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USGS2025

Integrating hunter dynamics and waterfowl dynamics to inform harvest management

The successful conservation and management of North American waterfowl relies upon an adaptive harvest management framework that accounts for changes in the system state and critical uncertainties related to the dynamics of waterfowl populations and habitats. Increasing recognition of the importance of the human dimensions of the harvest process, particularly those related to hunters, has motivated calls for the integration of social objectives into waterfowl conservation programs and decision making. We introduce a framework for modeling the dynamics of hunter populations and behavior alongside those of waterfowl populations. Using Bayesian estimation, we fit a dynamic state space model to observational data from the Mid-Continent mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) system over a 20-year period and estimated parameter values for the relative effects of a set of hypothesized drivers of hunter recruitment, retention, reactivation, participation, and success rates. We then made projections across 3 future scenarios to examine the continuation of current trends, the potential effects of a shift to a moderate regulatory framework as informed by expert elicitation, and increased hunter recruitment to maintain a stable hunter population. We found that a theoretical stable state exists for Mid-Continent mallard and hunter populations but that the influence of broader sociocultural shifts and increasing hunter mortality from an aging base pose significant challenges for efforts to stabilize the ongoing decline of active hunter numbers, even under favorable regulatory conditions. This modeling framework and results from it can be used to inform decision processes in the management of game populations that seek to include social objectives and assess the potential trade-offs of prioritizing across social and ecological objectives. We emphasize the need for focused human dimensions expertise throughout the process of fully integrating goals for waterfowl populations, habitats, and people in waterfowl conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2023

Sediment sources and connectivity linked to hydrologic pathways and geomorphic processes: A conceptual model to specify sediment sources and pathways through space and time

Sediment connectivity is a framework for transfer and storage of sediment among different geomorphic compartments across upland and channel network of the catchment sediment cascade. Sediment connectivity and dysconnectivity (i.e., source delivery and storage processes) are linked to the water cycle and hydrologic systems with the associated multiscale interactions with climate, soil, topography, ecology, and landuse/landcover under natural variability and human intervention. We review the sediment connectivity concept and frameworks developed in the last few decades to examine and quantify water and sediment transfer in catchment systems. Past conceptual models of connectivity have attempted to integrate multiple processes into sediment domain, including geomorphic, hydrologic, and ecological processes (i.e., “holistic approach to connectivity”). In particular, multiple studies highlight the importance of sediment and water interaction in defining landscape connectivity. There are also efforts to quantify the topographic controls on sediment connectivity, in the advent of increasingly high-resolution digital terrain models. More recent modeling efforts have integrated structural and functional connectivity through coupling topographic information with hydrologic simulation models. Though this recent modeling development is encouraging, a comprehensive sediment connectivity framework that integrates geomorphic and hydrologic processes across spatiotemporal scales is yet to be conceived. Such an effort will require understanding the governing hydrologic and geomorphic processes that control sediment source, storage, and transport. A conceptual model is proposed to describe dominant hydrologic-sediment connectivity regimes through spatial-temporal feedbacks between hydrologic processes (rainfall, flow routing, and water residence time) and geomorphic drivers (upland soil erosion and deposition, and geomorphic channel erosion and deposition response). Recent advancements in landscape monitoring techniques using geochemical tracers, remote-sensing, increasing availability of hydrologic monitoring data, and the integration of various analytic methods (e.g., isotopic hydrograph separation, stormflow concentration-discharge, hysteretic behavior analysis) have the potential to broaden the spatial and temporal scales of geomorphic observations and understanding of landscape sediment connectivity. Using the conceptual model as a “thinking” space, we examine sediment and hydrologic interactions in real world examples of watershed studies using multiple lines of evidence and modeling techniques.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Low-level copper exposures increase visibility and vulnerability of juvenile coho salmon to cutthroat trout predators

Copper contamination in surface waters is common in watersheds with mining activities or agricultural, industrial, commercial, and residential human land uses. This widespread pollutant is neurotoxic to the chemosensory systems of fish and other aquatic species. Among Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.), copper-induced olfactory impairment has previously been shown to disrupt behaviors reliant on a functioning sense of smell. For juvenile coho salmon (O. kisutch), this includes predator avoidance behaviors triggered by a chemical alarm cue (conspecific skin extract). However, the survival consequences of this sublethal neurobehavioral toxicity have not been explored. In the present study juvenile coho were exposed to low levels of dissolved copper (5-20 microg/L for 3 h) and then presented with cues signaling the proximity of a predator. Unexposed coho showed a sharp reduction in swimming activity in response to both conspecific skin extract and the upstream presence of a cutthroat trout predator (O. clarki clarki) previously fed juvenile coho. This alarm response was absent in prey fish that were exposed to copper. Moreover, cutthroat trout were more effective predators on copper-exposed coho during predation trials, as measured by attack latency, survival time, and capture success rate. The shift in predator-prey dynamics was similar when predators and prey were co-exposed to copper. Overall, we show that copper-exposed coho are unresponsive to their chemosensory environment, unprepared to evade nearby predators, and significantly less likely to survive an attack sequence. Our findings contribute to a growing understanding of how common environmental contaminants alter the chemical ecology of aquatic communities.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

This report is intended to synthesize the state of the scientific understanding of pallid sturgeon ecological requirements to provide recommendations for future science directions and context for Missouri River restoration and management decisions. Recruitment of pallid sturgeon has been low to non-existent throughout its range. Emerging understanding of the genetic structure of pallid sturgeon populations sets a broad framework for species and river management decisions, including decisions about managing the future genetic diversity of the species, but also decisions about where and what type of river restoration actions will be effective for subpopulations of this highly migratory species. Adult pallid sturgeon may migrate hundreds of kilometers (km) to spawn and their progeny may disperse even greater distances downstream as drifting free embryos. As a result of their complex life history pallid sturgeon naturally exploit a wide range of habitats during their life cycles. The construction of dams and reservoirs has fragmented habitats and may have shifted Missouri River subpopulations downstream. Research has not identified one primary biological or ecological constraint that appears to limit populations of the pallid sturgeon. With the present (2013) state of knowledge many life stages and life-stage transitions cannot be ruled out as contributing to recruitment failure. Biological opinions in 2000 (and amended in 2003) presented the dominant hypotheses for recruitment failure that existed at that time. Emphasis was on the role of the flow regime, specifically spring flow pulses (“spring rises”), to condition spawning substrate and cue reproductive aggregations and migrations, and on low flows and additional slow, shallow-water area to serve as rearing habitat for age-0 to juvenile pallid sturgeon. Studies on spawning habitat dynamics have documented that habitat patches selected for spawning by fish in the Lower Missouri River (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam to the confluence with the Mississippi River) are dominantly on outside, revetted bends in the deepest, fastest, and most turbulent water. Studies in more natural habitat on the Yellowstone River have documented spawning in convergent flow in the middle of the channel on discrete patches of gravel within a sand-dominated channel, an arrangement that may be more effective in attracting aggregations of reproductive fish compared to the nearly continuous revetment on the Lower Missouri River. Pallid sturgeon spawn in the spring and early summer during periods of increasing day length. Water temperature consistently exerts a threshold effect for spawning at 16–18 °C. In addition, the role of water temperature is indicated by pauses and reversals in upstream migrations that have been associated with cold weather fronts that create a transient decrease in water temperature. From 2005 to 2012 on the Lower Missouri River, no obvious relations between flow pulses and fish movements and spawning behaviors have been apparent. However, pallid sturgeon tracking at the Upper Missouri–Yellowstone confluence indicates that in most years, most telemetered pallid sturgeon migrate out of the Missouri River and into the Yellowstone River in the June–July timeframe in association with the spring pulse. This pattern was disrupted in 2011 when a high flow pulse with warm temperatures and high turbidity emanated from the Milk River, followed by record releases from Fort Peck Dam, and 36–39 percent of the telemetered population migrated up the Upper Missouri. This result supports the hypothesis that sufficiently large flow pulses may trigger migration and aggregation but it is not clear that functional pulses are within reservoir management authorities. Notably, a pallid sturgeon free embryo was captured on the Upper Missouri River in 2011 and another single, genetically confirmed embryo was captured on the Yellowstone River in 2012. Research on free-embryo drift has indicated the potential for hundreds of miles of downstream dispersal. Lack of distance to accommodate the extended downstream dispersal period of free embryos on the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers is the predominant hypothesis for recruitment failure in the upper basin. Long drift distances in the Lower Missouri River may be responsible for shifting Lower Missouri River sub-populations further into the Middle Mississippi River. Physical understanding of drift processes indicates that mean velocities could be slowed through decreased discharges or increased channel hydraulic radius (width and topographic diversity) to reduce free-embryo dispersal distances. In addition, the probability that free embryos are transported into and retained in channel-margin habitats is theoretically amenable to channel re-engineering that would increase cross-channel secondary currents in bends or channel expansions. Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about whether extended drift of Lower Missouri River larvae is responsible for recruitment failure. If drift distance is limiting, it is important to discern whether it would be advisable to retain larvae within the Missouri River, and where along the river restoration projects should be placed to optimize survival and growth of age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Longitudinal differences in female pallid sturgeon fecundity lend support to the hypothesis that recruitment failure may be due, in part, to fish having insufficient nutrition to produce the numbers of gametes needed for the population to grow, perhaps because of simultaneous declines in prey-fish populations and their habitats. Establishing a chain of causality from habitat decline, to prey-fish populations, to sturgeon diets, to sturgeon fecundity, and to pallid sturgeon population growth presents a considerable scientific challenge. In addition to the dominant hypotheses relating pallid sturgeon populations to changes in flow regime and channel morphology, other factors have been identified that might be sources of stress and contribute to recruitment failure. Among these are water quality and contaminants. Ambient water-quality monitoring on the Missouri River has demonstrated summer episodes when dissolved oxygen dips below 5 milligrams per liter, a threshold that may be stressful especially to age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Documented cases of intersex in shovelnose and pallid sturgeon indicate that agricultural and municipal sources of endocrine disrupting chemicals also may have a role in pallid sturgeon recruitment failure. Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Missouri River↗

USGS2021

Bat activity patterns relative to temporal and weather effects in a temperate coastal environment

The northeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States are important summer maternity habitat and seasonal migratory corridors for many species of bats. Additionally, the effects of weather on bat activity are relatively unknown beyond coarse nightly scales. Using acoustic detectors, we assessed nightly and hourly activity patterns for eight species of bats over 21 consecutive months at Fire Island National Seashore, New York. The site is an important bat conservation area because it hosts one of the few confirmed northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) maternity colonies in the region despite their widespread extirpation due to white-nose syndrome (WNS). There have been no reported captures of little brown bats ( M. lucifugus ), Indiana bats ( M. sodalis ), or tri-colored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) at the site post-WNS. Overall, we found mean hourly temperature, time since sunset, day of year, and year to be the most important predictors of bat activity levels for all examined species. Most non-hibernating, migratory species in our study demonstrated a positive relationship to mean temperature at the hourly timescale, whereas cave-hibernating bats tended to show a negative relationship to mean temperature during the time of year when they are expected to be active. Although most bat activity occurred in the late spring through early autumn, peaking in summer, some activity occurred periodically in the winter months, mostly attributable to the big brown bat ( Eptesicus fuscus ) and silver-haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivigans ) phonic group. Unexpectedly, relationships of bat activity to wind and precipitation were largely equivocal. Initial presence (as early as March 30) and departure (between November 1–4) for northern long-eared bats at our study area occurred earlier in the spring and later in the fall than occurs for inland populations, suggesting that the species overwinters on Long Island rather than at inland karst caves or mines. A peak in spring activity characteristic of migratory behavior in the central Appalachians and Atlantic Coast was not observed at Fire Island, although Eastern red bats ( Lasiurus borealis ) and hoary bats (L. cinereus ) – both migratory species – did show a notable rise in activity in the late summer and early fall, suggesting these populations may migrate to and from Fire Island. Understanding the temporal and weather relationships to bat activity in this coastal environment may have important implications for tailoring more effective conservation and management strategies by identifying optimal timing for surveys, tracking bats during peak migratory windows, and providing insights that minimizes impacts to extant bats from activities such as wind-energy development or land management, i.e., forestry.

New York↗

USGS2019

Tropical cyclones alter short-term activity patterns of a coastal seabird

Background Mobile organisms in marine environments are expected to modify their behavior in response to external stressors. Among environmental drivers of animal movement are long-term climatic indices influencing organism distribution and short-term meteorological events anticipated to alter acute movement behavior. However, few studies exist documenting the response of vagile species to meteorological anomalies in coastal and marine systems. Methods Here we examined the movements of Eastern brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis ) in the South Atlantic Bight in response to the passage of three separate hurricane events in 2 years. Pelicans ( n = 32) were tracked with GPS satellite transmitters from four colonies in coastal South Carolina, USA, for the entirety of at least one storm event. An Expectation Maximization binary Clustering algorithm was used to discretize pelican behavioral states, which were pooled into ‘active’ versus ‘inactive’ states. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess behavioral state probabilities in relation to changes in barometric pressure and wind velocity. Results Individual pelicans were more likely to remain inactive during tropical cyclone passage compared to baseline conditions generally, although responses varied by hurricane. When inactive, pelicans tended to seek shelter using local geomorphological features along the coastline such as barrier islands and estuarine systems. Conclusions Our telemetry data showed that large subtropical seabirds such as pelicans may mitigate risk associated with spatially-extensive meteorological events by decreasing daily movements. Sheltering may be related to changes in barometric pressure and wind velocity, and represents a strategy common to several other classes of marine vertebrate predators for increasing survival probabilities.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS1995

Effects of harness-attached transmitters on premigration and reproduction of Brant

Radio transmitters are an important tool in waterfowl ecology studies, but little is known about their effects on free-ranging geese. We attached transmitters to female brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) to investigate migration schedules at a fall staging area, return rates to nesting grounds, and nesting rates of returning females in subsequent breeding seasons. Radio-tagged females (n = 62) carried either 35-g back-mounted transmitters attached with ribbon harnesses, or 26- or 32-g back-mounted transmitters affixed with plastic-coated wire harnesses (Dwyer 1972). Arrival and departure schedules at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, did not differ (P > 0.05) between radio-tagged females and the entire population in 1987-89. Color-banded females with transmitters returned to the breeding colony in subsequent nesting seasons (1988-92) at a lower (P ≤ 0.003) rate (≤4%) than color-banded females without transmitters (57-83%). The 1 returning color-banded female with a transmitter did not breed, while an average 90% of the returning color-banded females without transmitters nested in subsequent breeding seasons (P = 0.005). Back-mounted, harness-attached transmitters may bias data in studies of waterfowl behavior, productivity, and survival.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

Ecology↗

USGS2010

Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas ( Puma concolor ) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or urban by 2030, and 35% of suitable puma habitat on private land in 1970 will have been lost by 2030. These land-use changes will further isolate puma populations in southern California, but the ability to visualize these changes had provided a new tool for developing proactive conservation solutions.

California↗

USGS2008

Projecting cumulative benefits of multiple river restoration projects: an example from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River system in California

Despite increasingly large investments, the potential ecological effects of river restoration programs are still small compared to the degree of human alterations to physical and ecological function. Thus, it is rarely possible to “restore” pre-disturbance conditions; rather restoration programs (even large, well-funded ones) will nearly always involve multiple small projects, each of which can make some modest change to selected ecosystem processes and habitats. At present, such projects are typically selected based on their attributes as individual projects (e.g., consistency with programmatic goals of the funders, scientific soundness, and acceptance by local communities), and ease of implementation. Projects are rarely prioritized (at least explicitly) based on how they will cumulatively affect ecosystem function over coming decades. Such projections require an understanding of the form of the restoration response curve, or at least that we assume some plausible relations and estimate cumulative effects based thereon. Drawing on our experience with the CALFED Bay-Delta Ecosystem Restoration Program in California, we consider potential cumulative system-wide benefits of a restoration activity extensively implemented in the region: isolating/filling abandoned floodplain gravel pits captured by rivers to reduce predation of outmigrating juvenile salmon by exotic warmwater species inhabiting the pits. We present a simple spreadsheet model to show how different assumptions about gravel pit bathymetry and predator behavior would affect the cumulative benefits of multiple pit-filling and isolation projects, and how these insights could help managers prioritize which pits to fill.

California↗

USGS2011

Effects of hypoxia on consumption, growth, and RNA:DNA ratios of young Yellow Perch

As in various freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems worldwide, seasonal bottom water hypoxia is a recurring phenomenon in Lake Erie’s central basin. While bottom hypoxia can strongly affect sessile benthic animals, its effects on mobile organisms such as fish are less understood. We evaluated the potential for bottom hypoxia to affect the growth rates of yellow perch Perca flavescens, a species of ecological and economic importance in the lake. To this end, we (1) conducted laboratory experiments to quantify the effects of reduced dissolved oxygen on consumption, somatic growth, and RNA:DNA ratios (an index of short-term growth) of young yellow perch and (2) explored the effects of bottom hypoxia on young yellow perch growth in Lake Erie’s central basin by collecting individuals in hypoxic and normoxic regions of the lake and quantifying their RNA:DNA ratios. Yellow perch consumption and growth in our experiments declined under hypoxic conditions (≤2 mg O2/L). While yellow perch RNA:DNA ratios responded strongly to experimental temperature, nucleic acid ratios were not significantly affected by dissolved oxygen or feeding ration. We did, however, observe a positive correlation between yellow perch growth and RNA:DNA ratios at low temperatures (11◦C). The nucleic acid ratios of yellow perch collected in Lake Erie varied spatiotemporally, but their patterns were not consistent with hypoxia. In short, while yellow perch consumption and growth rates respond directly and negatively to low oxygen conditions, these responses are not necessarily reflected in RNA:DNA ratios. Moreover, in central Lake Erie, where yellow perch can behaviorally avoid hypoxic areas, the RNA:DNA ratios of yellow perch do not respond strongly to bottom hypoxia. Thus, this study suggests that there is no strong negative effect of bottom hypoxia on the growth of young yellow perch in Lake Erie.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2018

Size‐assortative choice and mate availability influences hybridization between red wolves (Canis rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans)

Anthropogenic hybridization of historically isolated taxa has become a primary conservation challenge for many imperiled species. Indeed, hybridization between red wolves ( Canis rufus ) and coyotes ( Canis latrans ) poses a significant challenge to red wolf recovery. We considered seven hypotheses to assess factors influencing hybridization between red wolves and coyotes via pair‐bonding between the two species. Because long‐term monogamy and defense of all‐purpose territories are core characteristics of both species, mate choice has long‐term consequences. Therefore, red wolves may choose similar‐sized mates to acquire partners that behave similarly to themselves in the use of space and diet. We observed multiple factors influencing breeding pair formation by red wolves and found that most wolves paired with similar‐sized conspecifics and wolves that formed congeneric pairs with nonwolves (coyotes and hybrids) were mostly female wolves, the smaller of the two sexes. Additionally, we observed that lower red wolf abundance relative to nonwolves and the absence of helpers increased the probability that wolves consorted with nonwolves. However, successful pairings between red wolves and nonwolves were associated with wolves that maintained small home ranges. Behaviors associated with territoriality are energetically demanding and behaviors (e.g., aggressive interactions, foraging, and space use) involved in maintaining territories are influenced by body size. Consequently, we propose the hypothesis that size disparities between consorting red wolves and coyotes influence positive assortative mating and may represent a reproductive barrier between the two species. We offer that it may be possible to maintain wild populations of red wolves in the presence of coyotes if management strategies increase red wolf abundance on the landscape by mitigating key threats, such as human‐caused mortality and hybridization with coyotes. Increasing red wolf abundance would likely restore selection pressures that increase mean body and home‐range sizes of red wolves and decrease hybridization rates via reduced occurrence of congeneric pairs.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2008

Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering captive young into wild nests), diminishing the importance of nest failure as a limiting factor. Annual survival has been periodically reduced by catastrophes (hurricanes), which have greatly constrained population growth, but survival rates were high under non-catastrophic conditions. Although the importance of factors maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot bottleneck varied throughout the 30-year period of study, we determined their long-term influence using LSA simulations to correlate variation in demographic rates with variation in population growth (k). The bottleneck appears to have been maintained primarily by periodic catastrophes (hurricanes) that reduced adult survival, and secondarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors that resulted in a failure of many adults to nest. The influence of inbreeding through reduced hatching success played a much less significant role, even when additional effects of inbreeding on the production and mortality of young were incorporated into the LSA. Management actions needed to speed recovery include (1) continued nest guarding to minimize the effects of nest failure due to nongenetic causes; (2) creating a second population at another location on the island --a process that was recently initiated--to reduce the chance that hurricane strikes will cause extinction; and (3) determining the causes of the low percentage of breeders in the population and ameliorating them, which would have a large impact on population growth.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2003

Importance of the predator's ecological neighborhood in modeling predation on migrating prey

Most mathematical descriptions of predator-prey interactions fail to take into account the spatio-temporal structures of the populations, which can lead to errors or misinterpretations. For example, a compact pulse of prey migrating through a field of quasi-stationary predators may not be well described by standard predator-prey models, because the predators and prey are unlikely to be well mixed; that is, the prey may be exposed to only a fraction of the predator population at a time. This underscores the importance of properly accounting for the ecological neighborhood, or effective feeding range, of predators in models. We illustrate this situation with a series of models of salmon smolts migrating through a reservoir arrayed with predators. The reservoir is divided into a number of longitudinal compartments or spatial cells, the length of each cell representing the upstream-downstream range over which predators can forage. In this series of models a 100-km-long reservoir is divided, successively into 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 cells, with respective cell lengths of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 km. We used a detailed individual-based simulation model at first, but to ensure robustness of results we supplemented this with a simple analytic model. Both models showed sharp differences in the predicted mortality to a compact pulse of smolt prey moving through the reservoir, depending on the number of spatial cells in the model. In particular, models with fewer than about 10 cells vastly overpredicted the amount of mortality due to predators with activity ranges of not more than a few kilometers. These results corroborate recent theoretical and simulation studies on the importance of spatial scale and behavior in modeling predator-prey dynamics.

Oikos↗

USGS2006

Chemical and ecological health of white sucker (Catostomus Commersoni) in Rock Creek Park, Washington, D.C., 2003?04

Several classes of chemicals that are known or suspected contaminants were found in bed sediment in Rock Creek, including polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), phthalate esters, organochlorine pesticides, dioxins and furans, trace metals and metalloids (mercury, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel, silver, and zinc), and polychlorinated biphenyls (total PCBs and selected aroclors). Concentrations of many of these chemicals consistently exceeded thresholdor chronic-effects guidelines for the protection of aquatic life and often exceeded probable effects levels (PELs). Exceedance of PELs was dependent on the amount of total organic carbon in the sediments. Concurrent with the collection of sediment-quality data, white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) were evaluated for gross-external and internal-organ anomalies, whole-body burdens of chemical contaminants, and gut contents to determine prey. The histopathology of internal tissues of white sucker was compared to contaminant levels in fish tissue and bed sediment. Gut contents were examined to determine preferential prey and thus potential pathways for the bioaccumulation of chemicals from bed sediments. Male and female fish were tested separately. Lesions and other necroses were observed in all fish collected during both years of sample collection, indicating that fish in Rock Creek have experienced some form of environmental stress. No direct cause and effect was determined for chemical exposure and compromised fish health, but a substantial weight of evidence indicates that white sucker, which are bottom-feeding fish and low-order consumers in Rock Creek, are experiencing some reduction in vitality, possibly due to immunosuppression. Abnormalities observed in gonads of both sexes of white sucker and observations of abnormal behavior during spawning indicated some interruption in reproductive success.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Transmitter effects on growth and survival of Forster’s tern chicks

Radio‐telemetry is a commonly used scientific technique that allows researchers to collect detailed movement, habitat use, and survival data of animals; however, evidence indicates that using telemetry can affect behavior and survival. Using multiple breeding colonies and years, we investigated the effects of attached radio‐transmitters on growth and survival of Forster's tern ( Sterna forsteri ) chicks in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, 2010–2011. We tested these potential effects at isolated islands that allowed for high re‐capture rates (typically >85%) in radio‐marked and banded‐only chicks. Modeled Gompertz growth curves suggested that transmitters had a small negative effect on some of the asymptotic growth parameters of tern chicks; tarsus (−1.5 ± 0.7% [SE]), culmen (−1.7 ± 1.2%), and wing (−4.9 ± 2.0%) lengths were shorter for radio‐marked chicks compared to banded‐only chicks. In contrast, there was no difference in asymptotic mass between radio‐marked chicks and banded‐only chicks. Survival from hatching to fledging was lower for radio‐marked chicks than banded‐only chicks during 2010 (banded‐only = 0.313 ± 0.162 vs. radio‐marked = 0.250 ± 0.165) and 2011 (0.193 ± 0.030 vs. 0.123 ± 0.027). Most of the transmitter effect occurred within the first week after hatching, rather than in older chicks. Notably, the effect of transmitters on chick survival was primarily additive, indicating that the effect of transmitters on radio‐marked chicks was not influenced by other ecological covariates. Given the effect radio‐transmitters had on survival did not change across temporal or ecological gradients, transmitters can still be used to evaluate ecological factors affecting survival and timing of mortality and radio‐marked birds can be used to make inferences to the general population.

California↗

USGS2006

Chemical and Ecological Health of White Sucker (Catostomus Commersoni) in Rock Creek Park, Washington, D.C., 2003-04

Several classes of chemicals that are known or suspected contaminants were found in bed sediment in Rock Creek, including polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), phthalate esters, organochlorine pesticides, dioxins and furans, trace metals and metalloids (mercury, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel, silver, and zinc), and polychlorinated biphenyls (total PCBs and selected aroclors). Concentrations of many of these chemicals consistently exceeded threshold or chronic-effects guidelines for the protection of aquatic life and often exceeded probable effects levels (PELs). Exceedance of PELs was dependent on the amount of total organic carbon in the sediments. Concurrent with the collection of sediment-quality data, white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) were evaluated for gross-external and internal-organ anomalies, whole-body burdens of chemical contaminants, and gut contents to determine prey. The histopathology of internal tissues of white sucker was compared to contaminant levels in fish tissue and bed sediment. Gut contents were examined to determine preferential prey and thus potential pathways for the bioaccumulation of chemicals from bed sediments. Male and female fish were tested separately. Lesions and other necroses were observed in all fish collected during both years of sample collection, indicating that fish in Rock Creek have experienced some form of environmental stress. No direct cause and effect was determined for chemical exposure and compromised fish health, but a substantial weight of evidence indicates that white sucker, which are bottom-feeding fish and low-order consumers in Rock Creek, are experiencing some reduction in vitality, possibly due to immunosuppression. Abnormalities observed in gonads of both sexes of white sucker and observations of abnormal behavior during spawning indicated some interruption in reproductive success.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1977

Population ecology of the mallard: IV. A review of duck hunting regulations, activity, and success, with special reference to the mallard

This, the fourth in a series of reports on the mallard, ( Anas platyrhynchos ), deals at length with the harvest of mallards by waterfowl hunters. Long-term summaries of duck hunting regulations (1948- 1974), Migratory Bird Hunting Stamp sales (1934-1974), Hunter Questionnaire (1952-1974), Duck Wing Collection (1960-1974), and Hunter Performance (1965-1972) Survey data for the United States are presented and discussed. Similar data from Canada are also summarized. Mallard harvest figures for 1961-1974 are presented by Mallard Harvest Area, of which 100 are defined for the United States and 14 for Canada, as well as by State or Province and flyway. During the 23-year period beginning in 1952, an average of 1.6 million adult and 0.2 million junior waterfowl hunters accumulated almost 12.3 million hunter-days of recreation and a harvest of 11.2 million ducks each year. Hunter reports indicate that mallards made up about 43% (5.5 million annually) of the ducks taken before 1960, when mallard regulations were less restrictive; the Duck Wing Survey indicates that mallards have made up 33% of the harvest (3.6 million annually) since 1960. The age and sex compositions and the chronological distribution of the mallard harvest are examined in detail. Among the patterns noted are peak harvests during the first few days of the season in many States, alternately increasing and decreasing annual age ratios, and sex ratios that suggest differential migration of adult drakes and hunter selectivity for males. It is estimated that almost 19% of the ducks shot down are not retrieved. Relationships between duck hunting regulations and hunter behavior are examined briefly. Hunter compliance with mallard bag limits, hunter selectivity of mallards by sex, and, to a lesser extent, the size of the unretrieved kill are all sensitive to the particular bag limit regulations in effect. Survey data are also examined for relationships between harvest and various hunting regulations: starting time and day of the week for opening day, opening date, season length, split seasons, daily shooting hours, and daily bag limits. Tables are presented relating changes in duck and mallard harvests to season length and bag limit, and examples of what effects changes in other regulations have on harvest are also given. The evaluation of bag limit regulations, one of the most important tools used in managing harvest, is carried a step further with the development of a procedure for calculating expected hunter success under a wide variety of bag limit regulations. This method appears promising for evaluating point-limit as well as fixed-limit regulations. In addition, it may provide useful measurements of the degree of hunter selectivity induced by various types of bag limit regulations, an increasingly important aspect of harvest management. Finally, this study clearly demonstrates that the effects of a particular regulation can differ dramatically from area to area, so it is usually necessary to evaluate each proposal on a State-by-State basis.

Resource Publication↗