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Patterns and magnitude of flow alteration in California, USA

Quantifying the natural flow regime is essential for management of water resources and conservation of aquatic ecosystems. Understanding the degree to which anthropogenic activities have altered flows is critical for developing effective conservation strategies. Assessing flow alteration requires estimates of flows expected in the absence of human influence and under current land use and water management. There are several techniques to predict flows in streams and rivers; however, none have been applied to make predictions of natural flow conditions over large regions and time periods. We utilised machine learning statistical models to predict natural monthly flows (natural streamflows without the influence of water management or anthropogenic land use) in California from 1950 to 2015, using time-dependent and fixed watershed variables from reference stream gages. These models were then used to make estimates of mean, maximum and minimum monthly flows in all streams in the state. We compared observed flows measured at 540 stream gages across the state with expected natural flows at the same locations, to quantify the type, frequency and magnitude of flow alteration over the past 20 years (1996–2015). A gage was considered altered if an observed flow metric (monthly mean, annual maximum, annual minimum) fell outside the 80% prediction interval of the modelled flow estimate. We found that 95% of the 540 stream gages in California had at least 1 month of altered flows over the past 20 years, and 11% of gages were frequently altered (over two-thirds of the months recorded had evidence of altered flows). The type of alteration varied across the state with flows being either depleted, inflated or a mix of both at different times of the year. Most altered gages (68%) exhibited both depletion and inflation in monthly flows over the time period. Inflation of monthly mean flows was most prevalent during the summer months, while depletion of monthly flows was evident throughout the year. Type, frequency and magnitude of flow alteration varied by region. Flow depletion was present at >80% of gages in the North Coast and Central Coast, flow inflation was measured at >80% of gages in the South Coast and San Francisco Bay and both depletion and inflation were evident at >80% of gages in the Sacramento River and San Joaquin and Tulare regions. Annual maximum flows were consistently depleted and annual minimum flows were commonly inflated in the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley (Sacramento River and San Joaquin and Tulare regions). This is the first study to comprehensively assess flow alteration at stream gages across California. Understanding the patterns and degree of alteration can aid in prioritising streams for environmental flow assessment and developing conservation strategies for native freshwater biota.

California↗

Perspectives on bay-delta science and policy

The State of Bay–Delta Science 2008 highlighted seven emerging perspectives on science and management of the Delta. These perspectives had important effects on policy and legislation concerning management of the Delta ecosystem and water exports. From the collection of papers that make up the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, we derive another seven perspectives that augment those published in 2008. The new perspectives address nutrient and contaminant concentrations in Delta waters, the failure of the Delta food web to support native species, the role of multiple stressors in driving species toward extinction, and the emerging importance of extreme events in driving change in the ecosystem and the water supply. The scientific advances that underpin these new perspectives were made possible by new measurement and analytic tools. We briefly discuss some of these, including miniaturized acoustic fish tags, sensors for monitoring of water quality, analytic techniques for disaggregating complex contaminant mixtures, remote sensing to assess levee vulnerability, and multidimensional hydrodynamic modeling. Despite these new tools and scientific insights, species conservation objectives for the Delta are not being met. We believe that this lack of progress stems in part from the fact that science and policy do not incorporate sufficiently long-term perspectives. Looking forward half a century was central to the Delta Visioning process, but science and policy have not embraced this conceptual breadth. We are also concerned that protection and enhancement of the unique cultural, recreational, natural resource, and agricultural values of the Delta as an evolving place, as required by the Delta Reform Act, has received no critical study and analysis. Adopting wider and longer science and policy perspectives immediately encourages recognition of the need for evaluation, analysis, and public discourse on novel conservation approaches. These longer and wider perspectives also encourage more attention to the opportunities provided by heavily invaded ecosystems. It is past time to turn scientific and policy attention to these issues.

California↗

The response of streams to changes in atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen in the Adirondack Mountains

Acidic deposition is the result of upwind sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions into the atmosphere from human activities. Environmental impacts from acidic deposition across forested landscapes include acidification of soil and drainage water, depletion of available soil nutrient bases, and impacts to and changes in forest and aquatic species composition and biodiversity. Acidic deposition can mobilize aluminum (Al) from soil-to-soil solution and subsequently to drainage water in forms that can be toxic to aquatic life. When exposed to decreasing levels of acidic deposition, which has been occurring in New York since the late 1970s, some soils and drainage waters have become gradually less acidic. Remaining questions relate to effects on stream resources, anticipated resource recovery under increasingly lower levels of deposition, and the levels of deposition (target loads, TLs) needed to reach a range of stream ecosystem recovery targets. Environmental scientists commonly estimate thresholds of air pollutant emissions and resulting atmospheric deposition at which adverse ecological effects are manifested. This analysis is often done using critical loads (CL) and/or TLs, using approaches that account for the spatial and temporal aspects of acidification and recovery. Exceedance represents the extent to which current levels of acidic deposition exceed the level expected to cause ecological harm. The research reported here is intended to help address S and N deposition TLs and ecosystem recovery of Adirondack streams, a resource that has been less thoroughly investigated than lakes. The overarching goal of this work is to highlight key considerations that will help inform decision-makers and ecosystem managers who are responsible for environmental policy in New York State and beyond. Salient aspects of stream TL modeling are discussed with an aim of informing not only scientists, but also policymakers, ecosystem managers, and nonscientists who are required to make decisions related to the effects of acidic deposition on natural ecosystems. Analyses reported herein quantify relations among chemical indicators and metrics of fish community health and biodiversity in streams of the Adirondack Park. This information is used to indicate levels of atmospheric deposition necessary to alleviate harmful effects on fish populations. Results of this investigation provide a framework that can be applied to better understand how modeled stream acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) values that are developed to support TL investigations can be adjusted to reflect high-flow ANC values that may be associated with toxic conditions. Since process models are often calibrated to a low-flow or average flow condition, the magnitude and spatial extent of TL exceedances increase substantially when episodic acidification is considered.

New York↗

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

Simulation of water-table response to sea-level rise and change in recharge, Sandy Hook unit, Gateway National Recreation Area, New Jersey

The Sandy Hook Unit, Gateway National Recreation Area (hereafter Sandy Hook) in New Jersey is a 10-kilometer-long spit visited by thousands of people each year who take advantage of the historical and natural resources and recreational opportunities. The historical and natural resources are threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), changes in precipitation and groundwater recharge, and changes in the frequency and severity of coastal storms. Fresh groundwater resources are important to the ecosystems of Sandy Hook. The Bayside Holly Forest, one of only two known old-growth American holly ( Ilex opaca ) maritime forests, is particularly vulnerable to global climate change because of the proximity of the water table to land surface in low-lying areas and the potential for saltwater intrusion and inundation. The shallow groundwater-flow system on Sandy Hook is dominated by recharge from precipitation, fresh groundwater discharge to evapotranspiration (ET), discharge to surface seeps, and submarine groundwater discharge (groundwater discharging directly to the ocean). A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates the shallow groundwater-flow system and interaction with surrounding saltwater boundaries was constructed to simulate multi-density groundwater flow, treating the freshwater/saltwater transition zone as a sharp interface that represents the half-seawater surface. Groundwater-flow simulations completed for this study include a Baseline scenario, three SLR scenarios (0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 meter [m]), two Recharge scenarios—a 10-percent Increased Recharge scenario and a 10-percent Decreased Recharge scenario—and a scenario with 0.6 m of SLR and 10-percent increase in recharge. The Recharge scenarios indicate the system is not sensitive to a 10-percent increase or decrease in recharge from the Baseline scenario. In the SLR scenarios, SLR causes the water table to rise, resulting in increased fresh groundwater discharge to ET and seeps, and reduced submarine discharge compared to the Baseline scenario. The increased discharge to ET and seeps causes the magnitude of water-table rise to be less than that of SLR, which in turn causes the thickness of the freshwater lens to thin, reducing the depth to the half-seawater surface. Water-table rise associated with SLR diminishes the thickness of the unsaturated zone; comparing the Baseline and the 0.6-m SLR scenarios, the area where the simulated water table is above land surface increases by 50.6 hectares, from about 0.9 to 7.4 percent of the land area of Sandy Hook. Areas where the simulated water table is above land surface are likely to be emergent wetlands and contain freshwater if they are tens of meters or more from the shoreline. The steady-state simulations indicate that the percentage of land where the half-seawater surface is less than 9 m below the water table increases from about 2.5 percent (20 hectares) to about 9 percent (74 hectares) with 0.6 m of SLR. In low-lying areas close to the Sandy Hook Bay shoreline, the half-seawater surface is simulated to be as much as 20 m closer to the water table with SLR of 0.6 m. Transient salinization, if any, of shallow groundwater from increased frequency or severity of storm-driven inundation is not included in the analysis. Natural resources on Sandy Hook, particularly the Bayside Holly Forest, may be adversely affected by the rising water table associated with SLR. Freshwater emergent wetlands may increase in area at the expense of other ecosystem assemblages occurring in or on the edges of low-lying enclosed depressions. Cultural resources close to the water table, such as existing basements of structures, may be adversely affected.

New Jersey↗

Redundancy analysis reveals complex den use patterns by eastern spotted skunks, a conditional specialist

Wildlife managers tasked with understanding habitat and resource selection at the population level attempt to characterize patterns in nature that aid and inform conservation. Resource selection functions (RSFs), such as discrete choice analyses, are the standard convention to characterize the effects of habitat attributes on resource selection patterns. These tools are invaluable for wildlife management and conservation and have proven successful in numerous studies. However, the analysis of small datasets using RSF becomes problematic when attempting to account for complex sources of variation, and the inclusion of factors such as weather or intrinsic variation on target species' response may produce models with poor predictive ability. We compared the application of generalized linear mixed-effects modeling (GLMM) and redundancy analysis (RDA) on Appalachian spotted skunk ( Spilogale putorius putorius ) den selection data at four study sites within the George Washington, Jefferson, and Monongahela National Forests, and surrounding private lands in the Appalachian Mountains of western Virginia and northeastern West Virginia. We assessed the need for the inclusion of alternative sources of variation (i.e., weather conditions and individual intrinsic variation) in addition to standard habitat attributes to better identify sources of variation in den selection. The RDA elucidated complex and opposing relationships, whereby den type use was based on reproductive status or weather condition, which were not evident in the GLMM model that relied solely on habitat measures. Our results demonstrated the importance of examining resource selection data using multivariate techniques in addition to conventional discrete choice analyses to better understand intricate habitat–species relationships, especially for small datasets. Furthermore, from our analyses, we proposed that spotted skunks are neither a true generalist nor specialist species. We introduced and define the term “conditional specialist” to represent a species that is conditionally selective of a given resource in response to one or more current environmental or intrinsic conditions.

Viginia, West Virginia↗

In situ determination of particle friction angles of fluvial gravels

Particle friction angles Φ represent the physical resistance to initial movement of a sediment particle and are therefore useful for relating initiation of motion to particular flows. We determined over 8000 friction angle values at five natural rivers by applying a new method that uses a digital load cell to directly measure the force F d required to pivot or slide a particle out of its natural resting place. Within each site, median Φ values were very similar to previously reported relations, yet different enough between sites that a location-general predictive empirical relation would produce errors in Φ of ±10 degrees for D i / K s > 1. Furthermore, within a D i / K s class at a given site the range in Φ was as large as 80°, much greater than the range of median values between classes for natural sediment mixtures. Using estimates of τ c * from extensive bed load measurements made by Andrews and Erman [1986] at Sagehen Creek and the in situ Φ measurements made in this study together with a theoretical model developed by Wiberg and Smith [1987], we show that Φ measurements made with this new method can be used to accurately predict τ c * for natural, water-worked sediments. Additionally, these results confirm that a Φ value ≪Φ 50 is more appropriate for predicting τ c * of a given size class.

Water Resources Research↗

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Western water and climate change

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Ecological Applications↗

Natural phosphorus sources for the Pacific Northwest

Phosphorus is a naturally occurring element found in all rocks; the amount varies by the type of rock. The amount of phosphorus in sediments is expected to be correlated with the amount of phosphorus in the parent rocks. Streambed sediment collected by the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program were used to estimate the variation of phosphorus across the Pacific Northwest. This file provides an estimate of the mean concentration of phosphorus in soils for each incremental catchment of the USGS Pacific Northwest SPARROW model.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington↗

Table Rock Lake Water-Clarity Assessment Using Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite Data

Water quality of Table Rock Lake in southwestern Missouri is assessed using Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data. A pilot study uses multidate satellite image scenes in conjunction with physical measurements of secchi disk transparency collected by the Lakes of Missouri Volunteer Program to construct a regression model used to estimate water clarity. The natural log of secchi disk transparency is the dependent variable in the regression and the independent variables are Thematic Mapper band 1 (blue) reflectance and a ratio of the band 1 and band 3 (red) reflectance. The regression model can be used to reliably predict water clarity anywhere within the lake. A pixel-level lake map of predicted water clarity or computed trophic state can be produced from the model output. Information derived from this model can be used by water-resource managers to assess water quality and evaluate effects of changes in the watershed on water quality.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ground water in the Fresno area, California; preliminary report

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Fresno County, is developing a computer model of the unconfined aquifer system in the Fresno area. In the area, consolidated rocks are overlain by unconsolidated deposits. The unconsolidated deposits are divided into a lower fine-grained unit and an overlying coarse-grained unit. The system is assumed to be a single unconfined unit. The top of the system is the water table and the bottom is the base of the coarse-grained deposits. The northeastern boundary is the only natural lateral hydrologic boundary. The other lateral boundaries are placed so that errors along them will not affect heads in the area of interest. Initial heads for 1943, hydraulic conductivity, and bottom elevations were used in a steady-state model that generated net flux values. It is anticipated that most of the remaining effort will center on model calibration. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water budget for the Nueces Estuary, Texas, May-October 1998

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD), and Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) are charged by the Texas Legislature with determining freshwater inflows required to maintain the ecological health of streams, bays, and estuaries in Texas. To determine required inflows, the three agencies collect data and conduct studies on the needs for freshwater inflows to Texas estuaries. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the TWDB, conducted a study in the Nueces estuary (fig. 1) during May–October 1998 to provide water-budget data for calibration of a TWDB model that will be used to estimate the effects of different freshwater inflow volumes on circulation and salinity in the estuary. The water budget (inflows and outflows) for the Nueces estuary was estimated by using (1) data collected during this study, (2) data collected at two upstream streamflow-gaging stations previous to this study, and (3) evaporation and return-flow data obtained from other agencies. This fact sheet describes the data-collection methods and the results of the water-budget estimates for the Nueces estuary.

Texas↗

Climate Change Research at USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)

Research and development projects at EROS apply unique resources to support the USGS mission of developing understanding, monitoring, and modeling of climate variability and change and their human, physical, and biological impacts. Remote sensing resources, both new and archived, form the core of our ability to determine changes in the state or condition of the Earth’s surface and its dynamic landscape and ecosystem processes. This rich resource provides powerful biophysical information for local to global areas. Archival data form the basis for assessing human and climate impacts on the land surface, trends of land use, and an understanding of climate and management impacts. Biophysical information from satellite data is assimilated into quantitative models that allow all disciplines of the USGS to understand impacts on ecosystem processes. Major processes and problems we address include: carbon fluxes, hydrological processes, albedo changes and regional climates, mangroves and wetland protection of coastal environments, natural and manmade hazards (e.g., fire and drought), ecosystem change and succession, land use and land cover change, and more. The integration of remote sensing, modeling, and multidisciplinary approaches fosters international scientific leadership across all disciplines for the USGS.

Fact Sheet↗

Water Budget for the Island of Molokai, Hawaii

Ground-water recharge is estimated from a monthly water budget calculated using long-term average rainfall and streamflow data, synthesized pan-evaporation data, and soil characteristics. The water-budget components are defined seasonally, through the use of monthly data, and spatially by geohydrologic areas, through the use of a geographic information system model.<\p> The long-term average ground-water recharge for Molokai was estimated for natural land-use conditions. The island-wide mean recharge rate for natural conditions is 189 million gallons per day, which is 34 percent of rainfall. The island-wide rainfall, direct runoff, and actual evapotranspiration are 552, 89, and 274 millions gallons per day, respectively.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Geology, sequence stratigraphy, and oil and gas assessment of the Lewis Shale Total Petroleum System, San Juan Basin, New Mexico and Colorado: Chapter 5 in Total petroleum systems and geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the San Juan Basin Province, exclusive of Paleozoic rocks, New Mexico and Colorado

The Lewis Shale Total Petroleum System (TPS) in the San Juan Basin Province contains a continuous gas accumulation in three distinct stratigraphic units deposited in genetically related depositional environments: offshore-marine shales, mudstones, siltstones, and sandstones of the Lewis Shale, and marginal-marine shoreface sandstones and siltstones of both the La Ventana Tongue and the Chacra Tongue of the Cliff House Sandstone. The Lewis Shale was not a completion target in the San Juan Basin (SJB) in early drilling from about the 1950s through 1990. During that time, only 16 wells were completed in the Lewis from natural fracture systems encountered while drilling for deeper reservoir objectives. In 1991, existing wells that penetrated the Lewis Shale were re-entered by petroleum industry operators in order to fracture-stimulate the Lewis and to add Lewis gas production onto preexisting, and presumably often declining, Mesaverde Group production stratigraphically lower in the section. By 1997, approximately 101 Lewis completions had been made, both as re-entries into existing wells and as add-ons to Mesaverde production in new wells. Based on recent industry drilling and completion practices leading to successful gas production from the Lewis and because new geologic models indicate that the Lewis Shale contains both source rocks and reservoir rocks, the Lewis Shale TPS was defined and evaluated as part of this U.S. Geological Survey oil and gas assessment of the San Juan Basin. Gas in the Lewis Shale Total Petroleum System is produced from shoreface sandstones and siltstones in the La Ventana and Chacra Tongues and from distal facies of these prograding clastic units that extend into marine rocks of the Lewis Shale in the central part of the San Juan Basin. Reservoirs are in shoreface sandstone parasequences of the La Ventana and Chacra and their correlative distal parasequences in the Lewis Shale where both natural and artificially enhanced fractures produce gas. The Lewis Continuous Gas Assessment Unit (AU 50220261) is thought to be self-sourced from and self-sealed by marine shales and mudstones deposited within the Lewis Shale that enclose clastic parasequences in the La Ventana and Chacra Tongues. The gas resource is thought to be a continuous accumulation sourced from the Lewis Shale throughout the depositional basin. In the Lewis Continuous Gas Assessment Unit (AU 50220261), for continuous gas resources, there is an F95 of 8,315.22 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG) and an F5 of 12,282.31 BCFG, with a mean value of 10,177.24 BCFG. There is an F95 of 18.08 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL) and an F5 of 47.32 MMBNGL, with a mean of 30.53 MMBNGL.

Colorado;New Mexico↗

Availability of natural and regulated streamflows for instream uses during historical droughts, lower Neosho River, southeastern Kansas

The effects of three historical droughts on streamflows available for instream use on the lower Neosho River at Iola and Parsons, Kansas, were investigated. Natural streamflows that occurred during the three droughts were compared to the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows recommended by State agencies. A reservoir model was used to investigate the effects of John Redmond Reservoir on the natural streamflows. The regulated streamflow produced from the reservoir model then was compared to the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows. The regulated streamflows usually satisfied the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows more often than the natural streamflows. Frequency analysis made on the natural and regulated streamflows showed that the number of days of low flow (less than 30 cubic feet per second) were reduced by the regulated streamflows, which aided in the achievement of the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows goals. The reservoir model was used to determine if sufficient storage was available in John Redmond Reservoir to modify the natural streamflows in order to satisfy the multiple-use and water-quality streamflow recommendations. Additional storage of 15,400 acre-feet was estimated to be needed to maintain the multiple-use streamflows at Parsons.

Kansas, Missouri↗