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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique

The mutual climatic range (MCR) technique is perhaps the most widely used method for estimating past climatic parameters from fossil assemblages, largely because it can be conducted on a simple list of the taxa present in an assemblage. When applied to plant macrofossil data, this unweighted approach (MCR un ) will frequently identify a large range for a given climatic parameter where the species in an assemblage can theoretically live together. To narrow this range, we devised a new weighted approach (MCR wt ) that employs information from the modern relations between climatic parameters and plant distributions to lessen the influence of the "tails" of the distributions of the climatic data associated with the taxa in an assemblage. To assess the performance of the MCR approaches, we applied them to a set of modern climatic data and plant distributions on a 25-km grid for North America, and compared observed and estimated climatic values for each grid point. In general, MCR wt was superior to MCR un in providing smaller anomalies, less bias, and better correlations between observed and estimated values. However, by the same measures, the results of Modern Analog Technique (MAT) approaches were superior to MCR wt . Although this might be reason to favor MAT approaches, they are based on assumptions that may not be valid for paleoclimatic reconstructions, including that: 1) the absence of a taxon from a fossil sample is meaningful, 2) plant associations were largely unaffected by past changes in either levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide or in the seasonal distributions of solar radiation, and 3) plant associations of the past are adequately represented on the modern landscape. To illustrate the application of these MCR and MAT approaches to paleoclimatic reconstructions, we applied them to a Pleistocene paleobotanical assemblage from the western United States. From our examinations of the estimates of modern and past climates from vegetation assemblages, we conclude that the MCR un technique provides reliable and unbiased estimates of the ranges of possible climatic conditions that can reasonably be associated with these assemblages. The application of MCR wt and MAT approaches can further constrain these estimates and may provide a systematic way to assess uncertainty. The data sets required for MCR analyses in North America are provided in a parallel publication.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2000

Occurrence and load of selected herbicides and metabolites in the lower Mississippi River

Analyses of water samples collected from the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, Louisiana, during 1991–1997 indicate that hundreds of metric tons of herbicides and herbicide metabolites are being discharged annually to the Gulf of Mexico. Atrazine, metolachlor, and the ethane-sulfonic acid metabolite of alachlor (alachlor ESA) were the most frequently detected herbicides and, in general, were present in the largest concentrations. Almost 80% of the annual herbicide load to the Gulf of Mexico occurred during the growing season from May to August. The concentrations and loads of alachlor in the Mississippi River decreased dramatically after 1993 in response to decreased use in the basin. In contrast, the concentrations and loads of acetochlor increased after 1994, reflecting its role as a replacement for alachlor. The peak annual herbicide load occurred in 1993, when approximately 640 metric tons (t) of atrazine, 320 t of cyanazine, 215 t of metolachlor, 53 t of simazine, and 50 t of alachlor were discharged to the Gulf of Mexico. The annual loads of atrazine and cyanazine were generally 1–2% of the amount annually applied in the Mississippi River drainage basin; the annual loads of acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor were generally less than 1%. Despite a reduction in atrazine use, historical data do not indicate a long-term downward trend in the atrazine load to the Gulf of Mexico. Although a relation ( r 2 =0.62) exists between the atrazine load and stream discharge during May to August, variations in herbicide use and rainfall patterns within subbasins can have a large effect on herbicide loads in the Mississippi River Basin and probably explain a large part of the annual variation in atrazine load to the Gulf of Mexico.

Louisana, Mississippi↗

USGS2002

Reactivity and mobility of new and old mercury deposition in a boreal forest ecosystem during the first year of the METAALICUS study

The METAALICUS (Mercury Experiment To Assess Atmospheric Loading In Canada and the US) project is a whole ecosystem experiment designed to study the activity, mobility, and availability of atmospherically deposited mercury. To investigate the dynamics of mercury newly deposited onto a terrestrial ecosystem, an enriched stable isotope of mercury ( 202 Hg) was sprayed onto a Boreal forest subcatchment in an experiment that allowed us, for the first time, to monitor the fate of “new” mercury in deposition and to distinguish it from native mercury historically stored in the ecosystem. Newly deposited mercury was more reactive than the native mercury with respect to volatilization and methylation pathways. Mobility through runoff was very low and strongly decreased with time because of a rapid equilibration with the large native pool of “bound” mercury. Over one season, only ∼8% of the added 202 Hg volatilized to the atmosphere and less than 1% appeared in runoff. Within a few months, approximately 66% of the applied 202 Hg remained associated with above ground vegetation, with the rest being incorporated into soils. The fraction of 202 Hg bound to vegetation was much higher than seen for native Hg (<5% vegetation), suggesting that atmospherically derived mercury enters the soil pool with a time delay, after plants senesce and decompose. The initial mobility of mercury received through small rain events or dry deposition decreased markedly in a relatively short time period, suggesting that mercury levels in terrestrial runoff may respond slowly to changes in mercury deposition rates.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2019

The dream and the reality: Meeting decision-making time frames while incorporating ecosystem and economic models into management strategy evaluation

Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) in the Northwest Atlantic have been managed with interim harvest control rules (HCRs). A stakeholder-driven management strategy evaluation (MSE) was conducted that incorporated a broad range of objectives. The MSE process was completed within 1 year. Constant catch, conditional constant catch, and a biomass-based (BB) HCR with a 15% restriction on the interannual change in the quota could achieve more stable yields than BB HCRs without such restrictions, but could not attain as high of yields and resulted in more negative outcomes for terns ( Sterna hirundo ; a predator of herring). A similar range of performance could be achieved by applying a BB HCR annually every 3 years or every 5 years. Predators (i.e., dogfish ( Squalus acanthias ), bluefin tuna ( Thunnus thynnus ), and terns) were generally insensitive to the range of HCRs. While median net revenues were sensitive to some HCRs, time series analysis suggests that most HCRs produced a stable equilibrium of net revenue. To meet management needs, some aspects of the simulations were less than might be considered scientifically ideal, but using “models of intermediate complexity” were informative for managers and formed a foundation for future improvements.

Northwest Atlantic↗

USGS1996

An empirical method to estimate shear wave velocity of soils in the New Madrid seismic zone

In this study, a set of charts are developed to estimate shear wave velocity of soils in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ), using the standard penetration test (SPT) N values and soil depths. Laboratory dynamic test results of soil samples collected from the NMSZ showed that the shear wave velocity of soils is related to the void ratio and the effective confining pressure applied to the soils. The void ratio of soils can be estimated from the SPT N values and the effective confining pressure depends on the depth of soils. Therefore, the shear wave velocity of soils can be estimated from the SPT N value and the soil depth. To make the methodology practical, two corrections should be made. One is that field SPT N values of soils must be adjusted to an unified SPT N??? value to account the effects of overburden pressure and equipment. The second is that the effect of water table to effective overburden pressure of soils must be considered. To verify the methodology, shear wave velocities of five sites in the NMSZ are estimated and compared with those obtained from field measurements. The comparison shows that our approach and the field tests are consistent with an error of less than of 15%. Thus, the method developed in this study is useful for dynamic study and practical designs in the NMSZ region. Copyright ?? 1996 Elsevier Science Limited.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗

USGS2000

Magnetic susceptibility for use in delineating hydric soils

Field indicators are used to identify hydric soil boundaries and to delineate wetlands. The most common field indicators may not be seen in some soils with thick, dark, mollic epipedons, and do not form in Fe-poor soils. This study evaluated magnetic susceptibility (MS) meter as a field tool to determine hydric soil boundaries. Five Mollisol-dominated sites formed in glacial deposits in Illinois were evaluated along with one Ultisol-dominated site formed in Coastal Plain sediments of North Carolina. Measurements of volumetric MS were made along transects at each site that extended from wetland into upland areas. One created wetland was evaluated. Field indicators were used to identify the hydric soils. Results showed that volumetric MS values were significantly ( P < 0.01) lower in hydric soils than in nonhydric soils formed in glacial deposits. Volumetric MS values also decreased slightly with depth. In a created marsh, significant differences in MS were found between hydric and nonhydric soils at 15 to 30 cm but not at shallower depths where topsoil from a wetland had been artificially applied. No significant ( P > 0.15) differences in MS were found for Coastal Plain hydric and nonhydric soils where MS values were low (<10 × 10 −5 SI). Critical MS values that separated hydric and nonhydric soils varied between 20 × 10 −5 and 30 × 10 −5 SI for the loessal soils evaluated in Illinois. Such critical values will have to be determined on site using field indicators until specific values can be defined for hydric soils within a given parent material. With a critical MS value in hand, a wetland delineator can make MS measurements along transects perpendicular to the envisioned hydric soil boundary to quickly and quantitatively identify it.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

USGS1999

Geologic map of the Galaxias quadrangle (MTM 35217) of Mars

The Galaxias region (MTM 35217) is one of a series of 1:500,000-scale science study areas on Mars sponsored by NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program. Situated near the northern limit of lava flows associated with Elysium Mons, this region includes a mixture of volcanic and nonvolcanic terrains. The region is also of interest for the fluvial systems that originate along the distal margins of the Elysium lava flows. Resolution of Viking Orbiter images used to prepare the base map ranges from 40 to 160 m/pixel. High-resolution frames (40 to 80 m/pixel) are found in the southeastern part of the map area and along the north edge of the quadrangle, but over half the quadrangle is included in medium-resolution frames (150 m/pixel). Two 8 m/pixel, very high resolution scenes are available (see fig. 1). Interpretation is complicated by variable resolution and sun angles that vary from east to west illumination on different images. Mapping methods and principles are adapted from those developed for lunar photogeologic mapping by Shoemaker and Hackman (1962), refined by Wilhelms (1972), and successfully applied by many workers to a variety of planetary surfaces. Mapping units are distinguished by topography and texture and are ranked by relative age on the basis of superposition and transection relations. Material units are assigned to time-stratigraphic systems defined by Scott and Carr (1978) and Tanaka (1986). This area is included within earlier maps that used Mariner 9 images at 1:5,000,000 scale (Elston, 1979) and globally at 1:25,000,000 scale (Scott and Carr, 1978). Regional maps based on the much higher resolutions of Viking Orbiter allowed more detailed discrimination of materials by Greeley and Guest (1987) at 1:15,000,000 scale and Tanaka and others (1992) at 1:5,000,000 scale. Some map units on this 1:500,000-scale map correspond to, or are partially equivalent to, units on the larger scale maps of Greeley and Guest (1987) and Tanaka and others (1992). Established terminology is used where feasible, but the scale of this map requires that some new units be introduced and that some previous terminology be redefined. Photogeologic methods are limited; therefore, more than one geologic explanation is given for some material units that do not readily lend themselves to an unequivocal interpretation.

IMAP↗

USGS2010

Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: progress and problems

At the beginning of the twentieth century, volcanology began to emerge as a modern science as a result of increased interest in eruptive phenomena following some of the worst volcanic disasters in recorded history: Krakatau (Indonesia) in 1883 and Mont Pelée (Martinique), Soufrière (St. Vincent), and Santa María (Guatemala) in 1902. Volcanology is again experiencing a period of heightened public awareness and scientific growth in the 1980s, the worst period since 1902 in terms of volcanic disasters and crises. A review of hazards mitigation approaches and techniques indicates that significant advances have been made in hazards assessment, volcano monitoring, and eruption forecasting. For example, the remarkable accuracy of the predictions of dome-building events at Mount St. Helens since June 1980 is unprecedented. Yet a predictive capability for more voluminous and explosive eruptions still has not been achieved. Studies of magma-induced seismicity and ground deformation continue to provide the most systematic and reliable data for early detection of precursors to eruptions and shallow intrusions. In addition, some other geophysical monitoring techniques and geochemical methods have been refined and are being more widely applied and tested. Comparison of the four major volcanic disasters of the 1980s (Mount St. Helens, U.S.A. (1980), El Chichón, Mexico (1982); Galunggung, Indonesia (1982); and Nevado del Ruíz, Colombia (1985) illustrates the importance of predisaster geoscience studies, volcanic hazards assessments, volcano monitoring, contingency planning, and effective communications between scientists and authorities. The death toll (>22,000) from the Ruíz catastrophe probably could have been greatly reduced; the reasons for the tragically ineffective implementation of evacuation measures are still unclear and puzzling in view of the fact that sufficient warnings were given. The most pressing problem in the mitigation of volcanic and associated hazards on a global scale is that most of the world's dangerous volcanoes are in densely populated countries that lack the economic and scientific resources or the political will to adequately study and monitor them. This problem afflicts both developed and developing countries, but it is especially acute for the latter. The greatest advances in volcanic hazards mitigation in the near future are most likely to be achieved by wider application of existing technology to poorly understood and studied volcanoes, rather than by refinements or new discoveries in technology alone.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2010

Global positioning system and associated technologies in animal behaviour and ecological research

Biologists can equip animals with global positioning system (GPS) technology to obtain accurate (less than or equal to 30 m) locations that can be combined with sensor data to study animal behaviour and ecology. We provide the background of GPS techniques that have been used to gather data for wildlife studies. We review how GPS has been integrated into functional systems with data storage, data transfer, power supplies, packaging and sensor technologies to collect temperature, activity, proximity and mortality data from terrestrial species and birds. GPS 'rapid fixing' technologies combined with sensors provide location, dive frequency and duration profiles, and underwater acoustic information for the study of marine species. We examine how these rapid fixing technologies may be applied to terrestrial and avian applications. We discuss positional data quality and the capability for high-frequency sampling associated with GPS locations. We present alternatives for storing and retrieving data by using dataloggers (biologging), radio-frequency download systems (e.g. very high frequency, spread spectrum), integration of GPS with other satellite systems (e.g. Argos, Globalstar) and potential new data recovery technologies (e.g. network nodes). GPS is one component among many rapidly evolving technologies. Therefore, we recommend that users and suppliers interact to ensure the availability of appropriate equipment to meet animal research objectives.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2003

Photodegradation of roxarsone in poultry litter leachates

Arsenic compounds have been used extensively in agriculture in the US for applications ranging from cotton herbicides to animal feed supplements. Roxarsone (3-nitro-4-hydroxyphenylarsonic acid), in particular, is used widely in poultry production to control coccidial intestinal parasites. It is excreted unchanged in the manure and introduced into the environment when litter is applied to farmland as fertilizer. Although the toxicity of roxarsone is less than that of inorganic arsenic, roxarsone can degrade, biotically and abiotically, to produce more toxic inorganic forms of arsenic, such as arsenite and arsenate. Experiments were conducted on aqueous litter leachates to test the stability of roxarsone under different conditions. Laboratory experiments have shown that arsenite can be cleaved photolytically from the roxarsone moiety at pH 4-8 and that the degradation rate increases with increasing pH. Furthermore, the rate of photodegradation increases with nitrate and natural organic matter concentration, reactants that are commonly found in poultry-litter-water leachates. Additional photochemical reactions rapidly oxidize the cleaved arsenite to arsenate. The formation of arsenate is not entirely undesirable, because it is less mobile in soil systems and less toxic than arsenite. A possible mechanism for the degradation of roxarsone in poultry litter leachates is proposed. The results suggest that poultry litter storage and field application practices could affect the degradation of roxarsone and subsequent mobilization of inorganic arsenic species. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2026

Evaluating machine learning approaches to identify and predict oil and gas produced water lithium concentrations

Recently, the demand for battery-grade lithium has substantially increased, largely due to electrification of the transportation sector. The search for new lithium sources has turned to produced waters (frequently brines), a large-volume wastewater by-product of oil and gas extraction. Geochemical analysis indicates the presence of varying concentrations of lithium from produced water samples collected across the United States and represented in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Produced Water Geochemical Database, as well as mixtures of Marcellus Shale produced water included in the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s Oil and Gas Well Waste Reports. We first examined whether the geochemical signature of the lithium-bearing produced waters is sufficiently distinct so that machine learning (ML) can be used to correctly classify samples to the formation of origin. The produced water sample data used to assess classification accuracy were from the Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale and Point Pleasant Formation (Utica), and Smackover Formation oil and gas wells. Further, we evaluated the potential for ML to accurately classify Marcellus Shale produced water spatially (i.e., northeast versus southwest Pennsylvania). We then investigated whether ML algorithms applied to a suite of geochemical concentration data (i.e. Ba, Br, Cl, K, Mg, Sr) may be used to predict the lithium concentration of an unknown sample. Finally, we applied an estimated economic lithium grade cutoff of 150 milligrams per liter (mg/l) and assessed the utility of ML to predict whether a produced water sample would fall above or below the grade cutoff based on the suite of geochemical parameters. Four machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT), Extreme Boosting (XGBoost), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) were assessed. This study successfully demonstrates that all four machine learning methods can precisely and accurately estimate lithium concentrations and geologic formation classification. The products of this study contribute to the growing body of knowledge aimed at expanding the lithium resource base within the United States.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi↗

USGS2015

On formally integrating science and policy: walking the walk

The contribution of science to the development and implementation of policy is typically neither direct nor transparent. In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) made a decision that was unprecedented in natural resource management, turning to an unused and unproven decision process to carry out trust responsibilities mandated by an international treaty. The decision process was adopted for the establishment of annual sport hunting regulations for the most economically important duck population in North America, the 6 to 11 million mallards Anas platyrhynchos breeding in the mid-continent region of north-central United States and central Canada. The key idea underlying the adopted decision process was to formally embed within it a scientific process designed to reduce uncertainty (learn) and thus make better decisions in the future. The scientific process entails use of models to develop predictions of competing hypotheses about system response to the selected action at each decision point. These prediction not only are used to select the optimal management action, but also are compared with the subsequent estimates of system state variables, providing evidence for modifying degrees of confidence in, and hence relative influence of, these models at the next decision point. Science and learning in one step are formally and directly incorporated into the next decision, contrasting with the usual ad hoc and indirect use of scientific results in policy development and decision-making. Application of this approach over the last 20 years has led to a substantial reduction in uncertainty, as well as to an increase in transparency and defensibility of annual decisions and a decrease in the contentiousness of the decision process. As resource managers are faced with increased uncertainty associated with various components of global change, this approach provides a roadmap for the future scientific management of natural resources.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2013

Woody vegetation communities of tidal freshwater swamps in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida (US) with comparisons to similar systems in the US and South America

Questions What are the general tree communities found in tidal freshwater swamps along four large coastal rivers in the southeastern United States (US)? How do these communities compare to other tidal freshwater swamps in the US and South America? Locations Tidal floodplains of major rivers along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the southeastern US: Savannah, Altamaha, Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers. Methods An extensive survey of trees and shrubs was conducted to describe the communities from a range of tidal freshwater swamps. River basins studied include micro-tidal (Gulf coast) and meso-tidal (Atlantic coast) regimes, and study areas were located both near and distant to primary channels. A total of 128 plots (100 m2 each) were inventoried, distributed evenly over the Savannah and Altamaha Rivers along the Atlantic coast, and the Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers along the Gulf coast. Multivariate statistics helped discern communities and the significant indicator species in each. Results Four general communities were characterized and named according to the strongest individual indicator species in each: Water Tupelo (Nyssa aquatica) Community, Swamp Tupelo (Nyssa biflora) Community, Dwarf Palmetto (Sabal minor) Community and Cabbage Palm (Sabal palmetto) Community. Conclusions Descriptions of most tidal freshwater swamps in the southeastern US fit within the communities described in this study. Because studies that make inferences between environmental drivers (e.g. salinity, hydroperiod, hurricanes) and specific community types are best applied to the same communities (but perhaps different river systems), this work provides a framework by which tidal freshwater forested wetlands can be accurately compared based on their tree communities. We suggest that, within the broad range of our inventories, the four communities described identify the primary associations that should be tracked within most tidal freshwater swamps of the US. However, we identify some river basins in the US that do not fit this construct. Diversity of major tree communities in tidal freshwater swamps outside the US is generally much lower (with the notable exception of Amazonian hardwood tidal várzea), as are basal area values.

Georgia;Florida;South Carolina↗

USGS2015

Application of a putative alarm cue hastens the arrival of invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) at a trapping location

The sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus is an invasive pest in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin, threatening the persistence of important commercial and recreational fisheries. There is substantial interest in developing effective trapping practices via the application of behavior-modifying semiochemicals (odors). Here we report on the effectiveness of utilizing repellent and attractant odors in a push–pull configuration, commonly employed to tackle invertebrate pests, to improve trapping efficacy at permanent barriers to sea lamprey migration. When a half-stream channel was activated by a naturally derived repellent odor (a putative alarm cue), we found that sea lamprey located a trap entrance significantly faster than when no odor was present as a result of their redistribution within the stream. The presence of a partial sex pheromone, acting as an attractant within the trap, was not found to further decrease the time to when sea lamprey located a trap entrance relative to when the alarm cue alone was applied. Neither the application of alarm cue singly nor alarm cue and partial sex pheromone in combination was found to improve the numbers of sea lamprey captured in the trap versus when no odor was present — likely because nominal capture rate during control trials was unusually high during the study period. Behavioural guidance using these odors has the potential to both improve control of invasive non-native sea lamprey in the Great Lakes as well as improving the efficiency of fish passage devices used in the restoration of threatened lamprey species elsewhere.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

Predicting aquatic habitat connectivity across watershed boundaries: Implications for interbasin spread of nonindigenous aquatic species.

Understanding habitat connectivity is critical for managing nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) spread. Dams and watershed boundaries can be impassable to NAS during typical conditions but may become temporarily passable during flooding. The goal of our project was to develop an approach for identifying locations of aquatic connectivity at a fine spatial scale along watershed boundaries using readily available data. To develop this approach, we focused on the potential for range expansion of invasive fish in the United States via possible cross-boundary habitat connections. First, we developed an index using metrics of elevation, watershed size, and geology at regular points along a watershed boundary to stratify points by likelihood of connectivity during high precipitation (>20 mm of precipitation in a 3-day period). We then used a subset of points across a gradient of connectivity likelihoods to gather Landsat-derived observed surface water data and developed a statistical model to predict surface water presence from landscape characteristics. We applied the model throughout the entire watershed boundary to identify locations of hydrologic connectivity during high-water events. The presence of surface water on watershed boundaries was predicted by the interactions between watershed boundary point elevation relative to the minimum adjacent HUC-12 elevations and watershed boundary point elevation relative to neighboring point elevations (marginal R 2 = 0.94). Our approach can be used to identify potential areas of surface water connectivity between watersheds quickly and easily at a fine spatial scale using readily available, remotely sensed data that can inform conservation and management actions across disciplines.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2009

Selected achievements, science directions, and new opportunities for the WEBB small watershed research program

Over nearly two decades, the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) small watershed research program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented how water and solute fluxes, nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics, and weathering and sediment transport respond to natural and humancaused drivers, including climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. Together with a continued and increasing focus on the effects of climate change, more investigations are needed that examine ecological effects (e.g., evapotranspiration, nutrient uptake) and responses (e.g., species abundances, biodiversity) that are coupled with the physical and chemical processes historically observed in the WEBB program. Greater use of remote sensing, geographic modeling, and habitat/watershed modeling tools is needed, as is closer integration with the USGS-led National Phenology Network. Better understanding of process and system response times is needed. The analysis and observation of land-use and climate change effects over time should be improved by pooling data obtained by the WEBB program during the last two decades with data obtained earlier and (or) concurrently from other research and monitoring studies conducted at or near the five WEBB watershed sites. These data can be supplemented with historical and paleo-environmental information, such as could be obtained from tree rings and lake cores. Because of the relatively pristine nature and small size of its watersheds, the WEBB program could provide process understanding and basic data to better characterize and quantify ecosystem services and to develop and apply indicators of ecosystem health. In collaboration with other Federal and State watershed research programs, the WEBB program has an opportunity to contribute to tracking the short-term dynamics and long-term evolution of ecosystem services and health indicators at a multiplicity of scales across the landscape.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century

Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the climate-change driven evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts at 50-100 year time scales, while taking into account the contributions from catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic manner. In this new model, the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is determined by: (1) computing the variation of total sediment volume exchange between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volume along the inlet-interrupted coast as a spatially and temporally varying quantity. The exchange volume, as computed here, consists of three major components: variation in fluvial sediment supply; basin (or estuarine) infilling due to the sea-level rise-induced increase in accommodation space; and estuarine sediment volume change due to variations in river discharge. To pilot the model, it is here applied to three different catchment-estuary-coastal systems: the Alsea estuary (Oregon, USA), Dyfi estuary (Wales, UK), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Results indicate that all three systems will experience sediment deficits by 2100 (i.e. sediment importing estuaries). However, processes and system characteristics governing the total sediment exchange volume, and thus coastline change, vary markedly among the systems due to differences in geomorphic settings and projected climatic conditions. These results underline the importance of accounting for the different governing processes when assessing the future evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2020

Estimation of nonlinear water-quality trends in high-frequency monitoring data

Recent advances in high-frequency water-quality sensors have enabled direct measurements of physical and chemical attributes in rivers and streams nearly continuously. Water-quality trends can be used to identify important watershed-scale changes driven by natural and anthropogenic influences. Statistical methods to estimate trends using high-frequency data are lacking. To address this gap, an evaluation of the generalized additive model (GAM) approach to test for trends in high-frequency data was conducted. Our proposed framework includes methods for handling serial correlation, trend estimation and slope-change detection, and trend interpretation at arithmetic scale for log-transformed variables. Water-temperature and turbidity data, representing two analytes with different temporal patterns, collected from the James River at Cartersville, Virginia, USA, were chosen for this analysis. Results indicated that the model, including flow, season, time covariates, and interaction between flow and season performed well for both analytes. The same model structure was applied to specific conductance data, collected from a small highly urbanized watershed, with satisfactory model performance. The water temperature GAM results indicated that the significant decreasing-then-increasing patterns after 2012 were mainly driven by air temperature changes. The turbidity trend was not significant over time. The specific conductance results showed a consistently upward trend over the last decade due to ever-increasing urbanization in the small watershed. This study suggests that the GAM method has great potential as a useful tool for trend analysis on high-frequency data, and for informing watershed managers of hydro-climatic and human influences on water quality by detecting crucial signal variation over time.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗