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USGS2022

Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process — co-developed with key stakeholders — to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not co-produced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services (NCDMS) to co-develop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge co-production. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the co-development of a decision framework produced three main ‘breakthroughs’ from the perspective of the stakeholder group: a) recognition of the problem as a multi-objective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift; restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems), b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process, and c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for ‘on-the-fly’ assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina, but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

Effects of natural organic matter properties on the dissolution kinetics of zinc oxide nanoparticles

The dissolution of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanoparticles (NPs) is a key step of controlling their environmental fate, bioavailability, and toxicity. Rates of dissolution often depend upon factors such as interactions of NPs with natural organic matter (NOM). We examined the effects of 16 different NOM isolates on the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs in buffered potassium chloride solution using anodic stripping voltammetry to directly measure dissolved zinc concentrations. The observed dissolution rate constants ( k obs ) and dissolved zinc concentrations at equilibrium increased linearly with NOM concentration (from 0 to 40 mg C L –1 ) for Suwannee River humic and fulvic acids and Pony Lake fulvic acid. When dissolution rates were compared for the 16 NOM isolates, k obs was positively correlated with certain properties of NOM, including specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), aromatic and carbonyl carbon contents, and molecular weight. Dissolution rate constants were negatively correlated to hydrogen/carbon ratio and aliphatic carbon content. The observed correlations indicate that aromatic carbon content is a key factor in determining the rate of NOM-promoted dissolution of ZnO NPs. The findings of this study facilitate a better understanding of the fate of ZnO NPs in organic-rich aquatic environments and highlight SUVA as a facile and useful indicator of NOM interactions with metal-based nanoparticles.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2024

Climate change scenarios for air and water temperatures in the upper San Francisco Estuary: Implications for thermal regimes and Delta Smelt

Climate projections and their effects in the San Francisco Estuary have been evaluated as part of the US Geological Survey’s CASCaDE2 project. Understanding the ecological effects of climate change can help manage and maintain the ecological health and productivity of the San Francisco Estuary. In this study, we assessed downscaled air temperature data from 10 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) trajectories for greenhouse gas concentrations for three regions of the San Francisco Estuary: Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, Suisun and Grizzly bays, and Suisun Marsh. We also used previously derived regression models to estimate future water temperatures at 16 locations in the upper San Francisco Estuary. We used a thermal regime approach to summarize water temperature projections to investigate changes to the thermal regime of the upper San Francisco Estuary, and used the Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) to demonstrate the effects that a warming climate may have on the habitat needs of this fish species. Our results suggested there were no major differences in the extent of air-temperature warming among the three regions. Annual average air temperatures were projected to increase approximately 2.0 °C and 4.7 °C by the end of the century for the low and high RCP scenarios, respectively. We found timing, frequency, and magnitude metrics varied by period and RCP scenario, while duration and variability metrics varied by space for water-temperature thermal regimes. For example, the spawning window for Delta Smelt (thermal-regime duration metric) is projected to expand in the future, with spawning starting earlier for both RCP scenarios for most sites. Although our thermal-regime analysis focused on the life history of Delta Smelt, similar approaches could be used to assess climate-change threats to a wide array of native and invasive terrestrial and aquatic species found in San Francisco Estuary.

California↗
USGS2007

Plumbing the global carbon cycle: Integrating inland waters into the terrestrial carbon budget

Because freshwater covers such a small fraction of the Earth's surface area, inland freshwater ecosystems (particularly lakes, rivers, and reservoirs) have rarely been considered as potentially important quantitative components of the carbon cycle at either global or regional scales. By taking published estimates of gas exchange, sediment accumulation, and carbon transport for a variety of aquatic systems, we have constructed a budget for the role of inland water ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. Our analysis conservatively estimates that inland waters annually receive, from a combination of background and anthropogenically altered sources, on the order of 1.9 Pg C y-1 from the terrestrial landscape, of which about 0.2 is buried in aquatic sediments, at least 0.8 (possibly much more) is returned to the atmosphere as gas exchange while the remaining 0.9 Pg y-1 is delivered to the oceans, roughly equally as inorganic and organic carbon. Thus, roughly twice as much C enters inland aquatic systems from land as is exported from land to the sea. Over prolonged time net carbon fluxes in aquatic systems tend to be greater per unit area than in much of the surrounding land. Although their area is small, these freshwater aquatic systems can affect regional C balances. Further, the inclusion of inland, freshwater ecosystems provides useful insight about the storage, oxidation and transport of terrestrial C, and may warrant a revision of how the modern net C sink on land is described. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗
USGS1980

Examples of the use of earth-science information by decisionmakers in the San Francisco Bay region, California

In the six examples discussed and illustrated here, innovative decisionmakers -- public and private -- have used earth-science information to avoid areas with geologic hazards, protect natural resources, and reduce possible property damage in the San Francisco Bay region. The examples show how: 1) development in fault-rupture areas is regulated, 2) potential waste-disposal sites are identified, 3) aquatic and wildlife habitats are protected, 4) site investigations are required in hazardous areas, 5) supplemental building standards can be applied to unstable baylands, and 6) hazards are disclosed to real-estate buyers.

California↗
USGS2016

The Water-Quality Partnership for National Parks—U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service, 1998–2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Park Service (NPS) work together through the USGS–NPS Water-Quality Partnership to support a broad range of policy and management needs related to high-priority water-quality issues in national parks. The program was initiated in 1998 as part of the Clean Water Action Plan, a Presidential initiative to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Clean Water Act. Partnership projects are developed jointly by the USGS and the NPS. Studies are conducted by the USGS and findings are used by the NPS to guide policy and management actions aimed at protecting and improving water quality. The National Park Service manages many of our Nation’s most highly valued aquatic systems across the country, including portions of the Great Lakes, ocean and coastal zones, historic canals, reservoirs, large rivers, high-elevation lakes and streams, geysers, springs, and wetlands. So far, the Water-Quality Partnership has undertaken 217 projects in 119 national parks. In each project, USGS studies and assessments ( http://water.usgs.gov/nps_partnership/pubs.php ) have supported science-based management by the NPS to protect and improve water quality in parks. Some of the current projects are highlighted in the NPS Call to Action Centennial initiative, Crystal Clear, which celebrates national park water-resource efforts to ensure clean water for the next century of park management ( http://www.nature.nps.gov/water/crystalclear/ ). New projects are proposed each year by USGS scientists working in collaboration with NPS staff in specific parks. Project selection is highly competitive, with an average of only eight new projects funded each year out of approximately 75 proposals that are submitted. Since the beginning of the Partnership in 1998, 189 publications detailing project findings have been completed. The 217 studies have been conducted in 119 NPS-administered lands, extending from Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska to Everglades National Park in Florida, and from Acadia National Park in the Northeast to park lands in Hawaii and Pacific Island territories in the West. Project goals range from periodic stream monitoring, to determining the occurrence and concentrations of contaminants and the potential for them to exceed human health or aquatic life criteria, to conducting interpretive studies to evaluate the effect(s) on or vulnerability of national park resources to visitor usage and other natural and anthropogenic activities.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1995

Chronic bioassays of rainbow trout fry with compounds representative of contaminants in Great Lakes fish

To evaluate the hazard of organic compounds detected in Great Lakes fish by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, we tested compounds representative of heterocyclic nitrogen compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and cyclic alkanes and alkenes. Sixty-day bioassays on the effects of nicotine, phenanthrene, pinane, and pinene on the behavior, growth, and survival of rainbow trout fry, Oncorhynchus mykiss , were conducted in a large, constant-flow, temperature-controlled water system. The following 60-day LCSO's were determined (mg/L): nicotine 5.0, phenanthrene 0.2, pinane 0.8, and pinene 1.2. Values of lowest observed effects level (LOEL) and no observed effects level (NOEL) showed that growth was generally as sensitive an endpoint as behavior and was more sensitive than time of swim-up. The 60-day LC50 values for rainbow trout were compared with earlier acute bioassays with Daphnia pulex and rainbow trout and chronic bioassays with D.pulex conducted at the Great Lakes Science Center. Rainbow trout fry were less sensitive than daphnids in all tests, indicating that toxicity tests with daphnids should be protective of salmonid fry for these types of compounds. The results for representative compounds indicate that these classes of compounds should be included in aquatic risk assessments at sites in the Great Lakes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2015

Declining Dioxin concentrations in the Rhone River, France, attest to the effectiveness of emissions controls

Emission-control policies have been implemented in Europe and North America since the 1990s for polychlorodibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and furans (PCDFs). To assess the effect of these policies on temporal trends and spatial patterns for these compounds in a large European river system, sediment cores were collected in seven depositional areas along the Rhone River in France, dated, and analyzed for PCDDs and PCDFs. Results show concentrations increase in the downstream direction and have decreased temporally at all sites during the last two decades, with an average decrease of 83% from 1992 to 2010. The time for a 50% decrease in concentrations (t1/2) averaged 6.9 ± 2.6 and 9.1 ± 2.9 years for the sum of measured PCDDs and PCDFs, respectively. Congener patterns are similar among cores and indicate dominance of regional atmospheric deposition and possibly weathered local sources. Local sources are clearly indicated at the most downstream site, where concentrations of the most toxic dioxin, TCDD, are about 2 orders of magnitude higher than at the other six sites. The relatively steep downward trends attest to the effects of the dioxin emissions reduction policy in Europe and suggest that risks posed to aquatic life in the Rhone River basin from dioxins and furans have been greatly reduced.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2002

Effects of dietary methylmercury on reproduction of fathead minnows

We examined effects of dietary methylmercury (MeHg) on reproduction of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas). Juvenile fish were fed one of four diets until sexual maturity (phase 1): a control diet (0.06 μg Hg g -1 dry weight) and three diets contaminated with MeHg at 0.88 (low), 4.11 (medium), and 8.46 μg Hg g -1 dry weight (high). At sexual maturity, male and female fish were paired, again fed one of the four diets, and allowed to reproduce (phase 2). To assess effects of MeHg during gametogenesis, some fish were fed diets during phase 2 that differed from those during phase 1. Spawning success of pairs fed the same diet during phases 1 and 2 was 75% for controls and 46%, 50%, and 36% for the low-, medium-, and high-MeHg treatments, respectively. Spawning success of pairs fed a contaminated diet during phase 1 and a control diet during phase 2 was 63%, 40%, and 14% for the low-, medium-, and high-MeHg treatments, respectively, whereas exposure to dietary MeHg only during phase 2 did not reduce spawning success. Dietary MeHg delayed spawning, and days to spawning was positively correlated with concentration of total mercury in the carcasses of test fish. MeHg reduced the instantaneous rate of reproduction of fish fed the same diets during phases 1 and 2. Both the gonadosomatic index and reproductive effort of female fish were inversely correlated with mercury in carcasses, whereas developmental and hatching success of embryos, 7-d survival, and 7-d growth of larvae were unrelated to mercury concentrations in parental fish or their diets. MeHg decreased reproduction of adult fathead minnows at dietary concentrations encountered by predatory fishes in aquatic systems with MeHg-contaminated food webs, implying that exposed fish populations could be adversely affected by this widespread contaminant.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2015

Multiscale analysis of river networks using the R package linbin

Analytical tools are needed in riverine science and management to bridge the gap between GIS and statistical packages that were not designed for the directional and dendritic structure of streams. We introduce linbin, an R package developed for the analysis of riverscapes at multiple scales. With this software, riverine data on aquatic habitat and species distribution can be scaled and plotted automatically with respect to their position in the stream network or—in the case of temporal data—their position in time. The linbin package aggregates data into bins of different sizes as specified by the user. We provide case studies illustrating the use of the software for (1) exploring patterns at different scales by aggregating variables at a range of bin sizes, (2) comparing repeat observations by aggregating surveys into bins of common coverage, and (3) tailoring analysis to data with custom bin designs. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of linbin for summarizing patterns throughout an entire stream network, and we analyze the diel and seasonal movements of tagged fish past a stationary receiver to illustrate how linbin can be used with temporal data. In short, linbin enables more rapid analysis of complex data sets by fisheries managers and stream ecologists and can reveal underlying spatial and temporal patterns of fish distribution and habitat throughout a riverscape.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS1996

Chlordane, DDT, PCB's, and other selected organic compounds in Asiatic clams and yellow bullhead in the Potomac River Basin, 1992

Chlordane, DDT (dichlor-diphenyl-trichloroethane), and PCB's (polychlorinated biphenyls) were the most widespread organic contaminants detected during a 1992 survey of aquatic biological tissues in the Potomac River Basin. On the basis of existing U.S. Food and Drug Administration criteria, no new threats to human health were discovered, although chlordane concentrations may pose a threat to fish-eating wildlife. Chlordane exceeded the National Academy of Science and National Academy of Engineering recommended maximum concentration for the protection of fish-eating wildlife at two sites. The survey, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program, sampled Asiatic clams (Corbicula fluminea) and yellow bullhead (Ameiurus natalis) at 16 sites to determine the occurrence and distribution of 29 hydrophobic organic compounds. Thirteen of these organic compounds were detected in the survey. Sites with the greatest number of compounds detected include the Potomac River near Alexandria, Va., with 6 compounds detected in Asiatic clam tissue, and Accotink Creek near Annandale, Va., with 11 compounds in yellow bullhead tissue. Chlordane was detected at six sites, with maximum concentrations of 31.1 ?g/kg (micrograms per kilograms) in Asiatic clam tissue and 127 ?g/kg in yellow bullhead whole-fish tissue. DDT was detected at five sites, with maximum concentrations of 12.9 ?g/kg in Asiatic clam tissue and 7.6 ?g/kg in yellow bullhead whole-fish tissue. PCB's were detected at nine sites, with maximum concentrations of 162 ?g/kg in Asiatic clam tissue and 146 mg/ kg in yellow bullhead whole-fish tissue.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Genetics as a tool for conservation and management of West Indian manatee populations in Brazil

A study conducted by the National Center for Research and Conservation of Aquatic Mammals (CMA), United States Geological Survey Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and partner researchers found that the marine Antillean manatee ( Trichechus manatus manatus ) has low genetic diversity in regions where there are territorial interfaces with the Amazonian manatee ( Trichechus inunguis ). The study was published as an article in the journal, Frontiers in Marine Science.

Sirenews↗
USGS2022

The gap between experts, farmers and non-farmers on perceived environmental vulnerability and the influence of values and beliefs

Science has played a mixed role in guiding conservation and sustainability-oriented decision-making by individuals, policymakers, institutions, and governments. Not all science-based conservation and sustainability initiatives that address issues facing humanity and ecosystems and global problems have gained public support. Conservation decisions and policy prescriptions are and may be based on perceptions about and experiences with the environment, local land use, and ecosystems that may not align with or be grounded in science or evidence from experts in the field. Values, beliefs, and perceptions associated with nature play a critical role in how individuals view biodiversity conservation, sustainability, and natural resource management . This study first examines the gap between experts (scientists and other field experts) and the public (farmers and non-farmers) about the state of water and land resources, wildlife and associated habitats, and aquatic biodiversity in the Smoky Hill River Watershed in western Kansas. Second, the study examines the role that values and beliefs play in shaping environmental perceptions for farmers and non-farmers. Analysis confirms that a gap between experts and farmers/non-farmers does exist, especially with respect to the state of the Ogallala Aquifer, playas, rivers and streams, lakes and reservoirs, native grasslands, wildlife habitats, farmland, native fish populations, and wildlife species. Ordered-logistic regression analyses, meanwhile, indicate that farmer and non-farmer perceptions about the state of the local environment are influenced by traditional and self-interested values, as well as environmental values and beliefs, but less so by religiosity and political ideology. Despite broad takeaways, results exhibited heterogeneity across the farmer and non-farmer subpopulations. If environmental professionals cannot align ecological data, stakeholders’ values/perceptions, and policies, then the existing body of technical research and management on sustainability in natural and social sciences may be of little value.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2002

Environmental geochemistry of abandoned mercury mines in West-Central Nevada, USA

The Humboldt River is a closed basin and is the longest river in Nevada. Numerous abandoned Hg mines are located within the basin, and because Hg is a toxic heavy metal, the potential transport of Hg from these mines into surrounding ecosystems, including the Humboldt River, is of environmental concern Samples of ore, sediment, water, calcines (roasted ore), and leachates of the calcines were analyzed for Hg and other heavy metals to evaluate geochemical dispersion from the mines. Cinnabar-bearing ore samples collected from the mines contain highly elevated Hg concentrations, up to 6.9 %, whereas calcines collected from the mines contain up to 2000 mg Hg/kg. Stream-sediment samples collected within 1 km of the mines contain as much as 170 mg Hg/kg, but those collected distal from the mines (> 5 km) contain < 1 mg Hg/kg, indicating significant geochemical dispersion of Hg downstream from the mines. Sediment samples collected from the Humboldt River basin contain ??? 0.28 mg Hg/kg. Leachate samples of the calcines obtained by using a synthetic water leaching technique contain as much as 1500 ??g Hg/l, suggesting that some calcines contain soluble Hg compounds. However, much lower Hg concentrations were found in water samples collected from the Humboldt River system, and these were below the 0.012 ??g/l Hg standard used to protect against chronic effects to aquatic wildlife. Mercury transference from these mines to the Humboldt River basin is generally minor because the mines are typically > 8 km from the Humboldt River, and Hg is transported and diluted through a large volume of pediment before it reaches the Humboldt River. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2018

Pharmaceuticals, hormones, pesticides, and other bioactive contaminants in water, sediment, and tissue from Rocky Mountain National Park, 2012–2013

Pharmaceuticals, hormones, pesticides, and other bioactive contaminants (BCs) are commonly detected in surface water and bed sediment in urban and suburban areas, but these contaminants are understudied in remote locations. In Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA, BCs may threaten the reproductive success and survival of native aquatic species, benthic communities, and pelagic food webs. In 2012–2013, 67 water, 57 sediment, 63 fish, 10 frog, and 12 quality-control samples (8 water and 4 sediment) were collected from 20 sites in RMNP. Samples were analyzed for 369 parameters including 149 pharmaceuticals, 22 hormones, 137 pesticides, and 61 other chemicals or conditions to provide a representative assessment of BC occurrence within RMNP. Results indicate that BCs were detected in water and/or sediment from both remote and more accessible locations in RMNP. The most commonly detected BCs in water were caffeine, camphor, para-cresol, and DEET; and the most commonly detected BCs in sediment were indole, 3-methyl-1H-indole, para-cresol, and 2,6-dimethyl-naphthalene. Some detected contaminants, including carbaryl, caffeine, and oxycodone, are clearly attributable to direct local human input, whereas others may be transported into the park atmospherically (e.g., atrazine) or have local natural sources (e.g., para-cresol). One or more pharmaceuticals were detected in at least 1 sample from 15 of 20 sites. Most of the 29 detected pharmaceuticals are excreted primarily in human urine, not feces. Elevated net estrogenicity was observed in 18% of water samples, and elevated vitellogenin in blood was observed in 12% of male trout, both evidence of potential endocrine disruption. Hormone concentrations in sediment tended to be greater than concentrations in water. Most BCs were observed at concentrations below those not expected to pose adverse effects to aquatic life. Results indicate that even in remote locations aquatic wildlife can be exposed to pharmaceuticals, hormones, pesticides, and other bioactive contaminants.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Influence of dissolved organic matter on the environmental fate of metals, nanoparticles, and colloids

We have known for decades that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycling of trace metals and the mobility of colloidal particles in aquatic environments. In recent years, concerns about the ecological and human health effects of metal-based engineered nanoparticles released into natural waters have increased efforts to better define the nature of DOM interactions with metals and surfaces. Nanomaterials exhibit unique properties and enhanced reactivities that are not apparent in larger materials of the same composition 1,2 or dissolved ions of metals that comprise the nanoparticles. These nanoparticle-specific properties generally result from the relatively large proportion of the atoms located at the surface, which leads to very high specific surface areas and a high proportion of crystal lattice imperfections relative to exposed surface area. Nanoscale colloids are ubiquitous in nature,2 and many engineered nanomaterials have analogs in the natural world. The properties of these materials, whether natural or manmade, are poorly understood, and new challenges have been presented in assessing their environmental fate. These challenges are particularly relevant in aquatic environments where interactions with DOM are key, albeit often overlooked, moderators of reactivity at the molecular and nanocolloidal scales.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2014

Building a better sticky trap: description of an easy-to-use trap and pole mount for quantifying the abundance of adult aquatic insects

Insect emergence is a fundamental process in freshwaters. It is a critical life-history stage for aquatic insects and provides an important prey resource for terrestrial and aquatic consumers. Sticky traps are increasingly being used to sample these insects. The most common design consists of an acetate sheet coated with a nondrying adhesive that is attached to a wire frame or cylinder. These traps must be prepared at the deployment site, a process that can be time consuming and difficult given the vagaries of field conditions. Our goals were to develop a sturdy, low-cost sticky trap that could be prepared in advance, rapidly deployed and recovered in the field, and used to estimate the flight direction of insects. We used 150-mm Petri dishes with lids. The dishes can be coated cleanly and consistently with Tangle-Trap® adhesive. Deploying traps is simple and requires only a pole set near the body of water being sampled. Four dishes can be attached to the pole using Velcro and aligned in 4 different directions to enable quantification of insect flight direction. After sampling, Petri dishes can be taped closed, packed in boxes, and stored indefinitely. Petri traps are comparable in price to standard acetate sheet traps at ∼US$0.50/directional deployment, but they require more space for storage than acetate sheet traps. However, a major benefit of Petri traps is that field deployment times are ⅓ those of acetate traps. Our study demonstrated that large Petri dishes are an ideal platform for sampling postemergent adult aquatic insects, particularly when the study design involves estimating flight direction and when rapid deployment and recovery of traps is critical.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2025

Optimizing control of a freshwater invader in time and space

The global spread of invasive species in aquatic ecosystems has prompted population control efforts to mitigate negative impacts on native species and ecosystem functions. Removal programs that optimally allocate removal effort across space and time offer promise for improving invader suppression or eradication, especially given the limited resources available to these programs. However, science-based guidance to inform such programs remains limited. This study leverages two intensive fish removal programs for nonnative green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) in intermittent streams of the Bill Williams River basin in Arizona, USA, to explore alternative management strategies involving variable allocation of removal effort in time and space and compare static versus dynamic decision rules. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate demographic parameters using existing removal data, with evidence that both removal programs led to at least a 0.39 probability of eradication. Simulated alternative management strategies revealed that population suppression, but not eradication, could be achieved with reduced effort, and that dynamic management practices that respond to species abundance in real time can improve the efficiency of removal efforts. High removal frequency and program duration, including continued monitoring after zero fish were captured, contributed to successful population control. With management efforts struggling to keep pace with the rising spread and impacts of invasive species, this research demonstrates the utility of quantitative removal models to help improve invasive removal programs and robustly evaluate the success of population suppression and eradication.

Arizona↗