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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

USGS2002

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Book chapter↗

USGS2001

Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1, 1994 through December 31, 1999

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska - Fairbanks, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, has maintained a seismic monitoring program at potentially active volcanoes in Alaska since 1988 (Power and others, 1993; Jolly and others, 1996). The primary objectives of this program are the seismic surveillance of active, potentially hazardous, Alaskan volcanoes and the investigation of seismic processes associated with active volcanism. Between 1994 and 1999, the AVO seismic monitoring program underwent significant changes with networks added at new volcanoes during each summer from 1995 through 1999. The existing network at Katmai –Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) was repaired in 1995, and new networks were installed at Makushin (1996), Akutan (1996), Pavlof (1996), Katmai - south (1996), Aniakchak (1997), Shishaldin (1997), Katmai - north (1998), Westdahl, (1998), Great Sitkin (1999) and Kanaga (1999). These networks added to AVO's existing seismograph networks in the Cook Inlet area and increased the number of AVO seismograph stations from 46 sites and 57 components in 1994 to 121 sites and 155 components in 1999. The 1995–1999 seismic network expansion increased the number of volcanoes monitored in real-time from 4 to 22, including Mount Spurr, Redoubt Volcano, Iliamna Volcano, Augustine Volcano, Mount Snowy, Mount Griggs, Mount Katmai, Novarupta, Trident Volcano, Mount Mageik, Mount Martin, Aniakchak Crater, Pavlof Volcano, Mount Dutton, Isanotski volcano, Shisaldin Volcano, Fisher Caldera, Westdahl volcano, Akutan volcano, Makushin Volcano, Great Sitkin volcano, and Kanaga Volcano (see Figures 1-15). The network expansion also increased the number of earthquakes located from about 600 per year in1994 and 1995 to about 3000 per year between 1997 and 1999. Highlights of the catalog period include: 1) a large volcanogenic seismic swarm at Akutan volcano in March and April 1996 (Lu and others, 2000); 2) an eruption at Pavlof Volcano in fall 1996 (Garces and others, 2000; McNutt and others, 2000); 3) an earthquake swarm at Iliamna volcano between September and December 1996; 4) an earthquake swarm at Mount Mageik in October 1996 (Jolly and McNutt, 1999); 5) an earthquake swarm located at shallow depth near Strandline Lake; 6) a strong swarm of earthquakes near Becharof Lake; 7) precursory seismicity and an eruption at Shishaldin Volcano in April 1999 that included a 5.2 ML earthquake and aftershock sequence (Moran and others, in press; Thompson and others, in press). The 1996 calendar year is also notable as the seismicity rate was very high, especially in the fall when 3 separate areas (Strandline Lake, Iliamna Volcano, and several of the Katmai volcanoes) experienced high rates of located earthquakes. This catalog covers the period from January 1, 1994, through December 31,1999, and includes: 1) earthquake origin times, hypocenters, and magnitudes with summary statistics describing the earthquake location quality; 2) a description of instruments deployed in the field and their locations and magnifications; 3) a description of earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival; 4) velocity models used for earthquake locations; 5) phase arrival times recorded at individual stations; and 6) a summary of daily station usage from throughout the report period. We have made calculated hypocenters, station locations, system magnifications, velocity models, and phase arrival information available for download via computer network as a compressed Unix tar file.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

Base of principal aquifer for the Elkhorn-Loup model area, North-Central Nebraska

In Nebraska, the water managers in the Natural Resources Districts and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources are concerned with the effect of ground-water withdrawal on the availability of surface water and the long-term effects of ground-water withdrawal on ground- and surface-water resources. In north-central Nebraska, in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, ground water is used for irrigation, domestic supply, and public supply; surface water is used in this area for irrigation, recreation, and hydropower production. In recognition of these sometimes competing ground- and surface-water uses in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lewis and Clark Natural Resources District, the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District, the Lower Loup Natural Resources District, the Lower Niobrara Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, the Middle Niobrara Natural Resources District, the Upper Elkhorn Natural Resources District, and the Upper Loup Natural Resources District agreed to cooperatively study water resources in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins. The goals of the overall study were to construct and calibrate a regional ground-water flow model of the area and to use that flow model as a tool to assess current and future effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow and to help develop long-term water-resource management strategies for this area, hereafter referred to as the Elkhorn-Loup model area. The Elkhorn-Loup model area covers approximately 30,800 square miles, and extends from the Niobrara River in the north to the Platte River in the south. The western boundary of the Elkhorn-Loup model area coincides with the western boundary of the Middle Niobrara, Twin Platte, and Upper Loup Natural Resources Districts; the eastern boundary coincides with the approximate location of the western extent of glacial till in eastern Nebraska. The principal aquifer in most of the Elkhorn-Loup model area is the High Plains aquifer; the principal aquifer in the remaining part of the Elkhorn-Loup model area is an unnamed alluvial aquifer. The upper surface of the geologic units that directly underlie the aquifer is called the 'base of aquifer' in this report. The geologic unit that forms the base of aquifer in the Elkhorn-Loup model area varies by location. The Tertiary-age Brule Formation generally is the base of aquifer in the west; the Cretaceous-age Pierre Shale generally is the base of aquifer in the east. The purpose of this report is to update the altitude and configuration of the base of the principal aquifer in the Elkhorn-Loup model area and a 2-mile buffer area around the Elkhorn-Loup model area, using base-of-aquifer data from test holes, registered water wells, and oil and gas wells within the Elkhorn-Loup model area and a 20-mile buffer area around the Elkhorn-Loup model area that have become available since the publication of earlier maps of the base of aquifer for this area. The base-of-aquifer map is important for the Elkhorn-Loup ground-water flow model because it defines the model's lower boundary. The accuracy of the Elkhorn-Loup ground-water flow model and the accuracy of the model's predictions about the effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow are directly related to the accuracy of the model's lower boundary.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2005

Development and analysis of regional curves for streams in the non-urban valley and ridge physiographic province, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia

Regression relations for bankfull stream characteristics based on drainage area (often called 'regional curves') are used in natural stream channel design to verify field determinations of bankfull discharge and stream channel characteristics. Bankfull stream characteristics were assessed for stream reaches at 41 streamflow-gaging stations in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. Data collected included bankfull cross-sectional geometry, flood plain geometry, and longitudinal profile data. In addition, particle-size distributions of streambed material were determined and data on basin characteristics were compiled for each reach. Regional curves were developed for bankfull cross-sectional area, width, and discharge with R2 values of 0.95, 0.89, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. Examination of the regional curves residuals indicates that there is more variability in bankfull cross-sectional area, width, and discharge for smaller streams than for larger streams. In contrast, there is more variability for bankfull mean depth for larger streams than for smaller streams. Geographic analysis of regional curve residuals indicated that there were no further subdivisions within the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in the three-state study area for which individual sets of regional curves should be developed. In addition, two separate sets of regional curves were developed with data from the 41 sites to examine potential differences in the relations between the southern (n = 9) and central (n = 32) sections of the province. There were differences in slope and intercept between the two bankfull discharge test relations and a difference in intercept for the width test relations at the 95-percent confidence level. However, the results of this analysis were inconclusive and therefore one set of regional curves for the study area is presented in this report. The regional curves were compared to regression models developed from similar data collected in the Pennsylvania and Maryland portions of the province. No statistical difference in the slope or intercept of regression lines of the three data sets was detected for any of the four bankfull parameters at the 95-percent confidence level. Basin characteristics such as percentage of basin forested (percent forested) and percentage of basin underlain by carbonate bedrock (percent carbonate) were analyzed to evaluate variability among regression points. Multivariate regression relations including explanatory terms for percent carbonate and drainage area produced higher R2 values than the regional curves for bankfull cross-sectional area (R2 = 0.95), bankfull width (R2 = 0.92), and bankfull discharge (R2 = 0.93). There was no improvement for the bankfull mean depth relation from adding the additional term. Inclusion of the other basin characteristics in multivariate relations did not improve the regression models. Regression models developed for the 1.5-year discharge for all streamflow-gaging stations with peak discharge data throughout Virginia (n = 486) and throughout the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in Virginia (n = 147) were compared to the regional curve relating bankfull discharge to drainage area. A similar trend in decreasing variability with increasing drainage area was observed for the 1.5-year discharge for all stations in Virginia . This indicates that the change in variability observed in the discharge regional curve likely would exist with a larger data set. There was no statistical difference at the 95-percent confidence level between regression relations for the southern section of the province (n = 40) and the central section (n = 107). This finding supports maintaining only one set of regional curves for the study area. Not all of the variability in the regional curves is explained by drainage area alone. Causes of the remaining variability likely vary among study sites. Users of the regional curves developed in this study are cautioned that, because of inherent variability in hydrologic data, a thorough analysis of the fluvial system and the drainage basin is necessary when evaluating the bankfull characteristics of a stream.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2005

Geologic and hydrogeologic framework of the Espanola basin -- Proceedings of the 4th annual Espanola Basin Workshop, Santa Fe, New Mexico, March 1-3, 2005

This report presents abstracts of technical studies that pertain to the hydrogeologic framework of the This report presents abstracts of technical studies that pertain to the hydrogeologic framework of the Española basin, a major subbasin of the Cenozoic Rio Grande rift. Sediments and interbedded volcanic rocks that fill the Española basin comprise an aquifer system that is an important source of water for many residents of the basin, including people in the cities of Santa Fe, Española, and Los Alamos as well as Native Americans in eleven Pueblos. The abstracts describe results of technical studies that were presented either as poster exhibits or oral presentations at the forth-annual Española basin workshop, held March 1-2 of 2005 in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The principal goal of this workshop was to share information about ongoing studies. The Española basin workshop was hosted by the Española basin technical advisory group (EBTAG) and sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, and both the Water Research Technical Assistance Office and the Groundwater Protection Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Abstracts in this report have been grouped into six information themes: Basic Water Data, Water Quality and Water Chemistry, Water Balance and Stream/Aquifer Interaction, Data Integration and Hydrologic Model Testing, Three-Dimensional Hydrogeological Architecture, and Geologic Framework. Taken together, the abstracts in this report provide a view of the current status of hydrogeologic research within the Española basin. , a major subbasin of the Cenozoic Rio Grande rift. Sediments and interbedded volcanic rocks that fill the Española basin comprise an aquifer system that is an important source of water for many residents of the basin, including people in the cities of Santa Fe, Española, and Los Alamos as well as Native Americans in eleven Pueblos. The abstracts describe results of technical studies that were presented either as poster exhibits or oral presentations at the forth-annual Española basin workshop, held March 1-2 of 2005 in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The principal goal of this workshop was to share information about ongoing studies. The Española basin workshop was hosted by the Española basin technical advisory group (EBTAG) and sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, and both the Water Research Technical Assistance Office and the Groundwater Protection Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Abstracts in this report have been grouped into six information themes: Basic Water Data, Water Quality and Water Chemistry, Water Balance and Stream/Aquifer Interaction, Data Integration and Hydrologic Model Testing, Three-Dimensional Hydrogeological Architecture, and Geologic Framework. Taken together, the abstracts in this report provide a view of the current status of hydrogeologic research within the Española basin.

New Mexico↗

USGS2011

Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To allow for water budget comparisons to the ephemeral models, the two perennial models were then run from 1980 to 2007, the time period constrained somewhat by the later record for the high-altitude climate station used in the simulation. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide mean annual rates and volumes derived from each year of the simulation. Mean annual bias for the calibration period for Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek watersheds was within 6 and 3 percent, and relative errors were about 18 and -2 percent, respectively. For the 1980-2007 period of record, mean recharge efficiency and runoff efficiency (percentage of precipitation as groundwater inflow and runoff) averaged 7 and 39 percent, respectively, for Ash Canyon Creek, and 8 and 31 percent, respectively, for Clear Creek. For this same period, groundwater inflow volumes averaged about 500 acre-feet for Ash Canyon and 1,200 acre-feet for Clear Creek. The simulation period for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from water years 1978 to 2007. Mean annual simulated precipitation ranged from 6 to 11 inches. Estimates of recharge efficiency for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from 3 percent for Eureka Canyon to 7 percent for Eldorado Canyon. Runoff efficiency ranged from 7 percent for Eureka Canyon and 15 percent at Brunswick Canyon. For the 1978-2007 period, mean annual groundwater inflow volumes ranged from about 40 acre-feet for Eureka Canyon to just under 5,000 acre-feet for Churchill Canyon watershed. Watershed model results indicate significant interannual variability in the volumes of groundwater inflow caused by climate variations. For most of the modeled watersheds, little to no groundwater inflow was simulated for years with less than 8 inches of precipitation, unless those years were preceded by abnormally high precipitation years with significant subsurface storage carryover.

Nevada↗

USGS2023

Seafloor observations eliminate a landslide as the source of the 1918 Puerto Rico Tsunami

The 11 October 1918 devastating tsunami in northwest Puerto Rico had been used as an example for earthquake‐induced landslide tsunami hazard. Three pieces of evidence pointed to a landslide as the origin of the tsunami: the discovery of a large submarine landslide scar from bathymetry data collected by shipboard high‐resolution multibeam sonar, reported breaks of submarine cable within the scar, and the fit of tsunami models to flooding observations. Newly processed seafloor imagery collected by remotely operated vehicle (ROV) show, however, pervasive Fe–Mn crust (patina) on the landslide walls and floor, indicating that the landslide scar is at least several hundred years old. C 14 "> 14 C dates of sediment covering the landslide floor verify this interpretation. Although we have not searched the region systematically for an alternative tsunami source, we propose a possible source—a two‐segment normal‐fault rupture along the eastern wall of Mona rift. The proposed fault location matches the published normal faults with steep bathymetry and is close to the International Seismological Center–Global Earthquake Model catalog locations of the 1918 mainshock and aftershocks. The ROV observations further show fresh vertical slickensides and rock exposure along the proposed fault trace. Hydrodynamic models from an M w "> M w 7.2 earthquake rupture along the eastern wall of the rift faithfully reproduce the reported tsunami amplitudes, polarities, and arrival times. Our analysis emphasizes the value of close‐up observations and physical samples to augment remote sensing data in natural hazard studies.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2021

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2007

A conceptual life-history model for pallid and shovelnose sturgeon

Intensive management of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers has resulted in dramatic physical changes to these rivers. These changes have been implicated as causative agents in the decline of pallid sturgeon. The pallid sturgeon, federally listed as endangered, is endemic to the turbid waters of the Missouri River and the Lower Mississippi River. The sympatric shovelnose sturgeon historically was more common and widespread than the pallid sturgeon. Habitat alteration, river regulation, pollution, and over-harvest have resulted in the now predictable patterns of decline and localized extirpation of sturgeon across species and geographic areas. Symptomatic of this generalized pattern of decline is poor reproductive success, and low or no recruitment of wild juveniles to the adult population. The purpose of this report is to introduce a conceptual life-history model of the factors that affect reproduction, growth, and survival of shovelnose and pallid sturgeons. The conceptual model provided here was developed to organize the understanding about the complex life history of Scaphirhynchus sturgeons. It was designed to be used for communication, planning, and to provide the structure for a population-forecasting model. These models are intended to be dynamic and responsive to new information and changes in river management, thereby providing scientists, stakeholders, and managers with ways to improve understanding of the effects of management actions on the ecological requirements of Scaphirhynchus sturgeons. As new scientific knowledge becomes available, it could be included in the model in many ways at various integration levels.

Circular↗

USGS2020

Linking mosquito surveillance to dengue fever through Bayesian mechanistic modeling

Our ability to effectively prevent the transmission of the dengue virus through targeted control of its vector, Aedes aegypti , depends critically on our understanding of the link between mosquito abundance and human disease risk. Mosquito and clinical surveillance data are widely collected, but linking them requires a modeling framework that accounts for the complex non-linear mechanisms involved in transmission. Most critical are the bottleneck in transmission imposed by mosquito lifespan relative to the virus’ extrinsic incubation period, and the dynamics of human immunity. We developed a differential equation model of dengue transmission and embedded it in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that allowed us to estimate latent time series of mosquito demographic rates from mosquito trap counts and dengue case reports from the city of Vitória, Brazil. We used the fitted model to explore how the timing of a pulse of adult mosquito control influences its effect on the human disease burden in the following year. We found that control was generally more effective when implemented in periods of relatively low mosquito mortality (when mosquito abundance was also generally low). In particular, control implemented in early September (week 34 of the year) produced the largest reduction in predicted human case reports over the following year. This highlights the potential long-term utility of broad, off-peak-season mosquito control in addition to existing, locally targeted within-season efforts. Further, uncertainty in the effectiveness of control interventions was driven largely by posterior variation in the average mosquito mortality rate (closely tied to total mosquito abundance) with lower mosquito mortality generating systems more vulnerable to control. Broadly, these correlations suggest that mosquito control is most effective in situations in which transmission is already limited by mosquito abundance.

Espírito Santo↗

USGS1995

Water-quality characteristics of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay at the Fall Line, Virginia, July 1988 through June 1993

Development in the Chesapeake Bay region has adversely affected the water quality of the Bay. The general degradation in the Bay has resulted in the decline of commercial fishing industries and has reduced the area of aquatic vegetation that provides food and habitat for fish and shellfish. In order to assess the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing the effects of excess nutrients and suspended solids on Chesapeake Bay, it is necessary to quantify the loads of these constituents into the Bay, and to evaluate the trends in water quality. This report presents the results of a study funded by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Programs and the U.S. Geological Survey, to monitor and estimate loads of selected nutrients and suspended solids discharged to Chesapeake Bay from five major tributaries in Virginia. The water-quality data and load estimates provided in this report also will be used to calibrate computer models of Chesapeake Bay. Water-quality constituents were monitored in the James and Rappahannock Rivers over a 5-year period, and in the Pamunkey, Appomattox, and Mattaponi Rivers over a 4-year period. Water-quality samples were collected from July 1, 1988 through June 30, 1993, for the James and Rappahannock Rivers; from July 1, 1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Pamunkey and Appomattox Rivers; and from September 1,1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Mattaponi River. Water-quality samples were collected on a scheduled basis and during stormflow to cover a range in discharge conditions. Monitore water-quality constituents, for which loads were estimated include total suspended solids (residue, total at 105° Celsius), dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica. Organic nitrogen concentrations were calculated from measurements of ammonia and total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and organic nitrogen loads were estimated using these calculations. Other selected water-quality constituents were monitored for which loads were not calculated. Daily mean load estimates of each constituent were computed by use of a seven-parameter log-linear regression model that uses variables of time, discharge, and seasonality. Concentration of total nitrogen ranged from less than 0.14 to 3.41 mg/L (milligrams per liter), with both extreme values occurring at the Rappahannock River. Concentration of total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from less than 0.1 mg/L in the James, Rappahannock, and Appomattox Rivers to 3.0 mg/L in the James River. Organic nitrogen was the predominant form of nitrogen at all stations except the Rappahannock River, where nitrite plus-nitrate nitrogen was predominant, and organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the measured total Kjeldahl nitrogen at all stations, ranging from 0.01 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 2.86 mg/L in the James River. Concentration of dissolved ammonia nitrogen ranged from 0.01 mg/L in the Pamunkey River to 0.54 mg/L at the James River. Concentration of nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen ranged from 0.02 to 1.05 mg/L in the James River. Concentrations of total phosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in the Rappahannock and the Mattaponi Rivers to 1.4 mg/L in the James River. Dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in all five rivers to 0.51 mg/L in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a concentration of less than 1 mg/L in all five rivers to 844 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Total organic carbon ranged from 1.1 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 110 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Dissolved silica ranged from 2.4 mg/L in the James River to 18 mg/L in the Appomattox River. The James and Rappahannock Rivers had high median concentrations and large ranges in concentrations for most constituents, probably because of a greater number of point and nonpoint sources of nutrients and suspended solids, and differences in land use when compared with the other basins. A significantly higher median concentration and greater range of dissolved orthophosphorus generally occurred at the James River than in all other rivers, which primarily is due to the greater number of point sources, such as municipal waste-water treatment plants. The Rappahannock River had significantly higher median concentrations and greater ranges of dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen and total nitrogen than other rivers, probably derived from agricultural sources. Total organic carbon was highest in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey River Basins that contain expanses of wetlands. The Appomattox River had the highest concentration of dissolved silica. The median monthly load of total nitrogen ranged from 16,500 kg (kilogram) in the Mattaponi River to 371,000 kg in the James River. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 12,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 205,500 kg, also in the James River. Organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the total Kjeldahl nitrogen load in all five rivers, ranging from a median monthly load of 11,251 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,299,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved ammonia nitrogen was 1,130 kg in the Mattaponi River and was as much as 21,050 kg in the James River, whereas nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 4,065 kg in the Mattaponi River to 156,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of total phosphorus ranged from 1,670 kg in the Mattaponi River to 61,600 kg in the James River, whereas the median monthly load of dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from 350 kg in the Mattaponi River to 25,900 kg in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a median monthly load of 241,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 20,050,000 kg in the James River. Total organic carbon ranged from a median monthly load of 167,000 kg in the Mattaponi River to 2,100,000 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved silica ranged from 209,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,625,000 kg in the James River. In general, annual loads for complete years of data collection were greatest at the James River for all constituents, probably because of the much higher discharge, greater basin size, and higher rates of runoff. Yields, or computations of loads per square mile of basin area, were generally highest at the Rappahannock River for total suspended solids, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen, and total nitrogen. Dissolved orthophosphorus was the only constituent with a yield consistently greater at the James River. Yields of total phosphorus were highest for the James and Rappahannock River basins, whereas yields of dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica were similar for all five river basins. Quality-assurance analyses that compare the results of the Virginia Division of Consolidated Laboratory Services and the U.S. Geological Survey Laboratory indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the laboratories for several constituents. Differences between laboratories were found to be caused by differences in analytical reporting limits, differences in analytical technique, or a slight bias at both laboratories. Quality-assurance data were used to address analytical technique problems, and to qualify final concentrations and loads.

Virginia↗

USGS2014

A multiphased approach to groundwater investigations for the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

The Edwards-Trinity aquifer is a vital groundwater resource for agricultural, industrial, and public supply uses in the Pecos County region of western Texas. Resource managers would like to understand the future availability of water in the Edwards-Trinity aquifer in the Pecos County region and the effects of the possible increase or temporal redistribution of groundwater withdrawals. To provide resource managers with that information, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Middle Pecos Groundwater Conservation District, Pecos County, City of Fort Stockton, Brewster County, and Pecos County Water Control and Improvement District No. 1, completed a three-phase study of the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in parts of Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Reeves Counties. The first phase was to collect groundwater, surface-water, geochemical, geophysical, and geologic data in the study area and develop a geodatabase of historical and collected data. Data compiled in the first phase of the study were used to develop the conceptual model in the second phase of the study. The third phase of the study involved the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer to simulate groundwater conditions based on various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios. Analysis of well, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic data contributed to the development of the conceptual model in phase 1. Lithologic information obtained from well reports and geophysical data was used to describe the hydrostratigraphy and structural features of the groundwater-flow system, and aquifer-test data were used to estimate aquifer hydraulic properties. Geochemical data were used to evaluate groundwater-flow paths, water-rock interaction, aquifer interaction, and the mixing of water from different sources in phase 2. Groundwater-level data also were used to evaluate aquifer interaction, as well as to develop a potentiometric-surface map, delineate regional groundwater divides, and describe regional groundwater-flow paths. During phase 3, the data collected and compiled along with the conceptual information in the study area were incorporated into a numerical groundwater-flow model to evaluate the sustainability of recent (2008) and projected water-use demands on groundwater resources in the study area.

Texas↗

USGS2022

Water-budget accounting for tropical regions model (WATRMod) documentation

Regional groundwater recharge commonly is estimated using a threshold-type water-budget approach in which groundwater recharge is assumed to occur when water in the plant-root zone exceeds the soil’s moisture storage capacity. A water budget of the plant-soil system accounts for water inputs (rainfall, fog interception, irrigation, septic-system leachate, and other inputs), water outputs (runoff, evaporation, transpiration, and recharge), and changes in stored water during a specified time interval. Water budgets can be computed on any desired interval, including annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily intervals. In general, uncertainty in recharge estimates is expected to be lower using daily or subdaily intervals relative to monthly and annual intervals. Average recharge rates computed over a period of a year or multiple years are commonly determined from water budgets computed using a daily computation interval capable of capturing rainfall and land-cover changes during the period. This report documents the Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model, or WATRMod, code that can be used to estimate spatially variable, daily water-budget components in tropical-island and other appropriate settings. The purpose of this report is to provide descriptions of WATRMod’s (1) approach to computing a daily water budget, (2) represented processes, (3) limitations, and (4) execution procedure, input requirements, output files, and example files. The model computes a daily water budget for each hydrologically independent subarea within the overall study area. A subarea is defined by its climatic, soil, land-cover, and human-related (for example, adding irrigation or other water) characteristics. The water-budget model can represent processes including rainfall, fog interception, irrigation, septic-system leachate, direct recharge that bypasses the plant-soil system, runoff, canopy evaporation in forested areas, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge. The water-budget model can represent either one of the following different accounting orders: (1) accounting for loss of water by evapotranspiration before accounting for recharge, and (2) accounting for recharge before accounting for evapotranspiration. WATRMod’s limitations include: (1) uncharacterized, subdaily transient changes in water inputs and outputs from the plant-soil system, (2) unrepresented precipitation in the form of snow and sublimation, and (3) routing runoff from one subarea to an adjacent subarea that is not directly represented.

Hawaii↗

USGS1977

User's guide for U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff models; revised 1977

Modified versions of the rainfall-runoff model described by Dawdy, Lichty, and Bergmann (1972) (see W72-11754) are used in the U.S. Geological Survey as a means of synthesizing flood discharges for small drainage areas. Synthesized flood discharges derived through use of long-term (60-70 year) rainfall and evaporation data, provide a more representative time base than do short-term (5-15 year) discharge records obtained by conventional stream gaging techniques. The rainfall, discharge, and evaporation data for use with rainfall-runoff models are stored in the Unit and Daily Values Files. Any of these data which were collected during the current or immediately preceding water year are stored on direct access, online disk files. Older data are stored in sequential files on magnetic tapes. Both the disks and tapes contain short-term data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for calibration of models and long-term data for use in synthesis of long-term flood records. Information in this report provides guidelines for the assembly, storage, and retrieval of data needed to use these models, and also provides description and documentation of computer programs for model calibration and flood-record synthesis. (See also W74-11234) (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Development of regional skew coefficients for selected flood durations in the Columbia River Basin, northwestern United States and British Columbia, Canada

Flood-frequency (hereinafter frequency) estimates provide information used to design, operate, and maintain hydraulic structures such as bridges and dams. Failures of these structures could cause catastrophic loss of property, life, or both. In addition to frequency estimates that use annual peak streamflow, frequency estimates of flood durations are required to safely and effectively operate the numerous dams in the Columbia River Basin of the northwestern United States, and British Columbia, Canada. Frequency studies rely on U.S. Geological Survey Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency (Bulletin 17C, published in 2018). A major consideration in estimating frequencies is the use of skew coefficients, which measure the asymmetry of flood flow distributions. Large uncertainties are associated with estimating the at-site skew coefficients directly from streamflow records, which are limited in length. Skew also is sensitive to extreme events for limited record lengths. Bulletin 17C recommends using regional skew coefficients to weight with the at-site skew estimate for more reliable frequency estimates. In this study, streamflow records from 313 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey streamgage sites and 97 regulated sites with naturalized streamflow records provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers were used to develop regional skew models for the Columbia River Basin. The naturalized streamflow records were synthesized by removing regulatory components such as withdrawals and reservoir storage. Skew models were developed for 1-, 3-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-day flood durations and used to estimate regional skew coefficients for the Columbia River Basin. This report used Bayesian statistical regression methods to develop and analyze regional skew models based on hydrologically important basin characteristics. After examining a suite of available basin characteristics, mean annual precipitation had the strongest correlation to skew across the flood durations. Regional skew regression models were fit using mean annual precipitation for selected subbasins in the Columbia River Basin.

Columbia River Basin↗

USGS2016

Uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. We explore sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami, study site, available input data, sediment grain size, and model. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, published case studies indicate that both forward and inverse tsunami sediment transport models perform well enough to be useful for deciphering tsunami characteristics, including size, from deposits. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models.

Journal of Disaster Research↗

USGS2021

Extreme-event magnetic storm probabilities derived from rank statistics of historical Dst intensities for solar cycles 14-24

A compilation is made of the largest and second-largest magnetic-storm-maximum intensities, − Dst 1 and − Dst 2 , for solar cycles 14–24 (1902–2016) by sampling Oulu Dcx for cycles 19–24, using published − Dst m values for 4 intense storms in cycles 14, 15, and 18 (1903, 1909, 1921, 1946), and calculating 15 new storm-maximum − Dst m values (reported here) for cycles 14–18. Three different models are fitted to the cycle-ranked − Dst 1 and − Dst 2 values using a maximum-likelihood algorithm: A Gumbel model, an unconstrained Generalized-Extreme-Value model, and a Weibull model constrained to have a physically justified maximum storm intensity of − Dst m = 2500 nT. All three models are good descriptions of the data. Since the best model is not clearly revealed with standard statistical tests, inference is precluded of the source process giving rise to storm-maximum − Dst m values. Of the three candidate models, the constrained Weibull gives the lowest superstorm occurrence probabilities. Using the compiled data and the constrained Weibull model, a once-per-century storm intensity is estimated to be − Dst 1 = 663 nT, with a bootstrap 68% confidence interval of [497, 694] nT. Similarly, the probability that a future storm will have an intensity exceeding that of the March 1989 superstorm, − Dst m > 565 nT, is 0.246 per cycle with a 68% confidence interval of [0.140, 0.311] per cycle. Noting (possibly slight) ambiguity in the rankings of storm intensities, using the same methods, but storms more intense than those identified for cycles 14–16, would yield a higher once-per-century intensity and a higher probability for a − Dst m > 565 nT storm.

Space Weather↗