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USGS2019

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin regulated streamflow upstream from Minot, North Dakota

The Souris River Basin is a 24,000 square-mile basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada, and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Above-average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June of 2011, led to record flooding that caused extensive damage to Minot, North Dakota, and numerous smaller communities in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and North Dakota. As a result, the International Souris River Board created the Souris River Flood Task Force to evaluate potential reservoir operation changes and flood control measures to manage future floods and droughts. Part of this evaluation involved identifying a need for a stochastic streamflow model to estimate the likelihood of future flooding or drought. A stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow simulation model described in a previous report was built upon in this report to include the effects of regulation of four reservoirs (Rafferty, Alameda, and Boundary Reservoirs and Lake Darling) and their operation guidelines. First, a regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model was developed and calibrated from when all four reservoirs were in operation until the end of the reconstructed natural streamflow dataset provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1992–2011). The regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model then was combined with the stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow model to provide a stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model for the Souris River Basin upstream from Minot, North Dakota. The stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model was used to estimate regulated flood frequency curves, which are useful for feasibility and design of critical structures such as levees or bridges. Three potential future climatic conditions were considered in this analysis: condition A (wet equilibrium), representing wet (similar to 1970–2017) climatic conditions; condition B (transition), representing transition from wet to dry (similar to 1912–69) climatic conditions; and condition C (dry equilibrium), representing dry climatic conditions. Comparison of the estimated flood frequency curves for regulated flow among the three climatic conditions indicated large differences in flood magnitudes for the more extreme (1-percent or less) annual exceedance probabilities. The estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 29,300 cubic feet per second for condition A (wet equilibrium), compared to 14,800 cubic feet per second for condition C (dry equilibrium). For comparison, the recorded peak streamflow for 2011 for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 26,900 cubic feet per second. Although it is not possible to predict how long the current (1970–2017) wet climatic conditions may persist, flood risk for at least the next 25 years, or until about 2040, may be represented best by climatic condition A.

North Dakota↗

USGS2005

Hydrogeology of the Valley-Fill Aquifer in the Onondaga Trough, Onondaga County, New York

Continuing efforts to improve water quality in Onondaga Lake, New York and its tributaries require an understanding of how the natural, brine-filled aquifer in the Onondaga Trough (valley) affects the freshwater in Onondaga Lake. The city of Syracuse, locally known as "The Salt City," was built around the salt springs, which issued from a valley-fill aquifer that contains a highly concentrated brine (up to six times as salty as sea water), but little is known about the source of the brine, its movement within the glacial sediments that partly fill the Onondaga Trough, and the interaction of the aquifer and the lake. This report summarizes initial data-collection and analysis efforts in the 25-mile long Onondaga Trough that extends from near Tully, N.Y., to the outlet of Onondaga Lake and presents results of some initial chemical and geographic analyses that will lead to the development of a mathematical ground-water-flow model of the valley-fill aquifer.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Volcanic Aquifers of Hawai‘i—Construction and calibration of numerical models for assessing groundwater availability on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui

Steady-state numerical groundwater-flow models were constructed for the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui to enable quantification of the hydrologic consequences of withdrawals and other stresses that can place limits on groundwater availability. The volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i supply nearly all drinking water for the islands’ residents, freshwater for diverse industries, and natural discharge to springs, streams, and nearshore areas that support ecosystems, cultural practices, aesthetics, and recreation. Increases in groundwater withdrawal and changes in climate can cause water-table depression, saltwater rise, and reduction of natural groundwater discharge—all of which can limit fresh groundwater availability. The numerical models described in this report are designed to quantify these consequences. Separate models were created for each island using MODFLOW-2005 with the Seawater Intrusion package, which allows simulation of freshwater and saltwater in ocean-island aquifers. Calibration resulted in models that generally replicate observed water-level, stream base-flow, and spring-flow data, and simulate groundwater-flow directions and fresh groundwater thicknesses that are consistent with conceptual models. The calibrated models use hydraulic properties that are consistent with the ranges reported in previous studies. The models show that the relative distribution of fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean, streams, and springs and withdrawals for human use differ substantially among the three islands studied here. These differences indicate that consequences that limit the availability of fresh groundwater for human use are likely to differ among the three islands.

Hawaii↗

USGS2001

A data management life-cycle

Documented, reliable, and accessible data and information are essential building blocks supporting scientific research and applications that enhance society's knowledge base (fig. 1). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a leading provider of science data, information, and knowledge, is uniquely positioned to integrate science and natural resource information to address societal needs. The USGS Central Energy Resources Team (USGS-CERT) provides critical information and knowledge on the quantity, quality, and distribution of the Nation's and the world's oil, gas, and coal resources. By using a life-cycle model, the USGS-CERT Data Management Project is developing an integrated data management system to (1) promote access to energy data and information, (2) increase data documentation, and (3) streamline product delivery to the public, scientists, and decision makers. The project incorporates web-based technology, data cataloging systems, data processing routines, and metadata documentation tools to improve data access, enhance data consistency, and increase office efficiency

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2026

Assessing natural recharge in Indian Wells Valley, California: A Basin Characterization Model case study

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge from the surrounding Sierra Nevada is the main source of natural recharge to the valley. Increased urbanization, agricultural development, and groundwater pumping during recent decades put IWV in a state of critical overdraft. The U.S. Geological Survey Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8) was used to evaluate historical and future climate and hydrologic conditions in IWV. The BCMv8 estimated natural recharge in IWV at 10.7 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) per year for the period from 1981 to 2010. Future patterns of water balance variables using three future climate scenarios, hot-wet, hot-dry, and warm-moderately wet, were calculated for mid-century (2040–69) and end-of-century (2070–99) periods. Results for both wet models projected an increase in recharge in both periods, whereas the hot-dry model projected a decrease in recharge in both periods. All models reported a large increase in seasonal variability in recharge, indicating more future availability and frequent occurrences of drought years. All climate scenarios projected an increase in climatic water deficit in both periods. These increases in irrigation demand and variability of water supply highlight the importance of strategic management planning for the sustainability of water resources in IWV.

California↗

USGS2006

Bathymetric contour maps of lakes surveyed in Iowa in 2004

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted bathymetric surveys on six lakes in Iowa during 2004 (Lake Darling, Littlefield Lake, Lake Minnewashta, Nine Eagles Lake, Prairie Rose Lake, and Upper Gar Lake). The surveys were conducted to provide the Iowa Department of Natural Resources with information for the development of total maximum daily load limits, particularly for estimating sediment load and deposition rates. The bathymetric surveys can provide a baseline for future work on sediment loads and deposition rates for these lakes. Two of the lakes surveyed in 2004, Lake Minnewashta and Upper Gar Lake, are natural lakes. The other four lakes are manmade lakes with fixed spillways. Bathymetric data were collected using a boat-mounted, differential global positioning system, echo depth-sounding equipment, and computer software. Data were processed with commercial hydrographic software and exported into a geographic information system for mapping and calculating area and volume. Lake volume estimates ranged from 83,924,000 cubic feet (1,930 acre-feet) at Lake Darling to 5,967,000 cubic feet (140 acre-feet) at Upper Gar Lake. Surface area estimates ranged from 10,660,000 square feet (240 acres) at Lake Darling to 1,557,000 square feet (36 acres) at Upper Gar Lake.

Iowa↗

USGS2006

Methane gas concentration in soils and ground water, Carbon and Emery Counties, Utah, 1995-2003

The release of methane gas from coal beds creates the potential for it to move into near-surface environments through natural and human-made pathways. To help ensure the safety of communities and determine the potential effects of development of coal-bed resources, methane gas concentrations in soils and ground water in Carbon and Emery Counties, Utah, were monitored from 1995 to 2003. A total of 420 samples were collected, which contained an average methane concentration of 2,740 parts per million by volume (ppmv) and a median concentration of less than 10 ppmv. On the basis of spatial and temporal methane concentration data collected during the monitoring period, there does not appear to be an obvious, widespread, or consistent migration of methane gas to the near-surface environment.

Utah↗

USGS2008

Hydrogeology, Water Chemistry, and Factors Affecting the Transport of Contaminants in the Zone of Contribution of a Public-Supply Well in Modesto, Eastern San Joaquin Valley, California

Ground-water chemistry in the zone of contribution of a public-supply well in Modesto, California, was studied by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program's topical team for Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants (TANC) to supply wells. Twenty-three monitoring wells were installed in Modesto to record baseline hydraulic information and to collect water-quality samples. The monitoring wells were divided into four categories that represent the chemistry of different depths and volumes of the aquifer: (1) water-table wells were screened between 8.5 and 11.7 m (meter) (28 and 38.5 ft [foot]) below land surface (bls) and were within 5 m (16 ft) of the water table; (2) shallow wells were screened between 29 and 35 m (95 and 115 ft) bls; (3) intermediate wells were screened between 50.6 and 65.5 m (166 and 215 ft) bls; and (4) deep wells are screened between 100 to 106 m (328 and 348 ft) bls. Inorganic, organic, isotope, and age-dating tracers were used to characterize the geochemical conditions in the aquifer and understand the mechanisms of mobilization and movement of selected constituents from source areas to a public-supply well. The ground-water system within the study area has been significantly altered by human activities. Water levels in monitoring wells indicated that horizontal movement of ground water was generally from the agricultural areas in the northeast towards a regional water-level depression within the city in the southwest. However, intensive pumping and irrigation recharge in the study area has caused large quantities of ground water to move vertically downward within the regional and local flow systems. Analysis of age tracers indicated that ground-water age varied from recent recharge at the water table to more than 1,000 years in the deep part of the aquifer. The mean age of shallow ground water was determined to be between 30 and 40 years. Intermediate ground water was determined to be a mixture of modern (Post-1950) and old (Pre-1950) ground water. As a result, concentrations of age tracers were detectable but diluted by older ground water. Deep ground water generally represented water that was recharged under natural conditions and therefore had much older ages. Ground water reaching the public-supply well was a mixture of older intermediate and deep ground water and young shallow ground water that has been anthropogenically-influenced to a greater extent than intermediate ground water. Uranium and nitrate pose the most significant threat to the quality of water discharged from the public-supply well. Although pesticides and VOCs were present in ground water from the public-supply well and monitoring wells, currently concentrations of these contaminants are generally less than one-hundredth the concentration of drinking water standards. In contrast, both uranium and nitrate were above half the concentration of drinking water standards for public-supply well samples, and were above drinking water standards for several water-table and shallow monitoring wells. Shallow ground water contributes roughly 20 percent of the total flow to the public-supply well and was the entry point of most contaminants reaching the public-supply well. Naturally-occurring uranium, which is commonly adsorbed to aquifer sediments, was mobilized by oxygen-rich, high-alkalinity water, causing concentrations in some monitoring wells to be above the drinking-water standard of 30 ug/L (microgram per liter). Adsorption experiments, sediment extractions, and uranium isotopes indicated uranium in water-table and shallow ground water was leached from aquifer sediments. Uranium is strongly correlated to bicarbonate concentrations (as measured by alkalinity) in ground water. Bicarbonate can effectively limit uranium adsorption to sediments. As a result, continued downward movement of high-alkalinity, oxygen-rich ground water will likely lead to larger portions of the aquifer having

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Field-trip guide to Mount St. Helens, Washington - An overview of the eruptive history and petrology, tephra deposits, 1980 pyroclastic density current deposits, and the crater

This field trip will provide an introduction to several fascinating features of Mount St. Helens. The trip begins with a rigorous hike of about 15 km from the Johnston Ridge Observatory (9 km north-northeast of the crater vent), across the 1980 Pumice Plain, to Windy Ridge (3.6 km northeast of the crater vent) to examine features that document the dynamics and progressive emplacement of pyroclastic flows. The next day, we examine classic tephra outcrops of the past 3,900 years and observe changes in thickness and character of these deposits as we traverse their respective lobes. We examine clasts in the deposits and discuss how the petrology and geochemistry of Mount St. Helens deposits reveal the evolution of the magmatic system through time. We also investigate the stratigraphy of the 1980 blast deposit and review the chronology of this iconic eruption as we travel through the remains of the blown-down forest. The third day is another rigorous hike, about 13 km round trip, climbing from the base of Windy Ridge (elevation 1,240 m) to the front of the Crater Glacier (elevation 1,700 m). En route we examine basaltic andesite and basalt lava flows emplaced between 1,800 and 1,700 years before present, a heterolithologic flow deposit produced as the 1980 blast and debris avalanche interacted, debris-avalanche hummocks that are stranded on the north flank and in the crater mouth, and shattered dacite lava domes that were emplaced between 3,900 and 2,600 years before present. These domes underlie the northern part of the volcano. In addition, within the crater we traverse well-preserved pyroclastic-flow deposits that were emplaced on the crater floor during the summer of 1980, and a beautiful natural section through the 1980 deposits in the upper canyon of the Loowit River. Before plunging into the field-trip log, we provide an overview of Mount St. Helens geology, geochemistry, petrology, and volcanology as background. The volcano has been referred to as a “master teacher.” The 1980 eruption and studies both before and after 1980 played a major role in the establishment of the modern U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program and our understanding of flank collapses, debris avalanches, cryptodomes, blasts, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars, as well as the dynamics of magma ascent and eruption.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers

What is a Climate Science Center? On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs), which will integrate DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support adaptation and mitigation efforts on both public and private lands, across the United States and internationally.The Southeast CSC, hosted by NC State University (NCSU), will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and Federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interest and expertise in climate science. The primary partner for the Southeast CSC will be the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) in the Southeast, including the Appalachian, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, Gulf Coast Prairie, Peninsular Florida, and the South Atlantic. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities, addressing priority partner needs, minimizing redundancies in science, sharing scientific findings, and expanding understanding of climate change impacts in the Southeast.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2009

NBII-SAIN Data Management Toolkit

The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Biological Informatics Program (2005-2009) recognizes the need for effective data management: Though the Federal government invests more than $600 million per year in biological data collection, it is difficult to address these issues because of limited accessibility and lack of standards for data and information...variable quality, sources, methods, and formats (for example observations in the field, museum specimens, and satellite images) present additional challenges. This is further complicated by the fast-moving target of emerging and changing technologies such as GPS and GIS. Even though these technologies offer new solutions, they also create new informatics challenges (Ruggiero and others, 2005). The USGS National Biological Information Infrastructure program, hereafter referred to as NBII, is charged with the mission to improve the way data and information are gathered, documented, stored, and accessed. The central objective of this project is a direct reflection of the purpose of NBII as described by John Mosesso, Program Manager of the U.S. Geological Survey-Biological Informatics Program-GAP Analysis: At the outset, the reason for bringing about NBII was that there were significant amounts of data and information scattered all over the U.S., not accessible, in incompatible formats, and that NBII was tasked with addressing this problem...NBII's focus is to pull data together that truly matters to someone or communities. Essentially, the core questions are: 1) what are the issues, 2) where is the data, and 3) how can we make it usable and accessible (John Mosesso, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun., 2006). Redundancy in data collection can be a major issue when multiple stakeholders are involved with a common effort. In 2001 the U.S. General Accounting Office (USGAO) estimated that about 50 percent of the Federal government's geospatial data at the time was redundant. In addition, approximately 80 percent of the cost of a spatial information system is associated with spatial data collection and management (U.S. General Accounting Office, 2003). These figures indicate that the resources (time, personnel, money) of many agencies and organizations could be used more efficiently and effectively. Dedicated and conscientious data management coordination and documentation is critical for reducing such redundancy. Substantial cost savings and increased efficiency are direct results of a pro-active data management approach. In addition, details of projects as well as data and information are frequently lost as a result of real-world occurrences such as the passing of time, job turnover, and equipment changes and failure. A standardized, well documented database allows resource managers to identify issues, analyze options, and ultimately make better decisions in the context of adaptive management (National Land and Water Resources Audit and the Australia New Zealand Land Information Council on behalf of the Australian National Government, 2003). Many environmentally focused, scientific, or natural resource management organizations collect and create both spatial and non-spatial data in some form. Data management appropriate for those data will be contingent upon the project goal(s) and objectives and thus will vary on a case-by-case basis. This project and the resulting Data Management Toolkit, hereafter referred to as the Toolkit, is therefore not intended to be comprehensive in terms of addressing all of the data management needs of all projects that contain biological, geospatial, and other types of data. The Toolkit emphasizes the idea of connecting a project's data and the related management needs to the defined project goals and objectives from the outset. In that context, the Toolkit presents and describes the fundamental components of sound data and information management that are common to projects involving biological, geospatial, and other related data

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Porphyry copper assessment of Southeast Asia and Melanesia: Chapter D in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of Southeast Asia and Melanesia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The region hosts world-class porphyry copper deposits and underexplored areas that are likely to contain undiscovered deposits. Examples of known porphyry copper deposits include Batu Hijau and Grasberg in Indonesia; Panguna, Frieda River, and Ok Tedi in Papua New Guinea; and Namosi in Fiji. This assessment covers the countries of Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Thailand, and parts of southeastern China, India, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Fiji. Twenty-two geographic areas were delineated as tracts that are permissive for porphyry copper deposits in Southeast Asia. Permissive tracts are grouped into four broadly defined geographic/geologic areas, as follows: (1) the Indochina Peninsula area, (2) Indonesian and Malaysian Islands, (3) New Guinea Island and Papuan New Guinea islands, and (4) Melanesia. Individual tracts range from less than 1,000 to more than 350,000 square kilometers in area. Permissive tracts are based on mapped and inferred subsurface (<1 kilometer depth) distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define magmatic arcs and magmatic belts that are likely to contain porphyry copper deposits. Most of these magmatic arcs are subduction-related, although some have porphyry-style deposits occurring in postcollisional and (or) poorly understood tectonic settings. Although maps at a variety of different scales were used in the compilation, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Global grade and tonnage models for porphyry copper deposits were evaluated. Most of the known deposits are best described as fitting the copper-gold (Cu-Au) subtype of porphyry copper deposit. For some permissive tracts, a general porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum (Cu-Au-Mo) model was used. Assessment participants estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different levels of confidence for most of the permissive tracts. These estimates were combined with grade and tonnage models using a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate undiscovered resources. Additional resources in extensions of deposits with identified resources were not evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, show mean amounts of metal and mineralized rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. This assessment estimated a mean of 89 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits for the assessed permissive tracts in Southeast Asia and Melanesia. About 288 million metric tons (Mt) of copper and 18,000 metric tons (t) of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver, could be associated with undiscovered deposits. This represents about four times the number of deposits with identified resources (23) already discovered in Southeast Asia; reliable reported identified resources for those 23 deposits total 84 Mt of copper and 6,000 t of gold. Eleven permissive tracts have no known porphyry copper deposits with reported resources. Three of those 11 tracts lacked sufficient information for a probabilistic assessment and are discussed in qualitative terms. On a regional basis, both the Indochina Peninsula area and the Indonesian-Malaysian Islands area are estimated to contain about 10 times as much in place copper in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits as has been identified to date. For the New Guinea Island areas, the ratio of undiscovered to identified copper resources is about 2. Some parts of the region have a long history of porphyry exploration cycles and mine development, interrupted at times by political and social unrest, environmental concerns, and natural disasters. Changes in mining laws within the region and the recent high price of gold on the world market have prompted renewed interest in porphyry copper deposits in Southeast Asia and Melanesia. However, predicted undiscovered deposits may not be found, and if found, may not be developed. This assessment includes an overview of the assessment results with summary tables. Detailed descriptions of each tract are included in appendixes, with estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits, and probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper, molybdenum, gold, and silver that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. A geographic information system (GIS) that accompanies the report includes tract boundaries and a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Hydrologic assessment and numerical simulation of groundwater flow, San Juan Mine, San Juan County, New Mexico, 2010–13

Coal combustion byproducts (CCBs), which are composed of fly ash, bottom ash, and flue gas desulfurization material, produced at the coal-fired San Juan Generating Station (SJGS), located in San Juan County, New Mexico, have been buried in former surface-mine pits at the San Juan Mine, also referred to as the San Juan Coal Mine, since operations began in the early 1970s. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Mining and Minerals Division of the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, describes results of a hydrogeologic assessment, including numerical groundwater modeling, to identify the timing of groundwater recovery and potential pathways for groundwater transport of metals that may be leached from stored CCBs and reach hydrologic receptors after operations cease. Data collected for the hydrologic assessment indicate that groundwater in at least one centrally located reclaimed surface-mining pit has already begun to recover. The U.S. Geological Survey numerical modeling package MODFLOW–NWT was used with MODPATH particle-tracking software to identify advective flow paths from CCB storage areas toward potential hydrologic receptors. Results indicate that groundwater at CCB storage areas will recover to the former steady state, or in some locations, groundwater may recover to a new steady state in 6,600 to 10,600 years at variable rates depending on the proximity to a residual cone-of-groundwater depression caused by mine dewatering and regional oil and gas pumping as well as on actual, rather than estimated, groundwater recharge and evapotranspirational losses. Advective particle-track modeling indicates that the number of particles and rates of advective transport will vary depending on hydraulic properties of the mine spoil, particularly hydraulic conductivity and porosity. Modeling results from the most conservative scenario indicate that particles can migrate from CCB repositories to either the Shumway Arroyo alluvium after 1,320 years and from there to the San Juan River alluvium after 1,520 years or from southernmost CCB repositories directly to the San Juan River alluvium after 2,400 years after the cessation of mining.

New Mexico↗

USGS2018

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

USGS2021

Coastal and marine science of the U.S. Geological Survey in St. Petersburg, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) in St. Petersburg, Florida, investigates processes that form and alter coastal and marine environments and the implications of these processes related to natural hazards, resource sustainability, and environmental change. The center is one of three facilities serving the mission of the USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, an initiative authorized by Congress in 1962 that serves as the primary Federal program for marine geology and physical science research and is responsible for the Nation’s entire coastal and marine landscape. The center’s staff conducts scientific research around the globe to describe and deepen understanding of the processes that influence coastal and marine ecosystems, such as sandy beaches and barrier islands, salt marshes and estuaries, coral reefs, and the open ocean from the continental shelf to the deep sea. The center includes a diverse workforce of scientists, technicians, administrators, analysts, and technology and information specialists. This team works collaboratively to conduct and share robust scientific research. This document provides a glimpse into the center’s work to better understand the processes shaping coastal and marine environments across the Nation.

Florida↗

USGS2004

Determining sources of water and contaminants to wells in a carbonate aquifer near Martinsburg, Blair County, Pennsylvania, by use of geochemical indicators, analysis of anthropogenic contaminants, and simulation of ground-water flow

Water supply for the Borough of Martinsburg, Pa., is from two well fields (Wineland and Hershberger) completed in carbonate-bedrock aquifers in the Morrison Cove Valley. Water supply is plentiful; however, waters with high concentrations of nitrate are a concern. This report describes the sources of water and contaminants to the supply wells. A review of previous investigations was used to establish the aquifer framework and estimate aquifer hydraulic properties. Aquifer framework and simulation of ground-water flow in a 25-square-mile area using the MODFLOW model helped to further constrain aquifer hydraulic properties and identify water-source areas in the zone of contribution of ground water to the well fields. Flow simulation identified potential contaminant-source areas. Data on contaminants and geochemical characteristics of ground water at the well fields were compared to the results of flow simulation. The Woodbury Anticline controls the aquifer framework near the well fields and four carbonate-bedrock formations contain the primary aquifers. Three carbonate-bedrock aquifers of Ordovician age overlie the Gatesburg aquifer of Cambrian age on the flanks of the anticline. Fracture, not conduit, permeability was determined to be the dominant water-bearing characteristic of the bedrock. The horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the Gatesburg aquifer is about 36 feet per day. The other carbonate aquifers (Nittany/Stonehenge, Bellefonte/Axemann, and Coburn through Loysburg aquifers) overlying and flanking the Gatesburg aquifer have horizontal hydraulic conductivities of about 1 foot per day. Regional directions of ground-water flow are toward the major streams with Clover Creek as the major discharge point for ground water in the east. Ground-water flow to the well fields is anisotropic with a 5:1 preferential horizontal direction along strike of the axial fold of the anticline. Thus, the zone of contribution of ground water to the well fields is elongate in a north-south direction along the anticline axis, with the majority of the flow to the well fields originating from the south. Human activity in the areal extent of the zone of contribution to the well fields was the source of contaminants. The areal extent of the zone of contribution included both urban areas in the Borough and a large amount of agricultural land. By relating results of flow simulation, natural geochemistry, and analyses of anthropogenic (human-made) contaminants, the source areas for water and contaminants were determined with more confidence than by using only flow simulation. Analysis of natural geochemistry identified water sources from both limestone and dolomite aquifers. Geochemistry results also indicated fractures, not conduits, were the dominant source of water from aquifers; however, quantitative source identification was not possible. Chemical ratios of chloride and bromide were useful to show that all samples of ground water had sources with chemical contributions from land surface. Nitrogen isotope ratio analysis indicated animal manure as the possible primary source of nitrate in most ground water. Some of the nitrate in ground water had chemical fertilizer as a source. At the Wineland well field, chemical fertilizer was likely the source of nitrate. The nitrate in water from the Hershberger well field was from a mixture of fertilizer and animal-manure sources. Human sewage was ruled out as a major source of nitrate in water from the municipal wells by results showing 1) wastewater compounds in sewage were rarely detected and 2) a mass-balance calculation indicating the small contribution of nitrogen that could be attributed to septic systems.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Arsenic in ground water in selected parts of southwestern Ohio, 2002-03

Arsenic concentrations were measured in 57 domestic wells in Preble, Miami, and Shelby Counties, in southwestern Ohio. The median arsenic concentration was 7.1 ?g/L (micrograms per liter), and the maximum was 67.6 ?g/L. Thirty-seven percent of samples had arsenic concentrations greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard of 10 ?g/L. Elevated arsenic concentrations (>10 ?g/L) were detected over the entire range of depths sampled (42 to 221 feet) and in each of three aquifer types, Silurian carbonate bedrock, glacial buried-valley deposits, and glacial till with interbedded sand and gravel. One factor common in all samples with elevated arsenic concentrations was that iron concentrations were greater than 1,000 ?g/L. The observed correlations of arsenic with iron and alkalinity are consistent with the hypothesis that arsenic was released from iron oxides under reducing conditions (by reductive dissolution or reductive desorption). Comparisons among the three aquifer types revealed some differences in arsenic occurrence. For buried-valley deposits, the median arsenic concentration was 4.6 ?g/L, and the maximum was 67.6 ?g/L. There was no correlation between arsenic concentrations and depth; the highest concentrations were at intermediate depths (about 100 feet). Half of the buried-valley samples were estimated to be methanic. Most of the samples with elevated arsenic concentrations also had elevated concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and ammonia. For carbonate bedrock, the median arsenic concentration was 8.0 ?g/L, and the maximum was 30.7 ?g/L. Arsenic concentrations increased with depth. Elevated arsenic concentrations were detected in iron- or sulfate-reducing samples. Arsenic was significantly correled with molybdenum, strontium, fluoride, and silica, which are components of naturally ocurring minerals. For glacial till with interbedded sand and gravel, half of the samples had elevated arsenic concentrations. The median was 11.4 ?g/L, and the maximum was 27.6 ?g/L. At shallow depths (<100 feet), this aquifer type had higher arsenic and iron concentrations than carbonate bedrock. It is not known whether these observed differences among aquifer types are related to variations in (1) arsenic content of the aquifer material, (2) organic carbon content of the aquifer material, (3) mechanisms of arsenic mobilization (or uptake), or (4) rates of arsenic mobilization (or uptake). A followup study that includes solid-phase analyses and geochemical modeling was begun in 2004 in northwestern Preble County.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Characterization of salinity loads and selenium loads in the Smith Fork Creek region of the Lower Gunnison River Basin, western Colorado, 2008-2009

The lower Gunnison River Basin of the Colorado River Basin has elevated salinity and selenium levels. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of June 24, 1974 (Public Law 93–320, amended by Public Law 98–569), authorized investigation of the Lower Gunnison Basin Unit Salinity Control Project by the U.S. Department of the Interior. The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service are responsible for assessing and implementing measures to reduce salinity and selenium loading in the Colorado River Basin. Cost-sharing programs help farmers, ranchers, and canal companies improve the efficiency of water delivery systems and irrigation practices. The delivery systems (irrigation canals) have been identified as potential sources of seepage, which can contribute to salinity loading. Reclamation wants to identify seepage from irrigation systems in order to maximize the effectiveness of the various salinity-control methods, such as polyacrylamide lining and piping of irrigation canals programs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Reclamation, developed a study to characterize the salinity and selenium loading of seven subbasins in the Smith Fork Creek region and identify where control efforts can be maximized to reduce salinity and selenium loading. Total salinity loads ranged from 27.9±19.1 tons per year (t/yr) to 87,500±80,500 t/yr. The four natural subbasins—BkKm, RCG1, RCG2, and SF1—had total salinity loads of 27.9±19.1 t/yr, 371±248 t/yr, 2,180±1,590 t/yr, and 4,200±2,720 t/yr, respectively. The agriculturally influenced sites had salinity loads that ranged from 7,580±6,900 t/yr to 87,500±80,500 t/yr. Salinity loads for the subbasins AL1, B1, CK1, SF2, and SF3 were 7,580±6,900 t/yr; 28,300±26,700 t/yr; 48,700±36,100 t/yr; 87,500±80,900 t/yr; and 52,200±31,800 t/yr, respectively. The agricultural salinity load was separated into three components: tail water, deep percolation, and canal seepage. Annual tail-water salinity loads ranged from 48.0 to 2,750 tons in the Smith Fork Creek region. The largest tail-water salinity load was in subbasin SF3, and the lowest salinity load from tail water was in subbasin R1. The remaining four agricultural subbasins—AL1, B1, CK1, and SF2—had tail-water loads of 285 t/yr, 180 t/yr, 333 t/yr, and 1,700 t/yr, respectively. The deep percolation component of the agricultural salinity load ranged from 3,300 t/yr in subbasin AL1 to 51,800 t/yr in subbasin SF2. Subbasins R1, B1, CK1, and SF3 had deep percolation salinity loads of 4,940 t/yr, 15,200 t/yr, 21,200 t/yr, and 23,600 t/yr, respectively. The canal seepage component of the agricultural salinity load ranged from 1,100 t/yr in subbasin AL1 to 15,300 t/yr in subbasin CK1. Subbasins B1, R1, SF2, and SF3 had canal seepage salinity loads of 6,610 t/yr, 3,890 t/yr, 9,430 t/yr, and 12,100 t/yr, respectively. Four natural subbasins—RCG1, RCG2, SF1, and BkKm—were used to calculate natural salinity yields for the remaining subbasins. The appropriate salinity yield was applied to the corresponding number of acres and resulted in a natural salinity load for each subbasin. The annual salinity yields for the Dakota Sandstone and Burro Canyon Formation, Mancos Shale, and crystalline geologies are 0.217 tons per acre (t/acre), 0.113 t/acre, and 0.151 t/acre, respectively. Three of the four natural subbasins had little to no selenium load based on the measured data and calculated selenium loads. Subbasins RCG1 and RCG2 had surface-water selenium loads of 0.106±0.024 pounds (lb) and 0.00 lb, respectively. Subbasin BkKm did not have an estimated surface-water selenium load because of the lack of any water-quality samples during the study period. The subbasin designated by site CK1 had the highest selenium load with 135±38.7 lb, and the next highest subbasins in decreasing order are B1, SF3, AL1, SF1, and R1 with selenium loads of 69.6±28.4 lb, 56.5±23.8 lb, 30.5±16.6 lb, 26.8±6.95 lb, and 15.6±27.7 lb, respectively.

Colorado↗