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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

Ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico: Drivers, impacts, and unknowns

Ocean acidification (OA) has resulted in global-scale changes in ocean chemistry, which can disturb marine organisms and ecosystems. Despite its extensively populated coastline, many marine-dependent communities, and valuable economies, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) remains a relatively understudied region with respect to acidification. In general, the warm waters of the GOM are better buffered from acidification compared to higher latitude seas, yet long-term acidification has been documented in several GOM regions. OA within the GOM is recognized as spatially variable, particularly within the coastal zone where numerous physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to carbonate chemistry dynamics. The historical progression of OA within the entire GOM is difficult to assess because only a few dedicated long-term monitoring sites have recently been established, and full-water column observations are limited. However, environmental drivers on smaller scales that affect GOM acidification were found to include freshwater, nutrient, and carbonate discharge from large rivers; ocean warming, circulation and residence times; and episodic extreme weather events. GOM marine ecosystems provide essential services, including coastline protection and carbon dioxide removal, and habitats for many marine species that are economically and ecologically important. However, organismal and ecosystem responses to OA are not well constrained for the GOM due to a lack of studies examining the specific effects of OA on regionally relevant species under contemporary and projected conditions. Tackling the vast number of remaining scientific unknowns in this region can be best coordinated through regional capacity networks, such as the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN), working to achieve a system-wide understanding of Gulf OA and its impacts. Here we synthesize the current peer-reviewed literature on GOM acidification across the ocean-estuarine continuum and identify critical knowledge, research, and monitoring gaps that require future attention.

Progress in Oceanography↗

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Co-producing knowledge: The Integrated Ecosystem Model for resource management in Arctic Alaska

Assessments of climate-change effects on ecosystem processes and services in high-latitude regions are hindered by a lack of decision-support tools capable of forecasting possible future landscapes. We describe a collaborative effort to develop and apply the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and northwestern Canada to explore how climate change influences interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost integrity, hydrology, and vegetation, and how these dynamics in turn influence resource management decisions. This process emphasizes co-production of knowledge among decision makers, scientists, major funders, partners, and stakeholders. We highlight research findings based on IEM applications in Arctic Alaska, as well as successes and challenges of the co-production process. The overall framework and lessons from our work with the IEM are relevant to other collaborative efforts outside the Arctic that aim to develop a decision-support tool or an undertaking of equivalent scope.

Alaska↗

Development and implementation of an empirical habitat change model and decision support tool for estuarine ecosystems

Widespread land use change in coastal ecosystems has led to a decline in the amount of habitat available for fish and wildlife, lower production of ecosystem goods and services, and loss of recreational and aesthetic value. This has prompted global efforts to restore the natural hydrologic regimes of developed shorelines, especially resource-rich estuaries, but the resilience of these restored ecosystems in the face of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) remains uncertain. We implemented a Mo nitoring-based S imulation of A ccretion i n C oastal E s tuaries (MOSAICS) in R statistical software to address uncertainty in the resilience of modified estuarine habitats, using the Nisqually River Delta in the Pacific Northwest USA as a case study. MOSAICS is a spatially explicit model with a numerical foundation that uses empirical monitoring datasets to forecast habitat change in response to rising tidal levels. Because it accounts for the crucial ecomorphodynamic feedbacks between tidal inundation, vegetative growth, and sediment accretion, MOSAICS can be used to determine whether alternative management scenarios, such as enhanced sediment inputs, will bolster estuarine resilience to SLR. Under moderate SLR (0.62 m), the model predicted that a two-fold increase in mean daily suspended sediment during the rainy season was sufficient to maintain Nisqually’s emergent marshes through 2100, but under high SLR (1.35 m) MOSAICS indicated that greater sediment additions would be necessary to prevent submergence. A comparison between a restored marsh with subsided and high-elevation areas and a relict marsh demonstrated that the subsided restoration area was highly susceptible to SLR. Findings from the MOSAICS model highlight the importance of a site’s initial elevation, capacity for producing above and belowground biomass, and suspended sediment availability when considering management actions in estuaries and other coastal ecosystems.

Washington↗

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society↗

Anthropogenic activities have greatly altered mangroves over the last hundred years

Mangroves not only provide ecosystem and cultural services but also contribute to the mitigation of global warming. Mangrove dynamics and their environmental responses as re-constructed from the past can inform current mangrove conservation and restoration. However, our understanding of mangrove dynamics over the past century and the impact of human activities on these ecosystems remains limited. Using the quantified mangrove-derived organic carbon (MOC) contributions of seven sediment cores, we reconstructed the historical mangrove dynamics in Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea in tropical China dating back to 1900. The results indicated that the natural undisturbed mangroves in Yingluo Bay flourished in response to rising temperatures. In contrast, the significantly human-disturbed mangroves in Maowei Sea experienced a marked decline. Although both areas share similar natural conditions, intense anthropogenic disturbance reversed the natural potential for mangrove growth in the Maowei Sea. To explore the global prevalence of this phenomenon, we compiled data on mangrove pollen, δ 13 C org , MOC, and mangrove area change from over 40 sites/regions worldwide, and re-constructed the natural and human-affected mangrove dynamics over the past century. Our findings indicated that, owing to the globally rising temperatures, natural undisturbed mangroves have gradually expanded as progressively more healthy forests, while human-disturbed mangroves exhibited three patterns: (1) continuous degradation, (2) flourishing-degradation, and (3) degradation-regeneration. Anthropogenic activities, such as seawall construction, aquaculture activity, agricultural expansion, logging, and urbanization have significantly reversed the natural health of mangroves such that any conservation and restoration strategy used for mangroves globally could inherently consider anthropogenic factors along with natural environmental change for better outcomes.

Global and Planetary Change↗

Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the region-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) How vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) What is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We developed simple freshwater availability-based models to predict the relative abundance (i.e., coverage) of tidal wetland foundation plant species using climate data (1970-2000), estuarine freshwater inflow-focused data, and coastal wetland habitat data. Our results identify regional ecological thresholds and nonlinear relationships between measures of freshwater availability and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands. In drier coastal zones, relatively small changes in rainfall could produce comparatively large landscape-scale changes in foundation plant species abundance which would affect some ecosystem good and services. Whereas a drier future would result in a decrease in the coverage of foundation plant species, a wetter future would result in an increase in foundation plant species coverage. In many ways, the freshwater-dependent coastal wetland ecological transitions we observed are analogous to those present in dryland terrestrial ecosystems.

Gulf Of Mexico↗

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Upper Colorado River Basin Climate Effects Network

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) Climate Effects Network (CEN) is a science team established to provide information to assist land managers in future decision making processes by providing a better understanding of how future climate change, land use, invasive species, altered fire cycles, human systems, and the interactions among these factors will affect ecosystems and the services they provide to human communities. The goals of this group are to (1) identify science needs and provide tools to assist land managers in addressing these needs, (2) provide a Web site where users can access information pertinent to this region, and (3) provide managers technical assistance when needed. Answers to the team's working science questions are intended to address how interactions among climate change, land use, and management practices may affect key aspects of water availability, ecosystem changes, and societal needs within the UCRB.

Fact Sheet↗

Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications

Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species’ phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and services upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribution. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species difficult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological “status”, or the ability to track presence–absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of intensity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi-taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.

International Journal of Biometeorology↗

Oyster reef restoration supports increased nekton biomass and potential commercial fishery value

Across the globe, discussions centered on the value of nature drive many conservation and restoration decisions. As a result, justification for management activities increasingly asks for two lines of evidence: (1) biological proof of augmented ecosystem function or service, and (2) monetary valuation of these services. For oyster reefs, which have seen significant global declines and increasing restoration work, the need to provide both biological and monetary evidence of reef services on a local-level has become more critical in a time of declining resources. Here, we quantified species biomass and potential commercial value of nekton collected from restored oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) reefs in coastal Louisiana over a 3-year period, providing multiple snapshots of biomass support over time. Overall, and with little change over time, fish and invertebrate biomass is 212% greater at restored oyster reefs than mud-bottom, or 0.12 kg m −2 . The additional biomass of commercial species is equivalent to an increase of local fisheries value by 226%, or $0.09 m −2 . Understanding the ecosystem value of restoration projects, and how they interact with regional management priorities, is critical to inform local decision-making and provide testable predictions. Quantitative estimates of potential commercial fisheries enhancement by oyster reef restoration such as this one can be used directly by local managers to determine the expected return on investment.

Louisiana↗

Ecosystem consequences of changing inputs of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to lakes: current knowledge and future challenges

Lake ecosystems and the services that they provide to people are profoundly influenced by dissolved organic matter derived from terrestrial plant tissues. These terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) inputs to lakes have changed substantially in recent decades, and will likely continue to change. In this paper, we first briefly review the substantial literature describing tDOM effects on lakes and ongoing changes in tDOM inputs. We then identify and provide examples of four major challenges which limit predictions about the implications of tDOM change for lakes, as follows: First, it is currently difficult to forecast future tDOM inputs for particular lakes or lake regions. Second, tDOM influences ecosystems via complex, interacting, physical-chemical-biological effects and our holistic understanding of those effects is still rudimentary. Third, non-linearities and thresholds in relationships between tDOM inputs and ecosystem processes have not been well described. Fourth, much understanding of tDOM effects is built on comparative studies across space that may not capture likely responses through time. We conclude by identifying research approaches that may be important for overcoming those challenges in order to provide policy- and management-relevant predictions about the implications of changing tDOM inputs for lakes.

Ecosystems↗

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Climatic Change↗

A landscape-scale assessment of above- and belowground primary production in coastal wetlands: Implications for climate change-induced community shifts

Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e., how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? This is the first study to measure both above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span an entire coastal gradient from fresh to saline wetlands. We hypothesized that increasing salinity would limit rates of primary production, and saline marshes would have lower rates of above- and belowground production than fresher marshes. However, along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast in Louisiana, USA, we found that aboveground production was highest in brackish marshes, compared with fresh, intermediate, and saline marshes, and belowground production was similar among all wetland types along the salinity gradient. Multiple regression analysis indicated that salinity was the only significant predictor of production, and its influence was dependent upon wetland type. We concluded that (1) salinity had a negative effect on production within wetland type, and this relationship was strongest in the fresh marsh (0–2 PSU) and (2) along the overall landscape gradient, production was maintained by mechanisms at the scale of wetland type, which were likely related to plant energetics. Regardless of wetland type, we found that belowground production was significantly greater than aboveground production. Additionally, inter-annual variation, associated with severe drought conditions, was observed exclusively for belowground production, which may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem health than aboveground production.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

Distribution and dynamics of mangrove forests of South Asia

Mangrove forests in South Asia occur along the tidal sea edge of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These forests provide important ecosystem goods and services to the region's dense coastal populations and support important functions of the biosphere. Mangroves are under threat from both natural and anthropogenic stressors; however the current status and dynamics of the region's mangroves are poorly understood. We mapped the current extent of mangrove forests in South Asia and identified mangrove forest cover change (gain and loss) from 2000 to 2012 using Landsat satellite data. We also conducted three case studies in Indus Delta (Pakistan), Goa (India), and Sundarbans (Bangladesh and India) to identify rates, patterns, and causes of change in greater spatial and thematic details compared to regional assessment of mangrove forests. Our findings revealed that the areal extent of mangrove forests in South Asia is approximately 1,187,476 ha representing ∼7% of the global total. Our results showed that from 2000 to 2012, 92,135 ha of mangroves were deforested and 80,461 ha were reforested with a net loss of 11,673 ha. In all three case studies, mangrove areas have remained the same or increased slightly, however, the turnover was greater than the net change. Both, natural and anthropogenic factors are responsible for the change and turnover. The major causes of forest cover change are similar throughout the region; however, specific factors may be dominant in specific areas. Major causes of deforestation in South Asia include (i) conversion to other land use (e.g. conversion to agriculture, shrimp farms, development, and human settlement), (ii) over-harvesting (e.g. grazing, browsing and lopping, and fishing), (iii) pollution, (iv) decline in freshwater availability, (v) floodings, (vi) reduction of silt deposition, (vii) coastal erosion, and (viii) disturbances from tropical cyclones and tsunamis. Our analysis in the region's diverse socio-economic and environmental conditions highlights complex patterns of mangrove distribution and change. Results from this study provide important insight to the conservation and management of the important and threatened South Asian mangrove ecosystem.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Saproxylic beetles' morphological traits and higher trophic guilds indicate boreal forest naturalness

Forests contribute to numerous ecosystem functions and services and contain a large proportion of terrestrial biodiversity, but they are being negatively impaced by anthropogenic activities. Forests that have never been clear-cut and have old growth characteristics, termed “near-natural,” often harbor different and richer species assemblages than managed forests. Alternative management strategies may be able to balance the needs of biodiversity with the demands of forestry, but evaluation efforts are limited by the challenges of measuring biodiversity. Species richness is frequently used as a simple measure of biodiversity, but research indicates that it may not adequately capture community-level changes. Alternatively, trait-based measures of biodiversity may prove to be useful, but research is lacking. In this paper, we use a large dataset that includes 339 obligate saproxylic beetle species collected over a decade in the boreal region throughout southern Norway to: (1) establish if there is a difference in beetle community composition between near-natural and managed forests; and (2) determine which measures of beetle biodiversity best indicate forest naturalness. We arranged the sites in an ordination space and tested for differences in community composition between these forest types. We also tested different measures of biodiversity to determine which were the most predictive of forest naturalness. We found a clear difference in community composition between near-natural and managed forests. Additionally, three measures of biodiversity were most predictive of forest naturalness: proportional abundance of predators, community weighted mean (CWM) of wing length, and CWM of body roundness. The probability that a forest was near-natural increased with the proportional abundance of predators but decreased with CWM wing length and body roundness. Although species richness was higher in near-natural forests, the effect was not significant. Overall, our findings underscore the conservation value of near-natural forests and highlight the potential of several measures of biodiversity for determining forest quality.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946–1975; 1976–2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗