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Managing Fire in the Northern Chihuahuan Desert: A Review and Analysis of the Literature

Executive Summary This report began as a literature review (Gebow and Halvorson 2001) conducted for fire planners at Carlsbad Caverns National Park who were seeking information about (1) the natural state of park vegetation, (2) northern Chihuahuan Desert natural fire regimes, and (3) fire effects on park plant species. It is the goal of managers there to continue to refine the wildland and prescribed fire program as they learn more about the ecosystems at the park.The park has a history of grazing and then fire suppression in the 20th century. The current effort revisits questions asked by earlier workers at the park, Walter Kittams and Gary Ahlstrand, who began fire studies in the 1970s. This document addresses ecosystems and historical change to those systems in Chihuahuan Desert areas of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, west Texas, or in neighboring regions that share the same plant species. It examines fire literature for situations possibly analogous to those at Carlsbad Caverns. It also includes papers that offer advice on extrapolating future ecological trends from past ones (Swetnam et al. 1999) and on resource management decision-making (Grumbine 1997), and other pieces that address broader aspects of fire or landscape change (Goldman 1994; Marston 1996; Mutch 1994, 1995). These more philosophical works were included in the original review at the park's request and have been retained here because they discuss other issues relevant to fire management. Individual reviews of 35 papers, as requested originally by Carlsbad Caverns, appear in Appendix 1. The results section-summary of key findings-discusses historical changes to plant communities then focuses on burn intervals observed or recommended by workers for particular plant communities. Results from a search of the USDA Forest Service's Fire Effects Information System (www.fs.fed.us/database/feis) are also included in this report, supplemented with information from a review conducted by Ahlstrand (1981b) that included much of his own work. This database contains comprehensive plant species accounts and fire effects data. Entries are available for a number of the dominant species at Carlsbad Caverns, though the information frequently applies to the plants in other parts of their ranges. The literature presents highly variable fire effects and observed/recommended burn intervals for similar plant communities in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. While local and longer-term fire-effects studies are still needed to guide resource managers, the variability seen in the literature itself translates into a fire management goal. Preserving the irregularity in time and space of fires would likely best replicate 'natural' fire regimes.

Open-File Report↗

Using landscape metrics to characterize towns along an urban-rural gradient

Context Urban-rural gradients are useful tools when examining the influence of human disturbances on ecological, social and coupled systems, yet the most commonly used gradient definitions are based on single broad measures such as housing density or percent forest cover that fail to capture landscape patterns important for conservation. Objectives We present an approach to defining urban–rural gradients that integrates multiple landscape pattern metrics related to ecosystem processes important for natural resources and wildlife sustainability. Methods We develop a set of land cover composition and configuration metrics and then use them as inputs to a cluster analysis process that, in addition to grouping towns with similar attributes, identifies exemplar towns for each group. We compare the outcome of the cluster-based urban-rural gradient typology to outcomes for four commonly-used rule-based typologies and discuss implications for resource management and conservation. Results The resulting cluster-based typology defines five town types (urban, suburban, exurban, rural, and agricultural) and notably identifies a bifurcation along the gradient distinguishing among rural forested and agricultural towns. Landscape patterns (e.g., core and islet forests) influence where individual towns fall along the gradient. Designations of town type differ substantially among the five different typologies, particularly along the middle of the gradient. Conclusions Understanding where a town occurs along the urban-rural gradient could aid local decision-makers in prioritizing and balancing between development and conservation scenarios. Variations in outcomes among the different urban-rural gradient typologies raise concerns that broad-measure classifications do not adequately account for important landscape patterns. We suggest future urban-rural gradient studies utilize more robust classification approaches.

Connecticut. Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Effects of solar energy development on ants in the Mojave Desert

Land-use change from solar energy development may affect desert ecosystems and the soils, plants, and animals therein, yet our understanding of these interactions is nascent. With their ubiquity, criticality as ecosystem constituents, and sensitivity to environmental variation, ants may be useful study organisms for elucidating ecological effects of solar energy development in deserts. Our objectives were to disentangle the response of a desert ant community to solar energy development decisions and test the efficacy of ants as bioindicators at a solar power facility (392 MW) in the Mojave Desert, USA. We used pitfall traps to collect ants in treatments representing different solar energy development decisions, including variably intense site preparation practices: blading (i.e., bulldozing) and mowing, and establishment of undeveloped patches in solar fields, replicated across three power blocks comprising the facility and in undeveloped control sites surrounding the facility. We determined that ant abundance, species richness, Shannon Diversity Index, and functional richness were lower in bladed treatments than in all other treatments and controls. For most taxonomic and functional ant responses, we detected no difference between nonbladed treatments and controls; these results suggest that less intensive site preparation and increased spatial heterogeneity (i.e., undeveloped patches in solar fields) can reduce the negative effects of solar energy development on desert ants. However, our results indicate that ants may serve as useful bioindicators of the severity of anthropogenic disturbance from solar energy development in deserts, and indicator analysis signifies that solar energy infrastructure may negatively affect some species with high ecological value (e.g., harvester ants). Negative effects of solar energy development on ants can have significant implications for desert ecosystem function and integrity, but conservation-minded solar facility design and construction may lead to avoidance of “bottom-up” ecological ramifications of increased solar production during the renewable energy transition.

California↗

Characterizing groundwater/surface-water interaction using hydrograph-separation techniques and groundwater-level data throughout the Mississippi Delta, USA

The Mississippi Delta, located in northwest Mississippi, is an area dense with industrial-level agriculture sustained by groundwater-dependent irrigation supplied by the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial aquifer (alluvial aquifer). The Delta provides agricultural commodities across the United States and around the world. Observed declines in groundwater altitudes and streamflow contemporaneous with increases in irrigation have raised concerns about future groundwater availability and the effects of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow. To quantify the impacts of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow and increase understanding of groundwater and surface-water interaction, hydrograph-separation techniques were used to estimate baseflow and identify statistical streamflow trends. The analysis was conducted using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox open-source software and daily hydrologic data provided by a spatially-distributed network of paired groundwater wells and streamgaging sites. This study found that effects of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow were observed as statistically significant reductions in baseflow in areas with substantial groundwater-altitude declines. Hydrograph-separation and trend analyses may be applicable to assess the impacts of groundwater withdrawals in altered environments and streamflow may be used as a proxy for changes in groundwater availability. Characterizing and defining hydrologic relations between groundwater and surface water will help scientists and water-resource managers refine a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the Mississippi Delta that will be used to aid water-resource managers in future decisions concerning the alluvial aquifer.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

Establishing a pre-mining geochemical baseline at a uranium mine near Grand Canyon National Park, USA

During 2012, approximately 404,000 ha of Federal Land in northern Arizona was withdrawn from consideration of mineral extraction for a 20-year period to protect the Grand Canyon watershed from potentially adverse effects of U mineral exploration and development. The development, operation, and reclamation of the Canyon Mine during the withdrawal period provide an excellent field site to understand and document off-site migration of radionuclides within the withdrawal area. As part of the Department of Interior's (DOI's) study plan for the exclusion area, the objective of our study is to utilize pre-defined decision units (DUs) in areas within and surrounding the Canyon Mine to demonstrate how newly established incremental sampling methodologies (ISM) combined with multivariate statistical methods can be used to document a repeatable and statistically defensible measure of pre-mining baseline conditions in surface soils and stream sediment samples prior to ore extraction. During the survey in June 2013, the highest pre-mining 95% upper confidence level (UCL) concentrations with respect to As, Mo, U, and V were found in the triplicate samples collected from surface soils in the mine site DU designated as M1. Gamma activities were slightly elevated in soils within the M1 DU (up to 28 &mu;R/h); however, off-site gamma activities in soil and stream-sediment samples were lower (< 6 to 12 &mu;R/h). Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was applied to 33 chemical constituents contained in the multivariate data generated from the analysis of triplicate samples collected in the soil and stream sediment DUs within and surrounding Canyon Mine. Most of the triplicate samples from individual DUs were grouped in the same dendrogram cluster when using a similarity value (SV) of 0.70 (unitless). Different group membership of triplicate samples from two of the four haul road DUs was likely the result of heterogeneity induced by non-native soil material introduced from the gravel road base or from vehicular traffic. Application of HCA and ISM will provide critical metrics to meet DOI's long-term goals for assessing off-site migration of radionuclides resulting from mining and reclamation in the current (2015) exclusion area associated within the Grand Canyon watershed and the associated national park.

Arizona↗

Real-time oil spill concentration assessment through fluorescence imaging and deep learning

Oil spills may pose severe ecological and socioeconomic threats, necessitating rapid and accurate environmental assessment. Traditional assessment methods used to determine the extent of a spill including gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, satellite imaging, and visual surveys, are often time-consuming, expensive, and limited by weather conditions or sampling constraints. Furthermore, these methods frequently struggle to provide real-time data crucial for prompt decision-making during spill emergencies. This study addresses these limitations by combining fluorescence imaging, deep learning, a mobile application, and a data management system for automated and real-time oil spill assessment. Our approach leverages a convolutional neural network architecture for feature extraction coupled with a custom regression model, trained and evaluated on a self-curated comprehensive dataset of 1,530 fluorescence images from two distinct oil types, a napthalenic crude oil and an aromatic-napthalenic crude oil, at concentrations ranging from 0 to 500 mg/L. The proposed approach demonstrates superior performance compared to both traditional machine learning models and more complex deep learning architectures, achieving an R² score of 0.9958 and RMSE of 9.28. The application enables rapid, cost-effective field measurements with robust data tracking and analysis capabilities. This research advances oil spill monitoring technology with a scalable solution that balances accuracy, speed, and accessibility for real-time environmental assessment and emergency response.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

Effects of fluctuating flows and a controlled flood on incubation success and early survival rates and growth of age-0 rainbow trout in a large regulated river

Hourly fluctuations in flow from Glen Canyon Dam were increased in an attempt to limit the population of nonnative rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Colorado River, Arizona, due to concerns about negative effects of nonnative trout on endangered native fishes. Controlled floods have also been conducted to enhance native fish habitat. We estimated that rainbow trout incubation mortality rates resulting from greater fluctuations in flow were 23–49% (2003 and 2004) compared with 5–11% under normal flow fluctuations (2006–2010). Effects of this mortality were apparent in redd excavations but were not seen in hatch date distributions or in the abundance of the age-0 population. Multiple lines of evidence indicated that a controlled flood in March 2008, which was intended to enhance native fish habitat, resulted in a large increase in early survival rates of age-0 rainbow trout. Age-0 abundance in July 2008 was over fourfold higher than expected given the number of viable eggs that produced these fish. A hatch date analysis indicated that early survival rates were much higher for cohorts that hatched about 1 month after the controlled flood (∼April 15) relative to those that hatched before this date. The cohorts that were fertilized after the flood were not exposed to high flows and emerged into better-quality habitat with elevated food availability. Interannual differences in age-0 rainbow trout growth based on otolith microstructure supported this hypothesis. It is likely that strong compensation in survival rates shortly after emergence mitigated the impact of incubation losses caused by increases in flow fluctuations. Control of nonnative fish populations will be most effective when additional mortality is applied to older life stages after the majority of density-dependent mortality has occurred. Our study highlights the need to rigorously assess instream flow decisions through the evaluation of population-level responses.

Arizona↗

How low is too low? Partnering with stakeholders and managers to define ecologically based low-flow thresholds in a perennial temperate river

Managing aquatic ecosystems for people and nature can be improved by collaboration among scientists, managers, decision-makers, and other stakeholders. Many collaborative and interdisciplinary approaches have been developed to address the management of freshwater ecosystems; however, there are still barriers to overcome. We worked as part of a regional stakeholder group comprising municipal water utility operators, conservation organizations, academic partners, and other stakeholders to understand the effects of low-flow and drought on ecological functions of the upper Flint River, Georgia (USA), a free-flowing river important for municipal water supply, recreation, and native biota. We used published literature and locally targeted studies to identify quantitative flow targets that could be used to inform water management and drought planning. Drawing from principles of Translational Ecology, we relied on an iterative process to develop information needs for the group and maintained communication and engagement throughout data collection, analysis, and synthesis. We identified three quantitative flow benchmarks to evaluate the ecological impacts of drought in the river. The results were valuable to both the water utilities represented in the working group and State regional water planning, which is used to guide water management strategies and permitting for the basin. We identified principles that were important for the successful engagement in the working group and helped to overcome the challenge of working across sectors and without direct authority guiding the implementation of our work. Interdisciplinary work and creative solutions are crucial to plan for and adapt to greater pressure on our water resources.

River Research and Applications↗

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary . The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, allowing for greater oil and gas production from previously unrecoverable reservoirs. Quantification of the water resources required for UOG development and production is difficult because of disparate data sources, variable reporting requirements across boundaries (local, State, and national), and incomplete or proprietary datasets. A topical study was started in 2015 under the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water Availability and Use Science Program, as part of the directive in the Secure Water Act for the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a National Water Census, to better understand the relation between production of UOG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The Water Availability and Use Science Program goal for this topical study is to develop and apply a statistical model to better estimate the water use associated with UOG development, regardless of the location and target geologic formation. As a first step, a conceptual model has been developed to characterize the life cycle of water use in areas of UOG development. Categories of water use and the way water-use data are collected might change over time; therefore, a generic approach was used in developing the conceptual model to allow for greater flexibility in adapting to future changes or newly available data. UOG development can be summarized into four stages: predrilling construction, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and ongoing production. The water used in UOG production can be categorized further as direct, indirect, or ancillary water use. Direct water use is defined as the water used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing a well and for maintaining the well during ongoing production. Indirect water use is defined as the water used at or near a well pad. The water used for dust abatement also is considered an indirect use but may be applied away from the well pad. Ancillary water use is defined as the additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) directly related to UOG development throughout the life cycle that is not used directly in the well or indirectly for any other purpose at the well pad. The conceptual model presented in this report consists of five elements: (1) input data, (2) processes, (3) decisions, (4) output data, and (5) outcomes. The input data requirements for estimating water use associated with UOG development are somewhat onerous, and obtaining suitable datasets can be challenging because local, State, and Federal agencies do not collect data similarly. The quality of a water-use assessment that uses the conceptual model presented in this report is dependent on the quality and quantity of data that are available for a UOG play. The conceptual model can be used for an assessment with sparse data; however, having sparse data likely will result in greater uncertainty in the water-use estimates. The conceptual model presented in this report is designed to be robust to characterize and simulate the data processing to estimate water use associated with UOG development. Although the results of an analysis that includes missing data have greater uncertainty, the analysis still can be insightful because it can establish a baseline estimate of UOG water use that may be refined further as more data become available. Analysis of models that include missing data also could aid in identifying the data most needed for future water-use estimates. Characterizing individual model limitations is important because the conceptual model can be used in future water-use studies to facilitate data compiling, data processing, estimating, and assessing UOG activities regardless of location.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Salamander chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ) in the United States—Developing research, monitoring, and management strategies

The recently (2013) identified pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivoran s ( Bsal ), poses a severe threat to the distribution and abundance of salamanders within the United States and Europe. Development of a response strategy for the potential, and likely, invasion of Bsal into the United States is crucial to protect global salamander biodiversity. A formal working group, led by Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins Science Center, and Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, was held at the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States from June 23 to June 25, 2015, to identify crucial Bsal research and monitoring needs that could inform conservation and management strategies for salamanders in the United States. Key findings of the workshop included the following: (1) the introduction of Bsal into the United States is highly probable, if not inevitable, thus requiring development of immediate short-term and long-term intervention strategies to prevent Bsal establishment and biodiversity decline; (2) management actions targeted towards pathogen containment may be ineffective in reducing the long-term spread of Bsal throughout the United States; and (3) early detection of Bsal through surveillance at key amphibian import locations, among high-risk wild populations, and through analysis of archived samples is necessary for developing management responses. Top research priorities during the preinvasion stage included the following: (1) deployment of qualified diagnostic methods for Bsal and establishment of standardized laboratory practices, (2) assessment of susceptibility for amphibian hosts (including anurans), and (3) development and evaluation of short- and long-term pathogen intervention and management strategies. Several outcomes were achieved during the workshop, including development of an organizational structure with working groups for a Bsal Task Force, creation of an initial influence diagram to aid in identifying effective management actions in the face of uncertainty, and production of a list of potential management actions and key research uncertainties. Additional products under development include a Bsal Strategic Action plan, an emergency response plan, a monitoring and surveillance program, a standardized diagnostic approach, decision models for natural resource agencies, and a reporting database for salamander mortalities. This workshop was the first international meeting to address the threat of Bsal to salamander populations in the United States, with more than 30 participants from U.S. conservation and resource management agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. National Park Service, and Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies) and academic research institutions in Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Open-File Report↗

Regional landslide-hazard evaluation using landslide slopes, Western Wasatch County, Utah

Landsliding has historically been one of the most damaging geologic hazards in western Wasatch County, Utah. Accordingly, we mapped and analyzed landslides (slumps and debris slides) in the area to provide an empirical basis for regional landslide-hazard evaluation. The 336 landslides in the 250-sq-mi (650-km 2 ) area involve 20 geologic units, including Mississippian- to Quaternary-aged rock and unconsolidated deposits. Landsliding in western Wasatch County is characterized by a strong correlation between geologic material and landslide-slope inclination. From a simple statistical analysis of overall slope inclinations of late Holocene landslides, we determined “critical” slope inclinations above which late Holocene landsliding has typically occurred and used these as the primary basis for defining relative landslide hazard. The critical slopes vary for individual geologic units and range from 15 to 50 percent (9°–27°). The critical slope values and landslide locations were used in conjunction with geologic and slope maps to construct qualitative landslide-susceptibility maps for use by county planners. The maps delineate areas of low, moderate, and high relative hazard and indicate where studies should be completed prior to development to evaluate site-specific slope-stability conditions. Critical slopes as determined in this study provide a consistent empirical reference that is useful for evaluating relative landslide hazard and guiding land-use-planning decisions in large, geologically complex areas.

Utah↗

An application of Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming

Despite widespread recognition that social-value information is needed to inform stakeholders and decision makers regarding trade-offs in environmental management, it too often remains absent from ecosystem service assessments. Although quantitative indicators of social values need to be explicitly accounted for in the decision-making process, they need not be monetary. Ongoing efforts to map such values demonstrate how they can also be made spatially explicit and relatable to underlying ecological information. We originally developed Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) as a tool to assess, map, and quantify nonmarket values perceived by various groups of ecosystem stakeholders. With SolVES 2.0 we have extended the functionality by integrating SolVES with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps from available value and preference survey data and to produce more robust models describing the relationship between social values and ecosystems. The current study has two objectives: (1) evaluate how effectively the value index, a quantitative, nonmonetary social-value indicator calculated by SolVES, reproduces results from more common statistical methods of social-survey data analysis and (2) examine how the spatial results produced by SolVES provide additional information that could be used by managers and stakeholders to better understand more complex relationships among stakeholder values, attitudes, and preferences. To achieve these objectives, we applied SolVES to value and preference survey data collected for three national forests, the Pike and San Isabel in Colorado and the Bridger–Teton and the Shoshone in Wyoming. Value index results were generally consistent with results found through more common statistical analyses of the survey data such as frequency, discriminant function, and correlation analyses. In addition, spatial analysis of the social-value maps produced by SolVES provided information that was useful for explaining relationships between stakeholder values and forest uses. Our results suggest that SolVES can effectively reproduce information derived from traditional statistical analyses while adding spatially explicit, social-value information that can contribute to integrated resource assessment, planning, and management of forests and other ecosystems.

Colorado;Wyoming↗

Louisiana Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring Program: Mapping habitats in beach, dune, and intertidal environments along the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shoreline, 2008 and 2015–16

Barrier islands, headlands, and coastal shorelines provide numerous valuable ecosystem goods and services, including storm protection and erosion control for the mainland, habitat for fish and wildlife, salinity regulation in estuaries, carbon sequestration in marshes, and areas for recreation and tourism. These coastal features are dynamic environments because of their position at the land-sea interface. Storms, wave energy, tides, currents, and relative sea-level rise are powerful forces that shape local geomorphology and habitat distribution. In order to make more informed decisions, coastal resource managers require insights into how these dynamic systems are changing through time. In 2005, Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, in partnership with the University of New Orleans and the U.S. Geological Survey, developed the Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) Program. The goal of the BICM Program is to develop long-term datasets for habitat coverage, shoreline assessments, shoreline position, topobathymetric changes, and sediment characterization to assist with planning, designing, evaluating, and maintaining current and future barrier shorelines. The overall objectives of the study described in this report were to (1) map habitats for 2008 and 2015–16 for BICM coastal reaches and (2) map habitat change between these two time periods. This report highlights the second phase of habitat analyses for the BICM Program. This work builds on a previous habitat analysis conducted by the University of New Orleans, which included the development of habitat maps for 1996/1998, 2001, 2004, and 2005, along with habitat change maps. For this current effort, a new 15-class habitat scheme was developed from the original BICM scheme to further delineate various dune habitats, including meadow habitat found along the backslopes of dunes, to distinguish between marsh and mangrove, and to distinguish between beach and unvegetated barrier flat habitats. Additionally, a geographic object-based image analysis-based mapping framework was used to incorporate relative topography and address elevation uncertainty in light detection and ranging data to assist with mapping dune and intertidal habitats. For the entire BICM region, the area experiencing a change in a land/water category (that is, land gain or land loss) was 3.4 percent, of which, 59.2 percent was land gain and 40.8 percent was land loss. Areal coverages of meadow, mangrove, scrub/shrub, and vegetated dune increased from 2008 to 2015–16, whereas areal coverages of beach, grassland, and intertidal decreased. The decrease in intertidal, however, was largely due to differing water levels in the orthophotography between the two time periods. Regional analyses of habitat coverage and habitat change captured the dynamic nature of these systems and the effects of restoration efforts, most notably in the Late Lafourche Delta, Modern Delta, and Chandeleur Islands regions. For instance, in the Modern Delta region there was a marked increase in unvegetated flat, meadow, mangrove, scrub/shrub, beach, unvegetated dune, and vegetated dune. As a result, this region experienced the highest percent change for land/water classes (6.6 percent) with land gain accounting for much of this change (70.8 percent). In contrast, the Acadiana Bays region had the highest relative percent loss of all regions. The region had a percent change for land/water classes of 2.8 percent, of which, 79.7 percent was land loss. The results of this study provide information about the areal coverage and distribution of habitats for two recent time periods and change over about an 8-year period. These data can be used to evaluate changes along the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shoreline, including gradual changes caused by coastal processes, restoration actions, and (or) episodic events, such as hurricanes and extreme storms.

Louisiana↗

Historical insights, current challenges: Tracking marine biodiversity in an urban harbor ecosystem in the face of climate change

The Boston Harbor Islands is the only coastal drumlin archipelago in the USA, featuring a distinctive and uncommon geological intertidal habitat known as mixed coarse substrate, which supports a range of coastal species and ecological processes. Recently designated as one of America’s 11 most endangered historic places due to climate change impacts, coastal adaptation and restoration efforts are crucial to their preservation. Such efforts can benefit from historic and current knowledge of endemic and emergent biodiversity. To investigate broad trends in coastal biodiversity, we compiled an inventory of marine coastal macroalgae, macroinvertebrates, fish, mammals, and shorebirds observed in the harbor since 1861. Records span 159 years, consisting of 451 unique taxa from 19 phyla. Analysis of average taxonomic distinctness (AvTD) revealed increases in diversity towards the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, likely associated with improved water quality (dissolved oxygen; AvTD > 85, p = 0.01) due to harbor restoration in the 1980s. Macroinvertebrates comprised 50% of the records, making this the most diverse taxonomic group in the time series. A significant increase of non-indigenous species, primarily macroinvertebrates and macroalgae, was observed over the last 20 years near human infrastructure and across multiple islands, a consequence of global change and characteristic of most urban harbors. The mixed coarse intertidal habitat, which makes up > 70% of Boston Harbor’s inner islands and supports high macroinvertebrate and macroalgal diversity (47% of species records), is not routinely monitored; our findings serve as a foundational resource for climate adaptation projects and decision-making.

Massachusetts↗

Winter survival of female Ring-Necked Ducks in the Southern Atlantic Flyway

North American waterfowl harvest regulations are largely guided by the status of breeding populations. Nonetheless, understanding the demographics of wintering waterfowl populations can elucidate the effects of hunting pressure on population dynamics. The ring‐necked duck ( Aythya collaris ) breeds and winters in all North American administrative flyways and is one of the most abundant and most harvested diving ducks in the Atlantic Flyway. But few studies have investigated the winter ecology of ring‐necked ducks. We used a known‐fate analysis to estimate period survival probability using data from 87 female ring‐necked ducks marked with satellite transmitters in 2 regions of the southern Atlantic Flyway during winters of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Winter (128‐day) survival probability was higher for individuals in the Red Hills region of southern Georgia and northern Florida (0.875, 95% CI = 0.691–0.952) than individuals in central South Carolina (0.288, 95% CI = 0.082–0.514). We attribute the regional disparity in winter survival probabilities to differences in hunting pressure, which are reflected in the number of harvests we observed in each region. Our findings warrant further investigation into regional variation in winter survival of southern Atlantic Flyway ring‐necked ducks, and, specifically, the relationship between variable harvest pressure and winter survival and its influence on ring‐necked duck population dynamics and adaptive harvest management decisions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Improving the use of expert opinion in disease risk analysis for conservation translocations

Conservation translocations are subject to considerable uncertainty and risk, of which disease is one of the most recognized. To address disease risks, several protocols for qualitative disease risk analysis (qDRA) exist and are used for responsible conservation translocation planning. Existing qDRA protocols usually rely on expert judgment, but they lack quantitative aggregation of elicited estimates, transparent treatment of uncertainty, and explicit comparison of alternative disease risk management pathways. We added these factors to a qDRA for translocation of a charismatic species that is extinct in the wild, the sihek (Guam kingfisher) ( Todiramphus cinnamominus ). We asked a panel of seven independent experts to quantify their judgment of risks of pathogen release, exposure, and consequences for seven pathogen hazards under three translocation management scenarios. Experts suggested that implementing a full biosecurity protocol would reduce risk for several pathogen hazards but would have variable effectiveness (11–65% depending on the hazard). There was substantial uncertainty associated with individual experts and noise among different experts, showing the potential for error if decisions are based on single-point judgments (i.e., providing judgment of a central tendency without accounting for uncertainty) from one expert or on collaborative consensus of multiple experts, as is current practice.

Conservation Biology↗

Wilderness experience in Rocky Mountain National Park 2002: Report to RMNP

Approximately 250,000 acres of backcountry in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP or the Park) may be designated as wilderness use areas in the coming years. Currently, over 3 million people visit RMNP each year; many drive through the park on Trail Ridge Road, camp in designated campgrounds, or hike in front-country areas. However, visitors also report much use of backcountry areas that are not easily accessible by roads or trails. Use of the backcountry is growing at RMNP and is accompanied by changing visitor expectations and preferences for wilderness management. For these reasons it is of great importance for the Park to periodically assess what types of environments and conditions wilderness users seek, to help them facilitate a quality wilderness experience. To assist in this effort, the Political Analysis and Science Assistance [PASA] program / Fort Collins Science Center / U.S. Geological Survey, in close collaboration with personnel and volunteers from RMNP and in cooperation with the Natural Resource Recreation and Tourism [NRRT] Department at CSU, and launched a research effort in the summer of 2002 to investigate visitor numbers, wilderness experiences, and management preferences in the Park. Specifically, the purposes of the research reported here are: (1) To determine what constitutes a wilderness experience; (2) To identify important places, visual features, and sounds essential to a quality wilderness experience and; (3) To determine what aspects may detract from wilderness experience in RMNP. Thus, answers to these questions should provide insight for Park managers about visitors' expectations for wilderness recreation and the conditions they seek for quality wilderness experiences. Ultimately, this information can be used to support wilderness management decisions within RMNP. The social science technique of Visitor Employed Photography [VEP] was used to obtain information from visitors about wilderness experiences. Visitors were selected at random from Park-designated wilderness trails, in proportion to their use, and asked to participate in the survey. Respondents were given single-use, 10-exposure cameras and photo-log diaries to record experiences. A total of 293 cameras were distributed, with a response rate of 87%. Following the development of the photos, a copy of the photos, two pertinent pages from the photo-log, and a follow-up survey were mailed to respondents. Fifty six percent of the follow-up surveys were returned. Findings from the two surveys were analyzed and compared.

Open-File Report↗