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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and non-anadromous bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

Columbia River Basin↗
USGS2022

Reducing uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes: A decision-path approach

Climate change will continue to be an important consideration for conservation practitioners. However, uncertainty in identifying appropriate management strategies, particularly for understudied species and regions, constrains the implementation of science-based solutions and adaptation strategies. Here, we share a decision-path approach to reduce uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes to inform conservation and adaptation planning. With the Fish and Climate Change database (FiCli), a comprehensive, online, public database of peer-reviewed literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fishes, users can identify relevant studies and associated management recommendations via geographic regions, response types (i.e., fish assemblage dynamics, demographic, distributional, evolutionary, phenological), fish taxa, and traits (e.g., thermal guilds, feeding type, parental care, habitat type) and use a suite of summary tools to make more informed decisions. For both data-rich and data-poor scenarios, we demonstrate that this approach can reduce uncertainty in understanding climate change responses. Using thermal sensitivity as an example, we also establish the utility of FiCli database to address other user-defined, management-relevant questions via supplementary analyses. This decision-path approach can be applied to rapid assessments, management decisions, and policy development and may serve as a model for other conservation decision-making processes.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2017

Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental conditions when inferring the dynamics of migratory species.

Illinois↗
USGS2021

The climate envelope of Alaska’s northern treelines: Implications for controlling factors and future treeline advance

Understanding the key mechanisms that control northern treelines is important to accurately predict biome shifts and terrestrial feedbacks to climate. At a global scale, it has long been observed that elevational and latitudinal treelines occur at similar mean growing season air temperature (GSAT) isotherms, inspiring the growth limitation hypothesis (GLH) that cold GSAT limits aboveground growth of treeline trees, with mean treeline GSAT ~6–7°C. Treelines with mean GSAT warmer than 6–7°C may indicate other limiting factors. Many treelines globally are not advancing despite warming, and other climate variables are rarely considered at broad scales. Our goals were to test whether current boreal treelines in northern Alaska correspond with the GLH isotherm, determine which environmental factors are most predictive of treeline presence, and identify areas beyond the current treeline where advance is most likely. We digitized ~12 400 km of treelines (>26 K points) and computed seasonal climate variables across northern Alaska. We then built a generalized additive model predicting treeline presence to identify key factors determining treeline. Two metrics of mean GSAT at Alaska's northern treelines were consistently warmer than the 6–7°C isotherm (means of 8.5°C and 9.3°C), indicating that direct physiological limitation from low GSAT is unlikely to explain the position of treelines in northern Alaska. Our final model included cumulative growing degree-days, near-surface (≤1 m) permafrost probability and growing season total precipitation, which together may represent the importance of soil temperature. Our results indicate that mean GSAT may not be the primary driver of treeline in northern Alaska or that its effect is mediated by other more proximate, and possibly non-climatic, controls. Our model predicts treeline potential in several areas beyond current treelines, pointing to possible routes of treeline advance if unconstrained by non-climatic factors.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change

Many organisms leave evidence of their former occurrence, such as scat, abandoned burrows, middens, ancient eDNA or fossils, which indicate areas from which a species has since disappeared. However, combining this evidence with contemporary occurrences within a single modeling framework remains challenging. Traditional binary species-distribution modeling reduces occurrence to two temporally coarse states (present/absent), so thus cannot leverage the information inherent in temporal sequences of evidence of past occurrence. In contrast, ordinal modeling can use the natural time-varying order of states (e.g. never occupied versus previously occupied versus currently occupied) to provide greater insights into range shifts. We demonstrate the power of ordinal modeling for identifying the major influences of biogeographic and climatic variables on current and past occupancy of the American pika Ochotona princeps , a climate-sensitive mammal. Sampling over five years across the species' southernmost, warm-edge range limit, we tested the effects of these variables at 570 habitat patches where occurrence was classified either as binary or ordinal. The two analyses produced different top models and predictors – ordinal modeling highlighted chronic cold as the most-important predictor of occurrence, whereas binary modeling indicated primacy of average summer-long temperatures. Colder wintertime temperatures were associated in ordinal models with higher likelihood of occurrence, which we hypothesize reflect longer retention of insulative and meltwater-provisioning snowpacks. Our binary results mirrored those of other past pika investigations employing binary analysis, wherein warmer temperatures decrease likelihood of occurrence. Because both ordinal- and binary-analysis top models included climatic and biogeographic factors, results constitute important considerations for climate-adaptation planning. Cross-time evidences of species occurrences remain underutilized for assessing responses to climate change. Compared to multi-state occupancy modeling, which presumes all states occur in the same time period, ordinal models enable use of historical evidence of species' occurrence to identify factors driving species' distributions more finely across time.

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g −1 day −1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g −1 day −1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g −1 day −1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g −1 day −1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗
USGS2022

Using landscape genomics to delineate future adaptive potential for climate change in the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus)

An essential goal in conservation biology is delineating population units that maximize the probability of species persisting into the future and adapting to future environmental change. However, future-facing conservation concerns are often addressed using retrospective patterns that could be irrelevant. We recommend a novel landscape genomics framework for delineating future “Geminate Evolutionary Units” (GEUs) in a focal species: (1) identify loci under environmental selection, (2) model and map adaptive conservation units that may spawn future lineages, (3) forecast relative selection pressures on each future lineage, and (4) estimate their fitness and likelihood of persistence using geo-genomic simulations. Using this process, we delineated conservation units for the Yosemite toad ( Anaxyrus canorus ), a U.S. federally threatened species that is highly vulnerable to climate change. We used a genome-wide dataset, redundancy analysis, and Bayesian association methods to identify 24 candidate loci responding to climatic selection ( R 2 ranging from 0.09 to 0.52), after controlling for demographic structure. Candidate loci included genes such as MAP3K5, involved in cellular response to environmental change. We then forecasted future genomic response to climate change using the multivariate machine learning algorithm Gradient Forests. Based on all available evidence, we found three GEUs in Yosemite National Park, reflecting contrasting adaptive optima: YF-North (high winter snowpack with moderate summer rainfall), YF-East (low to moderate snowpack with high summer rainfall), and YF-Low-Elevation (low snowpack and rainfall). Simulations under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario suggest that the species will decline by 29% over 90 years, but the highly diverse YF-East lineage will be least impacted for two reasons: (1) geographically it will be sheltered from the largest climatic selection pressures, and (2) its standing genetic diversity will promote a faster adaptive response. Our approach provides a comprehensive strategy for protecting imperiled non-model species with genomic data alone and has wide applicability to other declining species.

California↗
USGS2025

Ice Age biogeography corresponds with current climate vulnerability of freshwater fishes

1. Both local environmental factors and historical biogeography shape ecological communities, but determining which historical biogeographical patterns correspond with contemporary climate vulnerability is an underused conservation method. The historical colonization patterns of freshwater fishes following the Pleistocene (“Ice Age”) glaciations offers an ideal model for comparing historical biogeography and climate-change vulnerability. 2. We used current thermal niches and future stream-temperature projections to estimate the climate vulnerability of 29 Great Plains and Rocky Mountain fishes that we classified as either early or late colonists of the region in the wake of glacial retreat (~19,000 years ago). 3. Ninety-three percent of the most vulnerable species were amongst the earliest colonists of the region and we consider them “postglacial-pioneer species”. Median predicted site loss (number of historically occupied sites predicted to become too warm by end-of-century) was 0% for late colonizing species and 33% for early colonizing species. 4. We provide empirical evidence that postglacial-pioneer fishes are uniquely vulnerable to climate change, and we suggest this may apply to many taxa from formerly glaciated regions. More broadly, we demonstrate that evaluating the relationship between current species-environment patterns and historical biogeography may be a fruitful avenue for future climate change and conservation research.

North America↗
USGS2013

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2014

Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States

The influence of climate on forest change during the past century in the eastern United States was evaluated in a recent paper (Nowacki & Abrams, 2014 ) that centers on an increase in ‘highly competitive mesophytic hardwoods’ (Nowacki & Abrams, 2008 ) and a concomitant decrease in the more xerophytic Quercus species. Nowacki & Abrams ( 2014 ) concluded that climate change has not contributed significantly to observed changes in forest composition. However, the authors restrict their focus to a single element of climate: increasing temperature since the end of the Little Ice Age ca. 150 years ago. In their study, species were binned into four classifications (e.g., Acer saccharum – ‘cool-adapted’, Acer rubrum – ‘warm-adapted’) based on average annual temperature within each species range in the United States, reducing the multifaceted character of climate into a single, categorical measure. The broad temperature classes not only veil the many biologically relevant aspects of temperature (e.g., seasonal and extreme temperatures) but they may also mask other influences, both climatic (e.g., moisture sensitivity) and nonclimatic (e.g., competition).

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2016

Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snowmelt-driven alpine streams. Though progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs. Two aquatic insects – the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana and the glacier stonefly Zapada glacier – were recently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced habitat loss. Using a large dataset (272 streams, 482 total sites) with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit L. tumana and Z. glacier across the northern Rocky Mountains. Lednia tumana was detected in 113 streams (175 sites) within Glacier National Park (GNP) and surrounding areas. The probability of L. tumana occurrence increased with cold stream temperatures and close proximity to glaciers and permanent snowfields. Similarly, densities of L. tumana declined with increasing distance from stream source. Zapada glacier was only detected in 10 streams (20 sites), six in GNP and four in mountain ranges up to ~600 km southwest. Our results show that both L. tumana and Z. glacier inhabit an extremely narrow distribution, restricted to short sections of cold, alpine streams often below glaciers predicted to disappear over the next two decades. Climate warming-induced glacier and snow loss clearly imperils the persistence of L. tumana and Z. glacier throughout their ranges, highlighting the role of mountaintop aquatic invertebrates as sentinels of climate change in mid-latitude regions.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Climate and plant controls on soil organic matter in coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems on Earth. Long‐term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding of environmental controls on wetland SOM. Here, we investigated the influence of four soil formation factors: climate, biota, parent materials, and topography. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, we collected wetland plant and soil data across elevation and zonation gradients within ten estuaries that span broad temperature and precipitation gradients. Our results highlight the importance of climate‐plant controls and indicate that the influence of elevation is scale and location dependent. Coastal wetland plants are sensitive to climate change; small changes in temperature or precipitation can transform coastal wetland plant communities. Across the region, SOM was greatest in mangrove forests and in salt marshes dominated by graminoid plants. SOM was lower in salt flats that lacked vascular plants and in salt marshes dominated by succulent plants. We quantified strong relationships between precipitation, salinity, plant productivity, and SOM. Low precipitation leads to high salinity, which limits plant productivity and appears to constrain SOM accumulation. Our analyses use data from the Gulf of Mexico, but our results can be related to coastal wetlands across the globe and provide a foundation for predicting the ecological effects of future reductions in precipitation and freshwater availability. Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that are SOM dependent and highly vulnerable to climate change. Collectively, our results indicate that future changes in SOM and plant productivity, regulated by cascading effects of precipitation on freshwater availability and salinity, could impact wetland stability and affect the supply of some wetland ecosystem services.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2023

Shrinking body size and climate warming: Many freshwater salmonids do not follow the rule

Declining body size is believed to be a universal response to climate warming and has been documented in numerous studies of marine and anadromous fishes. The Salmonidae are a family of coldwater fishes considered to be among the most sensitive species to climate warming; however, whether the shrinking body size response holds true for freshwater salmonids has yet to be examined at a broad spatial scale. We compiled observations of individual fish lengths from long-term surveys across the Northern Hemisphere for 12 species of freshwater salmonids and used linear mixed models to test for spatial and temporal trends in body size (fish length) spanning recent decades. Contrary to expectations, we found a significant increase in length overall but with high variability in trends among populations and species. More than two-thirds of the populations we examined increased in length over time. Secondary regressions revealed larger-bodied populations are experiencing greater increases in length than smaller-bodied populations. Mean water temperature was weakly predictive of changes in body length but overall minimal influences of environmental variables suggest that it is difficult to predict an organism's response to changing temperatures by solely looking at climatic factors. Our results suggest that declining body size is not universal, and the response of fishes to climate change may be largely influenced by local factors. It is important to know that we cannot assume the effects of climate change are predictable and negative at a large spatial scale.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Aim Conservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change. Location Conterminous U.S.A. Time period 1977–2014. Major taxa studied Passerine birds. Methods We estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c . 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size. Results Species distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species. Main conclusions Models failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and frameworks continue to be refined, performance assessments and validation efforts should focus on the measures of risk and vulnerability useful for decision-making.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2010

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2007

Climatic fluctuations and forecasting of streamflow in the lower Colorado River Basin

Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25- to 30-year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R 2 value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R2 value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2024

Projected changes in mangrove distribution and vegetation structure under climate change in the southeastern United States

Aim The climate change-induced transition from grass-dominated marshes to woody-plant-dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of future changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structural properties due to warming winters. Location Southeastern United States. Time Period Recent (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100). Major Taxa Studied Coastal wetland vegetation. Methods We estimated changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structure using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981–2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071–2100. We quantified potential changes in mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenarios (SSPs; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively. Results Our analyses indicate that mangrove presence and relative abundance will dramatically increase in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States, particularly under the high emissions scenario. Because of the higher stature of mangroves relative to salt marsh vegetation, this expansion will cause a transformative change in coastal wetland vegetation height and aboveground biomass in many areas. However, along the arid southern Texas coast, low precipitation and high salinities are expected to constrain mangrove expansion and growth. Main Conclusions Our results show where and to what extent climate change, in the form of winter temperature warming, is projected to enable the transition from shorter, grass-dominated salt marshes to taller, woody plant-dominated mangrove forests in the southeastern United States, with consequent impacts on ecosystem goods and services.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2016

Climate drives shifts in grass reproductive phenology across the western USA

The capacity of grass species to alter their reproductive timing across space and through time can indicate their ability to cope with environmental variability and help predict their future performance under climate change. We determined the long-term (1895–2013) relationship between flowering times of grass species and climate in space and time using herbarium records across ecoregions of the western USA. There was widespread concordance of C 3 grasses accelerating flowering time and general delays for C 4 grasses with increasing mean annual temperature, with the largest changes for annuals and individuals occurring in more northerly, wetter ecoregions. Flowering time was delayed for most grass species with increasing mean annual precipitation across space, while phenology–precipitation relationships through time were more mixed. Our results suggest that the phenology of most grass species has the capacity to respond to increases in temperature and altered precipitation expected with climate change, but weak relationships for some species in time suggest that climate tracking via migration or adaptation may be required. Divergence in phenological responses among grass functional types, species, and ecoregions suggests that climate change will have unequal effects across the western USA.

New Phytologist↗