SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climatic Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

USGS2002

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

RINHewS: Newsletter of the Rhode Island Natural Hi↗

USGS2021

Potential effects of climate change on tick-borne diseases in Rhode Island

Human cases of tick-borne diseases have been increasing in the United States. In particular, the incidence of Lyme disease, the major vector-borne disease in Rhode Island, has risen, along with cases of babesiosis and anaplasmosis, all vectored by the blacklegged tick. These increases might relate, in part, to climate change, although other environmental changes in the northeast (land use as it relates to habitat; vertebrate host populations for tick reproduction and enzootic cycling) also contribute. Lone star ticks, formerly southern in distribution, have been spreading northward, including expanded distributions in Rhode Island. Illnesses associated with this species include ehrlichiosis and alpha-gal syndrome, which are expected to increase. Ranges of other tick species have also been expanding in southern New England, including the Gulf Coast tick and the introduced Asian longhorned tick. These ticks can carry human pathogens, but the implications for human disease in Rhode Island are unclear.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2007

Effects of climatic change on the Thornthwaite moisture index

The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO2 conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

USGS2003

Development of small carbonate banks on the south Florida platform margin: Response to sea level and climate change

Geophysical and coring data from the Dry Tortugas, Tortugas Bank, and Riley’s Hump on the southwest Florida margin reveal the stratigraphic framework and growth history of these carbonate banks. The Holocene reefs of the Dry Tortugas and Tortugas Bank are approximately 14 and 10 m thick, respectively, and are situated upon Pleistocene reefal edifices. Tortugas Bank consists of the oldest Holocene corals in the Florida Keys with earliest coral recruitment occurring at &sim;9.6 cal ka. Growth curves for the Tortugas Bank reveal slow growth (<1 mm/yr) until 6.2 cal ka, then a rapid increase to 3.4 mm/yr, until shallow reef demise at &sim;4.2 cal ka. Coral reef development at the Dry Tortugas began at &sim;6.4 cal ka. Aggradation at the Dry Tortugas was linear, and rapid (&sim;3.7 mm/yr) and kept pace with sea-level change. The increase in aggradation rate of Tortugas Bank at 6.2 cal ka is attributed to the growth of the Dry Tortugas reefs, which formed a barrier to inimical shelf water. Termination of shallow (<15 m below sea level) reef growth at Tortugas Bank at &sim;4.2 cal ka is attributed to paleoclimate change in the North American interior that increased precipitation and fluvial discharge. Reef growth rates and characteristics are related to the rate of sea-level rise relative to the position of the reef on the shelf margin, and are additionally modified by hydrographic conditions related to climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006) . However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

USGS1997

Effects of climate change on southeastern forests

Forests of the coastal plain region of the southeastern United States are among the most productive in North America. Because they form the basis of a large timber and wood products industry, these forests are of considerable economic importance. Also, the forests are rich in plant and animal species. Because they are diverse as well as productive, they have considerable conservation importance. Therefore, understanding potential impacts of climate change on southern forests is critical.

Texas↗

USGS2016

Hydrologic response of desert wetlands to Holocene climate change: preliminary results from the Soda Springs area, Mojave National Preserve, California

Desert wetlands are common features in arid environments and include a variety of hydrologic facies, including seeps, springs, marshes, wet meadows, ponds, and spring pools. Wet ground conditions and dense stands of vegetation in these settings combine to trap eolian, alluvial, and fluvial sediments that accumulate over time. The resulting deposits are collectively called ground-water discharge (GWD) deposits, and contain information on how small desert watersheds responded to climate change in the past. Most GWD studies in the southwestern U.S. have focused on the late Pleistocene because the Holocene was too dry to support the extensive wetland systems that were so pervasive just a few millennia earlier. Here we describe the results of a pilot project that involves coring extant wetlands and analyzing the sedimentology and microfauna of the recovered sediment to infer Holocene hydrologic conditions. In 2011, a series of cores were taken near wetlands situated along the western margin of the Soda Lake basin in the Mojave National Preserve of southern California. The core sediments appear to show that the wetlands responded to the relatively minor climate fluctuations that characterized the Holocene. However, our analysis was limited by relatively low sediment recovery (which only averaged 70-80%) and a general paucity of datable materials in the cores. Additional studies aimed at improving recovery and developing new techniques for concentrating plant microfossils (plant remains that are <150 m in diameter) for radiocarbon dating are ongoing.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Contemporary human impacts on alpine ecosystems: the direct and indirect effects of human-induced climate change and land use

Alpine ecosystems account for ca. 3 % of terrestrial habitats yet, along with adjacent mountain systems, provide water resources to nearly half of the world’s human population. Approximately 20 % of humans live in or near mountain areas, making it inherently important to understand current impacts on these systems. Here, I review literature regarding current and projected human impacts on alpine ecosystems, including the direct and indirect impacts of human-induced climate change on alpine plant, animal, and soil communities. I also discuss the influence of recreation and tourism, grazing, and other land use changes including the introduction of non-native and invasive species in alpine systems. I conclude with management implications as well as future areas of research needed to better understand changes to these systems.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Cahokia's boom and bust in the context of climate change

During the early Mississippian Lohmann phase (A.D. 1050-1100), the American Bottom experienced a political and economic transformation. This transformation included the abrupt planned construction of central Cahokia, a large-scale influx of people to "downtown Cahokia," the abandonment of pre-Mississippian village settlements, the reorganization of farming in the Mississippi River floodplain, and the founding of the Richland farming complex in the Illinois uplands. New tree-ring-based records of climate change indicate that this rapid development occurred during one of the wettest 50-year periods during the last millennium. During the next 150 years, a series of persistent droughts occurred in the Cahokian area which may be related to the eventual abandonment of the American Bottom. By A.D. 1150, in the latter part of a severe 15-year drought, the Richland farming complex was mostly abandoned, eliminating an integral part of Cahokia's agricultural base. At about the same time, a 20,000-log palisade was erected around Monks Mound and the Grand Plaza, indicating increased social unrest. During this time, people began exiting Cahokia and, by the end of the Stirling phase (A.D. 1200), Cahokia's population had decreased by about 50 percent and by A.D. 1350, Cahokia and much of the central Mississippi valley had been abandoned. ??2009 by the Society for American Archaeology.

American Antiquity↗

USGS2009

Evidence for long-term climate change in Upper Devonian strata of the central Appalachians

The highest 1 to 200 m of the Upper Devonian (Famennian) Catskill and equivalent Hampshire formations exhibit a noticeable vertical or stratigraphic change in color and a shift in lithologic character. The lower part of the unit is characterized by typically red, channel-phase sandstones and overbank siltstone and mudstone containing thin calcareous paleosols. These lithologies give way to greenish gray sandstone containing abundant coaly plant fragments, coalified logs, and pyrite, interbedded with thick intervals of non-calcareous paleo-vertisols. The increase in the prominence of preserved terrestrial organic matter suggests that there was a corresponding increase in the abundance of plants in terrestrial ecosystems. The stratigraphic change in lithology within the upper part of the Catskill-Hampshire succession suggests the onset of environmental conditions that became increasingly wet in response to elevated humid climatic conditions during the final stages of Catskill alluvial plain deposition. The sedimentological signature suggesting increased climatic wetness within the uppermost Catskill and Hampshire formations is nearly contemporaneous with the initiation of Late Devonian Gondwanan glaciation in the paleo-high-latitudes. The Appalachian climate record indicates that this change began during the Fa2c and continued through the latest Famennian, reaching its peak during the Fa2d when glacial deposits are recorded in the paleo-mid-latitudes of the Appalachian basin. Evidence of this late Famennian increase in precipitation also is recorded in the adjacent marine environments. Equivalent-age marine units in Ohio and Kentucky record progressive increases in both total organic carbon and the percentage of terrestrially-derived organic carbon. This suggests that there was a late Famennian increase in terrestrial organic matter productivity, and that during the late Famennian, there were elevated levels of runoff produced by the interpreted increase in precipitation that washed progressively higher amounts of terrestrial organic matter into the local marine environments. The late Famennian climate changes identified within the Appalachian basin strata have been recognizable globally, and appear to have had both positive and negative effects on the Earth's biota. Some marine groups exhibit sharp diversity drops or even extinction coincident with the maximum development of the late Famennian ice age. Conversely, terrestrial biota appears to have been more positively affected by the late Famennian increased wetness that accompanied this progressive climate change. Marked diversification and evolutionary innovation, which appear to coincide with this climatic deviation, can be recognized within terrestrial plant communities and early tetrapod amphibians. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2018

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2011

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus , native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Current Zoology↗

USGS2017

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2021

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho (Figure ES-1). Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary (Figure ES-1). The Tribal Nations of the Eastern Shoshone, Northern Arapaho, Apsa´alooke/Crow, Northern Cheyenne, Shoshone, and Bannock have reservations in and near the Greater Yellowstone Area, and 27 Tribes are formally recognized to have historical connections to the lands and resources of the region. Natural resources sensitive to climate change connect many of the major economic activities of the GYA, including tourism and recreation, agriculture, and energy development.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Michigan↗

USGS2016

Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

Fisheries↗