Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Geological Society of America Bulletin”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Repeatable source, path, and site effects from the 2019 Ridgecrest M7.1 earthquake sequence

We use a large instrumental dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence ( Rekoske et al. , 2019 , 2020 ) to examine repeatable source‐, path‐, and site‐specific ground motions. A mixed‐effects analysis is used to partition total residuals relative to the Boore et al. (2014 ; hereafter, BSSA14) ground‐motion model. We calculate the Arias intensity stress drop for the earthquakes and find strong correlation with our event terms, indicating that they are consistent with source processes. We look for physically meaningful trends in the partitioned residuals and test the ability of BSSA14 to capture the behavior we observe in the data. We find that BSSA14 is a good match to the median observations for M > 4 "> M > 4 M>4 ⁠ . However, we find bias for individual events, especially those with small magnitude and hypocentral depth ≥ 7    km "> depth ≥ 7 km depth≥7 km ⁠ , for which peak ground acceleration is underpredicted by a factor of 2.5. Although the site amplification term captures the median site response when all sites are considered together, it does not capture variations at individual stations across a range of site conditions. We find strong basin amplification in the Los Angeles, Ventura, and San Gabriel basins. We find weak amplification in the San Bernardino basin, which is contrary to simulation‐based findings showing a channeling effect from an event with a north–south azimuth. This and an additional set of ground motions from earthquakes southwest of Los Angeles suggest that there is an azimuth‐dependent southern California basin response related to the orientation of regional structures when ground motion from waves traveling south–north are compared with those in the east–west direction. These findings exhibit the power of large, spatially dense ground‐motion datasets and make clear that nonergodic models are a way to reduce bias and uncertainty in ground‐motion estimation for applications like the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model and the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning System.

California↗
USGS2009

Scenario liquefaction hazard maps of Santa Clara Valley, Northern California

Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. These curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M 7.8 event on the San Andreas fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M 6.7 event on the Hayward fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M 6.9 event on the Calaveras fault. Ground motions were estimated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is predicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M 7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5 m deep water table is assumed, and from 0.10 to 0.14, if a 5 m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1968

Earthquake of August 19, 1966, Varto Area, eastern Turkey

The earthquake of August 19, 1966, centered near Varto in eastern Turkey. It occurred at 12:22:09.6 G. M. T. and had a Richter magnitude of about 7. Intensities reached IX. Reportedly, 2,529 people were killed, 1,500 injured, and 19,013 buildings were demolished or heavily damaged. Surface fractures in three parallel fracture zones trending N65-70°W display both right-lateral strike slip and extension normal to the fractures. The trend and sense of displacement relate the fracturing to the North Anatolia fault system. Examples of geologic factors influencing damage include: (1) degree of saturation of the alluvium, (2) proximity to landslides, and (3) relation to surface faulting.

Near Varto in eastern Turkey↗
USGS2012

Extraordinary distance limits of landslides triggered by the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake

The 23 August 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (M w 5.8) was the largest to strike the eastern U.S. since 1897 and was felt over an extraordinarily large area. Although no large landslides occurred, the shaking did trigger many rock and soil falls from steep river banks and natural cliffs in the epicentral area and from steep road cuts along, and northwest of, the Blue Ridge Parkway. We mapped the occurrence of rock falls to determine distance limits that could be compared with those from other documented earthquakes. Studies of previous earthquakes indicated a maximum epicentral distance limit for landsliding of ~60 km for an M 5.8 earthquake; the maximum distance limit for the 2011 earthquake was 245 km, the largest exceedance of the historical limit ever recorded. Likewise, the previous maximum area affected by landslides for this magnitude was 1500 km 2 ; the area affected by landslides in the 2011 earthquake was 33,400 km 2 . These observations provide physical evidence that attenuation of strong shaking for eastern U.S. earthquakes is significantly lower than for plate‐boundary earthquakes. Also, distance limits parallel to the regional structural trend are greater than those that transect the structure, which suggests anisotropic attenuation related to the regional geologic structure. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the landslide distance limits is estimated to have been about 0.02–0.04g.

Virginia↗
USGS2000

High-resolution seismic reflection surveys and modeling across an area of high damage from the 1994 Northridge earthquake, Sherman Oaks, California

Approximately 3.6 km of P-wave seismic-reflection data were acquired along two orthogonal profiles in Sherman Oaks, California to determine whether shallow (less than 1-km depth) geologic structures contributed to the dramatic localized damage resulting from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Both lines, one along Matilija Avenue and one along Milbank Street, crossed areas of both high and low damage. We believe these data reveal a geologic structure in the upper 600 m that contributed to the increased earthquake ground shaking in the high-damage areas south of and along the Los Angeles River. Of interest in these data is a reflection interpreted to be from bedrock that can be traced to the north along the Matilija Avenue profile. This reflecting interface, dipping northward at 15°–22°, may be an important impedance boundary because it is the lower boundary of a wedge of overlying low-velocity sediments. The wedge thins and terminates in the area where we interpret down-warped reflections as evidence of a shallow subbasin. The low-velocity subbasin sediments (V s of 200 m/sec V p of 500 m/sec) may be up to 150 m thick beneath the channelized Los Angeles River. The area across the subbasin experienced greater earthquake damage from possible geometric focusing effects. Three-dimensional basin effects may be responsible for the variable damage pattern, but from these seismic profiles it is not possible to determine the regional structural trends. Two-dimensional elastic and SH-mode finite-difference modeling of the imaged structural geometry along Matilija Avenue suggests that a peak horizontal-velocity amplification factor of two-and-over can be explained in the high-damage area above the shallow subbasin and sediment wedge. Amplification factors up to 5 were previously observed in aftershock data, at frequencies of 2 to 6 Hz. Amplification in the elastic simulation at the Santa Monica Mountains range-front on the southern end of the Matilija profile, with the geologic layering and geometry interpreted from the seismic data, is also consistent with aftershock observations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2017

Long-term afterslip of the M6.0, 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake—Implications for forecasting amount and duration of afterslip on other major creeping faults

We present the longest record of surface afterslip on a continental strike‐slip fault for the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, from which we can derive critical information about the duration and predictability of afterslip relevant to urban displacement hazard applications. Surface slip associated with this event occurred entirely postseismically along the interseismically creeping (0.6–1.5 cm/yr) main trace of the San Andreas fault. Using the first year of afterslip data, the program AFTER correctly predicted the cumulative surface afterslip (maximum ∼35 cm) eventually attained. By 1 yr postearthquake, observed afterslip had accumulated to only ∼74% of its modeled final value u f in units of length. The 6‐yr data suggested final slip would be reached everywhere by ∼6–12 yrs. Parkfield’s afterslip lasted much longer (∼6–12 yrs) than afterslip following a 2014 M 6.0 event in Napa, California, where no interseismic creep was known, and its afterslip neared completion (∼97% of u f ) by 1 yr. The uncertainty in u f for the Napa event fell to ≤2 cm in only three months, versus in 2 yrs for the Parkfield event, mostly because duration of the power‐law stage of afterslip at Parkfield is much longer, ∼1000 (493–1666) days versus ∼100 (35–421) days for Napa. Because the urban Hayward fault near San Francisco, California, like the Parkfield section, exhibits interseismic creep in a similar geological regime, significant afterslip might last for up to a decade following an anticipated M ≥6.7 earthquake, potentially delaying postearthquake recovery.

California↗
USGS2003

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency–magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

California↗
USGS2025

Capturing the uncertainty of seismicity observations in earthquake rate estimates: Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

The rate of earthquakes in a region is a fundamental input to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We present a Monte Carlo method for computing that rate from seismicity catalogs while including a range of data and analysis uncertainties. This method is applied to regions for which the b value is assumed to be spatially invariant. Each region is broken down into epochs for which each epoch is estimated to have a uniform magnitude of completeness ( ⁠⁠ M c ). The distribution of earthquake rates for M ≥ M c is determined for each epoch by considering the Poisson likelihood of rates given the number of observed earthquakes with M ≥ M c ⁠ . We use a Monte Carlo process to include the uncertainty in b , ⁠ M c , and individual event magnitudes. The result for each epoch is the joint distribution of the Poisson rate of earthquakes with magnitudes larger than the minimum value used to calculate hazard ( ⁠⁠ M 1 ) and the Gutenberg–Richter b values, which control the extrapolation to other magnitudes. The rate for each region is either the duration‐weighted average over the epochs or, to better capture temporal variations, we also consider mixture models. The mixture models also provide an avenue to allow temporal variations in b values. To implement this joint distribution in a logic tree, we use the mean and 95% confidence branches, each of which is parameterized with an M ≥ M 1 rate and b value. We explore different ways of defining those branches, as well as non‐Gutenberg–Richter branches, and their impact on hazard estimates. The mean hazard, but not the fractiles, is robust with respect to these choices. To illustrate these new methods, we use synthetic data and catalogs from recent U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models for the Central and Eastern United States and for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

central and eastern United States, Puerto Rico, U.↗
USGS2025

Seismic response of rock towers at the Trona Pinnacles (U.S.A.) to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence: Theory, observations, and models

We analyze the seismic response of a class of fragile geologic features (FGFs), referred to as rock towers (RTs) at the Trona Pinnacles, a group of RTs in southern California that suffered strong shaking during the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. FGFs, including RTs, may provide maximum constraints on past earthquake shaking intensity, and thereby support probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). In a rare case study, we explore the hypothesis that RT structural integrity is time dependent, as damage accumulates progressively. We develop finite‐element method (FEM) models of the RTs using photogrammetric shape models. We validate the models by comparing numerical simulations of their response to broadband ground shaking with low‐intensity seismic recordings obtained at the Pinnacles. Results of our simulations are in good agreement with the seismic recordings of actual earthquake aftershocks. We next use the results of the FEM models to analyze the response and evolution of RTs. Our analyses elucidate the influence of geometry over their seismic response, providing a rationale that may explain the rarity of slender RTs at Trona: high‐aspect‐ratio structures that respond in bending develop detrimental tensile stresses that crack the rock, whereas low‐aspect‐ratio ones’ response also includes shearing, which does not compromise material integrity as much as tension. Field measurements with a rebound hammer support this finding, suggesting that the material around the base of slender rocks has been weakened relative to other parts of the RT. We also study how to define simplified mechanical models (“archetypes”) to predict the natural frequencies of RTs. Results from our work illuminate the fundamental mechanisms of seismic response and progressive failure of RTs, and open new avenues of research to potentially incorporate these geologic features as long‐return period constraints on PSHA, in ways analogous to those of the widely used precariously balanced rocks.

California↗
USGS2014

Frequency-dependent seismic attenuation in the eastern United States as observed from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence

Ground shaking due to earthquakes in the eastern United States (EUS) is felt at significantly greater distances than in the western United States (WUS) and for some earthquakes it has been shown to display a strong preferential direction. Shaking intensity variation can be due to propagation path effects, source directivity, and/or site amplification. In this paper, we use S and Lg waves recorded from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence, in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, to quantify attenuation as frequency‐dependent Q ( f ). In support of observations based on shaking intensity, we observe high Q values in the EUS relative to previous studies in the WUS with especially efficient propagation along the structural trend of the Appalachian mountains. Our analysis of Q ( f ) quantifies the path effects of the northeast‐trending felt distribution previously inferred from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It” data, historic intensity data, and the asymmetrical distribution of rockfalls and landslides.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2014

Structure and seismic hazard of the Ventura Avenue anticline and Ventura fault, California: Prospect for large, multisegment ruptures in the Western Transverse Ranges

The Ventura Avenue anticline is one of the fastest uplifting structures in southern California, rising at ∼5 mm/yr. We use well data and seismic reflection profiles to show that the anticline is underlain by the Ventura fault, which extends to seismogenic depth. Fault offset increases with depth, implying that the Ventura Avenue anticline is a fault‐propagation fold. A decrease in the uplift rate since ∼30±10 ka is consistent with the Ventura fault breaking through to the surface at that time and implies that the fault has a recent dip‐slip rate of ∼4.4–6.9 mm/yr. To the west, the Ventura fault and fold trend continues offshore as the Pitas Point fault and its associated hanging wall anticline. The Ventura–Pitas Point fault appears to flatten at about 7.5 km depth to a detachment, called the Sisar decollement, then step down on a blind thrust fault to the north. Other regional faults, including the San Cayetano and Red Mountain faults, link with this system at depth. We suggest that below 7.5 km, these faults may form a nearly continuous surface, posing the threat of large, multisegment earthquakes. Holocene marine terraces on the Ventura Avenue anticline suggest that it grows in discrete events with 5–10 m of uplift, with the latest event having occurred ∼800 years ago ( Rockwell, 2011 ). Uplift this large would require large earthquakes ( M w 7.7–8.1) involving the entire Ventura/Pitas Point system and possibly more structures along strike, such as the San Cayetano fault. Because of the local geography and geology, such events would be associated with significant ground shaking amplification and regional tsunamis.

California↗
USGS1996

The 25 March 1993 Scotts Mills, Oregon, earthquake and aftershock sequence: Spatial distribution, focal mechanisms, and the mount angel fault

The 25 March 1993 M L = 5.7 crustal earthquake near Scotts Mills, Oregon, was the largest earthquake to occur in the Pacific Northwest in over a decade. The mainshock was located at 45.033°N, 122.586°W and at a depth of about 15.1 km, based on arrival time data from the short-period Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network. Beginning about 12 h after the mainshock, investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey deployed 22 digital seismographs to record aftershocks. Using data from the temporary and permanent stations, we analyzed a subset of 50 aftershocks with quality locations. Hypocenters of these aftershocks lie on a northwest-trending steeply dipping plane (strike 290 ± 10°, dipping 60 ± 5° to the north-northeast), in agreement with the preferred slip plane of the mainshock focal mechanism solution (strike 294°, dipping 58° to the north-northeast). The planar structure defined by the aftershock locations may be a southeast continuation of the Mount Angel Fault, a reverse fault identified from both surface and subsurface evidence. The mapped southeast extent of the Mount Angel Fault is located less than 10 km west of the Scotts Mills epicentral region. In addition, the mainshock focal mechanism solution, with a combination of reverse motion and right-lateral strike slip, has a geometry and sense of motion consistent with the Mount Angel Fault. While aftershock focal mechanisms are varied, P axes are consistently oriented in a subhorizontal north-south direction. This earthquake sequence, together with the geological and geophysical evidence for the Mount Angel Fault, suggests a significant crustal earthquake hazard for this region of northwest Oregon.

Oregon↗
USGS2003

2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake engineering seismoscope recordings and Eastern North America ground-motion attenuation relations

Engineering seismoscope data collected at distances less than 300 km for the M 7.7 Bhuj, India, mainshock are compatible with ground-motion attenuation in eastern North America (ENA). The mainshock ground-motion data have been corrected to a common geological site condition using the factors of Joyner and Boore (2000) and a classification scheme of Quaternary or Tertiary sediments or rock. We then compare these data to ENA ground-motion attenuation relations. Despite uncertainties in recording method, geological site corrections, common tectonic setting, and the amount of regional seismic attenuation, the corrected Bhuj dataset agrees with the collective predictions by ENA ground-motion attenuation relations within a factor of 2. This level of agreement is within the dataset uncertainties and the normal variance for recorded earthquake ground motions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1995

Near real-time monitoring of seismic events and status of portable digital recorders using satellite telemetry

Near real-time monitoring of seismic events and status of portable 16-bit digital recorders has been established for arrays near Parkfield, Mammoth Lakes, and San Francisco, California. This monitoring system provides near real-time seismic event identification (rough location and magnitude) and a cost-effective means to maintain arrays at near 100% operational level. Principal objectives in the design of this system have been portability and low-cost telemetry. The system has been developed to use portable digital seismic recorders ( GEOS —General Earthquake Observation System) and portable data collection platforms ( DCP 's) for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GEOS) telemetry system. Data are transferred asynchronously from the GEOS seismic system through a microprocessor-controlled interface every 10 min. The interface stores, determines priority, converts, and synchronously transfers these data to a Sutron Corp. model 8004 DCP for transmission through the GEOS satellite telemetry system. Event parameters include trigger time, peak amplitude, time of peak amplitude, and event duration. Instrument configuration parameters, transmitted at system start-up time and every 24 hr, include recording parameters, trigger parameters, GEOS software version, clock reference, and location parameter. Instrument status includes battery voltage, number of events, and percentage of tape usage. These data are transmitted as appropriate to the U.S. Geological Survey satellite downlink and computers located in Menlo Park, California, where they are processed and displayed.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Combining multisite tsunami and deformation modeling to constrain slip distributions for the 1700 C.E. Cascadia earthquake

A major earthquake ruptured the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) on 26 January 1700. Key paleoseismic evidence associated with this event include tsunami deposits, stratigraphic evidence of coastal coseismic subsidence, written Japanese records of a tsunami unaccompanied by earthquake shaking, and margin‐wide turbidites found offshore and in lacustrine environments. Despite this wealth of independent clues, important details about this event remain unresolved. Dating uncertainties do not conclusively establish whether the proxies are from one earthquake or a sequence of them, and we have limited knowledge of the likely slip distributions of the event or events. Here, we use a catalog of 37,500 candidate synthetic ruptures between M w 7.8 and 9.2 and simulate their resulting coseismic deformation and tsunami inundation. Each model is then compared against estimated Japan tsunami arrivals, regional coastal subsidence records, and local paleotsunami deposits mapped at six different coastal marshes and one coastal lake along the CSZ. We find that seven full‐margin ruptures with a median magnitude of M w 9.1 satisfy all three constraints. We favor one M w 9.11 model that best matches all site paleoseismic observations and suggests that the Cascadia megathrust slipped up to ∼30 m and must have shallow geodetic coupling. We also find that some sequences composed of three or four ruptures can still satisfy the observations, yet no sequences of two ruptures can. Sequences are differentiated into three groups based on whether they contain a mainshock rupture located in the south (>44° N) or further north. All sequences contain unruptured portions of the megathrust and most contain mainshocks with peak slip above 40 m. The fit of the geologic evidence from sequences is poor in comparison to single‐event models. Therefore, sequences are generally less favored compared to full‐margin events.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Holocene fault reactivation in the eastern Cascades, Washington

Significant uncertainty remains concerning how and where crustal shortening occurs throughout the eastern Cascade Range in Washington State. Using light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery, we identified an ∼ 5 ‐ km ‐ long "> ∼5‐km‐long lineament in Swakane canyon near Wenatchee, roughly coincident with a strand of the Entiat fault. Topographic profiles across the lineament reveal a southwest‐side‐up break in slope, with an average of 2–3 m of vertical separation of the hillslope surface. We consider a range of possible origins for this feature, including differential erosion across a fault‐line scarp, slope failure (sackung or landslide), and surface deformation across an active fault strand. Based on trenching, radiocarbon and luminescence dating, and ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) across the lineament, we conclude that warped saprolite observed in the shallow subsurface is most consistent with southwest‐side‐up folding caused by blind reverse faulting at depth. Following this reasoning, dating of overlying colluvial deposits suggests that at least one Holocene earthquake occurred on this strand of the southern Entiat fault, with an approximate vertical separation of ≥ 1    m "> m ≥1 m . GPR reveals up to 4 m of cumulative vertical separation of the saprolite, suggesting a history of multiple earthquakes on the structure. Taken in context with other potential fault‐related lineaments along the Entiat fault, our interpretation of Holocene earthquakes in Swakane canyon could suggest reactivation of longer sections of the Entiat fault, as well as of other bedrock faults in the eastern Cascades. Although active erosion and slow strain rates lead to a subdued geomorphic expression of recent deformation, we conclude that the reactivated Entiat fault represents a seismogenic structure that should be considered in regional seismic hazard analyses. The difficulty of recognizing low‐slip‐rate structures in forested and mountainous terrain underscores the importance of additional lidar surveys and geological and geophysical studies for fully understanding seismic hazard in regions with infrequent but potentially large earthquakes.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Multiscale site-response mapping: A case study of Parkfield, California

The scale of previously proposed methods for mapping site-response ranges from global coverage down to individual urban regions. Typically, spatial coverage and accuracy are inversely related.We use the densely spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, to estimate the accuracy of different site-response mapping methods and demonstrate a method for integrating multiple site-response estimates from the site to the global scale. This method is simply a weighted mean of a suite of different estimates, where the weights are the inverse of the variance of the individual estimates. Thus, the dominant site-response model varies in space as a function of the accuracy of the different models. For mapping applications, site-response models should be judged in terms of both spatial coverage and the degree of correlation with observed amplifications. Performance varies with period, but in general the Parkfield data show that: (1) where a velocity profile is available, the square-rootof- impedance (SRI) method outperforms the measured VS30 (30 m divided by the S-wave travel time to 30 m depth) and (2) where velocity profiles are unavailable, the topographic slope method outperforms surficial geology for short periods, but geology outperforms slope at longer periods. We develop new equations to estimate site response from topographic slope, derived from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2019

Relaxing segmentation on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Impact on seismic hazard

The multisegment Wasatch fault zone is a well-studied normal fault in the western United States that has paleoseismic evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. Along the 270-km-long central part of the fault, four primary structural complexities provide possible along-strike limits to these ruptures and form the basis for models of fault segmentation. Here, we assess the impact that the Wasatch fault segmentation model has on seismic hazard by evaluating the time-independent long-term rate of ruptures on the fault that satisfy fault slip rates and paleoseismic event rates, adapting standard inverse theory used in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3), and implementing a segmentation constraint where ruptures across primary structural complexities are penalized. We define three models with varying degrees of rupture penalization: (1) segmented (ruptures confined to individual segments), (2) penalized (multi-segment ruptures allowed, but penalized), and (3) unsegmented (all ruptures allowed). Seismic-hazard results show that on average, hazard is highest for the segmented model, where seismic moment is accommodated by frequent moderate (moment magnitude, M w 6.2–6.8) earthquakes. The unsegmented model yields the lowest average seismic hazard because part of the seismic moment is accommodated by large (M w 6.9–7.9), but infrequent ruptures. We compare these results to model differences derived from other inputs such as slip rate and magnitude scaling relationships and conclude that segmentation exerts a primary control on seismic hazard. This study demonstrates the need for additional geologic constraints on rupture extent and methods by which these observations can be included in hazard-modeling efforts.

Utah↗