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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS1987

Estimated sediment deposition in Lake Corpus Christi, Texas, 1972-85

The investigation of sediment deposition in Lake Corpus Christi was initiated by researching the published and unpublished sediment data for the 1972-85 water years for stations located upstream and downstream of the lake. Regression analysis was used to fill in the missing data. Data were tabulated for monthly discharge (acre-feet) and sediment load (tons, acre-feet, and percent by weight). Yearly totals and cumulative averages were computed and included in the tables. An estimated 10,300 acre-feet (wet volume) of sediment has been deposited in Lake Corpus Christi during the 14-year period of record (1972-85), an average of 736 acre-feet per year (wet volume). An earlier study by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, based on 1942-48 changes of lake bottom contours, estimated that 736 acre-feet per year of suspended sediment had entered Lake Corpus Christi during that 6-year period. Some difference was found in comparison of the results of the U.S. Geological Survey (Water Resources Division) study and the McCaughan and Etheridge Consulting Engineers study. Total sediment outflow from Lake Corpus Christi was estimated at 177 acre-feet (dry) by the Geological Survey and 1,070 acre-feet (dry) by McCaughan and Etheridge Consulting Engineers. This difference may be due to construction of a new dam, completed in 1958, that is higher and inundated the old dam.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1996

The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗
USGS2001

Factors controlling navigation-channel Shoaling in Laguna Madre, Texas

Shoaling in the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway of Laguna Madre, Tex., is caused primarily by recycling of dredged sediments. Sediment recycling, which is controlled by water depth and location with respect to the predominant wind-driven currents, is minimal where dredged material is placed on tidal flats that are either flooded infrequently or where the water is extremely shallow. In contrast, nearly all of the dredged material placed in open water >1.5 m deep is reworked and either transported back into the channel or dispersed into the surrounding lagoon. A sediment flux analysis incorporating geotechnical properties demonstrated that erosion and not postemplacement compaction caused most sediment losses from the placement areas. Comparing sediment properties in the placement areas and natural lagoon indicated that the remaining dredged material is mostly a residual of initial channel construction. Experimental containment designs (shallow subaqueous mound, submerged levee, and emergent levee) constructed in high-maintenance areas to reduce reworking did not retain large volumes of dredged material. The emergent levee provided the greatest retention potential approximately 2 years after construction.

Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engin↗
USGS2026

Benchmark dataset of historical annual peak floods classified by causal mechanisms for select US river basins

Considering the causal mechanisms of floods can improve estimates of flood recurrence intervals given that certain flood types can be associated with higher magnitude and more damaging floods. However, few verified datasets of flood types are available to validate the semiautomated and automated classification algorithms needed to apply flood-typing across large hydrologically diverse regions. To address this gap, a benchmark dataset of manually classified flood types was compiled for 1,763 annual maximum flood peaks from 18 stream gauges in six different river basins across the conterminous United States from 1851 to 2022. Within each basin, three representative stream gauges were selected for manual flood typing. A flexible classification framework is introduced that facilitates flood typing across hydrologically diverse regions and accommodates unique combinations of weather and antecedent watershed conditions specific to each region. Floods were manually typed by domain experts using multiple lines of evidence to identify a primary surface water input of each flood (rainfall, snowmelt, or both) and, if relevant, associated storm type and secondary causal mechanisms characterizing antecedent watershed conditions. Across all the study basins, 49% of historical annual maximum flood peaks were attributable to rainfall, 28% to snowmelt, 22% to mixed precipitation, and 1% could not be assigned to a mechanism due to missing or incomplete data. The proposed flood-typing schema supports varying levels of flood typing specificity required for mixed population flood-frequency analysis, flood-type-specific design hydrographs, water quality response studies, and additional applications. This detailed, manually determined benchmark dataset serves as a resource that can be used developing and validating automated or machine learning-based algorithms capable of operationalizing expanded flood peak information.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2005

Study on evaluation methods for Rayleigh wave dispersion characteristic

The evaluation of Rayleigh wave dispersion characteristic is the key step for detecting S-wave velocity structure. By comparing the dispersion curves directly with the spectra analysis of surface waves (SASW) method, rather than comparing the S-wave velocity structure, the validity and precision of microtremor-array method (MAM) can be evaluated more objectively. The results from the China - US joint surface wave investigation in 26 sites in Tangshan, China, show that the MAM has the same precision with SASW method in 83% of the 26 sites. The MAM is valid for Rayleigh wave dispersion characteristic testing and has great application potentiality for site S-wave velocity structure detection.

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration↗
USGS2023

Frequent transitions in mating-type locus chromosomal organization in Malassezia and early steps in sexual reproduction

Fungi in the basidiomycete genus Malassezia are the most prevalent eukaryotic microbes resident on the skin of human and other warm-blooded animals and have been implicated in skin diseases and systemic disorders. Analysis of Malassezia genomes revealed that key adaptations to the skin microenvironment have a direct genomic basis, and the identification of mating/meiotic genes suggests a capacity to reproduce sexually, even though no sexual cycle has yet been observed. In contrast to other bipolar or tetrapolar basidiomycetes that have either two linked mating-type-determining ( MAT ) loci or two MAT loci on separate chromosomes, in Malassezia species studied thus far the two MAT loci are arranged in a pseudobipolar configuration (linked on the same chromosome but capable of recombining). By generating additional chromosome-level genome assemblies, and an improved Malassezia phylogeny, we infer that the pseudobipolar arrangement was the ancestral state of this group and revealed six independent transitions to tetrapolarity, seemingly driven by centromere fission or translocations in centromere-flanking regions. Additionally, in an approach to uncover a sexual cycle, Malassezia furfur strains were engineered to express different MAT alleles in the same cell. The resulting strains produce hyphae reminiscent of early steps in sexual development and display upregulation of genes associated with sexual development as well as others encoding lipases and a protease potentially relevant for pathogenesis of the fungus. Our study reveals a previously unseen genomic relocation of mating-type loci in fungi and provides insight toward the identification of a sexual cycle in Malassezia , with possible implications for pathogenicity.

PNAS↗
USGS2009

Geographic information systems, remote sensing, and spatial analysis activities in Texas, 2008-09

Geographic information system (GIS) technology has become an important tool for scientific investigation, resource management, and environmental planning. A GIS is a computer-aided system capable of collecting, storing, analyzing, and displaying spatially referenced digital data. GIS technology is useful for analyzing a wide variety of spatial data. Remote sensing involves collecting remotely sensed data, such as satellite imagery, aerial photography, or radar images, and analyzing the data to gather information or investigate trends about the environment or the Earth's surface. Spatial analysis combines remotely sensed, thematic, statistical, quantitative, and geographical data through overlay, modeling, and other analytical techniques to investigate specific research questions. It is the combination of data formats and analysis techniques that has made GIS an essential tool in scientific investigations. This fact sheet presents information about the technical capabilities and project activities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Texas Water Science Center (TWSC) GIS Workgroup during 2008 and 2009. After a summary of GIS Workgroup capabilities, brief descriptions of activities by project at the local and national levels are presented. Projects are grouped by the fiscal year (October-September 2008 or 2009) the project ends and include overviews, project images, and Internet links to additional project information and related publications or articles.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

A probabilistic assessment methodology for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery and associated carbon dioxide retention

The U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of the potential volume of hydrocarbons recoverable by injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into known oil reservoirs with historical production. The implementation of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) techniques could increase the U.S. recoverable hydrocarbon resource base. Use of anthropogenic CO 2 in the CO 2 -EOR process could reduce the amount of CO 2 released to the atmosphere by allowing a percentage of the injected CO 2 to remain in reservoir pore space once occupied by produced oil and water or by CO 2 dissolution in oil and water in the reservoir. The USGS has developed a new methodology for the national assessment of technically recoverable oil resources that may be produced by using current CO 2 -EOR technologies. The methodology relies on a proprietary reservoir-level database, the comprehensive resource database (CRD). The CRD incorporates commercially available geologic and engineering data, and USGS-defined play averages or province averages of reservoir data were used to populate incomplete records. Values from the CRD are used to estimate the original oil in place ( OOIP ) for each reservoir. The inputs are reviewed by USGS geologists, particularly when play or province averages have been used. Monte Carlo simulation is used to produce a numerical probability distribution for the OOIP for each reservoir, with the mean defined as the value of the OOIP in the CRD. A reservoir model (CO 2 Prophet, developed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Texaco, Inc.) is used to determine the incremental recovery factors for oil during the CO 2 -EOR process, on an individual reservoir basis. The model is also used to estimate the volume of CO 2 remaining in the reservoir after the CO 2 -EOR process is complete. Empirical decline curve analysis and comparison with data from published papers and reports on CO 2 -EOR projects are utilized to substantiate the simulation results. Numerical distributions of recovery factors are prepared for variations in the reservoir lithology (clastic or carbonate). The distribution of incremental oil is computed by multiplying the appropriate probability distribution of recovery factors by the individual reservoir distribution of the OOIP . A way to estimate the CO 2 remaining in the reservoir after the completion of the CO 2 -EOR process is also included in the methodology. Assessment results will be aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. This assessment methodology has been tested on the Horseshoe Atoll, Upper Pennsylvanian-Wolfcampian play in the Permian Basin Province in Texas; the play consists of 27 reservoirs having at least 2 billion barrels of OOIP that are amenable to the CO 2 -EOR process. The play was selected as a test case because CO 2 -EOR production data and published reports are available for several reservoirs within the play. Preliminary estimates of oil recoverable by implementation of miscible CO 2 -EOR are comparable to those reported in the literature and obtained by reservoir decline curve analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Comparison of machine learning approaches used to identify the drivers of Bakken oil well productivity

Geologists and petroleum engineers have struggled to identify the mechanisms that drive productivity in horizontal hydraulically fractured oil wells. The machine learning algorithms of Random Forest (RF), gradient boosting trees (GBT) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were applied to a dataset containing 7311 horizontal hydraulically fractured wells drilled into the middle member of the Bakken Formation from 2010 through 2017. The initial goal is to use these data‐driven machine learning algorithms to identify the most important explanatory predictors of well productivity within nine subareas and the composite area. Predictor variables representing initial gas production, the initial 180‐day water cut, and vertical depth vary spatially and are identified with geologically favorable areas. Well‐completion predictors include the well lateral length, number of fracture stages, volume of proppant per stage, and the volume of injected fluids per stage. The performance of methods is compared based on a common test sample. The analysis then examines the comparative predictive performance of the three algorithms for 1330 wells that had initiated production after the initial 7311 well sample had been producing. The computations of predictor importance identified the initial 180‐day water cut and the 30‐day initial gas production predictors as having a dominant influence in most subareas and for the composite area. The relative importance of well completion predictor variables, that is, the number of fracture stages per well, volume of injected proppant per stage, volume of injected fluids per stage, and lateral length, varied considerably across the subareas. For the common test or holdout sample, the models calibrated with the XGBoost algorithm had superior predictive power. The predictive power of all the algorithms trained on the data from the original sample suffered some loss when tested with a sample of wells that had started production after the end of that period. Implications of the empirical findings and strategies to mitigate loss of predictive power are discussed in the concluding section.

Statistical Analysis and Data Mining↗
USGS2010

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center-Fiscal Year 2009 Annual Report

The Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) facility focused on providing science and imagery to better understand our Earth. As part of the USGS Geography Discipline, EROS contributes to the Land Remote Sensing (LRS) Program, the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program, and the National Geospatial Program (NGP), as well as our Federal partners and cooperators. The work of the Center is shaped by the Earth sciences, the missions of our stakeholders, and implemented through strong program and project management and application of state-of-the-art information technologies. Fundamentally, EROS contributes to the understanding of a changing Earth through 'research to operations' activities that include developing, implementing, and operating remote sensing based terrestrial monitoring capabilities needed to address interdisciplinary science and applications objectives at all levels-both nationally and internationally. The Center's programs and projects continually strive to meet and/or exceed the changing needs of the USGS, the Department of the Interior, our Nation, and international constituents. The Center's multidisciplinary staff uses their unique expertise in remote sensing science and technologies to conduct basic and applied research, data acquisition, systems engineering, information access and management, and archive preservation to address the Nation's most critical needs. Of particular note is the role of EROS as the primary provider of Landsat data, the longest comprehensive global land Earth observation record ever collected. This report is intended to provide an overview of the scientific and engineering achievements and illustrate the range and scope of the activities and accomplishments at EROS throughout fiscal year (FY) 2009. Additional information concerning the scientific, engineering, and operational achievements can be obtained from the scientific papers and other documents published by EROS staff. We welcome comments and follow-up questions on any aspect of this Annual Report and invite any of our customers or partners to contact us at their convenience. To communicate with us, or for more information about EROS, contact: Communications and Outreach, USGS EROS Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, South Dakota 57198, jsnelson@usgs.gov, http://eros.usgs.gov/.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Particle tracer analysis for submerged berm placement of dredged material near South Padre Island, Texas

The fate of unconfined dredged sediment placed as a submerged “feeder” berm in the nearshore region of South Padre Island (SPI), Texas, was investigated through a particle tracer study over the duration of 15 months. Unconfined sediment feeder systems can be a desirable alternative to traditional direct beach placement of nourishment material because the feeder systems are less intrusive to the beach environment and often less expensive. Placing sediment as close to the active beach profile, as practicable, and relying on natural nearshore processes to slowly distribute the sediment to the beach can keep a finite resource within the littoral zone. One challenge with this indirect approach is predicting the short- and long-term effects on the coastal system and shoreline in light of the complex nearshore dynamics involved. This study aims at elucidating sediment transport pathways at SPI after tracer release over the feeder berm via assessment of tracer particle counts obtained from nine sediment sampling campaigns (950 surface-sediment grab samples) between August 2018 and November 2019, covering a grid of 60 seabed and 50 dry beach locations. Tracer counts were performed in the laboratory making use of the fluorescent and ferromagnetic properties of the engineered particles to separate them from other sediment material. Results indicate that although the highest tracer counts remained near the initial release site of the feeder berm during the duration of the study, appreciable amounts of tracer moved throughout the study region. Even though fluctuations of tracer migration were observed, the most prominent appearance of tracer particles outside the initial placement site occurred south and immediately west of it, indicating net alongshore and onshore transport in those directions. Relatively, few tracer particles were found on the dry beach, indicating appreciable deposition of feeder material there may take years rather than months.

Texas↗
USGS2024

What can conservation culturomics tell us about factors driving public interest in aquatic endangered species

The field of “Conservation Culturomics” uses large datasets of freely available web-data to understand cultural patterns and public interests related to conservation topics. We used a popular culturomics tool based on search engine usage to investigate how the U.S. Endangered Species Act listing actions may influence public interest in imperiled freshwater taxa. Yet questions remain regarding the acceptable applications of these data leading us to also evaluate aspects of data quality such as repeatability of timeseries and spatial relative search volume (RSV) data for our search terms. We discovered that low search volume for many freshwater species restricted the number of species that could be analyzed and may signal low public awareness for these species. Low repeatability of timeseries relative search volume data suggests that greater scrutiny and quality control methods may be needed when analyzing these data. For species that had the highest data repeatability, there were positive associations of listing actions and relative search volume for threatened and endangered species. Anomalous peaks of search volume were sometimes but not always related to listing actions or online news stories. Spatial analysis indicated that search volumes were highest in states within species’ native ranges suggesting that people are most interested in species that occur near where they live.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2018

An on-campus well field for hydrogeophysics education and undergraduate research

The emerging subdiscipline of hydrogeophysics is underdeveloped in undergraduate curricula relative to its importance in professional engineering/environmental practice. In 2001, the Bucknell Department of Geology initiated efforts to refocus an undergraduate geophysics course on near-surface geophysical methods for hydrologic, environmental, and engineering problems. In addition to offering students practical experience, treatment of hydrogeophysics provides important pedagogical opportunities. Field-based hydrogeophysics labs challenge students to integrate concepts from other geology courses, as well as from physics, math, and chemistry. We faced two challenges in revising our geophysics course: (1) access to wells for field exercises on borehole geophysics; and (2) the costs of acquiring and maintaining equipment. We pursued two strategies to solve these problems. First, we established an on-campus well field, which serves as a field laboratory for downhole and cross-hole experiments. Second, we incorporated field demonstrations and lectures by professional geoscientists, including alumni, into our courses. By adding field exercises to our syllabi and promoting undergraduate research, we are building a cutting-edge dataset that includes televiewer and standard wellbore logging, cross-hole tomography, and hydraulic-test data. Student-led analysis of these data has already provided valuable insights into the control of fractures on aquifer properties, and these observations are being combined with outcrop studies to place our results in a more regional context.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2026

Inference of pattern-based geological CO2 sequestration and oil recovery potential in a commingled main pay and residual oil zone CO2-EOR flood

Several detailed studies have shown that residual oil zones (ROZs) can present significant resources for additional hydrocarbon recovery as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration via enhanced oil recovery by injecting CO 2 (CO 2 -EOR). Field development strategies included new wells drilled dedicated to main pay zones (MPZ) and ROZs, or existing wells in MPZs deepened to ROZs for commingled injection-production using different well patterns. The latter presented a challenge when discerning the injection and production from each of the zones, and for subsequent quantification of CO 2 sequestration and EOR potential from different patterns and from the field. In this paper, an innovative method for analyzing commingled injections and productions from MPZs and ROZs, with application to pattern-based data from four staggered line drive patterns in Wasson Field's Denver Unit, Texas, USA, was developed. Decline curve and ratio-trend methods were used as means of history-matching and forecasting. Cumulative production-time and cumulative production-rate data for oil, gas, and water, as well as water-oil ratio (WOR) and gas-oil ratio (GOR), were analyzed along with injection data for time intervals covering major injection events in MPZ, or MPZ and ROZ combined. A combined analysis enabled inference of allocation of fluids into different zones during WAG (water alternating gas) injection and thereby estimation of CO 2 storage, utilization, and retention in different zones as a function of total injection. Results show that ROZs generally present higher CO 2 sequestration potential compared to MPZs, and a comparable incremental oil recovery factor of ∼20%, on average. Results based on ratio analysis further show that while the WOR trend of the pattern production is mostly dominated and controlled by ROZ, GOR is controlled by both intervals. Although the method relying on decline curves and the approach used in zonal fluid allocations are subject to their limitations, this study presents a practical and innovative well-pattern-based method to infer and forecast CO 2 sequestration and oil recovery quantities and fluid ratios from MPZs and ROZs in commingled operations and highlight the added potential offered by ROZs.

Texas↗
USGS2022

Use of high-resolution topobathymetry to assess shoreline topography and potential future development of a slack water harbor near Dardanelle, Arkansas, October 2021

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Southwestern Division, Little Rock District Civil Works program has a mission to maintain cohesion between physical and naturally developed environments. The USACE authorized the development of an off-channel harbor (hereinafter referred to as the “proposed slack water harbor”) along the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System at river mile 202.6, and an initial evaluation of shoreline stability and adjacent land near the proposed harbor was considered essential in establishing a baseline for potential effects and future monitoring. In October 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the USACE, completed high-resolution bathymetric (underwater elevation) and topographic surveys of the Arkansas River and a quarry at the location of the proposed slack water harbor near Dardanelle, Arkansas, using a combination of multibeam sound navigation and ranging (sonar) and high-resolution, low-altitude aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) data to provide data and analysis needed for as-built information and future monitoring of river shoreline and floodplain management and maintenance. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system, which consists of a multibeam echosounder and an inertial navigation system mounted on a marine survey vessel. Data were collected as the vessel traversed the river and quarry along overlapping survey lines distributed throughout the areas. Topographic data were collected as a lidar point cloud using an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) with a YellowScan Vx20–100 lidar payload, which consists of the lidar scanner and an inertial navigation system. The lidar point cloud data were collected as the UAS followed two sets of parallel transect lines, oriented perpendicular to each other (nominally north to south and east to west) on separate flights. The bathymetric and UAS topographic datasets were combined with topographic data extracted from publicly available aerial lidar data collected in 2014 to create a multisource point cloud classified as “ground” (code 2) according to the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing standard lidar point classes in the proposed harbor area and surroundings, from which topographic contours were derived.

Arkansas↗
USGS2005

Review of the transport of selected radionuclides in the interim risk assessment for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Waste Area Group 7 Operable Unit 7-13/14, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct an independent technical review of the Interim Risk Assessment (IRA) and Contaminant Screening for the Waste Area Group 7 (WAG-7) Remedial Investigation, the draft Addendum to the Work Plan for Operable Unit 7-13/14 WAG-7 comprehensive Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study (RI/FS), and supporting documents that were prepared by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies, Inc. The purpose of the technical review was to assess the data and geotechnical approaches that were used to estimate future risks associated with the release of the actinides americium, uranium, neptunium, and plutonium to the Snake River Plain aquifer from wastes buried in pits and trenches at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). The SDA is located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex in southeastern Idaho within the boundaries of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Radionuclides have been buried in pits and trenches at the SDA since 1957 and 1952, respectively. Burial of transuranic wastes was discontinued in 1982. The five specific tasks associated with this review were defined in a ?Proposed Scope of Work? prepared by the DOE, and a follow-up workshop held in June 1998. The specific tasks were (1) to review the radionuclide sampling data to determine how reliable and significant are the reported radionuclide detections and how reliable is the ongoing sampling program, (2) to assess the physical and chemical processes that logically can be invoked to explain true detections, (3) to determine if distribution coefficients that were used in the IRA are reliable and if they have been applied properly, (4) to determine if transport model predictions are technically sound, and (5) to identify issues needing resolution to determine technical adequacy of the risk assessment analysis, and what additional work is required to resolve those issues.

Idaho↗
USGS2017

A simulation method for combining hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag tracks to predict the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass under future engineering scenarios

During water year 2016 the U.S. Geological Survey California Water Science Center (USGS) collaborated with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to conduct a joint hydrodynamic and fisheries study to acquire data that could be used to evaluate the effects of proposed modifications to the Fremont Weir on outmigrating juvenile Chinook salmon. During this study the USGS surgically implanted acoustic tags in juvenile late fall run Chinook salmon from the Coleman National Fish Hatchery, released the acoustically tagged juvenile salmon into the Sacramento River upstream of the Fremont Weir, and tracked their movements as they emigrated past the western end of the Fremont Weir. The USGS analyzed tracking data from the acoustically tagged juvenile salmon along with detailed hydrodynamic data collected in the Sacramento River during the winter/spring of water year 2016 in the vicinity of the western end of the Fremont Weir to assess the potential for enhancing the entrainment of Sacramento River Chinook salmon onto the Yolo Bypass under six different Fremont Weir modification scenarios. Each modification scenario consists of a notch or multiple notches in the Fremont Weir which are designed to divert a portion of the Sacramento River onto the Yolo Bypass when the Sacramento River is below the crest of the Fremont Weir. The primary goal of this entrainment analysis was to investigate how the location of the notch or notches in each scenario affected the entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon onto the Yolo Bypass, and to predict the notch location or locations that would result in maximum entrainment under each modification scenario. Stumpner et al.’s (in review) analysis of hydraulic data collected during the 2016 study period showed that backwater effects in the Sacramento River created significant variability in the relationship between Sacramento River stage and the proportion of the Sacramento River flow that we expect to be diverted onto the Yolo Bypass under the modification scenarios. Because of this variability, accurately evaluating the entrainment potential of possible notch locations for each scenario required combining historic abundance data for juvenile Sacramento River Chinook salmon with historic hydraulic data for the Sacramento River in the vicinity of the Fremont Weir, so that the entrainment estimates would reflect the covariance between Sacramento River stage, Sacramento River discharge, and juvenile salmon abundance within the historic record. We used a Monte Carlo simulation framework to combine the high resolution hydrodynamic data and acoustic tag track data collected in 2016 with historic juvenile salmon abundance, Sacramento River stage, and Sacramento River discharge data from a period spanning water years 1996-2010 to assess the entrainment potential of different weir modification scenarios under historic conditions. The scenarios we simulated consisted of four single notch configurations, and two multiple notch configurations in the vicinity of the western end of the Fremont Weir. For each notch configuration the 15-water-year entrainment simulation was repeated for 63 possible notch locations in the vicinity of the western end of the Fremont Weir. This approach allowed us to assess the effect of notch location on the entrainment of juvenile salmonids onto the Yolo Bypass for each of the six notch configurations that we evaluated. The entrainment simulations showed that the location of each notch configuration had a major impact on the entrainment for each scenario; the predicted entrainment of some scenarios varied by as much as 400% based on where the notch (or notches) was (were) located in the study area. All of the single notch scenarios performed best when they were located within a 330 ft (100 meter) long section of the Sacramento River bank adjacent to the western terminus of the Fremont Weir (Table 1). Both of the multiple notch scenarios performed best when their upstream notches were located about 660 ft (200 meters) upstream of the western terminus of the Fremont Weir (Table 1). The results of the entrainment simulations indicated that for each notch configuration the same notch location produced near-maximum entrainment regardless of run abundance timing; this result suggests that there are areas within the study are where a notch (or notches) can be sited to achieve maximum entrainment for all runs (barring significant behavioral or physiological differences between runs). In addition, the simulation results indicate that for each notch configuration the same location is expected to produce nearmaximum entrainment for both wet water years and dry water years. Based on the results of the entrainment simulation we make three general recommendations for strategies to improve the entrainment potential of a notch in the Fremont Weir: 1) Comparisons between the maximum entrainment potential for each scenario suggested that total entrainment of winter run, spring run, and fall run salmon onto the Yolo Bypass can be increased by increasing the amount of water entering a notch when the Sacramento River stage is between 19 ft and 22 ft NAVD88; this could be accomplished by lowering notch invert elevations or by adding a control section to the Sacramento River to raise stage for a given discharge. 2) The relationship between Sacramento River stage and entrainment for each scenario indicated that entrainment efficiency for each scenario declined significantly once Sacramento River stage exceeded bankfull (approximately 28.5 ft NAVD88). This effect was likely due to inundation of the floodplain between the Sacramento River and the Fremont Weir; Stumpner et. al (In Review) have documented a reduction in the strength of the secondary circulation and centralization of the downwelling zone in the Sacramento River when this floodplain is inundated. Therefore, increasing the height of the river right bank of the Sacramento River to coincide with the height of the Fremont Weir is recommended to increase entrainment at higher stages. 3) Bathymetric features upstream of notch openings appeared to have a major impact on the entrainment potential of the simulated notches. For this reason we recommend taking care to avoid siting notches immediately downstream of bank features that alter the sidewall boundary layer, and we expect that smoothing the bank bathymetry upstream of a notch will enhance entrainment. Finally, we caution that the entrainment simulation was based on the behavior of large hatchery smolts, so it is likely that our results will be sensitive to any differences in behavior and physiology between these hatchery surrogates and naturally migrating juvenile salmon.

California↗
USGS2009

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving PAGER losses

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability.

Natural Hazards↗