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USGS2021

Nearshore water quality and coral health indicators along the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi, 2010–2014

Coral reefs worldwide are experiencing rapid degradation in response to climate and land-use change, namely effects of warming sea-surface temperatures, contaminant runoff, and overfishing. Extensive coral bleaching caused by the steady rise of sea-surface temperatures is projected to increase, but our understanding and ability to predict where corals may be most resilient to this effect is limited owing to a lack of knowledge of nearshore habitat conditions and the role of compromised coral health in preconditioning bleaching vulnerability. On high islands and most atolls, fresh to brackish groundwater discharges to the coast through the beach face and seafloor, where it mixes with marine waters and commonly creates cool estuarine nearshore waters that are important to wildlife and ecosystem services that benefit people. Here, we summarize results of a study to evaluate the ecosystem services and effects of groundwater on coral reef health and the potential role of groundwater to maintain cold-water refugia that can buffer corals from thermal stress during temperature maxima. Across 75 kilometers of the west coastline of the Island of Hawaiʻi, paired time-series and discrete measurements of water quality, coral-community and colony size structures, and coral health indicators, including bleaching, at 33 stations grouped into 12 study areas were made from July 2010 to December 2013. The results show that nearshore water temperatures are depressed by groundwater across extensive areas of the nearshore. Persistent cold-water refugia ranging from 1 to 5 degrees Celsius below surrounding marine water temperatures are shown to be associated with identified groundwater inputs. Significant correlations were found between metrics of coral health and water temperature. Because areas of temperature refugia were notable along the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi and are identified by ecologists as increasingly important to valued wildlife, improved understanding of groundwater flux to the long-term resilience of coral reefs is likely important. In particular, evaluating the extent that the magnitude and timing of groundwater discharge across the nearshore mitigate thermal bleaching stress may help inform the fate of coral reefs projected to experience rising sea-surface temperatures worldwide.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Integrated carbon budget models for the Everglades terrestrial-coastal-oceanic gradient: Current status and needs for inter-site comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines

Florida↗

USGS2003

Establishing causality in the decline and deformity of amphibians: The amphibian research and monitoring initiative model

Research to date has indicated that a range of environmental variables such as disease, parasitism, predation, competition, environmental contamination, solar ultraviolet radiation, climate change, or habitat alteration may be responsible for declining amphibian populations and the appearance of deformed organisms, yet in many cases no definitive environmental variable stands out as a causal factor. Multiple Stressors are often present in the habitat, and interactions among these can magnify injury to biota. This raises the possibility that the additive or synergistic impact of these Stressors may be the underlying cause of amphibian declines. Effective management for the restoration of amphibian populations requires the identification of causal factors contributing to their declines. A systematic approach to determine causality is especially important because initial impressions may be misleading or ambiguous. In addition, the evaluation of amphibian populations requires consideration of a broader spatial scale than commonly used in regulatory monitoring. We describe a systematic three-tiered approach to determine causality in amphibian declines and deformities. Tier 1 includes an evaluation of historic databases and extant data and would involve a desktop synopsis of the status of various stressors as well as site visits. Tier 2 studies are iterative, hypothesis driven studies beginning with general tests and continuing with analyses of increasing complexity as certain stressors are identified for further investigation. Tier 3 applies information developed in Tier 2 as predictive indicators of habitats and species at risk over broad landscape scales and provides decision support for the adaptive management of amphibian recovery. This comprehensive, tiered program could provide a mechanistic approach to identifying and addressing specific stressors responsible for amphibian declines across various landscapes.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems, which are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate if regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of the tidal marshes and how that will impact the hydro-geomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities.

California↗

USGS2021

Aerial strip-transect surveys: Indexing autumn–winter waterbird abundance and distribution in South Carolina

Aerial surveys integrating probability-based sample designs have been implemented successfully to estimate relative abundance of wintering ducks in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, but these approaches have not been evaluated in the Atlantic Flyway except for American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) along the Atlantic coast. Furthermore, these surveys have not been used to index abundance of other nonbreeding waterbirds. Given elimination or reduction of resources allocated to the Midwinter Waterfowl Survey in the Atlantic Flyway and elsewhere, the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) expressed a need for reliable surveys to monitor waterfowl and other waterbirds during autumn through winter. We designed stratified aerial strip-transect surveys to estimate population indices for migrating and wintering dabbling ducks (Anatini), diving ducks (Aythini, Mergini, Oxyurini), pelagic and piscivorous waterbirds (Anhingidae, Laridae, Pelicanidae, Phalacrocoracidae), and wading birds (Ardeidae, Ciconiidae, Threskiornithidae) in coastal and inland regions of South Carolina during autumn-winter 2017–2019. We used unequal probability random sampling to estimate population indices with deemed adequate precision (i.e., coefficient of variation [CV] ≤ 20%) and estimated theoretical survey efforts needed to achieve desired precision for future aerial surveys. Indices met our goal for precision in September and January 2018 for wading birds, in February and November 2018 for pelagic waterbirds, and in February 2018 for diving ducks, but never for other ducks during South Carolina waterfowl hunting season. We detected peak abundance of dabbling and diving ducks in January and wading birds and wood storks ( Mycteria americana ) in September. We estimated ~2.5 times greater survey effort was needed across waterbird taxa than was expended to achieve a CV=20%. We also used survey data to depict spatiotemporal variation in waterbird distributions across the study area. Our surveys are applicable for the SCDNR and other agencies seeking to monitor autumn-winter waterbird populations. Although survey refinements are necessary to increase precision in South Carolina, our waterbird indices are useful to assess population trends through time, guide habitat management and restoration efforts, refine local harvest regulations, inform law enforcement to detected illicit activities (e.g., baiting), and monitor possible shifting waterbird distributions in response to land-use and climate change.

South Carolina↗

USGS2011

Implications of discontinuous elevation gradients on fragmentation and restoration in patterned wetlands

Large wetlands around the world face the possibility of degradation, not only from complete conversion, but also from subtle changes in their structure and function. While fragmentation and isolation of wetlands within heterogeneous landscapes has received much attention, the disruption of spatial patterns/processes within large wetland systems and the resulting fragmentation of community components are less well documented. A greater understanding of pattern/process relationships and landscape gradients, and what occurs when they are altered, could help avoid undesirable consequences of restoration actions. The objective of this study is to determine the amount of fragmentation of sawgrass ridges due to artificial impoundment of water and how that may be differentially affected by spatial position relative to north and south levees. We also introduce groundbreaking evidence of landscape-level discontinuous elevation gradients within WCA3AS by comparing generalized linear and generalized additive models. These relatively abrupt breaks in elevation may have non-linear effects on hydrology and vegetation communities and would be crucial in restoration considerations. Modeling suggests there are abrupt breaks in elevation as a function of northing ( Y -coordinate). Fragmentation indices indicate that fragmentation is a function of elevation and easting ( X -coordinate), and that fragmentation has increased from 1988-2002. When landscapes change and the changes are compounded by non-linear landscape variables that are described herein, the maintenance processes change with them, creating a degraded feedback loop that alters the system's response to structuring variables and diminishes our ability to predict the effects of restoration projects or climate change. Only when these landscape variables and linkages are clearly defined can we predict the response to potential perturbations and apply the knowledge to other landscape-level wetland systems in need of future restoration.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Landsat time series analysis of fractional plant cover changes on abandoned energy development sites

Oil and natural gas development in the western United States has increased substantially in recent decades as technological advances like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have made extraction more commercially viable. Oil and gas pads are often developed for production, and then capped, reclaimed, and left to recover when no longer productive. Understanding the rates, controls, and degree of recovery of these reclaimed well sites to a state similar to pre-development conditions is critical for energy development and land management decision processes. Here we use a multi-decadal time series of satellite imagery (Landsat 5, 1984–2011) to assess vegetation regrowth on 365 abandoned well pads located across the Colorado Plateau in Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. We developed high-frequency time series of the Soil-Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI) for each well pad using the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. BFAST time-series models were used to fit temporal trends, identifying when vegetation was cleared from the site and the magnitudes and rates of vegetation change after abandonment. The time series metrics are used to calculate the relative fractional vegetation cover (RFVC) of each pad, a measure of post-abandonment vegetation cover relative to pre-drilling condition. Mean and median RFVC were 36% (s.d. 33%) and 26%, respectively, five years after abandonment, with one third of well pads having RFVC greater than 50%. Statistical analyses suggest that much of the high vegetation cover is associated with weedy invasive annual species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and Russian thistle (Salsola spp.). Climate conditions and the year of abandonment also play a role, with increased cover in later years associated with a wetter period. Non-linear change at many pads suggests longer recovery times than would be estimated by linear extrapolation. New techniques implemented here address a complex response of cover change to soils, management, and climate over time, and can be extended to the operational monitoring of energy development across large areas.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

USGS2000

Controls on nitrogen flux in alpine/subalpine watersheds of Colorado

High‐altitude watersheds in the Front Range of Colorado show symptoms of advanced stages of nitrogen excess, despite having less nitrogen in atmospheric deposition than other regions where watersheds retain nitrogen. In two alpine/subalpine subbasins of the Loch Vale watershed, atmospheric deposition of NO 3 − plus NH 4 + was 3.2–5.5 kg N ha −1 , and watershed export was 1.8–3.9 kg N ha −1 for water years 1992–1997. Annual N export increased in years with greater input of N, but most of the additional N was retained in the watershed, indicating that parts of the ecosystem are nitrogen‐limited. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were greatest in subsurface water of talus landscapes, where mineralization and nitrification augment high rates of atmospheric deposition of N. Tundra landscapes had moderately high DIN concentrations, whereas forest and wetland landscapes had low concentrations, indicating little export of nitrogen from these landscapes. Between the two subbasins the catchment of Icy Brook had greater retention of nitrogen than that of Andrews Creek because of landscape and hydrologic characteristics that favor greater N assimilation in both the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These results suggest that export of N from alpine/subalpine watersheds is caused by a combination of direct flushing of N from atmospheric deposition and release of N from ecosystem biogeochemical processes (N cycling). Sensitivity of alpine ecosystems in the western United States to atmospheric deposition of N is a function of landscape heterogeneity, hydrologic flow paths, and climatic extremes that limit primary productivity and microbial activity, which, in turn, control retention and release of nitrogen. Conceptual and mechanistic models of N excess that have been developed for forested ecosystems need to be modified in order to predict the response of alpine ecosystems to future changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of N.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2004

Development of a long-term sampling network to monitor restoration success in the southwest coastal Everglades: Vegetation, hydrology, and sediments

Introduction and History Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, crossed the southern Florida peninsula on the morning of August 24, 1992. Following the storm, the National Park Service conducted an environmental damage assessment to gauge the storm's impacts on the natural resources of south Florida Park Service holdings. Although hurricanes have impacted Park Service lands such as the Everglades in the past, no systematic, permanent sampling scheme has been established to monitor long-term recovery (or lack thereof) following disturbance. In October 1992, vegetation monitoring plots were established in heavily damaged areas of mangrove forest on the southwest coast of the Everlgades, along the Lostmans and Broad Rivers. As the permanent plot network was being established, funding was awarded for the South Florida Global Climate Change project (SOFL-GCC). This led to the establishment of a network of hydrological monitoring stations. Finally, sediment elevation tables (SETs) were installed at many locations. SETs provide the means to measure very small changes (2 mm) in the sediment surface elevation accurately over time. We also set up marker horizons to measure accretion of sediment at each site. Sampling sites were located along three transects extending from upstream freshwater wetlands to downstream saltwater wetlands along the Shark, Lostmans and Chatham Rivers in Everglades National Park. While we were developing our sampling network for basic scientific research needs, concern mounted over the health of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem and in particular over the influence of decreased freshwater flows. Ecosystem restoration planning was begun, resulting in the multi-agency, $8 billion Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). Our co-located sampling networks allow us to track the interaction of hydrology, sediment, and vegetation over time, and will provide the opportunity to monitor the progress of the Everglades restoration and to gauge its success. Our earlier research questions have been modified over time to place a major emphasis on CERP needs, while still recognizing the importance of other processes, including disturbance and sea-level rise. Our research addresses processes relevant to the following restoration and related questions: * How will increasing freshwater flow affect wetland primary production? * Will increasing freshwater inflow alter nutrient availability? * Does recovery following disturbance in mangroves depend on freshwater inflow? * Will the position of vegetation ecotones change in response to upstream water management? * What will be the influence of global climate change, such as sea-level rise, on the Everglades restoration? * Will processes of wetlands soil formation be altered by sea-level rise and changed freshwater inflow?

Florida↗

USGS2014

Capturing interactions between nitrogen and hydrological cycles under historical climate and land use: Susquehanna watershed analysis with the GFDL land model LM3-TAN

We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the Lower Susquehanna Sub-Basin (extensive agriculture; Atlantic coastal climate) and the lowest rates in the West Branch Susquehanna Sub-Basin (mostly forest; Great Lakes and Midwest climate). In the re-growing secondary forests, most of the N from non-point sources was stored in the vegetation and soil, but in the agricultural lands most N inputs were removed by soil denitrification, indicating that anthropogenic N applications could drive substantial increase of N 2 O emission, an intermediate of the denitrification process.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2010

Inter-comparison of hydro-climatic regimes across northern catchments: Synchronicity, resistance and resilience

The higher mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter-catchment comparison program, North-Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North-Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify 'types' of hydro-climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10-year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter-annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual-scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall-runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2020

Topographic, soil, and climate drivers of drought sensitivity in forests and shrublands of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with major impacts to ecosystems globally. Broad-scale assessments of vegetation responses to drought are needed to anticipate, manage, and potentially mitigate climate-change effects on ecosystems. We quantified the drought sensitivity of vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA, as the percent reduction in vegetation greenness under droughts relative to baseline moisture conditions. At a regional scale, shrub-steppe ecosystems—with drier climates and lower biomass—showed greater drought sensitivity than conifer forests. However, variability in drought sensitivity was considerable within biomes and within ecosystems and was mediated by landscape topography, climate, and soil characteristics. Drought sensitivity was generally greater in areas with higher elevation, drier climate, and greater soil bulk density. Ecosystems with high drought sensitivity included dry forests along ecotones to shrublands, Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and cold upland sagebrush communities. In forests, valley bottoms and areas with low soil bulk density and high soil available water capacity showed reduced drought sensitivity, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. These regional-scale drought-sensitivity patterns discerned from remote sensing can complement plot-scale studies of plant physiological responses to drought to help inform climate-adaptation planning as drought conditions intensify.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗

USGS2025

Spatial regimes provide ample early warning of tipping points

Accelerating global change is a hallmark of the Anthropocene, and the interaction of rapid change in climate, land use and land cover makes understanding the response of social-ecological systems to global change difficult to predict. Global change directly and indirectly affects both social-ecological systems and the landscapes in which they are embedded. Spatial heterogeneity in the location, manifestation of, and responses to global change makes spatially explicit approaches to management and conservation necessary. Spatial regimes, a concept derived from resilience theory, are at the forefront of attempts to operationalize and quantify resilience of dynamic landscapes. Spatial regimes are defined as dynamic landscape units that are shaped by a self-organizing set of processes and structures. They have identifiable spatial extents with discrete boundaries at a given scale that exhibit relative homogeneity in process, structure and composition maintained by feedback mechanisms. Here, we describe the concept of, evidence for, and applications of spatial regimes and how spatial regimes relate to scale and telecoupling of change across social-ecological systems. We emphasize the utility of the concept as an early warning of regime change, one that can provide ample early warning. We discuss methods that can be used to detect spatial regimes and uses of the concept for understanding and managing the spatio-temporal response of social-ecological systems to global change.

Advances in Ecological Research↗

USGS2016

Hg concentrations in fish from coastal waters of California and Western North America

The State of California conducted an extensive and systematic survey of mercury (Hg) in fish from the California coast in 2009 and 2010. The California survey sampled 3483 fish representing 46 species at 68 locations, and demonstrated that methylHg in fish presents a widespread exposure risk to fish consumers. Most of the locations sampled (37 of 68) had a species with an average concentration above 0.3 μg/g wet weight (ww), and 10 locations an average above 1.0 μg/g ww. The recent and robust dataset from California provided a basis for a broader examination of spatial and temporal patterns in fish Hg in coastal waters of Western North America. There is a striking lack of data in publicly accessible databases on Hg and other contaminants in coastal fish. An assessment of the raw data from these databases suggested the presence of relatively high concentrations along the California coast and in Puget Sound, and relatively low concentrations along the coasts of Alaska and Oregon, and the outer coast of Washington. The dataset suggests that Hg concentrations of public health concern can be observed at any location on the coast of Western North America where long-lived predator species are sampled. Output from a linear mixed-effects model resembled the spatial pattern observed for the raw data and suggested, based on the limited dataset, a lack of trend in fish Hg over the nearly 30-year period covered by the dataset. Expanded and continued monitoring, accompanied by rigorous data management procedures, would be of great value in characterizing methylHg exposure, and tracking changes in contamination of coastal fish in response to possible increases in atmospheric Hg emissions in Asia, climate change, and terrestrial Hg control efforts in coastal watersheds.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2009

Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2025

Proactive assisted gene flow for Caribbean corals in an era of rapid coral reef decline

Coral reefs are one of the most well-documented marine ecosystems under increasing threat from climate change. Catastrophic episodes of coral bleaching and subsequent mortality caused by prolonged heat stress ( 1 ) highlight the need to test and implement new approaches to prevent species loss and retain ecosystem function ( 2 ). One of these approaches is assisted gene flow (AGF)—the managed movement of individuals or gametes between populations within species ranges to mitigate local maladaptation ( 3 ). AGF has recently been approved to help save elkhorn corals in Florida from local extirpation but faces challenges for its broader application owing to static regulatory frameworks whose precautionary nature does not readily account for the high cost of inaction in response to the dynamic ecological realities of climate change ( 4 , 5 ). Here, we highlight how regulatory action could help safely facilitate coral AGF across international boundaries, at least in the tropical western Atlantic (Caribbean).

Science↗

USGS1997

Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2009

Selected achievements, science directions, and new opportunities for the WEBB small watershed research program

Over nearly two decades, the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) small watershed research program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented how water and solute fluxes, nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics, and weathering and sediment transport respond to natural and humancaused drivers, including climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. Together with a continued and increasing focus on the effects of climate change, more investigations are needed that examine ecological effects (e.g., evapotranspiration, nutrient uptake) and responses (e.g., species abundances, biodiversity) that are coupled with the physical and chemical processes historically observed in the WEBB program. Greater use of remote sensing, geographic modeling, and habitat/watershed modeling tools is needed, as is closer integration with the USGS-led National Phenology Network. Better understanding of process and system response times is needed. The analysis and observation of land-use and climate change effects over time should be improved by pooling data obtained by the WEBB program during the last two decades with data obtained earlier and (or) concurrently from other research and monitoring studies conducted at or near the five WEBB watershed sites. These data can be supplemented with historical and paleo-environmental information, such as could be obtained from tree rings and lake cores. Because of the relatively pristine nature and small size of its watersheds, the WEBB program could provide process understanding and basic data to better characterize and quantify ecosystem services and to develop and apply indicators of ecosystem health. In collaboration with other Federal and State watershed research programs, the WEBB program has an opportunity to contribute to tracking the short-term dynamics and long-term evolution of ecosystem services and health indicators at a multiplicity of scales across the landscape.

Conference Paper↗