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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Abiotic stress and biotic factors mediate range dynamics on opposing edges

Aim In the face of global change, understanding causes of range limits are one of the most pressing needs in biogeography and ecology. A prevailing hypothesis is that abiotic stress forms cold (upper latitude/altitude) limits, whereas biotic interactions create warm (lower) limits. A new framework – Interactive Range-Limit Theory (iRLT) – asserts that positive biotic factors such as food availability can ameliorate abiotic stress along cold edges, whereas abiotic stress can have a positive effect and mediate biotic interactions (e.g., competition) along warm limits. Location Northeastern United States Taxon Carnivora Methods We evaluated two hypotheses of iRLT using occupancy and structural equation modeling (SEM) frameworks based on data collected over a 6-year period (2014–2019) of six carnivore species across a broad latitudinal (42.8–45.3°N) and altitudinal (3–1451 m) gradient. Results We found that snow directly limits populations, but prey or habitat availability can influence range dynamics along cold edges. For example, bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) and coyotes ( Canis latrans ) were limited by deep snow and long winters, but the availability of prey had a strong positive effect. Conversely, snow had a strong positive effect on the warm limits of Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ), countering the negative effect of competition with the phylogenetically similar bobcat and with coyotes, highlighting how climate mediates competition between species. Main conclusions We used an integrated dataset that included competitors and prey species collected at the same spatial and temporal scale. As such, this design, along with a causal modeling framework (SEM), allowed us to evaluate community-wide hypotheses at macroecological scales and identify coarse-scale drivers of species' range limits. Our study supports iRLT and underscores the need to consider direct and indirect mechanisms for studying range dynamics and species' responses to global change.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS1990

Effects of elevated temperatures and rising sea level on Arctic Coast

Ice is a major agent on the inner shelf, gouging the bottom, increasing hydraulic scour, transporting sediment, and influencing river flood patterns. Rapid coastal retreat is common and low barrier islands and beaches are constantly changing due to the influence of permafrost, ice‐push, waves, and currents. Coastal processes are presently a balance between the influence of ice and the action of waves and currents. Quantitative values for processes are poorly known, however our qualitative understanding is nearly complete. Climatic warming and rising sea levels would decrease the temporal and aerial extent of coastal ice thereby expanding the role of waves and currents. As a result, shoreline retreat rates would increase, producing a transgressive erosional surface on the low coastal plain. With increased wave activity, beaches and barrier islands presently nourished by ice push processes would decay and disappear. Increased sediment supply from a deeply thawed, active layer would release more sediments to rivers and coasts. Additional research should be focused on permafrost and sea ice processes active during freeze up and breakup; the two seasons of most vigorous activity and change.

Journal of Cold Regions Engineering↗
USGS2016

Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States

In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete ( Borrelia burgdorferi ) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2007

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Michigan↗
USGS2008

Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (198696)

The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for the period 1986 through 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement maps and time series plots with Hovmo??ller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in order to reveal the underlying space?time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and human-started fires during the 11-year interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution of vegetation across the West and the annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather-related controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural areas. Although the primary controls of human-started fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. ?? IAWF 2008.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2018

Managing the water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Central Asia

This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2016

Using climate, energy, and spatial-based hypotheses to interpret macroecological patterns of North America chelonians

Our study investigates how factors, such as latitude, productivity, and several environmental variables, influence contemporary patterns of the species richness in North American turtles. In particular, we test several hypotheses explaining broad-scale species richness patterns on several species richness data sets: ( i ) total turtles, ( ii ) freshwater turtles only, ( iii ) aquatic turtles, ( iv ) terrestrial turtles only, ( v ) Emydidae, and ( vi ) Kinosternidae. In addition to spatial data, we used a combination of 25 abiotic variables in spatial regression models to predict species richness patterns. Our results provide support for multiple hypotheses related to broad-scale patterns of species richness, and in particular, hypotheses related to climate, productivity, water availability, topography, and latitude. In general, species richness patterns were positively associated with temperature, precipitation, diversity of streams, coefficient of variation of elevation, and net primary productivity. We also found that North America turtles follow the general latitudinal diversity gradient pattern (i.e., increasing species richness towards equator) by exhibiting a negative association with latitude. Because of the incongruent results among our six data sets, our study highlights the importance of considering phylogenetic constraints and guilds when interpreting species richness patterns, especially for taxonomic groups that occupy a myriad of habitats.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS2011

The influence of irrigation water on the hydrology and lake water budgets of two small arid-climate lakes in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

Little is known regarding the origins and hydrology of hundreds of small lakes located in the western Uzbekistan province of Khorezm, Central Asia. Situated in the Aral Sea Basin, Khorezm is a productive agricultural region, growing mainly cotton, wheat, and rice. Irrigation is provided by an extensive canal network that conveys water from the Amu Darya River (AD) throughout the province. The region receives on average 10 cm/year of precipitation, yet potential evapotranspiration exceeds this amount by about 15 times. It was hypothesized that the perennial existence of the lakes of interest depends on periodic input of excess irrigation water. This hypothesis was investigated by studying two small lakes in the region, Tuyrek and Khodjababa. In June and July 2008, surface water and shallow groundwater samples were collected at these lake systems and surrounding communities and analyzed for δ 2 H, δ 18 O, and major ion hydrochemistry to determine water sources. Water table and lake surface elevations were monitored, and the local aquifer characteristics were determined through aquifer tests. These data and climate data from a Class A evaporation pan and meteorological stations were used to estimate water budgets for both lakes. Lake evaporation was found to be about 0.7 cm/day during the study period. Results confirm that the waters sampled at both lake systems and throughout central Khorezm were evaporated from AD water to varying degrees. Together, the water budgets and stable isotope and major ion hydrochemistry data suggest that without surface water input from some source (i.e. excess irrigation water), these and other Khorezm lakes with similar hydrology may decrease in volume dramatically, potentially to the point of complete desiccation.

Khorezm↗
USGS2020

The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics

We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon-chemistry-climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous-generation coupled ESM2-carbon and CM3-chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land-atmosphere-ocean cycling of CO 2 , dust and iron, and interactive ocean-atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO 2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAM↗
USGS2011

Response of spectral vegetation indices to soil moisture in grasslands and shrublands

The relationships between satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs) and soil moisture are complicated because of the time lag of the vegetation response to soil moisture. In this study, we used a distributed lag regression model to evaluate the lag responses of VIs to soil moisture for grasslands and shrublands at Soil Climate Analysis Network sites in the central and western United States. We examined the relationships between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived VIs and soil moisture measurements. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed significant lag responses to soil moisture. The lag length varies from 8 to 56 days for NDVI and from 16 to 56 days for NDWI. However, the lag response of NDVI and NDWI to soil moisture varied among the sites. Our study suggests that the lag effect needs to be taken into consideration when the VIs are used to estimate soil moisture.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2025

Post-fire recovery of sagebrush-steppe communities is better explained by elevation than climate-derived indicators of resistance and resilience

More landscapes require restoration than can feasibly be treated, and so decision-support tools to prioritize areas for treatment are needed. Moreover, restoration is complicated by the threat of biological invasion in disturbed areas, and so indicators of ecosystem resistance to invasion and resilience to disturbance (hereafter R&R) are important candidate criteria for prioritizing sites for restoration. We asked how climate-based R&R indicators that differed in being either categorical or continuous compared in their ability to explain plant-community recovery after six wildfires that collectively encompassed >750,000 ha and 7803 plot-year observations in sagebrush steppe of the western USA. Unique associations of species that most frequently co-occurred were identified using structural topic modelling. Mixed effect random forests were used to identify the relative importance of various R&R indicators in explaining post-fire plant associations compared with weather, landscape characteristics and treatment history. Simple metrics (elevation, latitude, longitude and year of monitoring) were more informative predictors of post-fire recovery than climate-based R&R indicators. However, small differences in the abundances of perennial grass and especially annual grass associations were predicted by the spring modified Thornthwaite Moisture Index (difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration). Synthesis and applications : The convenience of categorical resistance and resilience indicators has led to their widespread adoption for large-scale planning of restoration. Our results reveal that none of the resistance and resilience indicators assessed effectively explained post-fire restoration better than elevation, although a simple continuous resistance and resilience indicator describing water balance performed better than categorical indicators for explaining small but critical differences in cheatgrass association abundances.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon↗
USGS2018

100-year lower Mississippi floods in a global climate model: Characteristics and future changes

Floods in the Mississippi basin can have large negative societal, natural, and economic impacts. Understanding the drivers of floods, now and in the future, is relevant for risk management and infrastructure-planning purposes. We investigate the drivers of 100-yr-return lower Mississippi River floods using a global coupled climate model with an integrated surface water module. The model provides 3400 years of physically consistent data from a static climate, in contrast to available observational data (relatively short records, incomplete land surface data, transient climate). In the months preceding the model’s 100-yr floods, as indicated by extreme monthly discharge, above-average rain and snowfall lead to moist subsurface conditions and the buildup of snowpack, making the river system prone to these major flooding events. The meltwater from snowpack in the northern Missouri and upper Mississippi catchments primes the river system, sensitizing it to subsequent above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee catchments. An ensemble of transient forcing experiments is used to investigate the impacts of past and projected anthropogenic climate change on extreme floods. There is no statistically significant projected trend in the occurrence of 100-yr floods in the model ensemble, despite significant increases in extreme precipitation, significant decreases in extreme snowmelt, and significant decreases in less extreme floods. The results emphasize the importance of considering the fully coupled land–atmosphere system for extreme floods. This initial analysis provides avenues for further investigation, including comparison to characteristics of less extreme floods, the sensitivity to model configuration, the role of human water management, and implications for future flood-risk management.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2008

A 1500-year holocene caribbean climate archive from the Blue Hole, lighthouse reef, belize

Sediment cores (up to 6 m in length) from the bottom of the Blue Hole, a 125 m deep Pleistocene sinkhole located in the lagoon of Lighthouse Reef Atoll, Belize, consist of undisturbed, annually layered biogenic carbonate muds and silts with intercalated coarser grained storm beds. The sedimentation rate of the layered sections is 2.5 mm/y on average, and the long cores span the past 1500 years. Oxygen isotopes of laminated sediment provide a late Holocene climate proxy: A high-resolution ??18O time series traces the final Migration Period Pessimum, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the subsequent temperature rise. Carbon isotopes (??13C) decrease up core and show the impacts of the decline of the Mayan culture and the Suess effect. Time series analyses of ??18O and ??13C content reveal 88-, 60-, 52-, and 32-year cyclicities, and suggest solar forcing. Storm event beds are most common during AD 650-850, around AD 1000, during AD 1200-1300, and AD 1450-1550. Major storm beds are rare during the past 500 years BP.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2025

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California↗
USGS2011

Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32 000 km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC_RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC_RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC_RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction.

Journal of Flood Risk Management↗
USGS2015

Influence of ecological factors on prevalence of meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection in South Dakota, USA

The meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis ) is a nematode parasite that commonly infects white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ; WTD) throughout the deciduous forest biome and deciduous-coniferous ecotone of eastern and central North America; the species is not known to occur west of the grassland biome of central North America. We used county-specific prevalence data to evaluate potential effects of landscape and climatologic factors on the spatial distribution of meningeal worm infection in South Dakota, US. Probability of infection increased 4-fold between eastern and western South Dakota and 1.3-fold for each 1-cm increase in summer precipitation. Sixty-three percent of WTD had only a single worm in the cranium. Expansion of meningeal worm infection across western South Dakota may be inherently low due to the combined effects of arid climate and potential attributes of the Missouri River that limit regional movements by infected WTD. Use of landscape genetic analyses to identify potential relationships between landscape features and population genetic structure of infected deer and parasites may contribute to a greater understanding of regional heterogeneity in meningeal worm infection rates across South Dakota, particularly in counties adjacent to the Missouri River. Future research evaluating heterogeneity in prevalence and intensity of infection between fawn and yearling deer, and the potential role of yearling male deer as dispersal agents of meningeal worms across the Missouri River, also is warranted.

South Dakota↗
USGS2019

Freezing resistance, safety margins, and survival vary among big sagebrush populations across the western United States

Premise Physiological responses to temperature extremes are considered strong drivers of species’ demographic responses to climate variability. Plants are typically classified as either avoiders or tolerators in their freezing‐resistance mechanism, but a gradient of physiological‐threshold freezing responses may exist among individuals of a species. Moreover, adaptive significance of physiological freezing responses is poorly characterized, particularly under warming conditions that relax selection on cold hardiness. Methods Freezing responses were measured in winter and again for new foliage in spring for 14 populations of Artemisia tridentata collected throughout its range and planted in a warm common garden. The relationships of the freezing responses to survival were evaluated in the warm garden and in two colder gardens. Results Winter and spring freezing resistance were not correlated and appeared to be under differing selection regimes, as evident in correlations with different population climate of origin variables. All populations resisted considerably lower temperatures in winter than in spring, with populations from more continental climates showing narrower freezing safety margins (difference in temperatures at which ice‐nucleation occurs and 50% reduction in chlorophyll fluorescence occurs) in spring. Populations with greater winter freezing resistance had lower survivorship in the warmest garden, while populations with greater spring freezing resistance had lower survivorship in a colder garden. Conclusions These survivorship patterns relative to physiological thresholds suggest excess freezing resistance may incur a survival cost that likely relates to a trade‐off between carbon gain and freezing resistance during critical periods of moisture availability. This cost has implications for seed moved from cooler to warmer environments and for plants growing in warming environments.

American Journal of Botany↗