 2000

Crater Lake partially fills the caldera that formed approximately 7,700 years ago during the eruption of a 12,000-foot volcano known as Mount Mazama. The caldera-forming or climactic eruption of Mount Mazama devastated the surrounding landscape, left a thick deposit of pumice and ash in adjacent valleys, and spread a blanket of volcanic ash as far away as southern Canada. Because the Crater Lake region is potentially volcanically active, knowledge of past events is important to understanding hazards from future eruptions. Similarly, because the area is seismically active, documenting and evaluating geologic faults is critical to assessing hazards from earthquakes. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey was awarded funding for high-precision airborne LiDAR ( Li ght D etection A nd R anging) data collection at several volcanoes in the Cascade Range through the Oregon LiDAR Consortium, administered by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI). The Oregon LiDAR Consortium contracted with Watershed Sciences, Inc., to conduct the data collection surveys. Collaborating agencies participating with the Oregon LiDAR Consortium for data collection in the Crater Lake region include Crater Lake National Park (National Park Service) and the Federal Highway Administration. In the immediate vicinity of Crater Lake National Park, 798 square kilometers of LiDAR data were collected, providing a digital elevation dataset of the ground surface beneath forest cover with an average resolution of 1.6 laser returns/m 2 and both vertical and horizontal accuracies of ±5 cm. The LiDAR data were mosaicked in this report with bathymetry of the lake floor of Crater Lake, collected in 2000 using high-resolution multibeam sonar in a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, Crater Lake National Park, and the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping at the University of New Hampshire. The bathymetric survey collected 16 million soundings with a spatial resolution of 2 meters using an EM1002 system owned and operated by C&C Technologies, Inc. The combined LiDAR and bathymetric dataset has a cell size of 1 meter and will contribute to understanding past volcanic events and their deposits, recognizing of faults and volcanic landforms, and quantifying landscape modification during and after the next volcanic eruption at Crater Lake.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

President elect's message

The first morning home the day after I became president of SWS at the annual meeting in Denver, I note the wilting of my garden and the grumpiness of my cats as the dawn of my new reality. The extra hours that I will spend as president of SWS will manifest itself as more cat and garden unhappiness as travel and responsibilities grow. The cats gleefully blast out of the door into the backyard, because they have been cooped up indoors during the Denver meeting. My husband is more supportive than the cats and garden. So far, being the president of SWS recreates for me both the feelings of boundless possibilities I felt when president of my 4-H club when the changing future was in my hands, and of the heavy responsibility of my temporary summer chairmanship of my university department. “I am ready”, I think as I sleepily sip coffee that morning. My observations at the Denver annual meeting led to my realization that SWS is changing in sync with the breakneck speed of the world around us. Importantly, the new Student Section is contributing new insights into all aspects of SWS. Our students are the way forward for SWS, so it is incredibly exciting to witness increasing student involvement. Please, if you are a student and you want to participate in SWS activities, contact me. Other new things emerging at the Denver meeting included the Traditional Ecological Knowledge initiative, which will be an important step in our internationalization efforts. Also related to internationalization, we are linking regional South American and African meetings to SWS section initiatives. Our PCP program is working toward offering certifications to members with training outside of North America, which will be of incredible value to these members. Other great ideas are emerging from the Denver meeting. The chapter presidents and section chairs are creating consortia to foster intra-meeting exchange of ideas. The New Media committee is offering a venue for member-created videos and phone apps. And now, we prepare for the 40th anniversary of SWS in 2020 with the planning of various celebrations as well as special issues on emerging issues in wetland science, and the history of SWS. Much of my year will be spent shepherding these and other SWS activities, which will come together at the next annual meeting in Baltimore (May 28-31, 2019). In this world of electronic communication, the networking time at the annual meetings is precious. Hope to see you in Baltimore. A long time ago, SWS membership information was stored in a shoebox. Despite the substantial changes in our organization since then, I view SWS as a shoebox-full of members that I want to know personally. If you have ideas or concerns in the next year, please contact me: middletonb@usgs.gov Much of my year will be spent shepherding these and other SWS activities, which will come together at the meeting in Baltimore (May 28-31, 2019). In this world of electronic communication, the networking time at the annual meetings is precious.

Wetland Science & Practice↗

USGS2019

The tangled tale of Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption as told by geochemical monitoring

Changes in magma chemistry that affect eruptive behavior occur during many volcanic eruptions, but typical analytical techniques are too slow to contribute to hazard monitoring. We used rapid energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to measure diagnostic elements in lava samples within a few hours of collection during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. The geochemical data provided important information for field crews and civil authorities in advance of changing hazards during the eruption. The appearance of hotter magma was recognized several days before the onset of voluminous eruptions of fast-moving flows that destroyed hundreds of homes. We identified, in near-real time, interactions between older, colder, stored magma – including the unexpected eruption of andesite – and hotter magma delivered during dike emplacement.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Spatial variability of phytoplankton in a shallow tidal freshwater system reveals complex controls on abundance and community structure

Estuaries worldwide are undergoing changes to patterns of aquatic productivity because of human activities that alter flow, impact sediment delivery and thus the light field, and contribute nutrients and contaminants like pesticides and metals. These changes can influence phytoplankton communities, which in turn can alter estuarine food webs. We used multiple approaches-including high-resolution water quality mapping, synoptic sampling, productivity and nitrogen uptake rates, Lagrangian parcel tracking, enclosure experiments and bottle incubations-over a short time period to take a “spatial snapshot” of conditions in the northern region of the San Francisco Estuary (California, USA) to examine how environmental drivers like light availability, nutrients, water residence time, and contaminants affect phytoplankton abundance and community attributes like size distribution, taxonomic structure, and nutrient uptake rates. Zones characterized by longer residence time (15–60 days) had higher chlorophyll-a concentrations (9 ± 4 µg L −1 ) and were comprised primarily of small phytoplankton cells (<5 µm, 74 ± 8%), lower ammonium concentrations (1 ± 0.8 µM), higher nitrate uptake rates, and higher rates of potential carbon productivity. Conversely, zones characterized by shorter residence time (1–14 days) had higher ammonium concentration (13 ± 5 µM) and lower chlorophyll-a concentration (5 ± 1 µg L −1 ) with diatoms making up a larger percent contribution. Longer residence time, however, did not result in the accumulation of large (>5 µm) cells considered important to pelagic food webs. Rather, longer residence time zones had a phytoplankton community comprised primarily of small cells, particularly picocyanobacteria that made up 38 ± 17% of the chlorophyll-a – nearly double the concentration seen in shorter residence time zones (22 ± 7% picocyanobacterial of chlorophyll-a). Our results suggest that water residence time in estuaries may have an effect as large or larger than that experimentally demonstrated for light, contaminants, or nutrients.

California↗

USGS2001

Nitric acid dry deposition to conifer forests: Niwot Ridge spruce-fir-pine study

The dry deposition velocity of nitric acid, Vd(HNO3), over a 12-m (mean height) spruce-fir forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado was estimated during 13 daytime periods using the flux-gradient approach. Turbulence intensity at this site is high (mean u* of 0.65ms-1 with u of 2.9ms-1) and contributed to the large observed Vd(HNO3). The overriding contributor is identified to be the small aerodynamic needle width of the conifer trees. Two cases had inflated Vd(HNO3) due to height-differentiated nitric acid loss to soil-derived particle surfaces. Not considering these cases, the mean Vd(HNO3) was 7.6cms-1. The mean laminar boundary layer resistance (Rb) was found to be 7.8sm-1 (of similar magnitude to that of the aerodynamic resistance, 8.5sm-1). The data-determined Rb is bracketed by two theoretical estimates of the mean Rb, 5.9 and 8.6sm-1, that include consideration of the small canopy length scale (aerodynamic needle width), 1mm or less, at this conifer forest. However, the poor correlation of data-determined Rb values with both sets of theoretical estimates indicates that measurement error needs to be reduced and/or improved formulations of theoretical Rb values are in order. The large observed Vd(HNO3) at this conifer forest site is attributed to high turbulence intensity, and, especially, to small aerodynamic needle width. Copyright ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2013

Evidence for deposition of 10 million tonnes of impact spherules across four continents 12,800 y ago

Airbursts/impacts by a fragmented comet or asteroid have been proposed at the Younger Dryas onset (12.80 ± 0.15 ka) based on identification of an assemblage of impact-related proxies, including microspherules, nanodiamonds, and iridium. Distributed across four continents at the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB), spherule peaks have been independently confirmed in eight studies, but unconfirmed in two others, resulting in continued dispute about their occurrence, distribution, and origin. To further address this dispute and better identify YDB spherules, we present results from one of the largest spherule investigations ever undertaken regarding spherule geochemistry, morphologies, origins, and processes of formation. We investigated 18 sites across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, performing nearly 700 analyses on spherules using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy for geochemical analyses and scanning electron microscopy for surface microstructural characterization. Twelve locations rank among the world’s premier end-Pleistocene archaeological sites, where the YDB marks a hiatus in human occupation or major changes in site use. Our results are consistent with melting of sediments to temperatures >2,200 °C by the thermal radiation and air shocks produced by passage of an extraterrestrial object through the atmosphere; they are inconsistent with volcanic, cosmic, anthropogenic, lightning, or authigenic sources. We also produced spherules from wood in the laboratory at >1,730 °C, indicating that impact-related incineration of biomass may have contributed to spherule production. At 12.8 ka, an estimated 10 million tonnes of spherules were distributed across ∼50 million square kilometers, similar to well-known impact strewnfields and consistent with a major cosmic impact event.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2021

Spatiotemporal patterns of northern lake formation since the last glacial maximum

The northern mid- to high-latitudes have the highest total number and area of lakes on Earth. Lake origins in these regions are diverse, but to a large extent coupled to glacial, permafrost, and peatland histories. The synthesis of 1207 northern lake initiation records presented here provides an analog for rapid landscape-level change in response to climate warming, and its subsequent attenuation by physical and biological feedback mechanisms. Our compilation reveals two peaks in northern lake formation, 13,200 and 10,400 years ago, both following rapid increases in North Atlantic air temperature. Placing our findings within the context of existing paleoenvironmental records, we suggest that solar insolation-driven changes in climate (temperature and water balance) that led to deglaciation and permafrost thaw likely contributed to high rates of northern lake formation during the last Deglacial period. However, further landscape development and stabilization dramatically reduced rates of lake formation beginning ∼10,000 years ago. This suggests that temperature alone may not control future lake development; rather, multiple factors must align to enable a landscape to respond with an increase in lake area. We propose that land surfaces strongly geared toward increased lake formation were highly conditioned by glaciation. Thus, it is unlikely that warming this century will cause lake formation as rapid or as widespread as that during the last Deglacial period.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2013

Comprehensive assessment of hormones, phytoestrogens, and estrogenic activity in an anaerobic swine waste lagoon

In this study, the distribution of steroid hormones, phytoestrogens, and estrogenic activity was thoroughly characterized within the anaerobic waste lagoon of a typical commercial swine sow operation. Three independent rounds of sampling were conducted in June 2009, April 2010, and February 2011. Thirty-seven analytes in lagoon slurry and sludge were assessed using LC/MS-MS, and yeast estrogen screen was used to determine estrogenic activity. Of the hormone analytes, steroidal estrogens were more abundant than androgens or progesterone, with estrone being the predominant estrogen species. Conjugated hormones were detected only at low levels. The isoflavone metabolite equol was by far the predominant phytoestrogen species, with daidzein, genistein, formononetin, and coumestrol present at lower levels. Phytoestrogens were often more abundant than steroidal estrogens, but contributed minimally towards total estrogenic activity. Analytes were significantly elevated in the solid phases of the lagoon; although low observed log KOC values suggest enhanced solubility in the aqueous phase, perhaps due to dissolved or colloidal organic carbon. The association with the solid phase, as well as recalcitrance of analytes to anaerobic degradation, results in a markedly elevated load of analytes and estrogenic activity within lagoon sludge. Overall, findings emphasize the importance of adsorption and transformation processes in governing the fate of these compounds in lagoon waste, which is ultimately used for broadcast application as a fertilizer.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2004

Trends in the sediment yield of the Sacramento River, California, 1957-2001

Human activities within a watershed, such as agriculture, urbanization, and dam building, may affect the sediment yield from the watershed. Because the equilibrium geomorphic form of an estuary is dependent in part on the sediment supply from the watershed, anthropogenic activities within the watershed have the potential to affect estuary geomorphology. The Sacramento River drains the northern half of California’s Central Valley and is the primary source of sediment to San Francisco Bay. In this paper, it is shown that the delivery of suspended-sediment from the Sacramento River to San Francisco Bay has decreased by about one-half during the period 1957 to 2001. Many factors may be contributing to the trend in sediment yield, including the depletion of erodible sediment from hydraulic mining in the late 1800s, trapping of sediment in reservoirs, riverbank protection, altered land-uses (such as agriculture, grazing, urbanization, and logging), and levees. This finding has implications for planned tidal wetland restoration activities around San Francisco Bay, where an adequate sediment supply will be needed to build subsided areas to elevations typical of tidal wetlands as well as to keep pace with projected sea-level rise. In a broader context, the study underscores the need to address anthropogenic impacts on watershed sediment yield when considering actions such as restoration within downstream depositional areas.

California↗

USGS2003

Geologic map and digital database of the Redlands 7.5' quadrangle, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

This geologic database of the Redlands 7.5' quadrangle was prepared by the Southern California Areal Mapping Project (SCAMP), a regional geologic-mapping project sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey. The database was developed as a contribution to the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program's National Geologic Map Database, and is intended to provide a general geologic setting of the Redlands quadrangle. The database and map provide information about earth materials and geologic structures, including faults and folds that have developed in the quadrangle due to complexities in the San Andreas Fault system. The Redlands 7.5' quadrangle contains earth materials and structures that provide insight into the late Cenozoic geologic evolution of the southern California Inland Empire region. Important stratigraphic and structural elements include (1) the modern trace of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults and (2) late Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary materials and geologic structures that formed during the last million years or so and that record complex geologic interactions within the San Andreas Fault system. These materials and the structures that deform them provide the geologic framework for investigations of earthquake hazards and ground-water recharge and subsurface flow. Geologic information contained in the Redlands database is general-purpose data that is applicable to land-related investigations in the earth and biological sciences. The term "general-purpose" means that all geologic-feature classes have minimal information content adequate to characterize their general geologic characteristics and to interpret their general geologic history. However, no single feature class has enough information to definitively characterize its properties and origin. For this reason the database cannot be used for site-specific geologic evaluations, although it can be used to plan and guide investigations at the site-specific level. This summary pamphlet discusses major categories of surficial materials in the Redlands quadrangle, and provides a conceptual framework and basis for how geologicmap units containing such materials are recognized and correlated.

California↗

USGS2018

Development of a species status assessment process for decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2003

Comment on “Isotopic fractionation between Fe(III) and Fe(II) in aqueous solutions” by Clark Johnson et al., [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 195 (2002) 141–153]

In a recent contribution [1] , Johnson et al. reported the equilibrium isotope fractionation factor between dissolved Fe(II) and Fe(III) in aqueous solutions at pH=2.5 and 5.5. They suggest that because the iron isotope fractionation observed in their experiments spans virtually the entire range observed in sedimentary rocks, Fe(II)–Fe(III) aqueous speciation may play a major role in determining iron isotope variations in nature where Fe(II) and Fe(III) can become physically separated. They discounted earlier conclusions by us and others [2] ; [3] that significant equilibrium fractionation between specific coexisting Fe(II)- or Fe(III)-aqueous complexes (e.g., between aqueous Fe(II)(OH) x(aq) and Fe(II) (aq) ion) is capable of producing iron isotope contrasts that can be preserved in nature. This is an important contribution not only because the authors recognize the importance of abiotic equilibrium iron isotope fractionation in nature in contrast to previous assertions [4] , but also because it will help to focus discussion on the development and evaluation of experimental approaches that can reveal abiotic fractionation mechanisms. However, in this Comment we propose that the experiments presented in this paper cannot be interpreted as straightforwardly as Johnson et al. contend. In particular, we show that in one of their critical experiments attainment of either isotope mass balance or equilibrium was not demonstrated, and thus the results of that experiment cannot be used to calculate an Fe(II)–Fe(III) equilibrium fractionation factor.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2014

Scale criticality in estimating ecosystem carbon dynamics

Scaling is central to ecology and Earth system sciences. However, the importance of scale (i.e. resolution and extent) for understanding carbon dynamics across scales is poorly understood and quantified. We simulated carbon dynamics under a wide range of combinations of resolution (nine spatial resolutions of 250 m, 500 m, 1 km, 2 km, 5 km, 10 km, 20 km, 50 km, and 100 km) and extent (57 geospatial extents ranging from 108 to 1 247 034 km 2 ) in the southeastern United States to explore the existence of scale dependence of the simulated regional carbon balance. Results clearly show the existence of a critical threshold resolution for estimating carbon sequestration within a given extent and an error limit. Furthermore, an invariant power law scaling relationship was found between the critical resolution and the spatial extent as the critical resolution is proportional to A n ( n is a constant, and A is the extent). Scale criticality and the power law relationship might be driven by the power law probability distributions of land surface and ecological quantities including disturbances at landscape to regional scales. The current overwhelming practices without considering scale criticality might have largely contributed to difficulties in balancing carbon budgets at regional and global scales.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Microbial community assembly and metabolic function during mammalian corpse decomposition

Vertebrate corpse decomposition provides an important stage in nutrient cycling in most terrestrial habitats, yet microbially mediated processes are poorly understood. Here we combine deep microbial community characterization, community-level metabolic reconstruction, and soil biogeochemical assessment to understand the principles governing microbial community assembly during decomposition of mouse and human corpses on different soil substrates. We find a suite of bacterial and fungal groups that contribute to nitrogen cycling and a reproducible network of decomposers that emerge on predictable time scales. Our results show that this decomposer community is derived primarily from bulk soil, but key decomposers are ubiquitous in low abundance. Soil type was not a dominant factor driving community development, and the process of decomposition is sufficiently reproducible to offer new opportunities for forensic investigations.

Science↗

USGS1967

Climate and streamflow of Puerto Rico

The presently available data on streamflow, runoff rainfall, and temperature of Puerto Rico are evaluated, although the period of record is very short, with a view to contributing to the knowledge of hydrology of tropical islands. The average annual streamflow in Puerto Rico is 45 percent of the annual rainfall, or 15 percent more than in the eastern piedmont of the U.S. where it is 30 percent. Climate is assumed to be responsible for this difference as well as for the differences of the flows of Puerto Rican streams which vary from 15 to 85 percent of the annual rainfall. Variations in the climate of Puerto Rico are shown by Thornthwaite's climatic index on a map of the island, and the variations of the streamflow to rainfall ratios of Puerto Rican streams are shown to be related to Thornthwaite's climatic index.

Caribbean Journal of Science↗

USGS2016

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem↗

USGS2019

The risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Mexico

Coastal development and climate change are dramatically increasing the risks of flooding, erosion, and extreme weather events. Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems act as natural defenses against coastal hazards, but their degradation increases risk to people and property. Environmental degradation, however, has rarely been quantified as a driver of coastal risk. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, a region on the Mexican Caribbean coast with an annual tourism economy of 10 billion USD, coral reefs constitute a natural barrier against flooding from hurricanes. This study spatially quantifies the risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Quintana Roo for people, buildings, and hotel infrastructure. The risk reduction benefits are substantial. For example, the reefs prevented 43% additional damage during Hurricane Dean in (2007) and provide nowadays hazard risk reduction for 4.3% of the people, 1.9% of the built capital, and 2.4% of the hotel infrastructure, per year. The annual benefits are estimated in 4,600 people, 42 million USD damage prevention for buildings, and 20.8 million USD for hotel infrastructure. The study also compares the risk reduction of coral reefs with (i) the protection offered by dunes and (ii) the increase in coastal risk from sea-level rise (SLR). The risk reduction of dunes is more critical where there are no coral reefs offshore and for small return-periods storms. Sea-level rise, however, will make the more frequent storms more impactful and will drive significant increases in annual expected damages across the region. However, we demonstrate that, in coral reef environments, the contribution of reef degradation to coastal risk is larger than the expected increase in risk from SLR. However, the spatial distribution of the risk reduction benefits from reefs differs for people and infrastructure, and in particular for hotels, which receive the most protection from reefs. Furthermore, many sections present larger benefits than the typical costs of restoration. This valuation makes a compelling case for protecting and maintaining this natural infrastructure for its risk reduction service, but also allows the development of piloting innovative strategies, such as risk finance and insurance strategies, that can align environmental and risk management goals.

Mesoamerican Reef↗

USGS2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗