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USGS2015

Bioaccumulation trends of arsenic and antimony in a freshwater ecosystem affected by mine drainage

We compared As and Sb bioaccumulation and biomagnification when these metalloids co-occurred at varying environmental concentrations in a stream and wetlands near a contaminated mine site in Idaho (USA). We measured As and Sb concentrations in water and substrate samples, and in tissues of organisms representing several trophic levels. Bioaccumulation of both As and Sb was observed in stream organisms with the following trend of bio-diminution with increasing trophic level: primary producers > tadpoles > macroinvertebrates > trout. We also note reductions in metalloid concentrations in one of two stream remediation reaches engineered within the past 17 years to ameliorate metalloid contamination in the stream. Several wetlands contained thick microbial mats and were highly populated with boreal toad tadpoles that fed on them. The mats were extremely contaminated (up to 76 564 mg kg –1 As and 675 mg kg –1 Sb) with amorphous As- and Sb-bearing minerals that we interpret as biogenic precipitates from geomicrobiological As- and Sb-cycling. Ingested mat material provided a direct source of metalloids to tadpoles, and concentrations of 3867 mg kg –1 (As) and 375 mg kg –1 (Sb) reported here represent the highest whole body As and Sb levels ever reported in living tadpoles. The bulk of tadpole metalloid burden remained in the gut despite attempts to purge the tadpoles prior to analysis. This study adds to a number of recent investigations reporting bioaccumulation, but not biomagnification, of As and Sb in food webs. Moreover, our results suggest that tadpoles, in particular, may be more resistant to metalloid contamination than previously assumed.

Environmental Chemistry↗

USGS2017

Trends in Rainbow Trout recruitment, abundance, survival, and growth during a boom-and-bust cycle in a tailwater fishery

Data from a large-scale mark-recapture study was used in an open population model to determine the cause for long-term trends in growth and abundance of a Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss population in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam, AZ. Reduced growth affected multiple life stages and processes causing negative feedbacks that regulated the abundance of the population, including: higher mortality of larger fish; lower rates of recruitment (young of year) in years when growth was reduced; and lower rates of sexual maturation the following year. High and steady flows during spring and summer of 2011 resulted in very large recruitment event. The population declined 10-fold by 2016 due a combination of lower recruitment and reduced survival of larger trout. Survival rates for trout ≥ 225 mm in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 11%, 21%, and 22% lower than average survival rates between 2012 and 2013, respectively. Abundance at the end of the study would have been three- to five-fold higher had survival rates for larger trout remained at the elevated levels estimated for 2012 and 2013. Growth declined between 2012 and 2014 owing to reduced prey availability, which led to very poor fish condition by fall of 2014 (~0.9-0.95). Poor condition in turn resulted in low survival rates of larger fish during fall of 2014 and winter of 2015, which contributed to the population collapse. In Glen Canyon, large recruitment events driven by high flows can lead to increases in the population that cannot be sustained due to limitations in prey supply. In the absence of being able to regulate prey supply, flows which reduce the probability of large recruitment events can be used to avoid boom-and-bust population cycles. Our study demonstrates that mark-recapture is a very informative approach for understanding the dynamics of tailwater trout populations.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2011

Establishing water body areal extent trends in interior Alaska from multi-temporal Landsat data

An accurate approach is needed for monitoring, quantifying and understanding surface water variability due to climate change. Separating inter- and intra-annual variances from longer-term shifts in surface water extents due to contemporary climate warming requires repeat measurements spanning a several-decade period. Here, we show that trends developed from multi-date measurements of the extents of more than 15,000 water bodies in central Alaska using Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data (1979–2009) were highly influenced by the quantity and timing of the data. Over the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, the study area had a net decrease ( p < 0.05) in the extents of 3.4% of water bodies whereas 86% of water bodies exhibited no significant change. The Landsat-derived dataset provides an opportunity for additional research assessing the drivers of lake and wetland change in this region.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

The effect of use limits on backcountry visitation trends in Yosemite National Park

Backcountry use in Yosemite National Park increased drastically during the decade starting in the mid 1960s. In 1975, use reached a maximum of nearly 79,000 visitors and 219,000 visitor nights. Since then use has leveled off to about 89 percent of the peak figures for visitors and 84 percent for visitor nights. This leveling off is attributed primarily to a general trend of decreased popularity of backpacking in California and not to the imposition of use limits. These limits have been effective in shifting use from peak summer months as well as from heavily used trail heads and travel zones.

California↗

USGS2012

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2024

Low-flow period seasonality, trends, and climate linkages across the United States

Low-flow period properties, including timing, magnitude, and duration, influence many key processes for water resource managers and ecosystems. We computed annual low-flow period duration and timing metrics from 1951 to 2020 for 1032 conterminous United States (CONUS) streamgages and analyzed spatial patterns, trends through time, and relationships to climate. Results show northwestern and eastern CONUS streamgages had longer and more inter-annually consistent low-flow period durations, while central CONUS periods were shorter and more variable. Low-flow periods most often occurred in summer months but start and end dates occurred later in north-central and mountainous western CONUS, which have the greatest number of low flows during cold seasons. Low-flow periods are becoming longer in southeastern and northwestern CONUS but shorter in much of the rest of CONUS. Temperature was correlated with low-flow period duration in southeastern and northwestern CONUS, and precipitation was correlated with duration everywhere, but most strongly in eastern CONUS.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2015

Lake Ontario water quality during the 2003 and 2008 intensive field years and comparison with long-term trends

Phosphorus loading declined between the 1970s and the 1990s, leading to oligotrophication of the offshore waters of Lake Ontario during that time period. Using lake-wide data from the intensive field years of 2003 and 2008 and from available long-term data sets on several trophic state indicators (total phosphorus [TP], soluble reactive silica [SRSi], chlorophyll a and Secchi disc transparency [SDT]), we tested the hypothesis that oligotrophication of the offshore waters of Lake Ontario has continued in the 2000s. Significant differences between 2003 and 2008 include higher spring (April) TP, SRSi, and SDT in 2008, lower summer (July–August) SDT in 2008, higher summer chlorophyll a in 2008, and lower fall (September) TP, SRSi, and chlorophyll a in 2008. The decline in SRSi from spring to summer was greater in 2008 than in 2003. Change point and regression analyses on the long-term data revealed no trend in spring TP since 1996, in summer chlorophyll a since 1994, in spring SDT since 1998, in spring SRSi or SRSi decline from spring to summer since 1999, or in summer SDT since 2001. Neither the comparison of the 2003 and 2008 surveys nor the analysis of the long-term data supported our hypothesis of continued oligotrophication of the offshore of Lake Ontario in the 2000s.

Lake Ontario↗

USGS2019

Prey fish communities of the Laurentian Great Lakes: A cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2016

Annual bottom trawl surveys were initiated in the 1970s in Laurentian Great Lakes Superior, Huron, Michigan and Ontario and in 1990 in Erie to provide annual assessments of the status and trends of prey fish communities. Native Cisco Coregonus artedi and Bloater C. hoyi dominated the prey fish community of Lake Superior. Prey fish communities in lakes Huron and Michigan were dominated by nonnative Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax and Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus for much of 1978-2016, but Bloater was an important species during the 1980-1990s and more recently has become the dominant prey species in these lakes. Alewife dominated the prey fish community of Lake Ontario during all 1978-2016. While nonnatives dominated the prey fish community in Lake Erie, native Emerald Shiner Notropis atherinoides was an important species and occasionally the dominant prey fish after the establishment of Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus in the late 1990s. During the 1980s-1990s Bythotrephes cederstroemi, Dreissena polymorpha , and Dreissena bugensis caused profound changes in Laurentian Great Lakes ecosystems and likely contributed to declines in fish community biomass in lakes Michigan and Huron. The impacts of these invaders were more muted in lakes Erie and Ontario. Lake Superior stands out as the Laurentian Great Lakes success story: Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush was restored, and native prey fishes dominate and support a viable fishery. Although the abundance of Bloater has increased recently in lakes Huron and Michigan, recovery of native prey fishes remains uncertain. The absence of native species among the principal prey fish in Lake Ontario indicates a lack of progress in native fish recovery. Recovery of native prey fishes remains unclear in Lake Erie. The ever-changing state of the Laurentian Great Lakes caused by the impacts of invasive species and ongoing climate and ecosystem change will continue to challenge restoration of native fish communities in the 21st Century.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗

USGS2019

Seasonal epilimnetic temperature patterns and trends in a suite of lakes from Wisconsin (USA), Germany and Finland

Epilimnetic temperatures from the early 1980s through 2017 were analyzed for 12 Wisconsin, German and Finnish lakes. Seasonal temperature metrics exhibited large interannual variability with trends differing among regions. In the Wisconsin lakes, only late summer and fall temperatures increased significantly. In the northeastern Germany lakes, temperatures increased in all seasons, but only significantly for some metrics. The Finnish lakes, which spanned the country’s latitude range, exhibited large spring temperature increases influenced by earlier ice-out; summer temperatures also increased significantly, but fall changes were varied. To elucidate longer-term epilimnetic temperature patterns, earlier records from 4 lakes were analyzed. For Lake Mendota (southern Wisconsin), spring and late fall temperatures increased modestly but significantly since 1894; summer temperatures also increased modestly due to a higher frequency of recent summers with warm temperatures and not from new record high temperatures. Trout Lake (northern Wisconsin) exhibited warm temperatures in some summers during the 1930s-1940s similar to warm temperatures in some recent summers. Air-water temperature relationships coupled with long-term regional air temperature data also indicated summer epilimnetic temperatures in the study lakes were likely as warm in the 1930s-1940s as in recent years. Lake data confirmed cooler epilimnetic temperatures occurred in many summers during the 1950s-1980s coincident with intervening cooler air temperatures during this period. Because epilimnetic temperatures have not increased monotonically since 1900, our study supports continued temperature monitoring in lakes with extensive historical data to better understand and project future effects of climate change on lake ecosystems.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well ( r = +0.69, p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

Illinois↗

USGS2019

Social status, forest disturbance, and Barred Owls shape long-term trends in breeding dispersal distance of Northern Spotted Owls

Dispersal among breeding sites in territorial animals (i.e. breeding dispersal) is driven by numerous selection pressures, including competition and spatiotemporal variation in habitat quality. The scale and trend of dispersal movements over time may signal changing conditions within the population or on the landscape. We examined 2,158 breeding dispersal events from 694 male and 608 female individually marked Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitored over 28 yr on 7 study areas to assess the relative importance of individual (sex, experience), reproductive (annual productivity, mate availability), and environmental (forest alteration, presence of competitor) sources of variation in breeding dispersal distance. Median breeding dispersal distance was 3.17 km, with 99% of all breeding dispersal events <37 km. Mean annual dispersal distances increased by 2.43 km in Oregon and 9.40 km in Washington between 1990 and 2017, which coincided with increases in annual detections of nonnative Barred Owl ( S. varia ). Frequency of breeding dispersal events, both among and within individuals, also increased over time. Female owls moved farther than males (median of 3.26 and 3.10 km, respectively), and birds with less experience (territory tenure) moved farther than those with more experience. Owls that were single in the year prior to dispersal moved 13–31% farther than those paired prior to dispersal. The greatest environmental change occurring over the course of our study was the expansion of Barred Owl populations. Breeding dispersal distance was positively related to Barred Owls in the study area and disturbance within the originating territory. While it appears that social factors continue to be important drivers of breeding dispersal distance in Spotted Owls, increased competition from Barred Owls and habitat alteration have a contributing effect. Increased breeding dispersal distances should be of concern for conservation efforts and considered in population monitoring because changing dispersal behavior may lead to higher rates of mortality and/or emigration from historical study areas.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2022

Animal tracing with sulfur isotopes: Spatial segregation and climate variability in Africa likely contribute to population trends of a migratory songbird

Climatic conditions affect animals but range-wide impacts at the population level remain largely unknown, especially in migratory species. However, studying climate–population relationships is still challenging in small migrants due to a lack of efficient and cost-effective geographic tracking method. Spatial distribution patterns of environmental stable isotopes (so called ‘isoscapes’) generally overcome these limitations but none of the currently available isoscapes provide a substantial longitudinal gradient in species-rich sub-Saharan Africa. In this region, sulphur ( δ 34 S) has not been sufficiently explored on a larger scale. We developed a δ 34 S isoscape to trace animal origins in sub-Saharan Africa by coupling known-origin samples from tracked migratory birds with continental remotely sensed environmental data building on environment– δ 34 S relationships using a flexible machine learning technique. Furthermore, we link population-specific nonbreeding grounds with interannual climatic variation that might translate to breeding population trends. The predicted δ 34 S isotopic map featured east–west and coast-to-inland isotopic gradients and was applied to predict nonbreeding grounds of three breeding populations of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus with two distinct migratory phenotypes. Breeding populations as well as migratory phenotypes exhibited large-scale segregation within the African nonbreeding range. These regions also differed substantially in the interannual climatic variation, with higher interannual variability in the eastern part of the range during 2001–2012. Over the same period, the eastern European breeding population seemed to have experienced a more steep decline in population size. The link between migratory patterns and large-scale climatic variability appears important to better understand population trajectories in many declining migratory animals. We believe animal tracing using sulphur isotopes will facilitate these efforts and offers manifold ecological and forensic applications in the biodiversity hotspot of sub-Saharan Africa.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2022

Global genetic diversity status and trends: Towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well-being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within-species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: ( i ) Genetic Diversity; ( ii ) Genetic Differentiation; ( iii ) Inbreeding; and ( iv ) Effective Population Size ( N e ). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large-scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long-term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2019

Trends in biodiversity and habitat quantification tools used for market‐based conservation in the United States

Market-based conservation mechanisms are designed to facilitate conservation and mitigation actions for habitat and biodiversity. Their potential is partly hindered, however, by issues surrounding the quantification tools used to assess habitat quality and functionality. Specifically, a lack of transparency and standardization in tool development and gaps in tool availability are cited concerns. To address these issues, we collected information about tools used in United States conservation mechanisms such as eco-label and payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs, conservation banking, and habitat exchanges. We summarized information about tools and explored trends among and within mechanisms using criteria detailing geographic, ecological, and technical features of tools. We identified 69 tools that assessed at least 34 species and 39 habitat types. Where tools reported pricing, 98% were freely available. Most tools required a moderate or greater level of user skill. More tools were applied to states along the west coast of the United States than elsewhere and the level of tool transferability varied markedly among mechanisms. Tools most often incorporated conditions at numerous spatial scales, frequently addressed multiple risks to site viability, and required from 1 to 83 data inputs. Finally, average tool complexity estimates were similar among all mechanisms except PES programs. Our results illustrate the diversity among tools in their ecological features, data needs, and geographic application, supporting concerns about a lack of standardization. However, consistency among tools in user skill requirements, the incorporation of multiple spatial scales, and complexity highlight important commonalities that could serve as a starting point for establishing more standardized tool development and feature incorporation processes. Greater standardization in tool design may not only expand market participation, but may also facilitate a needed assessment of the effectiveness of market-based conservation.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2022

Quantifying the conservation status and abundance trends of wildlife communities with detection-nondetection data

Effective conservation requires understanding species' abundance patterns and demographic rates across space and time. Ideally, such knowledge should be available for whole communities, as variation in species' dynamics can elucidate factors leading to biodiversity losses. However, collecting data to simultaneously estimate abundance and demographic rates is often prohibitively time-intensive and expensive for communities of species. We developed a “multi-species dynamic N-occupancy model” to estimate unbiased, community-wide relative abundance and demographic rates. Our model uses detection-nondetection data (e.g., repeated presence-absence surveys) to estimate both species- and community-level parameters as well as the effects of environmental factors. We conducted a simulation study that validated our modeling framework, demonstrating how and when such an approach can be valuable. Using data from a network of camera traps across tropical equatorial Africa, we then used our model to evaluate the statuses and trends of a forest-dwelling antelope community. We estimated relative abundance, rates of recruitment (i.e., reproduction and immigration), and apparent survival probabilities for each species' local population. Our analysis indicated that the antelope community was fairly stable in this region (although 17% of populations [species-park combinations] declined over the study period), with variation in apparent survival linked more closely to differences among national parks rather than individual species' life histories. The multi-species dynamic N-occupancy model requires only detection-nondetection data to evaluate the population dynamics of multiple sympatric species and can thus be a valuable tool for conservation efforts seeking to understand the reasons behind recent biodiversity loss.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2023

Monitoring status and trends in genetic diversity for the Convention on Biological Diversity: An ongoing assessment of genetic indicators in nine countries

Recent scientific evidence shows that genetic diversity must be maintained, managed, and monitored to protect biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Three genetic diversity indicators, two of which do not require DNA-based assessment, have been proposed for reporting to the Convention on Biological Diversity and other conservation and policy initiatives. These indicators allow an approximation of the status and trends of genetic diversity to inform policy, using existing demographic and geographic information. Application of these indicators has been initiated and here we describe ongoing efforts in calculating these indicators with examples. We specifically describe a project underway to apply these indicators in nine countries, provide example calculations, address concerns of policy makers and implementation challenges, and describe a roadmap for further development and deployment, incorporating feedback from the broader community. We also present guidance documents and data collection tools for calculating indicators. We demonstrate that Parties can successfully and cost-effectively report these genetic diversity indicators with existing biodiversity observation data, and, in doing so, better conserve the Earth's biodiversity.

Conservation Letters↗

USGS2021

TrendPowerTool: A lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends

A simulation-based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web-based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool ( https://www.usgs.gov/apps/TrendPowerTool/ ), to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation-based power analysis. TrendPowerTool is implemented through the shiny package in R, but is accessible through a webpage without the need for users to install any software. By drawing on results of 1.4 million scenarios that we simulated on a supercomputer, TrendPowerTool quickly and easily provides an estimate of the statistical power to detect a population trend of a particular magnitude with a planned monitoring program, based on user-specified parameters for the monitoring design and population of interest. TrendPowerTool provides a user-friendly interface that retrieves results instantaneously, facilitating the important step of conducting a power analysis when designing monitoring programs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗