SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Scientific Monthly”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

787 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET). Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells. The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate. Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought. The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

Effects of aquifer storage and recovery activities on water quality in the Little Arkansas River and Equus Beds Aquifer, south-central Kansas, 2011–14

The Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas is aprimary water source for the city of Wichita. The Equus Beds aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project was developed to help the city of Wichita meet increasing current (2016) and future water demands. The Equus Beds ASR project pumps water out of the Little Arkansas River during above-base flow conditions, treats it using drinking-water quality standards as a guideline, and recharges it into the Equus Beds aquifer for later use. Phase II of the Equus Beds ASR project currently (2016) includes a river intake facility and a surface-water treatment facility with a 30 million gallon per day capacity. Water diverted from the Little Arkansas River is delivered to an adjacent presedimentation basin for solids removal. Subsequently, waste from the surface-water treatment facility and the presedimentation basin is returned to the Little Arkansas River through a residuals return line. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, developed and implemented a hydrobiological monitoring program as part of the ASR project to characterize and quantify the effects of aquifer storage and recovery activities on the Little Arkansas River and Equus Beds aquifer water quality. Data were collected from 2 surface-water sites (one upstream and one downstream from the residuals return line), 1 residuals return line site, and 2 groundwater well sites (each having a shallow and deep part): the Little Arkansas River upstream from the ASR facility near Sedgwick, Kansas (upstream surface-water site 375350097262800), about 0.03 mile (mi) upstream from the residuals return line site; the Little Arkansas River near Sedgwick, Kans. (downstream surface-water site 07144100), about 1.68 mi downstream from the residuals return line site; discharge from the Little Arkansas River ASR facility near Sedgwick, Kansas (residuals return line site 375348097262800); 25S 01 W 07BCCC01 SMW–S11 near CW36 (MW–7 shallow groundwater well site 375327097285401); 25S01 W 07BCCC02 DMW–S10 near CW36 (MW–7 deep groundwater well site 375327097285402); 25S 01W 07BCCA01 SMW–S13 near CW36 (MW–8 shallow groundwater well site 375332097284801); and 25S 01W 07BCCA02 DMW–S14 near CW36 (MW–8 deep groundwater well site 375332097284802). The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, assessed the effects of the ASR Phase II facility residuals return line discharges on stream quality of the Little Arkansas River by measuring continuous physicochemical properties and collecting discrete water-quality and sediment samples for about 2 years pre- (January 2011 through April 2013) and post-ASR (May 2013 through December 2014) Phase II facility operation upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility. Additionally, habitat variables were quantified and macroinvertebrate and fish communities were sampled upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility during the study period. To assess the effects of aquifer recharge on Equus Beds groundwater quality, continuous physicochemical properties were measured and discrete water-quality samples were collected before and during the onset of Phase II aquifer recharge in two (shallow and deep) groundwater wells. Little Arkansas River streamflow was about 10 times larger after the facility began operating because of greater rainfall. Residuals return line release volumes were a very minimal proportion (0.06 percent) of downstream streamflow volume during the months the ASR facility was operating. Upstream and downstream continuously measured water temperature and dissolved oxygen median differences were smaller post-ASR than pre-ASR. Turbidity generally was smaller at the downstream site throughout the study period and decreased at both sites after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging despite a median residuals return line turbidity that was about an order of magnitude larger than the median turbidity at the downstream site. Upstream and downstream continuously measured turbidity median differences were larger post-ASR than pre-ASR. Median post-ASR continuously measured nitrite plus nitrate and continuously computed total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations were smaller than pre-ASR likely because of higher streamflows and dilution; whereas, median continuously computed dissolved and total organic carbon concentrations were larger likely because of higher streamflows and runoff conditions. None of the discretely measured water-quality constituents (dissolved and suspended solids, primary ions, suspended sediment, nutrients, carbon, trace elements, viral and bacterial indicators, and pesticides) in surface water were significantly different between the upstream and downstream sites after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging; however, pre-ASR calcium, sodium, hardness, manganese, and arsenate concentrations were significantly larger at the upstream site, which indicates that some water-quality conditions at the upstream and downstream sites were more similar post-ASR. Most of the primary constituents that make up dissolved solids decreased at both sites after the ASR Phase II facility began operation. Discretely collected total suspended solids concentrations were similar between the upstream and downstream sites before the facility began operating but were about 27 percent smaller at the downstream site after the facility began operating, despite the total suspended solids concentrations in the residuals return line being 15 times larger than the downstream site. Overall habitat scores were indicative of suboptimal conditions upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility throughout the study period. Substrate fouling and sediment deposition mean scores indicated marginal conditions at the upstream and downstream sites during the study period, demonstrating that sediment deposition was evident pre- and post-ASR and no substantial changes in these habitat characteristics were noted after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging. Macroinvertebrate community composition (evaluated using functional feeding, behavioral, and tolerance metrics) generally was similar between sites during the study period. Fewer macroinvertebrate metrics were significant between the upstream and downstream sites post-ASR (6) than pre-ASR (14), which suggests that macroinvertebate communities were more similar after the ASR facility began discharging. Upstream-downstream comparisons in macroinvertebrate aquatic-life-support metrics had no significant differences for the post-ASR time period and neither site was fully supporting for any of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment aquatic-life-support metrics (Macroinvertebrate Biotic Index; Kansas Biotic Index with tolerances for nutrients and oxygen-demanding substances; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EPT] richness; and percentage of EPT species). Overall, using macroinvertebrate aquatic life-support criteria from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, upstream and downstream sites were classified as partially supporting before and after the onset of ASR facility operations. Fish community trophic status and tolerance groups generally were similar among sites during the study period. Fish community Little Arkansas River Basin Index of Biotic Integrity scores at the upstream and downstream sites were indicative of fair-to-good conditions before the facility began operating and decreased to fair conditions after the facility began operating. Groundwater physicochemical changes concurrent with the beginning of recharge operations at the Sedgwick basin were more pronounced in shallow groundwater. No constituent concentrations in the pre-recharge period in comparison to the post-recharge period increased to concentrations exceeding drinking water regulations; however, nitrate decreased significantly from a pre-recharge exceedance of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level to a post recharge nonexceedance. Shallow groundwater chemical concentrations or rates of detection increased after artificial recharge began for the ions potassium, chloride, and fluoride; phosphorus and organic carbon species; trace elements barium, manganese, nickel, arsenate, arsenic, and boron; agricultural pesticides atrazine, metolachlor, metribuzin, and simazine; organic disinfection byproducts bromodichloromethane and trichloromethane; and gross beta levels. Additionally, water temperature, and pH were larger after recharge began; and total solids and slime-forming bacteria concentrations and densities were smaller. Total solids, nitrate, and selenium significantly decreased; and potassium, chloride, nickel, arsenic, fluoride, phosphorus and carbon species, and gross beta levels significantly increased in shallow groundwater after artificial recharge. Results of biological activity reaction tests indicated that water quality microbiology was different before and after artificial recharge began; at times, these differences may lead to changes in dominant bacterial populations that, in turn, may lead to formation and expansion in populations that may cause bioplugging and other unwanted effects. Calcite, iron (II) hydroxide, hydroxyapatite, and similar minerals, had shifts in saturation indices that generally were from undersaturation toward equilibrium and, in some cases, toward oversaturation. These shifts toward neutral saturation indices might suggest reduced weathering of the minerals present in the Equus Beds aquifer. Chemical weathering in the shallow parts of the aquifer may be accelerated because of the increased water temperatures and the system is more vulnerable to clogged pores and mineral dissolution as the equilibrium state is affected by recharge and withdrawal. When oversaturation is indicated for iron minerals, plugging of aquifer materials may happen.

Kansas↗

USGS2017

Hydrogeology and simulated groundwater flow and availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer, southwest Oklahoma, 1980–2013

On September 8, 1981, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board established regulatory limits on the maximum annual yield of groundwater (343,042 acre-feet per year) and equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rate (1.0 acre-foot per acre per year) for the North Fork Red River aquifer. The maximum annual yield and EPS were based on a hydrologic investigation that used a numerical groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board is statutorily required (every 20 years) to update the hydrologic investigation on which the maximum annual yield and EPS were based. Because 20 years have elapsed since the final order was issued, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an updated hydrologic investigation and evaluated the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater flow and availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer in Oklahoma. This report describes a hydrologic investigation of the North Fork Red River aquifer that includes an updated summary of the aquifer hydrogeology. As part of this investigation, groundwater flow and availability were simulated by using a numerical groundwater-flow model. The North Fork Red River aquifer in Beckham, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa, and Roger Mills Counties in Oklahoma is composed of about 777 square miles (497,582 acres) of alluvium and terrace deposits along the North Fork Red River and tributaries, including Sweetwater Creek, Elk Creek, Otter Creek, and Elm Fork Red River. The North Fork Red River is the primary source of surface-water inflow to Lake Altus, which overlies the North Fork Red River aquifer. Lake Altus is a U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reservoir with the primary purpose of supplying irrigation water to the Lugert-Altus Irrigation District. A hydrogeologic framework was developed for the North Fork Red River aquifer and included a definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of a numerical groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model of aquifer inflows and outflows was developed for the North Fork Red River aquifer to constrain the construction and calibration of a numerical groundwater-flow model that reasonably represented the groundwater-flow system. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to and outflows from the North Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2013 and included a sub-accounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from Lake Altus. The numerical groundwater-flow model simulated the period 1980–2013 and was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells, monthly base flow at selected streamgages, net streambed seepage as estimated for the conceptual model, and Lake Altus stage. Groundwater-availability scenarios were performed by using the calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that guarantees a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical (10-year) drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The results of the groundwater-availability scenarios could be used by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board to reevaluate the maximum annual yield of groundwater from the North Fork Red River aquifer. EPS scenarios for the North Fork Red River aquifer were run for periods of 20, 40, and 50 years. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were 0.59, 0.52, and 0.52 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 497,582-acre aquifer area, these rates correspond to annual yields of about 294,000, 259,000, and 259,000 acre-feet per year, respectively. Groundwater storage at the end of the 20-year EPS scenario was about 951,000 acre-feet, or about 1,317,000 acre-feet (58 percent) less than the starting EPS scenario storage. This decrease in storage was equivalent to a mean water-level decline of about 22 feet. Most areas of the active alluvium near the North Fork Red River, Elk Creek, and Elm Fork Red River remained partially saturated through the end of the EPS scenario because of streambed seepage. Lake Altus storage was reduced to zero after 6–7 years of EPS pumping in each scenario. Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the North Fork Red River aquifer and base flows in the North Fork Red River upstream from Lake Altus. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by comparing changes in groundwater storage and base flow between four 50-year scenarios using (1) no groundwater pumping, (2) mean pumping rates for the study period (1980–2013), (3) 2013 pumping rates, and (4) increasing demand pumping rates. The increasing demand pumping rates assumed a 20.4-percent increase in pumping over 50 years based on 2010–60 demand projections for southwest Oklahoma. Groundwater storage after 50 years with no pumping was about 2,606,000 acre-feet, or 137,000 acre-feet (5.5 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-level increase of 2.3 feet. Groundwater storage after 50 years with the mean pumping rate for the study period (1980–2013) was about 2,476,000 acre-feet, or about 7,000 acre-feet (0.3 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-level increase of 0.1 foot. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with 2013 pumping rates was about 2,398,000 acre-feet, or about 70,000 acre-feet (2.8 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-level decline of 1.2 feet. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with increasing demand pumping rates was about 2,361,000 acre-feet, or about 107,000 acre-feet (4.3 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-level decline of 1.8 feet. Mean annual base flow simulated at the Carter streamgage (07301500) on North Fork Red River increased by about 4,000 acre-feet (10 percent) after 50 years with no pumping and decreased by about 5,400 acre-feet (13 percent) after 50 years with increasing demand pumping rates. Mean annual base flow simulated at the North Fork Red River inflow to Lake Altus increased by about 7,400 acre-feet (15 percent) after 50 years with no pumping and decreased by about 5,800 acre-feet (12 percent) after 50 years with increasing demand pumping rates. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage and Lake Altus stage and storage. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model (no drought). To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1984–1993). Groundwater storage at the end of the drought period was about 2,271,000 acre-feet, or about 426,000 acre-feet (15.8 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model. This decrease in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 7.1 feet. At the end of the 10-year hypothetical drought period, base flows at the Sweetwater (07301420), Carter (07301500), Headrick (07305000), and Snyder (07307010) streamgages had decreased by about 37, 61, 44, and 45 percent, respectively. The minimum Lake Altus storage simulated during the drought period was 403 acre-feet, which was a decline of 92 percent from the nondrought storage. Reduced base flows in the North Fork Red River were the primary cause of Lake Altus storage declines.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2020

Precipitation, temperature, groundwater-level elevation, streamflow, and potential flood storage trends within the Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity River basins in Texas through 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), analyzed streamflow trends and streamflow-related variables through 2017 in seven important water-supply basins to provide information that can help water managers with the USACE and river authorities make future water management decisions. The primary purpose of this report is to document trends in long-term streamflow data at 114 selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations and 36 simulated reservoir-inflow stations in 7 river basins primarily in Texas: Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity. In this report, trends were considered statistically significant if their p -values were less than or equal to 0.05 ( p -value ≤0.05). Streamflow data selected for temporal trend analyses included annual minimum streamflow, annual peak streamflow, and streamflow volume. Precipitation, air temperature, and groundwater-level-elevation data were analyzed for trends that may help to explain changes observed in the streamflow statistics. Basins were divided into sections along county lines for precipitation analyses. Streamflow volumes were analyzed for associations with potential flood storage. The potential flood storage, defined as the difference between maximum storage and normal storage, was computed for each dam from the National Inventory of Dams database and accumulated over time based on the completion date of the dam. Precipitation and air temperature trends were analyzed for each of the eight climate divisions (High Plains, Trans-Pecos, Low Rolling Hills, Edwards Plateau, North Central Texas, South Central Texas, East Texas, and Upper Coast). Results of precipitation trend analyses indicated moderate upward trends in the Upper Coast and East Texas Climate Divisions analyzed on an annual time step from 1900 through 2017. These two climate divisions are in the eastern and southeastern parts of the State, and they receive more mean annual precipitation (45.88 and 46.09 inches, respectively) than the other climate divisions. The results of air temperature analyses indicated upward trends in annual mean air temperature within all climate divisions, with a mean slope of 0.02 degree Fahrenheit per year, or 1 degree every 50 years. Within the Brazos River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated that precipitation amounts are most likely increasing in the lower and middle sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow and in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume were indicated at 7 of the 15 stations in the upper sections of the basin. The lower sections of the basin had mostly downward trends in annual minimum streamflow, whereas upward trends in annual minimum streamflow were indicated in the upper sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were indicated at many of the stations in the upper sections of the basin. At the same seven stations in the upper sections of the basin where there were downward trends in annual streamflow, there were also downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. The data from the same seven stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 13,006,394 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1900 and 2010 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Brazos River Basin. Within the Colorado River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated no trends in the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow were indicated at 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin, whereas no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the lower section of the basin, one station that was operated as a continuous streamflow-gaging station through 2017 had a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow, and another station (operated through 2007) had an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow. In the upper sections of the basin, data from seven stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from six stations indicated downward trends. Data from 18 stations in the upper sections of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Thirteen of the 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin with data that indicated downward trends in annual streamflow also have data that indicated downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. Data from the same 13 stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 7,193,147 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1891 and 2014 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Colorado River Basin. Within the Big Cypress Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on annual, seasonal, and monthly time steps indicated almost no trends in the basin as defined in this report. However, the annual precipitation p -value only slightly exceeded the p -value threshold for a statistically significant trend. Given the upward trend in precipitation in the East Texas Climate Division, which includes the Big Cypress Basin, and the low p -value for annual precipitation within the basin, precipitation in the basin may be increasing over time. Two annual streamflow trends, one upward and one downward, were in the upper parts of the basin. Data from USGS streamflow-gaging station 07346000 Big Cypress Bayou near Jefferson, Texas, indicated an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow and a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. The station is immediately downstream from Lake O’ the Pines; presumably, minimums have increased because of regulated releases, and annual peaks have decreased because of storage from the lake for flood control. Despite the known addition of 2,737,154 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1898 and 2011 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Big Cypress Basin, except for within the drainage area for the farthest upstream station on the main stem downstream from Mount Pleasant, Texas. Within the Guadalupe River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated an upward trend in the lower section of the basin, but no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the upper section of the basin, data from 1 of the 13 stations indicated an upward trend in annual streamflow. Data from 6 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated a trend in annual minimum streamflow with 4 upward and 2 downward trends. Data from 2 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 2,016,534 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1849 and 2013 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Guadalupe River Basin. Within the Neches River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in the basin. None of the data from stations analyzed in the Neches River Basin indicated annual trends in streamflow despite upward trends in annual precipitation within the basin. Data from 9 of the 19 stations analyzed in the basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Data from one of the simulated-inflow stations indicated a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow into Sam Rayburn Reservoir. Data from two stations indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one small subbasin indicated an upward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 4,839,609 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1888 and 2008 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Neches River Basin. Within the Sulphur River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated a moderate upward trend within the basin. Data from only one of the stations, the simulated inflow to Jim Chapman Lake, indicated an annual upward trend in streamflow despite an upward trend in annual precipitation throughout the basin. Data from three of the six stations in the Sulphur River Basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from one of the six stations indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 6,933,361 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1904 and 2006 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Sulphur River Basin. Within the Trinity River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in most sections of the basin. Data from 8 of the 36 stations analyzed for trends in annual streamflow indicated upward trends, and all 8 stations are in the upper sections of the basin. None of the data from stations in the lower sections of the basin indicated trends in annual streamflow. Data from 16 of the 36 stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Upward trends in annual minimum streamflow could be the result of managed reservoir releases in combination with wastewater treatment plant releases in the large Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in the upper sections of the basin. All the trends in annual peak streamflow were in the sections of the basin that include the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Data from two stations, one USGS streamflow-gaging station and one simulated-inflow station, indicated upward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one streamflow-gaging station indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Of the basins included in this study, the Trinity River Basin has the second largest amount of potential flood storage of 8,947,349 acre-feet from dams added between 1890 and 2013. Eleven stations in the Trinity River Basin had positive associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume, indicating that annual streamflow increases as potential flood storage increases. Data from 7 of the 11 stations also indicated upward trends in annual streamflow. The positive associations may be the result of increases in minimum streamflow, which could be the result of any combination of managed reservoir releases, wastewater treatment plant releases, or increased runoff from urbanized areas, particularly in the urbanized area of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Texas↗

USGS2021

Hydrogeology and model-simulated groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer, southwestern Oklahoma, 1980–2015

The 1973 Oklahoma Water Law (82 OK Stat § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin (hereinafter referred to as an “aquifer”). The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is known as the equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rate. At present (2021), the OWRB has not yet established a maximum annual yield and EPS pumping rate for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. To provide updated information to the OWRB that could support evaluation and determination of an appropriate maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the OWRB, conducted a hydrologic investigation and evaluated the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. The Salt Fork Red River aquifer in Greer, Harmon, and Jackson Counties of southwestern Oklahoma is composed of about 274.5 square miles of alluvium and terrace deposits associated with the Salt Fork Red River. The mean annual recharge rate to the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 was estimated to be about 2.94 inches per year, or 10.0 percent of the mean annual precipitation for the same period (29.4 inches per year). This 1980–2015 mean annual recharge rate is equivalent to a mean annual recharge rate of about 38,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer excluding about 19,764 acres comprising the Mulberry Creek and Horse Creek terraces. The mean annual recharge rates upgradient and downgradient from USGS streamgage 07300500 Salt Fork Red River at Mangum, Okla. (hereinafter referred to as the “Mangum gage”), apportioned by aquifer area (41.5 and 58.5 percent, respectively), were about 16,000 and 22,000 acre-ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual groundwater use for the study period (1980–2015) was 3,532.7 acre-ft/yr; about 77 percent of that groundwater use was for irrigation, and about 23 percent was for public supply. Most groundwater use for irrigation was associated with wells in the Martha terrace. A hydrogeologic framework was developed for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and included a definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of the numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer that reasonably represents the groundwater-flow system was developed to constrain the construction and calibration of the numerical model. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 and included a subaccounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from the Mangum gage. The numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was constructed by using MODFLOW-2005 with the Newton formulation solver. The model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was spatially discretized into 1,050 rows, 1,125 columns, about 170,000 active cells measuring 200 by 200 feet (ft), and a single convertible layer. The model was temporally discretized into 432 monthly transient stress periods (each with two time steps to improve model stability). An initial steady-state stress period represented mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the aquifer and produced a solution that was used as the initial condition for subsequent transient stress periods as well as some groundwater-availability scenarios. The model was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells and base-flow observations at selected streamgages. The simulated saturated thickness of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was determined by subtracting the altitude of the aquifer base from the simulated water-table altitude at the end of the numerical-model period (2015). The simulated saturated thickness was more than 75 ft in a paleochannel in the Dodson terrace near the Texas border. The mean aquifer thickness (sum of saturated and unsaturated) was 49.62 ft, and the mean saturated thickness was 28.55 ft. A simulated mean transmissivity of 1,024 feet squared per day was computed from the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and saturated thickness of each cell. The simulated available water in storage at the end of the numerical-model period (2015) was 526,117 acre-feet (acre-ft); about 42 percent of that total was available upgradient from the Mangum gage, and about 58 percent of that total was available downgradient from the Mangum gage (including the Mangum terrace). Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were run using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that ensures a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were about 0.51, 0.48, and 0.48 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 155,929-acre modeled aquifer area, these rates correspond to annual yields of about 78,800, 74,900, and 74,700 acre-ft/yr, respectively. For the 20-year EPS scenario, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 6-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases; for the 40- and 50-year EPS scenarios, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 7-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases. Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and base flows in the Salt Fork Red River. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by quantifying differences in groundwater storage and base flow in four 50-year scenarios, which applied (1) no groundwater pumping, (2) mean pumping rates for the study period (1980–2015), (3) 2015 pumping rates, and (4) increasing demand pumping rates at simulated wells. The increasing demand pumping rates assumed a cumulative 20.4-percent increase in pumping over 50 years based on 2010–60 demand projections for southwestern Oklahoma. Groundwater storage after 50 years with no pumping was 535,000 acre-ft, or 8,900 acre-ft (1.7 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude increase of 0.48 ft. Groundwater storage after 50 years of pumping at the mean rate for the study period (1980–2015) was 519,900 acre-ft, or 6,200 acre-ft (1.2 percent) less than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.34 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with 2015 pumping rates was 513,100 acre-ft, or 13,000 acre-ft (2.5 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.71 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with increasing demand pumping rates was 509,700 acre-ft, or 16,500 acre-ft (3.1 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.89 ft. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage. The period January 1983–December 1992 was chosen as the simulated drought period. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model (no drought) at the end of the simulated drought period (1992). To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1983–92). Upstream inflows from the Salt Fork Red River, Turkey Creek, and Bitter Creek were reduced by 75 percent. Groundwater storage at the end of the drought period (1992) was 479,200 acre-ft, or 53,200 acre-ft (10.0 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model at the end of the drought period. This decrease in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 2.9 ft. At the end of the 10-year hypothetical drought period, simulated base flows at the Mangum gage and USGS streamgage 07301110 Salt Fork Red River near Elmer, Okla., had decreased by about 80 and 70 percent, respectively.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Water Quality, Cyanobacteria, and Environmental Factors and Their Relations to Microcystin Concentrations for Use in Predictive Models at Ohio Lake Erie and Inland Lake Recreational Sites, 2013-14

Harmful cyanobacterial “algal” blooms (cyanoHABs) and associated toxins, such as microcystin, are a major water-quality issue for Lake Erie and inland lakes in Ohio. Predicting when and where a bloom may occur is important to protect the public that uses and consumes a water resource; however, predictions are complicated and likely site specific because of the many factors affecting toxin production. Monitoring for a variety of environmental and water-quality factors, for concentrations of cyanobacteria by molecular methods, and for algal pigments such as chlorophyll and phycocyanin by using optical sensors may provide data that can be used to predict the occurrence of cyanoHABs. To test these monitoring approaches, water-quality samples were collected at Ohio recreational sites during May–November in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, samples were collected monthly at eight sites at eight lakes to facilitate an initial assessment and select sites for more intensive sampling during 2014. In 2014, samples were collected approximately weekly at five sites at three lakes. Physical water-quality parameters were measured at the time of sampling. Composite samples were preserved and analyzed for dissolved and total nutrients, toxins, phytoplankton abundance and biovolume, and cyanobacterial genes by molecular methods. Molecular assays were done to enumerate (1) general cyanobacteria, (2) general Microcystis and Dolichospermum ( Anabaena ), (3) mcyE genes for Microcystis , Dolichospermum ( Anabaena ), and Planktothrix targeting deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), and (4) mcyE transcripts for Microcystis , Dolichospermum ( Anabaena ), and Planktothrix targeting ribonucleic acid (RNA).The DNA assays for the mcyE gene provide data on cyanobacteria that have the potential to produce microcystin, whereas the RNA assays provide data on cyanobacteria that are actively transcribing the toxin gene. Environmental data were obtained from available online sources. Quality-control (QC) samples were collected and analyzed for all constituents to characterize bias and variability; however, QC data for molecular assays were examined in more detail than for the other constituents. The QC data for molecular assays suggested that sampling variability and qPCR variability were small in comparison with the combined variability associated with sample filtering, extraction and purification, and the matrix itself. A total of 46 water-quality samples were collected during 2013 at 8 beach sites—Buck Creek, Buckeye Crystal, Deer Creek, Harsha Main, Maumee Bay State Park (MBSP) Inland (negative control site), MBSP Lake Erie, Port Clinton, and Sandusky Bay. Microcystin was detected in 67–100 percent of samples at all sites except for MBSP Inland, where microcystin was detected in only 20 percent of samples. Microcystin concentrations ranged from <0.10 to 48 micrograms per liter (µ/L), with the widest range found at MBSP Lake Erie and the highest concentrations found at Buckeye Crystal. Saxitoxin was detected in five samples, and cylindrospermopsin was not detected in any samples. A total of 65 water-quality samples were collected during 2014 at 5 sites on 3 lakes—Buckeye Fairfield and Onion Island, Harsha Main and Campers, and MBSP Lake Erie beach. Four of the sites were bathing beaches and one site, Onion Island, was an offshore boater swim area. Concentrations of microcystin ranged from <0.10 to 240 µ/L and, as in 2013, the widest range was found at MBSP Lake Erie. At Buckeye Lake, microcystin concentrations were consistently high (greater than 20 µ/L), ranging from 23 to 81 µ/L. At Harsha Main and Campers, microcystin concentrations ranged from <0.10 to 15 µ/L. Saxitoxin was detected in four samples collected at MBSP Lake Erie. Throughout the 2014 season, the cyanobacterial community, as determined by molecular and microscopy methods, and the dominance associated with the highest microcystin concentrations were unique to individual lakes. At Buckeye Lake, Planktothrix dominated the cyanobacterial community throughout the season and Planktothrix DNA and RNA were found in 100 percent of samples; Microcystis mcyE DNA was found in low concentrations. At Harsha Lake, Dolichospermum and Microcystis were a substantial percentage of the community from late May through August, and the highest microcystin concentrations occurred in June and July. At MBSP Lake Erie, Microcystis generally dominated from mid-July through early November, and the highest microcystin concentrations occurred in August. Spearman’s correlation coefficient (rho) was computed to determine the relations between environmental and water-quality factors and microcystin concentrations at four sites—Buckeye Fairfield, Buckeye Onion Island, Harsha Main, and MBSP Lake Erie. Factors were evaluated for use as potential independent variables in two types of predictive models—daily and long-term models. Easily or continuously measured water-quality factors and available environmental data are used for daily predictions that do not require a site visit. Data from factors used in daily predictions and results from samples collected and analyzed in a laboratory are used for long-term predictions (a few days to several weeks). A few statistically significant correlations (p ≤ 0.05) between microcystin concentrations and factors for both daily and long-term predictions were found at Buckeye Onion Island, and many were found at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie. There were only a few statistically significant factors for daily predictions at Buckeye Fairfield, likely because of the lack of variability in microcystin concentrations. Among factors for daily predictions, phycocyanin had the highest Spearman’s correlation to microcystin concentrations (rho = 0.79 to 0.93) at all sites except for Buckeye Fairfield. Turbidity, pH, algae category, and Secchi depth were significantly correlated to microcystin concentrations at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie. Algae categories were observational categories from 0 (none) to 4 (extreme). Several discharge variables (Maumee River at Waterville, river mouth is approximately 3.5 miles from the beach) at MBSP Lake Erie were promising environmental factors for daily predictions. In addition to discrete water-quality measurements recorded at Harsha Main at the time of sampling, many manipulated measurements (factors derived from mathematical manipulation of time-series data) available from a nearby continuous monitor were strongly correlated to microcystin concentrations; the highest correlation was found for the relation between microcystin concentrations and the antecedent 7-day average phycocyanin (rho = 0.98). For long-term predictions, the most highly correlated molecular assays were Planktothrix mcyE DNA at Buckeye Onion Island and Microcystis mcyE DNA at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie. Concentrations of several nutrient constituents were significantly correlated to microcystin concentrations including total nitrogen at Buckeye Onion Island, ammonia and nitrate plus nitrite (both negatively correlated) at Harsha Main and MBSP Lake Erie, and total phosphorus at MBSP Lake Erie. The results of this study showed that water-quality and environmental variables are promising for use in site-specific daily or long-term predictive models. In order to develop more accurate models to predict toxin concentrations at freshwater lake sites, data need to be collected more frequently and for consecutive days in future studies.

Ohio↗

USGS2019

Spatial and temporal variability of harmful algal blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, May through November 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), completed a study to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, over a range of environmental conditions at various time scales (hours to months). A better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacteria and microcystin will inform sampling and management strategies for Milford Lake and for other lakes with cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB) issues throughout the Nation. Spatial and temporal variability were assessed in the upstream one-third of Milford Lake (designated as “Zone C” by KDHE) during May through November 2016 using a combination of time-lapse photography, continuous water-quality monitors, discrete phytoplankton, chlorophyll, and microcystin samples, and spatially dense near-surface data. Combined, these data were used to characterize variability of cyanobacterial abundance, algal biomass, and microcystin concentrations in Zone C of Milford Lake before, during, and after cyanobacterial blooms in 2016. Temporal patterns were evaluated during May through November 2016 using time-lapse photography at six locations in Zone C and at a single point location (the Wakefield site) using a combination of discrete and continuously measured water-quality data (including the cyanobacterial pigment phycocyanin). Based on time-lapse photography, CyanoHABs developed in Zone C of Milford Lake in early July and persisted through the end of November. Bloom accumulations at individual sites were dependent on wind direction. After a change in wind direction, it would take about 1 day for accumulations to become visible at different locations. During periods with low wind, accumulations were widespread and visible at all sites. Cyanobacteria were absent from the algal community at the Wakefield site in late May and were a minor component of the community in June; however, by mid-July the cyanobacteria were dominant and remained dominant until early November. Chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site were estimated using sensor-measured phycocyanin based on regression models developed for Zone C. Regression-estimated concentrations likely are more indicative of seasonal patterns in algal biomass (as indicated by chlorophyll concentrations) and microcystin than discretely collected samples because regression-estimated data have a much higher temporal resolution. Based on regression estimates, algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site steadily increased from May through August. After August, concentrations decreased but remained relatively high compared to May and June. Daily chlorophyll maxima were as much as 400 times higher than daily minima, and daily microcystin maxima were as many as several orders of magnitude higher than daily minima. The extreme variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site reflects the development and dissipation of blooms, as indicated by the time-lapse cameras. Based on regression-estimated microcystin concentrations, the KDHE watch and warning thresholds for microcystin were exceeded during mid-June through late November. Exceedance of KDHE advisory thresholds often changed from no advisory to watch or warning over the course of the day because of the variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations caused by bloom development and dissipation. Continuous water-quality monitors may be useful in informing public-health decisions in lakes with variable CyanoHAB conditions; however, site-specific models need to be developed, and best practices for using continuous water-quality monitors to inform CyanoHAB management strategies need to be established. Spatial data were collected on May 26, July 21, and September 15, 2016, using a combination of a boat-mounted array and discrete water-quality samples analyzed for phytoplankton community composition and chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. Spatial patterns were described using regression-estimated chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. During the May 26, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances were relatively low throughout Zone C and did not exceed KDHE guidance values compared to spatial surveys on July 21 and September 15. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass uplake in Zone C, and decreases in the downlake direction towards Zone B. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations also were more variable uplake than downlake. Based on regression estimates, microcystin concentrations did not exceed KDHE guidance values anywhere in Zone C on May 26. Spatial patterns in microcystin throughout Zone C did not match patterns in regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, likely because the algal community was not dominated by cyanobacteria at most locations in May. During the July 21, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances in Zone C exceeded KDHE guidance values in 50 percent of samples. The algal community in Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria at all locations except two, where cyanobacteria codominated with diatoms. Both locations where cyanobacteria and diatoms codominated were north of the causeway. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass north of the causeway and on the eastern shore of Zone C. On July 21, algal biomass did not always decrease in the downlake direction. There was a decrease just south of the causeway but an increase shortly after with higher concentrations into Zone B. Spatial maps indicated changes in algal distribution at a 0.5-meter depth, with algae moving to the central part of the lake north of the causeway and along the eastern shore south of the causeway. Most regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on July 21 exceeded KDHE guidance values, reflecting the pervasive bloom conditions in Zone C during this period. Spatial patterns in regression-estimated microcystin concentrations throughout Zone C were similar to patterns seen in discrete samples and regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, with higher concentrations north of the causeway and on the east shore of Zone C. During the September 15, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances did not exceed KDHE guidance values. The algal community north of the causeway was dominated by diatoms. The algal community throughout the rest of Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria. Of regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on September 15, 80 percent did not exceed KDHE guidance values. Spatial patterns indicated northward movement of the cyanobacterial bloom consistent with a wind shift noted the previous day. On September 14, winds were generally from the north to northwest, shifting to the south by September 15. There was a northward progression of chlorophyll and microcystin during the spatial surveys. These data, along with the camera data and spatial and wind data from May and July, indicate that wind can be a major driver of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake and likely plays a role in the extent and duration of near-shore accumulations.

Kansas↗

USGS2016

Water-quality trends and constituent-transport analysis for selected sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996–2015

During the extended history of mining in the upper Clark Fork Basin in Montana, large amounts of waste materials enriched with metallic contaminants (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc) and the metalloid trace element arsenic were generated from mining operations near Butte and milling and smelting operations near Anaconda. Extensive deposition of mining wastes in the Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork channels and flood plains had substantial effects on water quality. Federal Superfund remediation activities in the upper Clark Fork Basin began in 1983 and have included substantial remediation near Butte and removal of the former Milltown Dam near Missoula. To aid in evaluating the effects of remediation activities on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting streamflow and water-quality data in the upper Clark Fork Basin in the 1980s. Trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, copper, and zinc), and suspended sediment for seven sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site for water years 1996–2015. The most upstream site included in trend analysis is Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs, Montana (sampling site 8), and the most downstream site is Clark Fork above Missoula, Montana (sampling site 22), which is just downstream from the former Milltown Dam. Water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. Trend analysis was done by using a joint time-series model for concentration and streamflow. To provide temporal resolution of changes in water quality, trend analysis was conducted for four sequential 5-year periods: period 1 (water years 1996–2000), period 2 (water years 2001–5), period 3 (water years 2006–10), and period 4 (water years 2011–15). Because of the substantial effect of the intentional breach of Milltown Dam on March 28, 2008, period 3 was subdivided into period 3A (October 1, 2005–March 27, 2008) and period 3B (March 28, 2008–September 30, 2010) for the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22). Trend results were considered statistically significant when the statistical probability level was less than 0.01. In conjunction with the trend analysis, estimated normalized constituent loads (hereinafter referred to as “loads”) were calculated and presented within the framework of a constituent-transport analysis to assess the temporal trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) in the context of sources and transport. The transport analysis allows assessment of temporal changes in relative contributions from upstream source areas to loads transported past each reach outflow. Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper decreased at the sampling sites from the start of period 1 through the end of period 4; the decreases ranged from large for one sampling site (Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs [sampling site 8]) to moderate for two sampling sites (Clark Fork near Galen, Montana [sampling site 11] and Clark Fork above Missoula [sampling site 22]) to small for four sampling sites (Clark Fork at Deer Lodge, Montana [sampling site 14], Clark Fork at Goldcreek, Montana [sampling site 16], Clark Fork near Drummond, Montana [sampling site 18], and Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner, Montana [sampling site 20]). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling sites 8 and 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant. Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from minor (sampling sites 8–20) to small (sampling site 22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for sampling site 8 and near statistically significant decreases for sampling site 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant. Trend results indicate that FACs of suspended sediment decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from moderate (sampling site 8) to small (sampling sites 11–22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the changes in FACs of suspended sediment were not statistically significant for any sampling sites. The reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic contaminants and suspended sediment, which strongly affects downstream transport of those constituents. Mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from flood-plain tailings and the streambed of the Clark Fork and its tributaries within the reach results in a contribution of those constituents that is proportionally much larger than the contribution of streamflow from within the reach. Within the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge, unfiltered-recoverable copper loads increased by a factor of about 4 and suspended-sediment loads increased by a factor of about 5, whereas streamflow increased by a factor of slightly less than 2. For period 4 (water years 2011–15), unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended-sediment loads sourced from within the reach accounted for about 41 and 14 percent, respectively, of the loads at Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22), whereas streamflow sourced from within the reach accounted for about 4 percent of the streamflow at sampling site 22. During water years 1996–2015, decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment for the reach generally were proportionally smaller than for most other reaches. Unfiltered-recoverable copper loads sourced within the reaches of the Clark Fork between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner (just upstream from the former Milltown Dam) were proportionally smaller than contributions of streamflow sourced from within the reaches; these reaches contributed proportionally much less to copper loading in the Clark Fork than the reach between Galen and Deer Lodge. Although substantial decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment were indicated for Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs (sampling site 8), those substantial decreases were not translated to downstream reaches between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner. The effect of the reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge as a large source of copper and suspended sediment, in combination with little temporal change in those constituents for the reach, contributes to this pattern. With the removal of the former Milltown Dam in 2008, substantial amounts of contaminated sediments that remained in the Clark Fork channel and flood plain in reach 9 (downstream from Turah Bridge near Bonner) became more available for mobilization and transport than before the dam removal. After the removal of the former Milltown Dam, the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22) had statistically significant decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper in period 3B (March 28, 2008, through water year 2010) that continued in period 4 (water years 2011–15). Also, decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic and suspended sediment were indicated for period 4 at this site. The decrease in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling site 22 during period 4 was proportionally much larger than the decrease for the Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner (sampling site 20). Net mobilization of unfiltered-recoverable copper and arsenic from sources within reach 9 are smaller for period 4 than for period 1 when the former Milltown Dam was in place, providing evidence that contaminant source materials have been substantially reduced in reach 9.

Montana↗

USGS2012

Water quality and the composition of fish and macroinvertebrate communities in the Devils and Pecos Rivers within and upstream from the Amistad National Recreation Area, Texas, 2005-7

To gain a better understanding of the water quality and status of fish and macroinvertebrate communities, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service and Amistad National Recreation Area, completed a reconnaissance-level survey of the water quality and fish and macroinvertebrate communities in the Devils and Pecos Rivers in and upstream from the Amistad National Recreation Area in southwest Texas during 2005–7. Water-quality conditions during the spring and summer months of 2005 in the Devils and Pecos Rivers were assessed at locations just upstream from the Amistad National Recreation Area, and the composition of fish and macroinvertebrate communities were assessed during 2006 and 2007 in and upstream from the Amistad National Recreation Area and Amistad Reservoir. Water-quality samples were collected at one site on both the Devils and Pecos Rivers. Fish and macroinvertebrates were collected at the water-quality sampling site on each river and at three additional sites on each river. The water-quality constituents of primary concern were total dissolved solids, chloride, sulfate, ammonia plus organic nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, orthophosphate, phosphorus, selenium, and selected pesticides. During the spring and summer of 2005, the concentrations of total dissolved solids ranged from 208 to 232 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in samples from the Devils River compared to 1,460 to 2,390 mg/L in samples from the Pecos River. Total dissolved solid concentrations measured in samples collected from the Devils River and Pecos River did not exceed the proposed State of Texas water-quality standard applicable for the segments of each river where samples were collected. During the spring and summer of 2005, chloride concentrations measured in samples collected in 2005 from the Devils River ranged from 11.6 to 12.9 mg/L, compared to chloride concentrations measured in samples collected from the Pecos River, which ranged from 519 to 879 mg/L. Chloride concentrations in samples collected from the Devils River in 2005 were less than the lower quartile (25th percentile) value of 14.0 mg/L reported for chloride concentrations in water-quality samples collected at the same sampling location during 1978–95 by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Hydrologic Benchmark Network program. The chloride concentrations measured in samples collected from the Pecos River during the spring and summer of 2005 represented a range of values similar to the interquartile range of 548 to 942 mg/L reported for samples collected during 1974–2007 at the same sampling location by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the National Stream Quality Accounting Network program. None of the chloride concentrations measured in samples collected from the Devils or Pecos Rivers in 2005 exceeded applicable proposed State of Texas water-quality standards for chloride. Sulfate concentrations ranged from 7.55 to 8.20 mg/L in samples from the Devils River compared to 298 to 503 mg/L in samples from the Pecos River. Concentrations of sulfate did not exceed applicable proposed State of Texas water-quality standards. Ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations were reported as nitrogen ranged from 0.12 to 0.14 mg/L of nitrogen in samples collected from the Devils River compared to 0.15 to 0.32 mg/L of nitrogen in samples collected from the Pecos River. Ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations measured in samples collected from the Devils River in 2005 were less than the lower quartile (25th percentile) value of 0.23 mg/L of nitrogen for concentrations in water-quality samples collected at the same sampling location during 1978–95 by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Hydrologic Benchmark Network program. Ammonia plus nitrogen concentrations measured in samples collected from the Pecos River were similar to the range of historical concentrations measured in samples collected from the same Pecos River sampling location by the U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network program. Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations in samples from the Devils River and Pecos Rivers were within the historical range of concentrations for samples collected at the same locations on each river. Total phosphorous and orthophosphate concentrations were less than the laboratory reporting levels in the water samples from the Devils and Pecos Rivers. None of the selenium concentrations measured in samples collected during the spring and summer of 2005 from the Devils or Pecos Rivers exceeded the Texas Surface Water Quality Standards (chronic criterion of 5 μg/L or the acute criterion of 20 μg/L) established by the State for the protection of aquatic life. Concentrations of pesticides in the samples collected from the Devils and Pecos Rivers during March–August 2005 were very low and not present in detectable amounts (all reported concentrations were below laboratory reporting levels). The total number of fish species collected was the same in the Devils River and Pecos River, but the species found in the two rivers varied slightly. The number of fish species generally increased from the site farthest upstream to the site farthest downstream in the Devils River, and decreased between the site farthest upstream and site farthest downstream in the Pecos River. The redbreast sunfish was the most abundant species collected in the Devils River, and the blacktail shiner was the most abundant species collected in the Pecos River. Comparing the species from each river, the percentage of omnivorous fish species was larger at the more downstream sites closer to Amistad Reservoir, and the percentage of species tolerant of environmental stressors was larger in the Pecos River. The fish community, assessed on the basis of the number of shared species among the sites sampled, was more similar to the fish community at the other sites on the same river than it was to the fish community from any other site in the other river. More macroinvertebrate taxa were collected in the Devils River than in the Pecos River. The largest number of macroinvertebrate taxa were from the site second farthest downstream on the Devils River, and the smallest numbers of macroinvertebrate taxa were from the farthest downstream site on the Pecos River. Mayflies were more common in the Devils River, and caddisflies were less common than mayflies at most sites. Net-spinning caddisflies were more common at the Devils River sites. The combined percent of mayfly, caddisfly, and stonefly taxa was generally larger at the Pecos River sites. Riffle beetles were the most commonly collected beetle taxon among all sites, and water-penny beetles were only collected at the Pecos River sites. A greater number of true midge taxa were collected more than any other taxa at the genus and species taxonomic level. Non-insect macroinvertebrate taxa were more common at the Devils River sites. Corbicula sp. (presumably the introduced Asian clam) was found at sites in both rivers, and amphipods were more abundant in the Devils River. The Margalef species richness index, based on aquatic insect taxa only, was larger at the Devils River sites than at the Pecos River sites. The Hilsenhoff's biotic index was largest at the site farthest downstream in the Devils River and smallest at the site second farthest downstream in the Pecos River. Overall similarity among sites based on the number of shared macroinvertebrate taxa indicated that each site is more similar to other sites on the same river than to sites on the other river.

Texas↗

USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

USGS2013

Sources and characteristics of organic matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, related to the formation of disinfection by-products in treated drinking water

This study characterized the amount and quality of organic matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, to gain an understanding of sources that contribute to the formation of chlorinated and brominated disinfection by-products (DBPs), focusing on regulated DBPs in treated drinking water from two direct-filtration treatment plants that together serve approximately 100,000 customers. The central hypothesis guiding this study was that natural organic matter leaching out of the forested watershed, in-stream growth of benthic algae, and phytoplankton blooms in the reservoirs contribute different and varying proportions of organic carbon to the river. Differences in the amount and composition of carbon derived from each source affects the types and concentrations of DBP precursors entering the treatment plants and, as a result, yield varying DBP concentrations and species in finished water. The two classes of DBPs analyzed in this study-trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs)-form from precursors within the dissolved and particulate pools of organic matter present in source water. The five principal objectives of the study were to (1) describe the seasonal quantity and character of organic matter in the Clackamas River; (2) relate the amount and composition of organic matter to the formation of DBPs; (3) evaluate sources of DBP precursors in the watershed; (4) assess the use of optical measurements, including in-situ fluorescence, for estimating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and DBP formation; and (5) assess the removal of DBP precursors during treatment by conducting treatability "jar-test" experiments at one of the treatment plants. Data collection consisted of (1) monthly sampling of source and finished water at two drinking-water treatment plants; (2) event-based sampling in the mainstem, tributaries, and North Fork Reservoir; and (3) in-situ continuous monitoring of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM), turbidity, chlorophyll- a , and other constituents to continuously track source-water conditions in near real-time. Treatability tests were conducted during the four event-based surveys to determine the effectiveness of coagulant and powdered activated carbon (PAC) on the removal of DBP precursors. Sample analyses included DOC, total particulate carbon (TPC), total and dissolved nutrients, absorbance and fluorescence spectroscopy, and, for regulated DBPs, concentrations of THMs and HAAs in finished water and laboratory-based THM and HAA formation potentials (THMFP and HAAFP, respectively) for source water and selected locations throughout the watershed. The results of this study may not be typical given the record and near record amounts of precipitation that occurred during spring that produced streamflow much higher than average in 2010-11. Although there were algal blooms, lower concentrations of chlorophyll- a were observed in the water column during the study period compared to historical data. Concentrations of DBPs in finished (treated) water averaged 0.024 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for THMs and 0.022 mg/L for HAAs; maximum values were about 0.040 mg/L for both classes of DBPs. Although DBP concentrations were somewhat higher within the distribution system, none of the samples collected for this study or for the quarterly compliance monitoring by the water utilities exceeded levels permissible under existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) regulations: 0.080 mg/L for THMs and 0.060 mg/L for HAAs. DOC concentrations were generally low in the Clackamas River, typically about 1.0-1.5 mg/L. Concentrations in the mainstem occasionally increased to nearly 2.5 mg/L during storms; DOC concentrations in tributaries were sometimes much higher (up to 7.8 mg/L). The continuous in-situ FDOM measurements indicated sharp rises in DOC concentrations in the mainstem following rainfall events; concentrations were relatively stable during summer base flow. Even though the first autumn storm mobilized appreciable quantities of carbon, higher concentrations of DBPs in finished water were observed 3-weeks later, after the ground was saturated from additional rainfall. The majority of the DOC in the lower Clackamas River appears to originate from the upper basin, suggesting terrestrial carbon was commonly the dominant source. Lower-basin tributaries typically contained the highest concentrations of DOC and DBP precursors and contributed substantially to the overall loads in the mainstem during storms. During low-flow periods, tributaries were not major sources of DOC or DBP precursors to the Clackamas River. Although the dissolved fraction of organic carbon contributed the majority of DBP precursors, at times the particulate fraction (inorganic sediment and organic particles including detritus and algal material) contributed a substantial fraction of DBP precursors. Considering just the main-stem sites, on average, 10 percent of THMFP and 32 percent of HAAFP were attributed to particulate carbon. This finding suggests water-treatment methods that remove particles prior to chlorination would reduce finished-water DBP concentrations to some degree. Overall, concentrations of THM and HAA precursors were closely linked to DOC concentrations; laboratory DBP formation potentials (DBPFPs) clearly showed that THMFP and HAAFP were greatest in the downstream tributaries that contained elevated carbon concentrations. However, carbon-normalized "specific" formation potentials for THMs and HAAs (STHMFP and SHAAFP, respectively) revealed changes in carbon character over time that affected the two types of DBP classes differently. HAA precursors were elevated in waters containing aromatic-rich soil-derived material arising from forested areas. In contrast, THM precursors were associated with carbon having a lower aromatic content; highest STHMFP occurred in autumn 2011 in the mainstem from North Fork Reservoir downstream to LO DWTP. This pattern suggests the potential for a link between THM precursors and algal-derived carbon. The highest STHMFP value was measured within North Fork Reservoir, indicating reservoir derived carbon may be important for this class of DBPs. Weak correlations between STHMFP and SHAAFP emphasize that precursor sources for these types of DBPs may be different. This highlights not only that different locations within the watershed produce carbon with different reactivity (specific DBPFP), but also that different management approaches for each class of DBP precursors could be required for control. Treatability tests conducted on source water during four basin-wide surveys demonstrated that an average of about 40 percent of DOC can be removed by coagulation. While the decrease in THMFP following coagulation was similar to DOC, the decrease in HAAFP was much greater (approximately 70 percent), indicating coagulation is particularly effective at removing HAA precursors'likely because of the aromatic nature of the carbon associated with HAA precursors. Several findings from this study have direct implications for managing drinking-water resources and for providing useful information that may help improve treatment-plant operations. For example, the use of in-situ fluorometers that measure FDOM provided an excellent proxy for DOC concentration in this system and revealed short-term, rapid changes in DOC concentration during storm events. In addition, the strong correlation between FDOM values measured in-situ and HAA5 concentrations in finished water may permit estimation of continuous HAA concentrations, as was done here. As part of this study, multiple in-situ FDOM sensors were deployed continuously and in real-time to characterize the composition of dissolved organic matter. Although the initial results were promising, additional research and engineering developments will be needed to demonstrate the full utility of these sensors for this purpose. In conclusion, although DBPFPs were strongly correlated to DOC concentration, some DBPs formed from particulate carbon, including terrestrial leaf material and algal material such as planktonic species of blue-green algae and sloughed filaments, stalks, and cells of benthic algae. Different precursor sources in the watershed were evident from the data, suggesting specific actions may be available to address some of these sources. In-situ measurements of FDOM proved to be an excellent proxy for DOC concentration as well as HAA formation during treatment, which suggests further development and refinement of these sensors have the potential to provide real-time information about complex watershed processes to operators at the drinking-water treatment plants. Follow-up studies could examine the relative roles that terrestrial and algal sources have on the DBP precursor pool to better understand how watershed-management activities may be affecting the transport of these compounds to Clackamas River drinking-water intakes. Given the low concentrations of algae in the water column during this study, additional surveys during more typical river conditions could provide a more complete understanding of how algae contribute DBP precursors. Further development of FDOM-sensor technology can improve our understanding of carbon dynamics in the river and how concentrations may be trending over time. This study was conducted in collaboration with Clackamas River Water and the City of Lake Oswego water utilities. Other research partners included Oregon Health and Science University in Hillsboro, Oregon, Alexin Laboratory in Tigard, Oregon, U.S. Geological Survey National Research Program Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, and the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers in Portland, Oregon, and Sacramento, California. This project was supported with funding from Clackamas River Water, City of Lake Oswego, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Water Research Foundation.

Oregon↗

USGS2010

Effects of selected low-impact-development (LID) techniques on water quality and quantity in the Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts: Field and modeling studies

During the months of August and September, flows in the Ipswich River, Massachusetts, dramatically decrease largely due to groundwater withdrawals needed to meet increased residential and commercial water demands. In the summer, rates of groundwater recharge are lower than during the rest of the year, and water demands are higher. From 2005 to 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative funding agreement with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, monitored small-scale installations of low-impact-development (LID) enhancements designed to diminish the effects of storm runoff on the quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater. Funding for the studies also was contributed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Targeted Watersheds Grant Program through a financial assistance agreement with Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. The monitoring studies examined the effects of (1) replacing an impervious parking lot surface with a porous surface on groundwater quality, (2) installing rain gardens and porous pavement in a neighborhood of 3 acres on the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, and (3) installing a 3,000-square foot (ft2) green roof on the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff. In addition, the effects of broad-scale implementation of LID techniques, reduced water withdrawals, and water-conservation measures on streamflow in large areas of the basin were simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey’s Ipswich River Basin model. From June 2005 to 2007, groundwater quality was monitored at the Silver Lake town beach parking lot in Wilmington, MA, prior to and following the replacement of the conventional, impervious-asphalt surface with a porous surface consisting primarily of porous asphalt and porous pavers. Changes in the concentrations of the water-quality constituents, phosphorus, nitrogen, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and total petroleum hydrocarbons, were monitored. Increased infiltration of precipitation did not result in discernible increases in concentrations of these potential groundwater contaminants. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased slightly in groundwater profiles following the removal of the impervious asphalt parking lot surface. In Wilmington, MA, in a 3-acre neighborhood, stormwater runoff volume and quality were monitored to determine the ability of selected LID enhancements (rain gardens and porous paving stones) to reduce flows and loads of the above constituents to Silver Lake. Flow-proportional water-quality samples were analyzed for nutrients, metals, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and total-coliform and Escherichia coli bacteria. In general, when all storms were considered, no substantial decreases were observed in runoff volume as a result of installing LID enhancements. However, the relation between rainfall and runoff did provide some insight into how the LID enhancements affected the effective impervious area for the neighborhood. A decrease in runoff was observed for storms of 0.2 inches (in.) or less of precipitation, which indicated a reduction in effective impervious area from approximately 10 percent to about 4.5 percent for the 3-acre area. Water-quality-monitoring results were inconclusive; there were no statistically significant differences in concentrations or loads when the pre- and post-installation-period samples were compared. Three factors were probably most important in minimizing differences: (1) the small decrease in effective impervious area, (2) the differences in the size of storms sampled for water-quality constituents before and after installation of the infiltration enhancing measures, and (3) small sample sizes. In a third field study, the characteristics of runoff from a vegetated “green” roof and a conventional, rubber-membrane roof were compared. The amount of precipitation and the length of the antecedent dry period were the two primary factors affecting the green roof’s water-storage capacity. The green roof retained more than 50 percent of the precipitation from storms with 0.04 to 1.0 in. of rain. Approximately 95 percent of the precipitation from one storm of nearly 2 in. was retained by the green roof. On the rubber-membrane roof, only a small, shallow puddle of insubstantial volume ever remained after a storm. Bulk precipitation from 10 storms was monitored for the same constituents (nutrients, metals, and total petroleum hydrocarbons) as the roof runoff, and the results were compared with those for roof-runoff samples. The use of fertilizers to help establish the vegetation during the study probably distorted any effect the plants and growing medium may have had on the retention of target analytes. As a result of the fertilizer and growing medium chemistry, median concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, cadmium, copper, and nickel in runoff from the green roof were greater than in the runoff from the conventional roof or in bulk precipitation. Concentrations of lead and zinc were greater in runoff from the conventional roof, probably a result of passage through the old, metal drainpipes. Simulations of the effects of LID on streamflow in the Ipswich River Basin were conducted with a previously calibrated Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model. Simulations were conducted at multiple spatial scales to evaluate the effects of (1) updated water withdrawals for the towns of Reading and Wilmington; (2) potential land-use changes at buildout (potential future development); (3) effective impervious area reductions upstream from the South Middleton streamgage to represent the effects of widespread implementation of LID retrofit techniques; (4) basin-scale water withdrawal reductions scaled up (expanded to the town level) from water-conservation pilot programs conducted by the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation; and (5) land-use change and LID techniques at a local scale, which is smaller than the HSPF subbasin. Effects on streamflow generally were evaluated by comparing results of two or more related simulations for selected reaches in the basin; thus, relative rather than absolute changes in simulated flow were the focus of the assessment. Simulations indicated that reduced withdrawals for the towns of Reading and Wilmington led to substantially higher medium and low flows in most of the reaches upstream from the South Middleton streamgage. Simulations of water-conservation measures resulted in negligible effects on streamflow. Overall, simulations indicated that spatial scale is an important factor in determining the effects of land-use change and LID practices on streamflow. Potential land-use changes at buildout had modest (percent differences of less than 20 percent) effects on streamflow in most subbasins because relatively little land in the basin was available for development (about 17 percent); moreover, most of the available open land is zoned for low-density residential development, and this land-use category was simulated to contain relatively little effective impervious area and to be similar hydrologically to the forested land in place prior to development. Results of the simulations conducted to evaluate widespread effective impervious area reductions upstream from the South Middleton streamgage indicated that the percentage of urban land use and associated effective impervious area was too small for a 50-percent reduction of effective impervious area to appreciably affect streamflow (percent differences of less than 20 percent) in most subbasins. In contrast, the results of the hypothetical local-scale simulations indicated that for smaller streams, where the percentage of urban land use and associated effective impervious area in the drainage area may be substantially higher, land-use change, development patterns, and LID practices potentially have much greater effects on streamflow. Modeling results also indicated that LID was potentially most beneficial for minimizing streamflow alteration when applied to dense urban development, largely because larger tracts of effective impervious area were available for reduction than were available for other land-use categories. For example, commercial-industrial-transportation land use is composed of 37 percent pervious area and 63 percent effective impervious area in the HSPF model, whereas low-density residential area is composed of 97.5 percent pervious area and only 2.5 percent effective impervious area. Field and modeling studies concurred in the assessment that LID enhancements would likely have the greatest effect on decreasing stormwater runoff when broadly applied to highly impervious urban areas. A measurable effect for small rainfall events (less than 0.25 inch) was determined in the small, highly pervious area that was monitored in this study, but the volume difference was not great.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Hydrogeological framework, numerical simulation of groundwater flow, and effects of projected water use and drought for the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma

This report describes a study of the hydrology, hydrogeological framework, numerical groundwater-flow models, and results of simulations of the effects of water use and drought for the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma. The purpose of the study was to provide analyses, including estimating equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-pumping rates and the effects of projected water use and droughts, pertinent to water management of the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer for the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer consists of unconsolidated sand, gravel, silt, and clay in varying proportions that underlies the Beaver and North Canadian River Valleys for approximately 175 miles (mi) from the Oklahoma Panhandle to the western edge of Oklahoma City in central Oklahoma. The aquifer as delineated for this study varies from 4 to 12 mi wide and is as thick as 308 feet (ft) in the northwest where the aquifer includes the Ogallala Formation. There are two distinct but in most areas hydraulically connected alluvial units that compose the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer: a Quaternary-age topographically higher terrace deposit and a topographically lower, younger alluvium along the active river channel that includes active and Quaternary-age alluvium. The Beaver River composes the headwaters of the North Canadian River, which begins at the confluence of the Beaver River and Wolf Creek. The aquifer is divided for water management into two geographic areas: Reach I upstream from Canton Dam and Reach II downstream from Canton Dam. Reach I covers an area of approximately 874 square miles (mi 2 ), and Reach II covers an area of approximately 371 mi 2 . The Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer crosses several climatic zones, from semiarid in the west to continental subhumid in the east. Mean annual precipitation varies from 23.5 inches (in.) in the western part of this aquifer to 35.7 in. in the east. Surface-water demands were met through numerous temporary and permanent surface-water diversions from the Beaver and North Canadian Rivers during the period of study. During the study period, seven diversions removed a mean annual 2,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) of water from Reach I. There were 14 diversions from Reach II with a mean annual permitted volume of approximately 81,000 acre-ft, including diversion into the Lake Hefner Canal for the Oklahoma City public water supply. During the period of this study, 17 temporary surface-water diversion permits were active in Reach I, with total permitted volumes of 2,000 acre-ft, and 41 diversions were active in Reach II, with total permitted volumes of 38,000 acre-ft. The total water use for each temporary permit was assumed to be taken over the 3-month period allotted to temporary withdrawal permits. The groundwater-use analysis full period of record, 1967–2011, was divided into two sub-intervals because of varying water use, 1970–80 and 1981–2011. Groundwater use in Reach I and Reach II was substantially greater from 1970 to 1980 compared to the rest of the period, and the sub-period 1981–2011 was used because this period includes recent population growth and modern irrigation methods. The total mean annual groundwater use in Reach I was 15,309 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) during 1967–2011; 20,724 acre-ft/yr during 1970–80, and 13,739 acre-ft/yr during 1981–2011. Total mean annual groundwater use in Reach II was similar but slightly less than in Reach I, with 14,098 acre-ft/yr during 1967–2011; 19,963 acre-ft/yr during 1970–80; and 12,285 acre-ft/yr during 1981–2011. Irrigation composed 72 percent of groundwater use in Reach I and 48 percent of groundwater use in Reach II during the 1967–2011 period. Public water supply was a much smaller proportion of total groundwater use in Reach I (15 percent) than in Reach II (39 percent). The proportion of groundwater use for power was 10 percent in Reach I and 5.2 percent in Reach II. All other water-use categories in Reach I only composed 2.2 percent of groundwater use in Reach I. In Reach II, industrial, mining, and commercial categories combined accounted for 4.4 percent of groundwater use; recreation, fish, and wildlife groundwater use accounted for 2.3 percent; and nonirrigated agriculture accounted for 1.5 percent of groundwater use. Permian-age bedrock underlies the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer. In the east, the Dog Creek Shale, the Duncan Sandstone, and the Blaine and Chickasha Formations, none of which are notable sources of groundwater in the study area, underlie the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer. In the northwestern part of Reach I, bedrock is composed of the Rush Springs and Marlow Formations, which are productive aquifers in some areas. The Cloud Chief Formation is not a source of groundwater. One hydrogeological unit was delineated in the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, composed of the terrace deposits and alluvium, with limited flow between this unit and bedrock units. Groundwater in this aquifer generally flows from northwest to southeast and across the aquifer toward the Beaver and North Canadian Rivers. Groundwater recharge from precipitation was estimated for the entire Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and then itemized for both reaches by using a soil-water-balance (SWB) model. At two locations in Reach I, a water-table fluctuation method was used to estimate local recharge. Total mean annual groundwater recharge from the soil-water-balance method was estimated to be approximately 136,400 acre-ft in Reach I and 82,400 acre-ft in Reach II; the mean annual recharge for both reaches combined was approximately 218,800 acre-ft. Two sites in Reach I located at observation wells with continuous water-level measurements and nearby streamflow-gaging stations with precipitation gages were used to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. The Woodward site was located at observation well OW-4 near the Woodward, Okla. (07237500), streamflow-gaging station. Total precipitation and recharge for the Woodward and Seiling sites were calculated for the water year 2013. The Woodward site had a total of 14.18 in. of precipitation and 6.3 in. of recharge was calculated, equaling 44 percent of precipitation. The mean percentage of precipitation that was estimated to become recharge in the SWB model for the period 1980–2011 at that location was 9.2 percent, although adjacent SWB-model cells were as high as 20 percent of precipitation. The Seiling site had a total of 26.84 in. of precipitation during the water year 2013, and a total of 6.9 in. of recharge was estimated, equaling 25.9 percent of precipitation. At the Seiling site, the mean percentage of precipitation that became recharge in the SWB model for the period 1980–2011 was 23.0 percent. The principal inflow to the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer was estimated to be surface recharge from precipitation, and plant evapotranspiration was estimated to be the greatest discharge, followed by stream and lake base flow, groundwater pumping, and flow to seeps and springs along the eastern margin of the aquifer. Reach I also included inflow from the High Plains aquifer as lateral inflow of groundwater, though this flow was estimated to be a very minor component of the total water budget. Most of the Beaver and North Canadian Rivers were determined to be gaining streamflow from groundwater, but several reaches in Reach I upstream from Wolf Creek were determined to be losing streamflow through infiltration to the aquifer. Aquifer hydrogeologic characteristics were estimated from borehole lithologic logs, well-construction information, and published aquifer tests and during numerical model calibration. The maximum saturated aquifer thickness in Reach I was estimated to be 308 ft, and the mean thickness was estimated to be 36 ft. The maximum saturated thickness in Reach II was estimated to be 86 ft, and the mean thickness was estimated to be 29 ft. Mean hydraulic conductivity of Reach I was estimated to be 70 feet per day (ft/d) with a range of 7–279 ft/d. Mean hydraulic conductivity in Reach II was estimated to be 92 ft/d with a range of 4–279 ft/d. Both reach models were calibrated manually by using trial-and-error adjustment of recharge, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and conductance of boundary conditions. The Reach I model used 28 head observations during the steady-state period of 1980 and 487 head observations during the transient period of 1981–2011. The root-mean-square error of head residuals (observed minus simulated head) was 3.86 ft, and 83 percent of head residuals were between -5 and 5 ft. The Reach II model was calibrated to 75 steady-state head observations and 134 head observations during the transient period. The root-mean-square error of head residuals for that reach was 3.58 ft, and similar to Reach I, 85 percent of residuals were between -5 and 5 ft. Several analyses were performed by using the numeric groundwater-flow models as predictive tools, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for both reaches. The EPS is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as an annual per-acre groundwater-pumping rate that will reduce saturated thickness in half of the aquifer to 5 ft or less over a period of 20 years; additional estimates were made for periods of 40 and 50 years. Other analyses included using models to estimate the effects of groundwater pumping and a prolonged drought on groundwater in storage and streamflow and lake storage of water. The EPS pumping rate was found to be approximately 0.57 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 0.73 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For a 40-year period, the annual EPS pumping rate was determined to be 0.54 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 0.61 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. For a 50-year period, the EPS pumping rate was determined to be 0.53 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 0.61 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Groundwater pumping at the 2011 rate for 50 years resulted in a 3.6-percent decrease in the amount of water in groundwater storage in Reach I and a decrease of 2.5 percent in the amount of groundwater in storage in Reach II. A cumulative 32-percent increase in pumping greater than the 2011 rate over a period of 50 years caused a decrease in groundwater storage of 4.0 percent in Reach I and 3.3 percent in Reach II. A hypothetical severe drought was simulated by using aquifer recharge flow rates during the drought year of 2011 for a period of 10 years. All other flows including evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping were set at estimated 2011 rates. The hypothetical drought caused a decrease in water in aquifer storage by about 7 percent in Reach I and 7 percent in Reach II. Another analysis of the effects of hypothetical drought estimated the effects of drought on streamflow and lake storage. The hypothetical drought was simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent for a selected 10-year period (1994–2004) during the 1980–2011 simulation. In Reach I, the amounts of water stored in Canton Lake and streamflow at the Seiling, Okla., streamflow-gaging station were analyzed. Streamflow at the Seiling station decreased by a mean of 75 percent and was still diminished by 10 percent after 2011. In Reach II, the effect of drought on the streamflow at the Yukon, Okla., streamflow-gaging station was examined. The greatest mean streamflow decrease was approximately 60 percent during the simulated drought, and after 2011, the mean decrease in streamflow was still about 5 percent. Canton Lake storage decreased by as much as 83 percent during the simulated drought and did not recover by 2011.

Oklahoma↗