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A regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range

Identifying habitat needs for species with large distributions is challenging because species-habitat associations may vary across scales and regions (spatial nonstationarity). Furthermore, management efforts often cross jurisdictional boundaries, complicating the development of cohesive conservation strategies among management entities. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a rapidly declining species that spans 11 U.S. states and responds to habitat conditions across a wide range of spatial scales and regions. Allowing for regional variance in species-habitat associations and suitability predictions could systematically identify important habitats at levels relevant to management. We collaboratively developed a model with Bureau of Land Management (BLM) biologists that: (1) evaluated the scale of effect for different environmental covariates; (2) accounted for regional differences in population-level responses; and (3) predicted probabilities of persistence across the U.S. occupied range. We modeled range-wide lek persistence data (6615 communal breeding sites classified as active or inactive) as a function of environmental covariates. Environmental covariates included sagebrush cover, pinyon-juniper cover, topography, precipitation, point and line disturbance densities, and landscape configuration metrics. Our model treated habitat assessment areas – regionally delineated by BLM biologists – as random intercepts and slopes that allowed for geographic variation in species-habitat associations and predicted probabilities of lek persistence. Our final model indicated support for 12 environmental covariates predicting lek persistence at scales extending between 1- to 15-km radii from lek centers, and a covariate measuring distance to the occupied range boundary. Five of these covariates showed significant regionally varying responses: sagebrush clumpiness (a measure of habitat aggregation), pinyon-juniper cover, point disturbance of anthropogenic features such as energy infrastructure and communication towers, elevation, and a topographic index associated with mesic habitats. This spatial nonstationarity indicates unitary range-wide recommendations, or rules-of-thumb with respect to their effects on lek persistence, may be problematic for these environmental conditions. For covariates that did not include random slopes, and which were potentially amenable to management actions, we found that leks were predicted to become extirpated when sagebrush cover fell below 9.6 % (summarized at the 3.2-km radius extent), and the proportion of classified sagebrush habitat fell below 0.7 (1-km). We produced a continuous predictive probability surface of lek persistence which we binned based on model sensitivity thresholds to produce habitat quality categories. The highest quality habitat (capturing 50 % of active leks) covered 25.5 % of the occupied range, while the combined lowest through highest quality habitats (capturing 95 % of active leks) covered 65.0 %. Accommodating regional environmental differences in models that are relevant to habitat management planning will help ensure their applicability to targeted goals. Continuous collaboration between modelers and land managers early in the modeling process increases the likelihood of this outcome.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding of waterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowl populations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Wildfowl↗

Moving environmental DNA methods from concept to practice for monitoring aquatic macroorganisms

The discovery that macroorganisms can be detected from their environmental DNA (eDNA) in aquatic systems has immense potential for the conservation of biological diversity. This special issue contains 11 papers that review and advance the field of eDNA detection of vertebrates and other macroorganisms, including studies of eDNA production, transport, and degradation; sample collection and processing to maximize detection rates; and applications of eDNA for conservation using citizen scientists. This body of work is an important contribution to the ongoing efforts to take eDNA detection of macroorganisms from technical breakthrough to established, reliable method that can be used in survey, monitoring, and research applications worldwide. While the rapid advances in this field are remarkable, important challenges remain, including consensus on best practices for collection and analysis, understanding of eDNA diffusion and transport, and avoidance of inhibition in sample collection and processing. Nonetheless, as demonstrated in this special issue, eDNA techniques for research and monitoring are beginning to realize their potential for contributing to the conservation of biodiversity globally.

Biological Conservation↗

Geographical Overview of the Three Gorges Dam and Reservoir, China - Geologic Hazards and Environmental Impacts

The Three Gorges Dam and Reservoir on the Yangtze River, China, has been an ambitious and controversial project. The dam, the largest in the world as of 2008, will provide hydropower, help to manage flood conditions, and increase the navigability of the Yangtze River. However, this massive project has displaced human and animal populations and altered the stability of the banks of the Yangtze, and it may intensify the seismic hazard of the area. It has also hindered archeological investigations in the reservoir and dam area. This report, originally in the form of a Microsoft PowerPoint presentation, gives a short history and overview of the dam construction and subsequent consequences, especially geologic hazards already noted or possible in the future. The report provides photographs, diagrams, and references for the reader's further research - a necessity, because this great undertaking is dynamic, and both its problems and successes continue to evolve. The challenges and consequences of Three Gorges Dam will be closely watched and documented as lessons learned and applied to future projects in China and elsewhere.

Open-File Report↗

Component identification of solid biomass fuels using reflected light microscopy: Interlaboratory study 2

As nations transition toward sustainable energy systems , biomass has become a vital component of global energy portfolios. Derived from organic materials such as wood, agricultural residues, forestry byproducts, and organic waste, biomass is a renewable energy source with significant environmental and economic benefits. Responsible biomass energy production can improve waste management, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and mitigate environmental pollution. However, as the diversity of biomass-derived fuels increases, robust quality assessment methods are essential to ensure their efficiency, safety, and minimal environmental impact. Reflected light microscopy (RLM) is one such technique with the potential to complement conventional physico-chemical analyses by enabling a rapid identification of material constituents and impurities. To refine this methodology and evaluate the reproducibility of solid biomass component identification using RLM, an interlaboratory study (ILS) was conducted. The study involved the recognition of 58 components across 45 photomicrographs, with the participation of 65 scientists and students from 25 countries. The participants faced high difficulty identifying some of the marked components, and as a result, the percentage of correct answers ranged from 19.0 % to 98.3 %, with an average correct identification rate of 62.7 %. The most challenging aspects of the identification process included distinguishing between woody and non-woody (agro) biomass, accurately identifying petroleum-derived materials, and differentiating agro biomass from inorganic matter. The results suggest that while RLM is an important tool for characterizing solid biomass, further development of methodology guidelines and training are necessary to enhance its effectiveness. Future research should prioritize preparing detailed, image-rich, microscopic morphological descriptions of biomass fuel components, which could improve the accuracy and reliability of using RLM in biomass fuel characterization.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific Coast

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26 and 14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we identify climatically favorable intervals when humans could have plausibly traversed the Cordilleran coastal corridor during the terminal Pleistocene. Model simulations suggest that northward coastal currents strengthened during the LGM and at times of enhanced freshwater input, making southward transit by boat more difficult. Repeated Cordilleran glacial-calving events would have further challenged coastal transit on land and at sea. Following these events, ice-free coastal areas opened and seasonal sea ice was present along the Alaskan margin until at least 15 ka. Given evidence for humans south of the ice sheets by 16 ka and possibly earlier, we posit that early people may have taken advantage of winter sea ice that connected islands and coastal refugia. Marine ice-edge habitats offer a rich food supply and traversing coastal sea ice could have mitigated the difficulty of traveling southward in watercraft or on land over glaciers. We identify 24.5 to 22 ka and 16.4 to 14.8 ka as environmentally favorable time periods for coastal migration, when climate conditions provided both winter sea ice and ice-free summer conditions that facilitated year-round marine resource diversity and multiple modes of mobility along the North Pacific coast.

Pacific Coast↗

United States Geological Survey Yearbook, fiscal year 1977

Fiscal 1977 marked the 98th year the U.S. Geological Survey has endeavored in the unceasing task of providing information about the Earth and its physical resources, and regulating the activities of lessees engaged in extracting petroleum and other minerals from the public domain. The past year also marked the beginning of a third and challenging mission, drawing upon the Survey's scientific talents, to explore and assess the petroleum potential of a vast 37,000 square miles expanse of Alaska's North Slope known as the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. The first two missions require detailed and continuing investigations of the location, character, and extent of the Nation's land, water, mineral, and energy resources; a continuing National Topographic Mapping Program; the classification of Federal lands for mineral and waterpower potential; and a continuing program of technical review, safety inspection and royalty auditing of the operations of private parties engaged in mineral development on Federal lands to assure standards of safety, environmental protection, resource conservation, and a fair market return to the public for the development of their resources.

Yearbook↗

Geothermal systems of the Great Basin and U.S. Geological Survey plans for a regional resource assessment

Based on current projections, the United States faces the need to increase its electrical power generating capacity by 40% (approximately 300,000 Megawatts-electrical or MWe) over the next 20 years (Energy Information Administration, EIA - Department of Energy). A critical question for the near future is the extent to which geothermal resources can contribute to this increasing demand for electricity. Geothermal energy constitutes one of the nation's largest sources of renewable and environmentally benign electrical power, yet the installed capacity of 2860 MWe falls far short of estimated geothermal resources. This is particularly true for the Great Basin region of the western United States, which has an installed capacity of about 500 MWe, much lower than the 7500 MWe resource estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the late 1970s. The reasons for the limited development of geothermal power are varied, but political, economic and technological developments suggest the time is ripe for a new assessment effort. Technologies for power production from geothermal systems and scientific understanding of geothermal resource occurrence have improved dramatically in recent years. The primary challenges facing geothermal resource studies are (1) understanding the thermal, chemical and mechanical processes that lead to the colocation of high temperatures and high permeabilities necessary for the formation of geothermal systems and (2) developing improved techniques for locating, characterizing and exploiting these systems. Starting in the fall of 2002, the USGS will begin work with institutions funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Research Program to investigate the nature and extent of geothermal systems in the Great Basin and to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources.

Conference Paper↗

Managed aquifer recharge in snow-fed river basins: What, why and how?

What does climate change mean for snow-fed river basins? Climate change poses unique challenges in snow-fed river basins across the western United States because the majority of water supply originates as snow (Dettinger, Udall, & Georgakakos, 2015). In the Sierra Nevada, recent observations include changes in snow accumulation and snowmelt, and shifts in peak streamflow timing (Barnhart et al., 2016; Hatchett et al., 2017; Kim & Jain, 2010; McCabe, Wolock, & Valentin, 2018; Mote, Li, Lettenmaier, Xiao, & Engel, 2018). Such changes upstream alter surface water deliveries downstream, as well as groundwater recharge utilized as both primary and supplemental water supply (Godsey et al., 2014; Harpold, 2016; Jasechko et al., 2014). basin where snowmelt runoff produces substantial water supply to meet diverse agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the Carson Valley, a rich agricultural region (40,000 acres) that grows primarily alfalfa hay. The majority of irrigators rely on surface water delivered through a network of earthen ditches constructed in the mid-19th and early 20th centuries. Flow through these earthen networks and the practice of flood irrigation contribute significantly to groundwater recharge. Because no upstream surface water reservoirs exist, snowpack that accumulates through winter and melts slowly through spring has acted as a “natural” reservoir, providing ample supply through the summer irrigati agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the season. Some irrigators have permitted access to supplemental groundwater that is useful during periods of drought for augmenting shortfalls in surface water delivery. Groundwater is the primary source of municipal and industrial water supply for surrounding communities (e.g., Carson City, Minden, Gardnerville, Dayton). Across the basin, water use is highly regulated through federal, tribal, state and local water-sharing agreements based on prior appropriation doctrine (Wilds, 2014). Carson River surface water allocations follow the Alpine Decree, initiated by the United States Department of Interior in 1925 and signed into law in 1980, following 55 years of litigation, to adjudicate surface water rights to individual parties (NDWP, 1999). The Alpine Decree acknowledges return flows to lower river segments, and thus each river segment is distributed autonomously. This means that the most junior water right on an upper segment can be fulfilled before considering the most senior water right on a lower segment. Ultimately, the ruling is at the discretion of the Federal Water Master to satisfy the needs of each water right Downstream of Carson Valley, surface water flows are stored in Lahontan Reservoir, the nation’s first desert reclamation project (est. 1906), where releases are managed to meet the Newland’s Project irrigation water demand and for environmental use on the Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Flows from the Carson River are supplemented through diversions from the Truckee River via the Truckee Canal, resulting in a trans-basin water supply system. How is the Water for the Seasons research program informing snow-fed river basin communities? In the Truckee-Carson River System, researchers and local water managers are working together to assess climate change impacts to water supply and explore how model simulations can produce useful information to support local climate adaptation. Twelve key water managers represent agricultural, environmental, urban and regulatory water-use communities, and bring to the table diverse input and perspectives on how to adapt to climate change. Hydrologists use this input to craft scenarios and simulations that meet the information needs of local water managers. Biannual workshops provide an opportunity for information exchange, where researchers and key water managers generate new knowledge of river system function. That is, researchers share results of models that examine the physical potential, and managers validate the on-the-ground potential, further informing the research process. Coincident to this research program, the region faced a prolonged drought period (2012-2016) with historically low snowpack, followed by a historic wet year (2017) that brought winter and spring flooding as a result of atmospheric river storm events (Sterle et al., 2019). For the Carson River, an important observation made by managers was that peak streamflow that had traditionally coincided with peak irrigation demands, had shifted to earlier in the spring, with summer baseflow also decreasing (Sterle & Singletary, 2017). Managers shared with researchers concerns over potential future impacts that changing snowpack will have on surface water deliveries and reliance on groundwater, as the region’s population and economy continue to grow. During workshops that occurred over this period, local water managers and researchers discussed ways to evaluate water distribution and use that honors the existing legal framework and accounts for changing snowpack regimes (amount, rain versus snow, timing). In response to managers growing interest, researchers introduced the concept of managed aquifer recharge as one potential strategy to adapt and enhance regional water sustainability. What is managed aquifer recharge? Simply stated, managed aquifer recharge is the intentional recharge of structures to spread water over agricultural lands, allowing water to naturally infiltrate into the groundwater system (Bouwer, 1999; Niswonger et al., 2017). The latter may occur during the irrigation season by applying excess water, or during the nonirrigation season when evapotranspiration losses are low. Figure 2 illustrates managed aquifer recharge in a snow-fed river basin, where streamflow generated from snowmelt runoff is diverted to agricultural lands to recharge the aquifer. Such flood irrigation practices, including water delivery through earthen ditch networks, provide incidental but significant aquifer recharge through seepage and deep drainage beneath fields (Niswonger, Allander, & Jeton, 2014). The effects of managed aquifer recharge can vary depending on the location and intensity of practice. For example, implementing managed aquifer recharge water into the groundwater system (Dillon, 2009). This differs from the incidental recharge that may occur as part of normal irrigation practices. Managed recharge may occur by injection into the aquifer through existingwells, or by using existing conveyance adjacent to/along the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance late-season instream flows due to increased return flows, resulting in greater downstream deliveries as well as improving ecological conditions (Niswonger et al., 2017). Implementing managed aquifer recharge away from the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance groundwater supply which is increasingly relied upon during surface water shortage (Green et al., 2011), by storing water in available aquifer space in the deep aquifer. At the basin scale, managed aquifer recharge may lead to regional groundwater sustainability. Is the Carson River Basin a candidate for managed aquifer recharge? The physical limitations to implementing managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin hinges on three key factors. The first factor relates to the physical connectivity between rivers and streams, and the irrigation delivery network of canals and ditches that divert water to agricultural lands (Niswonger et al., 2017). In the Carson River Basin the mechanisms for getting water to fields is already in place. Thus, intentionally routing high flows that occur in wet years through this system during the nonirrigation season would mimic what occurs naturally during the irrigation season. The second factor relates to the occurrence of atmospheric river storm events that deliver large amounts of precipitation to the region, much greater than average (Dettinger et al., 2015). With increased frequency and intensity projected under a warmer climate, such events have the potential to produce excess water over short periods of time that could be stored through mechanisms such as managed aquifer recharge (Niswonger et al., 2017). The third factor relates to the change in snowpack accumulation and shifts in snowmelt timing observed elsewhere in the Sierra Nevada (e.g., Godsey et al., 2014; Mote et al., 2018). Having a mechanism in place to maximize use of earlier snowmelt and shifts in streamflow timing could be advantageous and enhance regional groundwater sustainability. As part of the Water for the Seasons study, a hypothetical scenario was developed to determine the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin, assuming no legal constraints. During “wet” or above-average water years, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley would divert high flows and spread water over agricultural lands during the nonirrigation season. Assuming flows are abundant and “early,” diversions would begin prior to the growing season, when water would otherwise flow downstream to the Lahontan Reservoir. During “dry” years or drought periods, when surface water availability is less, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley could augment surface water shortages with groundwater, allowing available surface water flows to flow downstream. Researchers hypothesize the amount of water has the potential to boost baseflow to support environmental instream flows, for example. What concerns have local water managers expressed? The hypothetical managed aquifer recharge scenario was presented to water managers in a workshop setting. Presentations included an overview of the hydrologic and operations modeling tools used to evaluate managed aquifer recharge by simulating the timing and distribution of water in the upper watershed. Specifically, in the Upper Carson Valley, a hydrologic model (GSFLOW) simulates streamflow driven by snowmelt, and surface and groundwater interactions, while a river basin operations model (MODSIM) allocates water according to the prior appropriation doctrine in the basin (see Figure 1) (Morway, Niswonger, & Triana, 2016; Niswonger et al., 2017). Integrating these two modeling tools advances the evaluation of climate impacts on water availability in agricultural communities and the resulting impacts of alternative management strategies (Morway et al., 2016). When asked about the viability of managed aquifer recharge, the perspectives of 11 managers varied (Figure 3). Regardless of rating, all managers questioned, “How would thisreally work?” Several managers questioned whether models could simulate the connectivity between surface and groundwater to accurately quantify changes to instream flow. Others raised concerns that managed aquifer recharge violates the Alpine Decree and Nevada Water Law. Still others requested researchers consider alternatives that could work within the confines of current (2019) water law. Managers posed specific questions that should be considered when evaluating the potential for managed aquifer recharge. For example: What triggers implementation of managed aquifer recharge?How “high” or “low” must annual flows be to initiate managed aquifer recharge? When in the water year is this determined? Where exactly in the Carson Valley is managed aquiferre charge possible? For example, what areas away from the floodplain could ensure long-term storage? Can model simulations quantify potential benefits and consequences system-wide?Would this information support decision-making, such as permitting of additional supplemental groundwater rights? How are researchers going to address managers’ research questions? Managers’ perspectives help to validate the on-the-ground potential of particular strategies and further refine alternative management scenarios. For example, understanding that managers are concerned with oversaturated fields helps researchers to define conditions in the model, such as what defines a wet versus “too” wet type of year and where to focus irrigation for managed aquifer recharge. Incorporating these nuances provides more accurate quantification of the potential benefits and consequences for users across the basin. Modeling is underway to simulate managed aquifer recharge scenarios and explore basin-wide implications. Researchers and local water managers will convene to collaboratively review results and further assess whether this or other strategies could work under the confines of existing water law. Subsequent fact sheets will present these findings.

Nevada↗

Technical note—Relative variability of selected turbidity standards and sensors in use by the U.S. Geological Survey

The challenges associated with field measurements of turbidity are well known and result primarily from differences in reported values that depend on instrument design and the resulting need for reporting units that are specific to those designs. A critical challenge for making comparable turbidity measurements is the selection and use of appropriate turbidity standards for sensor calibration. The accepted primary standards for turbidity measurements use formazin made from scratch; all others should relate back to readings obtained using standard formazin. However, because turbidity is a qualitative property of water, comparing standards is not as simple as it is for many chemical measurements. The U.S. Geological Survey “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” currently allows for the use of two standards, formazin and polymer beads, for the calibration of field turbidimeters. Another challenge for making comparable turbidity measurements is selection of turbidity sensors. A turbidity sensor commonly used in the U.S. Geological Survey, the Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI) 6136, has been replaced by the manufacturer with the YSI EXO turbidity sensor. Both sensors operate on the same principles but have slight design differences that result in readings that are not directly comparable on a 1:1 basis. Differences in calibration standards and sensors are a cause of concern in ongoing studies that require switching calibration standards or sensor types, and for comparisons of data collected with sensors calibrated by using different calibration standards, different sensor types, or both. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the response of two YSI turbidity sensors in both formazin-based standards (StablCal) and polymer turbidity standards (in this case YSI brand; however, other brands are available) and to compare the performance of the YSI EXO and YSI 6136 turbidity sensors under similar laboratory and environmental (field) conditions. To quantify these differences, a series of laboratory and field side-by-side comparisons were conducted. Nine field comparisons of YSI EXO and YSI 6136 sensors were performed at site locations in Kansas and Virginia. Two field comparisons of StablCal and polymer calibration standards were performed in Kansas, both using YSI EXO turbidity sensors. Five laboratory comparisons between the YSI EXO and YSI 6136 turbidity sensors were performed, and seven laboratory comparisons between StablCal and polymer turbidity standards were performed using YSI EXO turbidity sensors. The results can help the USGS and others better understand how turbidity data can differ depending on the sensors and calibration standards used. Key findings and conclusions include the following— Regardless of the comparison, strong linear associations were typically found across all measures of turbidity under field and laboratory conditions, but linear associations were not necessarily 1:1 and varied by type of standard, type of sensor, and field and laboratory conditions. The mean relative percentage differences for all but a few comparisons were greater than 10 percent but less than 30 percent. However, differences were inconsistent across the laboratory and field conditions measured in this study, precluding the ability to formulate definitive statements of consistent directional bias depending on the type of standard or sensor used. Across all tests and a range of 0 to 1,000 formazin nephelometric units (FNU), no consistent bias between the YSI EXO and YSI 6136 turbidity sensors was observed, but either regression relations were near 1:1 or the YSI EXO turbidity readings were lower than those measured with the YSI 6136. Relative percentage differences typically exceeded the 10- and 30-percent benchmarks. However, most (about 95 percent) of the absolute differences between turbidity values measured with the YSI EXO and those measured with the YSI 6136 sensors were less than 20 FNU. In laboratory experiments, when turbidity was “constant,” the absolute difference between YSI EXO and YSI 6136-measured turbidity values ranged from near 0 FNU to nearly 400 FNU (over a range of 0 to 1,000 FNU). Substantial variability in turbidity measurements makes comparison between standards and sensor types challenging. Given the inherent variability in turbidity measurements and the lack of consistent bias between calibration standards or sensors, changing methods during an ongoing study would compromise the comparability of the data. The effect of changing methods ultimately depends on study objectives. If method changes are required, laboratory- and field-based comparisons across a range of conditions ideally would be conducted to determine whether site-specific biases can be identified.

Open-File Report↗

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

The LTAR Grazing Land Common Experiment at the Jornada Experimental Range: Old genetics, new precision technologies, and adaptive value chains

Rangelands and the supply chains connected to them are central to the agrifood systems of the Southwestern United States. Local ranchers are simultaneously arid lands managers, herd managers, and marketing managers. To stay in business, they must constantly adapt to unpredictable forage resources and markets while conserving soils and vegetation resources for the long term. As climate warming and drying exacerbate the complexity and difficulty of day-to-day production, producers and policy-makers are seeking alternatives to “business as usual”. To meet this need, the LTAR-Jornada team has developed a package of strategies to help producers adapt to the local and inter-regional challenges. The package includes heritage cattle, precision ranching systems, and adaptive value chains. Five ranches across the Southwest have adopted different combinations of the strategies and are partnering to measure their benefits and drawbacks in real-world conditions. Opportunities for controlled experimentation differ among the ranches, so we use LTAR’s indicator system to assess and compare results. Even as we invest in co-producing knowledge about these three strategies, we recognize that progressive aridification and urbanization of Southwestern rangelands create challenges for which a single “silver bullet” agricultural innovation is unlikely to provide durable solutions. We are learning from our customers and stakeholders about ways to adjust the development of new options.

New Mexico↗

Comparison of seven protocols to identify fecal contamination sources using Escherichia coli

Microbial source tracking (MST) uses various approaches to classify fecal-indicator microorganisms to source hosts. Reproducibility, accuracy, and robustness of seven phenotypic and genotypic MST protocols were evaluated by use of Escherichia coli from an eight-host library of known-source isolates and a separate, blinded challenge library. In reproducibility tests, measuring each protocol's ability to reclassify blinded replicates, only one (pulsed-field gel electrophoresis; PFGE) correctly classified all test replicates to host species; three protocols classified 48-62% correctly, and the remaining three classified fewer than 25% correctly. In accuracy tests, measuring each protocol's ability to correctly classify new isolates, ribotyping with EcoRI and PvuII approached 100% correct classification but only 6% of isolates were classified; four of the other six protocols (antibiotic resistance analysis, PFGE, and two repetitive-element PCR protocols) achieved better than random accuracy rates when 30-100% of challenge isolates were classified. In robustness tests, measuring each protocol's ability to recognize isolates from nonlibrary hosts, three protocols correctly classified 33-100% of isolates as "unknown origin," whereas four protocols classified all isolates to a source category. A relevance test, summarizing interpretations for a hypothetical water sample containing 30 challenge isolates, indicated that false-positive classifications would hinder interpretations for most protocols. Study results indicate that more representation in known-source libraries and better classification accuracy would be needed before field application. Thorough reliability assessment of classification results is crucial before and during application of MST protocols.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Opportunities for businesses to use and support development of SEEA-aligned natural capital accounts

Global understanding of the interconnections between the environment and economy has increased, driving the development of frameworks and standards that support the measurement and valuation of natural capital and ecosystem services by both governments and businesses. This paper outlines how businesses can use natural capital accounts (NCA) aligned to the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) standard described in this special issue to support identification, management, and valuation of natural capital not typically listed on corporate balance sheets. Such accounts have direct applications for business strategic planning, investment decisions, supply chain management , operations management, risk management, and corporate reporting. Businesses also have important roles to play in advancing SEEA-aligned NCA by providing information that would be useful to include in the accounts and by helping to shape accounts to provide decision-relevant information for both the private and the public sectors. Current pilot SEEA-aligned NCA data and analyses developed for the United States can help address some of the common challenges that businesses face in using natural capital data such as accessibility, quality, and credibility, important for business decision making. However, improvements are needed to fill data gaps and produce more frequent and timely estimates aligned to the temporal resolution needed by businesses.

Ecosystem Services↗

Using the value of information to improve conservation decision making

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g., economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms ‘Value of Information,’ ‘Expected Value of Perfect Information,’ and the abbreviation ‘EVPI.’ Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that show an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.

Biological Reviews↗

INVASIVESNET towards an International Association for Open Knowledge on Invasive Alien Species

In a world where invasive alien species (IAS) are recognised as one of the major threats to biodiversity, leading scientists from five continents have come together to propose the concept of developing an international association for open knowledge and open data on IAS—termed “INVASIVESNET”. This new association will facilitate greater understanding and improved management of invasive alien species (IAS) and biological invasions globally, by developing a sustainable network of networks for effective knowledge exchange. In addition to their inclusion in the CBD Strategic Plan for Biodiversity, the increasing ecological, social, cultural and economic impacts associated with IAS have driven the development of multiple legal instruments and policies. This increases the need for greater co-ordination, co-operation, and information exchange among scientists, management, the community of practice and the public. INVASIVESNET will be formed by linking new and existing networks of interested stakeholders including international and national expert working groups and initiatives, individual scientists, database managers, thematic open access journals, environmental agencies, practitioners, managers, industry, non-government organisations, citizens and educational bodies. The association will develop technical tools and cyberinfrastructure for the collection, management and dissemination of data and information on IAS; create an effective communication platform for global stakeholders; and promote coordination and collaboration through international meetings, workshops, education, training and outreach. To date, the sustainability of many strategic national and international initiatives on IAS have unfortunately been hampered by time-limited grants or funding cycles. Recognising that IAS initiatives need to be globally coordinated and ongoing, we aim to develop a sustainable knowledge sharing association to connect the outputs of IAS research and to inform the consequential management and societal challenges arising from IAS introductions. INVASIVESNET will provide a dynamic and enduring network of networks to ensure the continuity of connections among the IAS community of practice, science and management.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

MiniSipper: A new in situ water sampler for high-resolution, long-duration acid mine drainage monitoring

Abandoned hard-rock mines can be a significant source of acid mine drainage (AMD) and toxic metal pollution to watersheds. In Colorado, USA, abandoned mines are often located in remote, high elevation areas that are snowbound for 7–8 months of the year. The difficulty in accessing these remote sites, especially during winter, creates challenging water sampling problems and major hydrologic and toxic metal loading events are often under sampled. Currently available automated water samplers are not well suited for sampling remote snowbound areas so the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a new water sampler, the MiniSipper, to provide long-duration, high-resolution water sampling in remote areas. The MiniSipper is a small, portable sampler that uses gas bubbles to separate up to 250 five milliliter acidified samples in a long tubing coil. The MiniSipper operates for over 8 months unattended in water under snow/ice, reduces field work costs, and greatly increases sampling resolution, especially during inaccessible times. MiniSippers were deployed in support of an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) project evaluating acid mine drainage inputs from the Pennsylvania Mine to the Snake River watershed in Summit County, CO, USA. MiniSipper metal results agree within 10% of EPA-USGS hand collected grab sample results. Our high-resolution results reveal very strong correlations (R 2 > 0.9) between potentially toxic metals (Cd, Cu, and Zn) and specific conductivity at the Pennsylvania Mine site. The large number of samples collected by the MiniSipper over the entire water year provides a detailed look at the effects of major hydrologic events such as snowmelt runoff and rainstorms on metal loading from the Pennsylvania Mine. MiniSipper results will help guide EPA sampling strategy and remediation efforts in the Snake River watershed.

Colorado↗