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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

A vectorial capacity product to monitor changing malaria transmission potential in epidemic regions of Africa

Rainfall and temperature are two of the major factors triggering malaria epidemics in warm semi-arid (desert-fringe) and high altitude (highland-fringe) epidemic risk areas. The ability of the mosquitoes to transmit Plasmodium spp. is dependent upon a series of biological features generally referred to as vectorial capacity. In this study, the vectorial capacity model (VCAP) was expanded to include the influence of rainfall and temperature variables on malaria transmission potential. Data from two remote sensing products were used to monitor rainfall and temperature and were integrated into the VCAP model. The expanded model was tested in Eritrea and Madagascar to check the viability of the approach. The analysis of VCAP in relation to rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence data in these regions shows that the expanded VCAP correctly tracks the risk of malaria both in regions where rainfall is the limiting factor and in regions where temperature is the limiting factor. The VCAP maps are currently offered as an experimental resource for testing within Malaria Early Warning applications in epidemic prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa. User feedback is currently being collected in preparation for further evaluation and refinement of the VCAP model.

Journal of Tropical Medicine↗

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2022 Report)

A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015; Breed et al., 2018; Winkler et al., 2018; NASEM, 2023). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities to support CPNPP in FY22 followed the FY22 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015), Biden-Harris Administration Executive Order 14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad), and Department of Interior Priority #4 (Working to conserve at least 30% each of our lands and waters by the year 2030). Research activities in FY22 centered on landscape genomics, monitoring common garden and seeding experiments near Vernal and Moab, UT, conducting experimental treatments using the GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) framework, and continuing newer genetics projects to investigate the impact of productions techniques on plant materials and restoration treatments on native plant communities. These activities were supported by two biological science technicians. The effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were less visible in FY22, allowing SBSC to catch up on backlogged laboratory work. The overall progress of SBSC’s research remains on track with respect to the 5-year plan. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY22, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expertise and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn.

Colorado Plateau↗

Book review: Environmental flows: A definitive guide

It is no secret that rivers have become one of our most important and imperiled resources around the globe. Guidance on how to manage rivers is urgently needed. Thankfully, a new book written by Dr. Angela Arthington: “Environmental Flows: Saving Rivers in the Third Millennium” takes a detailed look at rivers and how we can understand, manage, and restore them. This book is a very broad and comprehensive overview, organized into a series of 22 relatively concise chapters, beginning with an overview of the value of rivers and their current state of imperilment. This chapter sets the stage for understanding the range and magnitude of the challenges we face in saving rivers. For the purposes of this review, I partitioned my discussion of the book into several sections comprising a series of chapters that I felt addressed major themes related to environmental flows. Review info: Environmental flows: Saving rivers in the third millennium. By Arthington, Angela H ., 2012. ISBN 978- 0520953451, 424 pp.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science , decision theory , decision analysis , structured decision-making , and decision-support tools . Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.

Conservation Biology↗

Evaluating ecosystem protection and fragmentation of the world's major mountain regions

Conserving mountains is important for protecting biodiversity because they have high beta diversity and endemicity, facilitate species movement, and provide numerous ecosystem benefits for people. Mountains are often thought to have lower levels of human modification and contain more protected area than surrounding lowlands. To examine this, we compared biogeographic attributes of the largest, contiguous, mountainous region on each continent. In each region, we generated detailed ecosystems based on Köppen−Geiger climate regions, ecoregions, and detailed landforms. We quantified anthropogenic fragmentation of these ecosystems based on human modification classes of large wild areas, shared lands, and cities and farms. Human modification for half the mountainous regions approached the global average, and fragmentation reduced the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems up to 40%. Only one-third of the major mountainous regions currently meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target of 30% coverage for all protected areas; furthermore, the vast majority of ecosystem types present in mountains were underrepresented in protected areas. By measuring ecological integrity and human-caused fragmentation with a detailed representation of mountain ecosystems, our approach facilitates tracking progress toward achieving conservation goals and better informs mountain conservation.

Conservation Biology↗

Inter-species variation in yolk steroid levels and a cowbird-host comparison

We examined variability in yolk hormone levels among songbird species and the role of yolk steroids as a mechanism for enhanced exploitation of hosts by the parasitic Brown-headed Cowbird Molothrus ater. Within-clutch variation in yolk steroids has been found in several avian species in single species studies, but few comparisons have been made among species. We found a large range of differences in yolk testosterone among the seven passerine species examined, with significant differences between those at the high end (Song Sparrow Melospiza melodia , Red-winged Blackbird Agelaius phoeniceus, and House Sparrow, Passer domesticus ) and those at the low end (Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe, and House Finch Carpodacus mexicanus ). We also found that the testosterone level in cowbird eggs was intermediate in relation to host species levels and was significantly lower than that in three common cowbird hosts (Song Sparrow, Red-winged Blackbird, and House Sparrow), but not significantly different from three others. Geographical comparisons of yolk testosterone levels in all cowbird subspecies and populations from several regions showed no significant differences, though a trend that deserves further exploration was the pattern of lowest level in the ancestral population of cowbirds in the central prairies and of highest level in the northwestern population where range invasion occurred approximately 40 years ago. The levels of 17 betaestradiol were similar in the seven songbird species examined, which is consistent with current hypotheses that this hormone plays a role in embryonic sexual differentiation. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the large differences observed among species in absolute level of yolk testosterone are the relevant focal point or whether target tissue sensitivity differences mediate the effects of this yolk steroid, particularly between parasitic and non-parasitic species.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

California State Waters map series — Offshore of Pigeon Point, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Pigeon Point map area is located in central California, on the Pacific Coast about 50 km south of San Francisco and 25 km northwest of Santa Cruz. The onshore part of the map area is sparsely populated. The nearest significant onshore cultural center is Pescadero, an unincorporated community with a population of well under 1,000. The hilly coastal area is virtually undeveloped, used primarily for agricultural or as grazing land for sheep and cattle. Agriculture is limited to the coastal uplifted Pleistocene marine terraces and upper Pleistocene alluvial fan deposits, which lie between the shoreline and the northwest-trending Santa Cruz Mountains. The map area is cut by the San Gregorio Fault Zone, and is located a few kilometers southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone. Coastal uplift and folding in the map area has been attributed to a westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone and also to right-lateral movement along the San Gregorio Fault Zone. The irregular coastal geomorphology of this area, which consists of low, rocky cliffs and sparse, small pocket beaches backed by low, terraced hills, is partly attributable to this ongoing deformation. The shelf in the map area is underlain by variable amounts (0 to 20 m) of upper Quaternary nearshore and shelf sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The southern part of the map is characterized by the presence of uplifted bedrock that has been linked to a local zone of transpression in the San Gregorio Fault Zone. This uplift, coupled with high wave energy, has resulted in little or no sediment cover in this area where exposures of bedrock are present at water depths of as much as 45 m. The thickest deposits of sediment are located in the northern part of the map area. Coastal sediment transport in the map area is characterized by north-to-south littoral transport of sediment that is derived mainly from streams in the Santa Cruz Mountains and also from local coastal erosion. Shoreline-change studies indicate long-term erosion; within the region between San Francisco and Davenport, the highest long- and short-term coastal-erosion rates occur in the map area, just north of Point Año Nuevo. During the last approximately 300 years, as much as 18 million cubic yards (14 million cubic meters) of sand-sized sediment has been eroded from the area between Año Nuevo Island and Point Año Nuevo and transported south. Once widened by this pulse of eroded sediment, beaches south of Point Año Nuevo are now narrowing as the tail end of this mass of sand progresses farther south. The Offshore of Pigeon Point map area lies within the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 335 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of Pigeon Point map area lie within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat. Significant rocky outcrops, which support kelp-forest communities in the nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deeper water, dominate the inner shelf waters. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California↗

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2021 Report)

A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018; Winkler et al. 2018; McCormick et al. 2021). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities to support CPNPP in FY21 followed the FY21 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance 2015), Biden-Harris Administration Executive Order 14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad), and Department of Interior Priority #4 (Working to conserve at least 30% each of our lands and waters by the year 2030). Research activities in FY21 centered on landscape genomics, implementing and monitoring a common garden experiment near Vernal, UT, conducting experimental treatments using the GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) framework, and initiating new genetics projects to investigate the impact of production techniques on plant materials and restoration treatments on native plant communities. These activities were supported by four biological science technicians. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic delayed some aspects of the FY21 workplan, especially for outside laboratory services. However, goals were largely met, and the overall progress of research remains on track with respect to the 5-year plan. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY21, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expertise and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn. Products resulting from FY21 research activities are reported in Appendix 1.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

Biogeographical patterns of tunicates utilizing eelgrass as substrate in the western North Atlantic between 39o and 47o north latitude (New Jersey to Newfoundland)

Colonization of eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.) by tunicates can lead to reduced plant growth and survival. Several of the tunicate species that are found on eelgrass in the northwest Atlantic are highly aggressive colonizers, and range expansions are predicted in association with climate-change induced increases in seawater temperature. In 2017, we surveyed tunicates within eelgrass meadows at 33 sites from New Jersey to Newfoundland. Eight tunicate species were identified colonizing eelgrass, of which four were non-native and one was cryptogenic. The most common species ( Botrylloides violaceus and Botryllus schlosseri ) occurred from New York to Atlantic Canada. Tunicate faunas attached to eelgrass were less diverse north of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Artificial substrates in the vicinity of the eelgrass meadows generally supported more tunicate species than did the eelgrass, but fewer species co-occurred in northern sites than southern sites. The latitudinal gradient in tunicate diversity corresponded to gradients of summertime sea surface temperature and traditional biogeographical zones in the northwest Atlantic, where Cape Cod represents a transition between cold-water and warm-water invertebrate faunas. Tunicate density in the eelgrass meadows was low, ranging generally from 1–25% cover of eelgrass shoots, suggesting that space availability does not currently limit tunicate colonization of eelgrass. This survey, along with our 2013 survey, provide a baseline for identifying future changes in tunicate distribution and abundance in northwest Atlantic eelgrass meadows.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Brunswick, ↗

Evaluating the use of uncrewed surface vessels to enhance Lake Erie acoustic prey-fish surveys

Incorporation of autonomous uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) into large-scale acoustic surveys may enhance spatiotemporal extent and quality of fish density estimates. Lake Erie is currently surveyed by three motorized research vessels (RVs), which annually collect acoustic data and estimate prey-fish abundances. To evaluate the feasibility of incorporating a USV into the existing survey to increase spatial coverage, we compared paired acoustic measurements of target strength (TS), area backscattering coefficient (ABC), and areal fish density from four motorized RVs (three currently and one historically used) and one USV (Saildrone Explorer). Acoustic data were collected along 2-km transects during five sampling events distributed throughout Lake Erie. Despite observing event-specific differences that were likely impacted by sampling conditions, survey-level estimates of areal density between RVs and the USV were comparable (i.e., RV 6% lower than USV). RVs and the USV appear to react differently (speed and stability) to variable environmental conditions (wind and waves), which impacted data quality and must be mitigated in future applications. However, similar to previous comparisons in marine and freshwater environments, incorporating a USV into an acoustic survey could enhance annual fish density estimates by increasing effort, spatial coverage, logistical flexibility, and biological data collection opportunities from RVs.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗

Comparison of methods for estimating density and population trends for low-density Asian bears

Populations of bears in Asia are vulnerable to extinction and effective monitoring is critical to measure and direct conservation efforts. Population abundance (local density) or growth (λ ) are the most sensitive metrics to change. We discuss the value in implementing spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR), the current gold standard for density estimation, and open population SCR (OPSCR) to monitor changes in density over time. We provide guidance for designing studies to provide estimates with sufficient power to detect changes. Because of the wide availability of camera traps and interest in their use, we consider six density estimation methods and their extensions developed for use with camera traps, with specific consideration of assumptions and applications for monitoring Asian bears. We conducted a power analysis to calculate the precision in estimates needed to detect changes in populations with reference to IUCN Red List criteria. We performed a systematic review of empirical studies implementing camera trap abundance estimation methods and considered sample sizes, effort, and model assumptions required to achieve adequate precision for population monitoring. We found SCR and OPSCR, reliant on “marked” individuals, are currently the only methods with enough power to reliably detect even moderate to major (20–80%) declines. Camera trap methods with unmarked individuals rarely achieved precision sufficient to detect even large declines (80–90%), although with some exceptions (e.g., situations with moderate population densities, large number of sampling sites, or inclusion of ancillary local telemetry data. We describe additional estimation options including line transects, direct observations, monitoring age-specific survival and reproductive rates, and hybrid/integrated methodologies that may have potential to work for some Asian bear populations. We conclude monitoring changes in abundance or density is possible for most Asian bear populations but will require collaboration among researchers over broad spatial extents and extensive financial investment to overcome biological and logistical constraints. We strongly encourage practitioners to consider study design and sampling effort required to meet objectives by conducting simulations, power analyses, and assumption checks prior to implementing monitoring efforts, and reporting standardized dispersion measures such as coefficients of variation to allow for assessment of precision. Our guidance is relevant to other low-density and wide-ranging species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Along the nearly 3,200 kilometers (almost 2,000 miles) of the United States–Mexican border, in an area known as the Borderlands, we are witnessing the expression of the challenges of the 21st century. This circular identifies several challenge themes and issues associated with life and the environment in the Borderlands, listed below. The challenges are not one-sided; they do not originate in one country only to become problems for the other. The issues and concerns of each challenge theme flow in both directions across the border, and both nations feel their effects throughout the Borderlands and beyond. The clear message is that our two nations, the United States and Mexico, face the issues in these challenge themes together, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) understands it must work with its counterparts, partners, and customers in both countries. Though the mission of the USGS is not to serve as land manager, law enforcer, or code regulator, its innovation and creativity and the scientific and technical depth of its capabilities can be directly applied to monitoring the conditions of the landscape. The ability of USGS scientists to critically analyze the monitored data in search of signals and trends, whether they lead to negative or positive results, allows us to reach significant conclusions—from providing factual conclusions to decisionmakers, to estimating how much of a natural resource exists in a particular locale, to predicting how a natural hazard phenomenon will unfold, to forecasting on a scale from hours to millennia how ecosystems will behave. None of these challenge themes can be addressed strictly by one or two science disciplines; all require well-integrated, cross-discipline thinking, data collection, and analyses. The multidisciplinary science themes that have become the focus of the USGS mission parallel the major challenges in the border region between Mexico and the United States. Because of this multidisciplinary approach, the USGS possesses a unique set of capabilities that can address these challenges. The USGS can apply geographical, geospatial, biological, hydrological, and geological sciences to these complex issues and thereby provide insight into the area’s natural systems and their relation to human activity. As we come to better understand the complexities of the components of these challenge themes, we discover that each part is inextricably intertwined with other overarching issues. Because of the complex interactions of the human, ecological, political, and economic exigencies associated with this area, the status of the Borderlands has become an ever-present concern for most American citizens and for Mexican and United States Federal, State, and local governments. This circular is intended to provide you - citizen, local decisionmaker, government leader, or private entrepreneur—an overview of what the USGS considers the current and future challenges in the United States–Mexican border region and examples of how the USGS can make a difference in understanding and addressing these issues.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Bayesian statistics for beginners: A step-by-step approach

Bayesian statistics is currently undergoing something of a renaissance. At its heart is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It is an approach that is ideally suited to making initial assessments based on incomplete or imperfect information; as that information is gathered and disseminated, the Bayesian approach corrects or replaces the assumptions and alters its decision-making accordingly to generate a new set of probabilities. As new data/evidence becomes available the probability for a particular hypothesis can therefore be steadily refined and revised. It is very well-suited to the scientific method in general and is widely used across the social, biological, medical, and physical sciences. Key to this book's novel and informal perspective is its unique pedagogy, a question and answer approach that utilizes accessible language, humor, plentiful illustrations, and frequent reference to on-line resources. Bayesian Statistics for Beginners is an introductory textbook suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners seeking to improve their understanding of the Bayesian statistical techniques they routinely use for data analysis in the life and medical sciences, psychology, public health, business, and other fields.

Book↗

Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

Oregon↗

Estimating population persistence for at-risk species using citizen science data

Population persistence probability is valuable for characterizing risk to species and informing listing and conservation decisions but is challenging to estimate through traditional methods for rare, data-limited species. Modeling approaches have used citizen science data to mitigate data limitations of focal species and better estimate parameters such as occupancy and detection, but their use to estimate persistence and inform conservation decisions is limited. We developed an approach to estimate persistence using only occurrence records of the target species and citizen science occurrence data of non-target species to account for search effort and imperfect detection. We applied the approach to a highly cryptic and data-limited species, the southern hognose snake ( Heterodon simus ), as part of its USFWS Species Status Assessment, and estimated current (in 2018) and future persistence under plausible scenarios of varying levels of urbanization, sea level rise, and management. Of 222 known populations, 133 (60%) are likely extirpated currently (persistence probability < 50%), and 165 (74%) populations are likely to be extirpated by 2080 with no additional management. Future management scenarios that included strategies to acquire and improve habitat on currently unprotected lands with existing populations lessened the estimated rate of population declines. These results can directly inform listing decisions and conservation planning for the southern hognose snake by Federal, State, and other partners. Our approach – using occurrence records and auxiliary data from non-target species to estimate population persistence – is applicable across rare and at-risk species for evaluating extinction risk with limited data and prioritizing management actions.

Biological Conservation↗

DIN retention-transport through four hydrologically connected zones in a headwater catchment of the Upper Mississippi River

Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) retention-transport through a headwater catchment was synthesized from studies encompassing four distinct hydrologic zones of the Shingobee River Headwaters near the origin of the Mississippi River. The hydrologic zones included: (1) hillslope ground water (ridge to bankside riparian); (2) alluvial riparian ground water; (3) ground water discharged through subchannel sediments (hyporheic zone); and (4) channel surface water. During subsurface hillslope transport through Zone 1, DIN, primarily nitrate, decreased from ∼3 mg-N/l to <0.1 mg-N/l. Ambient seasonal nitrate:chloride ratios in hillslope flow paths indicated both dilution and biotic processing caused nitrate loss. Biologically available organic carbon controlled biotic nitrate retention during hillslope transport. In the alluvial riparian zone (Zone 2) biologically available organic carbon controlled nitrate depletion although processing of both ambient and amended nitrate was faster during the summer than winter. In the hyporheic zone (Zone 3) and stream surface water (Zone 4) DIN retention was primarily controlled by temperature. Perfusion core studies using hyporheic sediment indicated sufficient organic carbon in bed sediments to retain ground water DIN via coupled nitrification-denitrification. Numerical simulations of seasonal hyporheic sediment nitrification-denitrification rates from perfusion cores adequately predicted surface water ammonium but not nitrate when compared to 5 years of monthly field data (1989-93). Mass balance studies in stream surface water indicated proportionally higher summer than winter N retention. Watershed DIN retention was effective during summer under the current land use of intermittently grazed pasture. However, more intensive land use such as row crop agriculture would decrease nitrate retention efficiency and increase loads to surface water. Understanding DIN retention capacity throughout the system, including special channel features such as sloughs, wetlands and floodplains that provide surface water-ground water connectivity, will be required to develop effective nitrate management strategies.

Minnesota↗

Evaluation of the biological and hydraulic performance of the portable floating fish collector at Cougar Reservoir and Dam, Oregon, September 2015–January 2016

The biological and hydraulic performance of a portable floating fish collector (PFFC) located in the cul-de-sac of Cougar Dam and Reservoir, Oregon, was evaluated during 2015–16. The PFFC, first commissioned in May 2014, was modified during winter 2014–15 to address several deficiencies identified during operation and testing in 2014. These modifications included raising the water inflow structures to reduce the depth and volume of inflow to improve the internal hydraulic profiles, and moving the anchors so the PFFC could be positioned closer to the existing reservoir outlet, a water temperature control tower. The PFFC was positioned about 18 meters (m) upstream of the intake of the water temperature control tower and faced into the prevailing water current. Like several floating surface collectors operating in the Pacific Northwest at the time, the PFFC used pumps to draw water and fish over an inclined plane, past dewatering screens, and into a collection area. The portable and experimental nature of the PFFC required a smaller size, shallower entrance (about 2.5-m deep), and smaller inflow rate (72 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s] inflow during the Low treatment, 122 ft 3 /s during the High treatment) than other collectors in the region. The collection of the target species, juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) , during 2015–16 was an order of magnitude larger than in 2014. Subyearling-age Chinook salmon comprised most of the catch (2,616 subyearling compared to 258 yearling) and was greatest during the spring during the High inflow treatment. Bycatch consisted predominantly of cyprinids and centrarchids. Trap mortality (fish found dead in the trap) of juvenile Chinook salmon, at 9.2 percent of the subyearlings and 5.0 percent of yearlings, was about 30 percent of the level in 2014. Fish mortality from handling the live catch was about 1 percent. Data from fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and those with acoustic+PIT tags released near the head of the reservoir indicated the catch rates of the PFFC were low. Eight of the 1,497 PIT-tagged fish and 5 of the 534 acoustic+PIT-tagged fish were collected by the PFFC. Fish collection efficiencies—the number collected by the PFFC out of the number detected at the head of the forebay (FCE FB ) or in the cul-de-sac (FCE CDS ) —were 0.002 and 0.003 during the Low treatment and 0.008 and 0.009 during the High treatment. The low FCEs were attributed to the following factors: Few acoustic+PIT-tagged fish were detected within 10 m of the PFFC entrance, Most fish were detected between the stern of the PFFC and the entrance to the tower, Fish depths commonly were several times greater than the PFFC entrance depth, and Surface water temperatures were warm. The data suggest that the shallow entrance and low inflow rate reduced fish guidance near the PFFC entrance and the hydraulic characteristics resulting from the outflow plumes (and perhaps water entering the temperature control tower) attracted fish to that area. Catch of juvenile Chinook salmon likely would increase if the collector entrance were deepened, the inflow rate were increased, and measures were taken to constrain fish presence to the area upstream of the trap entrance.

Oregon↗

State and regional water-quality characteristics and trophic conditions of Michigan's inland lakes, 2001-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality are jointly monitoring selected water-quality constituents of inland lakes through 2015 as part of Michigan’s Lake Water Quality Assessment program. During 2001–2005, 433 lake basins from 364 inland lakes were monitored for baseline water-quality conditions and trophic status. This report summarizes the water-quality characteristics and trophic conditions of those monitored lake basins throughout the State. Regional variation of water quality in lake basins was examined by grouping on the basis of the five Omernik level III ecoregions within Michigan. Concentrations of most constituents measured were significantly different between ecoregions. Less regional variation of phosphorus concentrations was noted between Northern Lakes and Forests (50) and North Central Hardwoods (51) ecoregions during summer possibly because water samples were collected when lake productivity was high; hence the utilization of the limited amount of phosphorus by algae and macrophytes may have resulted in the more uniform concentrations between these two ecoregions. Concentrations of common ions (calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, chloride, and sulfate) measured in the spring typically were higher in the Michigan southern Lower Peninsula in the Eastern Corn Belt Plains (55), Southern Michigan/Northern Indiana Drift Plains (56), and Huron/Erie Lake Plains (57) ecoregions. Most ions whose concentrations were less than the minimum reporting levels or were nondetectable were from lakes in the Michigan northern Lower Peninsula and the Upper Peninsula in the Northern Lakes and Forests (50) and North Central Hardwoods (51) ecoregions. Chlorophyll a concentrations followed a similar distribution pattern. Measured properties such as pH and specific conductance (indicative of dissolved solids) also showed a regional relation. The lakes with the lowest pH and specific conductance were generally in the western Upper Peninsula (Northern Lakes and Forests (50) ecoregion). The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality classifies Michigan lakes on the basis of their primary biological productivity or trophic characteristics using the Carlson Trophic State Index. Trophic evaluations based on data collected from 2001 through 2005 indicate 17 percent of the lakes are oligotrophic, 53 percent are mesotrophic, 22 percent are eutrophic, 4 percent are hypereutrophic, and less than 5 percent are classified into transition classes between each major class. Although the distribution of lakes throughout Michigan or between Omernik level III ecoregions is not uniform, about 85 percent of the lakes classified as oligotrophic are in the Northern Lakes and Forests (50) or North Central Hardwoods (51) ecoregions. Nearly 28 percent of all the lakes in each of these two ecoregions were classified as oligotrophic. Historical trophic-state classes were compared to the current (2001 through 2005) trophic-state classes. Approximately 72 percent of lakes remained in the same trophic-state class, 11 percent moved up a partial or full class (indicating a decrease in water clarity) and 18 percent moved down a partial or full class (indicating an increase in water clarity).

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