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Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Validation of ground-motion simulations for historical events using SDoF systems

The study presented in this paper is among the first in a series of studies toward the engineering validation of the hybrid broadband ground‐motion simulation methodology by Graves and Pitarka (2010). This paper provides a statistical comparison between seismic demands of single degree of freedom (SDoF) systems subjected to past events using simulations and actual recordings. A number of SDoF systems are selected considering the following: (1) 16 oscillation periods between 0.1 and 6 s; (2) elastic case and four nonlinearity levels, from mildly inelastic to severely inelastic systems; and (3) two hysteretic behaviors, in particular, nondegrading–nonevolutionary and degrading–evolutionary. Demand spectra are derived in terms of peak and cyclic response, as well as their statistics for four historical earthquakes: 1979 M w 6.5 Imperial Valley, 1989 M w 6.8 Loma Prieta, 1992 M w 7.2 Landers, and 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Casual instrument corrections for short-period and broadband seismometers

Of all the filters applied to recordings of seismic waves, which include source, path, and site effects, the one we know most precisely is the instrument filter. Therefore, it behooves seismologists to accurately remove the effect of the instrument from raw seismograms. Applying instrument corrections allows analysis of the seismogram in terms of physical units (e.g., displacement or particle velocity of the Earth’s surface) instead of the output of the instrument (e.g., digital counts). The instrument correction can be considered the most fundamental processing step in seismology since it relates the raw data to an observable quantity of interest to seismologists. Complicating matters is the fact that, in practice, the term “instrument correction” refers to more than simply the seismometer. The instrument correction compensates for the complete recording system including the seismometer, telemetry, digitizer, and any anti‐alias filters. Knowledge of all these components is necessary to perform an accurate instrument correction. The subject of instrument corrections has been covered extensively in the literature (Seidl, 1980; Scherbaum, 1996). However, the prospect of applying instrument corrections still evokes angst among many seismologists—the authors of this paper included. There may be several reasons for this. For instance, the seminal paper by Seidl (1980) exists in a journal that is not currently available in electronic format and cannot be accessed online. Also, a standard method for applying instrument corrections involves the programs TRANSFER and EVALRESP in the Seismic Analysis Code (SAC) package (Goldstein et al. , 2003). The exact mathematical methods implemented in these codes are not thoroughly described in the documentation accompanying SAC.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Method

This brief article describes refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) broadband ground motion simulation methodology (GP2010 hereafter) that have been implemented in version 14.3 of the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP). The updated version of our method on the current SCEC BBP is referred to as GP14.3. Our simulation technique is a hybrid approach that combines low-­‐frequency and high-­‐frequency motions computed with different methods into a single broadband response. The separate low-­‐ and high-­‐frequency components have traditionally been called “deterministic” and “stochastic”, respectively; however, this nomenclature is an oversimplification. In reality, the low-­‐frequency approach includes many stochastic elements, and likewise, the high-­‐frequency approach includes many deterministic elements (e.g., Pulido and Kubo, 2004; Hartzell et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2006; Frankel, 2009; Graves and Pitarka, 2010; Mai et al., 2010). While the traditional terminology will likely remain in use by the broader modeling community, in this paper we will refer to these using the generic terminology “low-­‐frequency” and “high-­‐ frequency” approaches. Furthermore, one of the primary goals in refining our methodology is to provide a smoother and more consistent transition between the low-­‐ and high-­‐ frequency calculations, with the ultimate objective being the development of a single unified modeling approach that can be applied over a broad frequency band. GP2010 was validated by modeling recorded strong motions from four California earthquakes. While the method performed well overall, several issues were identified including the tendency to over-­‐predict the level of longer period (2-­‐5 sec) motions and the effects of rupture directivity. The refinements incorporated in GP14.3 are aimed at addressing these issues with application to the simulation of earthquakes in Western US (WUS). These refinements include the addition of a deep weak zone (details in following section) to the rupture characterization and allowing perturbations in the correlation of rise time and rupture speed with the specified slip distribution. Additionally, we have extended the parameterization of GP14.3 so that it is also applicable for simulating Eastern North America (ENA) earthquakes. This work has been guided by the comprehensive set of validation studies described in Goulet and Abrahamson (2014) and Dreger et al. (2014). The GP14.3 method shows improved performance relative to GP2010, and we direct the interested reader to Dreger et al. (2014) for a detailed assessment of the current methodology. In this paper, we concentrate on describing the modifications in more detail, and also discussing additional refinements that are currently being developed.

California↗

Comparison of co-recorded analog and digital systems for characterization of responses and uncertainties

One of the most prominent challenges related to legacy seismic data is determining how these data can be appropriately used in modern research applications. The wide variety of instrumentation used in the analog era, the format of recording on paper wrapped around a helicorder drum, and limited metadata information introduces ambiguities that are not typical of modern digital data. Therefore, techniques must be developed to help characterize uncertainties in legacy data. This article presents an analysis that compares corecorded signals from two instruments—a Trillium Compact or Press‐Ewing (PE) seismometer for sensing ground motion and two recording systems: a modern Q330 digitizer or heated‐stylus system. Analyses of the recordings in both time and frequency domains indicate time uncertainty on the order of one second, identify a flat response in a 10–60 s band for the PE and drum recorder, and highlight how specific features of scans and paper seismograms (e.g., repeated portions of scans and line thickness) can cause timing jumps or reduced trace amplitude.

Seismological Research Letters↗

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Preliminary report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector mine, California, earthquake

The M w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake occurred at 9:46 GMT on 16 October 1999. The event caused minimal damage because it was located in a remote, sparsely populated part of the Mojave Desert, approximately 47 miles east-southeast of Barstow, with epicentral coordinates 34.59°N 116.27°W and a hypocentral depth of 5 ± 3 km. Twelve foreshocks, M 1.9-3.8, preceded the mainshock during the previous twelve hours. All of these events were located close to the hypocenter of the mainshock. The Hector Mine earthquake occurred within the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). By virtue of its remote location, the societal impact of the Hector Mine earthquake was, fortunately, minimal in spite of the event's appreciable size. The ECSZ is characterized by high seismicity, a high tectonic strain rate, and a broad, distributed zone of north-northwest-trending faults (ECSZ; Figure 1 ; Dokka and Travis, 1990 ; Sauber et al., 1986 ; Sauber et al., 1994 ; Sieh et al., 1993 ). Data regarding the slip rates of faults within the ECSZ suggest that on the order of 15% of the Pacific-North American plate motion occurs along this zone ( Sauber et al., 1986 ; Wesnousky, 1986 ). Most of the faults in the ECSZ have low slip rates and long repeat times for major earthquakes, on the order of several thousands to tens of thousands of years. The occurrence of the Hector Mine earthquake within seven years and only about 30 km east of the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake suggests that the closely spaced surface faults in the ECSZ are mechanically related. The Hector Mine event involved rupture on two previously mapped fault zones—the Bullion Fault and an unnamed, more northerly-trending fault that is informally referred to in this paper as the Lavic Lake Fault (Dibblee, 1966 , 1967a , b ). Traces of the Bullion Fault exhibit evidence of Holocene displacement and were zoned as active in 1988 under California's Mquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act ( Hart and Bryant, 1997 ). The pattern of rupture along more than one named fault was also observed from the 1992 Landers earthquake ( Hauksson et al., 1993 ; Sieh et al., 1994). Much of the fault zone that produced the Hector Mine earthquake had been buried by relatively young stream deposits, and the fault scarps in bedrock have a subdued morphology. It appears that these faults have not experienced significant offset for perhaps 10,000 years or more ( Hart, 1987 ). Planned future investigations will refine the age of the last event on these faults. The portion of the Lavic Lake Fault that ruptured between the northern end of the Bullion Mountains and Lavic Lake had not previously been mapped. However, our field investigations have identified ancient, subdued fault scarps along portions of the 1999 rupture zone in this area. It thus appears that the entire segment of the Lavic Lake Fault that was involved in the 1999 event had ruptured in the past. As is typical for most faults within the Eastern California Shear Zone, the rate of movement along the Lavic Lake Fault may be quite slow (<1 mm/yr) and should produce earthquakes only infrequently. This event is a reminder that faults that have ruptured in late Quaternary time, but that lack evidence of Holocene displacement, can still produce earthquakes in this low-slip-rate tectonic setting. Additionally, the Hector Mine earthquake is noteworthy for a couple of other reasons. First, it clearly produced triggered seismicity over much of southern California, from the rupture zone toward the south-southwest in particular. Second, as we will discuss, the event may provide new data and insight into recently developed paradigms concerning earthquake interactions and the role of static stress changes. Questions such as these will, of course, be the subject of extensive detailed analyses in years to come. Fortunately, the Hector Mine sequence will provide one of the best data sets obtained to date for a significant earthquake in the United States. Because it occurred when major upgrades to both the regional seismic network (TriNet) and the regional geodetic network (SCIGN) were well underway, the Earth science community will have abundant high-quality data with which to explore the important and interesting questions that have been raised. In this paper, we present and discuss the basic data and preliminary results from the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

Comment on "How can seismic hazard around the New Madrid seismic zone be similar to that in California?" by Arthur Frankel

A recent paper in the September/October 2004 issue of Seismological Research Letters, “How Can Seismic Hazard around the New Madrid Seismic Zone Be Similar to That in California?”, by Arthur Frankel, concludes “I have demonstrated how probabilistic seismic hazard for New Madrid can be greater than that at San Francisco at low probabilities for PGA and similar at low probabilities for 5 Hz S.A. By low probabilities, I mean annual probabilities less than the reciprocal of the return time of the New Madrid characteristic source, that is, 1/500. This is a consequence of the higher ground motions, for PGA and 5 Hz S.A. (and other high-frequency measures), expected for large New Madrid characteristic earthquakes compared to San Andreas earthquakes with similar magnitudes.” His conclusion is confusing and not necessarily true. The fundamental differences in assessing seismic hazard between San Francisco and the New Madrid seismic zone are the uncertainties, especially the uncertainties associated with the ground-motion attenuation relationship. The larger ground-motion uncertainties in both the median and its standard deviation derive a higher hazard in the New Madrid area. The larger standard deviation, in particular, derives a higher hazard at low annual probabilities of exceedance. Moreover, Frankel also equated the hazard (annual probability of exceedance) defined in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with the average recurrence rate defined in engineering risk analysis. There is a fundamental difference in defining risk between PSHA and the engineering risk analysis. The risks—10%, 5%, and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years—defined in PSHA are not interchangeable with those defined in engineering risk analysis. Hence, though Frankel's stated intention was to improve understanding of PSHA among nonpractitioners, the paper may cause more confusion and problems for users of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard maps.

Seismological Research Letters↗

The 8 October 2006 Md 4.5 Cowlitz chimneys earthquake in Mount Rainier National Park

An M d 4.5 earthquake located ∼12 km east of Mount Rainier occurred on 8 October 2006 at 02:48 UTC ( figure 1 ). Although not large enough to be damaging or of major tectonic significance, a summary description of the earthquake is warranted because of its proximity to Mount Rainier, and because earthquakes of M d ≥ 4.5 are relatively rare in this region. Previous events of M d ≥ 4.5 have occurred approximately once a decade within a radius of ∼60 km from this mainshock, with the closest and most recent prior earthquake being an M d 4.9 event located 46 km to the southwest in 1989. Magnitudes in this paper refer to the coda duration magnitude determined by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) ( Crosson 1972 ). We refer to the 2006 event as the “Cowlitz Chimneys” earthquake because it occurred beneath the Cowlitz Chimneys, a prominent ridge in Mount Rainier National Park. This paper describes the mainshock's focal mechanism and its aftershock distribution. The inferred source mechanism, its ordinary aftershock sequence, and the lack of significant triggered seismicity near the volcanic edifice lead us to conclude that this was a regular tectonic crustal earthquake rather than one related to volcanic processes.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Preface to the Focused Issue on the 22 February 2011 Magnitude 6.2 Christchurch Earthquake

The 22 February 2011 magnitude 6.2 Christchurch earthquake, centered southeast of Christchurch, was part of the aftershock sequence that has been occurring since the September 2010 magnitude 7.1 quake near Darfield, 40 km west of the city. The Christchurch earthquake killed more than 180 people, damaged or destroyed more than 100,000 buildings, and is New Zealand's most deadly disaster since the earthquake that struck the Napier and Hastings area on 3 February 1931. This special focused issue of Seismological Research Letters , which I had the fortune to edit, contains a selected set of 19 original technical papers. These papers cover different aspects of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake from seismological, geodetic, geological, and engineering perspectives.

Christchurch↗

Ecology in the information age: Patterns of use and attrition rates of internet-based citations in ESA journals, 1997–2005

As the amount of information available on the internet has increased, so too has the number of citations to network-accessible information in scholarly research. We searched all papers in four Ecological Society of America journals from 1997 to 2005 for articles containing a citation to material on the internet. We then tested the links to determine whether the information cited in the paper was still accessible. We identified 877 articles that contained at least one link to information on the internet and a total of 2100 unique links. The majority of these citations were based on an object's location (Uniform Resource Locator; 77%), whereas the rest were based on an object's identity (eg Digital Object Identifier, GenBank Accession number). We found that 19–30% of the location-based links were unavailable and that there was a positive relationship between the age of an article and the probability of the link being inactive. Using an internet search engine, we recovered 72–84% of the lost information, leaving a total of 6.2% of the total citations unavailable. Our results highlight the problem of persistence of information stored on the world wide web and we include recommendations for minimizing this problem.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Does biodiversity protect humans against infectious disease? Reply

The dilution effect is the sort of idea that everyone wants to be true. If nature protects humans against infectious disease, imagine the implications: nature's value could be tallied in terms of human suffering avoided . This makes a potent argument for conservation, convincing even to those who would otherwise be disinclined to support conservation initiatives. The appeal of the dilution effect has been recognized by others: “the desire to make the case for conservation has led to broad claims regarding the benefits of nature conservation for human health” (Bauch et al. 2015 ). Randolph and Dobson ( 2012 ) were among the first to critique these claims, making the case that promotion of conservation to reduce Lyme disease risk, although well intentioned, was flawed. Along with Randolph and Dobson's critique, there have been several calls for a more nuanced scientific assessment of the relationship between biodiversity and disease transmission (Dunn 2010 , Salkeld et al. 2013 , Wood and Lafferty 2013 , Young et al. 2013 ). In response, supporters of the dilution effect have instead increased the scope of their generalizations with review papers, press releases, and, like Levi et al. (2015), letters. These responses have been successful; it is not uncommon to read papers that repeat the assertion that biodiversity generally interferes with disease transmission and that conservation will therefore generally benefit human health. Here, we explain how Levi et al. (2015) and other, similar commentaries use selective interpretation and shifting definitions to argue for the generality of the dilution effect hypothesis.

Ecology↗

Developing methods to assess and predict the population and community level effects of environmental contaminants

The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies—assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants—moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

Barrier island morphodynamic classification based on lidar metrics for north Assateague Island, Maryland

In order to reap the potential of airborne lidar surveys to provide geological information useful in understanding coastal sedimentary processes acting on various time scales, a new set of analysis methods are needed. This paper presents a multi-temporal lidar analysis of north Assateague Island, Maryland, and demonstrates the calculation of lidar metrics that condense barrier island morphology and morphological change into attributed linear features that may be used to analyze trends in coastal evolution. The new methods proposed in this paper are also of significant practical value, because lidar metric analysis reduces large volumes of point elevations into linear features attributed with essential morphological variables that are ideally suited for inclusion in Geographic Information Systems. A morphodynamic classification of north Assategue Island for a recent 10 month time period that is based on the recognition of simple patterns described by lidar change metrics is presented. Such morphodynamic classification reveals the relative magnitude and the fine scale alongshore variation in the importance of coastal changes over the study area during a defined time period. More generally, through the presentation of this morphodynamic classification of north Assateague Island, the value of lidar metrics in both examining large lidar data sets for coherent trends and in building hypotheses regarding processes driving barrier evolution is demonstrated

Maryland↗

Isometric block diagrams in mining geology

In the past five years members of the Geological Survey have gained experience in making isometric block diagrams of mines and mining districts as well as of surface features. This paper presents nothing new, but aims to assemble scattered information on a much neglected method of geological illustration. Plotting mine workings on isometric paper is the usual method but is extremely time-consuming. For most purposes the use of some form of isometric pantograph greatly lessens the labor of constructing the diagram. The devices of Dufour, Wentworth, Wilson, and Van der Hoop are described

Economic Geology↗

Ground-water provinces of India

This paper gives a general resume of ground-water utilization and development and describes the occurrence of water in eight ground-water provinces of India. The paper is based in part on observations of the writer during 1951-55 and in part on earlier work of the Geological Survey of India. Ground water has been utilized extensively in India since before the beginning of the Christian era. Currently (1956) ground water is an important source of supply for domestic, stock, municipal, and industrial needs throughout the Republic and is widely used for irrigation in the Peninsular and Ganges-Brahmaputra regions west of longitude 85°. Dug, bored, and drilled wells are the principal means by which ground water is developed, although locally infiltration tunnels or improved springs are used. Methods of lifting or pumping water from wells include the hand line and bucket, the hand-lift pump, the counterpoised sweep, bullocks, and "mote," the water wheel, horizontal and vertical centrifugal pumps, and deep-well turbine pumps. The most common device for lifting water for irrigation is still the time-honored bullock and "mote" (leather bag). However, in modern India there is increasing use of mechanical pumps. With respect to the occurrence of ground water, India can be divided into eight provinces, lying in three major regions, (1) the Peninsular region, (2) the Ganges-Brahmaputra region, and (3) the Himalayan region. The Peninsular region contains six ground-water provinces. Precambrian igneous, metamorphic, and indurated sedimentary rocks and early Tertiary volcanic rocks in three of these provinces yield many small supplies of water, which generally is of good quality but locally is brackish or salty. Cretaceous water-bearing sandstones in another province are moderately productive and in places are developed for large water supplies. Late Tertiary and Quaternary water-bearing sands and gravels in two other provinces sustain many small water supplies and several large water supplies-particularly in the coastal areas of southern India. The Ganges-Brahmaputra region is a single ground-water province in which many tens of thousands of small water supplies and several thousand large supplies are obtained from water-bearing sands and gravels in late Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium. This province constitutes a vast groundwater reservoir, which is the most productive in India. The Himalayan region also is considered as a single province, in which ground water occurs in a series of narrow valleys filled with moderately to highly permeable Quaternary alluvium. These alluvial valleys transmit large quantities of water to the ground-water reservoir in the Ganges-Brahmaputra region.

Economic Geology↗

Trends and traditions: Overview and synthesis

This paper provides an overview by the editors of a collection of 25 papers for the Studies of Western Birds, to be published in a single volume by Western Field Ornithologists. The title of the volume is: "Trends and traditions: Avifaunal change in western North America."

Book chapter↗