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USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗

USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2000

Cytochrome P450 1A expression in midwater fishes: Potential effects of chemical contaminants in remote oceanic zones

Cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) induction is a robust marker for exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that are aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. We examined CYP1A expression in mesopelagic fishes from the western North Atlantic. Individuals in 22 species were obtained from slope water and the Sargasso Sea in 1977, 1978, and 1993. Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase (AHH), a CYP1A activity, was detected in liver from all species in 1977/78. In some, including Gonostoma elongatum, AHH was inhibited by the CYP1A inhibitor ??-naphthoflavone. CYP1A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) was detected in liver microsomes of all species in 1993; rates were highest in G. elongatum and Argyropelecus aculeatus. Immunoblot analysis with the CYP1A-specific monoclonal antibody 1-12-3 detected a single microsomal protein band in most 1993 samples; the highest content was in G. elongatum. Immunohistochemical analysis showed CYP1A staining in gill, heart, kidney, and/or liver of several species. Extracts of the 1993 G. elongatum and A. aculeatus, when applied to fish hepatoma cells (PLHC-1) in culture, elicited a significant induction of EROD in those cells. The capacity of the extracts to induce CYP1A correlated with the content of PCBs measured in the same fish (2-4.6 ng/g total body weight). Mesopelagic fish in the western North Atlantic, which experience no direct exposure to surface waters or sediments, are exposed chronically to inducers of CYP1A at levels that appear to be biochemically active in those fish.Cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) induction is a robust marker for exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that are awl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. We examined CYP1A expression in mesopelagic fishes from the western North Atlantic. Individuals in 22 species were obtained from slope water and the Sargasso Sea in 1977, 1978, and 1993. Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase (AHH), a CYP1A activity, was detected in liver from all species in 1977/78. In some, including Gonostoma elongatum, AHH was inhibited by the CYP1A inhibitor ??-naphthoflavone. CYP1A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) was detected in liver microsomes of all species in 1993; rates were highest in G. elongatum and Argyropelecus aculeatus. Immunoblot analysis with the CYP1A-specific monoclonal antibody 1-12-3 detected a single microsomal protein band in most 1993 samples; the highest content was in G. elongatum. Immunohistochemical analysis showed CYP1A staining in gill, heart, kidney, and/or liver of several species. Extracts of the 1993 G. elongatum and A. aculeatus, when applied to fish hepatoma cells (PLHC-1) in culture, elicited a significant induction of EROD in those cells. The capacity of the extracts to induce CYP1A correlated with the content of PCBs measured in the same fish (2-4.6 ng/g total body weight). Mesopelagic fish in the western North Atlantic, which experience no direct exposure to surface waters or sediments, are exposed chronically to inducers of CYP1A at levels that appear to be biochemically active in those fish.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2006

Composition of Titan's surface from Cassini VIMS

Titan's bulk density along with Solar System formation models indicates considerable water as well as silicates as its major constituents. This satellite's dense atmosphere of nitrogen with methane is unique. Deposits or even oceans of organic compounds have been suggested to exist on Titan's solid surface due to UV-induced photochemistry in the atmosphere. Thus, the composition of the surface is a major piece of evidence needed to determine Titan's history. However, studies of the surface are hindered by the thick, absorbing, hazy and in some places cloudy atmosphere. Ground-based telescope investigations of the integral disk of Titan attempted to observe the surface albedo in spectral windows between methane absorptions by calculating and removing the haze effects. Their results were reported to be consistent with water ice on the surface that is contaminated with a small amount of dark material, perhaps organic material like tholin. We analyze here the recent Cassini Mission's visual and infrared mapping spectrometer (VIMS) observations that resolve regions on Titan. VIMS is able to see surface features and shows that there are spectral and therefore likely compositional units. By several methods, spectral albedo estimates within methane absorption windows between 0.75 and 5 ??m were obtained for different surface units using VIMS image cubes from the Cassini-Huygens Titan Ta encounter. Of the spots studied, there appears to be two compositional classes present that are associated with the lower albedo and the higher albedo materials, with some variety among the brighter regions. These were compared with spectra of several different candidate materials. Our results show that the spectrum of water ice contaminated with a darker material matches the reflectance of the lower albedo Titan regions if the spectral slope from 2.71 to 2.79 ??m in the poorly understood 2.8-??m methane window is ignored. The spectra for brighter regions are not matched by the spectrum of water ice or unoxidized tholin, in pure form or in mixtures with sufficient ice or tholin present to allow the water ice or tholin spectral features to be discerned. We find that the 2.8-??m methane absorption window is complex and seems to consist of two weak subwindows at 2.7 and 2.8 ??m that have unknown opacities. A ratio image at these two wavelengths reveals an anomalous region on Titan that has a reflectance unlike any material so far identified, but it is unclear how much the reflectances in these two subwindows pertain to the surface. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Planetary and Space Science↗

USGS1997

A geologic history of the north-central Appalachians, part 2: The Appalachian basin from the Silurian through the Carboniferous

The north-central Appalachians occupy a critical position within the 3000+ km-long Appalachian orogen, lying southwest of the boundary between the central and northern Appalachians (CNAB). The one-billion-year-long history of tectonic activity in the north-central Appalachians includes the assembly and breakup of a late Proterozoic supercontinent, the creation and evolution of the Appalachian orogen during the Paleozoic, and the Mesozoic transformation of the active orogen into a passive margin during Pangea's disassembly. An important part of the Middle and Late Paleozoic history is the formation and growth of the Appalachian basin, an enormous, elongate continental basin lying cratonward of the active Appalachian internides along Laurentia's eastern margin. The Appalachian basin developed out of the Taconic orogeny, the second of the four orogenies that formed and modified the character of the Appalachian orogen. Prior to the Taconic orogeny, the eastern margin of Laurentia consisted of a broad carbonate shelf facing the Theic Ocean. The Taconic orogeny obduced various Theic components, including microcontinents, magmatic arcs, and accretionary prisms, onto the carbonate shelf. The resulting Taconic highlands formed a topographic barrier between Theia and the craton's interior. Because tectonic activity in the internides continued more or less throughout the remainder of the Paleozoic, the Appalachian basin never had a direct connection with Theia. The coarse-grained molasse from the newly uplifted Taconic highland spread westward over most of the basin during the Early Silurian. Carbonate deposition gradually encroached eastward over the basin as the siliciclastic input from the southeast waned. A resurgence in the earliest Late Silurian, perhaps related to orogenesis in Newfoundland and the Maritimes, expanded the clastic wedge somewhat. Before long, however, carbonate deposition once again dominated most of the north-central basin for the remainder of the Silurian and into the Early Devonian. The Early-to-Middle Devonian Acadian orogeny began introducing siliciclastic material into the eastern part of the Appalachian basin, thereby ending the largely paralic environment that persisted from the Late Silurian. A number of deltas formed around local sediment-input centers during the Middle Devonian. Continued uplift and/or orogenesis must have continued into the Late Devonian because a vast amount of terrigenous sediment was introduced into the Appalachian basin to form the vast Upper Devonian Catskill delta. Although the principal tectonic activity appears to have centered in New England, the large volume of sediment input suggests that orogenesis may have extended southward to the north-central Appalachians. However, direct evidence of actual Acadian deformation and metamorphism is lacking at this latitude. The north-central Appalachian basin underwent a significant change during the Carboniferous. Prior to this time, the shoreline shifted laterally through transgressions and regressions largely as a function of sediment input and regional subsidence. In the Carboniferous, vertical movements in the basin became more important. During the Early Carboniferous, much of the Mauch Chunk delta was eroded in the central and western parts of the basin. At the end of the Early Carboniferous, an unconformity truncated progressively older rocks to the north toward New York. New sediment transport patterns and depositional environments within the basin during the Late Carboniferous probably reflect significant topographic and tectonic changes, not only in the hinterland, but in the basin itself, perhaps in conjunction with climatic changes. Extensive interfluvial swamps on a lower delta plain accumulated thick organic deposits which would become coal. This delta plain graded southwestward into tidal and marine environments. The Alleghany orogeny in the Early Permian interrupted deposition in much of the north-central Appalachian basin and profoundly altered its structure.

American Journal of Science↗

USGS1998

Chemistry, isotopic composition, and origin of a methane-hydrogen sulfide hydrate at the Cascadia subduction zone

Although the presence of extensive gas hydrate on the Cascadia margin, offshore from the western U.S. and Canada, has been inferred from marine seismic records and pore water chemistry, solid gas hydrate has only been found at one location. At Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 892, offshore from central Oregon, gas hydrate was recovered close to the sediment-water interface at 2–19 m below the seafloor (mbsf) at 670 m water depth. The gas hydrate occurs as elongated platy crystals or crystal aggregates, mostly disseminated irregularly, with higher concentrations occurring in discrete zones, thin layers, and/or veinlets parallel or oblique to the bedding. A 2- to 3-cm thick massive gas hydrate layer, parallel to bedding, was recovered at ∼ 17 mbsf. Gas from a sample of this layer was composed of both CH 4 and H 2 S. This sample is the first mixed-gas hydrate of CH 4 H 2 S documented in ODP; it also contains ethane and minor amounts of CO 2 . Measured temperatures of the recovered core ranged from 2 to −1.8°C and are 6 to 8 degrees lower than in-situ temperatures. These temperature anomalies were caused by the partial dissociation of the CH 4 H 2 S hydrate during recovery without a pressure core sampler.During this dissociation, toxic levels of H 2 S (δ 34 S, +27.4‰) were released. The δ 13 C values of the CH 4 in the gas hydrate, −64.5 to −67.5‰ (PDB) , together with δD values of −197 to −199‰ (SMOW) indicate a primarily microbial source for the CH 4 . The δ 18 O value of the hydrate H 2 O is +2.9‰ (SMOW) , comparable with the experimental fractionation factor for sea-ice. The unusual composition (CH 4 H 2 S) and depth distribution (2–19 mbsf) of this gas hydrate indicate mixing between a methane-rich fluid with a pore fluid enriched in sulfide; at this site the former is advecting along an inclined fault into the active sulfate reduction zone. The facts that the CH 4 H 2 S hydrate is primarily confined to the present day active sulfate reduction zone (2–19 mbsf), and that from here down to the BSR depth (19–68 mbsf) the gas hydrate inferred to exist is a ≥99% CH 4 hydrate, suggest that the mixing of CH 4 and H 2 S is a geologically young process. Because the existence of a mixed CH 4 H 2 S hydrate is indicative of moderate to intense advection of a methane-rich fluid into a near surface active sulfate reduction zone, tectonically active (faulted) margins with organic-rich sediments and moderate to high sedimentation rates are the most likely regions of occurrence. The extension of such a mixed hydrate below the sulfate reduction zone should reflect the time-span of methane advection into the sulfate reduction zone.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS1993

Volcanic eruption of the mid-ocean ridge along the East Pacific Rise crest at 9°45-52'N: direct submersible observations of seafloor phenomena associated with an eruption event in April, 1991

In April, 1991, we witnessed from the submersible Alvin a suite of previously undocumented seafloor phenomena accompanying an in-progress eruption of the mid-ocean ridge on the East Pacific Rise crest at 9°45′N–52′N. The volume of the eruption could not be precisely determined, although comparison of pre- and post-eruption SeaBeam bathymetry indicate that any changes in ridge crest morphology resulting from the eruption were < 10 m high. Effects of the eruption included: (1) increased abundance and redistribution of hydrothermal vents, disappearance of numerous vent communities, and changes in characteristics of vent fauna and mineral deposits within the eruption area since December, 1989; (2) murkiness of bottom waters up to tens of meters above the seafloor due to high densities of suspended mineral and biogenic particulates; (3) destruction of a vent community by lava flows, mass wasting, and possible hydrovolcanic explosion at a site known as ‘Tubeworm Barbecue’ in the axial summit caldera (ASC) at 9°50.6′N; (4) near-critical temperatures of hydrothermal vent fluids, ranging up to 403°C; (5) temporal variations over a 2 week interval in both temperatures and chemical/isotopic compositions of hydrothermal fluids; (6) unusual compositions of end-member vent fluids, with pH values ranging to a record low of 2.5, salinities ranging as low as 0.3 wt% NaCl (one-twelfth that of seawater), and dissolved gases reaching high concentrations (> 65 mmol/l for both CO 2 and H 2 S); (7) venting at temperatures above 380°C of visually detectable white vapor that transformed to plumes of gray smoke a few centimeters above vent orifices; (8) disorganized venting of both high-temperature fluids (black and gray smoke) and large volumes of cooler, diffuse hydrothermal fluids directly from the basaltic seafloor, rather than from hydrothermal mineral constructions; (9) rapid and extensive growth of flocculent white bacterial mats (species unknown) on and under the seafloor in areas experiencing widespread venting of diffuse hydrothermal fluid; and (10) subseafloor downslope migration of magma normal to the ridge axis in a network of small-scale (1–5 m diameter) lava tubes and channels to distances at least 100–200 m outside the ASC. We suggest that, in April, 1991, intrusion of dikes in the eruption area to < 200 m beneath the ASC floor resulted in phase separation of fluids near the tops of the dikes and a large flux of vapor-rich hydrothermal fluids through the overlying rubbly, cavernous lavas. Low salinities and gas-rich compositions of hydrothermal fluids sampled in the eruption area are appropriate for a vapor phase in a seawater system undergoing subcritical liquid-vapor phase separation (boiling) and phase segregation. Hydrothermal fluids streamed directly from fissures and pits that may have been loci of lava drainback and/or hydrovolcanic explosions. These fissures and pits were lined with white mats of a unique fast-growing bacteria that was the only life associated with the brand-new vents. The prolific bacteria, which covered thousands of square meters on the ridge crest and were also abundant in subseafloor voids, may thrive on high levels of gases in the vapor-rich hydrothermal fluids initially escaping the hydrothermal system. White bacterial particulates swept from the seafloor by hydrothermal vents swirled in an unprecedented biogenic ‘blizzard’ up to 50 m above the bottom. The bacterial proliferation of April, 1991 is likely to be a transient bloom that will be checked quickly either by decline of dissolved gas concentrations in the fluids as rapid heat loss brings about cessation of boiling, and/or by grazing as other organisms are re-established in the biologically devastated area.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS1993

1993 Annual Report: San Francisco estuary regional monitoring program for trace substances

This first annual report of the San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program contains the results of monitoring measurements made in 1993. Measurements of conventional water quality parameters and trace contaminant concentrations were made at 16 stations throughout the Estuary three times during the year: the wet period (March), during declining Delta outflow (May), and during the dry period (September). Water toxicity tests were conducted at 8 of those stations. Measurements of sediment quality and contaminant concentrations were made at the same 16 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Sediment toxicity was measured at 8 of those stations. Transplanted, bagged bivalve bioaccumulation and condition was measured at 11 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Water Monitoring. Total or near-total (dissolved + particulate, see text) arsenic, cadmium, selenium, and dissolved (0.45 µm filtered) arsenic, cadmium, copper, nickel, silver, and zinc in water were highest in the South Bay. In general, dissolved metals in water were usually lowest in the Central Bay due to ocean influences. Near-total nickel and total mercury in water were highest in the northern estuary (San Pablo and Suisun Bays). Dissolved chromium and lead were highest at the Sacramento and San Joaquin River confluence stations. Six of the ten dissolved trace metals were highest in March during high runoff. Dissolved and total arsenic, selenium, and near-total cadmium were highest in September. Concentrations of trace organic contaminants are reported for the March sampling period. Total PAHs and PCBs were highest in the South Bay, but PCBs were also high in the Napa River. Dissolved PAHs were highest in the Central Bay, and dissolved PCBs were highest in the Napa River. Total and dissolved pesticides were highest in the Sacramento River and in the Extreme South Bay. Concentrations of trace elements in water (except selenium) were usually closely related with other environmental parameters. Total or near-total metals concentrations in water were most often associated with the amount of particulate material (TSS) in the water. Dissolved concentrations were usually associated with salinity or dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content. Dissolved PAHs were well correlated with TSS, but dissolved and total trace organic contaminants were poorly correlated with other water parameters. Based on deviations from conservative mixing of fresh and salt water, three different patterns of possible sources of metals were identified in 1993. For dissolved chromium and lead, rivers and local runoff appeared to be important sources. For dissolved arsenic, cadmium, copper, and nickel year-round inputs from the South Bay appeared to be important sources. Dissolved mercury, selenium, and zinc were associated with local runoff in the South Bay during the wet period. Dissolved silver did not fit any of these patterns. Although most contaminant concentrations were below water quality objectives, several trace contaminants were above the objectives at some stations. Comparisons to water quality objectives are used as a guide for evaluation of contaminant concentrations, but there are some differences in the way the RMP data are measured and that prescribed for regulatory purposes (see text). Concentrations of 5 metals in water were above EPA or Regional Basin Plan water quality objectives at six stations (see Table 30). Most of these elevated levels occurred at the northern estuary stations. Total PCB concentrations were above EPA human health objectives at all RMP stations. The pesticides chlordane, dieldrin, and DDTs were above the EPA objectives at several RMP stations, particularly at the northern-most, and river confluence stations. Although some of the contaminant concentrations were above water quality objectives, water toxicity tests (96 hour algal growth and 48 hour bivalve larval development tests) did not indicate toxicity (sometimes inconclusive) associated with the water samples collected at any of the RMP stations in 1993. Exposure to Bay San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program Regional Monitoring Program 1993 Report ii water actually enhanced algal growth at most stations. In addition to the Estuary-wide sampling, the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers were sampled upstream from their confluence. Stations in each river were sampled six times over a 6 week period of high flows. In the Sacramento River, seven of the ten dissolved metals measured had concentrations lower than those measured at the river confluence stations. Some metals concentrations in the San Joaquin River were higher, and some were lower than concentrations from the river confluence station. Metals concentrations in the Sacramento River were poorly related to river flow because the station at Rio Vista is under considerable tidal influence. In the San Joaquin River, flows were inversely related to 7 of 10 total metals concentrations. Sediment Monitoring. Concentrations of silver, mercury, and lead in sediment were highest in the South Bay. However, concentrations of most trace metals in sediments were highest in the northern estuary at stations with the finest (silt, clay) sediments. The northern estuary stations with the coarsest (sand, shell) sediments generally had the lowest metals concentrations. There were differences in concentrations of cadmium, lead, and selenium in sediments between the sampling periods, but no consistent trend as to which sampling period had higher values. In September, PAHs and PCBs in sediments were highest in the Central Bay, but pesticides in sediments were highest in the northern estuary and Extreme South Bay. NOAA’s Median Effects Ranges (ERM) for sediments were used as a guide for evaluation of sediment contaminant concentrations. Nickel was the only trace contaminant in sediment above the ERM guidelines, and it was high at all RMP stations. These high levels are probably due to natural, geologic sources. Although sediment contaminant concentrations were below ERMs, sediment toxicity tests (10 day amphipod mortality, and 48 hour bivalve larval development in elutriates) indicated toxicity at all stations tested. Sediment factors that could have caused the toxicity were not investigated. Bivalve Bioaccumulation. Mussels, oysters, and freshwater clams were transplanted to the RMP stations to evaluate bioaccumulation of trace substances. Trace metals were bioaccumulated at nearly all RMP stations. However, arsenic, lead, and mercury did not appear to bioaccumulate. There was generally more bioaccumulation during the dry season than during the wet season. In September, PAHs, PCBs, and pesticides accumulated in all samples. Bioaccumulation of PAHs and pesticides was generally highest at the river confluence stations, and the Napa River. PCBs accumulated most at Redwood Creek. There were substantial differences in the degree of bioaccumulation among the species. Oysters appeared to accumulate higher concentrations of trace metals than the other species, especially copper, which may be a natural phenomenon. There are no established tissue contaminant standards for trace metal and organic contaminants. Therefore, comparisons to Median International Standards (MIS) for human consumption, or U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) action levels for trace organics are used to evaluate the bioaccumulation results. Concentrations of selenium were higher than MIS guidelines at all stations during the wet season. Other trace metal concentrations were higher than MIS guidelines at various stations during one or the other sampling period. However, none of the bivalves contained concentrations above the USFDA or National Academy of Sciences (NAS) guidelines for trace organic contaminants. The transplanted bivalves survived well at all stations except in the Napa River where less than 35% survived during both sampling seasons. Measures of bivalve condition (dry weight, shell volume) indicated that bivalves deployed in the Central Bay grew significantly, but those at most other stations actually lost weight. Whether these differences were due to natural causes such as salinity or food supply, or to contamination, was not determined. Pilot Studies. Two pilot monitoring studies were conducted in 1993. A pilot study of Estuary hydrography and phytoplankton was conducted by scientists from the U.S. Summary Geological Survey in Menlo Park and U.C. Davis. Water column profiles at up to 37 stations were monitored along a transect of the Estuary run monthly between the South Bay and the Delta. The primary objective of this study was to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a) characteristics of Estuary water that may influence other chemical and biological reactions. A second objective was to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. The data collected in 1993 showed the extent and duration of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the South Bay, other localized blooms in the northern estuary, the stratification and mixing associated with the entrapment zone in the northern estuary, and mixing in the Estuary resulting from the high rainfall in 1993. Knowledge of the duration and extent of these natural features of the Estuary provide context for interpretation of the RMP contaminant data collected only 3 times per year. Another pilot study of suspended sediment transport processes was conducted by the USGS in Sacramento. This study used continuous recording sensors at Point San Pablo and the Bay Bridge to measure the amount of suspended sediment in the water at mid-depth and near the bottom, as well as tide height. The objectives of this study were to estimate which factors determine suspended solids concentrations in the Central Bay and to collect time series of suspended solids that are appropriate for continuous monitoring of suspended solids and for calibration and validation of numerical models. The investigators determined that spring tides accounted for most of the variation in suspended solids concentrations at the stations monitored, not runoff from the Sacramento or San Joaquin Rivers, or semidiurnal and diurnal tides. Comparisons were also made between measurements made by the continuous recordings and the RMP samples collected during the regular monitoring cruises. The different ways of measuring TSS were generally comparable, however only 3 measurements per year as made by the RMP could not provide the information of TSS variation actually occurring in the Estuary. This information is important because as shown by the RMP data, total contaminant concentrations in Estuary water is largely dependent on the TSS in the water. This implies that the RMP measurements alone cannot determine accurately the range of contaminant concentrations without better characterizing the dynamics of TSS. The RMP Pilot Studies are important to the developing RMP because they will help put RMP measurements into the perspective of Estuary processes and mechanisms at other time scales. The studies can relate those processes to the RMP measurements and will facilitate revision of sampling design and interpretation. Summaries of other monitoring activities pertinent to regional monitoring are also included in the Report: a description of the Regional Board’s Bay Protection Studies, the Sacramento Coordinated Monitoring Program, and a wetlands monitoring plan are included.

California↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2020

The Missoula and Bonneville floods—A review of ice-age megafloods in the Columbia River basin

The Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington State, USA, brought megafloods to the scientific forefront. A 30,000-km2 landscape of coulees and cataracts carved into the region’s loess-covered basalt attests to overwhelming volumes of energetic water. The scarred landscape, garnished by huge boulder bars and far-travelled ice-rafted erratics, spurred J Harlen Bretz’s vigorously disputed flood hypothesis in the 1920s. First known as the Spokane flood, it was rebranded the Missoula flood once understood that the water came from glacial Lake Missoula, formed when the Purcell Trench lobe of the last-glacial Cordilleran ice sheet dammed the Clark Fork valley in northwestern Idaho with ice a kilometer thick. Bretz’s flood evidence in the once-remote Channeled Scabland, widely seen and elaborated by the 1950s, eventually swayed consensus for cataclysmic flooding. Missoula flood questions then turned to some that continue today: how many? when? how big? what routes? what processes? The Missoula floods passed through eastern Washington by a multitude of valleys, coulees and scabland tracts, some contemporaneously, some sequentially. Which routings and their timing depended on the positions of various lobes of the multi-pronged Cordilleran ice sheet and the erosional development of the channels themselves. The first floods mostly followed the big bend of Columbia valley looping through north-central Washington. But the south-advancing Okanogan ice lobe soon blocked that path, forming long-lasting glacial Lake Columbia in the impounded Columbia valley. Missoula floods into this lake were diverted south out of the Columbia valley and into eastern Washington coulees and scabland tracts. At least four floods entered Moses Coulee, but then as the Okanogan lobe advanced over and blocked the head of that coulee, more eastern paths took the water, including Grand Coulee and the Telford-Crab-Creek and Cheney-Palouse scabland tracts. Flood routing also depended on the erosion of the coulees. At some point, headward erosion of upper Grand Coulee lowered the divide saddle between the west-running Columbia valley and the deep and wide Grand Coulee heading southwest. Still uncertain is when this happened and the consequences with respect to the stage and extent of glacial Lake Columbia and to flood access to the other, higher, flood routes. Downstream, all flood routes converged onto Pasco Basin, flowed through Wallula Gap and the Columbia River Gorge into the Pacific Ocean, following submarine canyons and depositing sediment layers on abyssal plains. Stratigraphic studies indicate dozens—likely more than a hundred—separate Missoula floods during the last glacial period. Over the length of the flood route, backwater areas and depositional basins preserve multiple flood beds, many of which are separated by signs of time, including volcanic ash layers and soil development in subaerial environments; and varve-like beds and pelagic mud layers in lacustrine and marine settings. Evidence also comes from the glacial Lake Missoula basin, where stratigraphy indicates dozens of filling and emptying cycles. Varve counts in conjunction of radiocarbon dating and paleomagnetic secular variation show the repeated filling-and-release cycles of glacial Lake Missoula had intervals possibly as long as 100 years early in the lake’s history but diminished to just one or two years for the last few floods. This behavior accords with jökulhlaup-style floods released by subglacial drainage from a self-dumping ice-dammed lake. But not yet clear is whether such a mechanism applies to all the floods or if some emptied more cataclysmically as hypothesized by some. Radiocarbon dating of sparse organic materials remains key to defining flood chronology but has been lately bolstered by analyses of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides and optically stimulated luminescence. Varve counts and paleomagnetic secular variation studies help to define durations and intervals represented by sequences of flood beds. The ~16 ka Mount St. Helens Set S tephra is commonly interbedded within flood deposits, enabling correlation of deposits among sites. Tephra from the 13.7–13.4 ka eruption of Glacier Peak overlies all glacial Lake Missoula and Missoula flood deposits, defining an end time. Overall conclusions are that glacial Lake Missoula was extant and producing floods for at least 3–4 ky during 20–14 ka. At least ~75 floods preceded Mount St Helens Set S, followed by 30 or more after the tephra fall. Most floods entered glacial Lake Columbia, impounded by the Okanogan lobe, for 2–5 ky between about 18.5 and 15 ka. Glacial Lake Columbia outlived Lake Missoula by >200–400 yr but may have been born later since at least one flood came down the Columbia valley before the Okanogan ice lobe blocked the Columbia valley at 18.5–18 ka. The maximum extent of the Okanogan and Purcell Trench lobes, many Missoula floods, substantial erosion of upper Grand Coulee, and the widespread tephra falls from Mount St. Helens eruptions all happened about 17–15 ka. People, in the area since 16.6–15.3 ka, almost certainly witnessed the last of the Missoula floods and later large floods from other ice-dammed lakes in the Columbia River basin. Quantitative flow analyses give peak discharge estimates and support understanding of erosional and depositional processes. The first flow assessments were simple cross-section calculations but recent assessments employ two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. The general finding is that emplacement of the maximum stage evidence requires about 20 million m3/s near the Lake Missoula outlet and about 5–15 million m3/s through Wallula Gap and downstream in the Columbia River Gorge. These hydraulic analyses raise still-unresolved questions regarding canyon erosion and possible additional water sources. The large Pleistocene Bonneville flood entered the Columbia River system from the southeast from pluvial Lake Bonneville, the Pleistocene predecessor to Great Salt Lake in the eastern Great Basin. During the last glacial, the lake basin filled, covering >50,000 km2 with 10,400 km3 of water before reaching its maximum possible stage governed by Red Rock Pass, the lowest divide separating the basin from the Snake River basin to the north. The overtopping lake rapidly incised 108–125 m into the Red Rock Pass outlet, spilling half of its total lake volume. G.K. Gilbert described the essential sequence in the 1870s, but the flood was mostly forgotten until the late 1950s when Harold Malde linked the spectacular scabland topography and bouldery “melon gravel” on the Snake River Plain to the Lake Bonneville overflow. The Bonneville flood appears to have been a singular event at about 18 ka. No evidence of multiple or pre-last-glacial spillovers has yet been found. Its total volume was about twice that of a maximum Lake Missoula flood yet its peak discharge was ~1 million m3/s, less than a tenth of the largest Missoula floods. Its comparatively simple flow path and much steadier flow make the Bonneville flood ideal for new studies of erosional and depositional processes. At least two floods seem to have passed down the Columbia valley after the last of the Missoula floods, including a large flood about ~14 ka likely from cataclysmic demise of the thinning Okanogan ice lobe dam impounding glacial Lake Columbia. Floods from earlier glacial ages left scant yet clear evidence in the Channeled Scabland and Columbia valley. But their source, timing, and magnitudes are little understood. Some deposits are paleomagnetically reversed, thus older than ~800 ka. Last-glacial floods and perhaps older ones affected the Snake River Plain, some likely sourced in lakes dammed by alpine glaciers in central Idaho.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗