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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25‐PRVI Puerto Rico-U.S. Virgin Island update

A key use‐case of geologic slip rates is within deformation models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Field‐derived geologic slip rates have formed the cornerstone of deformation models in such applications for decades. Recent advancements in seismic hazard analyses have expanded the use of faults for which geologic slip rates are not well constrained using categorical slip rate estimates. Because of these advancements, application of a geologic deformation model for use in 2025 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model Puerto Rico‐U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM25‐PRVI) proved challenging due to: (1) a lack of field‐based geologic slip rates, and (2) a lack of epistemic uncertainty distributions within a broad range of estimated slip rates. Preliminary versions of the NSHM25‐PRVI model sampled these slip rate bins in a coincident manner along preferred and extreme value branches, which yielded untenable correlations in mean hazard results. To minimize the influence of correlated uncertainties amid these challenges, we develop a synthetic epistemic uncertainty distribution for deformation rate on each crustal fault. Each fault has a weighting schema across four possible distribution shapes: uniform, normal, triangular favoring local minima, and triangular favoring local maxima. The synthetic distributions are then sampled several times for each logic tree branch. The results provide a more realistic distribution of rates across the study region as compared with using correlated extrema sampling. This exploration of our method in a small region like PRVI can pave the way for larger‐scale, more complicated applications (e.g., western United States).

Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands↗
USGS2026

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Preface to the focus section on intraplate earthquakes

More than a half century after plate tectonics provided an overarching framework to explain earthquakes along active plate boundaries, numerous theories have been proposed to explain where, why, and how often earthquakes occur well away from active plate boundaries, but a paradigm remains elusive. Even the classification of earthquakes away from active plate boundaries as "intraplate" raises issues, with potentially important distinctions between Stable Continental Regions and more actively deforming regions including passive margins and failed rifts. Some of the largest known intraplate earthquakes themselves remain enigmatic, having occurred before the modern instrumental era. Hazard assessments are often data-limited: low fault-slip rates relative to landscape modification rates result in poor discoverability of fault sources, challenging the characterization of source zones and earthquake recurrence; the completeness and homogenization of instrumental earthquake catalogs using uncertain magnitude conversions can lead to uncertainties in earthquake recurrence; and, limited strong-motion observations for large-magnitude events at near-source distances leads to uncertainties in the selection and development of ground-motion models for seismic hazard studies. Data from recent intraplate earthquakes around the world—from the moment magnitude M 7.7 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake 25 years ago to the 2024 M 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey earthquake—have yielded both new insights and new questions. The papers in this special focus discuss many of the long-standing challenges involved with intraplate earthquake investigations and provide a snapshot of the state of the art with current research to advance our understanding.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2010

On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory and some of the challenges for proper specification of theoretical ideas in structural equation models (SE models). In our presentation, we describe some of the requirements for classical latent variable models in which observed variables (indicators) are interpreted as the effects of underlying causes. We also describe alternative model specifications in which indicators are interpreted as having causal influences on the theoretical concepts. We suggest that this latter nonclassical specification (which involves another variable type—the composite) will often be appropriate for ecological studies because of the multifaceted nature of our theoretical concepts. In this paper, we employ the use of meta‐models to aid the translation of theory into SE models and also to facilitate our ability to relate results back to our theories. We demonstrate our approach by showing how a synthetic theory of grassland biodiversity can be evaluated using SEM and data from a coastal grassland. In this example, the theory focuses on the responses of species richness to abiotic stress and disturbance, both directly and through intervening effects on community biomass. Models examined include both those based on classical forms (where each concept is represented using a single latent variable) and also ones in which the concepts are recognized to be multifaceted and modeled as such. To address the challenge of matching SE models with the conceptual level of our theory, two approaches are illustrated, compositing and aggregation. Both approaches are shown to have merits, with the former being preferable for cases where the multiple facets of a concept have widely differing effects in the system and the latter being preferable where facets act together consistently when influencing other parts of the system. Because ecological theory characteristically deals with concepts that are multifaceted, we expect the methods presented in this paper will be useful for ecologists wishing to use SEM.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2014

The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a non-native predators on stream-rearing salmon

Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Oregon↗
USGS2013

Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2014

Conserving migratory mule deer through the umbrella of sage-grouse

Conserving migratory ungulates in increasingly human-dominated landscapes presents a difficult challenge to land managers and conservation practitioners. Nevertheless, ungulates may receive ancillary benefits from conservation actions designed to protect species of greater conservation priority where their ranges are sympatric. Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocerus urophasianus ), for example, have been proposed as an umbrella species for other sagebrush ( Artemesia spp.)-dependent fauna. We examined a landscape where conservation efforts for sage-grouse overlap spatially with mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) to determine whether sage-grouse conservation measures also might protect important mule deer migration routes and seasonal ranges. We conducted a spatial analysis to determine what proportion of migration routes, stopover areas, and winter ranges used by mule deer were located in areas managed for sage-grouse conservation. Conservation measures overlapped with 66–70% of migration corridors, 74–75% of stopovers, and 52–91% of wintering areas for two mule deer populations in the upper Green River Basin of Wyoming. Of those proportions, conservation actions targeted towards sage-grouse accounted for approximately half of the overlap in corridors and stopover areas, and nearly all overlap on winter ranges, indicating that sage-grouse conservation efforts represent an important step in conserving migratory mule deer. Conservation of migratory species presents unique challenges because although overlap with conserved lands may be high, connectivity of the entire route must be maintained as barriers to movement anywhere within the migration corridor could render it unviable. Where mule deer habitats overlap with sage-grouse core areas, our results indicate that increased protection is afforded to winter ranges and migration routes within the umbrella of sage-grouse conservation, but this protection is contingent on concentrated developments within core areas not intersecting with high-priority stopovers or corridors, and that the policy in turn does not encourage development on deer ranges outside of core areas. With the goal of protecting entire migration routes, our analysis highlights areas of potential conservation focus for mule deer, which are characterized by high exposure to residential development and use by a large proportion of migrating deer.

Ecosphere↗
USGS1981

Cenozoic coccoliths from the Deep Sea Drilling Project

Coccoliths, as the dominant constituent of many Deep Sea Drilling Project cores, have provided the means of rapid and detailed biostratigraphic zonation to help guide ocean-sediment coring operations aboard D.V. Glomar Challenger. The Cenozoic has been divided into 50 to 60 zones and subzones which are most effective for middle- and low- latitude sites. Because key stratigraphic coccoliths have proved more resistant to diagenetic change than planktic foraminifers, they contributed to dating of sedimentary beds within and just above basalt, directly demonstrating the correctness of the sea-floor spreading hypothesis. An unexpected discovery of Braarudosphaera beds in the South Atlantic produced valuable speculation on the response of coccolithophorids to paleoceanographic changes. Samples from the diversity of oceanic terrains explored by early cruises of Glomar Challenger helped in the recognition of the effects of differential preservation —etching and overgrowth from species to species —and in the determination of biogeographic ranges which would affect the taxonomic, paleoecologic and biostratigraphic assignments of coccoliths. DSDP sites have provided the matrix needed to outline depth sequences based on dissolution rank, and paleotemperature sequences based on abundance along latitudinal traverses. New Hydraulic Piston Corer capabilities will make possible application of magnetic reversal stratigraphy to undisturbed cores where coccolith evolutionary transitions and datum-interval stratigraphy can be established.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Geomagnetic referencing in the arctic environment

Geomagnetic referencing is becoming an increasingly attractive alternative to north-seeking gyroscopic surveys to achieve the precise wellbore positioning essential for success in today's complex drilling programs. However, the greater magnitude of variations in the geomagnetic environment at higher latitudes makes the application of geomagnetic referencing in those areas more challenging. Precise, real-time data on those variations from relatively nearby magnetic observatories can be crucial to achieving the required accuracy, but constructing and operating an observatory in these often harsh environments poses a number of significant challenges. Operational since March 2010, the Deadhorse Magnetic Observatory (DED), located in Deadhorse, Alaska, was created through collaboration between the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and a leading oilfield services supply company. DED was designed to produce real-time geomagnetic data at the required level of accuracy, and to do so reliably under the extreme temperatures and harsh weather conditions often experienced in the area. The observatory will serve a number of key scientific communities as well as the oilfield drilling industry, and has already played a vital role in the success of several commercial ventures in the area, providing essential, accurate data while offering significant cost and time savings, compared with traditional surveying techniques.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost—A review

Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS1990

Indices used to assess status of sea otter populations: A reply

The California sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) population, after increasing for more than half a century, stabilized and probably declined from the mid-1970's to the mid-1980's. Estes et al. (1986) suggested that the stabilization and decline were not due to food limitation. Garshelis et al. (1990) challenged this suggestion, although in doing so they misrepresented arguments made by Estes et al. (1986), provided no evidence for alternative hypotheses, and offered no constructive recommendations for a better means of population assessment. While acknowledging some of the points made by Garshelis et al. (1990), I believe the collective evidence presented by Estes et al. (1986) provided a reasonable basis for rejecting the food-limitation hypothesis, and point out that recent increases in the California sea otter population following a legislated reduction in net entanglement mortality is strong evidence against the food-limitation hypothesis.

California↗
USGS2022

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire: A framework of approaches, metrics, criteria, trajectories, and timescales

Deviations in hydrologic processes due to wildfire can alter streamflows across the hydrograph, spanning peak flows to low flows. Fire-enhanced changes in hydrologic processes, including infiltration, interception, and evapotranspiration, and the resulting streamflow responses can affect water supplies, through effects on the quantity, quality, and timing of water availability. Post-fire shifts in hydrologic processes can also alter the timing and magnitude of floods and debris flows. The duration of hydrologic deviations from a pre-fire condition or function, sometimes termed hydrologic recovery, is a critical concern for land, water, and emergency managers. We reviewed and summarized terminology and approaches for defining and assessing hydrologic recovery after wildfire, focusing on statistical and functional definitions. We critically examined advantages and drawbacks of current recovery assessment methods, outline challenges to determining recovery, and call attention to selected opportunities for advancement of post-fire hydrologic recovery assessment. Selected challenges included hydroclimatic variability, post-fire land management, and spatial and temporal variability. The most promising opportunities for advancing assessment of hydrologic recovery include: (1) combining statistical and functional recovery approaches, (2) using a greater diversity of post-fire observations complemented with hydrologic modeling, and (3) defining optimal assemblages of recovery metrics and criteria for common hydrologic concerns and regions.

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics↗
USGS2020

Integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling: Development of a national capability

Water is one of our most important natural resources and is essential to our national economy and security. Multiple federal government agencies have mission elements that address national needs related to water. Each water-related agency champions a unique science and/or operational mission focused on advancing a portion of the nation’s ability to meet our water-related challenges, often in close collaboration with scientists from the academic community. These diverse mission needs have engendered a rich and extensive base of water-related data and modeling capabilities. While useful for their intended purposes, these capabilities are not well integrated to address complex regional problems and overarching national problems. These major investments by several federal agencies and their scientific partners, however, lay the foundation for an integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling and data infrastructure that will enhance knowledge, understanding, prediction, and management of the nation’s diverse water challenges.

Report↗
USGS2023

Comprehensive inventory of habitat assessment and evaluation datasets to support Deepwater Horizon mesophotic and deep benthic communities

This report is part of the NOAA Mesophotic and Deep Benthic Communities (MDBC) Series of publications that share the results of work conducted by the Deepwater Horizon MDBC restoration projects. The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill was an unprecedented event. Approximately 3.2 million barrels of oil were released into the deep ocean over nearly three months. The plume of oil moved throughout the water column, formed surface slicks that cumulatively covered an area the size of Virginia, and washed oil onto at least 1,300 miles of shoreline habitats. More than 770 square miles (2,000 square kilometers) of deep benthic habitat surrounding the Deepwater Horizon wellhead and 4-square miles of the Pinnacles mesophotic reef complex, located at the edge of the continental shelf, were injured by the oil spill. Under the Oil Pollution Act, state and federal natural resource trustees conducted a Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA). The Trustees assessed damages, quantifying the unprecedented injuries to natural resources and lost services. They also developed a programmatic restoration plan to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost services. In April 2016, a settlement was finalized that included up to $8.8 billion in funding for the Deepwater Horizon Trustees to restore the natural resource injuries caused by the oil spill as described in their programmatic restoration plan, Final Programmatic Damage Assessment and Restoration Plan and Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement. The Deepwater Horizon Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group is responsible for restoring natural resources and their services within the Open Ocean Restoration Area that were injured by the oil spill. The Open Ocean Trustees include NOAA, Department of the Interior, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and U.S. Department of Agriculture. In 2019, the Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group committed more than $126 million to implement four restoration projects to address the injury to MDBC. The MDBC projects are: mapping, Ground-truthing, and Predictive Habitat Modeling; Habitat Assessment and Evaluation; Coral Propagation Technique Development; and Active Management and Protection. NOAA and the Department of the Interior are implementing the projects, in cooperation with a range of partners, over eight years. Together, the projects take a phased approach to meet the challenges involved in restoring deep-sea habitats. Challenges to restoration include a limited scientific understanding of these communities, limited experience with restoration at the depths at which these communities occur, and remote locations that limit accessibility. More information about Deepwater Horizon restoration and the MDBC restoration projects is available at: www.gulfspillrestoration.noaa.gov.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2024

Dust management at an active construction area impacts monarch distribution

The North American population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus) is experiencing dramatic declines, necessitating investigations into challenges facing this species that can be resolved through management actions. For instance, dust made airborne by heavy equipment driving along a dirt road can settle on roadside vegetation, resulting in reduced use by monarchs. Dust accumulation on areas where floral nectaries such as leaves, stems, and flowers may be present could reduce the ability of pollinators, such as monarchs, to access nectar from flowering plants needed during migration. One such challenge was observed on Poplar Island, an island restoration project located in the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, USA. To determine if road watering would result in notable reductions of dust accumulation on adjacent roadside vegetation, and if such a reduction in dust would affect monarch use of treated habitat, water was applied via spraying to sections of the roadway during the 2022 fall migration period. Treatment areas where water was applied to the road were found to have significant reductions in dust accumulation ( P ≤0.001) as well as significantly higher use by monarchs ( P = 0.002), relative to non-watered control areas. While these results indicate potential utility of road watering to support monarchs at sites with high dust accumulation, numerous additional elements such as water usage and logistical constraints must also be considered. While limited in scope, these data do provide a notable proof-of-concept for managing this issue at other sites and can be built upon with further research.

Maryland↗
USGS2025

3D Converted wave reverse time migration imaging

We describe a newly developed method for recovering high-resolution images of seismic discontinuities, such as subducting slabs, in 3D. Our method makes use of converted S → P or P → S waves observed by dense arrays of seismometers to infer the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities at depth in a target region. Observed direct and converted waves are backpropagated to their times of origin. The time-reversed wavefield is then separated into its constituent P and S components via the Helmholtz decomposition, and those separated wavefields are used to compute imaging functions that characterize the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities. Imaging functions may be designed to use either S → P or P → S waves, so that users can target those arrivals expected to be most dominant in a given dataset. We have previously demonstrated the efficacy of our method in two dimensions, and we now present a 3D implementation of our technique which addresses the significant computational challenges posed by the size of volumetric wavefield data in three dimensions. Through a series of synthetic examples, we demonstrate that our method is capable of recovering the fine scale structure of a subducting slab given realistic station coverage and earthquake sources. We investigate optimal seismic station geometries for our technique and explore image interpretability in regions with poor data coverage. We find that linear station geometries yield more optimal, interpretable imaging functions than collections of small arrays can. We also show that our method can successfully recover bothS → P or P → S images when realistic shear earthquake sources are used, and we explore the additional computational challenges presented by the high frequency content of S waves. Our results demonstrate the potential for our technique to recover high-resolution information about subducting slabs in real-world regions, given that relatively sparse seismic arrays with only approximately 100 stations are capable of recovering interpretable imaging functions from just a few realistic earthquake sources for multiple discontinuities at significant depth in an area of approximately 400~sq~km.

Seismica↗
USGS2013

Detection of tamarisk defoliation by the northern tamarisk beetle based on multitemporal Landsat 5 thematic mapper imagery.

The spread of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp., also known as saltcedar) is a significant ecological disturbance in western North America and has long been targeted for control, leading to the importation of the northern tamarisk beetle ( Diorhabda carinulata ) as a biological control agent. Following its initial release along the Colorado River near Moab, Utah in 2004, the beetle has successfully established and defoliated tamarisk across much of the upper Colorado River Basin. However, the spatial distribution and seasonal timing of defoliation are complex and difficult to quantify over large areas. To address this challenge, we tested and compared two remote sensing approaches to mapping tamarisk defoliation: Disturbance Index (DI) and a decision tree method called Random Forest (RF). Based on multitemporal Landsat 5 TM imagery for 2006-2010, changes in DI and defoliation probability from RF were calculated to detect tamarisk defoliation along the banks of Green, Colorado, Dolores and San Juan rivers within the Colorado Plateau area. Defoliation mapping accuracy was assessed based on field surveys partitioned into 10 km sections of river and on regions of interest created for continuous riparian vegetation. The DI method detected 3711 ha of defoliated area in 2007, 7350 ha in 2008, 10,457 ha in 2009 and 5898 ha in 2010. The RF method detected much smaller areas of defoliation but proved to have higher accuracy, as demonstrated by accuracy assessment and sensitivity analysis, with 784 ha in 2007, 960 ha in 2008, 934 ha in 2009, and 1008 ha in 2010. Results indicate that remote sensing approaches are likely to be useful for studying spatiotemporal patterns of tamarisk defoliation as the tamarisk leaf beetle spreads throughout the western United States.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗