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USGS2009

Effects of fire temperature on the physical and chemical characteristics of the ash from two plots of Cork oak (Quercus Suber)

Cork oak, (Quercus suber) is widely distributed in the Mediterranean region, an area subject to frequent fires. The ash produced by burning can have impacts on the soil status and water resources that can differ according to the temperature reached during fire and the characteristics of the litter, defined as the dead organic matter accumulated on the soil surface prior to the fire. The aim of this work is to determine the physical and chemical characteristics of ash produced in laboratory experiments to approximate conditions typical of fires in this region. The litter of Quercus suber collected from two different plots on the Iberian Peninsula, Mas Bassets (Catalonia) and Albufeira (Portugal), was combusted at different temperatures for 2h. We measured Mass Loss (ML per cent), ash colour and CaCO 3 content, pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC) and the major cations (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + and Na + ) released from ash slurries created by mixing ash with deionized water. The results showed that ML per cent is higher at all temperatures in Albufeira samples compared to Mas Bassets samples, except at 550??C, and the rate of loss increases faster with temperature than the Mas Bassets samples. At 150??C the ash colour is yellowish, becoming reddish at 200- 250??C and black at 300??C. Above 400??C the ash is grey/white. This thermal degradation is mostly observed in Albufeira litter. The formation of CaCO 3 was identified at a lower temperature in Albufeira litter. At temperatures <300??C, pH and EC values are lower, rising at higher temperatures, especially in Albufeira slurries. The concentration of cations at lower temperatures does not differ substantially from the unburned sample except for Mg 2+ . The cation concentration increases at medium temperatures and decrease at higher temperatures, especially the concentration of divalent cations. The monovalent cations showed a larger concentration at moderate temperatures, mainly in Albufeira ash slurries. The analysis of the Ca:Mg ratio also showed that for the same temperature, a higher severity results for Albufeira litter. Potential negative effects on soil properties are observed at medium and higher temperatures. These negative effects include a higher percentage of mass loss, meaning more soil may be exposed to erosion, higher pH values and greater cation release from ash, especially monovalalent cations (K + ,Na + ) in higher proportions than the divalent ions (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ ), that can lead to impacts on soil physical properties like aggregate stability. Furthermore, the ions in ash may alter soil chemistry which may be detrimental to some plants thus altering the recovery of these ecosystems after fire. Low intensity prescribed fire can be a useful tool to land management in these sites, due to the reduced effects of fire temperatures on the physical and chemical properties of surface litter, and can reduce the risk of high temperature wildland fires by reducing fuel loadings. From the perspective of water resources, lower fire temperatures produce fewer impacts on the chemistry of overland flow and there is less probability that the soil surface will be eroded. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Land Degradation and Development↗

USGS2009

Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could segment earthquake rupture zones. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2014

Disease and predation: Sorting out causes of a bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) decline

Estimating survival and documenting causes and timing of mortality events in neonate bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) improves understanding of population ecology and factors influencing recruitment. During 2010–2012, we captured and radiocollared 74 neonates in the Black Hills, South Dakota, of which 95% (70) died before 52 weeks of age. Pneumonia (36%) was the leading cause of mortality followed by predation (30%). We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate weekly survival rates and investigate the influence of intrinsic variables on 52-week survival. Model {S 1 wk, 2–8 wks, >8 wks } had the lowest AIC c (Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) value, indicating that age (3-stage age-interval: 1 week, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks) best explained survival. Weekly survival estimates for 1 week, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks were 0.81 (95% CI = 0.70–0.88), 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81–0.90), and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.91–0.96), respectively. Overall probability of surviving 52 weeks was 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.07). Of 70 documented mortalities, 21% occurred during the first week, 55% during weeks 2–8, and 23% occurred >8 weeks of age. We found pneumonia and predation were temporally heterogeneous with lambs most susceptible to predation during the first 2–3 weeks of life, while the greatest risk from pneumonia occurred from weeks 4–8. Our results indicated pneumonia was the major factor limiting recruitment followed by predation. Mortality from predation may have been partly compensatory to pneumonia and its effects were less pronounced as alternative prey became available. Given the high rates of pneumonia-caused mortality we observed, and the apparent lack of pneumonia-causing pathogens in bighorn populations in the western Black Hills, management activities should be geared towards eliminating contact between diseased and healthy populations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2022

What makes wildfires destructive in California?

As human impacts from wildfires mount, there is a pressing need to understand why structures are lost in destructive fires. Despite growing research on factors contributing to structure loss, fewer studies have focused on why some fires are destructive and others are not. We characterized overall differences between fires that resulted in structure loss (“destructive fires”) and those that did not (“non-destructive wildfires”) across three California regions. Then, we performed statistical analyses on large fires only (≥100 ha) to distinguish the primary differences between large destructive large fires and large non-destructive fires. Overall, destructive fires were at least an order of magnitude larger than non-destructive fires, with the largest area burned varying by season in different regions. Fire severity was also significantly higher in destructive than non-destructive fires. The statistical analysis showed that, in the San Francisco Bay Area and the northern Sierra Nevada foothills, proximity to the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) was by far the most important factor differentiating destructive and non-destructive wildfires, followed by different combinations of short-term weather, seasonal climate, topography, and vegetation productivity. In Southern California, wind velocity on the day of the fire ignition was the top factor, which is consistent with previous assumptions that wind-driven fires tend to be most destructive and most of the destruction occurs within the first 24 h. Additionally, Southern California’s high population density increases the odds that a human-caused wildfire may occur during a severe fire-weather event. The geographical differences among regions and the variation of factors explaining the differences between large destructive and large non-destructive fires reflects the complexity inherent in decision-making for reducing wildfire risk. Land use planning to reduce future exposure of housing development to fire and increased focus on wildfire ignition prevention emerge as two approaches with substantial potential.

California↗

USGS2024

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2000

Trace elements and semi-volatile organic compounds in bed sediments from streams and impoundments at Fort Gordon, Georgia

In May 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, investigated the presence and disbursal of trace elements and semi-volatile organic compounds in bed sediments from selected streams and impoundments at the Fort Gordon military installation near Augusta, Georgia. Concentrations of 18 trace elements and total organic carbon, and 66 semi-volatile compounds were determined from analysis of the fine-grained fraction of bed-sediment samples from 29 surface-water deposition locations. Analysis of the bed-sediment data indicates that commercial and industrial land-use areas generally are associated with the highest concentrations of trace elements and semi-volatile organic compounds, and the greatest occurrence and distribution of trace elements and semi-volatile organic compounds in bed sediments at Fort Gordon. Bed sediment collected at sites having drainage areas less than 1.0 square mile and greater than 45 percent commercial and industrial land uses, have the most occurrences and the highest concentrations of trace elements and semi-volatile organic compounds. Sampling sites having less than 2 percent commercial and industrial land uses had the lowest concentrations, regardless of drainage basin size. Relative rankings and evaluation of individual trace element and semi-volatile organic compound concentration data identified two sites that have substantially higher sediment-quality scores than the other sites. This suggests that these sites have the greatest potential risk for adverse effects on aquatic life. The effects of these elevated trace element and semi-volatile organic compound concentrations on aquatic life in these basins may merit further investigation.

Georgia↗

USGS2023

Long-term mercury loading and trapping dynamics in a Western North America reservoir

Study Region The Carson River including Lahontan Reservoir in Northwestern Nevada, USA Study Focus The discovery, mining, and processing of silver and gold from the Comstock Lode in northwestern Nevada heavily contaminated the Carson River system with mercury (Hg). The river now contains some of the highest recorded water column and bed sediment Hg concentrations reported in peer-reviewed literature. Acute Hg contamination in river and reservoir bed sediment has led to elevated methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations across all trophic levels of Lahontan Reservoir, culminating in significant health risks to humans. Lahontan Reservoir, located downstream from the mills that processed Comstock ore, has served as a Hg trap since the completion of the dam in 1915. Starting in 1997 and extending through 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey has collected and analyzed hundreds of discrete water samples entering and exiting Lahontan Reservoir for unfiltered total Hg (uf.THg), thereby providing a first-of-its-kind opportunity for studying long-term Hg trapping efficiencies within a western North American reservoir. Continuous time series of uf.THg concentration and flux above and below the reservoir were estimated using the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season with the Kalman filtering (WRTDS-K) method employed with newly developed methods to account for non-natural (i.e., managed) hydrographs below a reservoir. New hydrological insights for the region An estimated 31,650 kg (34.89 US tons) of uf.THg entered Lahontan Reservoir during the 25 year period of analysis, accounting for approximately 0.5% of the total uf.THg estimated to have been released to the Carson River system [6.8 million kg (7500 US tons)] over a multi-decade mining boom. Moreover, approximately 92% of the estimated uf.THg entering Lahontan Reservoir was trapped. On an annual basis, however, trapping efficiencies range between 34% and 98%, and are closely related to the total annual discharge. Results also indicate that flow-normalized uf.THg concentrations and loads above and below the reservoir are trending down.

Nevada↗

USGS2019

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin regulated streamflow upstream from Minot, North Dakota

The Souris River Basin is a 24,000 square-mile basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada, and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Above-average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June of 2011, led to record flooding that caused extensive damage to Minot, North Dakota, and numerous smaller communities in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and North Dakota. As a result, the International Souris River Board created the Souris River Flood Task Force to evaluate potential reservoir operation changes and flood control measures to manage future floods and droughts. Part of this evaluation involved identifying a need for a stochastic streamflow model to estimate the likelihood of future flooding or drought. A stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow simulation model described in a previous report was built upon in this report to include the effects of regulation of four reservoirs (Rafferty, Alameda, and Boundary Reservoirs and Lake Darling) and their operation guidelines. First, a regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model was developed and calibrated from when all four reservoirs were in operation until the end of the reconstructed natural streamflow dataset provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1992–2011). The regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model then was combined with the stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow model to provide a stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model for the Souris River Basin upstream from Minot, North Dakota. The stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model was used to estimate regulated flood frequency curves, which are useful for feasibility and design of critical structures such as levees or bridges. Three potential future climatic conditions were considered in this analysis: condition A (wet equilibrium), representing wet (similar to 1970–2017) climatic conditions; condition B (transition), representing transition from wet to dry (similar to 1912–69) climatic conditions; and condition C (dry equilibrium), representing dry climatic conditions. Comparison of the estimated flood frequency curves for regulated flow among the three climatic conditions indicated large differences in flood magnitudes for the more extreme (1-percent or less) annual exceedance probabilities. The estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 29,300 cubic feet per second for condition A (wet equilibrium), compared to 14,800 cubic feet per second for condition C (dry equilibrium). For comparison, the recorded peak streamflow for 2011 for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 26,900 cubic feet per second. Although it is not possible to predict how long the current (1970–2017) wet climatic conditions may persist, flood risk for at least the next 25 years, or until about 2040, may be represented best by climatic condition A.

North Dakota↗

USGS2024

Range-wide genetic analysis of an endangered bumble bee (Bombus affinis, Hymenoptera: Apidae) reveals population structure, isolation by distance, and low colony abundance

Declines in bumble bee species range and abundances are documented across multiple continents and have prompted the need for research to aid species recovery and conservation. The rusty patched bumble bee ( Bombus affinis ) is the first federally listed bumble bee species in North America. We conducted a range-wide population genetics study of B. affinis from across all extant conservation units to inform conservation efforts. To understand the species’ vulnerability and help establish recovery targets, we examined population structure, patterns of genetic diversity, and population differentiation. Additionally, we conducted a site-level analysis of colony abundance to inform prioritizing areas for conservation, translocation, and other recovery actions. We find substantial evidence of population structuring along an east-to-west gradient. Putative populations show evidence of isolation by distance, high inbreeding coefficients, and a range-wide male diploidy rate of ~15%. Our results suggest the Appalachians represent a genetically distinct cluster with high levels of private alleles and substantial differentiation from the rest of the extant range. Site-level analyses suggest low colony abundance estimates for B. affinis compared to similar datasets of stable, co-occurring species. These results lend genetic support to trends from observational studies, suggesting that B. affinis has undergone a recent decline and exhibit substantial spatial structure. The low colony abundances observed here suggest caution in overinterpreting the stability of populations even where B. affinis is reliably detected interannually. These results help delineate informed management units, provide context for the potential risks of translocation programs, and help set clear recovery targets for this and other threatened bumble bee species.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minne↗

USGS2017

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota↗

USGS2016

Conditions and processes affecting sand resources at archeological sites in the Colorado River corridor below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

This study examined links among fluvial, aeolian, and hillslope geomorphic processes that affect archeological sites and surrounding landscapes in the Colorado River corridor downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona. We assessed the potential for Colorado River sediment to enhance the preservation of river-corridor archeological resources through aeolian sand deposition or mitigation of gully erosion. By identifying locally prevailing wind directions, locations of modern sandbars, and likely aeolian-transport barriers, we determined that relatively few archeological sites are now ideally situated to receive aeolian sand supply from sandbars deposited by recent controlled floods. Whereas three-fourths of the 358 river-corridor archeological sites we examined include Colorado River sediment as an integral component of their geomorphic context, only 32 sites currently appear to have a high degree of connectivity (coupled interactions) between modern fluvial sandbars and sand-dominated landscapes downwind. This represents a substantial decrease from past decades, as determined by aerial-photograph analysis. Thus, we infer that recent controlled floods have had a limited, and declining, influence on archeological-site preservation. Within the study area, overland-flow (gully) erosion is less severe in sand landscapes with active aeolian sand than in landscapes that lack aeolian transport; gullies terminate more commonly in active sand (sand that is mobile by wind rather than stabilized by biologic soil crust). We infer that these characteristics largely result from aeolian sand transport being an effective gully-limiting and gully-annealing mechanism. Aeolian sand activity in the river corridor varies substantially as a function of reach morphology and dominant wind direction relative to the river-corridor orientation, factors that control accommodation space for river-derived sand and the modern sand supply to aeolian dunes. These attributes, together with an inverse correlation between aeolian sand activity and gully occurrence, define varying degrees of net long-term gully-erosion risk for sediment deposits and associated archeological sites in different regions of the river corridor. Over most of the river corridor, including some of the archeologically richest regions, sand is too inactive with respect to aeolian transport to anneal gullies effectively. At eight selected archeological sites that we studied with high-resolution terrestrial lidar scans for more than a year, sand loss by overland flow (gully erosion) and aeolian deflation generally exceeded deposition, such that erosion dominated over most monitoring intervals—even at four sites with strong connectivity to modern sand supply. The Glen Canyon reach of the river corridor appears especially vulnerable to gully erosion. Among the sites that we monitored in detail, erosion generally dominated over deposition to a greater degree at four Glen Canyon sites with no modern sand supply than at four Marble–Grand Canyon sites with aeolian sand supply from controlled-flood sandbars. Although gross annual-scale erosion rates were similar among the Glen Canyon sites and among the Marble–Grand Canyon sites, a relative lack of depositional processes led to greater net erosion at the Glen Canyon sites. Having found no differences in weather patterns to suggest greater erosive forcing in Glen Canyon, and no conclusively influential differences in the slope or watershed area contributing to gully formation, we attribute the greater erosion at the Glen Canyon sites to a combination of inherent geomorphic context (high terraces that do not receive modern sediment supply) and pronounced effects of postdam sediment-supply limitation. We conclude that most of the river-corridor archeological sites are at elevated risk of net erosion under present dam operations. In the present flow regime, controlled floods do not simulate the magnitude or frequency of natural floods, and are not large enough to deposit sand at elevations that were flooded at annual to decadal intervals in predam time. For archeological sites that depend upon river-derived sand, we infer elevated erosion risk owing to a combination of reduced sand supply (both fluvial and aeolian) through (1) the lower-than-natural flood magnitude, frequency, and sediment supply of the controlled-flooding protocol; (2) reduction of open, dry sand area available for wind redistribution under current normal (nonflood) dam operations, which do not include flows as low as natural seasonal low flows and do include substantial daily flow fluctuations; and (3) impeded aeolian sand entrainment and transport owing to increased riparian vegetation growth in the absence of larger, more-frequent floods. If dam operations were to increase the supply of sand available for windblown transport—for example, through larger floods, sediment augmentation, or increased fluvial sandbar exposure by low flows—and also decrease riparian vegetation, the prevalence of active aeolian sand could increase over time, and the propensity for unmitigated gully erosion could decrease. Although the evolution of river-corridor landscapes and archeological sites has been altered fundamentally by the lack of large, sediment-rich floods (flows on the order of 5,000 m 3 /s), some combination of sediment-rich flows above 1,270 m 3 /s, seasonal flows below 226 m 3 /s, and riparian-vegetation removal might increase the preservation potential for sand-dependent archeological resources in the Colorado River corridor.

Arizona↗

USGS2011

Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act

list 83 coral species as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The petition was based on a predicted decline in available habitat for the species, citing anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification as the lead factors among the various stressors responsible for the potential decline. The NMFS identified 82 of the corals as candidate species, finding that the petition provided substantive information for a potential listing of these species. The NMFS established a Biological Review Team (BRT) to prepare this Status Review Report that examines the status of these 82 candidate coral species and evaluates extinction risk for each of them. This document makes no recommendations for listing, as that is a separate evaluation to be conducted by the NMFS. The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

USGS2019

Spatial fingerprinting of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds in an arid unsaturated zone

Subsurface volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can pose risks to human and environmental health and mediate biological processes. VOCs have both anthropogenic and biogenic origins, but the relative importance of these sources has not been explored in subsurface environments. This study synthesizes 17 years of VOC data from the Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) with the goal of improving understanding of spatial and temporal variations that distinguish sources of VOCs from a landfill and surrounding ambient sources including biogenic VOCs (bVOCs). Gas samples were collected from 1999 to 2016 from an array of shallow sample points (0.5 m and 1.5 m depth) and from vertical profiles at three deep boreholes, two (109 m deep) near the border of a waste facility (33 and 100 m distant), and one (29 m deep) in a remote area 3 km to the south. Samples were analyzed for target VOCs and a subset was analyzed for non-target VOCs to enumerate a greater variety of potential bVOCs. Principal components analysis of the target and non-target VOCs provided an assessment of spatial variability of VOCs originating from the landfill site and from ambient sources. Ambient VOCs occurred at all sample sites over a range of depths and most were consistent with biogenic origins, indicating, for the first time, presence of bVOCs in the deep unsaturated zone. Because some VOCs have both anthropogenic and biogenic sources, discrimination of sources can be important for estimating the extent and migration of anthropogenic plumes in arid unsaturated zones.

Nevada↗

USGS2024

Analysis of factors affecting plume remediation in a sole-source aquifer system, southeastern Nassau County, New York

Several plumes of dissolved, chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethylene, have been identified in a sole-source aquifer near the former Northrop Grumman Bethpage Facility and Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant sites in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Past investigations have documented that the groundwater contamination originated from this industrial area and now extends to the south, in the direction of groundwater flow. The intermixed plumes are commonly referred to as the “Navy Grumman groundwater plume.” Detailed groundwater-flow modeling was needed for the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to evaluate design options necessary for the construction, operation, optimization, maintenance, and monitoring of a groundwater extraction and treatment cleanup plan selected in a December 2019 Amended Record of Decision by the NYSDEC to comprehensively address these plumes. Consequently, the NYSDEC began a cooperative study with the U.S. Geological Survey in 2020 to better understand the local hydrogeologic framework using two independent approaches to characterize aquifer heterogeneity and update an existing regional groundwater-flow model to provide transient boundary conditions for new inset groundwater-flow models of the plume area. We developed these detailed inset models for the two independent aquifer characterizations using history-matching techniques coupled with a novel approach to risk-based management optimization of the remedial design. We also used the updated regional model to assess this optimized groundwater extraction and treatment design for potential saltwater intrusion. The ensembles of parameters resulting from history matching provided a platform with which to evaluate capture by water-supply and remedial wells using particle-tracking techniques. Using the ensemble to select a risk stance, we performed multiobjective optimization to identify various configurations of remedial pumping that are consistent with external constraints and that favor potentially competing objectives. Multiple solutions provide tradeoffs that NYSDEC can consider. In general, pumping redistribution may help to prevent further contamination migration downgradient. These and other study results are intended to support decisions for the remedial design focused on the local area encompassing the full extent of the Navy Grumman groundwater plume.

New York↗

USGS2013

Influence of multi-source and multi-temporal remotely sensed and ancillary data on the accuracy of random forest classification of wetlands in northern Minnesota

Wetland mapping at the landscape scale using remotely sensed data requires both affordable data and an efficient accurate classification method. Random forest classification offers several advantages over traditional land cover classification techniques, including a bootstrapping technique to generate robust estimations of outliers in the training data, as well as the capability of measuring classification confidence. Though the random forest classifier can generate complex decision trees with a multitude of input data and still not run a high risk of over fitting, there is a great need to reduce computational and operational costs by including only key input data sets without sacrificing a significant level of accuracy. Our main questions for this study site in Northern Minnesota were: (1) how does classification accuracy and confidence of mapping wetlands compare using different remote sensing platforms and sets of input data; (2) what are the key input variables for accurate differentiation of upland, water, and wetlands, including wetland type; and (3) which datasets and seasonal imagery yield the best accuracy for wetland classification. Our results show the key input variables include terrain (elevation and curvature) and soils descriptors (hydric), along with an assortment of remotely sensed data collected in the spring (satellite visible, near infrared, and thermal bands; satellite normalized vegetation index and Tasseled Cap greenness and wetness; and horizontal-horizontal (HH) and horizontal-vertical (HV) polarization using L-band satellite radar). We undertook this exploratory analysis to inform decisions by natural resource managers charged with monitoring wetland ecosystems and to aid in designing a system for consistent operational mapping of wetlands across landscapes similar to those found in Northern Minnesota.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Stochastic watershed model ensembles for long-range planning: Verification and validation

Deterministic watershed models (DWMs) are used in nearly all hydrologic planning, design, and management activities, yet they cannot generate streamflow ensembles needed for hydrologic risk management (HRM). The stochastic component of DWMs is often ignored in practice, leading to a systematic bias in extreme events. Since traditional stochastic streamflow models used in HRM struggle to account for anthropogenic change, there is a need to convert DWMs into stochastic watershed models (SWMs) to generate ensembles for use in HRM. A DWM can be converted to an SWM using a post-processing (pp) approach to add error to the DWM predictions. Many pp methods advanced in the area of flood forecasting are useful in HRM and for correcting extreme event biases. Selecting a suitable error model for pp is challenging due to nonnormality, skewness, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. We develop a parsimonious pp method based on an autoregressive (AR) model of the logarithm of the ratio of the observations and simulations, which leads to AR model residuals that are approximately symmetric and independent. We document the value of pp for improving flood and low flow frequency analysis and we reintroduce the concepts of verification and validation of stochastic streamflow ensembles to ensure that the SWM can reproduce both statistics it was and was not designed to reproduce, respectively. These concepts are illustrated on a Massachusetts basin using the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, with an additional analysis indicating the approach may be applicable to 1,225 other sites across the United States.

Massachusetts, New Hampshire↗

USGS2015

Opinion: Endogenizing culture in sustainability science research and policy

Integrating the analysis of natural and social systems to achieve sustainability has been an international scientific goal for years ( 1 , 2 ). However, full integration has proven challenging, especially in regard to the role of culture ( 3 ), which is often missing from the complex sustainability equation. To enact policies and practices that can achieve sustainability, researchers and policymakers must do a better job of accounting for culture, difficult though this task may be. The concept of culture is complex, with hundreds of definitions that for years have generated disagreement among social scientists ( 4 ). Understood at the most basic level, culture constitutes shared values, beliefs, and norms through which people “see,” interpret, or give meaning to ideas, actions, and environments. Culture is often used synonymously with “worldviews” or “cosmologies” ( 5 , 6 ) to explain the patterned ways of assigning meanings and interpretations among individuals within groups. Used in this way, culture has been found to have only limited empirical support as an explanation of human risk perception ( 7 , 8 ) and environmentalism ( 9 ).

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗