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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Sensitivity analysis, calibration, and testing of a distributed hydrological model using error‐based weighting and one objective function

We evaluate the utility of three interrelated means of using data to calibrate the fully distributed rainfall‐runoff model TOPKAPI as applied to the Maggia Valley drainage area in Switzerland. The use of error‐based weighting of observation and prior information data, local sensitivity analysis, and single‐objective function nonlinear regression provides quantitative evaluation of sensitivity of the 35 model parameters to the data, identification of data types most important to the calibration, and identification of correlations among parameters that contribute to nonuniqueness. Sensitivity analysis required only 71 model runs, and regression required about 50 model runs. The approach presented appears to be ideal for evaluation of models with long run times or as a preliminary step to more computationally demanding methods. The statistics used include composite scaled sensitivities, parameter correlation coefficients, leverage, Cook's D, and DFBETAS. Tests suggest predictive ability of the calibrated model typical of hydrologic models.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2010

Testing mixing models of old and young groundwater in a tropical lowland rain forest with environmental tracers

We tested three models of mixing between old interbasin groundwater flow (IGF) and young, locally derived groundwater in a lowland rain forest in Costa Rica using a large suite of environmental tracers. We focus on the young fraction of water using the transient tracers CFC‐11, CFC‐12, CFC‐113, SF 6 , 3 H, and bomb 14 C. We measured 3 He, but 3 H/ 3 He dating is generally problematic due to the presence of mantle 3 He. Because of their unique concentration histories in the atmosphere, combinations of transient tracers are sensitive not only to subsurface travel times but also to mixing between waters having different travel times. Samples fall into three distinct categories: (1) young waters that plot along a piston flow line, (2) old samples that have near‐zero concentrations of the transient tracers, and (3) mixtures of 1 and 2. We have modeled the concentrations of the transient tracers using (1) a binary mixing model (BMM) of old and young water with the young fraction transported via piston flow, (2) an exponential mixing model (EMM) with a distribution of groundwater travel times characterized by a mean value, and (3) an exponential mixing model for the young fraction followed by binary mixing with an old fraction (EMM/BMM). In spite of the mathematical differences in the mixing models, they all lead to a similar conceptual model of young (0 to 10 year) groundwater that is locally derived mixing with old (>1000 years) groundwater that is recharged beyond the surface water boundary of the system.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2015

Seismic hazard assessment: Honing the debate, testing the models

Four workshops held in 2013–2014 at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis brought together university, government, and insurance industry scientists from countries that straddle plate boundaries and those in plate interiors. Participants were invited; the workshops’ goals involved developing tests of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and other earthquake hazard assessment strategies and seeking viable alternatives to overcome weaknesses to these strategies.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2008

Large-scale natural gradient tracer test in sand and gravel, Cape Cod, Massachusetts: 1. Experimental design and observed tracer movement

A large-scale natural gradient tracer experiment was conducted on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, to examine the transport and dispersion of solutes in a sand and gravel aquifer. The nonreactive tracer, bromide, and the reactive tracers, lithium and molybdate, were injected as a pulse in July 1985 and monitored in three dimensions as they moved as far as 280 m down-gradient through an array of multilevel samplers. The bromide cloud moved horizontally at a rate of 0.42 m per day. It also moved downward about 4 m because of density-induced sinking early in the test and accretion of areal recharge from precipitation. After 200 m of transport, the bromide cloud had spread more than 80 m in the direction of flow, but was only 14 m wide and 4–6 m thick. The lithium and molybdate clouds followed the same path as the bromide cloud, but their rates of movement were retarded about 50% relative to bromide movement because of sorption onto the sediments.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2012

Empirical estimates of cumulative refraction errors associated with procedurally constrained levelings based on the Gaithersburg- Tucson refraction tests of the National Geodetic Survey

Analyses of results of the National Geodetic Survey's leveling refraction tests indicate that the standard deviation about the mean (σ) for high-scale minus low-scale rod readings closely correlates with measured refraction error. Use of this relation in conjunction with values for σ obtained from routinely constrained surveys provides a basis for estimating the refraction error associated with levelings of stipulated order and class.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2010

Unsaturated flow in a centrifugal field: Measurement of hydraulic conductivity and testing of Darcy's Law

A method has been developed to establish steady state flow of water in an unsaturated soil sample spinning in a centrifuge. Theoretical analysis predicts moisture conditions in the sample that depend strongly on soil type and certain operating parameters. For Oakley sand, measurements of flux, water content, and matric potential during and after centrifugation verify that steady state flow can be achieved. Experiments have confirmed the theoretical prediction of a nearly uniform moisture distribution for this medium and have demonstrated that the flow can be effectively one-dimensional. The method was used for steady state measurements of hydraulic conductivity K for relatively dry soil, giving values as low as 7.6 × 10 −11 m/s with data obtained in a few hours. Darcy's law was tested by measuring K for different centrifugal driving forces but with the same water content. For the sand at a bulk density of 1.82 Mg/m 3 and 27% saturation, results were consistent with Darcy's law for K equal to 5.22 × 10 −10 m/s and forces ranging from 216 to 1650 times normal gravity.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2020

Blind testing of shoreline evolution models

Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999–2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014–2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models’ capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2024

Testing the effectiveness of interactive training on sexual harassment and assault in field science

Fieldwork is a critical tool for scientific research, particularly in applied disciplines. Yet fieldwork is often unsafe, especially for members of historically marginalized groups and people whose presence in scientific spaces threatens traditional hierarchies of power, authority, and legitimacy. Research is needed to identify interventions that prevent sexual harassment and assault from occurring in the first place. We conducted a quasi-experiment assessing the impacts of a 90-min interactive training on field-based staff in a United States state government agency. We hypothesized that the knowledge-based interventions, social modeling, and mastery experiences included in the training would increase participants’ sexual harassment and assault prevention knowledge, self-efficacy, behavioural intention, and behaviour after the training compared to a control group of their peers. Treatment–control and pre-post training survey data indicate that the training increased participants’ sexual harassment and assault prevention knowledge and prevention self-efficacy, and, to a lesser extent, behavioural intention. These increases persisted several months after the training for knowledge and self-efficacy. While we did not detect differences in the effect of the training for different groups, interestingly, post-hoc tests indicated that women and members of underrepresented racial groups generally scored lower compared to male and white respondents, suggesting that these groups self-assess their own capabilities differently. Finally, participants’ likelihood to report incidents increased after the training but institutional reports remained low, emphasizing the importance of efforts to transform reporting systems and develop better methods to measure bystander actions. These results support the utility of a peer-led interactive intervention for improving workplace culture and safety in scientific fieldwork settings.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2001

Test of a modified habitat suitability model for bighorn sheep

Translocation of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) is time, labor, and cost intensive and, therefore, high levels of success are desirable. We tested a widely used habitat suitability model against translocation success and then modified it to include additional factors which improved its usefulness in predicting appropriate translocation sites. The modified Smith habitat suitability model for bighorn sheep was 64% accurate in predicting success or failure of 32 translocations of bighorn sheep into the Rocky Mountains, Colorado Plateau desert, and prairie-badlands of six states. We had sheep location data for 13 populations, and the modified habitat model predicted the areas used by bighorn sheep with greater than 90% accuracy in eight populations, greater than 55% accuracy in four populations, and less than 55% accuracy in one population. Translocations were more successful when sheep were placed into discrete habitat patches containing a high proportion of lambing period habitat (>10% of suitable habitat, p = 0.05), where animals had a migratory tendency ( p = 0.02), no contact with domestic sheep ( p = 0.02), or greater distance to domestic sheep (>23 km, p = 0.02). Rate of population growth was best predicted by area of lambing period habitat, potential area of winter range, and distance to domestic sheep. We retested the model using these refined criteria and the refined model then predicted success or failure of these 32 translocated populations with 82% accuracy.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2004

Standard penetration test-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential

This paper presents'new correlations for assessment of the likelihood of initiation (or triggering) of soil liquefaction. These new correlations eliminate several sources of bias intrinsic to previous, similar correlations, and provide greatly reduced overall uncertainty and variance. Key elements in the development of these new correlations are (1) accumulation of a significantly expanded database of field performance case histories; (2) use of improved knowledge and understanding of factors affecting interpretation of standard penetration test data; (3) incorporation of improved understanding of factors affecting site-specific earthquake ground motions (including directivity effects, site-specific response, etc.); (4) use of improved methods for assessment of in situ cyclic shear stress ratio; (5) screening of field data case histories on a quality/uncertainty basis; and (6) use of high-order probabilistic tools (Bayesian updating). The resulting relationships not only provide greatly reduced uncertainty, they also help to resolve a number of corollary issues that have long been difficult and controversial including: (1) magnitude-correlated duration weighting factors, (2) adjustments for fines content, and (3) corrections for overburden stress. ?? ASCE.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗

USGS2007

Construction and testing of a simple and economical soil greenhouse gas automatic sampler

Quantification of soil greenhouse gas emissions requires considerable sampling to account for spatial and/or temporal variation. With manual sampling, additional personnel are often not available to sample multiple sites within a narrow time interval. The objectives were to construct an automatic gas sampler and to compare the accuracy and precision of automatic versus manual sampling. The automatic sampler was tested with carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes that mimicked the range of CO2 fluxes during a typical corn-growing season in eastern Nebraska. Gas samples were drawn from the chamber at 0, 5, and 10 min manually and with the automatic sampler. The three samples drawn with the automatic sampler were transferred to pre-vacuumed vials after 1 h; thus the samples in syringe barrels stayed connected with the increasing CO2 concentration in the chamber. The automatic sampler sustains accuracy and precision in greenhouse gas sampling while improving time efficiency and reducing labor stress. Copyright ?? Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Journal of Plant Nutrition↗

USGS2017

Test of a non-physical barrier consisting of light, sound, and bubble screen to block upstream movement of sea lamprey in an experimental raceway

Control of the invasive Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus is critical for management of commercial and recreational fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Use of physical barriers to block Sea Lampreys from spawning habitat is a major component of the control program. However, the resulting interruption of natural streamflow and blockage of nontarget species present substantial challenges. Development of an effective nonphysical barrier would aid the control of Sea Lampreys by eliminating their access to spawning locations while maintaining natural streamflow. We tested the effect of a nonphysical barrier consisting of strobe lights, low-frequency sound, and a bubble screen on the movement of Sea Lampreys in an experimental raceway designed as a two-choice maze with a single main channel fed by two identical inflow channels (one control and one blocked). Sea Lampreys were more likely to move upstream during trials when the strobe light and low-frequency sound were active compared with control trials and trials using the bubble screen alone. For those Sea Lampreys that did move upstream to the confluence of inflow channels, no combination of stimuli or any individual stimulus significantly influenced the likelihood that Sea Lampreys would enter the blocked inflow channel, enter the control channel, or return downstream.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

Testing a continuous measure of recreation specialization among birdwatchers

Recreation specialization is a framework that can be used to explain the variation among outdoor recreationists’ preferences, attitudes, and behaviors. Recreation specialization has been operationalized using several approaches, including summative indices, cluster analysis, and self-classification categorical measures. Although these approaches measure the multiple dimensions of the framework, they may not reflect the relative contribution of the dimensions to individuals’ degree of engagement. We illustrate an approach that uses second-order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) factor scores as weights to determine a person’s degree of recreation specialization and compares the CFA-based results to those derived from cluster analysis. This approach permits the use of a broader set of statistical tests when compared to categorical specialization measures and provides information about the distribution of responses. Data were collected from an online survey of eBird registrants from the United States.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife↗

USGS2024

Testing spatial out-of-sample area of influence for grain forecasting models

We examine the factors that determine if a grain forecasting model fit to one region can be transferred to another region. Prior research has proposed examining the area of applicability (AoA) of a model based on structurally similar characteristics in the Earth Observation predictors and weights based on the model derived feature importance. We expand on and evaluate this approach in the context of grain yield forecasting in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, we evaluate an AoA methodology established for generating raster surfaces and apply it to vector supported grain data. We fit a series of ensemble tree models both within single countries and across multiple sets of countries and then test those models in countries excluded from the training set. We then calculate and decompose AoA measures and examine several different performance metrics. We find that the spatial transfer accuracy does not vary across season but does vary by average rainfall and across high, medium, and low yielding regions. In general, areas with higher yields and medium to high average rainfall tend to have higher accuracy for both model training and transfer. Finally, we find that fitting models with multiple countries provides more accurate out-of-sample estimates when compared to models fitted to a single country.

Enivronmental Research Letters↗

USGS2025

Causes of differential migration distance: Test of seven mechanistic hypotheses in an arctic raptor

Exploring the causes of differential migration, or variation in migration distance, has increased our understanding of the remarkable variation in migratory behavior exhibited by birds more generally. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the mechanisms underlying differential migration distance in birds despite it being a common phenomenon. We leveraged migration distances from GPS-tracked rough-legged hawks Buteo lagopus to test predictions deduced from seven hypotheses proposed to explain the underlying cause(s) of differential migration distance. We provide the first empirical evidence in support of a social dominance food maximization hypothesis whereby dominant individuals migrate to higher quality nonbreeding locations with respect to foraging efficiency regardless of migration distance. Within females, larger more dominant individuals migrated intermediate distances while smaller, subordinate individuals migrated both longer and shorter distances. We also found support for the social dominance distance minimization hypothesis because more aggressive females migrated shorter distances, although increased aggression at shorter distances may be a consequence of poor body condition. Within males, we found some support for the fasting endurance and thermal tolerance hypotheses because body size was negatively correlated with migration distance. Body size was also negatively correlated with food availability and winter minimum temperatures within both sexes, providing additional mechanistic support for the fasting endurance and thermal tolerance hypotheses. Overall, our results suggest differential migration distance within rough-legged hawks is caused by a combination of competition for nonbreeding resources and constraints on fasting endurance or thermal tolerance, but is unrelated to competition for breeding opportunities, dietary preferences, or flight efficiency.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2022

Microbial community response to a bioaugmentation test to degrade trichloroethylene in a fractured rock aquifer, Trenton, N.J

Bioaugmentation is a promising strategy for enhancing trichloroethylene (TCE) degradation in fractured rock. However, slow or incomplete biodegradation can lead to stalling at degradation byproducts such as 1,2-dichloroethene ( cis -DCE) and vinyl chloride (VC). Over the course of 7 years, we examined the response of groundwater microbial populations in a bioaugmentation test where an emulsified vegetable oil solution (EOS ® ) and a dechlorinating consortium (KB-1 ® ), containing the established dechlorinator Dehalococcoides (DHC), were injected into a TCE-contaminated fractured rock aquifer. Indigenous microbial communities responded within 2 days to added substrate and outcompeted KB-1 ® , and over the years of monitoring, several other notable turnover events were observed. Concentrations of ethene, the end product in reductive dechlorination, had the strongest correlations ( P < .05) with members of Candidatus Colwellbacteria but their involvement in reductive dechlorination is unknown and warrants further investigation.DHC never exceeded 0.6% relative abundance of groundwater microbial communities, despite its previously presumed importance at the site. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide, acetic acid, and methane were positively correlated with increasing ethene concentrations; however, concentrations of cis- DCE and VC remained high by the end of the monitoring period suggesting preferential enrichment of indigenous partial dechlorinators over bioaugmented complete dechlorinators. This study highlights the importance of characterizing in situ microbial populations to understand how they can potentially enhance or inhibit augmented TCE degradation.

New Jersey↗

USGS2010

Testing founder effect speciation: Divergence population genetics of the Spoonbills Platalea regia and Pl. minor (Threskiornithidae, Aves)

Although founder effect speciation has been a popular theoretical model for the speciation of geographically isolated taxa, its empirical importance has remained difficult to evaluate due to the intractability of past demography, which in a founder effect speciation scenario would involve a speciational bottleneck in the emergent species and the complete cessation of gene flow following divergence. Using regression-weighted approximate Bayesian computation, we tested the validity of these two fundamental conditions of founder effect speciation in a pair of sister species with disjunct distributions: the royal spoonbill Platalea regia in Australasia and the black-faced spoonbill Pl. minor in eastern Asia. When compared with genetic polymorphism observed at 20 nuclear loci in the two species, simulations showed that the founder effect speciation model had an extremely low posterior probability (1.55 × 10 -8 ) of producing the extant genetic pattern. In contrast, speciation models that allowed for postdivergence gene flow were much more probable (posterior probabilities were 0.37 and 0.50 for the bottleneck with gene flow and the gene flow models, respectively) and postdivergence gene flow persisted for a considerable period of time (more than 80% of the divergence history in both models) following initial divergence (median = 197,000 generations, 95% credible interval [CI]: 50,000-478,000, for the bottleneck with gene flow model; and 186,000 generations, 95% CI: 45,000-477,000, for the gene flow model). Furthermore, the estimated population size reduction in Pl. regia to 7,000 individuals (median, 95% CI: 487-12,000, according to the bottleneck with gene flow model) was unlikely to have been severe enough to be considered a bottleneck. Therefore, these results do not support founder effect speciation in Pl. regia but indicate instead that the divergence between Pl. regia and Pl. minor was probably driven by selection despite continuous gene flow. In this light, we discuss the potential importance of evolutionarily labile traits with significant fitness consequences, such as migratory behavior and habitat preference, in facilitating divergence of the spoonbills.

Molecular Biology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

Why are ornithological studies so focused on the breeding stage? A test of hypotheses

Unequal representation of focal research areas can arise during the initial stages of project development when investigators make decisions about what, when, and where to study. Regarding when research is conducted, publications on vertebrates are strongly skewed toward breeding-stage studies, leaving sizeable gaps in our knowledge pertaining to behavior and demography in nonbreeding stages. Here, we quantified how the focus on different annual cycle stages has changed over the past 64 years in the field of ornithology, and tested 3 hypotheses to explain underlying correlates of the focus on different stages. We surveyed field-based studies published in Ornithology from 1960 to 2024 and documented the annual cycle stages examined, regions of study, migratory strategies of focal species, and author affiliation for each paper. The tendency to conduct breeding-stage research in ornithology became more, rather than less, pronounced over the 64-year interval, and breeding-stage research was more common when field work focused on migratory species. Therefore, investigators, authors, and editors could likely increase representation of other annual-cycle stages by supporting, conducting, and publishing more studies in the tropics and more studies using remote tracking technologies. More nonbreeding and year-round studies are necessary to fully understand the ecology and evolution of species and develop the most effective strategies for conservation.

Ornithology↗