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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum ) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to understand the ecological and demographic mechanisms that underlie ongoing and predicted range shifts. We use nearly four decades of demographic monitoring for this threatened Hawaiian species, in combination with other biological, ecological and climate data to explore demographic responses across its entire range. We construct and independently validate population models for two elevation zones representing the species’ lower trailing and higher stable regions. Differences in population growth rate (lambda) between trailing and stable regions were influenced most strongly by lower survival of juvenile and small adult size classes, as well as by lower recruitment and lower survival of seedlings and large adults in the trailing region. Furthermore, seed production appears to have decreased from the 1980’s to present in the trailing region, and is now significantly less than in the stable region. Lambda and several underlying vital rates were significantly associated with wetter dry season conditions in the lower trailing region, indicating water limitation. In the higher elevation stable region, in contrast, lambda and vital rates were associated with warmer air temperatures, indicating cold limitation. These contrasting demographic patterns and climate dependencies lead to a high probability of extinction over the next century in the lower region, where most plants occur, but zero probability of the same in the higher region, according to stochastic population projections. Drier future scenarios further increase the probability of extinction at low elevations. The combined results illustrate the complexity in the demographic response and future viability that can occur across the range of a single species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2019

A range-wide model of contemporary, omnidirectional connectivity for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise

As habitat destruction leads to species extinctions globally, conservation planning that accounts for population-level connectivity and gene flow is an urgent priority. Models that only approximate habitat potential are incomplete because areas of high habitat potential may be isolated, whereas intermixed areas of lower habitat potential may still be critical for maintaining connectivity between and among populations. We developed a range-wide, omnidirectional (‘coreless’) connectivity model and map for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise at a high spatial resolution (30 m), based on empirical movement data and a circuit-theoretic approach to estimating connectivity. Specifically, we first estimated habitat potential (i.e., quality) for tortoise movement (as distinct from habitat potential more generally) across its range using hypotheses based on the published literature, linear mixed models, multiple environmental factors derived from remotely sensed data, and recent solar and wind development footprints. The resultant raster output was used to represent landscape conductance in a circuit-theoretic model of connectivity, which relates the flow of electrical current through a circuit to the movement of tortoises through the landscape. We then modeled potential connectivity across the range of the tortoise using Circuitscape software and the Julia numerical programming language. Intermediate distances from minor roads, intermediate values of annual average maximum temperature, and increasing density of desert washes were among the strongest predictors of movement habitat quality. There was also strong evidence for increased habitat quality for movement with increasing amounts of vegetation cover. The resulting connectivity model and map was determined to accurately reflect important areas for tortoise movement, but we encourage others to do their own evaluation of the model within local areas of interest and as more data become available. Accordingly, the map can provide an important component to improve management decisions that have the potential to influence the conservation of connected desert tortoise populations throughout the range.

California↗
USGS2023

Wherever I may roam—Human activity alters movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) across two continents

Human activity and associated landscape modifications alter the movements of animals with consequences for populations and ecosystems worldwide. Species performing long-distance movements are thought to be particularly sensitive to human impact. Despite the increasing anthropogenic pressure, it remains challenging to understand and predict animals' responses to human activity. Here we address this knowledge gap using 1206 Global Positioning System movement trajectories of 815 individuals from 14 red deer ( Cervus elaphus ) and 14 elk ( Cervus canadensis ) populations spanning wide environmental gradients, namely the latitudinal range from the Alps to Scandinavia in Europe, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in North America. We measured individual-level movements relative to the environmental context, or movement expression, using the standardized metric Intensity of Use, reflecting both the directionality and extent of movements. We expected movement expression to be affected by resource (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) predictability and topography, but those factors to be superseded by human impact. Red deer and elk movement expression varied along a continuum, from highly segmented trajectories over relatively small areas (high intensity of use), to directed transitions through restricted corridors (low intensity of use). Human activity (Human Footprint Index, HFI) was the strongest driver of movement expression, with a steep increase in Intensity of Use as HFI increased, but only until a threshold was reached. After exceeding this level of impact, the Intensity of Use remained unchanged. These results indicate the overall sensitivity of Cervus movement expression to human activity and suggest a limitation of plastic responses under high human pressure, despite the species also occurring in human-dominated landscapes. Our work represents the first comparison of metric-based movement expression across widely distributed populations of a deer genus, contributing to the understanding and prediction of animals' responses to human activity.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2018

A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era

This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2016

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2026

Early Pliocene (Zanclean) sea surface temperature for PlioMIP3

Paleoclimate researchers have been comparing Pliocene environmental data to paleoclimate model results since the 1980s. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) began in 2008 with a focus on the Late Pliocene. Here we assess the availability and utility of sea surface temperature (SST) data for verification of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP3) Early Pliocene (Zanclean) experiments. We analyze published data in terms of quantity and spatial distribution. Only SST estimates derived using alkenone paleo thermometry are reported, and all estimates are based upon the same temperature calibration. Sea surface temperature data are selected from within three distinct time intervals: The early Zanclean 5.3 Ma – 4.2 Ma time slab, and two time slices within the early Zanclean, chosen by PlioMIP3 at 4.870 Ma and 4.474 Ma. Results show the early Zanclean time slab contains 2055 individual estimates. Approximately ∼ 80% of these estimates come from Sites 609, 642, 846, 847, 882, 907, and 1146. There are 17 sites with a total of 42 estimates within the 4.474 Ma ±10 kyr time slice, and 15 sites with a total of 47 data points within the 4.870 Ma ±10 kyr interval. The sparse spatial and temporal distribution of Zanclean data, relative to the data available for the mid Piacenzian, makes point-by-point data model comparison suspect. We suggest interpreting model output against lower resolution long term trends in proxy data, and comparison of models through temperature gradients, may be the most useful application of currently available data. Integrating Zanclean age coastal plain sequences within data model comparison schemes, for increased understanding of regional climate impacts, also holds great potential.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2016

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m 3 /s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m 3 /s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m 3 /s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m 3 /s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS1998

Geospatial Technology Applications and Infrastructure in the Biological Resources Division

Executive Summary -- Automated spatial processing technology such as geographic information systems (GIS), telemetry, and satellite-based remote sensing are some of the more recent developments in the long history of geographic inquiry. For millennia, humankind has endeavored to map the Earth's surface and identify spatial relationships. But the precision with which we can locate geographic features has increased exponentially with satellite positioning systems. Remote sensing, GIS, thematic mapping, telemetry, and satellite positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) are tools that greatly enhance the quality and rapidity of analysis of biological resources. These technologies allow researchers, planners, and managers to more quickly and accurately determine appropriate strategies and actions. Researchers and managers can view information from new and varying perspectives using GIS and remote sensing, and GPS receivers allow the researcher or manager to identify the exact location of interest. These geospatial technologies support the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Resources Division (BRD) and the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) by providing a cost-effective and efficient method for collection, analysis, and display of information. The BRD mission is 'to work with others to provide the scientific understanding and technologies needed to support the sound management and conservation of our Nation's biological resources.' A major responsibility of the BRD is to develop and employ advanced technologies needed to synthesize, analyze, and disseminate biological and ecological information. As the Strategic Science Plan (BRD 1996) states, 'fulfilling this mission depends on effectively balancing the immediate need for information to guide management of biological resources with the need for technical assistance and long-range, strategic information to understand and predict emerging patterns and trends in ecological systems.' Information sharing plays a key role in nearly everything BRD does. The Strategic Science Plan discusses the need to (1) develop tools and standards for information transfer, (2) disseminate information, and (3) facilitate effective use of information. This effort centers around the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) and the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI), components of the National Information Infrastructure. The NBII and NSDI are distributed electronic networks of biological and geographical data and information, as well as tools to help users around the world easily find and retrieve the biological and geographical data and information they need. The BRD is responsible for developing scientifically and statistically reliable methods and protocols to assess the status and trends of the Nation's biological resources. Scientists also conduct important inventory and monitoring studies to maintain baseline information on these same resources. Research on those species for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has trust responsibilities (including endangered species and migratory species) involves laboratory and field studies of individual animals and the environments in which they live. Researchboth tactical and strategicis conducted at the BRD's 17 science centers and 81 field stations, 54 Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units in 40 states, and at 11 former Cooperative Park Study Units. Studies encompass fish, birds, mammals, and plants, as well as their ecosystems and the surrounding landscape. Biological Resources Division researchers use a variety of scientific tools in their endeavors to understand the causes of biological and ecological trends. Research results are used by managers to predict environmental changes and to help them take appropriate measures to manage resources effectively. The BRD Geospatial Technology Program facilitates the collection, analysis, and dissemination of data and informat

Information and Technology Report↗
USGS2015

Human activities cause distinct dissolved organic matter composition across freshwater ecosystems

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition in freshwater ecosystems is influenced by interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes that are controlled, at one level, by watershed landscape, hydrology, and their connections. Against this environmental template, humans may strongly influence DOM composition. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of DOM composition variation across freshwater ecosystems differentially affected by human activity. Using optical properties, we described DOM variation across five ecosystem groups of the Laurentian Great Lakes Region: large lakes, Kawartha Lakes, Experimental Lakes Area, urban stormwater ponds, and rivers (n = 184 sites). We determined how between ecosystem variation in DOM composition related to watershed size, land use and cover, water quality measures (conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrient concentration, chlorophyll a ), and human population density. The five freshwater ecosystem groups had distinctive DOM composition from each other. These significant differences were not explained completely through differences in watershed size nor spatial autocorrelation. Instead, multivariate partial least squares regression showed that DOM composition was related to differences in human impact across freshwater ecosystems. In particular, urban/developed watersheds with higher human population densities had a unique DOM composition with a clear anthropogenic influence that was distinct from DOM composition in natural land cover and/or agricultural watersheds. This nonagricultural, human developed impact on aquatic DOM was most evident through increased levels of a microbial, humic-like parallel factor analysis component (C6). Lotic and lentic ecosystems with low human population densities had DOM compositions more typical of clear water to humic-rich freshwater ecosystems but C6 was only present at trace to background levels. Consequently, humans are strongly altering the quality of DOM in waters nearby or flowing through highly populated areas, which may alter carbon cycles in anthropogenically disturbed ecosystems at broad scales.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS1999

Selected elements and organic chemicals in bed sediment and fish tissue of the Tualatin River basin, Oregon, 1992-96

A variety of elements and organic compounds have entered the environment as a result of human activities. Such substances find their way to aquatic sediments from direct discharges to waterways, atmospheric emissions, and runoff. Some of these chemicals are known to harm fish or wildlife, either by direct toxicity, by reducing viability, or by limiting reproductive success. In aquatic systems, sediments become the eventual sink for most of these chemicals. Analyzing the sediments provides a first step in a chemical inventory that can lead to an assessment of potential biological impacts (Kennicutt and others, 1994). Many elements (iron, aluminum, calcium, and others) enter the environment from the natural weathering of rock. Additional amounts of elements have been contributed by human activities such as mining, metals production and processing, fossil fuel combustion, municipal waste incineration, and transportationrelated sources. The environmental presence of some elements, such as lead and mercury, is almost entirely due to human activity. Lead is often associated with the use of leaded gasoline and from the manufacture and disposal of lead storage batteries. Mercury was used historically in a variety of industrial processes and as a pesticide. Nriagu and Pacyna (1998) concluded that human activity is the “most important element in the global biogeochemical cycling of the trace metals.” The number of organic compounds in existence and their total production has more than tripled in the last century. Many of these compounds enter the environment directly as pesticides; others are inadvertently discharged. Some organic compounds have natural sources. Three general classes of organic compounds will be discussed: organochlorine compounds, polyaromatic hydrocarbons, and phthalates. Almost all organochlorine compounds are manmade. Many are pesticides that were used widely in the 1950s–60s (DDT and chlordanes, for example). Use of most organochlorine pesticides was restricted or banned in the United States in the 1970s–80s. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are also organochlorine compounds; they were used for a variety of applications, but most commonly as insulators in electrical transformers and other equipment. In general, organochlorine compounds degrade very slowly in the environment and therefore, are routinely found in environmental samples, despite the fact that they are no longer used in the United States. They are hydrophobic that is they do not dissolve readily in water and, in aquatic systems, are almost exclusively associated with sediments or tissue. Because these compounds cause a variety of adverse health effects in wildlife, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has listed many as priority pollutants. Organochlorine compounds also have been implicated as endocrine disrupters— chemicals that can interfere with the normal function of hormones. Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are found in sediments throughout the world (Hites and others, 1980). Their presence is thought to be primarily anthropogenic. PAHs occur naturally in petroleum products and also are produced during combustion. They enter the environment from fuel spills, tar coatings, coal and other fossil fuel usage, road dust, and from the atmospheric deposition of combustion products (Prahl and others, 1984; Wakeham and others, 1980). Urban areas often have high concentrations of PAHs because of transportation-related sources (vehicle exhaust, paving materials, and releases of fuel or oil). Natural sources, such as forest fires, may contribute small amounts of PAHs. Several PAHs are known carcinogens (benzo[a]pyrene, for example); 16 are listed as USEPA priority pollutants. Phthalate compounds are often associated with urban areas. They are used in a wide variety of industrial applications and in inks, adhesives, resins, and as plasticizers (chemicals that increase the flexibility of plastics). In aquatic systems, phthalates are found mostly in sediments where they degrade very slowly. Phthalates are thought to be endocrine disrupters; Jobling and others (1995) found that some phthalates were weakly estrogenic. USEPA considers some phthalates to be possible carcinogens. This report describes the results of a reconnaissance survey of elements and organic compounds found in bed sediment and fish tissue in streams of the Tualatin River Basin. The basin is in northwestern Oregon to the west of the Portland metropolitan area (fig. 1). The Tualatin River flows for about 80 miles, draining an area of about 712 square miles, before it enters the Willamette River. Land use in the basin changes from mostly forested in the headwaters, to mixed forest and agriculture, to predominately urban. The basin supports a growing population of more than 350,000 people, most of whom live in lower parts of the basin. Water quality in the Tualatin River and its tributaries is expected to be affected by the increasing urbanization of the basin.

Oregon↗
USGS2005

Coral disease and health workshop: Coral histopathology II, July 12-14, 2005

The health and continued existence of coral reef ecosystems are threatened by an increasing array of environmental and anthropogenic impacts. Coral disease is one of the prominent causes of increased mortality among reefs globally, particularly in the Caribbean. Although over 40 different coral diseases and syndromes have been reported worldwide, only a few etiological agents have been confirmed; most pathogens remain unknown and the dynamics of disease transmission, pathogenicity and mortality are not understood. Causal relationships have been documented for only a few of the coral diseases, while new syndromes continue to emerge. Extensive field observations by coral biologists have provided substantial documentation of a plethora of new pathologies, but our understanding, however, has been limited to descriptions of gross lesions with names reflecting these observations (e.g., black band, white band, dark spot). To determine etiology, we must equip coral diseases scientists with basic biomedical knowledge and specialized training in areas such as histology, cell biology and pathology. Only through combining descriptive science with mechanistic science and employing the synthesis epizootiology provides will we be able to gain insight into causation and become equipped to handle the pending crisis. One of the critical challenges faced by coral disease researchers is to establish a framework to systematically study coral pathologies drawing from the field of diagnostic medicine and pathology and using generally accepted nomenclature. This process began in April 2004, with a workshop titled Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Developing Diagnostic Criteria co-convened by the Coral Disease and Health Consortium (CDHC), a working group organized under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, and the International Registry for Coral Pathology (IRCP). The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) in Madison, Wisconsin and was focused on gross morphology and disease signs observed in the field. A resounding recommendation from the histopathologists participating in the workshop was the urgent need to develop diagnostic criteria that are suitable to move from gross observations to morphological diagnoses based on evaluation of microscopic anatomy. As a continuation of building the foundation and framework for coral disease diagnostics, the CDHC convened the Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Coral Histopathology II in Charleston, South Carolina, July 11-14, 2005. The workshop was hosted by the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC which provided expertise, facilities and equipment in support of the workshop. All of the histological slides and related photographs used in the discussions were prepared and supplied by the IRCP. This workshop brought together 15 experts in veterinary and medical pathology and coral biology from national and international research institutes and government laboratories. The mission was to devise a standardized approach to examining microscopic anatomy and pathology of corals and a standardized nomenclature to facilitate accurate descriptions of the microscopic morphology of corals and enhance communication among specialists investigating causes of coral death. 2 The participants of this workshop deliberated for 3 days to refine the nomenclature for gross and microscopic anatomy of corals and systematically described microscopic changes associated with selected coral diseases. The findings and recommendations from the deliberations will be submitted to the research community for peer review. The standardized nomenclature and descriptions produced at this workshop will ultimately be made available to the scientific community through a variety of media including the World Wide Web. An exciting highlight of this meeting was provided by Professor Robert Ogilvie (MUSC Department of Cell Biology and Anatomy) when he introduced participants to a new digital technology that is revolutionizing histology and histopathology in the medical field. The Virtual Slide technology creates digital images of histological tissue sections by computer scanning actual slides in high definition and storing the images for retrieval and viewing. Virtual slides now allow any investigator with access to a computer and the web to view, search, annotate and comment on the same tissue sections in real time. Medical and veterinary slide libraries across the country are being converted into virtual slides to enhance biomedical education, research and diagnosis. The coral health and disease researchers at this workshop deem virtual slides as a significant way to increase capabilities in coral histology and a means for pathology consultations on coral disease cases on a global scale.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2013

Geology, water-quality, hydrology, and geomechanics of the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin, California, 2008--12

To assess the water resources of the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin in Santa Barbara County, California, a series of cooperative studies were undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Santa Barbara County Water Agency. Between 2008 and 2012, geologic, water-quality, hydrologic and geomechanical data were collected from selected sites throughout the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin. Geologic data were collected from three multiple-well groundwater monitoring sites and included lithologic descriptions of the drill cuttings, borehole geophysical logs, temperature logs, as well as bulk density and sonic velocity measurements of whole-core samples. Generalized lithologic characterization from the monitoring sites indicated the water-bearing units in the subsurface consist of unconsolidated to partly consolidated sand, gravel, silt, clay, and occasional cobbles within alluvial fan and stream deposits. Analysis of geophysical logs indicated alternating layers of finer- and coarser-grained material that range from less than 1 foot to more than 20 feet thick. On the basis of the geologic data collected, the principal water-bearing units beneath the monitoring-well sites were found to be composed of younger alluvium of Holocene age, older alluvium of Pleistocene age, and the Tertiary-Quaternary Morales Formation. At all three sites, the contact between the recent fill and younger alluvium is approximately 20 feet below land surface. Water-quality samples were collected from 12 monitoring wells, 27 domestic and supply wells, 2 springs, and 4 surface-water sites and were analyzed for a variety of constituents that differed by site, but, in general, included trace elements; nutrients; dissolved organic carbon; major and minor ions; silica; total dissolved solids; alkalinity; total arsenic and iron; arsenic, chromium, and iron species; and isotopic tracers, including the stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen, activities of tritium, and carbon-14 abundance. Of the 39 wells sampled, concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate from 38 and 37 well samples, respectively, were greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s secondary maximum contaminant levels. Concentrations greater than the maximum contaminant levels for nitrate were observed in five wells and were observed for arsenic in four wells. Differences in the stable-isotopic values of hydrogen and oxygen among groundwater samples indicated that water does not move freely between different formations or between different zones within the Cuyama Valley. Variations in isotopic composition indicated that recharge is derived from several different sources. The age of the groundwater, expressed as time since recharge, was between 600 and 38,000 years before present. Detectable concentrations of tritium indicated that younger water, recharged since the early 1950s, is present in parts of the groundwater basin. Hydrologic data were collected from 12 monitoring wells, 56 domestic and supply wells, 3 surface-water sites, and 4 rainfall-gaging stations. Rainfall in the valley averaged about 8 inches annually, whereas the mountains to the south received between 12 and 19 inches. Stream discharge records showed seasonal variability in surface-water flows ranging from no-flow to over 1,500 cubic feet per second. During periods when inflow to the valley exceeds outflow, there is potential recharge from stream losses to the groundwater system Water-level records included manual quarterly depth-to-water measurements collected from 68 wells, time-series data collected from 20 of those wells, and historic water levels from 16 wells. Hydrographs of the manual measurements showed declining water levels in 16 wells, mostly in the South-Main zone, and rising water levels in 14 wells, mostly in the Southern Ventucopa Uplands. Time-series hydrographs showed daily, seasonal, and longer-term effects associated with local pumping. Water-level data from the multiple-well monitoring sites indicated seasonal fluctuations as great as 80 feet and water-level differences between aquifers as great as 40 feet during peak pumping season. Hydrographs from the multiple-well groundwater monitoring sites showed vertical hydraulic gradients were upward during the winter months and downward during the irrigation season. Historic hydrographs showed water-level declines in the Southern-Main, Western Basin, Caliente Northern-Main, and Southern Sierra Madre zone ranging from 1 to 7 feet per year. Hydrographs of wells in the Southern Ventucopa Uplands zone showed several years with marked increases in water levels that corresponded to increased precipitation in the Cuyama Valley. Investigation of hydraulic properties included hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity estimated from aquifer tests performed on 63 wells. Estimates of horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from about 1.5 to 28 feet per day and decreased with depth. The median estimated hydraulic conductivity for the older alluvium was about five times that estimated for the Morales Formation. Estimates of transmissivity ranged from 560 to 163,400 gallons per day per foot and decreased with depth. The median estimated transmissivity for the younger alluvium was about three times that estimated for the older alluvium. Geomechanical analysis included land-surface elevation changes at five continuously operating global positioning systems (GPS) and land-subsidence detection at five interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) reference points. Analysis of data collected from continuously operating GPS stations showed the mountains to the south and west moved upward about 1 millimeter (mm) annually, whereas the station in the center of the Southern-Main zone moved downward more than 7 mm annually, indicating subsidence. It is likely that this subsidence is inelastic (permanent) deformation and indicates reduced storage capacity in the aquifer sediments. Analysis of InSAR data showed local and regional changes that appeared to be dependent, in part, on the time span of the interferogram, seasonal variations in pumping, and tectonic uplift. Long-term InSAR time series showed a total maximum detected subsidence rate of approximately 12 mm per year at one location and approximately 8 mm per year at a second location, while short-term InSAR time series showed maximum subsidence of about 15 mm at one location and localized maximum uplift of about 10 mm at another location.

California↗
USGS2013

Overview of groundwater quality in the Piceance Basin, western Colorado, 1946--2009

Groundwater-quality data from public and private sources for the period 1946 to 2009 were compiled and put into a common data repository for the Piceance Basin. The data repository is available on the web at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/cwqdr/Piceance/index.shtml. A subset of groundwater-quality data from the repository was compiled, reviewed, and checked for quality assurance for this report. The resulting dataset consists of the most recently collected sample from 1,545 wells, 1,007 (65 percent) of which were domestic wells. From those samples, the following constituents were selected for presentation in this report: dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, pH, major ions (chloride, sulfate, fluoride), trace elements (arsenic, barium, iron, manganese, selenium), nitrate, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, methane, and the stable isotopic compositions of water and methane. Some portion of recharge to most of the wells for which data were available was derived from precipitation (most likely snowmelt), as indicated by δ2H [H2O] and δ18O[H2O] values that plot along the Global Meteoric Water Line and near the values for snow samples collected in the study area. Ninety-three percent of the samples were oxic, on the basis of concentrations of dissolved oxygen that were greater than or equal to 0.5 milligrams per liter. Concentration data were compared with primary and secondary drinking-water standards established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Constituents that exceeded the primary standards were arsenic (13 percent), selenium (9.2 percent), fluoride (8.4 percent), barium (4.1 percent), nitrate (1.6 percent), and benzene (0.6 percent). Concentrations of toluene, xylenes, and ethylbenzene did not exceed standards in any samples. Constituents that exceeded the secondary standard were dissolved solids (72 percent), sulfate (37 percent), manganese (21 percent), iron (16 percent), and chloride (10 percent). Drinking-water standards have not been established for methane, which was detected in 24 percent of samples. Methane concentrations were greater than or equal to 1 milligram per liter in 8.5 percent of samples. Methane isotopic data for samples collected primarily from domestic wells in Garfield County indicate that methane in samples with relative high methane concentrations were derived from both biogenic and thermogenic sources. Many of the constituents that exceeded standards, such as arsenic, fluoride, iron, and manganese, were derived from rock and sediment in aquifers. Elevated nitrate concentrations were most likely derived from human sources such as fertilizer and human or animal waste. Information about the geologic unit or aquifer in which a well was completed generally was not provided by data sources. However, limited data indicate that Quaternary deposits in Garfield and Mesa Counties, the Wasatch Formation in Garfield County, and the Green River Formation in Rio Blanco County had some of the highest median concentrations of selected constituents. Variations in concentration with depth could not be evaluated because of the general lack of well-depth and water-level data. Concentrations of several important constituents, such as arsenic, manganese, methane, and nitrate, were related to concentrations of dissolved oxygen. Concentrations of arsenic, manganese, and methane were significantly higher in groundwater with low dissolved-oxygen concentrations than in groundwater with high dissolved-oxygen concentrations. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate were significantly higher in groundwater with high dissolved-oxygen concentrations than in groundwater with low dissolved-oxygen concentrations. These results indicate that measurements of dissolved oxygen may be a useful indicator of groundwater vulnerability to some human-derived contaminants and enrichment from some natural constituents. Assessing such a large and diverse dataset as the one available through the repository poses unique challenges for reporting on groundwater quality in the study area. The repository contains data from several studies that differed widely in purpose and scope. In addition to this variability in available data, gaps exist spatially, temporally, and analytically in the repository. For example, groundwater-quality data in the repository were not evenly distributed throughout the study area. Several key water-quality constituents or indicators, such as dissolved oxygen, were underrepresented in the repository. Ancillary information, such as well depth, depth to water, and the geologic unit or aquifer in which a well was completed, was missing for more than 50 percent of samples. Future monitoring could avoid several limitations of the repository by making relatively minor changes to sample- collection and data-reporting protocols. Field measurements for dissolved oxygen could be added to sampling protocols, for example. Information on well construction and the geologic unit or aquifer in which a well was completed should be part of the water-quality dataset. Such changes would increase the comparability of data from different monitoring programs and also add value to each program individually and to that of the regional dataset as a whole. Other changes to monitoring programs could require greater resources, such as sampling for a basic set of constituents that is relevant to major water-quality issues in the regional study area. Creation of such a dataset for the regional study area would help to provide the kinds of information needed to characterize background conditions and the spatial and temporal variability in constituent concentrations associated with those conditions. Without such information, it is difficult to identify departures from background that might be associated with human activities.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios

Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. Changes in streamflow patterns in conjunction with sea-level rise may change the salinity-intrusion dynamics of coastal rivers. Several municipal water-supply intakes are located along the Georgia and South Carolina coast that are proximal to the present day saltwater-freshwater interface of tidal rivers. Increases in the extent of salinity intrusion resulting from climate change could threaten the availability of freshwater supplies in the vicinity of these intakes. To effectively manage these supplies, water-resource managers need estimates of potential changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of salinity intrusion near their water-supply intakes that may occur as a result of climate change. This study examines potential effects of climate change, including altered streamflow and sea-level rise, on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion near municipal water-supply intakes in two coastal areas. One area consists of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) and the Waccamaw River near Myrtle Beach along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast, and the second area is on or near the lower Savannah River near Savannah, Georgia. The study evaluated how future sea-level rise and a reduction in streamflows can potentially affect salinity intrusion and threaten municipal water supplies and the biodiversity of freshwater tidal marshes in these two areas. Salinity intrusion occurs as a result of the interaction between three principal forces—streamflow, mean coastal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze and simulate salinity dynamics at critical coastal gaging stations near four municipal water-supply intakes, various data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were used to evaluate hourly streamflow, salinity, and coastal water-level data collected over a period exceeding 10 years. The ANN models were trained (calibrated) to learn the specific interactions that cause salinity intrusions, and resulting models were able to accurately simulate historical salinity dynamics in both study areas. Changes in sea level and streamflow quantity and timing can be simulated by the salinity intrusion models to evaluate various climate-change scenarios. The salinity intrusion models for the study areas are deployed in a decision support system to facilitate the use of the models for management decisions by coastal water-resource managers. The report describes the use of the salinity-intrusion models decision support system to evaluate salinity-intrusion dynamics for various climate-change scenarios, including incremental increases in sea level in combination with incremental decreases in streamflow. Operation of municipal water-treatment plants is problematic when the specific-conductance values for source water are greater than 1,000 to 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter (µS/cm). High specific-conductance values contribute to taste problems that require treatment. Data from a gage downstream from a municipal water intake indicate specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm about 5.4 percent of the time over the 14-year period from August 1995 to August 2008. Simulations of specific conductance at this gaging station that incorporates sea-level rises resulted in a doubling of the exceedances to 11.0 percent for a 1-foot increase and 17.6 percent for a 2-foot increase. The frequency of intrusion of water with specific conductance values of 1,000 µS/cm was less sensitive to incremental reductions in streamflow than to incremental increases in sea level. Simulations of conditions associated with a 10-percent reduction in streamflow, in combination with a 1-foot rise in sea level, increased the percentage of time specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm at this site from 11.0 to 13.3 percent, and a 20-percent reduction in streamflow increased the percentage of time to 16.6 percent. Precipitation and temperature data from a global circulation model were used, after scale adjustments, as input to a watershed model of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River basin, which flows into the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway study area in South Carolina. The simulated streamflow for historical conditions and projected climate change in the future was used as input for the ANN model in decision support system. Results of simulations incorporating climate-change projections for alterations in streamflow indicate an increase in the frequency of salinity-intrusion events and a shift in the seasonal occurrence of the intrusion events from the summer to the fall.

South Carolina↗
USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗
USGS2017

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas , which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates ( r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years ( r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2023

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species’ ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. Methods We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? Review findings We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). Conclusions Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Journal of Environmental Evidence↗