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USGS2015

Regional scale estimates of baseflow and factors influencing baseflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study region The study region encompasses the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), which provides water for 40 million people and is a vital part of the water supply in the western U.S. Study focus Groundwater and surface water can be considered a single water resource and thus it is important to understand groundwater contributions to streamflow, or baseflow, within a region. Previously, quantification of baseflow using chemical mass balance at large numbers of sites was not possible because of data limitations. A new method using regression-derived daily specific conductance values with conductivity mass balance hydrograph separation allows for baseflow estimation at sites across large regions. This method was applied to estimate baseflow discharge at 229 sites across the UCRB. Subsequently, climate, soil, topography, and land cover characteristics were statistically evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) to determine their influence on baseflow discharge. New hydrological insights for the region Results suggest that approximately half of the streamflow in the UCRB is baseflow derived from groundwater discharge to streams. Higher baseflow yields typically occur in upper elevation areas of the UCRB. PCA identified precipitation, snow, sand content of soils, elevation, land surface slope, percent grasslands, and percent natural barren lands as being positively correlated with baseflow yield; whereas temperature, potential evapotranspiration, silt and clay content of soils, percent agriculture, and percent shrublands were negatively correlated with baseflow yield.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection

We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR ( S eamless System for P rediction and EA rth System R esearch) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0° (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1° to 0.25°. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems↗

USGS2016

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2003

Evolution of CAM and C 4 carbon-concentrating mechanisms

Mechanisms for concentrating carbon around the Rubisco enzyme, which drives the carbon-reducing steps in photosynthesis, are widespread in plants; in vascular plants they are known as crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and C 4 photosynthesis. CAM is common in desert succulents, tropical epiphytes, and aquatic plants and is characterized by nighttime fixation of CO2. The proximal selective factor driving the evolution of this CO2-concentrating pathway is low daytime CO2, which results from the unusual reverse stomatal behavior of terrestrial CAM species or from patterns of ambient CO2 availability for aquatic CAM species. In terrestrials the ultimate selective factor is water stress that has selected for increased water use efficiency. In aquatics the ultimate selective factor is diel fluctuations in CO2 availability for palustrine species and extreme oligotrophic conditions for lacustrine species. C4 photosynthesis is based on similar biochemistry but carboxylation steps are spatially separated in the leaf rather than temporally as in CAM. This biochemical pathway is most commonly associated with a specialized leaf anatomy known as Kranz anatomy; however, there are exceptions. The ultimate selective factor driving the evolution of this pathway is excessively high photorespiration that inhibits normal C3 photosynthesis under high light and high temperature in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. CAM is an ancient pathway that likely has been present since the Paleozoic era in aquatic species from shallow-water palustrine habitats. While atmospheric CO2 levels have undoubtedly affected the evolution of terrestrial plant carbon-concentrating mechanisms, there is reason to believe that past atmospheric changes have not played as important a selective role in the aquatic milieu since palustrine habitats today are not generally carbon sinks, and the selective factors driving aquatic CAM are autogenic. Terrestrial CAM, in contrast, is of increasing selective value under extreme water deficits, and undoubtedly, high Mesozoic CO2 levels reduced the amount of landscape perceived by plants as water limited. Late Tertiary and Quaternary reductions in atmospheric CO2, coupled with increasing seasonality, were probably times of substantial species radiation and ecological expansion for CAM plants. C4 photosynthesis occurs in only about half as many families as CAM, and three-fourths of C4 species are either grasses or sedges. Molecular phylogenies indicate C4 is a more recent innovation than CAM and that it originated in the mid-Tertiary, 20–30 Ma, although some data support an earlier origin. While the timing of the origin of C4 remains controversial, the nearly explosive increase in C4 species is clearly documented in the late Miocene, 4–7 Ma. Increasing seasonality has been widely suggested as an important climatic stimulus for this C4 expansion. Alternatively, based on models of photosynthetic quantum yield at different temperatures and CO2 concentration, it has been hypothesized that the late Miocene C4 expansion resulted from declining atmospheric CO2 levels. This model is most appropriate for explaining the transition from C3 grasslands to C4 grasslands but by itself may not be sufficient to explain the more likely scenario of a late Miocene transition from C3 woodland/ savanna to C4 grasslands. A largely unexplored hypothesis is that climatic changes in late Miocene altered disturbance regimes, in particular the incidence of fires, which today are often associated with maintenance of C4 grasslands. Oceanic charcoal sediments that appear to represent Aeolian deposits from continental wildfires follow a strikingly similar pattern of explosive increase in late Miocene. Climate, CO2, and disturbance are not mutually exclusive explanations and probably all acted in concert to promote the expansion of C4 grasslands. More recently, late Quaternary changes in CO2 may have been responsible for driving major changes in the landscape distribution of C4 species. The theory is sound; however, many of the studies cited in support of this model are open to alternative interpretations, and none has eliminated climatic factors as important selective agents. CAM and C4 evolution required coupling of biochemical pathways with structural changes in photosynthetic tissues, succulence in CAM and Kranz in C4. This was apparently accomplished by piecemeal evolution beginning with mechanisms for recapturing respiratory CO2, although this need not have been so in aquatic CAM species. It has been proposed that the extreme rarity of both pathways in the same plant results from biochemical and structural incompatibilities (Sage 2002). Equally important is the fact that the selective environments are quite different, with CAM evolution thriving on stressful sites inhospitable to C3 species whereas C4 evolution has selected for rapid growth capable of outcompeting associated C3 plants.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS2012

Sediment fluxes from California Coastal Rivers: the influences of climate, geology, and topography

The influences of geologic and climatic factors on erosion and sedimentation processes in rivers draining the western flank of the California Coast Range are assessed. Annual suspended, bedload, and total sediment fluxes were determined for 16 river basins that have hydrologic records covering all or most of the period from 1950 to 2006 and have been relatively unaffected by flow storage, regulation, and depletion, which alter the downstream movement of water and sediment. The occurrence of relatively large annual sediment fluxes are strongly influenced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The frequency of relatively large annual sediment fluxes decreases from north to south during La Nina phases and increases from north to south during El Nino phases. The influence of ENSO is modulated over a period of decades by the PDO, such that relatively large annual sediment fluxes are more frequent during a La Nina phase in conjunction with a cool PDO and during an El Nino phase in conjunction with a warm PDO. Values of mean annual sediment flux, , were regressed against basin and climatic characteristics. Basin area, bedrock erodibility, basin relief, and precipitation explain 87% of the variation in from the 16 river basins. Bedrock erodibility is the most significant characteristic influencing . Basin relief is a superior predictor of compared with basin slope. is nearly proportional to basin area and increases with increasing precipitation. For a given percentage change, basin relief has a 2.3-fold greater effect on than a similar change in precipitation. The estimated natural from all California coastal rivers for the period 1950–2006 would have been approximately 85 million tons without flow storage, regulation, and depletion; the actual has been approximately 50 million tons, because of the effects of flow storage, regulation, and depletion.

California↗

USGS2012

Evidence from 12-year study links ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine with climate change

Investigators at the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences (East Boothbay, Maine) and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborated to study ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine. As part of the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series (GNATS), a comprehensive long-term study of hydrographic, biological, optical and chemical properties, multiple cruises have been conducted each year since 2001 by using a portable laboratory aboard different vessels (figure 1) and occasionally a remotely controlled glider (figure 2). Data collected during these cruises, when analyzed within the context of a century of climatological and streamflow data, document changes in temperature, salinity, and coastal ocean productivity that appear to be related to recent increases in precipitation and streamflow. These results are evidence of a link between changing hydrologic conditions on land and changes in coastal ocean productivity.

EcoSystem Indicator Partnership Journal↗

USGS2015

Accuracy assessment of NOAA gridded daily reference evapotranspiration for the Texas High Plains

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ET ref ) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large-scale spatial representation of ET ref , which is essential for regional scale water resources management. Data used in the development of NOAA daily ET ref maps are derived from observations over surfaces that are different from short (grass — ET os ) or tall (alfalfa — ET rs ) reference crops, often in nonagricultural settings, which carries an unknown discrepancy between assumed and actual conditions. In this study, NOAA daily ET os and ET rs maps were evaluated for accuracy, using observed data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration (TXHPET) network. Daily ET os , ET rs and the climatic data (air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) used for calculating ET ref were extracted from the NOAA maps for TXHPET locations and compared against ground measurements on reference grass surfaces. NOAA ET ref maps generally overestimated the TXHPET observations (1.4 and 2.2 mm/day ET os and ET rs , respectively), which may be attributed to errors in the NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed, to which reference ET ref is most sensitive. Therefore, a bias correction to NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed data, or adjustment to the resulting NOAA ET ref , may be needed to improve the accuracy of NOAA ET ref maps.

Texas↗

USGS2022

Geochemical investigations of selected Eastern United States watersheds affected by acid deposition

The effects of acid deposition on surface waters in eastern United States watersheds having similar size, physiography, climate and land use are related to the composition of the underlying bedrock. Watersheds developed on greenstone, calcareous shale, sandstone, granite, and schist differ in their ability to neutralize acid deposition. Surface waters in watersheds developed on greenstone and calcareous shale are not discernably affected by acidification. Wastersheds developed on sand-stone have little capacity to neutralize acid rain; consequently, stream acidity is similar to that of precipitation. Watersheds developed on granite and schist are intermediate in their capacity to neutralize acid deposition. Bedrock composition appears to be the major property controlling surface-water chemistry in these systems; hydrologic flow paths and the nature of surficial materials and vegetation also influence chemical responses to acid deposition in watersheds.

Journal of the Geological Society↗

USGS2021

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future streamflow in seven water resource regions in the southwestern U.S. using a new SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model. We present streamflow projections corresponding to input data from seven climate models and two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for three, thirty-year intervals centered on the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, and for a historical thirty year interval centered on the 1990s. Across water resource regions, about half of the RCP4.5 models (51%) and two thirds of the RCP8.5 models (67%) indicate decreases in streamflow in the 2080s relative to the historical period. Models project maximum decreases in streamflow of 36–80% in all water resource regions for all periods and RCPs relative to historical streamflow, and maximum streamflow decreases of up to 20–45% in the 2080s at sites along the Colorado River used for measuring compliance with interstate and international water agreements. Headwaters are projected to experience the greatest declines, with substantial downstream implications. Among these estimates, the streamflows from models forced with RCP8.5 tend to be lower than those forced with RCP4.5. Not all climate models, times, and RCPs project widespread streamflow declines. The most ubiquitous streamflow increases are projected to occur in the 2030s under RCP4.5. Later time periods and enhanced greenhouse gas forcings indicate smaller regions of streamflow increase and lower accumulated streamflows, suggesting that limiting or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations could support future water availability. Although some possible streamflow increases are promising, the modest and spatially limited increases in streamflow projected for later time periods are still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the projected water demand. These results inform the likelihood of future water agreement compliance, and support developing strategies to balance water supply and demand.

Arizona, California, Colorado Idaho, Nevada, New M↗

USGS2017

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2008

Western juniper and ponderosa pine ecotonal climate-growth relationships across landscape gradients in southern Oregon

Forecasts of climate change for the Pacific northwestern United States predict warmer temperatures, increased winter precipitation, and drier summers. Prediction of forest growth responses to these climate fluctuations requires identification of climatic variables limiting tree growth, particularly at limits of free species distributions. We addressed this problem at the pine-woodland ecotone using tree-ring data for western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Loud.) from southern Oregon. Annual growth chronologies for 1950-2000 were developed for each species at 17 locations. Correlation and linear regression of climate-growth relationships revealed that radial growth in both species is highly dependent on October-June precipitation events that recharge growing season soil water. Mean annual radial growth for the nine driest years suggests that annual growth in both species is more sensitive to drought at lower elevations and sites with steeper slopes and sandy or rocky soils. Future increases in winter precipitation could increase productivity in both species at the pine-woodland ecotone. Growth responses, however, will also likely vary across landscape features, and our findings suggest that heightened sensitivity to future drought periods and increased temperatures in the two species will predominantly occur at lower elevation sites with poor water-holding capacities. ?? 2008 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2018

Effects of distribution, behavior, and climate on mule deer survival

Mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus hemionus ) populations in North America are a valuable economic wildlife resource, with the managed harvest of this species reflecting societal values and recreational opportunities in many parts of the western United States. Managing mule deer populations while allowing for harvest requires an understanding of the species’ population dynamics, including the specific factors associated with population change. We conducted a 7-year (2005–2012) study designed to investigate habitat use and survival of mule deer in eastern Oregon, USA. We used known-fate data for 408 adult female radio-collared mule deer to estimate monthly survival rates and to investigate factors that might affect these rates, including seasonal distribution, temporal effects (seasonal, annual, and trends across season and year), movement behavior, and local weather and regional climatic covariates. Variation in survival rates of female mule deer was best explained by an additive effect of migration behavior, differences in survival during the fall migration period compared to the rest of the annual cycle, and precipitation levels on winter ranges of individual deer. Estimates of annual survival were higher for migrants (0.81–0.82), compared to residents (0.76–0.77). Survival was lower for migrants and residents during fall migration (Oct–Nov) and higher amounts of winter precipitation increased survival of both groups. The results of our study suggest that migrating to potentially higher quality summer foraging areas outweighed the cost of traveling through unfamiliar habitats and energy expenditure associated with migration. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Composition and variation of noise recorded at the Yellowknife Seismic Array, 1991-2007

We analyze seismic noise recorded on the 18 short-period, vertical component seismometers of the Yellowknife Seismic Array (YKA). YKA has an aperture of 23 km and is sited on cratonic lithosphere in an area with low cultural noise. These properties make it ideal for studying natural seismic noise at periods of 1-3 s. We calculated frequency-wave number spectra in this band for over 6,000 time windows that were extracted once per day for 17 years (1991-2007). Slowness analysis reveals a rich variety of seismic phases originating from distinct source regions: R g waves from the Great Slave Lake; L g waves from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans; and teleseismic P waves from the north Pacific and equatorial mid-Atlantic regions. The surface wave energy is generated along coastlines, while the body wave energy is generated at least in part in deep-water, pelagic regions. Surface waves tend to dominate at the longer periods and, just as in earthquake seismograms, L g is the most prominent arrival. Although the periods we study are slightly shorter than the classic double-frequency microseismic band of 4-10 s, the noise at YKA has clear seasonal behavior that is consistent with the ocean wave climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporal variation of most of the noise sources can be well fit using just two Fourier components: yearly and biyearly terms that combine to give a fast rise in microseismic power from mid-June through mid-October, followed by a gradual decline. The exception is the R g energy from the Great Slave Lake, which shows a sharp drop in noise power over a 2-week period in November as the lake freezes. The L g noise from the east has a small but statistically significant positive slope, perhaps implying increased ocean wave activity in the North Atlantic over the last 17 years. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2024

Winter is not coming: Evaluating impacts of changing winter conditions on coregonine reproductive phenology

Fishes in northern latitude lakes are at risk from climate-induced warming because the seasonality in water temperature is degrading, which can change ecosystem properties and the phenology of life-history events. Temperature-dependent embryo development models were developed for a group of cold, stenothermic fishes (Salmonidae Coregoninae) to assess the potential impacts of climate-induced changes in water temperature on cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) from two populations in Lake Superior (Apostle Islands [USA] and Thunder Bay [Canada]) and one in Lake Ontario (USA), vendace ( C. albula ) in Lake Southern Konnevesi (Finland), and European whitefish ( C. lavaretus ) in lakes Southern Konnevesi, Constance (Germany), Geneva (France), and Annecy (France). Water temperatures for each study group were simulated and changes in reproductive phenology across historic (1900–2006) and three future climatic-warming scenarios (2007–2099) were investigated. Models predicted that increases in water temperatures are likely to cause delayed spawning, shorter embryo incubation durations, and earlier larval hatching. Relative changes increased as warming scenarios increased in severity and were higher for littoral as compared to pelagic populations. Our simulations demonstrated that slower cooling in the autumn and (or) more rapid warming in spring can translate into substantial changes in the reproductive phenology of coregonines among our study groups. We expect that the changes in reproductive phenology predicted by our models, in the absence of thermal or behavioral adaptation, will have negative implications for population sustainability.

Apostle Islands, Chaumont Bay, Lake Annecy, Lake C↗

USGS2012

Description of the U.S. Geological Survey Geo Data Portal data integration framework

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an open-standard data integration framework for working efficiently and effectively with large collections of climate and other geoscience data. A web interface accesses catalog datasets to find data services. Data resources can then be rendered for mapping and dataset metadata are derived directly from these web services. Algorithm configuration and information needed to retrieve data for processing are passed to a server where all large-volume data access and manipulation takes place. The data integration strategy described here was implemented by leveraging existing free and open source software. Details of the software used are omitted; rather, emphasis is placed on how open-standard web services and data encodings can be used in an architecture that integrates common geographic and atmospheric data.

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗

USGS2021

Impacts of climate change on groundwater availability and spring flows: Observations from the highly productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System

Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.

California↗

USGS2011

Evolution of natural history information in the 21st century – developing an integrated framework for biological and geographical data

Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuarine scale to invasive species and climate change at regional and global scales. To help address research questions across these scales, we provide here a standardized framework for a biogeographical information system containing queriable biological data that allows extraction of information on multiple species, across a variety of spatial scales based on species distributions, natural history attributes and habitat requirements. As scientists shift from research on localized impacts on individual species to regional and global scale threats, macroecological approaches of studying multiple species over broad geographical areas are becoming increasingly important. The standardized framework described here for capturing and integrating biological and geographical data is a critical first step towards addressing these macroecological questions and we urge organizations capturing biogeoinformatics data to consider adopting this framework.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2006

Precipitation history and ecosystem response to multidecadal precipitation variability in the Mojave Desert region, 1893-2001

Precipitation varied substantially in the Mojave Desert through the 20th century in a manner broadly similar to the other warm North American deserts. Episodes of drought and prolonged dry conditions (1893-1904, ca. 1942-1975, and 1999-present) alternated with relatively wet periods (1905-ca. 1941 and ca. 1976-1998), probably because of global-scale climate fluctuations. These are the El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation that affects interannual climate and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that evidently causes decadal-scale variability such as prolonged dry and wet episodes. Studies done in the late 20th century demonstrate that precipitation fluctuations affected populations of perennial vegetation, annuals, and small herbivores. Landscape rephotography reveals that several species, particularly creosote bush, increased in size and density during the ca. 1976-1998 wet period. A brief, intense drought from 1989 to 1991 and the ongoing drought caused widespread mortality of certain species; for example, chenopods and perennial grasses suffered up to 100% mortality. Drought pruning, the shedding of above-ground biomass to reduce carbon allocation, increased substantially during drought. Overall, drought had the greatest influence on the Mojave Desert ecosystem. ?? 2006.

Journal of Arid Environments↗