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Environmental fate of fungicides and other current-use pesticides in a central California estuary
The current study documents the fate of current-use pesticides in an agriculturally-dominated central California coastal estuary by focusing on the occurrence in water, sediment and tissue of resident aquatic organisms. Three fungicides (azoxystrobin, boscalid, and pyraclostrobin), one herbicide (propyzamide) and two organophosphate insecticides (chlorpyrifos and diazinon) were detected frequently. Dissolved pesticide concentrations in the estuary corresponded to the timing of application while bed sediment pesticide concentrations correlated with the distance from potential sources. Fungicides and insecticides were detected frequently in fish and invertebrates collected near the mouth of the estuary and the contaminant profiles differed from the sediment and water collected. This is the first study to document the occurrence of many current-use pesticides, including fungicides, in tissue. Limited information is available on the uptake, accumulation and effects of current-use pesticides on non-target organisms. Additional data are needed to understand the impacts of pesticides, especially in small agriculturally-dominated estuaries.
GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity
Global earthquake activity rate model 1 (GEAR1) estimates the rate of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes 6–9 everywhere on Earth. It was designed to be reproducible and testable. Our preferred hybrid forecast is a log–linear blend of two parent forecasts based on the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog (smoothing 4602 m≥5.767 shallow earthquakes, 1977–2004) and the Global Strain Rate Map version 2.1 (smoothing 22,415 Global Positioning System velocities), optimized to best forecast the 2005–2012 Global CMT catalog. Strain rate is a proxy for fault stress accumulation, and earthquakes indicate stress release, so a multiplicative blend is desirable, capturing the strengths of both approaches. This preferred hybrid forecast outperforms its seismicity and strain‐rate parents; the chance that this improvement stems from random seismicity fluctuations is less than 1%. The preferred hybrid is also tested against the independent parts of the International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model catalog (m≥6.8 during 1918–1976) with similar success. GEAR1 is an update of this preferred hybrid. Comparing GEAR1 to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3), net earthquake rates agree within 4% at m≥5.8 and at m≥7.0. The spatial distribution of UCERF3 epicentroids most resembles GEAR1 after UCERF3 is smoothed with a 30 km kernel. Because UCERF3 has been constructed to derive useful information from fault geometry, slip rates, paleoseismic data, and enhanced seismic catalogs (not used in our model), this is encouraging. To build parametric catastrophe bonds from GEAR1, one could calculate the magnitude for which there is a 1% (or any) annual probability of occurrence in local regions.
Dynamics of the double-crested cormorant population on Lake Ontario
After nearly 30 years of recolonization and expansion across North America, the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) occupies the role of a perceived and, in some situations, realized threat to fish stocks and other resources. However, population data necessary to plan, defend, and implement management of this species are few. Our purpose was to gain insight into the relative contribution of various population parameters to the overall rate of population growth and identify data needs critical to improving our understanding of the dynamics of double-crested cormorant populations. We demonstrated the construction of a biologically reasonable representation of cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario (1979-2000) by referencing literature values for fertility, age at first breeding, and survival. These parameters were incorporated into a deterministic stage-classified matrix model. By calculating the elasticity of matrix elements (i.e., statgspecific fertility and survival), we found that cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario was most sensitive to survival of birds about to turn age 3 and older. Finally, we demonstrated how this information could be used to evaluate management scenarios and direct future research by simulating potential environmental effects on fertility and survival, as well as a 5-year egg-oiling program. We also demonstrated that survival of older birds exerts more effective population control than changes in fertility.
Seasonal predator removal relative to hatch rate of duck nests in waterfowl production areas
These authors report that hatch rates of duck nests were related to removal of predators from waterfowl production areas. Cost effectiveness of such efforts is questioned. The prairie pothole region (PPR) is the primary breeding ground of several species of North American ducks (Bellrose 1980). Much habitat of breeding ducks in the PPR has been destroyed or degraded by intensive agriculture (e.g., Kiel et al. 1972, Bellrose 1980, Sugden and Beyersbergen 1984, Boyd 1985), resulting in high predation rates on duck nests (Sargeant and Raveling 1992). Because of predation, hatch rate (HR) of duck nests in Waterfowl Production Areas (WPA's) in the PPR is often less than the 15-20% suggested for stability of populations of the 5 most common species of dabbling ducks (e.g., Cowardin et al. 1985, Greenwood 1986, Klett et al. 1988, Greenwood et al. 1990). Managers seek ways to reduce depredations of duck clutches in WPA's, but little information is available concerning effects of predator removal. We evaluated seasonal (spring and early summer) removal of predators from WPA's in Minnesota and North Dakota. Our objectives were to compare HR in uplands of WPA's with and without predators removed and to determine functional aspects of conducting predator removal.
Flow-frequency characteristics of Vermont streams
The safe and economical design of infrastructure in and near waterways and the effective management of flood-hazard areas require information on streamflow that may not be readily available. This report provides estimates of flow-frequency characteristics for gaged streams in Vermont and describes methods for estimating flow-frequency characteristics for ungaged streams. The flow-frequency characteristics investigated are the magnitude of peak discharges at recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years, and the magnitude of daily-mean discharges exceeded 25, 50, and 75 percent of the time. Peak-flow frequency characteristics for gaged streams were computed following the guidelines in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. To determine the peak-flow exceedance probabilities at stream-gaging stations in Vermont, a new generalized skew coefficient map for the State was developed. This new map has greater resolution and more current data than the existing National map. The standard error of the new map is 0.269. Two methods of extending streamflow record were applied to improve estimates of peak-flow frequency for streams with short flow records (10 to 15 years) in small drainage areas (sites less than 15 square miles). In the first method, a two-station comparison, data from a long-record site was used to adjust the frequency characteristics at the short-record site. This method was applied to 31 crest-stage gages--stations at which only instantaneous peak discharges are determined--in Vermont. The second method used rainfall-runoff modeling. Precipitation and evapotranspiration data from 1948 to 1999 for numerous climate data-collection sites were used as input to a model to simulate flows at 10 stream-gaging stations in Vermont. Also, methods are described to estimate flow-frequency characteristics for ungaged and unregulated rural streams in Vermont. The peak-flow estimating methods were developed by generalized-least-squares regression procedures with data from 138 U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations in Vermont and in adjacent areas of New York, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Quebec. The flow-duration (daily flow exceeded a given percentage of the time) estimating methods were developed by ordinary-least-squares regression procedures with data from 81 stream-gaging stations in Vermont and adjacent states.
Magma storage and transport timescales for the 1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption and implications for diffusion chronometry studies using time-series samples versus tephra deposits
Complex crystal cargo in basaltic eruptions has the potential to yield diverse insights on pre- and syn-eruptive timescales of magma storage and transport. Research on eruption products from the 1959 eruption from Kīlauea Iki Crater at Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i) demonstrates that time-series samples collected during an eruption can yield a wealth of information not accessible by studying the fall deposit alone. Major element zoning in olivine crystals illustrates four environments of magma storage that were variably mixed and progressively involved in the eruption. Diffusion timescales retrieved from crystals < 1 mm in size are typically much shorter than those from crystals > 1 mm, illustrating the additional complexity of information recorded by different grain sizes and olivine populations. The timescales can be divided into two groups: (1) t > 100 days reflect longer-term magma recharge into Kīlauea’s deep (8–10 km) reservoir system and (2) t < 100 days broadly correspond to a period of unrest and inflation beginning ~ 3 months prior to eruption. Some timescales reflect syn-eruptive processes, where diffusion began after the eruption onset. Progressive changes in zoning populations in the time-series scoriae samples illustrate how quickly diffusive re-equilibration can erase older magmatic histories and information and underscores that studies on fall deposits can lead to an incomplete record of magmatic processes. Thus, diffusion timescales from fall deposits alone should be cautiously interpreted with the caveat that they may be missing a substantial part of the total eruptive event and, therefore, the record of magmatic histories inferred from crystal cargo.
A comparison of three methods for assessing raptor diet during the breeding season
Video recording of prey deliveries to nests is a new technique for collecting data on raptor diet, but no thorough comparison of results from traditional methods based on collections of prey remains and pellets has been undertaken. We compared data from these 3 methods to determine relative merits of different methods for assessing raptor diet as part of a study of the breeding-season diet of northern goshawks ( Accipiter gentilis ) in Southeast Alaska. We applied these methods to 5 nests during each of the northern goshawk breeding seasons of 1998 and 1999 and identified 1,540 prey from deliveries, 209 prey from remains, and 209 prey from pellets. The proportions of birds and mammals varied among techniques, as did relative proportions of prey groups and age groups. Prey remains and pellets gave the least-similar diet descriptions. Over 2-day intervals during which data were collected using all 3 methods, prey-delivery data gave more individual prey and prey categories than the 2 other sources of information. We found that prey were not directly tracked in either prey remains or pellets compared with prey delivery videography. Analysis of prey-delivery videography provided the most complete description of diet, and we recommend that studies attempting to describe diet use this technique, at least as part of their methodology.
Distinguishing values from science in decision making: Setting harvest quotas for mountain lions in Montana
The relative roles of science and human values can be difficult to distinguish when informal processes are used to make complex and contentious decisions in wildlife management. Structured Decision Making (SDM) offers a formal process for making such decisions, where scientific results and concepts can be disentangled from the values of differing stakeholders. We used SDM to formally integrate science and human values for a citizen working group of ungulate hunting advocates, lion hunting advocates, and outfitters convened to address the contentious allocation of harvest quotas for mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) in west‐central Montana, USA, during 2014. A science team consisting of mountain lion biologists and population ecologists convened to support the working group. The science team used integrated population models that incorporated 4 estimates of mountain lion density to estimate population trajectories for 5 alternative harvest quotas developed by the working group. Results of the modeling predicted that effects of each harvest quota were consistent across the 4 density estimates; harvest quotas affected predicted population trajectories for 5 years after implementation but differences were not strong. Based on these results, the focus of the working group changed to differences in values among stakeholders that were the true impediment to allocating harvest quotas. By distinguishing roles of science and human values in this process, the working group was able to collaboratively recommend a compromise solution. This solution differed little from the status quo that had been the focus of debate, but the SDM process produced understanding and buy‐in among stakeholders involved, reducing disagreements, misunderstanding, and unproductive arguments founded on informal application of scientific data and concepts. Whereas investments involved in conducting SDM may be unnecessary for many decisions in wildlife management, the investment may be beneficial for complex, contentious, and multiobjective decisions that integrate science and human values.
Working toward a National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network: Vision, progress, and future directions
Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, impacting the water, energy, and carbon cycles. While in situ soil moisture monitoring networks are still developing, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to coordinate, integrate, or disseminate these diverse data sources in a synergistic way that can improve our ability to understand climate variability at the national, state, and local levels. Thus, a national strategy is needed to guide network deployment, sustainable network operation, data integration and dissemination, and user-focused product development. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network (NCSMMN) is a federally led, multi-institution effort that aims to address these needs by capitalizing on existing wide-ranging soil moisture monitoring activities, increasing the utility of observational data, and supporting their strategic application to the full range of decision-making needs. The goals of the NCSMMN are to 1) establish a national “network of networks” that effectively demonstrates data integration and operational coordination of diverse in situ networks; 2) build a community of practice around soil moisture measurement, interpretation, and application—a “network of people” that links data providers, researchers, and the public; and 3) support research and development (R&D) on techniques to merge in situ soil moisture data with remotely sensed and modeled hydrologic data to create user-friendly soil moisture maps and associated tools. The overarching mission of the NCSMMN is to provide coordinated high-quality, nationwide soil moisture information for the public good by supporting applications like drought and flood monitoring, water resource management, agricultural and forestry planning, and fire danger ratings.
Resilience in environmental risk and impact assessment: Concepts and measurement
Different resilience concepts have different assumptions about system dynamics, which has implications for resilience-based environmental risk and impact assessment. Engineering resilience (recovery) dominates in the risk assessment literature but this definition does not account for the possibility of ecosystems to exist in multiple regimes. In this paper we discuss resilience concepts and quantification methods. Specifically, we discuss when a system fails to show engineering resilience after disturbances, indicating a shift to a potentially undesired regime. We show quantification methods that can assess the stability of this new regime to inform managers about possibilities to transform the system to a more desired regime. We point out the usefulness of an adaptive inference, modelling and management approach that is based on reiterative testing of hypothesis. This process facilitates learning about, and reduces uncertainty arising from risk and impact.
Fast algorithm for automatically computing Strahler stream order
An efficient algorithm was developed to determine Strahler stream order for segments of stream networks represented in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The algorithm correctly assigns Strahler stream order in topologically complex situations such as braided streams and multiple drainage outlets. Execution time varies nearly linearly with the number of stream segments in the network. This technique is expected to be particularly useful for studying the topology of dense stream networks derived from digital elevation model data.
Comments on the species limits of certain North American birds, part 1
Although species limits of North American birds are relatively well-delineated, discrepancies among global lists identify species complexes that are subject to differences of opinion. As part of our work with the North American Classification Committee (NACC) of the American Ornithological Society, we here assess species limits in 11 such species complexes of North American birds: Spruce Grouse (Canachites canadensis), Band-tailed Pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata), Antillean Mango (Anthracothorax dominicus), Greenish Puffleg (Haplophaedia aureliae), Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani), Hook-billed Kite (Chondrohierax uncinatus), Sharp-shinned Hawk (Accipiter striatus), Elegant Trogon (Trogon elegans), American Three-toed Woodpecker (Picoides dorsalis), Golden-olive Woodpecker (Colaptes rubiginosus), and Olive-throated Parakeet (Eupsittula nana). We provide updated information on the taxonomic history of these species, and recommend updated taxonomic treatments by using published works, analysis of museum specimens, and citizen/community science databases. We hope this work will provide a foundation for future taxonomic research in these species complexes.
How hot is too hot? Live-trapped gray wolf rectal temperatures and 1-year survival
The ability of physically restrained and anesthetized wolves to thermoregulate is lessened and could lead to reduced survival, yet no information is available about this subject. Therefore, we analyzed rectal temperatures related to survival 1 year post-capture from 173 adult (non-pup) gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) captured in modified foot-hold traps for radiocollaring during June–August, 1988–2011, in the Superior National Forest of northeastern Minnesota, USA. The maximum observed rectal temperature (“maxtemp,” ° F, ° C) in each wolf during capture ( x  = 104.0, 40.0; SD = 2.0, 1.1; min. = 95.9, 35.5; max. = 108, 42.2) was not a significant predictor of survival to 1 year post-capture. Although no weather or morphometric variable was a significant predictor of maxtemps, wolves initially anesthetized with ketamine–xylazine rather than telazol®–xylazine averaged higher maxtemps. This information does not fully address possible effects of high body temperatures related to live-capture and handling of wolves, but it does provide a useful waypoint for future assessments of this relationship and a reassurance to wildlife practitioners that the maxtemps observed in our study did not appear to affect 1-year survival.
Quantity, composition, and source of sediment collected in sediment traps along the fringing coral reef off Molokai, Hawaii
Sediment traps were used to evaluate the frequency, cause, and relative intensity of sediment mobility/resuspension along the fringing coral reef off southern Molokai (February 2000–May 2002). Two storms with high rainfall, floods, and exceptionally high waves resulted in sediment collection rates > 1000 times higher than during non-storm periods, primarily because of sediment resuspension by waves. Based on quantity and composition of trapped sediment, floods recharged the reef flat with land-derived sediment, but had a low potential for burying coral on the fore reef when accompanied by high waves. The trapped sediments have low concentrations of anthropogenic metals. The magnetic properties of trapped sediment may provide information about the sources of land-derived sediment reaching the fore reef. The high trapping rate and low sediment cover indicate that coral surfaces on the fore reef are exposed to transient resuspended sediment, and that the traps do not measure net sediment accumulation on the reef surface.
Reconnaissance of the chemical quality of water in western Utah, Part I: Sink Valley area, drainage basins of Skull, Rush, and Government Creek Valleys, and the Dugway Valley-Old River Bed area
This report presents data collected during the first part of an investigation that was started in 1963 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Geological and Mineralogical Survey. The investigation has the purpose of providing information about the chemical quality of water in western Utah that will help interested parties to evaluate the suitability of the water for various uses in a broad area of Utah where little information of this type previously has been available. The area studied includes the Sink Valley area, the drainage basins of Skull, Rush, and Government Creek Valleys, and the Dugway Valley-Old River Bed area (fig. 1). Osamu Hattori and G. L. Hewitt started the investigation, and the author completed it and prepared the report.
Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in Columbia County, Wisconsin
This report describes the regional hydrogeology and groundwater resources of Columbia County, Wisconsin, and documents a regional groundwater flow model developed for the county. Regional hydrostratigraphic units include the unlithified aquifer, the upper bedrock aquifer, and the Elk Mound aquifer. The unlithified aquifer consists of deposits that range in composition from sand and gravel outwash and stream deposits to silty, sandy till. This aquifer is less than 25 ft thick in much of eastern Columbia County, but consists of permeable sand and gravel extending to over 250 ft in depth in the Wisconsin River valley bottom. The upper bedrock aquifer consists of Ordovician and upper Cambrian sedimentary formations, including sandstone, siltstone and dolomitic strata. The upper bedrock aquifer underlies the unlithified aquifer in eastern portions of the County, but is absent to the west, where these formations are largely eroded. The contact between the Tunnel City Group and Wonewoc Formation (Top of Elk Mound Group) forms the base of the upper bedrock aquifer. Bedding plane fractures are common to this aquifer, although only a portion of the observed fractures appear to be hydraulically active. The upper bedrock aquifer is a significant source of groundwater at a regional scale. Measurements of hydraulic head showed a difference of several feet across the bottom of this aquifer to the underlying Wonewoc sandstone, indicating that the basal facies of the Tunnel City Group functions as an aquitard separating the upper bedrock aquifer from the Elk Mound aquifer. Conditions vary considerably within this aquifer, depending on the local lithostratigraphy. For example, where present, the St. Lawrence Fm. and fine-grained intervals of the Tunnel City Group may be locally-extensive aquitards. The Elk Mound aquifer consists of Cambrian sandstone of the Wonewoc, Eau Claire, and Mount Simon Formations. It is thin to absent in several locations but ranges up to 600 ft in thickness over much of southern Columbia County. The variation in thickness is due in large part to the irregular topography of the underlying Precambrian crystalline rock, which generally serves as the base of the groundwater system. In neighboring counties, a fine-grained facies within the Eau Claire Fm. acts as a regionally extensive aquitard, referred to as the Eau Claire aquitard. Much of the data collected and compiled for this study suggest that shale or dolomite within the Eau Claire Fm., which is the equivalent of the Eau Claire aquitard, occurs only within southwestern Columbia County. There is little to no evidence of the Eau Claire aquitard over most of the county. Where the dolomite and shale are absent, the Elk Mound aquifer is relatively homogenous and does not include a mappable aquitard. A three-dimensional steady-state flow model presented here represents long-term, average conditions in the regional groundwater system since about 1970. The model was constructed with the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW-NWT code; it has six layers with a uniform grid of 300 ft x 300 ft cells. Layers 1 and 2 simulate the unlithified aquifer and layer 3 represents the upper bedrock aquifer. The Elk Mound aquifer is simulated by layers 4, 5 and 6, representing the Wonewoc, Eau Claire, and Mount Simon Formations, respectively. The model extends beyond the boundaries of Columbia County to ensure that hydrologic conditions simulated within the County are consistent with regional conditions. Recharge to the groundwater flow model is based on results from a GIS-based soil-water-balance model. Recharge was simulated with the unsaturated zone flow (UZF) package in MODFLOW. This approach is particularly useful for quantifying groundwater discharge to riparian wetlands because UZF tracks recharge that would lead to the simulated water table exceeding the land surface (represented by the top of model layer 1) and reroutes it to nearby stream segments. The model includes pumping from 256 wells, and 178 of these are located within Columbia County. Pumping totaled about 28 million gallons per day (mgd) on average since 1970, with 7.2 mgd of the withdrawal from within the County. Model calibration was performed with the PEST parameter estimation code. Calibration targets included approximately 3,900 head measurements and 91 stream flow measurements. Four vertical-head differences across hydrogeologic units, calculated from data collected during packer testing in wells in Columbia County, were also used in model calibration. Results from the calibrated model provide a groundwater balance for the region. About 83 percent of groundwater originates as recharge to the water table, 12 percent comes from leakage from streams, and about 5 percent of the groundwater flows into the model domain from surrounding areas. About 95 percent of the simulated groundwater discharges to steams and other surface water features, about 3 percent flows across model boundaries to surrounding areas of the groundwater system, and pumping accounts for 2 percent of discharge. Simulated flow paths are relatively local, from recharge in upland areas to discharge in nearby streams and wetlands. The model has many potential applications, including simulation of the effects of existing or proposed high-capacity wells, estimating the zone of contribution for these wells, and understanding relationships between surface water and groundwater. Future refinements to the model, such as incorporating new information about the extent and hydraulic characteristics of the Tunnel City Group, will improve its utility in understanding advective flow between the upper bedrock and Elk Mound aquifers. If seasonal or annual variations in the groundwater system are of interest, this steady-state model could be brought into a transient mode.
Peak-flow frequency estimates based on data through water year 2001 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in South Dakota
Numerous users, including the South Dakota Department of Transportation, have continuing needs for peak-flow information for the design of highway infrastructure and many other purposes. This report documents results from a cooperative study between the South Dakota Department of Transportation and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide an update of peak-flow frequency estimates for South Dakota. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are reported for 272 streamflow-gaging stations, which include most gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of systematic peak-flow records through water year 2001. Recommended procedures described in Bulletin 17B were used as primary guidelines for developing peak-flow frequency estimates. The computer program PEAKFQ developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to run the frequency analyses. Flood frequencies for all stations were initially analyzed by using standard Bulletin 17B default procedures for fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. The resulting preliminary frequency curves were then plotted on a log-probability scale, and fits of the curves with systematic data were evaluated. In many cases, results of the default Bulletin 17B analyses were determined to be satisfactory. In other cases, however, the results could be improved by using various alternative procedures for frequency analysis. Alternative procedures for some stations included adjustments to skew coefficients or use of user-defined low-outlier criteria. Peak-flow records for many gaging stations are strongly influenced by low- or zero-flow values. This situation often results in a frequency curve that plots substantially above the systematic record data points at the upper end of the frequency curve. Adjustments to low-outlier criteria reduced the influence of very small peak flows and generally focused the analyses on the upper parts of the frequency curves (10- to 500-year recurrence intervals). The most common alternative procedures involved several different methods to extend systematic records, which was done primarily to address biases resulting from nonrepresentative climatic conditions during several specific periods of record and to reduce inconsistencies among multiple gaging stations along common stream channels with different periods of record. In some cases, records for proximal stations could be combined directly. In other cases, the two-station comparison procedure recommended in Bulletin 17B was used to adjust the mean and standard deviation of the logs of the systematic data for a target station on the basis of correlation with concurrent records from a nearby long-term index station. In some other cases, a 'mixed-station procedure' was used to adjust the log-distributional parameters for a target station, on the basis of correlation with one or more index stations, for the purpose of fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. Historical adjustment procedures were applied to peak-flow frequency analyses for 17 South Dakota gaging stations. A historical adjustment period extending back to 1881 (121 years) was used for 12 gaging stations in the James and Big Sioux River Basins, and various other adjustment periods were used for additional stations. Large peak flows that occurred in 1969 and 1997 accounted for 13 of the 17 historical adjustments. Other years for which historical peak flows were used include 1957, 1962, 1992, and 2001. A regional mixed-population analysis was developed to address complications associated with many high outliers for the Black Hills region. This analysis included definition of two populations of flood events. The population of flood events that composes the main body of peak flows for a given station is considered the 'ordinary-peaks population,' and the population of unusually large peak flows that plot substantially above the main body of peak flows on log-probability scale is co