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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Response of Florida shelf ecosystems to climate change: from macro to micro scales

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research in St. Petersburg, Fla., is focusing attention on marine environments of the Florida shelf at three levels, from regional to estuarine to the individual organism. The USGS is partnering on this project with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of South Florida (USF) in marine studies. The specific goals of these combined efforts are an improved understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on regional carbonate processes, changes in individual estuaries, and organism-level response. This understanding will assist in developing appropriate Federal, State, and local management responses to climate change in coastal areas.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2024

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672 ), Anarde et al. (2024b), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200 ) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process-and-response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system-scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system-wide impacts.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2016

Loss of genetic diversity and increased subdivision in an endemic Alpine Stonefly threatened by climate change

Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker) of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing “historic” (>10 yr old) and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker) and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms.

Montana↗

USGS2020

Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States

Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer owing to rising temperatures by the end of the 21st century compared with historical conditions. Management implications of such changes for six representative land management units include seasonal shifts in burning opportunities from summer to cool-season months, but with considerable regional variation. We contend that the practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria (as defined today) will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, kentucky, Lou↗

USGS2024

Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts

Wind-waves have an important role in Earth system dynamics through air–sea interactions and are key drivers of coastal and offshore hydro-morphodynamics that affect communities, ecosystems, infrastructure and operations. In this Review, we outline historical and projected changes in the wind-wave climate over the world’s oceans, and their impacts. Historical trend analysis is challenging owing to the presence of temporal inhomogeneities from increased numbers and types of assimilated data. Nevertheless, there is general agreement over a consistent historical increase in mean wave height of 1–3 cm yr −1 in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, with extremes increasing by >10 cm yr −1 for the latter. By 2100, mean wave height is projected to rise by 5–10% in the Southern Ocean and eastern tropical South Pacific, and by >100% in the Arctic Ocean. By contrast, reductions in mean wave height up to 10% are expected in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with regional variability and uncertainty for changes in extremes. Differences between 1.5 °C and warmer worlds reveal the potential benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming. Resolving global-scale climate change impacts on coastal processes and atmospheric–ocean–wave interactions requires a step-up in observational and modeling capabilities, including enhanced spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of observations, more homogeneous data products, multidisciplinary model improvement, and better sampling of uncertainty with larger ensembles.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

USGS2010

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2020

The impacts of a changing climate to DOD coastal facilities in the tropical Pacific Ocean

The USGS, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Deltares, and the University of Hawaii (UH) recently completed a study investigating the impact of a changing climate and sea-level rise on Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, which is part of the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site (RTS). The isolated location of RTS makes it uniquely suited to support realistic testing of missiles and intercept scenarios with minimal safety and environmental concerns. In addition, this unique location supports research and development for space and missile programs and space reconnaissance and surveillance operations. RTS has been a critical component of the Pacific Range, with the world’s most advanced telemetry, optics, and radar instrumentation used to collect metric and signature data on missiles.

Kwajalein Atoll↗

USGS2010

Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change

Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted.

California↗

USGS2013

Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

“Space-for-time” substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption—that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity—rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as “time-for-time” predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2025

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Eastern North American temperate freshwater marsh, wet meadow and shrubland

The Eastern North American Temperate Freshwater Marsh, Wet Meadow and Shrubland is a hydrologically dynamic ecosystem highly sensitive to shifts in water availability. Across the Midwest, climate change is expected to intensify two primary stressors, flooding and drought, resulting in increased hydrologic variability that may threaten the persistence of these wetlands. Increased spring precipitation and more frequent extreme rainfall events are projected to cause deeper, longer-lasting inundation, while rising temperatures, reduced snowpack, and heightened evaporative demand are likely to increase the frequency and severity of droughts. Changes in hydrology may significantly alter both habitat structure and community composition. Physical disturbance from scouring and erosion may intensify, while nutrient and sediment loading from surrounding land uses may lead to eutrophication and terrestrialization. Vegetation zonation is likely to become destabilized under more extreme hydrological conditions, with flood-tolerant or droughtadapted species replacing those with narrower hydrologic tolerances. The two habitat groups within this broader ecosystem show differing vulnerabilities. The Eastern North American Freshwater Marsh, including both Great Lakes coastal and inland systems, is considered among the most hydrologically dynamic and disturbance-prone wetland types. Vegetation in these marshes is typically stratified along water depth gradients, forming distinct zones that depend on variable hydrology to persist, but deep or prolonged inundation can disrupt this zonation and reduce plant diversity. In contrast, the Midwest Wet Prairie, Wet Meadow and Shrub Swamp, generally lacks persistent surface water and relies on precipitation and snowmelt to maintain seasonal saturation. As a result, this habitat group is especially prone to drying and potentially susceptible to woody encroachment and shifts toward drier-adapted plant communities. Across both habitat groups, invasive species are expected to gain a competitive edge under future climate conditions. Invasive wetland plants often exhibit high plasticity and can tolerate a wide range of disturbances and hydrologic conditions, allowing them to expand rapidly during both flood and drought periods. Interacting pressures underscore the growing vulnerability of the Eastern North American Temperate Freshwater Marsh, Wet Meadow and Shrubland under future climate scenarios.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS1999

200,000 years of climate change recorded in eolian sediments of the High Plains of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska

Loess and eolian sand cover vast areas of the western Great Plains of Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado (Fig. 1). In recent studies of Quaternary climate change, there has been a renewed interest in loess and eolian sand. Much of the attention now given to loess stems from new studies of long loess sequences that contain detailed records of Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles, thought to be a terrestrial equivalent to the foraminiferal oxygen isotope record in deep-sea sediments (Fig. 2). Loess is also a direct record of atmospheric circulation, and identification of loess paleowinds in the geologic record can test atmospheric general circulation models. Until recently, eolian sand on the Great Plains had received little attention from Quaternary geologists. The past decade has seen a proliferation of studies of Great Plains dune sands, and many studies, summarized below, indicate that landscapes characterized by eolian sand have had dynamic histories. On this field trip, we will visit some key eolian sand and loess localities in eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska (Fig. 1). Stratigraphic studies at some of these localities have been conducted for more than 50 years, but others have been systematically studied only in the past few years. Many of the data which appear in this guidebook have been derived from previous studies (Swinehart and Diffendal, 1990; Madole, 1994; Loope and others, 1995; Maat and Johnson, 1996; Muhs and others, 1996, 1997a, 1999; Mason and others, 1997; Aleinikoff and others, 1999), but some are presented here for the first time.

Colorado;Nebraska↗

USGS2022

Climate change and fishes in estuaries

This chapter provides an overview of the main drivers of change in estuarine systems, their expected causes and impacts on estuarine fish and fisheries. An analysis of global, regional and local patterns of estuarine fish and how climate-induced change may impact estuarine systems and their fish communities is provided. We also examine the main environmental, climatic and biological stressors likely to impact estuarine fish and associated fisheries. A set of case studies is used to illustrate the differences in potential impacts associated with various global regions and types of estuaries. An understanding of climate change in estuaries will support estuarine ecosystem resilience, inform management and facilitate adaptation.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21 st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2010

Effects of climate change on saltwater intrusion at Hilton Head Island, SC. U.S.A.

Sea‐level rise and changes in precipitation patterns may contribute to the occurrence and affect the rate of saltwater contamination in the Hilton Head Island, South Carolina area. To address the effects of climate change on saltwater intrusion, a threedimensional, finite‐element, variable‐density, solute‐transport model was developed to simulate different rates of sea‐level rise and variation in onshore freshwater recharge. Model simulation showed that the greatest effect on the existing saltwater plume occurred from reducing recharge, suggesting recharge may be a more important consideration in saltwater intrusion management than estimated rates of sea‐level rise. Saltwater intrusion management would benefit from improved constraints on recharge rates by using model‐independent, local precipitation and evapotranspiration data, and improving estimates of confining unit hydraulic properties.

South Carolina↗

USGS2024

Historical insights, current challenges: Tracking marine biodiversity in an urban harbor ecosystem in the face of climate change

The Boston Harbor Islands is the only coastal drumlin archipelago in the USA, featuring a distinctive and uncommon geological intertidal habitat known as mixed coarse substrate, which supports a range of coastal species and ecological processes. Recently designated as one of America’s 11 most endangered historic places due to climate change impacts, coastal adaptation and restoration efforts are crucial to their preservation. Such efforts can benefit from historic and current knowledge of endemic and emergent biodiversity. To investigate broad trends in coastal biodiversity, we compiled an inventory of marine coastal macroalgae, macroinvertebrates, fish, mammals, and shorebirds observed in the harbor since 1861. Records span 159 years, consisting of 451 unique taxa from 19 phyla. Analysis of average taxonomic distinctness (AvTD) revealed increases in diversity towards the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, likely associated with improved water quality (dissolved oxygen; AvTD > 85, p = 0.01) due to harbor restoration in the 1980s. Macroinvertebrates comprised 50% of the records, making this the most diverse taxonomic group in the time series. A significant increase of non-indigenous species, primarily macroinvertebrates and macroalgae, was observed over the last 20 years near human infrastructure and across multiple islands, a consequence of global change and characteristic of most urban harbors. The mixed coarse intertidal habitat, which makes up > 70% of Boston Harbor’s inner islands and supports high macroinvertebrate and macroalgal diversity (47% of species records), is not routinely monitored; our findings serve as a foundational resource for climate adaptation projects and decision-making.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Assessing climate change impacts on Pacific salmon using bioenergetics and spatiotemporal explicit river temperature predictions under varying riparian conditions

Pacific salmon and trout populations are affected by timber harvest, the removal and alteration of riparian vegetation, and the resulting physical changes to water quality, temperature, and associated delivery of high-quality terrestrial prey. Juvenile salmon and trout growth, a key predictor of survival, is poorly understood in the context of current and future (climate-change mediated) conditions, with resource managers needing information on how land use will impact future river conditions for these commercially and culturally important species. We used the Heat Source water temperature modeling framework to develop a spatiotemporal model to assess how riparian canopy and vegetation preservation and addition could influence river temperatures under future climate predictions in a coastal river fed by a moraine-dammed lake: the Quinault River in Washington State. The model predicted higher water temperatures under future carbon emission projections, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with varying magnitude based on different riparian vegetation scenarios. We used the daily average temperature output from these scenarios to predict potential juvenile fish growth using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. A combination of riparian vegetation removal and continued high carbon emissions resulted in a predicted seven-day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) increase of 1.7°C in the lower river by 2080; increases in riparian shading mitigate this 7DADM increase to only 0.9°C. Under the current thermal regime, bioenergetics modeling predicts juvenile fish lose weight in the lower river; this loss of potential growth worsens by an average of 20–83% in the lower river by 2080, increasing with the loss of riparian shading. This study assess the impact of riparian vegetation management on future thermal habitat for Pacific salmon and trout under warming climates and provide a useful spatially explicit modeling framework that managers can use to make decisions regarding riparian vegetation management and its mechanistic impact to water temperature and rearing juvenile fish.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2017

Climatic-change implications from long-term (1823-1994) ice records for the Laurentian Great Lakes

Long-term ice records (1823-1994) from six sites in different parts of the Laurentian Great Lakes region were used to show the type and general timing of climatic changes throughout the region. The general timing of both freeze-up and ice loss varies and is driven by local air temperatures, adjacent water bodies and mixing, and site morphometry. Grand Traverse Bay and Buffalo Harbor represent deeper-water environments affected by mixing of off-shore waters; Chequamegon Bay, Memnominee, Lake Mendota, and Toronto Harbor represent relatively shallow-water, protected environments. Freeze-up dates gradually become later and ice-loss dates gradually earlier from the start of records to the 1890s in both environments, marking the end of the 'Little Ice Age.' After this, freeze-up dates remained relatively constant suggesting little change in early-winter air temperatures during the 20th century. Ice-loss dates at Grand Traverse Bay and Buffalo Harbor (but not at the other sites) became earlier during the 1940s and 1970s and became later during the 1960s. The global warming of the 1980s was marked by a trend toward earlier ice-loss dates in both environments.

Great Lakes↗