Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Pathogens”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Effects of aquaculture production noise on hearing, growth, and disease resistance of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss

Intensive aquaculture production often utilizes equipment (e.g., aerators, air and water pumps, harvesters, blowers, filtration systems, and maintenance machinery) that increases noise levels in fish culture tanks. Consequently, chronic exposure to elevated noise levels in tanks could negatively impact cultured species. Possible effects include impairment of the auditory system, increased stress, and reduced growth rates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term effects of sound exposure on the hearing sensitivity, growth, and survival of cultured rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Two cohorts of rainbow trout were cultured for 8??months in replicated tanks consisting of three sound treatments: 115, 130, or 150 decibels referenced at 1 micropascal (dB re 1????Pa root mean square [RMS]) levels. Auditory evoked potential (AEP) recordings revealed no significant differences in hearing thresholds resulting from exposure to increased ambient sound levels. Although there was no evident noise-induced hearing loss, there were significant differences in hearing thresholds between the two fish cohorts examined. No statistical effect of sound treatment was found for growth rate and mortality within each fish cohort. There was no significant difference in mortality between sound treatments when fish were exposed to the pathogen Yersinia ruckeri, but there was significantly different mortality between cohorts. This study indicated that rainbow trout hearing sensitivity, growth, survival, stress, and disease susceptibility were not negatively impacted by noise levels common to recirculating aquaculture systems. These findings should not be generalized to all cultured fish species, however, because many species, including catfish and cyprinids, have much greater hearing sensitivity than rainbow trout and could be affected differently by noise. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aquaculture↗
USGS2016

Experimental infection of six North American fish species with the North Carolina strain of spring Viremia of Carp Virus

Spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) is a rhabdoviral pathogen associated with disease outbreaks in cultured and wild fish worldwide. Common carp ( Cyprinus carpio carp ), and koi ( C. carpio koi ) suffer the highest mortalities from SVCV infections, while other cyprinid fish species have varying susceptibility. Although salmonid fish typically are considered refractory to infection by SVCV, there have been a few reports suggesting infection has occurred in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). There have been no reports of Percid fish being infected with SVCV. Since the first North American outbreak of SVCV at a North Carolina koi farm in 2002 there have been eight subsequent detections or outbreaks of SVCV among fish species from the families of Cyprinidae and Centrarchidae within the US and Canada. Thus, this exotic virus is considered a potential threat to native and cultured fish populations in North America. We performed multiple experimental challenges with fish species from three families ( Salmonidae , Cyprinidae , and Percidae ) to identify the potential risk associated with SVCV exposure of resident fish populations in North America. Three salmonid species, rainbow and steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), and sockeye salmon ( O. nerka ), were challenged by immersion or injection with the North Carolina SVCV isolate. Two cyprinid species, koi and fathead minnow ( Pimephales promelas ) and one percid species, yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) were also challenged. Koi were highly susceptible to SVCV up to 11 months of age and fathead minnows had chronic disease expression with moderate mortality (29%). SVCV also induced moderate mortalities (33%) in yellow perch fry. Virus challenged salmonid fish had cumulative percent mortalities ranging from 0 to 100%, with sockeye salmon fry being the most vulnerable. A sub-sample of mortalities and survivors were screened for virus by plaque assay and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. In general, all mortalities tested positive for SVCV with high viral titers while survivors had variable persistence of SVCV with overall lower virus titers. Our SVCV challenges of multiple North American fish species suggested that host age is a key factor in determining disease outcome. Other factors, such as fish broodstock, virus strain, water temperature, and rearing conditions in association with the intrinsic level of species susceptibility may also impact infection dynamics. This is the first report of SVCV infecting a species (yellow perch) in the family Percidae and that sockeye salmon fry can suffer similarly high mortalities as the primary SVCV host species.

Aquaculture↗
USGS2015

Successful mitigation of viral disease based on a delayed exposure rearing strategy at a large-scale steelhead trout conservation hatchery

In 2009, the largest steelhead trout conservation hatchery in the state of Idaho, Dworshak National Fish Hatchery (NFH), lost over 50% of the juvenile steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) population being reared for release. The causative agent of this high mortality was the viral pathogen infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV). This was neither the first nor the worst epidemic of IHNV to occur at the hatchery, but it was the worst in over a decade. Genetic analysis of IHNV isolates taken from juveniles suffering epidemic IHN disease in 2009 revealed that the virus was of the M group of IHNV viruses, known to have high virulence for trout. The water supply for steelhead trout rearing at Dworshak NFH is untreated water taken directly from the Clearwater River. Further genetic analysis of IHNV isolates from adults spawned in 2009 indicated that adult steelhead trout in the river (in the hatchery water supply) were the most probable transmission source for the epidemic IHN disease in the juvenile fish. Previously, Dworshak NFH had been able to gain access to reservoir water from behind the Dworshak Dam for nursery egg incubation and the earliest stage of fry rearing, which nearly eliminated incidence of IHN disease in that stage of rearing. Additionally, the nearby Clearwater State Fish Hatchery (SFH), which operates entirely with reservoir water, has never had a case of IHN disease in juvenile steelhead trout. Therefore, staff at Dworshak NFH sought and obtained access to a limited supply of reservoir water for the first few months of outdoor rearing of juvenile steelhead trout, beginning in 2010. This strategy delayed the exposure of juvenile steelhead trout to river water for several months. The effects of this program change were: drastic reduction in IHN disease in juvenile steelhead trout; interruption in the transmission of highly virulent M group IHNV from adult steelhead trout; no interruption in the transmission of low virulent U group IHNV from adult Chinook salmon; and a shift of IHNV types in adult fish spawned at Dworshak NFH in subsequent years from M to U group viruses. While juvenile steelhead trout may still be infected via exposure to IHNV in river water, the disruption of virulent M group IHNV has been successful in dramatically reducing IHN disease in steelhead trout every year since 2010.

Idaho↗
USGS2005

Contaminants as viral cofactors: assessing indirect population effects

Current toxicological methods often miss contaminant effects, particularly when immune suppression is involved. The failure to recognize and evaluate indirect and sublethal effects severely limits the applicability of those methods at the population level. In this study, the Vitality model is used to evaluate the population level effects of a contaminant exerting only indirect, sublethal effects at the individual level. Juvenile rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) were injected with 2.5 or 10.0 mg/kg doses of the model CYP1A inducer, β-naphthoflavone (BNF) as a pre-stressor, then exposed to a challenge dose of 10 2 or 10 4 pfu/fish of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), an important viral pathogen of salmonids in North America. At the end of the 28-d challenge, the mortality data were processed according to the Vitality model which indicated that the correlation between the average rate of vitality loss and the pre-stressor dose was strong: R 2 = 0.9944. Average time to death and cumulative mortality were dependent on the BNF dose, while no significant difference between the two viral dosages was shown, implying that the history of the organism at the time of stressor exposure is an important factor in determining the virulence or toxicity of the stressor. The conceptual framework of this model permits a smoother transfer of results to a more complex stratum, namely the population level, which allows the immunosuppressive results generated by doses of a CYP1A inducer that more accurately represent the effects elicited by environmentally-relevant contaminant concentrations to be extrapolated to target populations. The indirect effects of other environmental contaminants with similar biotransformation pathways, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), could be assessed and quantified with this model and the results applied to a more complex biological hierarchy.

Aquatic Toxicology↗
USGS2025

Density dependence and weather drive dabbling duck spatiotemporal distributions and intercontinental migration

Understanding migratory waterfowl spatiotemporal distributions is important because, in addition to their economic and cultural value, wild waterfowl can be infectious reservoirs of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Waterfowl migration has been implicated in regional and intercontinental HPAIV dispersal, and predictive capabilities of where and when HPAIV may be introduced to susceptible spillover hosts would facilitate biosecurity and mitigation efforts. To develop forecasts for HPAIV dispersal, an improved understanding of how individual birds interact with their environment and move on a landscape scale is required. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we integrated individual-scale energetics, species-specific morphology and behavior, and landscape-scale weather and habitat data in a mechanistic stochastic framework to simulate Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) annual migration across the Northern Hemisphere. Our model recreated biologically realistic migratory patterns using a first principles approach to waterfowl ecology, behavior, and physiology. Conducting a limited structural sensitivity analysis comparing reduced models to eBird Status and Trends in reference to the full model, we identified density dependence as the main factor influencing spring migration and breeding distributions, and wind as the main factor influencing fall migration and overwintering distributions. We show evidence of weather patterns in Northeast Asia causing significant intercontinental pintail migration to North America. By linking individual energetics to landscape-scale processes, we identify key drivers of waterfowl migration while developing a predictive model responsive to daily weather patterns. This model paves the way for future waterfowl migration research predicting HPAIV transmission, climate change impacts, and oil spill effects.

Avian Research↗
USGS2013

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2025

Understanding and predicting infection dynamics for an endangered amphibian using long-term surveys of wild and translocated frogs

Amphibians are a prominent component of Earth's sixth mass extinction and the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a primary driver of declines. Although Bd dynamics are well studied, the environmental drivers, exacerbating risk factors, and value of conservation interventions like translocations remain challenging to predict. Here, we present results from two decades of Bd monitoring for mountain yellow-legged frogs ( Rana muscosa) in the southern California Transverse and Peninsular mountain ranges. We describe Bd prevalence and infection intensity across sites; model how variables associated with climate, habitat, and populations relate to prevalence; and integrate Bd data from wild and translocated frogs to test whether a machine learning system can predict infection prevalence at new sites. Our findings indicate substantial spatiotemporal variation in Bd dynamics. Bd was present at all sites but prevalence and infection intensities were often low. Environmental features including temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and shortwave radiation explained significant variation in Bd prevalence, but their predictive value varied across mountain ranges. Although clear environmental predictors across populations remain elusive, we provide evidence for the importance of warmer and wetter springs and winters, with implications of increased risk under climate change predictions. We also found evidence for higher Bd prevalence among translocated than wild frogs. Although our machine learning model predicted a Bd prevalence threshold with relatively high accuracy, understanding the factors driving within- and between-population Bd dynamics is complex. Taken together, our findings provide new insights into the complicated role of Bd in amphibian declines and suggest revised management approaches.

California↗
USGS2011

Notes on the origin of inertinite macerals in coals: Funginite associations with cutinite and suberinite

The association of fungus with plant leaves and roots is ubiquitous. While many of these occurrences are considered to be pathogenic, mycorrhizzal fungal associations with roots are essential for plant growth. Despite the common knowledge of such relationships in plant science, with a few exceptions, the fungus/leaf/root/stem association as the macerals funginite, cutinite, and suberinite in coals has not been extensively studied. In this work, examples of funginite associations with cutinite and suberinite are discussed. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2007

River plume patterns and dynamics within the Southern California Bight

Stormwater river plumes are important vectors of marine contaminants and pathogens in the Southern California Bight. Here we report the results of a multi-institution investigation of the river plumes across eight major river systems of southern California. We use in situ water samples from multi-day cruises in combination with MODIS satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns and dynamics of the freshwater plumes. River discharge was exceptionally episodic, and the majority of storm discharge occurred in a few hours. The combined plume observing techniques revealed that plumes commonly detach from the coast and turn to the left, which is the opposite direction of Coriolis influence. Although initial offshore velocity of the buoyant plumes was ∼50 cm/s and was influenced by river discharge inertia (i.e., the direct momentum of the river flux) and buoyancy, subsequent advection of the plumes was largely observed in an alongshore direction and dominated by local winds. Due to the multiple day upwelling wind conditions that commonly follow discharge events, plumes were observed to flow from their respective river mouths to down-coast waters at rates of 20–40 km/d. Lastly, we note that suspended-sediment concentration and beam-attenuation were poorly correlated with plume salinity across and within the sampled plumes (mean r 2 =0.12 and 0.25, respectively), while colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence was well correlated (mean r 2 =0.56), suggesting that CDOM may serve as a good tracer of the discharged freshwater in subsequent remote sensing and monitoring efforts of plumes.

California↗
USGS2013

Emerging and reemerging diseases of avian wildlife

Of the many important avian wildlife diseases, aspergillosis, West Nile virus, avipoxvirus, Wellfleet Bay virus, avian influenza, and inclusion body disease of cranes are covered in this article. Wellfleet Bay virus, first identified in 2010, is considered an emerging disease. Avian influenza and West Nile virus have recently been in the public eye because of their zoonotic potential and links to wildlife. Several diseases labeled as reemerging are included because of recent outbreaks or, more importantly, recent research in areas such as genomics, which shed light on the mechanisms whereby these adaptable, persistent pathogens continue to spread and thrive.

Veterinary Clinics of North America: Exotic Animal↗
USGS2013

Expression kinetics of key genes in the early innate immune response to Great Lakes viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus IVb infection in yellow perch ( Perca flavescens )

The recently discovered strain of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus, VHSV-IVb, represents an example of the introduction of an extremely pathogenic rhabdovirus capable of infecting a wide variety of new fish species in a new host-environment. The goal of the present study was to delineate the expression kinetics of key genes in the innate immune response relative to the very early stages of VHSV-IVb infection using the yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) as a model. Administration of VHSV-IVb by IP-injection into juvenile yellow perch resulted in 84% cumulative mortality, indicating their high susceptibility to this disease. In fish sampled in the very early stages of infection, a significant up-regulation of Mx gene expression in the liver, as well as IL-1β and SAA activation in the head kidney, spleen, and liver was directly correlated to viral load. The potential down-regulation of Mx in the hematopoietic tissues, head kidney and spleen, may represent a strategy utilized by the virus to increase replication.

Developmental and Comparative Immunology↗
USGS2017

Evolutionary dynamics of an expressed MHC class IIβ locus in the Ranidae (Anura) uncovered by genome walking and high-throughput amplicon sequencing

The Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) is a genomic region encoding immune loci that are important and frequently used markers in studies of adaptive genetic variation and disease resistance. Given the primary role of infectious diseases in contributing to global amphibian declines, we characterized the hypervariable exon 2 and flanking introns of the MHC Class IIβ chain for 17 species of frogs in the Ranidae, a speciose and cosmopolitan family facing widespread pathogen infections and declines. We find high levels of genetic variation concentrated in the Peptide Binding Region (PBR) of the exon. Ten codons are under positive selection, nine of which are located in the mammal-defined PBR. We hypothesize that the tenth codon (residue 21) is an amphibian-specific PBR site that may be important in disease resistance. Trans-species and trans-generic polymorphisms are evident from exon-based genealogies, and co-phylogenetic analyses between intron, exon and mitochondrial based reconstructions reveal incongruent topologies, likely due to different locus histories. We developed two sets of barcoded adapters that reliably amplify a single and likely functional locus in all screened species using both 454 and Illumina based sequencing methods. These primers provide a resource for multiplexing and directly sequencing hundreds of samples in a single sequencing run, avoiding the labour and chimeric sequences associated with cloning, and enabling MHC population genetic analyses. Although the primers are currently limited to the 17 species we tested, these sequences and protocols provide a useful genetic resource and can serve as a starting point for future disease, adaptation and conservation studies across a range of anuran taxa.

Developmental and Comparative Immunology↗
USGS2016

Spatial prediction of wheat Septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici) disease severity in central Ethiopia

A number of studies have reported the presence of wheat septoria leaf blotch ( Septoria tritici ; SLB) disease in Ethiopia. However, the environmental factors associated with SLB disease, and areas under risk of SLB disease, have not been studied. Here, we tested the hypothesis that environmental variables can adequately explain observed SLB disease severity levels in West Shewa, Central Ethiopia. Specifically, we identified 50 environmental variables and assessed their relationships with SLB disease severity. Geographically referenced disease severity data were obtained from the field, and linear regression and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) modeling approaches were used for developing spatial models. Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived vegetation indices and land surface temperature (LST) variables highly influenced SLB model predictions. Soil and topographic variables did not sufficiently explain observed SLB disease severity variation in this study. Our results show that wheat growing areas in Central Ethiopia, including highly productive districts, are at risk of SLB disease. The study demonstrates the integration of field data with modeling approaches such as BRT for predicting the spatial patterns of severity of a pathogenic wheat disease in Central Ethiopia. Our results can aid Ethiopia's wheat disease monitoring efforts, while our methods can be replicated for testing related hypotheses elsewhere.

Ecological Informatics↗
USGS2014

Bird migration and avian influenza: a comparison of hydrogen stable isotopes and satellite tracking methods

Satellite-based tracking of migratory waterfowl is an important tool for understanding the potential role of wild birds in the long-distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza. However, employing this technique on a continental scale is prohibitively expensive. This study explores the utility of stable isotope ratios in feathers in examining both the distances traveled by migratory birds and variation in migration behavior. We compared the satellite-derived movement data of 22 ducks from 8 species captured at wintering areas in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Hong Kong with deuterium ratios (δD) in the feathers of these and other individuals captured at the same locations. We derived likely molting locations from the satellite tracking data and generated expected isotope ratios based on an interpolated map of δD in rainwater. Although δD was correlated with the distance between wintering and molting locations, surprisingly, measured δD values were not correlated with either expected values or latitudes of molting sites. However, population-level parameters derived from the satellite-tracking data, such as mean distance between wintering and molting locations and variation in migration distance, were reflected by means and variation of the stable isotope values. Our findings call into question the relevance of the rainfall isotope map for Asia for linking feather isotopes to molting locations, and underscore the need for extensive ground truthing in the form of feather-based isoscapes. Nevertheless, stable isotopes from feathers could inform disease models by characterizing the degree to which regional breeding populations interact at common wintering locations. Feather isotopes also could aid in surveying wintering locations to determine where high-resolution tracking techniques (e.g. satellite tracking) could most effectively be employed. Moreover, intrinsic markers such as stable isotopes offer the only means of inferring movement information from birds that have died as a result of infection. In the absence of feather based-isoscapes, we recommend a combination of isotope analysis and satellite-tracking as the best means of generating aggregate movement data for informing disease models.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2022

The role of monitoring and research in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in framing our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians

Emerging infectious disease threatens amphibian biodiversity worldwide, including in landscapes that are protected from many anthropogenic stressors. We summarized data from studies in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), one of the largest and most complete temperate-zone ecosystems on Earth, to assess the current state of knowledge about ranaviruses and the novel amphibian chytrid fungus (Bd) in this landscape, and to provide insight into future threats and conservation strategies. Our comprehension of these amphibian diseases in the GYE is based on >20 years of monitoring, surveys, population studies, and opportunistic observations of mortality events. Research indicates that local species are affected differently, depending on temperature, community structure, and location in the GYE. Bd has not been linked to die-offs in the GYE but evidence for ongoing reductions in survival contributes to foundational data about the effects of this pathogen in North America. Localized mortality events attributed to, or consistent with, disease from ranaviruses, are widespread in the GYE, but there is less information on how ranaviruses affect amphibian vital rates. The significance of disease in the long-term persistence of amphibians in the GYE is linked to anticipated changes in climate, especially drought. Additionally, expected increases in visitor use, and its associated impacts, have the potential to exacerbate the effects of disease. Long-term information from this large, intact landscape helps to frame our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians and provides data that can contribute to management decisions, mitigation strategies, and forecasting efforts.

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

A model for the interaction of frog population dynamics with Batrachochytrium dendrobaties , Janthinobacterium lividium and temperature and its implication for chytridiomycosis management

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging disease caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) that poses a serious threat to frog populations worldwide. Several studies have shown that inoculation of bacterial species Janthinobacterium lividum ( Jl ) can mitigate the impact of the disease. However, there are many questions regarding this interaction. A mathematical model of a frog population infected with chytridiomycosis is developed to investigate how the inoculation of Jl could reduce the impact of Bd disease on frogs. The model also illustrates the important role of temperature in disease dynamics. The model simulation results suggest possible control strategies for Jl to limit the impact of Bd in various scenarios. However, a better knowledge of Jl life cycle is needed to fully understand the interaction of Jl , Bd , temperature and frogs.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2019

Optimal spatial allocation of control effort to manage invasives in the face of imperfect detection and misclassification

Imperfect detection and misclassification errors are often ignored in the context of invasive species management. Here we present an approach that combines spatially explicit models and an optimization technique to design optimal search and destroy strategies based on noisy monitoring observations. We focus on two invasive plants, melaleuca ( Melaleuca quinquenervia ) and Old World climbing fern ( Lygodium microphyllum ), which continue to cause important damages to the Everglades ecosystem. We present a methodological framework that combines Hidden Markov Random Field (HMRF, initially developed for image analysis) and linear programming to optimally search for invasive species. A benefit of this approach is that it accounts for the spatial structure of the system by using a spatially explicit modeling approach (i.e. HMRF), and does not require repeated visits to model the probability of occurrence of species. We found on simulated cases that our approach can lead to substantial improvements in control efficiency when compared to state of the art model-free approaches. For example, in the case of the old world fern, simulations showed that the optimal strategy would allow managers to control up to 34% more sites than with model-free approaches that ignored misclassification and imperfect detection. For melaleuca it was possible to control up to 20% more sites. The vast increase in imagery data obtained from different sources (e.g. unmanned aerial systems, and satellite) provides great opportunities to improve management of natural resources by applying modern computational methods such as the one we present. Our approach can substantially increases the efficiency of invasive species control by accounting for imperfect detection, misclassification error and the spatial structure of the system. Our approach is applicable to other systems and problems, for example it could be applied to the control of plant pathogens, or optimal extraction of resources (e.g. minerals or biological resources).

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2022

Informing surveillance through the characterization of outbreak potential of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

Understanding the role that an environmental prion reservoir plays in the outbreak dynamics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in free ranging white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is critical for the allocation of disease surveillance resources by state and provincial wildlife agencies. We hypothesized that demographic, ecological, and epidemiological configurations naturally attenuate epidemic risk despite the introduction of infectious prions into a susceptible population of deer, but the magnitude of infectious prions in the environmental prion reservoir complicate outbreak expectations. We developed a Susceptible-Latent-Exposed-Infective (SLEI) compartment model to represent the dynamics of CWD epidemics in free-ranging white-tailed deer, then used the basic reproductive ratio ( R 0 "> R0 ) to pinpoint counties under which pathogenic introduction (transport of infectious bodily fluids, tissues, and carcasses through natural or anthropogenic means) naturally produced (or failed to produce) an epidemic. We found that the outlook for an epidemic hinged on transmission rates, the magnitude of environmental contamination, and system type (density-, frequency-, or density/frequency-dependent). CWD can persistently infect individuals living in a contaminated environment even if direct transmission is insufficient to sustain circulation. Theoretical results show that transmission of CWD cannot be exclusively density dependent, and must behave as either a mix between frequency and density dependent, or strictly frequency dependent. While the compartment model is a simplistic representation of reality and did not contain many complicating biological considerations, it was immediately useful in hypothesis generation, motivating the collection of additional data for use in more biologically detailed models, and in the allocation of finite surveillance resources to place emphasis on data collection in areas where an introduction of infectious prions is comparatively more likely to result in an epidemic.

Ecological Modelling↗