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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources
USGS2008

National Land Cover Database 2001 (NLCD01) Tile 4, Southeast United States: NLCD01_4

This 30-meter data set represents land use and land cover for the conterminous United States for the 2001 time period. The data have been arranged into four tiles to facilitate timely display and manipulation within a Geographic Information System (see http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/browse/nlcd01-partition.jpg). The National Land Cover Data Set for 2001 was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The MRLC Consortium is a partnership of Federal agencies (http://www.mrlc.gov), consisting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). One of the primary goals of the project is to generate a current, consistent, seamless, and accurate National Land Cover Database (NLCD) circa 2001 for the United States at medium spatial resolution. For a detailed definition and discussion on MRLC and the NLCD 2001 products, refer to Homer and others (2004), (see: http://www.mrlc.gov/mrlc2k.asp). The NLCD 2001 was created by partitioning the United States into mapping zones. A total of 68 mapping zones (see http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/browse/nlcd01-mappingzones.jpg), were delineated within the conterminous United States based on ecoregion and geographical characteristics, edge-matching features, and the size requirement of Landsat mosaics. Mapping zones encompass the whole or parts of several states. Questions about the NLCD mapping zones can be directed to the NLCD 2001 Land Cover Mapping Team at the USGS/EROS, Sioux Falls, SD (605) 594-6151 or mrlc@usgs.gov.

Data Series↗
USGS2022

Medium spatial resolution mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades from Landsat

Land cover maps are essential for characterizing the biophysical properties of the Earth’s land areas. Because land cover information synthesizes a rich array of information related to both the ecological condition of land areas and their exploitation by humans, they are widely used for basic and applied research that requires information related to land surface properties (e.g., terrestrial carbon models, water balance models, weather, and climate models) and are core inputs to models and analyses used by natural resource scientists and land managers. As the Earth’s global population has grown over the last several decades rates of land cover change have increased dramatically, with enormous impacts on ecosystem services (e.g., biodiversity, water supply, carbon sequestration, etc.). Hence, accurate information related to land cover is essential for both managing natural resources and for understanding society’s ecological, biophysical, and resource management footprint. To address the need for high-quality land cover information we are using the global record of Landsat observations to compile annual maps of global land cover from 2001 to 2020 at 30 m spatial resolution. To create these maps we use features derived from time series of Landsat imagery in combination with ancillary geospatial data and a large database of training sites to classify land cover at annual time step. The algorithm that we apply uses temporal segmentation to identify periods with stable land cover that are separated by breakpoints in the time series. Here we provide an overview of the methods and data sets we are using to create global maps of land cover. We describe the algorithms used to create these maps and the core land cover data sets that we are creating through this effort, and we summarize our approach to accuracy assessment. We also present a synthesis of early results and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our early map products and the challenges that we have encountered in creating global land cover data sets from Landsat. Initial accuracy assessment for North America shows good overall accuracy (77.0 ± 2.0% correctly classified) and 79.8% agreement with the European Space Agency (ESA) WorldCover product. The land cover mapping results we report provide the foundation for robust, repeatable, and accurate mapping of global land cover and land cover change across multiple decades at 30 m spatial resolution from Landsat.

Frontiers in Remote Sensing↗
USGS2015

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km 2 ) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km 2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km 2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

California↗
USGS2015

Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2014

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2006

Annual ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration from areas of spring-fed riparian vegetation along the eastern margin of Death Valley, 2000-02

Flow from major springs and seeps along the eastern margin of Death Valley serves as the primary local water supply and sustains much of the unique habitat in Death Valley National Park. Together, these major spring complexes constitute the terminus of the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System--one of the larger flow systems in the Southwestern United States. The Grapevine Springs complex is the least exploited for water supply and consequently contains the largest area of undisturbed riparian habitat in the park. Because few estimates exist that quantify ground-water discharge from these spring complexes, a study was initiated to better estimate the amount of ground water being discharged annually from these sensitive, spring-fed riparian areas. Results of this study can be used to establish a basis for estimating water rights and as a baseline from which to assess any future changes in ground-water discharge in the park. Evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated volumetrically as the product of ET-unit (general vegetation type) acreage and a representative ET rate. ET-unit acreage is determined from high-resolution multi-spectral imagery; and a representative ET rate is computed from data collected in the Grapevine Springs area using the Bowen-ratio solution to the energy budget, or from rates given in other ET studies in the Death Valley area. The ground-water component of ET is computed by removing the local precipitation component from the ET rate. Two different procedures, a modified soil-adjusted vegetation index using the percent reflectance of the red and near-infrared wavelengths and land-cover classification using multi-spectral imagery were used to delineate the ET units within each major spring-discharge area. On the basis of the more accurate procedure that uses the vegetation index, ET-unit acreage for the Grapevine Springs discharge area totaled about 192 acres--of which 80 acres were moderate-density vegetation and 112 acres were high-density vegetation. ET-unit acreage for two other discharge areas delineated in the Grapevine Springs area (Surprise Springs and Staininger Spring) totaled about 6 and 43 acres, respectively; and for the discharge areas delineated in the Furnace Creek area (Nevares Springs, Cow Creek-Salt Springs, Texas Spring, and Travertine Springs) totaled about 29, 13, 11, and 21 acres, respectively. In discharge areas other than Grapevine Springs, watering and spring diversions have altered the natural distribution of the vegetation. More...

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2017

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.

Journal of Land Use Science↗
USGS2013

Land use and carbon dynamics in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) plays an important role in determining the spatial distribution, magnitude, and temporal change of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. However, the impacts of LUCC are not well understood and quantified over large areas. The goal of this study was to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon dynamics in various terrestrial ecosystems in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050 using a process-based modeling system and then to investigate the impacts of LUCC. Spatial LUCC information was reconstructed and projected using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover (FORE-SCE) model according to information derived from Landsat observations and other sources. Results indicated that urban expansion (from 3.7% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2050) was expected to be the primary driver for other land cover changes in the region, leading to various declines in forest, cropland, and hay/pasture. The region was projected to be a carbon sink of 60.4 gC m −2 yr −1 on average during the study period, primarily due to the legacy impacts of large-scale conversion of cropland to forest that happened since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the regional carbon sequestration rate was expected to decline because of the slowing down of carbon accumulation in aging forests and the decline of forest area.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS1978

An "optimal" filter for maps showing nominal data

An "optimal" filtering technique for use with nominal data, such as land use and land cover categories, has been developed. This method is based on the conditional probability joins of neighboring data elements. In addition to its use in performing filtering, the method can be used to calculate the likelihood of each data element being properly classified. The technique was tested on a land use data set for an area in Walnut Valley, Calif. The computer program performing the filtering process proved to be computationally efficient and produced satisfactory results. Useful statistics of the error estimation process were also generated. Future applications of the method to spectrally classified Landsat data are being explored.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗
USGS2004

Edwards plateau: Analysis of land cover trends

The Land Cover Trends project studies the rates, causes, and consequences of contemporary (1973-2000) change in land use and land cover in the United States on an ecoregional basis. The Edwards Plateau ecoregion is the focus of this report. Landsat imagery from five dates during a nearly 30-year period are interpreted for randomly selected sample blocks. The resulting data provide the foundation for estimating change. Along with the image analysis, site visits to 90% of the sampled areas, geographical profiles, and socioeconomic data for the ecoregion are synthesized to assess regional driving forces and consequences of change. Complete project methodology can be found in Loveland et al [1].

Conference Paper↗
USGS2003

Comparison of two methods for delineating land use near monitoring wells used for assessing quality of shallow ground water

Two methods were compared for delineating land use near shallow monitoring wells. These wells were used to assess the effects of agricultural cropland on the quality of recently recharged ground water in two sand and gravel aquifers located near land surface. The two methods for delineating land use near wells were (1) the sector method, which used potentiometric-surface maps to estimate average flow direction and a ground-water-flow model to estimate maximum length of contributing area to the monitoring well within an upgradient sector; and (2) the circle method, which used a 500- meter radius circle around the well based on a national empirical analysis. Land uses were compiled for 29 wells in each of two surficial aquifers in the Red River of the North Basin within the area defined by each method. Land use near each well was interpreted from orthorectified photographs and site inspection for both delineation methods. Land use near individual wells characterized by each method varied greatly, which can affect the results of statistical correlations between land use and water quality. Land use determined by the circle method related more closely to the land use for each entire study area. Land use determined by the sector method (within 200 meters from the wells) compared more favorably to ground-water quality based on nitrate concentrations. The maximum length of contributing areas to wells estimated in this study may be of value for other studies of unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers with similar hydrogeological characteristics of permeability, water-table slopes, recharge, and depth to water. The additional effort required for estimating the model delineation of land use and land cover for the sector method must be weighed against the improved confidence in statistical correlation between land use and the quality of shallow ground water. Improved scientific confidence and understanding of relations between land use and quality of ground water may encourage more effective implementation of land and water management for protecting water quality

Minnesota, North Dakota↗
USGS2020

Temporospatial shifts in Sandhill Crane staging in the Central Platte River Valley in response to climatic variation and habitat change

Over 80% of the Mid-Continent Sandhill Crane ( Antigone canadensis ) Population (MCP), estimated at over 660,000 individuals, stops in the Central Platte River Valley (CPRV) during spring migration from mid-February through mid-April. Research suggests that the MCP may be shifting its distribution spatially and temporally within the CPRV. From 2002 to 2017, we conducted weekly aerial surveys of Sandhill Cranes staging in the CPRV to examine temporal and spatial trends in their abundance and distribution. Then, we used winter temperature and drought severity measures from key wintering and early migratory stopover locations to assess the impacts of weather patterns on annual migration chronology in the CPRV. We also evaluated channel width and land cover characteristics using aerial imagery from 1938, 1998, and 2016 to assess the relationship between habitat change and the spatial distribution of the MCP in the CPRV. We used generalized linear models, cumulative link models, and Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AICc) to compare temporal and spatial models. Temperatures and drought conditions at wintering and migration locations that are heavily used by Greater Sandhill Cranes ( A. c. tabida ) best predicted migration chronology of the MCP to the CPRV. The spatial distribution of roosting Sandhill Cranes from 2015 to 2017 was best predicted by the proportion of width reduction in the main channel since 1938 (rather than its width in 2016) and the proportion of land cover as prairie-meadow habitat within 800 m of the Platte River. Our data suggest that Sandhill Cranes advanced their migration by an average of just over 1 day per year from 2002 to 2017, and that they continued to shift eastward, concentrating at eastern reaches of the CPRV. Climate change, land use change, and habitat loss have all likely contributed to Sandhill Cranes coming earlier and staying longer in fewer reaches of the CPRV, increasing their site use intensity. These historically unprecedented densities may present a disease risk to Sandhill Cranes and other waterbirds, including Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ). Our models suggest that conservation actions may be maintaining Sandhill Crane densities in areas that would otherwise be declining in use. We suggest that management actions intended to mitigate trends in the distribution of Sandhill Cranes, including wet meadow restoration, may similarly benefit prairie- and braided river–endemic species of concern.

Nebraska↗
USGS2014

Using high-resolution digital aerial imagery to map land cover

The Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) has used aerial photography to map land cover/land use on federally owned and managed lands for over 20 years. Until recently, that process used 23- by 23-centimeter (9- by 9-inch) analog aerial photos to classify vegetation along the Upper Mississippi River System, on National Wildlife Refuges, and in National Parks. With digital aerial cameras becoming more common and offering distinct advantages over analog film, UMESC transitioned to an entirely digital mapping process in 2009. Though not without challenges, this method has proven to be much more accurate and efficient when compared to the analog process.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2021

Moose habitat selection and fitness consequences during two critical winter tick life stages in Vermont, United States

The moose ( Alces alces ) is a charismatic species in decline across much of their southern distribution in North America. In the northeastern United States, much of the reduction has been attributed to winter tick ( Dermacentor albipictus ) infestations. Winter ticks are fairly immobile throughout all life stages, and therefore their distribution patterns at any given time are shaped largely by the occurrence of moose across the landscape during the peak of two critical time periods: fall questing (when ticks latch onto moose) and spring drop-off (when engorged female ticks detach from moose). We used recent land cover and lidar data within a dynamic occupancy modeling framework to estimate first-order habitat selection (use vs. non-use) of female moose ( n = 74) during the tick questing and drop-off periods. Patch extinction and colonization rates between the fall questing and spring drop-off periods were strongly influenced by habitat and elevation, but these effects were diminished during the fall questing period when moose were more active across the landscape. From the fall questing period to the spring drop-off period, patches where colonization was high and extinction was low had higher proportions of young (shrub/forage) mixed forest at higher elevations. Further, we evaluated the fitness consequences of habitat selection by adult females during the fall questing period, when females and their calves acquire ticks. We compared Resource Selection Functions (RSF) for five females that successfully reared a calf to age 1 with five females whose calves perished due to ticks. Adult female moose whose offspring perished selected habitats in the fall that spatially coincided with areas of high occupancy probability during the spring tick drop-off period. In contrast, adult female moose whose offspring survived selected areas where the probability of occupancy during the spring drop-off was low; at present, natural selection may favor female adults who do not select the same habitats in fall as in spring. Our model coefficients and mapped results define “hotspots” that are likely encouraging the deleterious effects of the tick-moose cycle. These findings fill knowledge gaps about moose habitat selection that may improve the effectiveness of management aimed at reversing declining population trends.

Vermont↗
USGS2008

Summary and Evaluation of the Quality of Stormwater in Denver, Colorado, October 2001 to October 2005

Stormwater in the Denver area was sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District, in a network of five monitoring stations - three on the South Platte River and two on tributary streams, beginning in October 2001 and continuing through October 11, 2005. Composite samples of stormwater were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory during water years 2003-2005 and the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District Laboratory during water year 2002 for water-quality properties such as pH, specific conductance, hardness, and residue on evaporation at 105 degrees Celsius; and for constituents such as major ions (calcium, chloride, fluoride, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate) in 2005, organic carbon and nutrients, including ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia plus organic nitrogen, phosphorus, and orthophosphate; and for metals, including total and dissolved phases of copper, lead, manganese, and zinc. Samples analyzed for bacteriological indicators such as Escherichia coli and fecal coliform collected during selected storms also were analyzed at the Metro Wastewater Reclamation Laboratory. Discrete samples collected during selected storms were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory for a suite of water-quality properties and constituents similar to those analyzed in the composite samples but that did not include determinations for total phases of metals. Streamflow characteristics associated with 176 composite stormwater samples indicate that most samples were collected from hydrographs classified as falling or event hydrographs and that only a few samples were collected from rising hydrographs. Results from laboratory analyses of the composite samples indicate spatial patterns in which concentrations for some constituents increase with contributing drainage area in the South Platte River and Sand Creek, but no well-defined relation with the amount of urban land cover was identified using data available from the U.S. Geological Survey National Land Cover data. Results from 22 discrete samples collected during two storms and used to obtain composited results with various weighting methods indicate that correlation coefficients between time-weighted and volume-weighted concentrations were generally at least 0.65, indicating a strong direct correlation between the two weighting methods for the stations involved in this study. In addition, the central tendency for relative percent differences between the time- and volume-weighting methods typically has an absolute value of about 10 or less, indicating good agreement for these weighting methods for data collected as part of this study. Comparison of stormwater results to numeric standards for streams developed by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on the basis of use classifications indicates that, for water-quality properties and constituents other than bacteriological indicators, there were very few exceptions to numeric standards. Bacteriological indicators, however, such as Escherichia coli and fecal coliform consistently exceeded numeric standards in all bacteriological samples. An evaluation of laboratory results from composite samples on the basis of annual means indicates the presence of some simple upward and downward temporal trends in concentrations. In general, for annual means of results for all stations, hardness, ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, most dissolved metals (lead, manganese, and zinc), and all total metals (copper, lead, manganese, and zinc) all indicate annual means that decrease each year, or downward trends. Some trends were indicated only at individual stations in the network rather than at all stations. Ammonia as nitrogen at Union, Denver, and Henderson, orthophosphate at Sand Creek, and nitrite plus nitrate at Denver and Henderson all indicate decreasing annual means, or downward tr

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Cooperator Science Series↗
USGS2012

History of land cover mapping

The historical roots of land-cover mapping reside in the early history of aerial photography and applications spanning forestry, agriculture, urban planning, and water-resources management. Considering this long span of mapping, any attempt to provide an exhaustive treatment of the full history of land-cover mapping will necessarily be incomplete. For that reason, this chapter on the history of land-cover mapping emphasizes the “modern” era of land-cover mapping, which has been arbitrarily defined to begin in the early 1970s. This was when civil space-based remote sensing came of age, and intellectual efforts focused on strategies for using new observations in understanding the characteristics of, and the changes in, land use and land cover.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km 2 yr −1 ; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

California↗