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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources
USGS2014

A capture-recapture model of amphidromous fish dispersal

Adult movement scale was quantified for two tropical Caribbean diadromous fishes, bigmouth sleeper Gobiomorus dormitor and mountain mullet Agonostomus monticola, using passive integrated transponders (PITs) and radio-telemetry. Large numbers of fishes were tagged in Rio Mameyes, Puerto Rico, U.S.A., with PITs and monitored at three fixed locations over a 2-5 year period to estimate transition probabilities between upper and lower elevations and survival probabilities with a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. A sub-set of fishes were tagged with radio-transmitters and tracked at weekly intervals to estimate fine-scale dispersal. Changes in spatial and temporal distributions of tagged fishes indicated that neither G. dormitor nor A. monticola moved into the lowest, estuarine reaches of Rio Mameyes during two consecutive reproductive periods, thus demonstrating that both species follow an amphidromous, rather than catadromous, migratory strategy. Further, both species were relatively sedentary, with restricted linear ranges. While substantial dispersal of these species occurs at the larval stage during recruitment to fresh water, the results indicate minimal dispersal in spawning adults. Successful conservation of diadromous fauna on tropical islands requires management at both broad basin and localized spatial scales.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2016

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km 2 ) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals ( n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

Conservation Genetics↗
USGS2014

A mapping and monitoring assessment of the Philippines' mangrove forests from 1990 to 2010

Information on the present condition and spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove forests is needed for land-change studies and integrated natural resources planning and management. Although several national mangrove estimates for the Philippines exist, information is unavailable at sufficient spatial and thematic detail for change analysis. Historical and contemporary mangrove distribution maps of the Philippines for 1990 and 2010 were prepared at nominal 30-m spatial resolution using Landsat satellite data. Image classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classification approach. Additionally, decadal land-cover change maps from 1990 to 2010 were prepared to depict changes in mangrove area. Total mangrove area decreased 10.5% from 1990 to 2010. Comparison of estimates produced from this study with selected historical mangrove area estimates revealed that total mangrove area decreased by approximately half (51.8%) from 1918 to 2010. This study provides the most current and reliable data regarding the Philippines mangrove area and spatial distribution and delineates where and when mangrove change has occurred in recent decades. The results from this study are useful for developing conservation strategies, biodiversity loss mitigation efforts, and future monitoring and analysis.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2018

Managing individual nests promotes population recovery of a top predator

Threatened species are managed using diverse conservation tactics implemented at multiple scales ranging from protecting individuals, to populations, to entire species. Individual protection strives to promote recovery at the population‐ or species‐level, although this is seldom evaluated. After decades of widespread declines, bald eagles, Haliaeetus leucocephalus , are recovering throughout their range due to legal protection and pesticide bans. However, like other raptors, their recovery remains threatened by human activities. Bald eagle nests are commonly managed using buffer zones to minimize human disturbance, but the benefits of this practice remain unquantified. Within Voyageurs National Park (VNP), Minnesota, USA, managers have monitored bald eagle populations for over 40 years, and since 1991, have protected at‐risk nests from human disturbance using buffer zones (200 and 400 m radius). We aimed to (1) quantify the recovery of bald eagles in VNP (1973–2016), and (2) provide a first‐ever evaluation of the individual‐ and population‐level effects of managing individual nests. To do so, we developed Bayesian Integrated Population Models combining observations of nest occupancy and reproductive output (metrics commonly collected for raptors) to estimate nest‐level probabilities of occupancy, nest success, and high productivity (producing ≥2 nestlings), as well as population‐level estimates of abundance and growth. The breeding population of bald eagles at VNP increased steadily from <10 pairs in the late 1970s to 48 pairs by 2016. At the nest‐level, management significantly improved occupancy and success. At the population‐level, management led to 8% and 13% increases in nest success and productivity rates, respectively, resulting in a 37% increase in breeding pair abundance. Synthesis and applications . There is a clear need to evaluate how management approaches at multiple scales assist in species recovery. Our study uses an Integrated Population Model to reveal the population‐level benefits of a widely used, individual‐based management action (protecting nests using buffer zones) on a recovering raptor.

Minnesota↗
USGS2018

Development of the Wildlife Adaptation Menu for Resource Managers

The Climate Change Response Framework is an example of a collaborative, cross-boundary approach to create a set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support climate-informed conservation and land management. Historically, this effort has focused on the needs of forest managers and forestry professionals. In recent years, however, there has been increasing demand for science and tools to address climate change adaptation in wildlife management and conservation. Not only do wildlife and resource managers need the best available science, it must also be presented in a usable format with feasible options within the purview of an individual manager. The research team is first completing a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed studies to summarize what wildlife-related management actions currently exist in climate change adaptation. They will then develop and test a “menu” of climate change adaptation actions that are suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems. This Wildlife Adaptation Menu will be modeled off existing adaptation menus for Forestry and Urban Forestry, and it will be designed to be used in conjunction with the Adaptation Workbook . In addition to a menu of adaption strategies and approaches, the scientists will also identify site-level tactics and develop case studies demonstrating the use and implementation of the menu. To ensure that information and tools meet the needs of managers, the team is involving and integrating input from wildlife managers at every step of the process. Managers will be involved in scoping the project, testing the menu, and implementing the menu.

Final Report↗
USGS2024

Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States

In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&R decreases (24%–34% of the 1.16 million km 2 study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&R indicators. New continuous R&R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&R category but where R&R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.

western United States↗
USGS2025

Same view through a different lens: Comparing population trends for North American birds using eBird and the Breeding Bird Survey

Confidently estimating population trends is of vital importance for a wide range of ecological, conservation, and management applications. North America has 2 major data sources for estimating population trends of breeding birds—the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the global participatory science project eBird. Because the surveys differ in protocols, coverage, and data analysis, their trend estimates are expected to vary in magnitude, direction, and/or precision for at least some species and regions. Here, we compare independently derived estimates of population change between 2012 and 2022 for every combination of species and bird conservation region (BCR) covered by both surveys ( n = 5,577 combinations) as well as aggregated across entire ranges or within the U.S. or Canada. Uncertainty was substantial for both surveys, though more prevalent for BBS (81% of credibility intervals for estimates included zero) than eBird (34% of confidence intervals overlapped zero). We found agreement of trend directions between the 2 surveys. Only 1.3% of estimated trends were significant in opposite directions between the 2 surveys for all species/BCR combinations, with the median difference in trend magnitude being –0.02% (BBS minus eBird trend). Correlations between the 2 were strongest for estimates that were graded as being high credibility compared to estimates judged to have medium or low credibility. Both surveys were subject to species, taxonomic, and regional effects that influenced agreement. Overall, we show where trend estimates derived from BBS and eBird agree, explore where they diverge, present several comparisons to assist in interpreting results from both surveys, and inform efforts to integrate information from each.

Ornithological Applications↗
USGS2019

Temporal gamma-diversity meets spatial alpha-diversity in dynamically varying ecosystems

Community measures collected at a single instance or over a short temporal period rarely provide a complete accounting of biological diversity. The gap between such “snapshot” measures of diversity and actual diversity can be especially large in systems that undergo great temporal variation in environmental conditions. To adequately quantify diversity in these temporally varying ecosystems, individual measures of diversity collected throughout the range of environmental variation, i.e., temporal alpha-diversity measures, must be combined to obtain temporal gamma-diversity. Such a time-integrated gamma-diversity measure will be a much closer approximation of a site’s true alpha-diversity and provide a measure better comparable to spatial alpha-diversity measures of sites with lower temporal variation for which a single or a few “snapshot” measures may suffice. We used aquatic-macroinvertebrate community-composition data collected over a 24-year period from a complex of 16 prairie-pothole wetlands to explore the rate that taxa accumulate over time at sites with differing degrees of temporal variation. Our results show that the rate of taxa accumulation over time, i.e., the slope of the species–time relationship, is steeper for wetlands with ponds that frequently dry compared to those with more-permanent ponds. Additionally, we found that a logarithmic function better fit species accumulation data for seasonally ponded wetlands whereas a power function better fit accumulations for permanently and semi-permanently ponded wetlands. Thus, interpretations of ecological diversity measures, and conservation decisions that rely on these interpretations, can be biased if temporal variations in community composition are not adequately represented.

North Dakota↗
USGS2023

Striped bass exploitation in tailwater habitats of east-central Oklahoma

Striped Bass (Morone saxatilis) is naturally anadromous, but a few land-locked populations have been documented that are self-sustaining, including fish in the Arkansas River, Oklahoma. This rare population is the source of brood stock for the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation hatcheries and is an important sportfish stock. Striped Bass often congregate in tailwater habitats, where anecdotal observations indicate anglers can harvest numerous fish daily. This suggests the need to evaluate the sustainability of harvest in these locations. It is unknown what portion of fish from the Arkansas River population use tailwater habitats or the timing and duration of use. The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine size structure , abundance, and total mortality rate of Striped Bass in the tailwaters of Tenkiller Lake and Lake Eufaula; 2) determine the extent and timing of immigration and emigration of Striped Bass in tailwater habitats to determine the potential for overharvest when they congregate in tailwater areas; 3) estimate delayed hooking mortality of Striped Bass in spring and summer; and 4) using the above data and modeling simulations, determine the potential for growth overfishing of Striped Bass in the tailwater reaches. We sampled 2,730 Striped Bass using boat electrofishing and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to estimate demographic data using a capture-recapture model. A subset of these Striped Bass was tagged with angler reward tags (internal anchor tags, n = 681) and dual technology acoustic-radio telemetry tags (n = 111) to estimate exploitation and track movements, respectively. Anglers returned 116 tags from 2020 to 2022; and our angler reporting rate was estimated to be 14.3%. Annual harvest mortality is minimally 7% (unadjusted for reporting rate) but could be as high as 42% (i.e., adjusting for compliance; but this exceeds the measured total mortality rate (34.3%) so true exploitation is probably 7–34.3%). Our abundance estimates for Striped Bass varied seasonally (ranging from 782 to 38,597 seasonally) and had a high level of uncertainty likely due to relatively low recapture rates. Additionally, our results indicated that Striped Bass exhibited a strong fidelity to their respective habitats within seasons, with fidelity probabilities ranging from 0.98 to 1.00. Movement among segments was common among seasons, indicating these localized populations mix with a larger population annually. Striped Bass were primarily in tailwater habitats during summer. Delayed hooking mortality data were collected in summer 2022. Due to habitat conditions that year, angling catch rates were low. Twenty-nine Striped Bass were tagged, and only eight Striped Bass remained tagged long enough to be tracked at least one day. The total time tracked for these eight fish was between one and three days. There were no confirmed mortalities, treatment, or control. Because of the low sample size, literature values for delayed hooking mortality were also used to supplement field data in the models. The yield-per-recruit model indicated exploitation at 30% or higher leads to recruitment overfishing. A 600 mm minimum TL regulation and 25–30% exploitation rate achieve maximum yield (954 kg/1,000 recruits). Maximum yield related to an average size at harvest of 718-mm TL; thus, growth overfishing occurs for any regulation where average size of harvest is smaller than 718 mm (which the model predicted would occur for any minimum length < 600, and for minimum length = 600 if exploitation was > 30%, it never occurred with minimum length requirements > 650). Increasing the minimum length regulation improves size structure, but a maximum length regulation had minimal effect unless it was implemented at a sufficiently small size (i.e., < 700 mm). Although catch-and-release mortality can be relatively high at times in the literature, according to our model, it appears to have a small effect on size structure, except when exploitation rates are > 50% and a restrictive maximum size regulation (< 800 mm) is used. The current population appears sustainable, especially considering the annual mixing dynamics and apparently large population (though we see a lot of uncertainty in the population estimates). However, modeling indicates that if enhancing size structure is an agency priority, then implementing more restrictive regulations could be advantageous.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2020

Artificial nightlight alters the predator-prey dynamics of an apex carnivore

Artificial nightlight is increasingly recognized as an important environmental disturbance that influences the habitats and fitness of numerous species. However, its effects on wide‐ranging vertebrates and their interactions remain unclear. Light pollution has the potential to amplify land‐use change, and as such, answering the question of how this sensory stimulant affects behavior and habitat use of species valued for their ecological roles and economic impacts is critical for conservation and land‐use planning. Here, we combined satellite‐derived estimates of light pollution, with GPS‐data from cougars Puma concolor (n = 56), mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (n = 263) and locations of cougar‐killed deer (n = 1562 carcasses), to assess the effects of light exposure on mammal behavior and predator–prey relationships across wildland–urban gradients in the southwestern United States. Our results indicate that deer used the anthropogenic environments to access forage and were more active at night than their wildland conspecifics. Despite higher nightlight levels, cougars killed deer at the wildland–urban interface, but hunted them in the relatively darkest locations. Light had the greatest effect of all covariates on where cougars killed deer at the wildland–urban interface. Both species exhibited functional responses to light pollution at fine scales; individual cougars and deer with less light exposure increasingly avoided illuminated areas when exposed to greater radiance, whereas deer living in the wildland–urban interface selected elevated light levels. We conclude that integrating estimates of light pollution into ecological studies provides crucial insights into how the dynamic human footprint can alter animal behavior and ecosystem function across spatial scales.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New ↗
USGS2026

Invasive carps versus native fish: A first-pass trait-based index for assessing competition threats.

Introduction: Bigheaded carp ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) are invasive fish in the Mississippi River basin. Their rapid proliferation has raised concerns about exploitative competition with native fishes, with consequences that remain incompletely understood. We aimed to identify native species most susceptible to competition based on overlap with bigheaded carp in dietary and habitat traits. Methods: We used an established fish traits database to quantify dietary and habitat overlap between bigheaded carp and 100 native fish species. We then integrated dietary and habitat overlap into a composite competition index. Results: Dietary similarity with the native assemblage exceeded habitat similarity, suggesting that while competition with some native species may occur, it may often be limited by spatial separation. Dietary and habitat similarity coefficients were not correlated, indicating that strong dietary overlap did not necessarily coincide with similar habitat use (and vice versa). Approximately 20% of species were classified as high competition risk. The highest-risk species included bigmouth buffalo ( Ictiobus cyprinellus ), threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ), black redhorse ( Moxostoma duquesnii ), bluntnose minnow ( Pimephales notatus ), highfin carpsucker ( Carpiodes velifer ), and gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ). Discussion: Although trait-based predictions have limitations, our results are consistent with empirically documented interactions and provide a rapid, first-pass assessment of potential competitive vulnerability. Dietary overlap, habitat overlap, and the derived competition index offer actionable decision-support for managing potential competition between bigheaded carp and native species. We included ten practical recommendations to translate predictions into conservation and management actions.

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, So↗
USGS2006

Educating veterinarians for careers in free-ranging wildlife medicine and ecosystem health

In the last 10 years, the field of zoological medicine has seen an expansive broadening into the arenas of free-ranging wildlife, conservation medicine, and ecosystem health. During the spring/summer of 2005, we prepared and disseminated a survey designed to identify training and educational needs for individuals entering the wildlife medicine and ecosystem health fields. Our data revealed that few wildlife veterinarians believe that the training they received in veterinary school adequately prepared them to acquire and succeed in their field. Wildlife veterinarians and their employers ranked mentorship with an experienced wildlife veterinarian, training in leadership and communication, courses and externships in wildlife health, and additional formal training beyond the veterinary degree as important in preparation for success. Employers, wildlife veterinarians, and job seekers alike reported that understanding and maintaining ecosystem health is a key component of the wildlife veterinarian's job description, as it is critical to protecting animal health, including human health. Today's wildlife veterinarians are a new type of transdisciplinary professional; they practice medicine in their communities and hold titles in every level of government and academia. It is time that we integrate ecosystem health into our curricula to nurture and enhance an expansive way of looking at veterinary medicine and to ensure that veterinary graduates are prepared to excel in this new and complex world, in which the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and people are interdependent.

Journal of Veterinary Medical Education↗
USGS2023

Using state-and-transition simulation models to scope post-fire success in restoring greater sage-grouse habitat

Wildfires are increasingly modifying wildlife habitat in the western United States and managers need ways to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. We developed a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) to project post-fire revegetation and the potential for sage-grouse habitat restoration in sagebrush ecosystems. The model included annual fires, annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, and projected annual vegetation growth caused by natural regeneration as well as sagebrush seeding and planting. We cross-referenced resulting vegetation maps with greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat needs and evaluated trajectories of potential habitat at three Priority Areas for Conservation in the Great Basin. We compared outcomes among different types of revegetation actions (natural regeneration, seeding, planting), treatment durations, and treatment area sizes. In all scenarios, sagebrush cover was generally insufficient to meet sage-grouse needs for at least a decade post-fire, and the best habitat classes declined or remained at low proportions of landscapes for >50 years post-fire. Under current fire patterns, the pace of habitat restoration is likely to lag behind losses from wildfires. Our results indicate additional efforts beyond sagebrush revegetation actions (e.g., fire suppression, invasive grass treatment) will likely be necessary to maintain and restore areas to meet sage-grouse habitat needs in burned landscapes. Our results also underscore the need for broad-scale habitat restoration strategies that expand the ability to reestablish sagebrush in large, burned areas, as well as strategies for defining which areas should be prioritized for revegetation within the biome. Our landscape models and resulting vegetation maps can be integrated with other restoration prioritization or wildlife monitoring tools that support land manager decision-making. By gauging potential benefits of restoration decisions, our approach can provide information to aid choices on where to invest time, money, and effort and how best to mitigate losses and plan long-term restoration and recovery for landscapes across the sagebrush biome.

Great Basin↗
USGS2016

Life history characteristics and vital rates of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout in two headwater basins

The Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri is native to the Rocky Mountains and has declined in abundance and distribution as a result of habitat degradation and introduced salmonid species. Many of its remaining strongholds are in headwater basins with minimal human disturbances. Understanding the life histories, vital rates, and behaviors of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout within headwater stream networks remains limited yet is critical for effective management and conservation. We estimated annual relative growth in length and weight, annual survival rates, and movement patterns of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout from three tributaries of Spread Creek, Wyoming, and two tributaries of Shields River, Montana, from 2011 through 2013 using PIT tag antennas within a mark–recapture framework. Mean annual growth rates varied among tributaries and size-classes, but were slow compared with populations of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout from large, low-elevation streams. Survival rates were relatively high compared with those of other Cutthroat Trout subspecies, but we found an inverse relationship between survival and size, a pattern contrary to what has been reported for Cutthroat Trout in large streams. Mean annual survival rates ranged from 0.32 (SE = 0.04) to 0.68 (SE = 0.05) in the Spread Creek basin and from 0.30 (SE = 0.07) to 0.69 (SE = 0.10) in the Shields River basin. Downstream movements from tributaries were substantial, with as much as 26.5% of a tagging cohort leaving over the course of the study. Integrating our growth, survival, and movement results demonstrates the importance of considering strategies to enhance headwater stream habitats and highlights the importance of connectivity with larger stream networks.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2013

Ecological thresholds as a basis for defining management triggers for National Park Service vital signs: case studies for dryland ecosystems

Threshold concepts are used in research and management of ecological systems to describe and interpret abrupt and persistent reorganization of ecosystem properties (Walker and Meyers, 2004; Groffman and others, 2006). Abrupt change, referred to as a threshold crossing, and the progression of reorganization can be triggered by one or more interactive disturbances such as land-use activities and climatic events (Paine and others, 1998). Threshold crossings occur when feedback mechanisms that typically absorb forces of change are replaced with those that promote development of alternative equilibria or states (Suding and others, 2004; Walker and Meyers, 2004; Briske and others, 2008). The alternative states that emerge from a threshold crossing vary and often exhibit reduced ecological integrity and value in terms of management goals relative to the original or reference system. Alternative stable states with some limited residual properties of the original system may develop along the progression after a crossing; an eventual outcome may be the complete loss of pre-threshold properties of the original ecosystem. Reverting to the more desirable reference state through ecological restoration becomes increasingly difficult and expensive along the progression gradient and may eventually become impossible. Ecological threshold concepts have been applied as a heuristic framework and to aid in the management of rangelands (Bestelmeyer, 2006; Briske and others, 2006, 2008), aquatic (Scheffer and others, 1993; Rapport and Whitford 1999), riparian (Stringham and others, 2001; Scott and others, 2005), and forested ecosystems (Allen and others, 2002; Digiovinazzo and others, 2010). These concepts are also topical in ecological restoration (Hobbs and Norton 1996; Whisenant 1999; Suding and others, 2004; King and Hobbs, 2006) and ecosystem sustainability (Herrick, 2000; Chapin and others, 1996; Davenport and others, 1998). Achieving conservation management goals requires the protection of resources within the range of desired conditions (Cook and others, 2010). The goal of conservation management for natural resources in the U.S. National Park System is to maintain native species and habitat unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations. Achieving this goal requires, in part, early detection of system change and timely implementation of remediation. The recent National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring program (NPS I&M) was established to provide early warning of declining ecosystem conditions relative to a desired native or reference system (Fancy and others, 2009). To be an effective tool for resource protection, monitoring must be designed to alert managers of impending thresholds so that preventive actions can be taken. This requires an understanding of the ecosystem attributes and processes associated with threshold-type behavior; how these attributes and processes become degraded; and how risks of degradation vary among ecosystems and in relation to environmental factors such as soil properties, climatic conditions, and exposure to stressors. In general, the utility of the threshold concept for long-term monitoring depends on the ability of scientists and managers to detect, predict, and prevent the occurrence of threshold crossings associated with persistent, undesirable shifts among ecosystem states (Briske and others, 2006). Because of the scientific challenges associated with understanding these factors, the application of threshold concepts to monitoring designs has been very limited to date (Groffman and others, 2006). As a case in point, the monitoring efforts across the 32 NPS I&M networks were largely designed with the knowledge that they would not be used to their full potential until the development of a systematic method for understanding threshold dynamics and methods for estimating key attributes of threshold crossings. This report describes and demonstrates a generalized approach that we implemented to formalize understanding and estimating of threshold dynamics for terrestrial dryland ecosystems in national parks of the Colorado Plateau. We provide a structured approach to identify and describe degradation processes associated with threshold behavior and to estimate indicator levels that characterize the point at which a threshold crossing has occurred or is imminent (tipping points) or points where investigative or preventive management action should be triggered (assessment points). We illustrate this method for several case studies in national parks included in the Northern and Southern Colorado Plateau NPS I&M networks, where historical livestock grazing, climatic change, and invasive species are key agents of change. The approaches developed in these case studies are intended to enhance the design, effectiveness, and management-relevance of monitoring efforts in support of conservation management in dryland systems. They specifically enhance National Park Service (NPS) capacity for protecting park resources on the Colorado Plateau but have applicability to monitoring and conservation management of dryland ecosystems worldwide.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2018

Updated statewide abundance estimates for the Florida manatee

Knowing how many manatees live in Florida is critical for conservation and management of this threatened species. Martin et al. (2015) flew aerial surveys in 2011–2012 and estimated abundance in those years using advanced techniques that incorporated multiple data sources. We flew additional aerial surveys in 2015–2016 to count manatees and again applied advanced statistical techniques to estimate their abundance. We also made several methodological advances over the earlier work, including accounting for how sea state (water surface conditions) and synchronous surfacing behavior affect the availability of manatees to be detected and incorporating all parts of Florida in the area of inference. We estimate that the number of manatees in Florida in 2015–2016 was 8,810 (95% Bayesian credible interval 7,520–10,280), of which 4,810 (3,820–6,010) were on the west coast of Florida and 4,000 (3,240–4,910) were on the east coast. These estimates and associated uncertainty, in addition to being of immediate value to wildlife managers, are essential new data for incorporation into integrated population models and population viability analyses.

Florida↗
USGS2023

2021–2022 Statewide Abundance Estimates for the Florida Manatee

Knowing the population size of Florida manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) is critical for conservation and management of this threatened species. Martin et al. (2015) and Hostetler et al. (2018) applied statistical models that incorporated multiple data sources to estimate the statewide abundance of manatees from aerial surveys f lown in 2011–2012 and 2015–2016. We conducted additional aerial surveys in 2021–2022 and applied similar models to provide an updated abundance estimate. This report serves as an update to Hostetler et al. (2018), with most of the text and methodology adapted from the previous report, and provides updated population estimates based on the newly available data. We estimate that the number of manatees in Florida in 2021–2022 was 9,790 (95% Bayesian credible interval 8,350–11,730), of which 4,630 (3,960–5,420) were on the west coast of Florida and 5,160 (3,940–6,980) were on the east coast. These estimates and the associated uncertainty, in addition to being of immediate value to wildlife managers, are essential new data for incorporation into integrated population models and population viability analyses. We also provide context for interpreting the new estimates and perspectives for future modeling improvements.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Managing ecosystems with resist-accept-direct (RAD)

In recent years considerable interest has been generated in a new approach known as resist – accept – direct , or RAD, for managing ecosystems in the face of climate change. Under RAD, strategic responses to climate change are described in terms of three broad categories: resisting climate transformation, accepting the transformation and continuing to manage as best one can, and directing the transformed system toward novel ecological conditions. In particular, the potential for integrating RAD and adaptive management has been broadly considered, though absent a decision-making framework needed for implementation. We propose a hierarchical decision scheme for RAD that accounts for strategy selection among the three RAD options, as well as adaptive decision making within each option. We use stochastic models and uncertainties about ecosystem processes to account for the dynamics of climate-transformed ecosystems, and show how these features can be used to inform RAD strategies. Operationally, the approach involves decisions at two levels: one level involves choosing a policy for each strategy, and the second level involves deciding which strategy has the greatest policy value. The structure described here extends recent work in climate change adaptation, by including Markovian decisions under climate change, strategy-specific policies, and value functions for assessing and selecting RAD strategies. We provide a hierarchical accounting of decisions and responses, and develop rules for the timing of those decisions. Combining RAD and adaptive management can help to organize thinking about ecological conservation under climate change, and focus attention on mechanisms for making decisions. We believe the structure presented here can facilitate conservation efforts under the non-stationary climate conditions we are sure to face for the foreseeable future.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗