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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

State‐space modelling of the flight behaviour of a soaring bird provides new insights to migratory strategies

Characterising the spatiotemporal variation of animal behaviour can elucidate the way individuals interact with their environment and allocate energy. Increasing sophistication of tracking technologies paired with novel analytical approaches allows the characterisation of movement dynamics even when an individual is not directly observable. In this study, high‐resolution movement data collected via global positioning system (GPS) tracking in three dimensions were paired with topographical information and used in a Bayesian state‐space model to describe the flight modes of migrating golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in eastern North America. Our model identified five functional behavioural states, two of which were previously undescribed variations on thermal soaring. The other states comprised gliding, perching and orographic soaring. States were discriminated by movement features in the horizontal (step length and turning angle) and vertical (change in altitude) planes and by the association with ridgelines promoting wind deflection. Tracked eagles spent 2%, 31%, 38%, 9% and 20% of their daytime in directed thermal soaring, gliding, convoluted thermal soaring, perching and orographic soaring, respectively. The analysis of the relative occurrence of these flight modes highlighted yearly, seasonal, age, individual and sex differences in flight strategy and performance. Particularly, less energy‐efficient orographic soaring was more frequent in autumn, when thermals were less available. Adult birds were also better at optimising energy efficiency than subadults. Our approach represents the first example of a state‐space model for bird flight mode using altitude data in conjunction with horizontal locations and is applicable to other flying organisms where similar data are available. The ability to describe animal movements in a three‐dimensional habitat is critical to advance our understanding of the functional processes driving animals’ decisions.

Functional Ecology↗

Activity patterns of Hawaiian forest birds in a fragmented and continuous landscape

Activity patterns are a key component of avian life history and behavior, and decisions about how activity periods are structured can have important fitness implications. Despite the importance of activity patterns, individual variability in activity is poorly studied in small birds. We used automated radio telemetry to track Hawaiian forest birds from three dietary guilds in a continuous forest, and in a similar forest that was naturally fragmented in the 1800s by lava flows but supports stable populations of native birds. We generated kernel density profiles of activity (KDEs) over the full tracking period of each bird and used the KDEs to derive seven activity metrics that characterized daily activity patterns. We identified three distinct activity strategies using a cluster analysis of the activity metrics and assessed day-to-day variability in activity strategy to understand intraindividual consistency in activity behavior. We also evaluated the influence of landscape structure, dietary guild and sex on the suite of activity metrics using constrained ordination. Most birds (61%) exhibited high levels of sustained activity throughout the day, while 23% showed irregular activity most of the day followed by a peak in the late afternoon, and 16% were mainly active in the morning. Though activity patterns varied by sex and dietary guild, landscape structure had the strongest influence on activity patterns. Birds sustained high levels of activity throughout the day in the fragmented landscape regardless of dietary guild, suggesting they needed to be more active to obtain necessary resources. However, activity patterns of birds in the fragmented landscape varied more day-to-day, indicating they retained a method for adjusting behavior to match internal and external conditions. This study reveals how a diverse suite of tropical birds has adapted to long-term fragmentation in Hawaiʻi and demonstrates the utility of automated radio telemetry for studying the activity strategies of birds.

Hawaii↗

Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other rescuers could find persons trapped in attics and porches. They also delivered food and water to residents stranded along the lower Mississippi River for several days. That work is reported in chapter 3 of this volume. A great number of scientists contributed to this peer-reviewed report designed for a general audience. Because they work for USGS—an unbiased, multidisciplinary science organization that focuses on biology, geography, geology, geospatial information, and water—they are dedicated to the timely, relevant, and impartial study of the landscape and natural resources of the Nation, as well as natural hazards, like hurricanes, that threaten the Nation. To learn more about their work, visit the USGS Web site (www.usgs.gov).

Circular↗

Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short- versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Wyoming↗

Trends in streamflow and comparisons with instream flows in the lower Puyallup River basin, Washington

The Puyallup Tribe of Indians is interested in better understanding the water resources of the lower Puyallup River Basin in order to ensure sufficient water to meet Tribal and hatchery needs and make future water-resource decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puyallup Tribe, conducted a study to identify trends in streamflow in the lower Puyallup River Basin and to compare streamflows in the Puyallup River with regulatory minimum instream flows. Daily mean streamflow, monthly mean streamflow for October, and annual mean streamflow records from 1980 through 2001 for two gaging stations on the lower Puyallup River and one each on Clarks Creek and Swan Creek in the lower Puyallup River Basin were analyzed for temporal trends. Daily mean streamflow records were divided into data sets for the wet period (November through June) and the dry period (July through October) for analysis. Annual precipitation records from three National Weather Service stations and ground-water-level records from five wells in the lower Puyallup River Basin were analyzed to determine possible relations with streamflow. Daily mean streamflow, daily minimum streamflow, and unit-streamflow records for the Puyallup River for 1991 and 1992 were evaluated for the instream-flow analysis. Significant temporal trends were not identified in daily mean streamflow records from the Puyallup River, Clarks Creek, or Swan Creek for the period of analysis. Trend analysis of monthly mean streamflow records for October at two gaging stations on the Puyallup River also indicated no significant trends for the period of analysis. Temporal trends were not evident in precipitation data from weather stations in the basin. A trend of decreasing depth to ground water with time (1995 through 1997) was identified in one well (20N/04E-34G01). This well is drilled to about 550 feet below land surface, and variations in water levels at this depth likely do not affect streamflow in the Puyallup River. Data limitations prevented the evaluation of possible correlations between streamflow in the Puyallup River and water use and land use in the study basin. Daily mean, daily minimum, and unit-streamflow values were evaluated to determine how each measure of streamflow compared with instream-flow values. The occurrence of excursions (streamflow below the instream-flow value) was greatest when unit-streamflow values were compared with instream-flow values. The use of daily mean streamflow records may underestimate the occurrence of excursions under certain streamflow conditions. The unit-streamflow hydrograph for the Puyallup River at Puyallup exhibits a distinct, regular pattern. The hydrograph closely mimics the hydrograph at Lake Tapps Diversion, on the White River, a tributary of the Puyallup River, which is the outflow from a power plant, suggesting that the power-plant outflow affects streamflow in the Puyallup River. Streamflow entering Lake Tapps through the White River Canal does not exhibit the same pattern as the Puyallup River or diversion. The influence of the White River Canal on streamflow in the Puyallup River appears to be obscured by operation of the Lake Tapps Diversion.

Washington↗

Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short-versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Wyoming↗

Establishing the foundation for the global observing system for marine life

Maintaining healthy, productive ecosystems in the face of pervasive and accelerating human impacts including climate change requires globally coordinated and sustained observations of marine biodiversity. Global coordination is predicated on an understanding of the scope and capacity of existing monitoring programs, and the extent to which they use standardized, interoperable practices for data management. Global coordination also requires identification of gaps in spatial and ecosystem coverage, and how these gaps correspond to management priorities and information needs. We undertook such an assessment by conducting an audit and gap analysis from global databases and structured surveys of experts. Of 371 survey respondents, 203 active, long-term (>5 years) observing programs systematically sampled marine life. These programs spanned about 7% of the ocean surface area, mostly concentrated in coastal regions of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. Seagrasses, mangroves, hard corals, and macroalgae were sampled in 6% of the entire global coastal zone. Two-thirds of all observing programs offered accessible data, but methods and conditions for access were highly variable. Our assessment indicates that the global observing system is largely uncoordinated which results in a failure to deliver critical information required for informed decision-making such as, status and trends, for the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and provision of ecosystem services. Based on our study, we suggest four key steps that can increase the sustainability, connectivity and spatial coverage of biological Essential Ocean Variables in the global ocean: (1) sustaining existing observing programs and encouraging coordination among these; (2) continuing to strive for data strategies that follow FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable); (3) utilizing existing ocean observing platforms and enhancing support to expand observing along coasts of developing countries, in deep ocean basins, and near the poles; and (4) targeting capacity building efforts. Following these suggestions could help create a coordinated marine biodiversity observing system enabling ecological forecasting and better planning for a sustainable use of ocean resources.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Knowledge sharing for shared success in the decade on ecosystem restoration

The Decade on Ecosystem Restoration aims to provide the means and incentives for upscaling restoration efforts worldwide. Although ecosystem restoration is a broad, interdisciplinary concept, effective ecological restoration requires sound ecological knowledge to successfully restore biodiversity and ecosystem services in degraded landscapes. We emphasize the critical role of knowledge and data sharing to inform synthesis for the most robust restoration science possible. Such synthesis is critical for helping restoration ecologists better understand how context affects restoration outcomes, and to increase predictive capacity of restoration actions. This predictive capacity can help to provide better information for evidence-based decision-making, and scale-up approaches to meet ambitious targets for restoration. We advocate for a concerted effort to collate species-level, fine-scale, ecological community data from restoration studies across a wide range of environmental and ecological gradients. Well-articulated associated metadata relevant to experience and social or landscape contexts can further be used to explain outcomes. These data could be carefully curated and made openly available to the restoration community to help to maximize evidence-based knowledge sharing, enable flexible re-use of existing data and support predictive capacity in ecological community responses to restoration actions. We detail how integrated data, analysis and knowledge sharing via synthesis can support shared success in restoration ecology by identifying successful and unsuccessful outcomes across diverse systems and scales. We also discuss potential interdisciplinary solutions and approaches to overcome challenges associated with bringing together subfields of restoration practice. Sharing this knowledge and data openly can directly inform actions and help to improve outcomes for the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

U.S. Geological Survey middle Rio Grande basin study; proceedings of the third annual workshop, Albuquerque, New Mexico, February 24-25, 1999

Approximately 40 percent (about 600,000 people) of the total population of New Mexico lives within the Middle Rio Grande Basin, which includes the City of Albuquerque. Ongoing analyses of the central portion of the Middle Rio Grande Basin by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Albuquerque and other agencies have shown that ground water in the basin is not as readily accessible as earlier studies indicated. A more complete characterization of the ground-water resources of the entire Middle Rio Grande Basin is hampered by a scarcity of data in the northern and southern areas of the basin. The USGS Middle Rio Grande Basin study is a 5-year effort by the USGS and other agencies to improve the understanding of the hydrology, geology, and land-surface characteristics of the Middle Rio Grande Basin. The primary objective of this study is to improve the understanding of the water resources of the basin. Of particular interest is to determine the extent of hydrologic connection between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer. Additionally, ground-water quality affects the availability of water supplies in the basin. Improving the existing USGS-constructed ground-water flow model of the Middle Rio Grande Basin will integrate all the various tasks that improve our knowledge of the various components of the Middle Rio Grande water budget. Part of this improvement will be accompanied by extended knowledge of the aquifer system beyond the Albuquerque area into the northern and southern reaches of the basin. Other improvements will be based on understanding gained through process-oriented research and improved geologic characterization of the deposits. The USGS and cooperating agencies will study the hydrology, geology, and land-surface characteristics of the basin to provide the scientific information needed for water-resources management and for managers to plan for water supplies needed for a growing population. To facilitate exchange of information among the scientists working on the Middle Rio Grande Basin study, yearly technical meetings have been held for each of the first 3 years of the anticipated 5-year study. These meetings provide an opportunity to present research results and plan new field efforts. This report documents the results of research presented at the third annual technical workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, February 24-25, 1999. The report is organized into this introduction and five chapters that focus on Middle Rio Grande Basin study investigations in progress in the Middle Rio Grande Basin. The first chapter describes geographic data and analysis efforts in the basin. The second chapter details work being done on the hydrogeologic and geologic framework of the basin. The third chapter describes studies on ground-water recharge in the basin. The fourth chapter provides details on the research on the ground-water flow system in the basin, including modeling efforts. The fifth chapter is devoted to an overview of New Mexico District Cooperative Program studies in the basin. The information in this report presents preliminary results of an evolving study. As the study progresses and individual projects publish their results in more detail, the USGS hopes to expand the scientific basis needed for management decisions regarding the Middle Rio Grande Basin.

Open-File Report↗

Movement and habitat use of sika and white-tailed deer on Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland

This research project was conducted to describe habitat use of sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and possibly attribute the effects of ungulate herbivory to specific deer species, if spatial separation in habitat use could be identified. Sturm (2007) conducted an exclosure study to document the effect of feral horse ( Equus caballus ) herbivory, deer herbivory, and horse and deer herbivory combined on plant communities. Sturm (2007) found that ungulate herbivory reduced plant species richness, evenness, and diversity in the maritime forest and affected species composition in all habitats studied. Sturm (2007) also found that herbivory on some species could be directly attributable to either horse or deer. However, the effects of sika and white-tailed deer herbivory could not be separated via an exclosure study design because of the difficulty of passively excluding one deer species but not the other. We captured white-tailed deer and sika deer in January–March of 2006 and 2007 throughout the Maryland portion of Assateague Island. Deer were fitted with radio-collars and their survival and locations monitored via ground telemetry. Up to four locations were acquired per deer each week during early (May–June) and late (August–September) growth periods for vegetation on the island. Also, we estimated deer locations during a dormant vegetation period (November– December 2006). We used these data to estimate survival and harvest rates, document movements, and model habitat use. We captured and fitted 50 deer with radio-collars over the course of the study. Of these 50 deer, 36 were sika and 14 were white-tailed deer. Of the 36 sika deer, 10 were harvested, three were likely killed by hunters but not recovered, and one died of natural causes while giving birth. Of the 14 white-tailed deer, three were harvested, one was illegally killed, and two were censored because of study-related mortality. Annual survival was 0.48 (95% CI = 0.16–0.82) for male white-tailed deer, 0.74 (95% CI = 0.44–0.91) for female white-tailed deer, 0.56 (95% CI = 0.35–0.75) for male sika deer, and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.70–0.94) for female sika deer. The harvest rate was 0.12 (95% CI = 0.04–0.27) for female sika deer, 0.44 (95% CI = 0.25–0.65) for male sika deer, 0.18 (95% CI = 0.05–0.51) for female white-tailed deer, and 0.38 (95% CI = 0.10–0.78) for male white-tailed deer. Annual survival rates for both species were similar to what has been observed in other populations. Unfortunately, small sample sizes for male white-tailed deer limited inferences about harvest and survival rates, but harvest rates of females for both species were similar to other published studies. Hunting was the primary cause of mortality, and outside the hunting season survival was 0.98–1.00 for all species and sexes. We found that the home range area of sika deer was much greater than the home range area of white-tailed deer, but failed to detect any difference between sexes or among seasons. Sika deer also made long-distance movements and left the Maryland portion of Assateague Island. No sika deer left Assateague island during our study, but we did document the dispersal of a male whitetailed deer to the mainland. In their native range, sika deer have been able to readily expand populations and occupy vacant habitat (Kaji et al. 2000; Kaji et al. 2004). The long distance movements we observed on Assateague Island, especially relative to white-tailed deer, may reflect the ability of this species to exploit food resources that may be limited in quality or quantity, or both. However, we did not collect data to assess use of food resources by sika deer and whether this may have influenced long distance movements. We found both species of deer were less likely to use a habitat the further it was located from cover, which was defined as tall shrub or forest vegetation. For every 10 m (32 ft) from cover each species of deer was 1.23–1.38 times less likely to use any given habitat. Patterns in use of vegetation classes were similar across species and seasons. Relative to forest habitat, both species avoided dune herbaceous, disturbed lands, sand, and water categories. Both species neither avoided nor preferred developed herbaceous, low shrub, marsh herbaceous, and tall shrub categories compared to the forest category. However, there were consistent differences between the two species. During spring, white-tailed deer were more likely than sika deer to use forested, tall shrub, disturbed herbaceous, and sand areas, but were less likely to use all other habitats. During summer, habitat use was similar between the two species except that white-tailed deer tended to use forested habitat more. During winter, white-tailed deer were less likely to use dune herbaceous, low shrub, and forested habitats than sika deer. Sturm (2007) identified differential browsing on plant species between horses and deer, but his experimental design did not permit detection of differential browsing between sika and whitetailed deer. Our study of habitat use did not provide information to identify plant species that may be differentially consumed by sika and white-tailed deer based on differences in habitat use. We envision two approaches to addressing the effects of deer browsing. One approach would be further research that identifies the food habits of both deer species at the plant species level. This would be similar to food habits research conducted by Keiper (1985) and others or could involve direct observation of food consumption by both species. However, both fecal analysis and direct observation would be time-consuming and not guaranteed to identify differences. If the goal of ungulate population management is to protect the island ecosystem, another approach involving manipulation of deer abundance and monitoring the response of plant species known to be preferentially consumed by deer would be a more direct method of assessing effects of deer herbivory (Sturm 2007). Moreover, such an approach is not predicated on detecting differences between deer species. Direct manipulation of deer abundance could be incorporated into an adaptive management program (Williams et al. 2007) and may provide greater benefits to the management of ASIS in the long term. Harvest management decisions for white-tailed deer and sika deer are made on an ongoing basis and by coupling these decisions with a vegetative monitoring program it may be possible to reduce or minimize adverse effects of ungulate herbivory. Furthermore, management of feral horses could be incorporated into the decision process.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Detecting volcanic deformation in Hawaii using trustworthy multimodal deep learning techniques

Monitoring volcanoes involves a variety of data sources and methods to maintain complete continuity of coverage. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) are commonly used complementary methods to assess the deformation state of a volcano as magma migrates beneath the surface. The amount of data these methods produce, however, is growing rapidly beyond human analysis capabilities and is becoming difficult to manage. Here, we create a novel multimodal deep learning framework to ingest InSAR and GNSS data simultaneously and classify the deformation state of the system. We apply this methodology to Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i given its wealth of InSAR and GNSS data as well as its propensity to deform on multiple timescales. Our model performs with high accuracy and is able to identify both slow and fast deformation from 2015 to 2023. The multimodal nature of our model also allows us to identify the presence of atmospheric noise in InSAR data. Furthermore, we employ explainability algorithms to show that our model is making decisions for the right reasons and to connect complex black-box machine learning mappings to current real-world geodetic interpretations of the Mauna Loa magmatic system.

Hawaii↗

Evaluation of an impulse-response emulator for groundwater contaminant transport modeling

There is a significant need to develop decision support tools capable of delivering accurate representations of environmental conditions, such as ground and surface water solute concentrations, in a timely and computationally efficient manner. Such tools can be leveraged to assess a large number of potential management strategies for mitigating non-point source pollutants. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the impulse-response emulation approach to approximate process-based groundwater model estimates of solute transport from MODFLOW and MT3D over a wide range of model inputs and parameters, with the goal of assessing where in parameter space the assumptions underlying this emulation approach are valid. The impulse-response emulator was developed using the sensitivity analysis utilities in the PEST++ software suite and is capable of approximating MODFLOW/MT3D estimates of solute transport over a large portion of the parameter space tested, except in cases where the Courant number is above 0.5. Across all runs tested, the highest percent errors were at the plume fronts. These results suggest that the impulse-response approach may be suitable for emulation of solute transport models for a wide range of cases, except when high-resolution outputs are needed, or when very low concentrations at plume edges are of particular interest.

Groundwater↗

Simulation of flow and habitat conditions under ice, Cache la Poudre River - January 2006

The U.S. Forest Service authorizes the occupancy and use of Forest Service lands by various projects, including water storage facilities, under the Federal Land Policy and Management Act. Federal Land Policy and Management Act permits can be renewed at the end of their term. The U.S. Forest Service analyzes the environmental effects for the initial issuance or renewal of a permit and the terms and conditions (for example, mitigations plans) contained in the permit for the facilities. The U.S. Forest Service is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) to determine the conditions for the occupancy and use for Long Draw Reservoir on National Forest System administered lands. The scope of the EIS includes evaluating current operations and effects to fish habitat of an ongoing winter release of 0.283 m3 /s (10 ft3 /s) from headwater reservoirs as part of a previously issued permit. The field conditions observed during this study included this release. The U.S. Forest Service entered into an interagency agreement (05-IA-11021000-030) with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center to perform analysis of fish habitat and flow relationships in the Cache la Poudre River during winter ice-over conditions using a twodimensional hydrodynamic model. The U.S. Forest Service selected the Fort Collins Science Center for this task because of their expertise in developing two-dimensional hydraulic models for habitat modeling applications. This report transmits model results to the U.S. Forest Service to analyze the effects of alternative flow scenarios at a site on the mainstem Cache la Poudre River in Larimer County, Colorado, near Kinikinik (40° 42' 44.16" N. lat, 105° 44' 30.70" W. log), as shown in figure 1. It will be used in pending environmental analyses and decisions for the occupancy and use of the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest by water storage facilities. The water management scenarios of interest in this study are related to releasing water from Chambers and Barnes Meadows Reservoirs, based on the assumption that winter flow augmentation can increase potential fish habitat. Figure 2 shows the relationship between Chambers, Barnes Meadows, and Long Draw Reservoirs. At the time this study was proposed, existing flow simulation results showed that the channel constraints imposed by existing artificial low-head dikes would have little or no effect on the hydrodynamics of the river at the low flow levels that were to be evaluated. The Kinikinik study site contains deep pools, riffles, and runs. This diversity of habitat types made it ideal for assessing the effects of altered flow on fish habitat under ice in the main stem Cache la Poudre River. Thus, the Kinikinik site was selected for this study of winter habitat conditions. The preexisting topographic and hydrologic data collected at this site enabled data collection efforts for this study to focus on describing streamflow and ice cover during the winter months. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, River2D (Steffler and Blackburn, 2002), was used to simulate flow conditions under the ice cover that was observed January 24, 2006. The objectives of this study are (1) to describe the extent and thickness of ice cover, (2) simulate depth and velocity under ice at the study site for observed and reduced flows, and (3) to quantify fish habitat in this portion of the mainstem Cache la Poudre River for the current winter release schedule as well as for similar conditions without the 0.283 m 3 /s winter release.

Colorado↗

Genetic analysis of North American Phragmites australis guides management approaches

Phragmites australis subsp. australis is an invasive and ecologically detrimental plant in multiple regions of North America. Its co-occurrence with the native subspecies, and multiple instances of hybridization, has created the need to differentiate Phragmites subspecies or haplotypes so that management can be appropriately targeted to the invader. We compiled a review of current genetic discrimination methods among the three Phragmites subspecies inhabiting the United States and Canada, and discussed how each method can contribute to control of the introduced subspecies while preserving the two endemic subspecies. We also discussed various control tools and the implications of Phragmites genetics for implementation. The Phragmites subspecies endemic to North America have environmental or infrastructure significance (e.g., habitat sustainability, biodiversity, storm surge and erosion protection). Thus, faster and more accurate differentiation among the endemic and introduced subspecies is needed. Additionally, more in-depth genetic information on Phragmites subspecies could support better management decisions, as well as the development of improved control treatments. This review highlights technologies and approaches currently available for genetic identification, recently collected genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic information, and implications for biological control and herbicide treatments.

Aquatic Botany↗

Statistical Approaches to Interpretation of Local, Regional, and National Highway-Runoff and Urban-Stormwater Data

Decision makers need viable methods for the interpretation of local, regional, and national-highway runoff and urban-stormwater data including flows, concentrations and loads of chemical constituents and sediment, potential effects on receiving waters, and the potential effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs). Valid (useful for intended purposes), current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models are needed to interpret data collected in field studies, to support existing highway and urban-runoffplanning processes, to meet National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) requirements, and to provide methods for computation of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) systematically and economically. Historically, conceptual, simulation, empirical, and statistical models of varying levels of detail, complexity, and uncertainty have been used to meet various data-quality objectives in the decision-making processes necessary for the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways and for other land-use applications. Water-quality simulation models attempt a detailed representation of the physical processes and mechanisms at a given site. Empirical and statistical regional water-quality assessment models provide a more general picture of water quality or changes in water quality over a region. All these modeling techniques share one common aspect-their predictive ability is poor without suitable site-specific data for calibration. To properly apply the correct model, one must understand the classification of variables, the unique characteristics of water-resources data, and the concept of population structure and analysis. Classifying variables being used to analyze data may determine which statistical methods are appropriate for data analysis. An understanding of the characteristics of water-resources data is necessary to evaluate the applicability of different statistical methods, to interpret the results of these techniques, and to use tools and techniques that account for the unique nature of water-resources data sets. Populations of data on stormwater-runoff quantity and quality are often best modeled as logarithmic transformations. Therefore, these factors need to be considered to form valid, current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models. Regression analysis is an accepted method for interpretation of water-resources data and for prediction of current or future conditions at sites that fit the input data model. Regression analysis is designed to provide an estimate of the average response of a system as it relates to variation in one or more known variables. To produce valid models, however, regression analysis should include visual analysis of scatterplots, an examination of the regression equation, evaluation of the method design assumptions, and regression diagnostics. A number of statistical techniques are described in the text and in the appendixes to provide information necessary to interpret data by use of appropriate methods. Uncertainty is an important part of any decisionmaking process. In order to deal with uncertainty problems, the analyst needs to know the severity of the statistical uncertainty of the methods used to predict water quality. Statistical models need to be based on information that is meaningful, representative, complete, precise, accurate, and comparable to be deemed valid, up to date, and technically supportable. To assess uncertainty in the analytical tools, the modeling methods, and the underlying data set, all of these components need be documented and communicated in an accessible format within project publications.

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of streamflow and selected water-quality constituents through a model of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York — A guide to model application

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Onondaga Lake basin in Onondaga County, N.Y., was developed during 2003-07 to assist water-resources managers in making basin-wide management decisions that could affect peak flows and the water quality of tributaries to Onondaga Lake. The model was developed with the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and was designed to allow simulation of proposed or hypothetical land-use changes, best-management practices (BMPs), and instream stormwater-detention basins such that their effects on flows and loads of suspended sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, ammonia, organic nitrogen, and nitrate could be analyzed. Extreme weather conditions, such as intense storms and prolonged droughts, can be simulated through manipulation of the precipitation record. Model results obtained from different scenarios can then be compared and analyzed through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). Background information on HSPF and GenScn is presented to familiarize the user with these two programs. Step-by-step examples are provided on (1) the creation of land-use, BMP, and stormflow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the analysis of simulation results through GenScn.

New York↗

The dream and the reality: Meeting decision-making time frames while incorporating ecosystem and economic models into management strategy evaluation

Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) in the Northwest Atlantic have been managed with interim harvest control rules (HCRs). A stakeholder-driven management strategy evaluation (MSE) was conducted that incorporated a broad range of objectives. The MSE process was completed within 1 year. Constant catch, conditional constant catch, and a biomass-based (BB) HCR with a 15% restriction on the interannual change in the quota could achieve more stable yields than BB HCRs without such restrictions, but could not attain as high of yields and resulted in more negative outcomes for terns ( Sterna hirundo ; a predator of herring). A similar range of performance could be achieved by applying a BB HCR annually every 3 years or every 5 years. Predators (i.e., dogfish ( Squalus acanthias ), bluefin tuna ( Thunnus thynnus ), and terns) were generally insensitive to the range of HCRs. While median net revenues were sensitive to some HCRs, time series analysis suggests that most HCRs produced a stable equilibrium of net revenue. To meet management needs, some aspects of the simulations were less than might be considered scientifically ideal, but using “models of intermediate complexity” were informative for managers and formed a foundation for future improvements.

Northwest Atlantic↗

Developing a landscape‐scale, multi‐species, and cost‐efficient conservation strategy for imperilled aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin, USA

Strategic conservation of imperilled species faces several major challenges including uncertainty in species response to management actions, budgetary constraints that limit options, and the need to scale expected conservation benefits from local to landscape levels and from single to multiple species. A structured decision‐making process was applied to address these challenges and identify a cost‐effective conservation strategy for the Federally listed endangered and threatened aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB). The UTRB, which encompasses a landscape of ~58 000 km 2 , primarily in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and south‐western Virginia, harbours one of the most globally diverse assemblages of freshwater fishes and mussels at temperate latitudes. To develop a strategy for conservation of 12 fish species and 24 mussel species over a 20‐year period, a management strategy that would best recover these species was identified given costs and uncertainty in management effectiveness. The main insights came from a trade‐off analysis that compared alternative allocations of effort among management actions. A strategy emphasizing population management, which included propagation and translocation, performed best across a wide range of objective weightings and was robust to uncertainty in management effectiveness. Species prioritization was based on the expected conservation benefit from the best performing strategy, degree of imperilment, and species‐specific management costs. Sub‐basin prioritization was based on expected conservation benefit from the best performing strategy and feasibility of habitat management and threat abatement. Although the strategy was developed for imperilled aquatic species in the UTRB, the structured process is applicable for developing cost‐efficient strategies to conserve multiple species across a landscape under uncertain management effectiveness. The process can assist a manager with limited resources to understand which species to work on, where to conduct that work, and what work would be most beneficial for those species in those catchments.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennes↗