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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

USGS2019

New approach to assessing age uncertainties – The 2300-year varve chronology from Eklutna Lake, Alaska (USA)

Developing robust chronological frameworks of lacustrine sediment is central to reconstructing past environmental changes. We present varve chronologies from five sites extending back 2300 years from Eklutna Lake, in the Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. The chronologies are built from image analysis of high-resolution photographs and CT scans of sediment cores. The age uncertainty of each record is tested by three methods. We first present varve chronologies from individual sites and reconcile the difference in varve delimitation from two observers. The varve chronologies from each site are then compared to each other using a series of marker beds that can be traced across the lake basin. Finally, using a new Bayesian probabilistic model, we develop age models that incorporate information regarding age uncertainty from the multiple-observer method and the age distribution of marker layers from multiple cores. To evaluate the accuracy of the Bayesian model output, we used seven radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils and four tephra layers traceable across the core sites. The major-element geochemistry of the tephra layers and their ages are presented here for the first time. The Bayesian age model offers a new approach to quantifying age uncertainty in inter-correlated cores of varved sediment.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

Metal accumulation in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Model predictions compared to field data

The mechanistic bioaccumulation model OMEGA (Optimal Modeling for Ecotoxicological Applications) is used to estimate accumulation of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Our validation to field accumulation data shows that the model accurately predicts internal cadmium concentrations. In addition, our results show that internal metal concentrations in the earthworm are less than linearly (slope < 1) related to the total concentration in soil, while risk assessment procedures often assume the biota-soil accumulation factor (BSAF) to be constant. Although predicted internal concentrations of all metals are generally within a factor 5 compared to field data, incorporation of regulation in the model is necessary to improve predictability of the essential metals such as zinc and copper. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS2015

Water Quality, Cyanobacteria, and Environmental Factors and Their Relations to Microcystin Concentrations for Use in Predictive Models at Ohio Lake Erie and Inland Lake Recreational Sites, 2013-14

Harmful cyanobacterial “algal” blooms (cyanoHABs) and associated toxins, such as microcystin, are a major water-quality issue for Lake Erie and inland lakes in Ohio. Predicting when and where a bloom may occur is important to protect the public that uses and consumes a water resource; however, predictions are complicated and likely site specific because of the many factors affecting toxin production. Monitoring for a variety of environmental and water-quality factors, for concentrations of cyanobacteria by molecular methods, and for algal pigments such as chlorophyll and phycocyanin by using optical sensors may provide data that can be used to predict the occurrence of cyanoHABs. To test these monitoring approaches, water-quality samples were collected at Ohio recreational sites during May–November in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, samples were collected monthly at eight sites at eight lakes to facilitate an initial assessment and select sites for more intensive sampling during 2014. In 2014, samples were collected approximately weekly at five sites at three lakes. Physical water-quality parameters were measured at the time of sampling. Composite samples were preserved and analyzed for dissolved and total nutrients, toxins, phytoplankton abundance and biovolume, and cyanobacterial genes by molecular methods. Molecular assays were done to enumerate (1) general cyanobacteria, (2) general Microcystis and Dolichospermum ( Anabaena ), (3) mcyE genes for Microcystis , Dolichospermum ( Anabaena ), and Planktothrix targeting deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), and (4) mcyE transcripts for Microcystis , Dolichospermum ( Anabaena ), and Planktothrix targeting ribonucleic acid (RNA).The DNA assays for the mcyE gene provide data on cyanobacteria that have the potential to produce microcystin, whereas the RNA assays provide data on cyanobacteria that are actively transcribing the toxin gene. Environmental data were obtained from available online sources. Quality-control (QC) samples were collected and analyzed for all constituents to characterize bias and variability; however, QC data for molecular assays were examined in more detail than for the other constituents. The QC data for molecular assays suggested that sampling variability and qPCR variability were small in comparison with the combined variability associated with sample filtering, extraction and purification, and the matrix itself. A total of 46 water-quality samples were collected during 2013 at 8 beach sites—Buck Creek, Buckeye Crystal, Deer Creek, Harsha Main, Maumee Bay State Park (MBSP) Inland (negative control site), MBSP Lake Erie, Port Clinton, and Sandusky Bay. Microcystin was detected in 67–100 percent of samples at all sites except for MBSP Inland, where microcystin was detected in only 20 percent of samples. Microcystin concentrations ranged from <0.10 to 48 micrograms per liter (µ/L), with the widest range found at MBSP Lake Erie and the highest concentrations found at Buckeye Crystal. Saxitoxin was detected in five samples, and cylindrospermopsin was not detected in any samples. A total of 65 water-quality samples were collected during 2014 at 5 sites on 3 lakes—Buckeye Fairfield and Onion Island, Harsha Main and Campers, and MBSP Lake Erie beach. Four of the sites were bathing beaches and one site, Onion Island, was an offshore boater swim area. Concentrations of microcystin ranged from <0.10 to 240 µ/L and, as in 2013, the widest range was found at MBSP Lake Erie. At Buckeye Lake, microcystin concentrations were consistently high (greater than 20 µ/L), ranging from 23 to 81 µ/L. At Harsha Main and Campers, microcystin concentrations ranged from <0.10 to 15 µ/L. Saxitoxin was detected in four samples collected at MBSP Lake Erie. Throughout the 2014 season, the cyanobacterial community, as determined by molecular and microscopy methods, and the dominance associated with the highest microcystin concentrations were unique to individual lakes. At Buckeye Lake, Planktothrix dominated the cyanobacterial community throughout the season and Planktothrix DNA and RNA were found in 100 percent of samples; Microcystis mcyE DNA was found in low concentrations. At Harsha Lake, Dolichospermum and Microcystis were a substantial percentage of the community from late May through August, and the highest microcystin concentrations occurred in June and July. At MBSP Lake Erie, Microcystis generally dominated from mid-July through early November, and the highest microcystin concentrations occurred in August. Spearman’s correlation coefficient (rho) was computed to determine the relations between environmental and water-quality factors and microcystin concentrations at four sites—Buckeye Fairfield, Buckeye Onion Island, Harsha Main, and MBSP Lake Erie. Factors were evaluated for use as potential independent variables in two types of predictive models—daily and long-term models. Easily or continuously measured water-quality factors and available environmental data are used for daily predictions that do not require a site visit. Data from factors used in daily predictions and results from samples collected and analyzed in a laboratory are used for long-term predictions (a few days to several weeks). A few statistically significant correlations (p ≤ 0.05) between microcystin concentrations and factors for both daily and long-term predictions were found at Buckeye Onion Island, and many were found at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie. There were only a few statistically significant factors for daily predictions at Buckeye Fairfield, likely because of the lack of variability in microcystin concentrations. Among factors for daily predictions, phycocyanin had the highest Spearman’s correlation to microcystin concentrations (rho = 0.79 to 0.93) at all sites except for Buckeye Fairfield. Turbidity, pH, algae category, and Secchi depth were significantly correlated to microcystin concentrations at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie. Algae categories were observational categories from 0 (none) to 4 (extreme). Several discharge variables (Maumee River at Waterville, river mouth is approximately 3.5 miles from the beach) at MBSP Lake Erie were promising environmental factors for daily predictions. In addition to discrete water-quality measurements recorded at Harsha Main at the time of sampling, many manipulated measurements (factors derived from mathematical manipulation of time-series data) available from a nearby continuous monitor were strongly correlated to microcystin concentrations; the highest correlation was found for the relation between microcystin concentrations and the antecedent 7-day average phycocyanin (rho = 0.98). For long-term predictions, the most highly correlated molecular assays were Planktothrix mcyE DNA at Buckeye Onion Island and Microcystis mcyE DNA at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie. Concentrations of several nutrient constituents were significantly correlated to microcystin concentrations including total nitrogen at Buckeye Onion Island, ammonia and nitrate plus nitrite (both negatively correlated) at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie, and total phosphorus at MBSP Lake Erie. The results of this study showed that water-quality and environmental variables are promising for use in site-specific daily or long-term predictive models. In order to develop more accurate models to predict toxin concentrations at freshwater lake sites, data need to be collected more frequently and for consecutive days in future studies.

Ohio↗

USGS2013

Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance

Introduction Resource managers need spatially explicit models of hydrologic response to changes in key climatic drivers across variable landscape conditions. We demonstrate the utility of a Basin Characterization Model for California (CA-BCM) to integrate high-resolution data on physical watershed characteristics with historical or projected climate data to predict watershed-specific hydrologic responses. Methods The CA-BCM applies a monthly regional water-balance model to simulate hydrologic responses to climate at the spatial resolution of a 270-m grid. The model has been calibrated using a total of 159 relatively unimpaired watersheds for the California region. Results As a result of calibration, predicted basin discharge closely matches measured data for validation watersheds. The CA-BCM recharge and runoff estimates, combined with estimates of snowpack and timing of snowmelt, provide a basis for assessing variations in water availability. Another important output variable, climatic water deficit , integrates the combined effects of temperature and rainfall on site-specific soil moisture, a factor that plants may respond to more directly than air temperature and precipitation alone. Model outputs are calculated for each grid cell, allowing results to be summarized for a variety of planning units including hillslopes, watersheds, ecoregions, or political boundaries. Conclusions The ability to confidently calculate hydrologic outputs at fine spatial scales provides a new suite of hydrologic predictor variables that can be used for a variety of purposes, such as projections of changes in water availability, environmental demand, or distribution of plants and habitats. Here we present the framework of the CA-BCM model for the California hydrologic region, a test of model performance on 159 watersheds, summary results for the region for the 1981–2010 time period, and changes since the 1951–1980 time period.

California↗

USGS2014

Assessing the solubility controls on vanadium in groundwater, northeastern San Joaquin Valley, CA

The solubility controls on vanadium (V) in groundwater were studied due to concerns over possible harmful health effects of ingesting V in drinking water. Vanadium concentrations in the northeastern San Joaquin Valley ranged from <3 μg/L to 70 μg/L with a median of 21 μg/L. Concentrations of V were highest in samples collected from oxic groundwater (49% > 25 μg/L) and lowest in samples collected from anoxic groundwater (70% < 0.8 μg/L). In oxic groundwater, speciation modeling (SM) using PHREEQC predicted that V exists primarily as the oxyanion H 2 VO 4 − . Adsorption/desorption reactions with mineral surfaces and associated oxide coatings were indicated as the primary solubility control of V 5+ oxyanions in groundwater. Environmental data showed that V concentrations in oxic groundwater generally increased with increasing groundwater pH. However, data from adsorption isotherm experiments indicated that small variations in pH (7.4–8.2) were not likely as an important a factor as the inherent adsorption capacity of oxide assemblages coating the surface of mineral grains. In suboxic groundwater, accurate SM modeling was difficult since Eh measurements of source water were not measured in this study. Vanadium concentrations in suboxic groundwater decreased with increasing pH indicating that V may exist as an oxycationic species [e.g. V(OH) 3 + ]. Vanadium may complex with dissolved inorganic and organic ligands under suboxic conditions, which could alter the adsorption behavior of V in groundwater. Speciation modeling did not predict the existence of V-inorganic ligand complexes and organic ligands were not collected as part of this study. More work is needed to determine processes governing V solubility under suboxic groundwater conditions. Under anoxic groundwater conditions, SM predicts that aqueous V exists as the uncharged V(OH) 3 molecule. However, exceedingly low V concentrations show that V is sparingly soluble in anoxic conditions. Results indicated that V may be precipitating as V 3+ - or mixed V 3+ /Fe 3+ -oxides in anoxic groundwater, which is consistent with results of a previous study. The fact that V appears insoluble in anoxic (Fe reducing) redox conditions indicates that the behavior of V is different than arsenic (As) in aquifer systems where the reductive dissolution of Fe-oxides with As adsorbed to the surface is a well-documented mechanism for increasing As concentrations in groundwater. This hypothesis is supported by the relation of V to As concentrations in oxic versus anoxic redox conditions. Sequential extraction procedures (SEP) applied to aquifer material showed that the greatest amount of V was recovered by the nitric acid (HNO 3 ) extract (37–71%), followed by the oxalate-ascorbic acid extract (19–60%) and the oxalate extract (3–14%). These results indicate that V was not associated with the solid phase as an easily exchangeable fraction. Although the total amount of V recovered was greatest for the HNO 3 extract that targets V adsorbed to sorption sites of crystalline Al, Fe and Mn oxides, the greatest V saturation of sorption sites appeared to occur on the amorphous and poorly crystalline oxide solid phases targeted by the oxalate and oxalate-ascorbic acid extracts respectively. Adsorption isotherm experiments showed no correlation between V sorption and any of the fractions identified by the SEP. This lack of correlation indicates the application of an SEP alone is not adequate to estimate the sorption characteristics of V in an aquifer system.

California↗

USGS2001

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2024

Assessing grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) occupancy and detection probability within Lake Erie from environmental DNA

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), an invasive cyprinid within the Laurentian Great Lakes, is naturally reproducing in several Lake Erie tributaries, which has raised concerns of the species’ spread throughout Lake Erie and the other Great Lakes. Knowledge of the recent invasion extent outside of the western basin of Lake Erie, particularly in eastern tributaries and nearshore waters, is limited. Understanding the invasion extent would improve the efficacy of ongoing coordinated multi-agency control efforts. Molecular tools, such as environmental DNA (eDNA), have shown promise for early detection of aquatic invasive species. In this study, water samples (N = 476) were collected for grass carp eDNA monthly between May and November in 2018 and 2019, at three sites in the Michigan waters of Lake Erie and the Detroit River. We fit Bayesian multi-scale occupancy models to determine differences in eDNA capture and detection probability among grass carp qPCR assays, sampling sites, and across time. To determine whether grass carp were physically present, and to validate eDNA samples, we quantified recent grass carp presence in sampled areas using an existing acoustic telemetry and field sampling framework. Our results indicate that grass carp eDNA capture probability differed among sites, but there was no difference among months. Positive grass carp eDNA detections were observed across multiple months at each site, with 69% of site-specific sampling events testing positive for grass carp eDNA on at least one assay and replicate. The majority (65%) of weeks where positive eDNA sampling detections occurred also concurrently had one or more grass carp detected via acoustic telemetry 1–6 days prior. Our results highlight the potential utility of using eDNA to monitor the invasion extent of grass carp within the nearshore waters of Lake Erie. However, further evaluation of the factors that influence grass carp eDNA characteristics among sites within Lake Erie are needed to determine its efficacy for surveillance protocols by natural resource management agencies.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2018

Using research networks to create the comprehensive datasets needed to assess nutrient availability as a key determinant of terrestrial carbon cycling

A wide range of research shows that nutrient availability strongly influences terrestrial carbon (C) cycling and shapes ecosystem responses to environmental changes and hence terrestrial feedbacks to climate. Nonetheless, our understanding of nutrient controls remains far from complete and poorly quantified, at least partly due to a lack of informative, comparable, and accessible datasets at regional-to-global scales. A growing research infrastructure of multi-site networks are providing valuable data on C fluxes and stocks and are monitoring their responses to global environmental change and measuring responses to experimental treatments. These networks thus provide an opportunity for improving our understanding of C-nutrient cycle interactions and our ability to model them. However, coherent information on how nutrient cycling interacts with observed C cycle patterns is still generally lacking. Here, we argue that complementing available C-cycle measurements from monitoring and experimental sites with data characterizing nutrient availability will greatly enhance their power and will improve our capacity to forecast future trajectories of terrestrial C cycling and climate. Therefore, we propose a set of complementary measurements that are relatively easy to conduct routinely at any site or experiment and that, in combination with C cycle observations, can provide a robust characterization of the effects of nutrient availability across sites. In addition, we discuss the power of different observable variables for informing the formulation of models and constraining their predictions. Most widely available measurements of nutrient availability often do not align well with current modelling needs. This highlights the importance to foster the interaction between the empirical and modelling communities for setting future research priorities.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS1994

Accuracy, reproducibility, and interpretation of fatty acid methyl ester profiles of model bacterial communities

We determined the accuracy and reproducibility of whole-community fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis with two model bacterial communities differing in composition by using the Microbial ID, Inc. (MIDI), system. The biomass, taxonomic structure, and expected MIDI-FAME profiles under a variety of environmental conditions were known for these model communities a priori. Not all members of each community could be detected in the composite profile because of lack of fatty acid 'signatures' in some isolates or because of variations (approximately fivefold) in fatty acid yield across taxa. MIDI- FAME profiles of replicate subsamples of a given community were similar in terms of fatty acid yield per unit of community dry weight and relative proportions of specific fatty acids. Principal-components analysis (PCA) of MIDI-FAME profiles resulted in a clear separation of the two different communities and a clustering of replicates of each community from two separate experiments on the first PCA axis. The first PCA axis accounted for 57.1% of the variance in the data and was correlated with fatty acids that varied significantly between communities and reflected the underlying community taxonomic structure. On the basis of our data, community fatty acid profiles can be used to assess the relative similarities and differences of microbial communities that differ in taxonomic composition. However, detailed interpretation of community fatty acid profiles in terms of biomass or community taxonomic composition must be viewed with caution until our knowledge of the quantitative and qualitative distribution of fatty acids over a wide variety of taxa and the effects of growth conditions on fatty acid profiles is more extensive.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2014

Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

Kansas River, Missouri River↗

USGS2024

Exploring and integrating differences in niche characteristics across regional and global scales to better understand plant invasions in Hawaiʻi

The spread of ecosystem modifying invasive plant (EMIP) species is one of the largest threats to native ecosystems in Hawaiʻi. However, differences in niche characteristics between Hawaiʻi’s isolated insular environment and the wider global distribution of these species have not been carefully examined. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to assess similarities and differences in niche characteristics between global and regional scales for 17 EMIPs present in Hawaiʻi. With a clearer understanding of the global context of regional plant invasion, we combined two SDM methods to better understand the potential future regional spread: (1) a nested modeling approach to integrate global and regional invasive species distribution projections; and (2) integrating all available agency and citizen science data to minimize the effect of monitoring gaps and biases. Our results show there are multiple similarities in niche characteristics across regional and global scales for most species, such as similar sets of climatic determinants of distribution, similar responses along environmental gradients, and moderate to high niche overlap between global and regional models. However, some differences were apparent and likely due to several factors including incomplete regional spread, community assembly or diversity effects. Invaders that established earlier showed a higher degree of niche overlap and similar environmental gradient responses when comparing global and regional models. This pattern, coupled with the tendency for regionally-based projections to predict narrower distributions than global projections, indicates a potential for continued spread of several invasive species across the Hawaiian landscape. Our study has broader implications for understanding the distribution and spread of invasive species in other regions, as similar analyses and models, including a novel way to characterize environmental gradient response differences across regions or scales, can likely provide valuable information for conservation and management efforts.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

A metapopulation model of social group dynamics and disease applied to Yellowstone wolves

The population structure of social species has important consequences for both their demography and transmission of their pathogens. We develop a metapopulation model that tracks two key components of a species’ social system: average group size and number of groups within a population. While the model is general, we parameterize it to mimic the dynamics of the Yellowstone wolf population and two associated pathogens: sarcoptic mange and canine distemper. In the initial absence of disease, we show that group size is mainly determined by the birth and death rates and the rates at which groups fission to form new groups. The total number of groups is determined by rates of fission and fusion, as well as environmental resources and rates of intergroup aggression. Incorporating pathogens into the models reduces the size of the host population, predominantly by reducing the number of social groups. Average group size responds in more subtle ways: infected groups decrease in size, but uninfected groups may increase when disease reduces the number of groups and thereby reduces intraspecific aggression. Our modeling approach allows for easy calculation of prevalence at multiple scales (within group, across groups, and population level), illustrating that aggregate population-level prevalence can be misleading for group-living species. The model structure is general, can be applied to other social species, and allows for a dynamic assessment of how pathogens can affect social structure and vice versa.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS1998

Pesticides and nitrate in surficial sand and gravel aquifers as related to modeled contamination susceptibility in part of the Upper Mississippi River Basin

The occurrence of pesticides and nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen) in surficial sand and gravel aquifers in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin was summarized as part of an analysis of historical water-quality data for the Upper Mississippi River Basin study unit of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Water samples were collected by State and Federal agencies for pesticides (366) and nitrate (410) between 1971 and 1994 from wells completed in surficial sand and gravel aquifers. State agencies in Minnesota and Wisconsin have developed models to determine areas where ground water is susceptible to contamination based on geologic and hydrologic conditions (Schmidt, 1987, and Porcher, 1989). Water-quality data is evaluated with respect to the ground-water susceptibility models. The results also are evaluated with respect to overlying land use and land cover. Samples from wells with detectable levels of one or more pesticides or nitrate concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) generally coincided with areas of high contamination susceptibility. Furthermore, samples from wells located in areas of high contamination susceptibility had pesticide detection frequencies and nitrate concentrations that correlated to overlying land use and land cover. Samples from wells located in high susceptibility areas that were surrounded by cropland had greater pesticide detection frequencies and greater nitrate concentrations than wells located in similar susceptibility areas but surrounded by different land use and land cover types such as forest, urban, and wetlands.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Assessment of water quality and discharge in the Herring River, Wellfleet, Massachusetts, November 2015 to September 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, Cape Cod National Seashore of the National Park Service, and Friends of Herring River cooperated from 2015 to 2017 to assess nutrient concentrations and fluxes across the ocean-estuary boundary at a dike on the Herring River in Wellfleet, Massachusetts. The purpose of this assessment was to characterize environmental conditions prior to a future removal of the dike, which has restricted saltwater inputs into the Herring River watershed for more than 100 years. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance were monitored continuously, and flow-weighted composite samples were collected approximately twice per month at the ocean-estuary boundary. Bidirectional discharge was computed for the U.S. Geological Survey Herring River at Chequessett Neck Road at Wellfleet, Massachusetts, streamgage (011058798) by using a stage-area rating and index-velocity ratings developed with acoustic Doppler current profile measurements made upstream and downstream from the dike. LOADEST regression modeling software was used to estimate nutrient fluxes (loads) from composite, paired nutrient concentration and discharge data in conjunction with continuous discharge data. Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance were also monitored continuously on two tributaries to the Herring River, Pole Dike Creek and Bound Brook, from late-May 2016 to mid-June 2017. Composite or discrete water samples were collected from the tributaries approximately twice per month in most months from late-May 2016 to mid-June 2017 and analyzed for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon. Flow-weighted concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and total nitrogen on the Herring River at the dike on the ebb tide generally varied between 0.01 and 0.1, 0.003 and 0.03, and 0.3 and 0.7 milligram per liter as nitrogen, respectively. Flow-weighted concentrations of orthophosphate, total dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus generally varied between 0.002 and 0.02, 0.003 and 0.06, and 0.03 and 0.1 milligram per liter as phosphorus, respectively, on the ebb tide. Flow-weighted concentrations of silicate and dissolved organic carbon on the ebb tide generally varied between 0.08 and 3.0 milligrams per liter of silica (silicon dioxide), and 1.7 and 5.6 milligrams per liter of carbon, respectively. Ebb tide concentrations of nitrate were highest in winter and lowest in summer. By contrast, ebb tide concentrations of phosphorus species were highest in late summer and early fall and lowest in winter. Silica and dissolved organic carbon did not exhibit systematic variation in seasonal concentrations. There was uncertainty in estimates of nutrient fluxes, but the LOADEST-estimated fluxes indicated that annual (and in almost all cases seasonal) exports (ebb tides) exceeded inputs (flood tides). Ebb tide concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, total nitrogen, and silica were positively correlated with antecedent cumulative 7-day precipitation.

Massachusetts↗

USGS1995

Water-quality characteristics of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay at the Fall Line, Virginia, July 1988 through June 1993

Development in the Chesapeake Bay region has adversely affected the water quality of the Bay. The general degradation in the Bay has resulted in the decline of commercial fishing industries and has reduced the area of aquatic vegetation that provides food and habitat for fish and shellfish. In order to assess the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing the effects of excess nutrients and suspended solids on Chesapeake Bay, it is necessary to quantify the loads of these constituents into the Bay, and to evaluate the trends in water quality. This report presents the results of a study funded by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Programs and the U.S. Geological Survey, to monitor and estimate loads of selected nutrients and suspended solids discharged to Chesapeake Bay from five major tributaries in Virginia. The water-quality data and load estimates provided in this report also will be used to calibrate computer models of Chesapeake Bay. Water-quality constituents were monitored in the James and Rappahannock Rivers over a 5-year period, and in the Pamunkey, Appomattox, and Mattaponi Rivers over a 4-year period. Water-quality samples were collected from July 1, 1988 through June 30, 1993, for the James and Rappahannock Rivers; from July 1, 1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Pamunkey and Appomattox Rivers; and from September 1,1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Mattaponi River. Water-quality samples were collected on a scheduled basis and during stormflow to cover a range in discharge conditions. Monitore water-quality constituents, for which loads were estimated include total suspended solids (residue, total at 105° Celsius), dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica. Organic nitrogen concentrations were calculated from measurements of ammonia and total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and organic nitrogen loads were estimated using these calculations. Other selected water-quality constituents were monitored for which loads were not calculated. Daily mean load estimates of each constituent were computed by use of a seven-parameter log-linear regression model that uses variables of time, discharge, and seasonality. Concentration of total nitrogen ranged from less than 0.14 to 3.41 mg/L (milligrams per liter), with both extreme values occurring at the Rappahannock River. Concentration of total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from less than 0.1 mg/L in the James, Rappahannock, and Appomattox Rivers to 3.0 mg/L in the James River. Organic nitrogen was the predominant form of nitrogen at all stations except the Rappahannock River, where nitrite plus-nitrate nitrogen was predominant, and organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the measured total Kjeldahl nitrogen at all stations, ranging from 0.01 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 2.86 mg/L in the James River. Concentration of dissolved ammonia nitrogen ranged from 0.01 mg/L in the Pamunkey River to 0.54 mg/L at the James River. Concentration of nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen ranged from 0.02 to 1.05 mg/L in the James River. Concentrations of total phosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in the Rappahannock and the Mattaponi Rivers to 1.4 mg/L in the James River. Dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in all five rivers to 0.51 mg/L in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a concentration of less than 1 mg/L in all five rivers to 844 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Total organic carbon ranged from 1.1 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 110 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Dissolved silica ranged from 2.4 mg/L in the James River to 18 mg/L in the Appomattox River. The James and Rappahannock Rivers had high median concentrations and large ranges in concentrations for most constituents, probably because of a greater number of point and nonpoint sources of nutrients and suspended solids, and differences in land use when compared with the other basins. A significantly higher median concentration and greater range of dissolved orthophosphorus generally occurred at the James River than in all other rivers, which primarily is due to the greater number of point sources, such as municipal waste-water treatment plants. The Rappahannock River had significantly higher median concentrations and greater ranges of dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen and total nitrogen than other rivers, probably derived from agricultural sources. Total organic carbon was highest in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey River Basins that contain expanses of wetlands. The Appomattox River had the highest concentration of dissolved silica. The median monthly load of total nitrogen ranged from 16,500 kg (kilogram) in the Mattaponi River to 371,000 kg in the James River. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 12,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 205,500 kg, also in the James River. Organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the total Kjeldahl nitrogen load in all five rivers, ranging from a median monthly load of 11,251 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,299,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved ammonia nitrogen was 1,130 kg in the Mattaponi River and was as much as 21,050 kg in the James River, whereas nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 4,065 kg in the Mattaponi River to 156,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of total phosphorus ranged from 1,670 kg in the Mattaponi River to 61,600 kg in the James River, whereas the median monthly load of dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from 350 kg in the Mattaponi River to 25,900 kg in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a median monthly load of 241,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 20,050,000 kg in the James River. Total organic carbon ranged from a median monthly load of 167,000 kg in the Mattaponi River to 2,100,000 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved silica ranged from 209,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,625,000 kg in the James River. In general, annual loads for complete years of data collection were greatest at the James River for all constituents, probably because of the much higher discharge, greater basin size, and higher rates of runoff. Yields, or computations of loads per square mile of basin area, were generally highest at the Rappahannock River for total suspended solids, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen, and total nitrogen. Dissolved orthophosphorus was the only constituent with a yield consistently greater at the James River. Yields of total phosphorus were highest for the James and Rappahannock River basins, whereas yields of dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica were similar for all five river basins. Quality-assurance analyses that compare the results of the Virginia Division of Consolidated Laboratory Services and the U.S. Geological Survey Laboratory indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the laboratories for several constituents. Differences between laboratories were found to be caused by differences in analytical reporting limits, differences in analytical technique, or a slight bias at both laboratories. Quality-assurance data were used to address analytical technique problems, and to qualify final concentrations and loads.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Integrating behavior and physiology into strategies for amphibian conservation

The amphibian decline crisis has been challenging to address because of the complexity of factors—and their multitude of interactive effects—that drive this global issue. Dissecting such complexity could benefit from strategies that integrate multiple disciplines and address the mechanistic underpinnings of population declines and extirpations. We examine how the disciplines of behavior and physiology could be used to develop conservation strategies for amphibians and identify eight research gaps that provide future directions for the emerging fields of conservation behavior and conservation physiology. We present two case studies on imperiled salamanders that show how studies of behavior and physiology may support amphibian conservation efforts. We found several applications of stress physiology to amphibian conservation, but long-term studies are needed to understand how stress ultimately affects individual fitness and population resilience. Additionally, multiple measures of physiological health are needed to provide a more holistic assessment of an individual’s overall condition. Previous behavioral and physiological studies have been instrumental for understanding how amphibians respond to habitat modification, pathogens and parasites, contaminants, and invasive species. Some behavior-based approaches to mitigating invasive species issues have been successful in short-term studies with individual species. However, widespread application of these tactics has not yet been integrated into conservation and management strategies for ecologically-similar species. A diversity of modeling approaches has enhanced understanding of how climate change may impact amphibian populations, but model predictions need empirical tests to provide conservation managers with workable approaches to multiple perturbations associated with global environmental change. We illustrate that behavior and physiology can have broad utility for amphibian conservation, but evidence is scant that such studies have actually been used to inform strategies for amphibian conservation and management.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS1998

Factors affecting Escherichia coli concentrations at Lake Erie public bathing beaches

The environmental and water-quality factors that affect concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water and sediment were investigated at three public bathing beachesEdgewater Park, Villa Angela, and Sims Parkin the Cleveland, Ohio metropolitan area. This study was done to aid in the determination of safe recreational use and to help water- resource managers assess more quickly and accurately the degradation of recreational water quality. Water and lake-bottom sediments were collected and ancillary environmental data were compiled for 41 days from May through September 1997. Water samples were analyzed for E. coli concentrations, suspended sediment concentrations, and turbidity. Lake- bottom sediment samples from the beach area were analyzed for E. coli concentrations and percent dry weight. Concentrations of E. coli were higher and more variable at Sims Park than at Villa Angela or Edgewater Park; concentrations were lowest at Edgewater Park. Time-series plots showed that short-term storage (less than one week) of E. coli in lake-bottom sediments may have occurred, although no evidence for long-term storage was found during the sampling period. E. coli concentrations in water were found to increase with increasing wave height, but the resuspension of E. coli from lake-bottom sediments by wave action could not be adequately assessed; higherwave heights were often associated with the discharge of sewage containing E. coli during or after a rainfall and wastewater-treatment plant overflow. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop models to predict recreational water quality at the in water. The related variables included turbidity, antecedent rainfall, antecedent weighted rainfall, volumes of wastewater-treatment plant overflows and metered outfalls (composed of storm-water runoff and combined-sewer overflows), a resuspension index, and wave heights. For the beaches in this study, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature, and the prswimmers were not included in the model because they were shown to be statistically unrelated to E. coli concentrations. From the several models developed, one model was chosen that accounted for 58 percent of the variability in E. coli concentrations. The chosen MLR model contained weighted categorical rainfall, beach-specific turbidity, wave height, and terms to correct for the different magnitudes of E. coli concentrations among the three beaches. For 1997, the MLR model predicted the recreational water quality as well as, and in some cases better than, antecedent E. coli concentrations (the current method). The MLR model improved the sensitivity of the prediction and the percentage of correct predictions over the current method; however, the MLR model predictions still erred to a similar degree as the current method with regard to false negatives. A false negative would allow swimming when, in fact, the bathing water standard was exceeded. More work needs to be done to validate the MLR model with data collected during other recreational seasons, especially during a season with a greater frequency and intensity of summer rains. Studies could focus on adding to the MLR model other environmental and water-quality variables that improve the predictive ability of the model. These variables might include concentrations of E. coli in deeper sediments outside the bathing area, the direction of lake currents, site-specific-rainfall amounts, time-of-day information on overflows and metered outfalls, concentrations of E. coli in treated wastewater-treatment plant effluents, and occurrences of sewage-line breaks. Rapid biological or chemical methods for determination of recreational water quality could also be used as variables in model refinements. Possible methods include the use of experimental rapid assay methods for determination of E. coli concentrations or other fecal indicators and the use of chemical tracers for fecal contamination, such as coprostanol (a degradation

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗