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U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2018 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2007 as a collaborative interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. During the past 11 years, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (more than 10 years) science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in the southwest Wyoming region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS WLCI Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2018, the USGS initiated 3 new projects and continued efforts on 21 ongoing science and web-development projects. The first new project was initiated to support Secretarial Order 3362 which calls on the USGS to assist Western States in mapping big-game migration corridors and developing new mapping tools. During 2018, the USGS hosted a workshop in Laramie, Wyoming, which included more than 70 State and Federal wildlife experts from Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming. Most of the mapping and migration tool curricula used in the workshop were derived from prior WLCI studies and mapping efforts of big-game migration movement in habitats undergoing large-scale energy development. The second new project was in response for WLCI partners to better understand sedimentation and hydrogeomorphic processes in a cold-desert headwater and the third new project was designed to improve our approach for people to access, manage, and analyze WLCI data and WLCI resource information. The USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases) and provided more than a dozen professional oral and poster presentations at scientific meetings and numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. This report summarizes the objectives and status of each project and highlights the USGS 2018 accomplishments and products.

Wyoming↗

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗

Hydrogeology of the Old Faithful area, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, and its relevance to natural resources and infrastructure

A panel of leading experts (The Old Faithful Science Review Panel) was convened by Yellowstone National Park (YNP) to review and summarize the geological and hydrological understanding that can inform National Park Service management of the Upper Geyser Basin area. We give an overview of present geological and hydrological knowledge of the Old Faithful hydrothermal (hot water) system and related thermal areas in the Upper Geyser Basin. We prioritize avenues for improving our understanding of key knowledge gaps that limit informed decision-making regarding human use in this fragile natural landscape. Lastly, we offer guidelines to minimize impacts to the hydrothermal system that could be used to aid decisions by park management. Old Faithful sits within the Upper Geyser Basin, an area of abundant hydrothermal activity where boiling waters extend from the surface to significant depth within glacial sediments and underlying volcanic rocks. The geyser systems are directly fed by waters recharged decades to millennia ago, which are surrounded by colder, younger waters. Activity of the geysers is controlled by complex subsurface plumbing with fractures and conduits separated by regions of low permeability. Observations over the past century indicate that the thermal areas and their features are both fragile and highly dynamic. Although Old Faithful has erupted regularly for the past 150 years, it exhibits changes in eruptive behavior over time, and the average interval between eruptions has increased by about 50 percent over the past 50 years. It is clear that human activity has modified the hydrothermal system in the past; conversely, natural features pose ongoing hazards to humans and human infrastructure. Current (2014) long-term programs to measure heat discharge by chloride-flux monitoring, and more recently by thermal-infrared imaging, are crucial for assessing the status of the hydrothermal system. Complementary studies could include airborne resistivity, environmental tracers, numerical modeling, and greater emphasis on measuring the discharge of water during geyser eruptions. Such data are needed to better understand the subsurface plumbing systems that feed the geysers. Further understanding can be gained through installation of shallow groundwater observation wells, surface geophysical studies, and direct measurement of temperature gradients near the surface. It also is critical to archive existing data from all studies in a manner that will be readily accessible to scientists and decision makers. Monitoring and data collection can be achieved through the YNP geology program, by direct funding to other groups, or by encouraging and facilitating externally funded research. There are many documented examples at YNP and elsewhere where human infrastructure and natural thermal features have negatively affected each other. Unless action is taken, human conflicts with the Old Faithful hydrothermal system are likely to increase over the coming years. This is partly because of the increase in park visitation over the past decades, but also because the interval between eruptions of Old Faithful has increased, lengthening the time spent (and services needed) for each visitor at Old Faithful. To avoid an increase in visitor impacts, the National Park Service should consider 2 alternate strategies to accommodate people, vehicles, and services in the Upper Geyser Basin, such as shuttle services from staging (parking and dining) areas with little or no recent hydrothermal activity. We further suggest that YNP consider a zone system to guide maintenance and development of infrastructure in the immediate Old Faithful area. A “red” zone includes hydrothermally active land where new development is discouraged and existing infrastructure is modified with great care. An outer “green” zone represents areas where cooler temperatures and less hydrothermal flow are thought to exist, and where development and maintenance could proceed as occurs elsewhere in the park. An intermediate “yellow” zone would require preliminary assessment of subsurface temperatures and gas concentrations to assess suitability for infrastructure development. The panel recommends that YNP management follow the lead of the National Park System Advisory Board Science Committee (2012) by applying the “precautionary principle” when making decisions regarding the interaction of hydrothermal phenomena and park infrastructure in the Old Faithful area and other thermal areas within YNP.

Wyoming↗

U.S. Geological Survey Rocky Mountain Region 2022 science exchange, showcasing interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art USGS science

Introduction The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States represent complex, interconnected systems that sustain a number of species, including tens of millions of humans. These systems face several challenges, including worsening drought, altered wildfire regimes, climate change, and the spread of invasive species. These factors can exacerbate one another, further contributing to habitat loss and affecting species of conservation concern. Characterizing and managing these challenges require interdisciplinary communities of scientists to develop information and decision-support tools that can inform holistic land and water management solutions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region 2022 Science Exchange focused on the use of interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art science being conducted by USGS scientists in the region to address these complex problems. The USGS Rocky Mountain Regional Office organized its first Science Exchange in 2017 to share scientific information between leaders and early career scientists throughout the region. Science Exchanges held in 2018 and 2020 focused on drought science relevant to the region and the Earth Monitoring, Analyses, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept, which is designed to facilitate interdisciplinary, timely, and actionable science related to drought in the Colorado River Basin and other areas. Based on the emerging need for more holistic approaches to address increasingly complex natural resource issues that affect society, the Region hosted a virtual fourth Science Exchange for three days in April 2022. This event focused on barriers and bridges to interdisciplinary science and highlighted studies from the Region to inspire collaboration across disciplines. Presentations described recent and ongoing research that applied collaborative and state-of-the-art methods to address problems in the fields of geology, hydrology, ecology, and natural hazards. Science collaboration and outreach to all levels of stakeholders are vital elements needed for providing timely and actionable data, interpretations, analytical tools, and products. These presentations led to active online chats and panel discussions and showcased interdisciplinary science and advanced methods that may inform and lead to more effective, holistic management decisions as the Western United States adapts to ongoing and future changes.

Fact Sheet↗

Quality-assurance and data management plan for groundwater activities by the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas, 2014

As the Nation’s principle earth-science information agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is depended on to collect data of the highest quality. This document is a quality-assurance plan for groundwater activities (GWQAP) of the Kansas Water Science Center. The purpose of this GWQAP is to establish a minimum set of guidelines and practices to be used by the Kansas Water Science Center to ensure quality in groundwater activities. Included within these practices are the assignment of responsibilities for implementing quality-assurance activities in the Kansas Water Science Center and establishment of review procedures needed to ensure the technical quality and reliability of the groundwater products. In addition, this GWQAP is intended to complement quality-assurance plans for surface-water and water-quality activities and similar plans for the Kansas Water Science Center and general project activities throughout the USGS. This document provides the framework for collecting, analyzing, and reporting groundwater data that are quality assured and quality controlled. This GWQAP presents policies directing the collection, processing, analysis, storage, review, and publication of groundwater data. In addition, policies related to organizational responsibilities, training, project planning, and safety are presented. These policies and practices pertain to all groundwater activities conducted by the Kansas Water Science Center, including data-collection programs, interpretive and research projects. This report also includes the data management plan that describes the progression of data management from data collection to archiving and publication.

Open-File Report↗

Value of information and decision pathways: Concepts and case studies

Information used in decision making arises from the structuring of observations and data. The collection, dissemination, and use of information has monetary and non-monetary costs (e.g., competition for attention) and necessitates trade-offs. Understanding the benefits of having information (i.e., the value of information, VOI), including resulting societal outcomes, is useful to information producers/funders and decision makers. Using theory, use cases, and hypotheticals, we describe how information (e.g., geospatial information) is valued and incorporated in decisions and actions related to managing natural resources, environments, and the impacts of natural and anthropogenic hazards. We discuss the nature of information and how it relates to models (conceptual, mental, scientific), beliefs, knowledge, and economic analyses. VOI approaches and behavioral factors that potentially affect information use and value are summarized. Framing of information and VOI through data to decision pathways (DDPs) at first simplifies understanding, then illustrates the benefits of information, and the human and societal challenges encountered in valuing and using it. We present approaches to overcome these challenges. Our transdisciplinary analysis concludes with a summary of critical issues affecting DDPs and VOI, and suggestions for improving both economic analyses and the actionability and use of information.

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Environmental ↗

Hazards management in Grand County, Colorado— Fire fuels characterization

The USGS Fire Science Initiative is designed to identify potential wildfire risks and related hazards and to mitigate their effects on people, property, and natural resources. The USGS Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center (RMGSC) plays an integral role in the fire science demonstration project targeting Grand County, Colo., which uses remote sensing imagery, other geospatial data, and advanced classification techniques to produce inventories and assessments of the current state of the ecosystem. The data gathered - extent of tree mortality and insect infestation, changes in fire fuels, susceptibility to post-fire effects, distribution of wildland-urban interface areas, etc. - will give much needed information to decisionmakers on the Federal, State, and local levels.

Colorado↗

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

Leveraging community science data for population assessments during a pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted field research programs, making conservation and management decision-making more challenging. However, it may be possible to conduct population assessments using integrated models that combine community science data with existing data from structured surveys. We developed a space-time integrated model to characterize spatial and temporal variability in population distribution. We fit our integrated model to 10 years of eBird (2010-2020) and 9 years of aerial survey (2010-2019) mottled duck count data to forecast 2020 population size along the western Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Estimates of mottled duck abundance were similar in magnitude to estimates calculated using previous methods, but were more precise and showed evidence of a declining population. The spatial distribution for mottled ducks each year was characterized by several concentrations of relatively high abundance, although the location of these abundance ‘hotspots’ varied over time. Expected abundance was higher for areas with a higher proportion of area covered by marsh habitat. By leveraging large-scale community science data, we were able to conduct a population assessment despite the disruption in structured surveys caused by the pandemic. As participation in community science platforms continues to increase, we anticipate modeling frameworks, like the integrated model we developed here, will become increasingly useful for informing conservation and management decision-making.

Louisiana, Texas↗

Restoring Pacific Lamprey in the Umpqua River Basin of Oregon: A workshop summary

The Umpqua River Basin in southwestern Oregon (Figure 1) is part of the lands inhabited by the Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians and an area of active co-management authority. This Basin supports a unique fish fauna, including important populations of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ), and other native fishes that are endemic to the region (Mims et al. 2018). Among these species, the Pacific Lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) is one of the most unique, representing an ancient lineage of jawless fishes that long predates the evolution of any other species of fish in the basin (Clemens et al. 2017, 2021a). The Pacific Lamprey also represents an important cultural and food resource that features prominently in the indigenous practices of the Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians. This report provides a select summary of topics related to the conservation of Pacific Lamprey in the Umpqua River Basin. Many of the topics addressed herein were discussed in a workshop co-hosted by the Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians and the U.S. Geological Survey in April of 2022. This workshop was focused on threats to Pacific Lamprey in fresh waters of the basin. The workshop highlighted science conducted over the past 15 years by local managers and researchers to understand and address these threats and provide new information relevant to the conservation and restoration of Pacific Lamprey. Attendees included staff from the Coquille Indian Tribe, Yakama Nation, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Partnership for Umpqua Rivers, Rogue River Watershed Council, Curry Watersheds Council, PacifiCorp, Trout Unlimited, Jackson Soil and Water Conservation District, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S. Forest Service. This report provides an overview of this workshop and recent science and provides an overview of potential future efforts that could inform restoration of Pacific Lamprey. This summary is organized into four sections that relate to the main topics of the workshop: 1) The physical habitat template (stream flow, instream wood, sediment, and water temperature), 2) movement barriers and reservoirs, 3) biological invasions, and 4) climate adaptation. These do not represent an exhaustive list of topics related to conservation of Pacific Lamprey in the Umpqua Basin.

Oregon↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗

Challenge theme 7: Information support for management of border security and environmental protection: Chapter 9 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Historically, international borders were located far from the major political and economic capitals of their countries and rarely received adequate planning or infrastructure development. Today, as a result of global economics and increased movement of goods between nations, border regions play a much greater role in commerce, tourism, and transportation. For example, Mexico is the second largest destination for United States exports (Woodrow Wilson Center Mexico Institute, 2009). The rapid population and economic growth along the United States–Mexican border, undocumented human border crossings, and the unique natural diversity of resources in the Borderlands present challenges for border security and environmental protection. Assessing risks and implementing sustainable growth policies to protect the environment and quality of life greatly increase in complexity when the issues cross an international border, where social services, environmental regulations, lifestyles, and cultural beliefs are unique for each country. Shared airsheds, water and biological resources, national security issues, and disaster management needs require an integrated binational approach to assess risks and develop binational management strategies.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

Third U.S. Geological Survey Wildland Fire-Science Workshop : Denver, Colorado, November 12-15, 2002

Executive Summary -- The historically significant wildland fire events that occurred in the United States during 2000 and 2002, together with the associated recognition of the need for a different national policy of forest management, has led to an increased awareness of the need for cooperative effort among all Federal agencies in planning for and managing the risks and consequences of wildland fire. The expertise and capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are significant resources in this regard, and the agency is becoming increasingly involved in fire-science activities in support of the various land-management agencies that are dealing directly with this issue. The First USGS Wildland Fire Workshop was held in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in 1997 and helped to establish the direction of USGS in sharing its expertise with the fire-management agencies. The Second USGS Wildland Fire Workshop was held in Los Alamos, New Mexico, in 2000 and brought together all the agencies involved in the management of wildland fires in order to determine their needs, to demonstrate USGS capabilities to meet those needs, and to establish methods for the USGS to distribute data and tools useful in fire management. It enhanced the relationships developed during the 1997 workshop and helped to define USGS' role in the fire-management community. The Third USGS Wildland Fire-Science Workshop, held in Denver, Colorado, November 12?15, 2002, was an opportunity for exchange of information on recent progress in the area of fire science and to determine the gaps in fire-science research that could be addressed by the USGS. In addition to more than 90 USGS scientists engaged in fire-related research and managers of organizational units involved in some aspect of wildland fire activities, the workshop was attended by about 30 representatives of 11 other Federal agencies. There also were a number of attendees affiliated with several universities, private companies, and State and local agencies. The 4-day meeting consisted of a pre-workshop field trip to the Hayman Fire area, several keynote presentations, five panel discussions, presentation and 'breakout' discussion of four 'white paper' topics, and a poster session with more than 30 presentations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Integrating distance sampling survey data with population indices to separate trends in abundance and temporary immigration

Managers rely on accurate estimators of wildlife abundance and trends for management decisions. Despite the focus of contemporary wildlife science on developing methods to improve inference from wildlife surveys, legacy datasets often rely on index counts that lack information about the detection process. Data integration can be a useful tool for combining index counts with data collected under more rigorous designs (i.e., designs that account for the detection process), but care is required when datasets represent different population processes or are mismatched in space and time. This can be particularly problematic in cases where animals aggregate in response to a spatially or temporally limited resource because individuals may temporarily immigrate from outside the study area and be included in the abundance index. Abundance indices based on brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) feeding aggregations within coastal meadows in early summer in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA, are one such example. These indices reflect the target population (brown bears residing within the park) and temporary immigrants (i.e., bears drawn from outside the park boundary). To properly account for the effects of temporary immigration, we integrated the index data with abundance data collected via park-wide distance sampling surveys, the latter of which properly addressed the detection process. By assuming that the distance data provide inference on abundance and the index counts represent some combination of abundance and temporary immigration processes, we were able to decompose the relative contribution of each to overall trend. We estimated that the density of brown bears within our study area was 38–54 adults/1,000 km 2 during 2003–2019 and that abundance increased at a rate of approximately 1.4%/year. The contribution of temporary immigrants to overall trend in the index was low, so we created 3 hypothetical scenarios to more fully demonstrate how the integrated approach could be useful in situations where the composite trend in meadow counts may obscure trends in abundance (e.g., opposing trends in abundance and temporary immigration). Our work represents a conceptual advance supporting the integration of legacy index data with more rigorous data streams and is broadly applicable in cases where trends in index values may represent a mixture of population processes.

Alaska↗

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product↗

Climate adaptation Science Centers—Annual report for 2018

2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center! With the passage of the fiscal year 2018 budget on March 23, 2018, our program name was changed from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC). The eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers were renamed Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). The name changes more clearly align the national and regional centers and emphasize their focus on meeting natural resource adaptation needs. Although the program has a new name, our mission has not changed. We are still hard at work delivering science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate. During the past 10 years, the NCASC and the eight regional CASCs funded over 425 science projects and built a network of research partners, resource management stakeholders, interdisciplinary staff, fellows, and early career researchers. In celebration of our work and accomplishments over the last 10 years, the NCASC began a monthly web post series on “10 Things You May Not Know” about topics our science has focused on, including drought, glaciers, and wildfire. Additionally, CASCs that had completed their initial hosting agreement with the USGS underwent a formal review and recompetition process. New hosting agreements were awarded to the Southwest and North Central CASCs in 2018. Read the 2018 annual report to learn more about the CASCs' great science, partnerships, capacity building, and more from 2018.

Open-File Report↗

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

Streamflow as a stressor: Disentangling hydrology and water quality impacts to characterize flow-ecology relationships for two stream assemblages across two southeastern landscapes

Disassociating the independent effects of flow and water quality on the ecology of flowing waters is an overarching goal in water resource science needed to improve the efficacy of watershed management. However, the interrelatedness of these gradients and their subsequent alteration due to land use change has constrained progress made on this front. The objective of this study was to use benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage data to characterize flow-ecology relationships that were unchanged by water quality impacts across two southeastern landscapes in the USA to help detect ecological change driven by flow alteration. General linear latent models were used to identify taxa that were responsive to high or low flow metrics and water quality gradients. Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models were then developed using these indicator taxa and three biological metrics to identify flow-specific relationships that were unaffected by water quality impacts. Three low flow-specific relationships were identified, illustrating how potential agricultural or urban impacts to hydrology reduced stream biological health. Importantly, flow-ecology relationships developed using indicator taxa in this study effectively captured hydrology-specific impacts while biological metrics typical of state monitoring and assessment programs did not. Therefore, developing flow-specific biological metrics is a critical step when developing management strategies targeting flow alteration. Implementing standardized frameworks such as the one characterized here can limit contradictory findings and improve streamflow enhancement and restoration project efficacy. These low flow-specific relationships will enhance managers' capacity to develop environmental flow standards, monitor their success, and better understand urban and agricultural impacts on stream assemblages.

Alabama↗