Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Wildfire”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan

Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation, and destruction by more-frequent and severe wildfire. Most current measures to manage the impacts of hazards on CRs use vulnerability assessments, but because these require that all CRs be treated as having an equal chance of being affected by climate-change hazards (i.e., equal exposure) across large landscapes, the cost and resources required for such analyses are overwhelming to land management agencies. Projections of changes in many hazards, however, show that the probability of hazard occurrence will be unevenly distributed on the landscape. Incorporating this information into a risk assessment thus allows CR managers to prioritize their efforts on assessing impacts to CRs in those areas where the probability of the hazard is greatest, thus increasing efficiency. We provide several heuristic examples of implementing the first part of a CR risk assessment by using 21st-century projections of several hazards most likely to adversely affect CRs on nine National Forests (NFs) managed by the U.S. Forest Service in northern Idaho and Montana. Overlaying the projected distribution of hazards on these NFs with the distribution of CRs identifies CR exposure that, with information on their vulnerability, is required to determine risk. Additional policy and field studies will be needed to determine how to prioritize those CRs that are most at risk according to their significance as well as identify how impacts can be reduced and managed through adaptation planning and implementation. Adaptation will follow the iterative risk management process particularly by improving projection resolution. Finer scale, process-based modeling informed by the highest priority CRs would also provide a means to assess various adaptation options that might change the estimated risk and increase the odds of CRs being as little affected as possible.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2025

Climatological effects on survival, recruitment, and possible extirpation of a Sierra Nevada anuran

The drivers of population dynamics are a primary interest of ecologists, and predicting the consequences of climate variability on wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of how weather causes variation in the vital rates of populations. Given recent and projected extremes in annual precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, including two severe droughts, we sought to examine the role of snowpack and summer water availability on the population dynamics and potential extirpation of a meadow population of the U.S. Endangered Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog ( Rana sierrae ) using a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset. We found that snowpack and summer water availability affected both survival and recruitment probabilities. Although these variables only explained approximately 17 % of the annual variation in adult survival, they explained 81 % of the variation in recruitment into the adult population. Following two severe, extended droughts and a nearby wildfire, the population consisted of 20 or fewer individuals with >95 % certainty, and 10 or fewer individuals with 64 % certainty. If realized, increased precipitation volatility and extended droughts likely present an additional threat to some meadow populations of this endangered frog.

California↗
USGS2011

Estimating aboveground forest biomass carbon and fire consumption in the U.S. Utah High Plateaus using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program, Landsat, and LANDFIRE

The concentrations of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and greatly affecting global climate and socio-economic systems. Actively growing forests are generally considered to be a major carbon sink, but forest wildfires lead to large releases of biomass carbon into the atmosphere. Aboveground forest biomass carbon (AFBC), an important ecological indicator, and fire-induced carbon emissions at regional scales are highly relevant to forest sustainable management and climate change. It is challenging to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of AFBC across large areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of forest cover types and canopy structure. In this study, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, Landsat, and Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (LANDFIRE) data were integrated in a regression tree model for estimating AFBC at a 30-m resolution in the Utah High Plateaus. AFBC were calculated from 225 FIA field plots and used as the dependent variable in the model. Of these plots, 10% were held out for model evaluation with stratified random sampling, and the other 90% were used as training data to develop the regression tree model. Independent variable layers included Landsat imagery and the derived spectral indicators, digital elevation model (DEM) data and derivatives, biophysical gradient data, existing vegetation cover type and vegetation structure. The cross-validation correlation coefficient ( r value) was 0.81 for the training model. Independent validation using withheld plot data was similar with r value of 0.82. This validated regression tree model was applied to map AFBC in the Utah High Plateaus and then combined with burn severity information to estimate loss of AFBC in the Longston fire of Zion National Park in 2001. The final dataset represented 24 forest cover types for a 4 million ha forested area. We estimated a total of 353 Tg AFBC with an average of 87 MgC/ha in the Utah High Plateaus. We also estimated that 8054 Mg AFBC were released from 2.24 km 2 burned forest area in the Longston fire. These results demonstrate that an AFBC spatial map and estimated biomass carbon consumption can readily be generated using existing database. The methodology provides a consistent, practical, and inexpensive way for estimating AFBC at 30-m resolution over large areas throughout the United States.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2013

Phenology-based, remote sensing of post-burn disturbance windows in rangelands

Wildland fire activity has increased in many parts of the world in recent decades. Ecological disturbance by fire can accelerate ecosystem degradation processes such as erosion due to combustion of vegetation that otherwise provides protective cover to the soil surface. This study employed a novel ecological indicator based on remote sensing of vegetation greenness dynamics (phenology) to estimate variability in the window of time between fire and the reemergence of green vegetation. The indicator was applied as a proxy for short-term, post-fire disturbance windows in rangelands; where a disturbance window is defined as the time required for an ecological or geomorphic process that is altered to return to pre-disturbance levels. We examined variability in the indicator determined for time series of MODIS and AVHRR NDVI remote sensing data for a database of ∼100 historical wildland fires, with associated post-fire reseeding treatments, that burned 1990–2003 in cold desert shrub steppe of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau of the western USA. The indicator-based estimates of disturbance window length were examined relative to the day of the year that fires burned and seeding treatments to consider effects of contemporary variability in fire regime and management activities in this environment. A key finding was that contemporary changes of increased length of the annual fire season could have indirect effects on ecosystem degradation, as early season fires appeared to result in longer time that soils remained relatively bare of the protective cover of vegetation after fires. Also important was that reemergence of vegetation did not occur more quickly after fire in sites treated with post-fire seeding, which is a strategy commonly employed to accelerate post-fire vegetation recovery and stabilize soil. Future work with the indicator could examine other ecological factors that are dynamic in space and time following disturbance – such as nutrient cycling, carbon storage, microbial community composition, or soil hydrology – as a function of disturbance windows, possibly using simulation modeling and historical wildfire information.

California;Idaho;Nevada;Oregon;Utah;Washington↗
USGS2023

Satellite-derived plant cover maps vary in performance depending on version and product

Understanding the accuracy and appropriate application scale of satellite-derived maps of vegetation cover is essential for effective management of the vast, remote rangelands of the world. However, the underlying models are updated frequently and may combine with rapidly changing vegetation conditions to cause variations in accuracy and precision over time. We sought to assess how model performance changed between different versions of satellite-derived cover products (Rangeland Analysis Platform, RAP, and Rangeland Condition Monitoring and Assessment Protocol, RCMAP) and how the performance of LandCart compared to RAP and RCMAP. Additionally, we asked how variability in agreement between LandCart and field-based models varied with scale. We utilized an intensive dataset of grid-point intercept functional group cover data collected between 2016 and 2020 across the ∼113 kHA 2015 Soda Wildfire to 1) evaluate r 2 agreement between versions of each satellite-derived product and plot-level field data and 2) assess relative standard error of agreement in cover between LandCart and continuous field-based Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) regression models. Agreement between satellite- compared to field-plot values of cover (r 2 ) increased for RCMAP Version 5.0 compared to Version 2.0, but there were negligible changes between versions of RAP. Despite this, r 2 values of RCMAP and LandCart were nearly always less than RAP. Variability in agreement between EBK regression model cover and LandCart-derived cover decreased with the scale of consideration. Variability in agreement between satellite-derived cover products and field-based metrics is lowest at larger scale (mega-fire or regional) and varies from year to year and across versions, which could complicate detection of temporal changes in plant cover.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2008

Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire disturbance. Simulations generated from this model are expected to be the subject of subsequent studies on landscape dynamics with specific regard to prediction of wildlife distributions associated with fire management and climate change.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2019

A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes

Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processes and their Landscape Effects: SCRPPLE) that emphasizes the social dimensions of fire and enables simulation of fuel-treatment effects, fire suppression, and prescribed fires. Fire behavior was parameterized with daily fire weather, ignition, and fire-boundary data. SCRPPLE was initially parameterized and developed for the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) in California and Nevada, USA although its behavior is general and could be applied worldwide. We demonstrate the behavior and utility of our model via four simple scenarios that emphasize the social dimensions of fire regimes: a) Recent Historical: simulated recent historical patterns of lightning and accidental fires and current patterns of fire suppression, b) Natural-Fire-Regime: simulated wildfire without suppression, accidental fires, or prescribed fires, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, c) Enhanced Suppression: simulated a doubling of the effectiveness of suppression, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, and d) Reduced Accidental Ignitions: within which the number of accidental fires was reduced by half, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical. Results indicate that SCRPPLE can recreate past fire regimes, including size, intensity, and locations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the ‘Enhanced Suppression’ and ‘Reduced Accidental Ignitions’ scenarios had similar capacity to reduce fire and related tree mortality over time, suggesting that within the broad outlines of the scenarios, reducing accidental fires can be as effective as substantially increasing resources for suppression.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2023

An aridity threshold model of fire sizes and annual area burned in extensively forested ecoregions of the western USA

Wildfire occurrence varies among regions and through time due to the long-term impacts of climate on fuel structure and short-term impacts on fuel flammability. Identifying the climatic conditions that trigger extensive fire years at regional scales can enable development of area burned models that are both spatially and temporally robust, which is crucial for understanding the impacts of past and future climate change. We identified region-specific thresholds in fire-season aridity that distinguish years with limited, moderate, and extensive area burned for 11 extensively forested ecoregions in the western United States. We developed a new area burned model using these relationships and demonstrate its application in the Southern Rocky Mountains using climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) that bracket the range of projected changes in aridity. We used the aridity thresholds to classify each simulation year as having limited, moderate, or extensive area burned and defined fire-size distributions from historical fire records for these categories. We simulated individual fires from a regression relating fire season aridity to the annual number of fires and drew fire sizes from the corresponding fire-size distributions. We project dramatic increases in area burned after 2020 under most GCMs and after 2060 with all GCMs as the frequency of extensive fire years increases. Our adaptable model can readily incorporate new observations (e.g., extreme fire years) to directly address the non-stationarity of fire-climate relationships as climatic conditions diverge from past observations. Our aridity threshold fire model provides a simple yet spatially robust approach to project regional changes in area burned with broad applicability to ecosystem and vegetation simulation models.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2015

Sediment yields from small, steep coastal watersheds of California

Global inventories of sediment discharge to the ocean highlight the importance of small, steep watersheds (i.e., those having drainage areas less than 100,000 km2 and over 1000 m of relief) that collectively provide a dominant flux of sediment. The smallest of these coastal watersheds (e.g., those that have drainage areas less than 1000 km2) can represent a large portion of the drainage areas of active margin coasts, such as California’s coast, but remain almost universally unmonitored. Here we report on the suspended-sediment discharge of several small coastal watersheds (10-56 km2) of the Santa Ynez Mountains, California, that were found to have ephemeral discharge and suspended-sediment concentrations ranging between 1 and over 200,000 mgL-1. Sediment concentrations were weakly correlated with discharge (r2 = 0.10–0.25), and all types of hysteresis patterns were observed during high flows (clockwise, counterclockwise, no hysteresis, and complex). Sediment discharge varied strongly with time and was measurably elevated in one watershed following a wildfire. Although sediment yields varied by over 100-fold across the watersheds (e.g., 15 – 2100 tkm-2 yr -1during the relatively wet 2005 water year), the majority of sediment discharge (65-80%) occurred during only 1% of the time for all watersheds. Furthermore, sampling of dozens of high flow events provides evidence that sediment yields were generally related to peak discharge yields, although these relationships were not consistent across the watersheds. These results suggest that small watersheds of active margins can provide large fluxes of sediment to the coast, but that the rates and timing of this sediment discharge is more irregular in time – and thus more difficult to characterize – than the better monitored and studied watersheds that are 1000-100,000 km2.

California↗
USGS2014

Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California

Debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the Transverse Ranges of southern California pose severe hazards to nearby communities and infrastructure. Frequent wildfires denude hillslopes and increase the likelihood of these hazardous events. Debris-retention basins protect communities and infrastructure from the impacts of debris flows and sediment-laden floods and also provide critical data for volumes of sediment deposited at watershed outlets. In this study, we supplement existing data for the volumes of sediment deposited at watershed outlets with newly acquired data to develop new empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment produced by watersheds located in the Transverse Ranges of southern California. The sediment volume data represent a broad sample of conditions found in Ventura, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties, California. The measured volumes of sediment, watershed morphology, distributions of burn severity within each watershed, the time since the most recent fire, triggering storm rainfall conditions, and engineering soil properties were analyzed using multiple linear regressions to develop two models. A “long-term model” was developed for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by both debris flows and floods at various times since the most recent fire from a database of volumes of sediment deposited by a combination of debris flows and sediment-laden floods with no time limit since the most recent fire (n = 344). A subset of this database was used to develop an “emergency assessment model” for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows within two years of a fire (n = 92). Prior to developing the models, 32 volumes of sediment, and related parameters for watershed morphology, burn severity and rainfall conditions were retained to independently validate the long-term model. Ten of these volumes of sediment were deposited by debris flows within two years of a fire and were used to validate the emergency assessment model. The models were validated by comparing predicted and measured volumes of sediment. These validations were also performed for previously developed models and identify that the models developed here best predict volumes of sediment for burned watersheds in comparison to previously developed models.

California↗
USGS2007

Effects of Phos-Chek® G75-F and Silv-Ex® on red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) embryos

Effects of field application levels of wildfire control chemicals, Phos-Chek ® G75-F (PC) and Silv-Ex ® (SE), were examined on red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) embryos. Embryos were more sensitive to PC and SE when eggs were immersed for 10 s at an early developmental stage (days 3–5 of incubation) than at a later stage (days 6–9 of incubation). The LC 50 (concentration causing 50% mortality) for early stage embryos exposed to PC was 213.3 g/L (slope = 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 129.1–326.1). The no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was below 135 g PC/L, which caused a significant increase in embryonic mortality and represents the lowest field coverage level of 1 gal/100 feet 2 . The LC 50 for early stage embryos exposed to SE was 19.8 g/L (slope = 1.5; 95% CI = 11.7–52.2). Significant mortality was observed at 10 g SE/L and marginal at 7.5 g SE/L with an apparent NOEC around 5 g SE/L. Neither chemical resulted in apparent developmental malformations.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2020

PFHydro: A new watershed-scale model for post-fire runoff simulation

Runoff increases after wildfires that burn vegetation and create a condition of soil-water repellence (SWR). A new post-fire watershed hydrological model, PFHydro, was created to explicitly simulate vegetation interception and SWR effects for four burn severity categories: high, medium, low severity and unburned. The model was applied to simulate post-fire runoff from the Upper Cache Creek Watershed in California, USA. Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) was used to assess model performance. The NSE was 0.80 and 0.88 for pre-fire water years (WY) 2000 and 2015, respectively. NSE was 0.88 and 0.93 for WYs 2016 (first year post-fire) and 2017 respectively. The simulated percentage of surface runoff in total runoff of WY 2016 was about six times that of pre-fire WY 2000 and three times that of WY 2015. The modeling results suggest that SWR is an important factor for post-fire runoff generation. The model was successful at simulating SWR behavior.

California↗
USGS2020

Spatially explicit reconstruction of post-megafire forest recovery through landscape modeling

Megafires are large wildfires that occur under extreme weather conditions and produce mixed burn severities across diverse environmental gradients. Assessing megafire effects requires data covering large spatiotemporal extents, which are difficult to collect from field inventories. Remote sensing provides an alternative but is limited in revealing post-fire recovery trajectories and the underlying processes that drive the recovery. We developed a novel framework to spatially reconstruct the post-fire time-series of forest conditions after the 1987 Black Dragon fire of China by integrating a forest landscape model (LANDIS) with remote sensing and inventory data. We derived pre-fire (1985) forest composition and the megafire perimeter and severity using remote sensing and inventory data. We simulated the megafire and the post-megafire forest recovery from 1985 to 2015 using the LANDIS model. We demonstrated that the framework was effective in reconstructing the post-fire stand dynamics and that it is applicable to other types of disturbances.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2024

An open-source workflow for scaling burn severity metrics from drone to satellite to support post-fire watershed management

Wildfires are increasing in size and severity across much of the western United States, exposing vulnerable wildland-urban interfaces to post-fire hazards. The Mediterranean chaparral region of Northern California contains many high sloping watersheds prone to hazardous post-fire flood events and identifying watersheds at high risk of soil loss and debris flows is a priority for post-fire response and management. Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS; aka drones) offer post-fire management teams the ability to quickly mobilize and survey burned areas with very high-resolution imagery (∼1 cm), facilitating emergency management and post-fire hazard assessment. However, adoption of this technology by hazard response teams may be hindered by complicated workflows for UAS data acquisition, image processing and analysis. We present an open-source workflow using mature Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software and Python packages in a Jupyter Notebook environment that guides users through classification of true-color UAS imagery to generate high resolution burn severity maps which can then be scaled across larger watersheds using Sentinel-2 normalized burn ratio (NBR) images. Soil burn severity classifications using a weighted brightness (WB) image and Char Index (CI) generated from UAS imagery were validated with in-situ data and random stratified points, resulting in the CI having the highest overall accuracy of 87.5%. CI also displayed a marginally stronger relationship over the WB with the post-fire Sentinel-2 NBR, R 2 = 0.79 and R 2 = 0.78 respectively. Our methods offer the unique opportunity to standardize GIS workflows, promoting replication through transparency, while improving the user's understanding of scientific GIS functionality.

California↗
USGS2009

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2009

Thermal characteristics of amphibian microhabitats in a fire-disturbed landscape

Disturbance has long been a central issue in amphibian conservation, often regarding negative effects of logging or other forest management activities, but some amphibians seem to prefer disturbed habitats. After documenting increased use of recently burned forests by boreal toads (Bufo boreas), we hypothesized that burned habitats provided improved thermal opportunities in terrestrial habitats. We tested this hypothesis by conducting a radio telemetry study of habitat use (reported previously) and by using physical models that simulated the temperature of adult toads. We deployed 108 physical models in and adjacent to a 1-year old burn using a fully-replicated design with three burn severities (unburned, partial, high severity) and four microhabitats (open surface, under vegetation, under log, in burrow). Model temperatures were compared to a range of preferred temperatures in published studies. We found 70% more observations within the preferred temperature range of B. boreas in forests burned with high severity than in unburned areas. Burned forest was warmer than unburned forest across all microhabitats, but the largest relative difference was in burrows, which averaged 3 ??C warmer in high-severity burn areas and remained warmer though the night. More than twice as many observations were within the preferred temperature range in high-severity burrows than in unburned burrows. Areas burned with high severity were still warmer than unburned forest 3 years after the fire. Habitat use of toads during the concurrent radio telemetry study matched that predicted by the physical models. These results suggest there are fitness-linked benefits to toads using burned habitats, such as increased growth, fertility, and possibly disease resistance. However, increased soil temperatures that result from wildfire may be detrimental to other amphibian species that prefer cooler temperatures and stable environments. More broadly, our data illustrate the use of physical models to measure and interpret changes that amphibians may experience from disturbance, and highlight the need for research linking vital rates such as growth and survival to disturbance.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2010

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2010

Canopy gap dynamics of second-growth red spruce-northern hardwood stands in West Virginia

Forest restoration requires an understanding of the natural disturbance regime of the target community and estimates of the historic range of variability of ecosystem components (composition, structure, and disturbance processes). Management prescriptions that support specific restoration activities should be consistent with these parameters. In this study, we describe gap-phase dynamics of even-aged, second-growth red spruce-northern hardwood stands in West Virginia that have been significantly degraded following early Twentieth Century harvesting and wildfire. In the current stage of stand development, gaps tended to be small, with mean canopy gap and extended canopy gap sizes of 53.4m2 and 199.3m2, respectively, and a canopy turnover rate of 1.4%year-1. The majority of gaps resulted from the death of one or two trees. American beech snags were the most frequent gap maker, partially due to the elevated presence of beech-bark disease in the study area. Gaps ranged in age from 1 to 28 years, had a mean of 13 years, and were unimodal in distribution. We projected red spruce to be the eventual gap filler in approximately 40% of the gaps. However, we estimated that most average-sized gaps will close within 15-20 years before red spruce canopy ascension is projected (30-60 years). Accordingly, many understory red spruce will require more than one overhead release - an observation verified by the tree-ring record and consistent with red spruce life history characteristics. Based on our observations, silvicultural prescriptions that include overhead release treatments such as thinning from above or small gap creation through selection harvesting could be an appropriate activity to foster red spruce restoration in the central Appalachians. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗