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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009–2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2016

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2024

Forecasting storm-induced coastal flooding for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios in the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecologic, and geospatial data and tools were combined to evaluate the increased risks of storm-induced coastal flooding in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. We followed a hybrid (dynamical and statistical) downscaling approach to map flooding due to waves and storm surge at 10-square meter resolution along all 1,870 kilometers of these islands’ coastlines for annual (1-year), 20-year, and 100-year return-interval storm events and +0.00 meter (m), +0.25 m, +0.50 m, +1.00 m, +1.50 m, +2.00 m, and +3.00 m sea-level rise scenarios. We quantified the coastal flood depths and extents using the latest climate forcing from Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The data generated using these methods provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when climate change and sea-level rise increase coastal storm-induced flooding to help identify areas where management and (or) restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, the coastal communities in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands.

Hawaii↗
USGS2010

An overview of historical channel adjustment and selected hydraulic values in the Lower Sabine and Lower Brazos River Basins, Texas and Louisiana

The Sabine and Brazos are alluvial rivers; alluvial rivers are dynamic systems that adjust their geometry in response to changes in streamflow (discharge) and sediment load. In fluvial geomorphology, the term 'channel adjustment' refers to river channel changes in three geometric dimensions: (1) channel slope (profile); (2) the outline or shape, such as meandering or braided, projected on a horizontal plane (planform); and (3) cross-sectional form (shape). The primary objective of the study was to investigate how the channel morphology of these rivers has changed in response to reservoirs and other anthropogenic disturbances that have altered streamflow and sediment load. The results of this study are expected to aid ecological assessments in the lower Sabine River and lower Brazos River Basins for the Texas Instream Flow Program. Starting in the 1920s, several dams have been constructed on the Sabine and Brazos Rivers and their tributaries, and numerous bridges have been built and sometimes replaced multiple times, which have changed the natural flow regime and reduced or altered sediment loads downstream. Changes in channel geometry over time can reduce channel conveyance and thus streamflow, which can have adverse ecological effects. Channel attributes including cross-section form, channel slope, and planform change were evaluated to learn how each river's morphology changed over many years in response to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Climate has large influence on the hydrologic regimes of the lower Sabine and lower Brazos River Basins. Equally important as climate in controlling the hydrologic regime of the two river systems are numerous reservoirs that regulate downstream flow releases. The hydrologic regimes of the two rivers and their tributaries reflect the combined influences of climate, flow regulation, and drainage area. Historical and contemporary cross-sectional channel geometries at 15 streamflow-gaging stations in the lower Sabine and lower Brazos River Basins were evaluated. An in-depth discussion of results from streamflow-gaging station 08028500 Sabine River near Bon Weir, Tex., is featured here as an example of the analyses that were done at each station.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

A science plan for a comprehensive assessment of water supply in the region underlain by fractured rock in Maryland

The fractured rock region of Maryland, which includes land areas north and west of the Interstate 95 corridor, is the source of water supply for approximately 4.4 million Marylanders, or approximately 76 percent of the State's population. Whereas hundreds of thousands of residents rely on wells (both domestic and community), millions rely on surface-water sources. In this region, land use, geology, topography, water withdrawals, impoundments, and other factors affect water-flow characteristics. The unconfined groundwater systems are closely interconnected with rivers and streams, and are affected by seasonal and climatic variations. During droughts, groundwater levels drop, thereby decreasing well yields, and in some cases, wells have gone dry. Low ground-water levels contribute to reduced streamflows, which in turn, can lead to reduced habitat for aquatic life. Increased demand, over-allocation, population growth, and climate change can affect the future sustainability of water supplies in the region of Maryland underlain by fractured rock. In response to recommendations of the 2008 Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources report, the Maryland Department of the Environment's Water Supply Program, the Maryland Geological Survey, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Monitoring and Non-Tidal Assessment (MANTA) Division, and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information, new data analysis, and new tools for the State to better manage water resources in the fractured rock region of Maryland. The science plan lays out five goals for the comprehensive assessment: (1) develop tools for the improved management and investigation of groundwater and surface-water resources; (2) characterize factors affecting reliable yields of individual groundwater and surface-water supplies; (3) investigate impacts on nearby water withdrawal users caused by groundwater and surface-water withdrawals; (4) assess the role of streamflow and water withdrawals on the ecological integrity of streams; and (5) improve understanding of the distribution of water-quality conditions in fractured rock aquifers. To accomplish these goals, accurate data collection, review, and analysis are needed, including the study of "Research Watersheds" that can provide detailed information about the potential effects that climate change and water withdrawals may have on groundwater, streamflow, and aquatic life. The assessment planning started in 2009 and is being conducted with close interagency coordination. A Fractured Rock Aquifer Information System is currently (2012) undergoing initial development. Other major tasks that will be performed include the development of work plans for each science goal, the estimation of daily streamflow at ungaged streams, and the design and implementation of Research Watersheds. Finally, scenarios will be modeled to evaluate current water allocation permitting methodologies, investigate effects on nearby water withdrawal users caused by groundwater and surface-water withdrawals, and assess the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. Desktop and Web-based tools will be developed in order to meet the diverse research needs of the assessment. These tools, including the Fractured Rock Aquifer Information System will be continuously improved during the assessment to store relevant groundwater and surface-water data in spatially referenced databases, estimate streamflows, locate higher-yielding wells, estimate the impacts of withdrawals on nearby users, and assess the cumulative impacts of withdrawals on the aquatic resource. Tools will be developed to serve the needs of many audiences, including water resource managers, water suppliers, planners, policymakers, and other scientific investigators.

Maryl↗
USGS2024

Saltwater intrusion and sea level rise threatens U.S. rural coastal landscapes and communities

The United States (U.S.) coastal plain is subject to rising sea levels, land subsidence, more severe coastal storms, and more intense droughts. These changes lead to inputs of marine salts into freshwater-dependent coastal systems, creating saltwater intrusion. The penetration of salinity into the coastal interior is exacerbated by groundwater extraction and the high density of agricultural canals and ditches throughout much of the rural U.S. landscape. Together saltwater intrusion and sea level rise (SWISLR) create substantial changes to the social-ecological systems situated along the coastal plain. Many scholars and practitioners are engaged in studying and managing SWISLR impacts on social, economic, and ecological systems. However, most efforts are localized and disconnected, despite a widespread desire to understand this common threat. In addition to variable rates of sea level rise across the U.S. outer coastal plain, differences in geomorphic setting, water resources infrastructure and management, and climate extremes are resulting in different patterns of saltwater intrusion. Understanding both the absolute magnitude of this rapid environmental change, and the causes and consequences for its spatial and temporal variation presents an opportunity to build new mechanistic models to link directional climate change to temporally and spatially dynamic socio-environmental impacts. The diverse trajectories of change offer rich opportunities to test and refine modern theories of ecosystem state change in systems with exceptionally strong socioecological feedbacks.

Anthropocene↗
USGS2014

Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth), genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, net calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14°C and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml· l−1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2020

An ecological and conservation perspective

Natural ecosystems are facing unprecedented threats which directly threaten human well-being through decreases in critical ecosystem services (IPBES 2019). The top five drivers causing the largest global impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services include: 1) changes in land and sea use; 2) direct exploitation of organisms; 3) climate change; 4) pollution, and 5) invasive alien species (IPBES 2019). Although One Health acknowledges the link between the health of humans, animals, and the environment, One Health discussions have historically focused on the prevention and control of infectious disease at the human-animal interface rather than these large-scale drivers of health. While One Health has succeeded in bringing awareness to the need for proactive disease control measures such as strengthened biosecurity and vaccine development (e.g., Machalaba et al., 2018; Middleton et al., 2014), disease is only one component of health. In this chapter, we explore the potential for One Health to shift its focus from disease prevention to health promotion to more fully integrate solutions that protect the health of humans, animals, and the ecosystems on which we all depend for our economies, livelihoods, food security, and health. This shift will facilitate a more seamless inclusion of ecological health and environmental conservation in the One Health paradigm and can serve as the basis for a comprehensive approach to complex problems at the root of global health. We also suggest a framework for creating and applying health metrics for wildlife and ecological systems that will be essential for measuring the success of actions aimed at maintaining or shifting systems to desired states.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Evaluating drivers of hydrology, water quality, and benthic macroinvertebrates in streams of Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007–18

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with Fairfax County, Virginia, to establish a long-term water-resources monitoring program to evaluate the hydrology, water quality, and ecology of Fairfax County streams and the watershed-scale effects of management practices. Fairfax County uses a variety of management practices, policies, and programs to protect and restore its water resources, but the effects of such strategies are not well understood. This report used streamflow, water-quality, and ecological monitoring data collected from 20 Fairfax County watersheds from 2007 through 2018 to assess the effects of management practices, landscape factors, and climatic conditions on observed nutrient, sediment, salinity, and benthic-macroinvertebrate community responses. Urbanization, climatic variability, and an increase in management practices occurred within Fairfax County during the study period. Impervious cover, housing units, wastewater infrastructure, and (or) stormwater infrastructure increased in most study watersheds. Climatic conditions varied among study years; countywide estimates of average-annual air temperature differed by about 3 degrees Celsius, and total precipitation ranged from about 34 to 63 inches per year. The effects of the management practices, implemented to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and (or) sediment loads, are considered in this study. These management practices primarily consist of stormwater retrofits and stream restorations; however, stream restorations account for most of the financial investment and expected load reductions. Management practices were implemented in half of the study watersheds, and most practices were installed and reductions credited late in the study period. Changes in hydrologic response during storm events were evaluated over the study period because many management practices that were implemented were designed to achieve nutrient and sediment reductions by slowing or intercepting runoff. The average number and length of storm events was mostly unchanged throughout the monitoring network. Four watersheds with 10 years of streamflow data showed a mixture of trends in stormflow peak, volume, and rate-of-change. Event-mean nutrient and sediment concentrations from these watersheds were evaluated during storm events and generally showed increases in total phosphorus (TP) and suspended sediment and reductions or no changes in total nitrogen (TN). Landscape inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus and the percentage of inputs delivered to streams were estimated for the study watersheds. Estimated phosphorus from fertilizer and nitrogen from atmospheric deposition represented large nutrient inputs in most watersheds; amounts of other nonpoint sources varied based on land use. Estimated nitrogen inputs declined throughout Fairfax County and in most study watersheds from 2008 through 2018; in comparison, phosphorus input changes were relatively small. Most nonpoint-nutrient inputs were retained on the landscape and did not reach streams, with slightly more nitrogen retention than phosphorus, on average. Retention rates were lower for years with more precipitation and streamflow. After adjusting for streamflow, TN and TP loads were generally higher for years with more nutrient inputs. Calculated as a function of flow-adjusted loads, TP retention declined at most stations from 2009 through 2018, in comparison, TN retention was relatively unchanged. Landscape and climatic conditions affected spatial differences and changes in Fairfax County stream conditions from 2009 through 2018. TN concentrations were higher and increases over time were larger in watersheds with elevated septic-system density. TP concentrations were higher in watersheds with more turfgrass; concentrations were lower, but had larger increases over time, in watersheds with deeper soils. Suspended-sediment concentrations were higher in watersheds with greater stream densities. Specific conductance was higher in watersheds with more developed land use and shallower soils. Benthic-macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity (IBI) scores were lower in watersheds with high road density and had larger increases over time in bigger, more developed watersheds. Annual variability in TN and TP concentrations and benthic-macroinvertebrate IBI scores was affected by precipitation; annual variability in suspended sediment concentrations and specific conductance was affected by air temperature. After accounting for influences from landscape and climatic conditions, expected management-practice effects were not consistently observed in monitored stream responses. These effects were assessed by comparing expected management-practice load reductions with the timing, direction, and magnitude of changes in storm-event hydrology, nutrient and sediment loads, median-annual water-quality conditions, and benthic-macroinvertebrate IBI scores. An important consideration for future investigations of management-practice effects is how to control for water-quality and ecological variability caused by geologic properties, the urban environment, precipitation, and (or) air temperature. The interpretation of management-practice effects in this report was likely influenced by a combination of factors, including (1) the amount, timing, and location of management-practice implementation; (2) unmeasured landscape and climatic factors; (3) uncertain management-practice expectations; (4) hydrologic variability; and (5) analytical assumptions. Through continued data-collection efforts, particularly after management practices have been completed, many of these factors may become less influential in the future.

Virginia↗
USGS2022

Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics

In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-based metrics. To address this knowledge gap, we developed and examined 27 climate and ecological drought metrics across dryland areas of the western U.S. Included in the 27 metrics is a suite of 19 largely new “ecological drought metrics” that are designed to quantify multiple aspects of environmental limitation in drylands, including overall growing conditions, seasonal fluctuations, seasonal moisture timing, exposure to extreme drought, and recruitment potential for perennial plants. To quantify these metrics, we simulated water balance pools and fluxes of daily soil moisture at multiple depths with historical weather from 1970-2010 using the SOILWAT2 ecosystem water balance model. We assessed the relationships among these metrics and their spatial and temporal patterns. We found that the inclusion of ecological drought metrics substantially increased the dimensionality of the climate metrics dataset; the number of independent variables needed to explain 90% of the variance in the dataset increased with the addition of ecological drought metrics. Spatial patterns in overall growing conditions represented well-known differences among ecoregions, for example high temperatures and low precipitation in the southwest and cool temperatures and greater precipitation in the northeast. Seasonal fluctuation in soil water availability (SWA) was greatest in the southwest (Mojave Desert) while fluctuation in climatic water deficit (CWD) was greatest in the northwest (northern Great Basin and Columbia Plateau). Seasonal timing of moisture also differed among metrics; the timing of wet degree days (WDD), SWA and CWD were only weakly related to seasonal timing of precipitation. Plant recruitment metrics varied strongly across western drylands. In the Great Plains, recruitment events occurred more frequently and lasted longer than in the intermountain regions, where recruitment events were comparatively rare and short. These ecological drought metrics provide new insight into patterns of soil moisture and temperature that shape the structure and function of dryland ecosystems. The metrics will be useful for assessing the potential impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and developing adaptive resource management strategies to sustain dryland ecosystem services in a changing world.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2023

Historical fire regimes and contemporary fire effects within sagebrush habitats of Gunnison Sage-grouse

The historical role of fire in sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) landscapes remains poorly understood, yet is important to inform management and conservation of obligate species such as the threatened Gunnison Sage-grouse (GUSG; Centrocercus minimus ). We reconstructed fire histories from tree-ring fire scars at sagebrush–forest ecotones (10 sites, 111 trees) to better understand the role of fire in sagebrush landscapes of the Upper Gunnison Basin (UGB), Colorado, and how fire may have changed following Euro-American settlement. We assessed likely influences of historical fire by surveying plant composition and structure at 100 sagebrush sites with and without recent (2001–2020) fires. Tree-ring fire scars revealed a history of repeated low-severity fire at sagebrush–forest ecotones until 1892, followed by over a century without fire. Between 1684 and 1892, the mean fire interval (MFI) among sites averaged 49.6 years (ranging from 18.2 to 119 years). Fire over this period occurred synchronously at two or more sites on average every 23.6 years, potentially indicative of spread between sites. Most (70%) of the historical fires burned in the early growing season, consistent with times of strong wind. Recent burns exhibited reductions in sagebrush cover (5% vs. 25% in unburned sites) and concomitant increases in herbaceous cover (55% vs. 40%). These differences declined over time but persisted for at least two decades. Burned sites were dominated by native perennial grasses, forbs, and resprouting shrub species. Historically, such openings may have served as seasonal GUSG habitat. Our results indicate that parts of the UGB sagebrush landscapes were characterized historically by frequent fire and dynamic vegetation mosaics that included open, grassy patches. These findings support the use of prescribed fire to restore and maintain this ecological process and vegetation heterogeneity. However, the contemporary context for fire has changed and now includes substantially reduced, Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed GUSG populations, increased risk of non-native plant invasion, and climate warming. These circumstances highlight new risks, information needs, and opportunities for key knowledge co-production via management–research partnerships.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

A historical look at changing water quality in the Delaware River basin

In 2019 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched a pilot regional Integrated Water Availability Assessment (IWAA) in the Delaware River Basin (fig. 1). IWAA is intended to explore, test, and refine systems and processes for assessing water availability for human and ecological uses and understanding their underlying controls. Water quality plays an important role in supporting ecological health and determining the suitability of water for human consumption, recreation, agriculture, and industry. Understanding how water quality has changed over time in response to natural and human-induced changes in landscape and climate identifies potential challenges in safeguarding water for all uses. The USGS has evaluated water-quality trends across the Nation, and 22 of the evaluated sites are in the Delaware River Basin. These 22 sites are in the Appalachian Plateau, Valley and Ridge, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces. Data from these sites indicate decadal to multidecadal changes in water quality and provide an initial look at how nutrient concentrations, such as total phosphorous, total nitrogen, and nitrate, and salinity indicators, such as specific conductance, sulfate, and chloride, have varied over time in the basin. The time period of the evaluation ranged from 1972 to 2012.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2013

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Holocene vegetation dynamics of circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands

Vegetation shifts in circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands drive feedbacks with important consequences for peatland carbon budgets and the extent of permafrost thaw under changing climate. Recent shrub expansion across Arctic tundra environments has led to an increase in above-ground biomass, but the long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of shrub and tree growth in circum-Arctic peatlands remain unquantified. We investigate changes in peatland vegetation composition during the Holocene using previously-published plant macrofossil records from 76 sites across the circum-Arctic permafrost zone. In particular, we assess evidence for peatland shrubification at the continental scale. We identify increasing abundance of woody vegetation in circum-Arctic peatlands from ∼8000 years BP to present, coinciding with declining herbaceous vegetation and widespread Sphagnum expansion. Ecosystem shifts varied between regions and present-day permafrost zones, with late-Holocene shrubification most pronounced where permafrost coverage is presently discontinuous and sporadic. After ∼600 years BP, we find a proliferation of non-Sphagnum mosses in Fennoscandia and across the present-day continuous permafrost zone; and rapid expansion of Sphagnum in regions of discontinuous and isolated permafrost as expected following widespread fen-bog succession, which coincided with declining woody vegetation in eastern and western Canada. Since ∼200 years BP, both shrub expansion and decline were identified at different sites across the pan-Arctic, highlighting the complex ecological responses of circum-Arctic peatlands to post-industrial climate warming and permafrost degradation. Our results suggest that shrubification of circum-Arctic peatlands has primarily occurred alongside surface drying, resulting from Holocene climate shifts, autogenic peat accumulation, and permafrost aggradation. Future shrubification of circum-Arctic peatlands under 21st century climate change will likely be spatially heterogeneous, and be most prevalent where dry microforms persist.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2019

Rapid broad-scale ecosystem changes and their consequences for biodiversity

Biodiversity contributes to and depends on ecosystem structure and associated function. Ecosystem structure, such as the amount and type of tree cover, influences fundamental abiotic variables such as near-ground incoming solar radiation (e.g., Royer et al. 2011), which in turn affects species and associated biodiversity (e.g., Trotter et al. 2008). In many systems, foundational, dominant, or keystone species (or species groups) are important in determining biodiversity, often because of their role in determining ecosystem structure. At spatial scales ranging from ecosystems to regions and larger, structural characteristics of vegetation or other structurally dominant organisms such as corals can influence species diversity, whether focused on alpha diversity (mean species diversity at the habitat level), beta diversity (differentiation among habitats), or gamma diversity (total species diversity across a landscape; Whittaker 1960). Climate change is projected to alter ecosystems at broad scales. In many cases, this will be due to extreme climate events such as droughts, floods and hurricanes, the effects of which can be rapid (IPCC 2012). Consequently, rapid broad-scale changes in ecosystems are of increasing concern. Climate change can directly affect species physiology, phenology, and distribution, as highlighted throughout this book (e.g. Citations to chapters in this volume to be added). Changes in one species can also affect other species (Cahill et al. 2013), particularly when dominant or co-dominant species that collectively provide habitat for other species are impacted (e.g. tree canopy architecture in many forest ecosystems; coral species via their reefs). Several rapid ecological changes have occurred at spatial scales that are sufficiently broad enough to represent biome changes (Gonzalez et al. 2010, Settele et al. 2014; Fig. 1 A). Rapid broad-scale changes differ from other patterns of vegetation dynamics in that they result in a “crash” in one or more populations (Breshears et al. 2008) over large areas of the affected region. Rapid broad-scale changes triggered by climate can include mega-fires; drought-triggered tree die-off and associated pest and pathogen outbreaks (Breshears et al. 2005, Safranyik et al. 2007); and hurricanes and wind-throw events (IPCC 2012, 2014). These rapid broad-scale changes can rapidly alter other factors such as resultant microclimate, which in turn can affect numerous other species and associated biodiversity (Royer et al. 2011; Fig. 1B). Many examples of broad-scale changes are documented in the paleoecology literature (Settele et al. 2014), although the temporal resolution at which those events can be resolved is relatively coarse (often centuries or longer). Such broad-scale changes documented in the paleoecology literature provide examples of types of change are likely to be of increasing concern in the future (Settele et al. 2014). Contemporary events have highlighted that broad-scale changes can occur rapidly (years or less; Breshears et al. 2005, Gonzalez et al. 2010, Settele et al. 2014). These rapid broad-scale changes will have important consequences for biodiversity beyond the direct impacts of climate change through the cascading effects associated with ecosystem structural and functional changes. The objective of this chapter is to alert readers to recent and projected rapid ecosystem changes and their potential consequences for biodiversity at ecosystem, landscape and regional scales.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Evaluating mechanisms of plant‐mediated effects on herbivore persistence and occupancy across an ecoregion

Contemporary climate change is rapidly creating one of the greatest challenges for management and conservation during the 21st century. Mountain ecosystems, which have a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and contain numerous habitat specialists, have been identified as particularly vulnerable. We used data from multiple years across sites spanning a >40 million ha ecoregion to test hypotheses regarding how community‐level characteristics of vegetation may affect a mammalian generalist herbivore, the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ). We examined patterns of pika persistence across sites in the hydrographic Great Basin, and occupancy within a subset of these sites. We used mixed‐effects logistic regression models to compare evidence in support of competing explanations for each pattern within an information–theoretic framework (using Akaike's information criterion). Models reflected four hypothesized classes of mechanisms related to nutritional ecology, ecosystem function, indirect indication of climatic effects, and (synergistic) combinations of these three classes. At the site level, models reflecting synergistic effects received the most support. At the within‐site level, support appeared to be split equally among hypotheses containing predictors related to either nutritional ecology or indirect climate effects. Well‐supported predictors included cover of invasive plant species, cover of more‐xeric plant species, species evenness, and proportion of graminoid species. Our results both (1) identify important aspects of vegetation communities that may influence herbivore distribution in mountainous areas across a large, diverse geographic region, and (2) contribute to an improved understanding of how mountain ecosystems may be affected by ongoing climate change, more broadly.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: Polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7–3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Chukchi Sea↗
USGS2017

Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) nests comprised most of the sample ( n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation↗