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Spatially explicit habitat models for 28 fishes from the Upper Mississippi River System (AHAG 2.0)

Environmental management actions in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) typically require pre-project assessments of predicted benefits under a range of project scenarios. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) now requires certified and peer-reviewed models to conduct these assessments. Previously, habitat benefits were estimated for fish communities in the UMRS using the Aquatic Habitat Appraisal Guide (AHAG v.1.0; AHAG from hereon). This spreadsheet-based model used a habitat suitability index (HSI) approach that drew heavily upon Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1980) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). The HSI approach requires developing species response curves for different environmental variables that seek to broadly represent habitat. The AHAG model uses species-specific response curves assembled from literature values, data from other ecosystems, or best professional judgment. A recent scientific review of the AHAG indicated that the model’s effectiveness is reduced by its dated approach to large river ecosystems, uncertainty regarding its data inputs and rationale for habitat-species response relationships, and lack of field validation (Abt Associates Inc., 2011). The reviewers made two major recommendations: (1) incorporate empirical data from the UMRS into defining the empirical response curves, and (2) conduct post-project biological evaluations to test pre-project benefits estimated by AHAG. Our objective was to address the first recommendation and generate updated response curves for AHAG using data from the Upper Mississippi River Restoration-Environmental Management Program (UMRR-EMP) Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) element. Fish community data have been collected by LTRMP (Gutreuter and others, 1995; Ratcliff and others, in press) for 20 years from 6 study reaches representing 1,930 kilometers of river and >140 species of fish. We modeled a subset of these data (28 different species; occurrences at sampling sites as observed in day electrofishing samples) using multiple logistic regression with presence/absence responses. Each species’ probability of occurrence, at each sample site, was modeled as a function of 17 environmental variables observed at each sample site by LTRMP standardized protocols. The modeling methods used (1) a forward-selection process to identify the most important predictors and their relative contributions to predictions; (2) partial methods on the predictor set to control variance inflation; and (3) diagnostics for LTRMP design elements that may influence model fits. Models were fit for 28 species, representing 3 habitat guilds (Lentic, Lotic, and Generalist). We intended to develop “systemic models” using data from all six LTRMP study reaches simultaneously; however, this proved impossible. Thus, we “regionalized” the models, creating two models for each species: “Upper Reach” models, using data from Pools 4, 8, and 13; and “Lower Reach” models, using data from Pool 26, the Open River Reach of the Mississippi River, and the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. A total of 56 models were attempted. For any given site-scale prediction, each model used data from the three LTRMP study reaches comprising the regional model to make predictions. For example, a site-scale prediction in Pool 8 was made using data from Pools 4, 8, and 13. This is the fundamental nature and trade-off of regionalizing these models for broad management application. Model fits were deemed “certifiably good” using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit statistic (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000). This test post-partitions model predictions into 10 groups and conducts inferential tests on correspondences between observed and expected probability of occurrence across all partitions, under Chi-square distributional assumptions. This permits an inferential test of how well the models fit and a tool for reporting when they did not (and perhaps why). Our goal was to develop regionalized models, and to assess and describe circumstances when a good fit was not possible. Seven fish species composed the Lentic guild. Good fits were achieved for six Upper Reach models. In the Lower Reach, no model produced good fits for the Lentic guild. This was due to (1) lentic species being much less prominent in the Lower Reach study areas, and (2) those that do express greater prominence principally do so only in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. Thus, developing Lower Reach models for Lentic species will require parsing La Grange from the other two Lower Reach study areas and fitting separate models. We did not do that as part of this study, but it could be done at a later time. Nine species comprised the Lotic guild. Good fits were achieved for seven Upper Reach models and six Lower Reach models. Four species had good fits for both regions (flathead catfish, blue sucker, sauger, and shorthead redhorse). Three species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (blue catfish, rock bass, and skipjack herring). Twelve species comprised the Generalist guild. Good fits were achieved for five Upper Reach models and eight Lower Reach models. Six species had good fits for both regions (brook silverside, emerald shiner, freshwater drum, logperch, longnose gar, and white bass). Two species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (red shiner and blackstripe topminnow). Poorly fit models were almost always due to the diagnostic variable “field station,” a surrogate for river mile. In these circumstances, the residuals for “field station” were non-randomly distributed and often strongly ordered. This indicates either fitting “pool scale” models for these species and regions, or explicitly model covariances between “field station” and the other predictors within the existing modeling framework. Further efforts on these models should seek to resolve these issues using one of these two approaches. In total, nine species, representing two of the three guilds (Lotic and Generalist), produced well-fit models for both regions. These nine species should comprise the basis for AHAG 2.0. Additional work, likely requiring downscaling of the regional models to pool-scale models, will be needed to incorporate additional species. Alternately, a regionalized AHAG could be comprised of those species, per region, that achieved well-fit models. The number of species and the composition of the regional species pools will differ among regions as a consequence. Each of these alternatives has both pros and cons, and managers are encouraged to consider them fully before further advancing this approach to modeling multi-species habitat suitability.

Upper Mississippi River System↗

Status Assessment of Laysan and Black-Footed Albatrosses, North Pacific Ocean, 1923-2005

Over the past century, Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed (Phoebastria nigripes) albatrosses have been subjected to high rates of mortality and disturbance at the breeding colonies and at sea. Populations were greatly reduced and many colonies were extirpated around the turn of the 20th century as a result of feather hunting. Populations were recovering when military occupation of several breeding islands during World War II led to new population declines at these islands and additional colony extirpations. At sea, thousands of Laysan and black-footed albatrosses were killed each year in high-seas driftnet fisheries, especially from 1978 until the fisheries were banned in 1992. Through the 1990s, there was a growing awareness of the large numbers of albatrosses that were being killed in longline fisheries. During the 1990s, other anthropogenic factors, such as predation by non-native mammals and exposure to contaminants, also were documented to reduce productivity or increase mortality. In response to the growing concerns over the impacts of these threats on albatross populations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct an assessment of Laysan and black-footed albatross populations. This assessment includes a review of the taxonomy, legal status, geographic distribution, natural history, habitat requirements, threats, and monitoring and management activities for these two species. The second part of the assessment is an analysis of population status and trends from 1923 to 2005. Laysan and black-footed albatrosses forage throughout the North Pacific Ocean and nest on tropical and sub-tropical oceanic islands from Mexico to Japan. As of 2005, 21 islands support breeding colonies of one or both species. The core breeding range is the Hawaiian Islands, where greater than 99 percent of the World's Laysan albatrosses and greater than 95 percent of the black-footed albatrosses nest on the small islands and atolls of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. These islands are all protected as part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. Albatrosses are long-lived seabirds with deferred maturity, low fecundity, and high rates of adult survival. Their life history characteristics make populations especially vulnerable, to small increases in adult mortality. The primary threats to Laysan and black-footed albatrosses include interactions with commercial fisheries, predation by introduced mammals, reduced reproductive output due to contaminants, nesting habitat loss and degradation due to human development and invasive plant species, and potential loss and degradation of habitat due to climate change and sea-level rise. Incidental mortality (bycatch) in commercial fisheries is the greatest anthropogenic source of mortality (post-fledging) for both species. We found that longline fishing effort prior to the 1980s was greater than previously estimated and a very significant source of mortality. Regulations to minimize and monitor albatross mortality have been enacted in most U.S. and Canadian longline fisheries, but monitoring of bycatch rates and regulations to minimize seabird mortality are extremely limited in the much larger multinational longline fleets. Management to address threats at the breeding colonies is ongoing and includes eradication or control of non-native species, habitat management, and abatement programs to reduce impacts of contaminants. Effective long-term conservation and management of the Laysan and black-footed albatrosses require management and monitoring at the breeding colonies and at sea and continued assessment of population status and trends. We evaluated the status and trends of Laysan and black-footed albatross populations using linear regression, population viability analysis (PVA), and age-structured matrix models. Analyses were predominantly based on nest-count data gathered at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midw

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Southern (California) sea otter population status and trends at San Nicolas Island, 2020–2023

The population of southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) at San Nicolas Island, California, has been monitored annually since the translocation of 140 southern sea otters to the island was completed in 1990. Monitoring efforts have varied in frequency and type across years. In 2017, the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service initiated a southern sea otter monitoring and research plan to determine the effects of military readiness activities on the growth or decline of the southern sea otter population at San Nicolas Island. The southern sea otter is the only subspecies of sea otter in California (hereafter, “sea otter"). The monitoring program, at its basic level, includes seasonal surveys of population abundance, distribution, and foraging activity. From 2020 to 2023, we measured a 10-percent per annum increase in population abundance (95-percent confidence interval =0–20 percent), with 146 total individuals as of April 2023. Coinciding with the recent population growth, the sea otter distribution, which previously tended to concentrate on the island’s west end during 2003–2006 before shifting toward more use in the north and south sides during 2017–2019, appears to have shifted again during 2020–2023 to concentrate at the island’s east end. Forage data were collected between February 2020 and April 2023. There was a total of 773 forage dives in 60 forage bouts, with most of the identified prey on successful dives (n=401) recorded as sea urchins (66 percent), followed by bivalves (15 percent), snails (12 percent), and crabs (5.2 percent). Two lobsters and three abalone also were identified among the sea otter prey. Estimates of energy intake rates averaged 14.0 kilocalories per minute (95-percent confidence interval =10.8–17.2 kilocalories per minute). Monitoring data from the past two decades indicate that sea otters at San Nicolas Island have maintained a steady pattern of energy intake and population growth characteristic of a robust population, including a sixfold growth between 2000 and 2023. There was no conclusive evidence of density-dependent effects based on these patterns; however, estimates of energy intake rates for 2020–2023 were slightly lower than previous estimates from 2017 to 2019. Additionally, subtidal monitoring results at four sites around San Nicolas Island indicated that counts of purple sea urchins ( Strongylocentrotus purpuratus ) have increased between 2003 and 2023, whereas sea otter foraging surveys completed during the same period revealed that some sea otters have shifted toward higher consumption of purple sea urchins and bivalves compared to red sea urchins ( S. fransicanus ), which generally are the preferred larger prey of sea otters. These results contribute to the understanding of population dynamics and to the conservation and planning of future monitoring and research of sea otters at San Nicolas Island.

California↗

Status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Tinian and Aguiguan, Mariana Islands

Avian surveys were conducted on the islands of Tinian and Aguiguan, Marianas Islands, in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current baseline densities and abundances and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. On Tinian, during the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 12 species. Half of the 10 native species—Yellow Bittern (Ixobrychus sinensis), White-throated Ground-Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura), Collared Kingfisher (Todiramphus chloris), Rufous Fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), and Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca)—and one alien bird—Island Collared-Dove (Streptopelia bitorquata)—have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopus roseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two native birds—White Tern (Gygis alba) and Bridled White-eye (Zosterops saypani)—and one alien bird—Eurasian Tree Sparrow (Passer montanus)—were considered relatively stable. Only five birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Tinian Monarch, Rufous Fantail, and Bridled White-eye—showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Tinian Monarch was found in all habitat types, with the greatest monarch densities observed in limestone forest, secondary forest, and tangantangan (Leucaena leucocephala) thicket and the smallest densities found in open fields and urban/residential habitats. On Aguiguan, 19 species were detected on one or both of the surveys (1982 and 2008), and abundance estimates were produced for nine native and one alien species. Densities for seven of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Collared Kingfisher, Rufous Fantail, Bridled White-eye, Golden White-eye (Cleptornis marchei), and Micronesian Starling—and the alien bird— Island Collared-Dove—were significantly greater in 2008 than 1982. No differences in densities were detected between the two surveys for White Tern and Micronesian Honeyeater. Three native land birds— Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse), Guam Swiftlet (Collocalia bartschi), and Nightingale Reed-Warbler (Acrocephalus luscinia)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities for either island. Increased military operations on Tinian may result in increases in habitat clearings and the human population, which would expand human-dominated habitats, and declines in some bird populations would be likely to continue or be exacerbated with these actions. Expanded military activities on Tinian would also mean increased movement between Guam and Tinian, elevating the probability of transporting the brown tree snake (Boiga irregularis) to Tinian.

Technical Report↗

White-nose syndrome in bats: U.S. Geological Survey updates

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a devastating disease that has killed millions of hibernating bats since it first appeared in New York in 2007 and has spread at an alarming rate from the northeastern to the central United States and Canada. The disease is named for the white fungus Geomyces destructans that infects the skin of the muzzle, ears, and wings of hibernating bats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC), the USGS Fort Collins Science Center, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners continue to play a primary role in WNS research. Studies conducted at the NWHC led to the discovery (Blehert and others, 2009), characterization, and naming (Gargas and others, 2009) of the cold-loving fungus G. destructans and to the development of standardized criteria for diagnosing the disease (Meteyer and others, 2009). Additionally, scientists at the NWHC have pioneered laboratory techniques for studying the effects of the fungus on hibernating bats (Lorch and others, 2011). To determine if bats are affected by white-nose syndrome, scientists look for a characteristic microscopic pattern of skin erosion caused by G. destructans (Meteyer and others, 2009). Field signs of WNS can include visible white fungal growth on the bat's muzzle, wings, or both, but these signs alone are not a reliable disease indicator - laboratory examination and testing are required for disease confirmation. Infected bats also arouse from hibernation more frequently than uninfected bats (Warnecke and others, 2012) and often display abnormal behaviors in their hibernation sites, such as congregating at or near cave openings and daytime flights during winter. These abnormal behaviors may contribute to the bat's accelerated consumption of stored fat reserves, causing emaciation, a characteristic documented in some of the bats that die with WNS. During hibernation, bats likely have lowered immunity (Bouma and others, 2010), which may facilitate the ability of G. destructans to colonize and damage large areas of wing membrane (fig. 2). A current hypothesis suggests that erosion or ulceration of wing membrane caused by the fungus has the potential to alter the physiology of hibernating bats, resulting in fatal disruption of hydration, electrolyte balance, circulation, and thermoregulation (Cryan and others, 2010). Current estimates of bat population declines in the northeastern United States since the emergence of WNS are over 80 percent (Turner and others, 2011). This sudden and widespread mortality associated with WNS is unprecedented in hibernating bats, among which large-scale disease outbreaks have not been previously documented. It is unlikely that species of bats affected by WNS will recover quickly because most are long-lived and have only a single pup per year. Consequently, repopulation after widespread mortality of breeding adults will be a slow process. Worldwide, bats play essential roles as pollinators, seed dispersers, and as primary consumers of insects. The true ecological consequences of the recent large-scale reductions in populations of hibernating bats are not yet known. However, farmers might feel the impact. A recent economic analysis indicated that insect control services (ecosystem services) provided by bats to U.S. agriculture is valued between 4 to 50 billion dollars nationwide per year (Boyles and others, 2011). The number of North American bats estimated to have died from WNS thus far had the capacity to consume up to 8,000 tons of insects per year (Boyles and others, 2011). The area of North America affected by WNS continues to expand. Within the last 2 years, the disease has been confirmed in several Central States, including Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, and Missouri. High mortality of bats has not yet been reported at these locations, and it remains to be seen if WNS will develop and manifest in other States with the same severity as that in the Northeast.

Alabama;Connecticut;Delaware;Illinois;Indiana;Iowa↗

Evaluation of restoration alternatives using hydraulic models of lake outflow at Wapato Lake National Wildlife Refuge, northwestern Oregon

Wapato Lake National Wildlife Refuge near the city of Gaston in northwestern Oregon was established in 2013, and planning is underway to restore a more natural lake and wetland system after more than 100 years of agricultural activity on the lakebed. Several water-management and restoration alternatives are under consideration, one of which involves opening and reconnecting Wapato Lake’s outlet to allow flow in and out of the lake to Wapato Creek and downstream to the Tualatin River. The effects of this and other alternatives are being evaluated, partly through a detailed examination of the lake’s water budget. The water budget for the lake during 2011–13 was quantified by the U.S. Geological Survey in partnership with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and others. Results were incorporated in a spreadsheet-based Water Management Scenario Tool (WMST) for Wapato Lake, which predicts the effects of various management actions on daily lake level and potential habitat areas for waterfowl or other target species. Incorporating the effects of a hypothetical open outlet between the lake and the downstream river network in the WMST was accomplished by using a hydraulic model to simulate the flow-exchange rate between Wapato Lake and Wapato Creek over a wide range of lake levels and downstream river conditions. A Hydraulic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) one-dimensional unsteady flow model was constructed and calibrated for Wapato Creek and part of the Tualatin River using data from October 2011 to April 2013, and then was used to simulate daily lake/creek exchange flows in water years 1992–2014 under hypothetically constant lake levels. Results were used to populate a table of lake/creek flow-exchange rates for use in the WMST; a dynamic link between the WMST and HEC-RAS was unrealistic because it would require hundreds of calls to HEC-RAS and result in long run times for a single water-year’s WMST calculations with daily time steps. Predictions of daily outlet flows from the WMST were checked against HEC-RAS simulated flows under daily varying lake levels to ensure that the timing and magnitude of lake/creek exchange flows used by the WMST were consistent with those of the hydraulic model. Two scenarios were tested with a hypothetical open lake outlet to show how the WMST could be used to inform restoration planning—one scenario used a year-round open lake outlet, and the other scenario closed that outlet for part of the high-water winter season. Results showed that flows in and out of a year-round open lake outlet would dominate the lake’s water budget and produce water depths during winter and through mid-summer that might be too deep to support waterbird species that require shallow water. Closing the lake outlet during large winter storms and high-water conditions in the downstream river network would isolate the lake from surrounding rivers, keep the lake level lower, and retain substantially more shallow-water areas. Because of the ease with which management alternatives can be evaluated, a water-budget spreadsheet tool such as the WMST has been a valuable part of an analysis of potential water-management and restoration alternatives for Wapato Lake National Wildlife Refuge.

Oregon↗

Low-altitude photographic transects of the Arctic Network of National Park Units and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, July 2013

During July 16–18, 2013, low-level photography flights were conducted (with a Cessna 185 with floats and a Cessna 206 with tundra tires) over the five administrative units of the National Park Service Arctic Network (Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Kobuk Valley National Park, and Noatak National Preserve) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Selawik National Wildlife Refuge in northwest Alaska, to provide images of current conditions and prevalence of land-cover types as a baseline for measuring future change, and to complement the existing grid-based sample photography of the region. Total flight time was 17 hours, 46 minutes, and total flight distance was 2,590 kilometers, at a mean altitude of about 300 meters above ground level. A total of 19,167 photographs were taken from five digital camera systems: 1. A Drift® HD-170 (focal length 5.00 mm); 2. A GoPro® Hero3 Black Edition (focal length 2.77 mm); 3. A Panasonic® Lumix DMC-FZ200 (24× superzoom with variable focal length); 4. A Panasonic® Lumix DMC-SZ7 (10x superzoom with variable focal length); and 5. A Canon® Rebel 3Ti with a Sigma zoom lens (18–200 mm focal length). The Drift® HD-170 and GoPro® Hero3 cameras were secured to the struts and underwing for nadir (direct downward) imaging. The Panasonic® and Canon® cameras were each hand-held for oblique-angle landscape images, shooting through the airplanes’ windows, targeting both general landscape conditions as well as landscape features of special interest, such as tundra fire scars and landslips. The Drift® and GoPro® cameras each were set for time-lapse photography at 5-second intervals for overlapping coverage. Photographs from all cameras (100 percent .jpg format) were date- and time-synchronized to geographic positioning system waypoints taken during the flights, also at 5-second intervals, providing precise geotagging (latitude-longitude) of all files. All photographs were adjusted for color saturation and gamma, and nadir photographs were corrected for lens distortion for the Drift® and GoPro® cameras’ 170° wide-angle distortion. EXIF (exchangeable image file format) data on camera settings and geotagging were extracted into spreadsheet databases. An additional 1 hour, 20 minutes, and 43 seconds of high-resolution videos were recorded at 60 frames per second with the GoPro® camera along selected transect segments, and also were image-adjusted and corrected for lens distortion. Geotagged locations of 12,395 nadir photographs from the Drift® and GoPro® cameras were overlayed in a geographic information system (ArcMap 10.0) onto a map of 44 ecotypes (land- and water-cover types) of the Arctic Network study area. Presence and area of each ecotype occurring within a geographic information system window centered on the location of each photograph were recorded and included in the spreadsheet databases. All original and adjusted photographs, videos, geographic positioning system flight tracks, and photograph databases are available by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov.

Alaska↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Water resources

The Williston Basin has been a leading oil and gas producing area for more than 50 years. While oil production initially peaked within the Williston Basin in the mid-1980s, production rapidly increased in the mid-2000s, largely because of improved horizontal (directional) drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods. In 2012, energy development associated with the Bakken Formation was identified as a priority requiring collaboration toward improved timeliness of issuing permits for new wells combined with reasonable measures to maintain environmental quality. Shortly thereafter, the Bakken Federal Executive Group was created to address common challenges associated with energy development. The Bakken Federal Executive Group partner agencies identified a gap in current understanding of the cumulative environmental challenges attributed to energy development throughout the area, resulting in an effort to aggregate scientific data and identify additional research and information needs related to natural resources within areas of energy development in the Williston Basin. As part of this effort, water resources in the area (including groundwater; streams and rivers; and lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands) were characterized and described in terms of physical occurrence, flow characteristics, recharge, water quality, and water use. Similarly, waters produced during energy-development activities also were characterized even though these waters are not considered usable resources within the area. Groundwater resources were characterized by the major hydrogeologic units, or aquifers, identifying the units that supply most groundwater used for domestic, stock, agricultural, and industrial purposes. The groundwater characterization included other deeper hydrogeologic units in the Williston Basin that may be a useable source of water with treatment, have utility as a reservoir for reinjection of produced waters, or be a source of minerals and energy resources. A generalized groundwater budget and flow system identifying the sources of recharge (stream infiltration, precipitation, and movement [leakage] from other aquifers) and the general groundwater flow direction is included for each of the major hydrogeologic units. Rivers and streams within the Williston Basin with 10 or more years of continuous streamflow data were identified. For a subset of these sites, streamflow characteristics, including the monthly and annual mean flow, were generated to identify seasonal and interannual changes in streamflow and thus provide information on the drivers and reliability of streamflow at the seasonal or multiyear scale. Daily streamflow and annual extreme flows (peak and low flow) also were estimated for the subset of sites. The daily streamflow and annual extreme flow values provide information on short-term or extreme events that are relevant to infrastructure design and evaluating spills, leaks, or accidental discharges of water or petroleum products. Surface-water features (lakes, ponds, and wetlands) were classified using the Cowardin system and identified on the National Wetlands Inventory maps generated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The spatial distribution of the surface-water features was analyzed by State, county, and specifically in comparison to the Prairie Pothole Region. The proximity of the surface-water features to energy development infrastructure (specifically oil or gas well pads) was evaluated. It was determined that, although oil or gas wells are often near a surface-water feature, most surface-water features do not have wells nearby, with the exception of wells in the Prairie Pothole Region. Water-quality data were aggregated from two data sources: (1) the Water-Quality Portal, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and National Water Quality Monitoring Council; and (2) a data compilation completed as part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment project. The Water-Quality Portal integrates publicly available water-quality data from databases maintained by the USGS, EPA, and U.S. Department of Agriculture, including water-quality data from Tribal, State, and local databases. Water-quality data for 15 commonly measured water-quality constituents were aggregated for groundwater, rivers and streams, and lakes and reservoirs. For each aggregated dataset (groundwater, rivers and streams, and lakes and reservoirs), analyses of the water-quality data included summary statistics, maps of spatial distribution of constituent values, boxplots of constituent values by timeframe or hydrogeologic unit, spatial comparisons of site locations and constituent values to petroleum well density, and comparisons of the constituent values measured to EPA drinking-water standards/guidelines. Produced water includes all fluids brought to the surface along with the targeted hydrocarbons as part of the oil and gas exploration and extraction processes. These fluids may include formation water (waters that co-exist with rock/oil/gas), hydraulic fracturing fluids, and other combinations of water and chemicals used during oil and gas well drilling, development, treatments, recompletions, and workovers. Produced water datasets were aggregated from two sources: the USGS National Produced Waters Geochemical database (ver. 2.1) and a series of projects focused specifically on sampling produced water in the Williston Basin from 2010 to 2014. The National Produced Waters Geochemical database was useful for a general understanding of produced-water chemistry. Produced waters are characterized by extreme salinity and contain elevated concentrations of other constituents (including arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, zinc, radium-226/radium-228, and ammonium) that could negatively affect water and aquatic resources if released. Produced waters also have a generally unique chemical (isotopic) signature that may be useful in tracking water from different geologic units; for example, the oxygen/deuterium and strontium ratio values measured in brine waters from the Bakken Formation are distinct from brines collected from other geologic units in the Williston Basin. Water-use information related to energy production in the area also was aggregated and summarized. The summary of water use is not limited to oil and gas production but includes water used to produce all types of energy resources in the Williston Basin, including coal/lignite, thermoelectric power, oil and gas, hydropower, biomass and biofuels, wind, geothermal, and solar. Each State has its own methods for regulating and reporting water usage within its jurisdiction. These methods can introduce problems when examining water use from sources, such as the Missouri River or Fox Hills aquifer, that are shared across political boundaries. Without the one-to-one match for usage types and amounts used from a water source, it is difficult to develop a comprehensive water budget for the water source being evaluated. A large amount of freshwater is required to prepare a well for oil and gas well production; in some cases, 3 to 7 million gallons of water are needed per well. The EPA estimates that hydraulic fracturing in the Williston Basin uses between 70 to 140 billion gallons per year. Water also is used for myriad other purposes related to ancillary oil and gas extraction. In addition to water used for immediate energy development, the expanded human workforce migrating into the area and other support staff who have moved into the area during the development also use water. Research and information needs were identified that could be relevant in the evaluation of the effects of energy development on water resources. Information needs related to the evaluation of groundwater resources include the following: improved potentiometric-surface maps for glacial units; availability of a uniform stream network digital geographic coverage that spans the international boundary with Canada; enhanced surface-water use information with regards to the gain and loss of streamflow to shallow groundwater, which would increase understanding groundwater and surface-water interactions; and expanded geophysical assessments. Gaps in the availability of streamflow data include the lack of information on ice-jam flooding despite potential for effects to infrastructure (pipelines, roads, and facilities) and an understanding of the cumulative effects of largely undocumented stock and diversion dams. Although this study resulted in the aggregation of a large quantity of water-quality data, the availability of consistently collected, systematically processed and reported data over large parts of the Williston Basin is sparse. Few samples have been analyzed for constituents that may indicate the effect of energy development on water resources. Constituents that could be considered include boron, chloride, bromide, iodine, fluoride, manganese, lithium, radium, strontium isotopes, volatile organic compounds, and isotopes of inorganic ions (such as hydrogen and carbon). Collaboration between Tribal, Federal, State, and local entities to identify a common study design, common monitoring constituents, and consistent sampling locations would generate datasets with broad utility and would likely result in overall cost savings for monitoring over time. Similarly, there is a need for standardized sample collection, processing, laboratory analytical methods, and the collection of ancillary data for produced waters sampling. Additional characterization of the range of chemical, microbial, and isotopic compositions and quantities of “end-member” produced waters, and the collection of time-series datasets to document the changes in produced waters during and after well development also were needs identified during this study. Water-use estimates would be improved through the implementation of comprehensive studies of water use from groundwater and surface-water sources using consistent methodologies across the Williston Basin. The submission of chemical and water data related to hydraulic fracturing collected by the oil and gas industry would add to the quantity of available data. Consistent implementation of regulations and monitoring controls across political boundaries (State, county, and international) would further improve the consistency of data available for the estimates of water use.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Hydrogeomorphic Classification of Wetlands on Mt. Desert Island, Maine, Including Hydrologic Susceptibility Factors for Wetlands in Acadia National Park

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a hydrogeomorphic (HGM) classification system for wetlands greater than 0.4 hectares (ha) on Mt. Desert Island, Maine, and applied this classification using map-scale data to more than 1,200 mapped wetland units on the island. In addition, two hydrologic susceptibility factors were defined for a subset of these wetlands, using 11 variables derived from landscape-scale characteristics of the catchment areas of these wetlands. The hydrologic susceptibility factors, one related to the potential hydrologic pathways for contaminants and the other to the susceptibility of wetlands to disruptions in water supply from projected future changes in climate, were used to indicate which wetlands (greater than 1 ha) in Acadia National Park (ANP) may warrant further investigation or monitoring. The HGM classification system consists of 13 categories: Riverine-Upper Perennial, Riverine-Nonperennial, Riverine- Tidal, Depressional-Closed, Depressional-Semiclosed, Depressional-Open, Depressional-No Ground-Water Input, Mineral Soil Flat, Organic Soil Flat, Tidal Fringe, Lacustrine Fringe, Slope, and Hilltop/Upper Hillslope. A dichotomous key was developed to aid in the classification of wetlands. The National Wetland Inventory maps produced by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service provided the wetland mapping units used for this classification. On the basis of topographic map information and geographic information system (GIS) layers at a scale of 1:24,000 or larger, 1,202 wetland units were assigned a preliminary HGM classification. Two of the 13 HGM classes (Riverine-Tidal and Depressional-No Ground-Water Input) were not assigned to any wetlands because criteria for determining those classes are not available at that map scale, and must be determined by more site-specific information. Of the 1,202 wetland polygons classified, which cover 1,830 ha in ANP, 327 were classified as Slope, 258 were Depressional (Open, Semiclosed, and Closed), 231 were Riverine (Upper Perennial and Nonperennial), 210 were Soil Flat (Mineral and Organic), 68 were Lacustrine Fringe, 51 were Tidal Fringe, 22 were Hilltop/Upper Hillslope, and another 35 were small open water bodies. Most small, isolated wetlands classified on the island are Slope wetlands. The least common, Hilltop/Upper Hillslope wetlands, only occur on a few hilltops and shoulders of hills and mountains. Large wetland complexes generally consist of groups of Depressional wetlands and Mineral Soil Flat or Organic Soil Flat wetlands, often with fringing Slope wetlands at their edges and Riverine wetlands near streams flowing through them. The two analyses of wetland hydrologic susceptibility on Mt. Desert Island were applied to 186 wetlands located partially or entirely within ANP. These analyses were conducted using individually mapped catchments for each wetland. The 186 wetlands were aggregated from the original 1,202 mapped wetland polygons on the basis of their HGM classes. Landscape-level hydrologic, geomorphic, and soil variables were defined for the catchments of the wetlands, and transformed into scaled scores from 0 to 10 for each variable. The variables included area of the wetland, area of the catchment, area of the wetland divided by the area of the catchment, the average topographic slope of the catchment, the amount of the catchment where bedrock crops out with no soil cover or excessively thin soil cover, the amount of storage (in lakes and wetlands) in the catchment, the topographic relief of the catchment, the amount of clay-rich soil in the catchment, the amount of manmade impervious surface, whether the wetland had a stream inflow, and whether the wetland had a hydraulic connection to a lake or estuary. These data were determined using a GIS and data layers mapped at a scale of 1:24,000 or larger. These landscape variables were combined in different ways for the two hydrologic susceptibility fact

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The Penobscot River and environmental contaminants: Assessment of tribal exposure through sustenance lifeways

EPA in collaboration with the Penobscot Indian Nation, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USF&WS) collectively embarked on a four year research study to evaluate the environmental health of the riverine system by targeting specific cultural practices and using traditional science to conduct a preliminary contaminant screening of the flora and fauna of the Penobscot River ecosystem. This study was designed as a preliminary screening to determine if contaminant concentrations in fish, eel, snapping turtle, wood ducks, and plants in Regions of the Penobscot River relevant to where PIN tribal members hunt, fish and gather plants were high enough to be a health concern. This study was not designed to be a statistically validated assessment of contaminant differences among study sites or among species. The traditional methodology for health risk assessment used by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is based on the use of exposure assumptions (e.g. exposure duration, food ingestion rate, body weight, etc.) that represent the entire American population, either as a central tendency exposure (e.g. average, median) or as a reasonable maximum exposure (e.g. 95% upper confidence limit). Unfortunately, EPA lacked exposure information for assessing health risks for New England regional tribes sustaining a tribal subsistence way of life. As a riverine tribe, the Penobscot culture and traditions are inextricably tied to the Penobscot River watershed. It is through hunting, fishing, trapping, gathering and making baskets, pottery, moccasins, birch-bark canoes and other traditional practices that the Penobscot culture and people are sustained. The Penobscot River receives a variety of pollutant discharges leaving the Penobscot Indian Nation (PIN) questioning the ecological health and water quality of the river and how this may affect the practices that sustain their way of life. The objectives of this Regional Applied Research Effort (RARE) study were to: Develop culturally sensitive methodologies for assessing the potential level of exposure tocontaminants that Penobscot Indian Nation tribal members may have from maintainingtribal sustenance practices. Conduct field surveys and laboratory analysis on targeted flora and fauna for chemicalexposure to dioxins/furans, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), total mercury and methyl-mercury. Assist the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) by providing thenecessary data to conduct a Public Health Assessment for the Penobscot Indian Nation. Establish protocols for assessing the level of exposure to PCBs, dioxins/furans and mercuryto PIN tribal members as a consequence of gathering tribal plants for medicinal andnutritional purposes; as well as consuming fish, wood duck, and snapping turtle as a primarysource of nutrition. Survey surface water, drinking water, and sediment from the Penobscot River and IndianIsland to assess the exposure of PIN tribal members to environmental genotoxicants thatcontinue cultural sustenance practices. This research initiative collected and analyzed sediment and biota to determine the level of contaminant exposure to Penobscot tribal members. Natural resource utilization patterns and exposure pathways were identified based on discussions with the Tribal elders. Identification of Tribal exposure factors (exposure pathways and contaminant concentrations) was essential for accurately assessing potential long-term Penobscot Indian Nation tribal members’ exposure. Based on this study, ATSDR’s Public Health Assessment (PHA) concluded that the Penobscot Indian Nation (PIN) tribal members who eat fish and snapping turtle at the ingestion levels suggested in the Wabanaki Traditional Cultural Lifeways Exposure Scenario Report (Wabanaki Exposure Scenario) may be exposed to harmful levels of mercury, dioxins/furans, dioxin-like PCBs, and ot

Maine↗

Continuous Turbidity Monitoring in the Indian Creek Watershed, Tazewell County, Virginia, 2006-08

Thousands of miles of natural gas pipelines are installed annually in the United States. These pipelines commonly cross streams, rivers, and other water bodies during pipeline construction. A major concern associated with pipelines crossing water bodies is increased sediment loading and the subsequent impact to the ecology of the aquatic system. Several studies have investigated the techniques used to install pipelines across surface-water bodies and their effect on downstream suspended-sediment concentrations. These studies frequently employ the evaluation of suspended-sediment or turbidity data that were collected using discrete sample-collection methods. No studies, however, have evaluated the utility of continuous turbidity monitoring for identifying real-time sediment input and providing a robust dataset for the evaluation of long-term changes in suspended-sediment concentration as it relates to a pipeline crossing. In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with East Tennessee Natural Gas and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, began a study to monitor the effects of construction of the Jewell Ridge Lateral natural gas pipeline on turbidity conditions below pipeline crossings of Indian Creek and an unnamed tributary to Indian Creek, in Tazewell County, Virginia. The potential for increased sediment loading to Indian Creek is of major concern for watershed managers because Indian Creek is listed as one of Virginia's Threatened and Endangered Species Waters and contains critical habitat for two freshwater mussel species, purple bean (Villosa perpurpurea) and rough rabbitsfoot (Quadrula cylindrical strigillata). Additionally, Indian Creek contains the last known reproducing population of the tan riffleshell (Epioblasma florentina walkeri). Therefore, the objectives of the U.S. Geological Survey monitoring effort were to (1) develop a continuous turbidity monitoring network that attempted to measure real-time changes in suspended sediment (using turbidity as a surrogate) downstream from the pipeline crossings, and (2) provide continuous turbidity data that enable the development of a real-time turbidity-input warning system and assessment of long-term changes in turbidity conditions. Water-quality conditions were assessed using continuous water-quality monitors deployed upstream and downstream from the pipeline crossings in Indian Creek and the unnamed tributary. These paired upstream and downstream monitors were outfitted with turbidity, pH (for Indian Creek only), specific-conductance, and water-temperature sensors. Water-quality data were collected continuously (every 15 minutes) during three phases of the pipeline construction: pre-construction, during construction, and post-construction. Continuous turbidity data were evaluated at various time steps to determine whether the construction of the pipeline crossings had an effect on downstream suspended-sediment conditions in Indian Creek and the unnamed tributary. These continuous turbidity data were analyzed in real time with the aid of a turbidity-input warning system. A warning occurred when turbidity values downstream from the pipeline were 6 Formazin Nephelometric Units or 15 percent (depending on the observed range) greater than turbidity upstream from the pipeline crossing. Statistical analyses also were performed on monthly and phase-of-construction turbidity data to determine if the pipeline crossing served as a long-term source of sediment. Results of this intensive water-quality monitoring effort indicate that values of turbidity in Indian Creek increased significantly between the upstream and downstream water-quality monitors during the construction of the Jewell Ridge pipeline. The magnitude of the significant turbidity increase, however, was small (less than 2 Formazin Nephelometric Units). Patterns in the continuous turbidity data indicate that the actual pipeline crossing of Indian Creek had little influence of downstream water quality; co

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluation of restoration alternatives using water-budget tools for the Wapato Lake National Wildlife Refuge, northwestern Oregon

The lakebed in Wapato Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in northwestern Oregon was farmed for decades prior to the establishment of the refuge in 2013. Planning for restoration of these lands required extensive data collection and construction of a water budget and tools to design and evaluate potential restoration strategies. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service worked together to monitor streamflow and water levels in and around Wapato Lake NWR, apply the USGS Shoreline Management Tool (SMT), then construct and apply a water-budget-based Water Management Scenario Tool (WMST). The SMT was used to determine the spatial availability of different water depths (as potential habitat for different species) as a function of water level and other factors, based on topographic data. The WMST uses a water-budget approach to predict daily water levels, inflows, outflows, and areas of specific categories of water depth in the refuge over the course of a water year in response to a range of hydrologic and meteorological conditions and potential water-management strategies. In this study, two hypothetical water-management strategies were simulated to predict their effect on water levels and areas with specific water depths as an indicator of potential habitat. In the first scenario, several tributaries that had been diverted around the lakebed since the 1930s were reconnected to the lake, and an outflow weir was used to control lake level and to create a lake and seasonal wetlands of specific depths. In the second scenario, an outflow weir was combined with pumps to help meet target lake levels. Results showed that reconnecting the largest three tributaries to Wapato Lake would provide sufficient water to create a range of aquatic conditions in most years. For a median water year, rainfall and tributary flows in these scenarios provided 99 percent of total inputs to the lake, whereas pumping, weir outflows, and open-water evaporation accounted for 95–97 percent of losses. Management of lake levels could be accomplished with a variable-elevation outflow weir or a combination of a weir and pumps. The lake would take longer to fill to a higher seasonal target level during a dry year. Without an outflow weir or other means of allowing water to flow out of the lake, the largest of two existing pumps would need to be used during late spring or early summer to attain a lower seasonal target water level in summer. High-water conditions downstream of Wapato Lake may prevent the use of a simple outflow weir, as historical downstream water levels in winter and spring sometimes were higher than the target water levels used in these scenarios. Water-budget-based methods applied in this study have proven to be valuable for the design and evaluation of potential restoration strategies at Wapato Lake NWR.

Wapato Lake National Wildlife Refuge↗

Mortality monitoring design for utility-scale solar power facilities

Introduction Solar power represents an important and rapidly expanding component of the renewable energy portfolio of the United States (Lovich and Ennen, 2011; Hernandez and others, 2014). Understanding the impacts of renewable energy development on wildlife is a priority for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in compliance with Department of Interior Order No. 3285 (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2009) to “develop best management practices for renewable energy and transmission projects on the public lands to ensure the most environmentally responsible development and delivery of renewable energy.” Recent studies examining effects of renewable energy development on mortality of migratory birds have primarily focused on wind energy (California Energy Commission and California Department of Fish and Game, 2007), and in 2012 the FWS published guidance for addressing wildlife conservation concerns at all stages of land-based wind energy development (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012). As yet, no similar guidelines exist for solar development, and no published studies have directly addressed the methodology needed to accurately estimate mortality of birds and bats at solar facilities. In the absence of such guidelines, ad hoc methodologies applied to solar energy projects may lead to estimates of wildlife mortality rates that are insufficiently accurate and precise to meaningfully inform conversations regarding unintended consequences of this energy source and management decisions to mitigate impacts. Although significant advances in monitoring protocols for wind facilities have been made in recent years, there remains a need to provide consistent guidance and study design to quantify mortality of bats, and resident and migrating birds at solar power facilities (Walston and others, 2015). In this document, we suggest methods for mortality monitoring at solar facilities that are based on current methods used at wind power facilities but adapted for the unique conditions encountered at solar facilities. In particular, unlike at wind-power facilities, the unimpeded access to almost all areas within the facilities, the typically flat terrain, and general absence of thick vegetation allow distance-sampling techniques (Buckland and others, 2001, 2004) to be exploited to advantage at industrial solar sites. These protocols build on the work of Nicolai and others (2011), and as our understanding and techniques for monitoring improve, the methods may be further modified to incorporate improvements in the future. We present case studies based on monitoring methods currently implemented at different utility-scale solar facilities to illustrate how distance-sampling techniques may improve overall detectability without substantially increasing costs. Every facility is unique, and the protocols presented may be adapted based on specific monitoring objectives and conditions at each site. We provide guidance for designing monitoring programs whose objective it is to estimate the total number of bird and bat fatalities occurring at a facility over an extended period of time. We address spatial variation in causes of mortality, as well as potential sources of imperfect detection, for example, animals falling in or moving to unsearched areas, carcasses removed by predators, and carcasses missed by searchers. We suggest methods to estimate and account for each source of imperfect detection. This document focuses on monitoring design only and does not discuss approaches for estimating mortality from collected data. The development of statistically sound estimators relevant to the solar context is a current topic of research, although there are already strong foundations for estimation with distance-sampling methods in similar open, arid environments (Anderson and others, 2001; Freilich and others, 2005). Nonetheless, if protocols described in this document are followed, the resulting data will be adequate and sufficient for estimating mortality using newly formulated estimators.

Open-File Report↗

Effects of drought and fire on bird communities of the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona

Executive Summary The U.S. Government created the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge (Kofa NWR) in 1939 in response to a citizen campaign to improve desert bighorn sheep populations in Arizona. The Kofa NWR is mountainous and remote, and its management by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) keeps anthropogenic disturbance levels low. As such, Partners In Flight (PIF) listed the Kofa NWR as one of its Sonoran Desert portfolio sites in its Desert Bird Conservation Plan (McCreedy and others, 2009). Research presented here demonstrates that bird communities within a well-managed and remote Sonoran Desert portfolio site can nonetheless be negatively affected by human-caused stressors like fire and Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism, which originate from beyond the Kofa NWR’s boundaries. In chapter 1, we examine how avian productivity can be influenced by timing of nest initiation. We demonstrate that (1) late nesting dates are correlated with low winter precipitation levels, a condition expected to occur in greater frequency in coming decades due to climate change (Seager and others, 2007) and that (2) late nesting dates result in decreased productivity, due to higher rates of nest depredation and, in the case of an open-cup nesting species, higher rates of brood parasitism experienced later in the breeding season. The brood parasite, the Brown-headed Cowbird, appears to forage and roost on agricultural lands north of the Kofa NWR’s boundary. From that location, they commute to the refuge to parasitize other passerine bird nests. Drought and subsequent loss in primary production have been correlated with decreased productivity for birds that breed in arid habitats (Preston and Rotenberry, 2006; Chase and others, 2005; Johnson and others, 2002; Morrison and Bolger, 2002; Brown and Li, 1996; Anderson and Anderson, 1973), yet drought’s standing as a threat to bird populations has been underestimated in recent regional conservation planning efforts (McCreedy and others, 2009; Latta and others, 1999). In chapter 2, we examine the effects of the King Valley fire on breeding and migrant birds within the Kofa NWR. This fire was caused by incendiary weapons testing within Yuma Proving Ground, south of the Kofa NWRboundary (Esque and others, 2013). We found large differences in spring migrant and breeding species abundance and richness between bird count stations within the 2005 King Valley fire zone and bird count stations immediately outside the fire perimeter. Habitat loss to fire, and the subsequent slow regeneration of a Sonoran Desert flora that is not well adapted to fire disturbance, is a recognized threat to bird populations (McCreedy and others, 2009; Latta, 1999), and of all Sonoran Desert wildlife, birds may be the most impacted by loss of perennial Sonoran Desert vegetation to fire (Esque and Schwalbe, 2002). We conclude that decreases in both breeding and migrant use of washes within burned areas will likely persist into the long term (>25 years) due to slow return rates of xeroriparian woodlands lost in the fire.

Arizona↗

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

Physical characteristics of the lower San Joaquin River, California, in relation to white sturgeon spawning habitat, 2011–14

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service confirmed that white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) recently spawned in the lower San Joaquin River, California. Decreases in the San Francisco Bay estuary white sturgeon population have led to an increased effort to understand their migration behavior and habitat preferences. The preferred spawning habitat of other white sturgeon (for example, those in the Columbia and Klamath Rivers) is thought to be areas that have high water velocity, deep pools, and coarse bed material. Coarse bed material (pebbles and cobbles), in particular, is important for the survival of white sturgeon eggs and larvae. Knowledge of the physical characteristics of the lower San Joaquin River can be used to preserve sturgeon spawning habitat and lead to management decisions that could help increase the San Francisco Bay estuary white sturgeon population. Between 2011 and 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, assessed selected reaches and tributaries of the lower river in relation to sturgeon spawning habitat by (1) describing selected spawning reaches in terms of habitat-related physical characteristics (such as water depth and velocity, channel slope, and bed material) of the lower San Joaquin River between its confluences with the Stanislaus and Merced Rivers, (2) describing variations in these physical characteristics during wet and dry years, and (3) identifying potential reasons for these variations. The lower San Joaquin River was divided into five study reaches. Although data were collected from all study reaches, three subreaches where the USFWS collected viable eggs at multiple sites in 2011–12 from Orestimba Creek to Sturgeon Bend were of special interest. Water depth and velocity were measured using two different approaches—channel cross sections and longitudinal profiles—and data were collected using an acoustic Doppler current profiler. During the first year of data collection (water year 2011), runoff was greatest, and gaged streamflow, measured as discharge, peaked at 875 cubic meters per second in the lower San Joaquin River. Also during that year, water velocity was generally between 0.6 and 0.9 meters per second, and depth was typically between 2.5 and 4.5 meters, but water depth exceeded 6 meters in several pools. Water year 2011 was classified as a “ wet ” year. Later water years were classified as either “ dry ” (water year 2012) or “ critical ” (water years 2013 and 2014). During the drier years, water was shallower, and velocities were slower. The streambed aggraded in several areas during the study. At Sturgeon Bend, for example, which had the deepest pool measured in 2011 (maximum depth was 14 meters), about 8 meters of sediment was deposited by 2014. The bed of the lower San Joaquin River was predominately sand, except in areas downstream from the mouth of Del Puerto Creek. A large amount of sand, gravel, and cobble was deposited at the mouth of Del Puerto Creek, and in the 9.5 kilometers downstream from the mouth of Del Puerto Creek, we encountered several gravel bars and patches of gravel-size (8–64 millimeters) bed material. Del Puerto and Orestimba Creeks drain from the Coast Ranges on the west side of the river. Only small quantities of gravel-size bed material were observed in the reach downstream from Orestimba Creek, indicating Orestimba Creek does not deliver much coarse sediment to the lower San Joaquin River. Del Puerto Creek appeared to be the primary source of gravels suitable for white sturgeon spawning in the lower San Joaquin River, and thus, it is important for the long-term spawning success of sturgeon in the San Joaquin River.

California↗

Mass loading of selected major and trace elements in Lake Fork Creek near Leadville, Colorado, September-October 2001

A mass-loading study of Lake Fork Creek of the Arkansas River between Sugarloaf Dam and the mouth was completed in September-October 2001 to help ascertain the following: (1) variation of pH and aqueous constituent concentrations (calcium, sulfate, alkalinity, aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc) and their relation to toxicity standards along the study reach; (2) location and magnitude of sources of metal loading to Lake Fork Creek; (3) amount and locations of metal attenuation; (4) the effect of streamside wetlands on metal transport from contributing mine tunnels; and (5) the effect of organic-rich inflow from the Leadville National Fish Hatchery on water quality in Lake Fork Creek. The study was done in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Constituent concentrations and pH showed variable patterns over the study reach. Hardness-based acute and chronic toxicity standards were exceeded for some inflows and some constituents. However, stream concentrations did not exceed standards except for zinc starting in the upper parts of the study reach and extending to just downstream from the inflow from the Leadville National Fish Hatchery. Dilution from that inflow lowered stream zinc concentrations to less than acute and chronic toxicity standards. The uppermost 800 meters of the study reach that contained inflow from the Bartlett, Dinero, and Nelson mine tunnels and the Dinero wetland was the greatest source of loading for manganese and zinc. A middle section of the study reach that extended approximately 2 kilometers upstream from the National Fish Hatchery inflow to just downstream from that inflow was the largest source of aluminum, copper, iron, and lead loading. The loading was partially from the National Fish Hatchery inflow but also from unknown sources upstream from that inflow, possibly ground water. The largest sources for calcium and sulfate load to the stream were the parts of the study reach containing inflow from the tribu-taries Halfmoon Creek (calcium) and Willow Creek (sulfate). The Arkansas River and its tributaries upstream from Lake Fork Creek were the source of most of the calcium (70 percent), sulfate (82 percent), manganese (77 percent), lead (78 percent), and zinc (95 percent) loads in the Arkansas River downstream from the Lake Fork confluence. In contrast, Lake Fork Creek was the major source of aluminum (68 percent), copper (65 percent), and iron (87 percent) loads to the Arkansas River downstream from the confluence. Attenuation was not important for calcium, sulfate, or iron. However, other metals loads were reduced up to 81 percent over the study reach (aluminum, 25 percent; copper, 20 percent; manganese, 81 percent; lead, 30 percent; zinc, 72 percent). Metal attenuation in the stream occurred primarily in three locations (1) the irrigation diversion ditch; (2) the beaver pond complex extending from upstream from the Colorado Gulch inflow to just downstream from that inflow; and (3) the stream reach that included the inflow from Willow Creek. The most likely attenuation mechanism is precipitation of metal oxides and hydroxides (primarily manganese), and sorption or coprecipitation of trace elements with the precipitating phase. A mass-balance calculation indicated that the wetland between the Dinero Tunnel and Lake Fork Creek removed iron, had little effect on zinc mass load, and was a source for, or was releasing, aluminum and manganese. In contrast, the wetland that occurred between the Siwatch Tunnel and Lake Fork Creek removed aluminum, iron, manganese, and zinc from the tunnel drainage before it entered the creek. Inflow from the National Fish Hatchery increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations in Lake Fork Creek and slightly changed the composition of the dissolved organic carbon. However, dissolved organic carbon loads increased in the stream reach downs

Colorado↗

Streamflow characteristics and trends at selected streamgages in southwest and south-central Kansas

Historical data for nine selected streamgages in southwest and south-central Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism to assist with the effective management of Etheostoma cragini (Arkansas darter) habitats and populations in the State. Changing streamflow conditions, such as a reduction or elimination of streamflow, may adversely affect the Arkansas darter. Priority basins for the Arkansas darter represented by the selected streamgages include the Cimarron River, Rattlesnake Creek, the North Fork Ninnescah River, the South Fork Ninnescah River, the Medicine Lodge River, and the Chikaskia River. Streamflow conditions were assessed using annual streamflow characteristics computed for the period of record for each of the selected streamgages. Specific streamflow characteristics computed were mean discharge, mean base flow, 90th-percentile flow, 10th-percentile flow, minimum 7-day mean flow, minimum 28-day mean flow, number of days of flow less than 1 cubic foot per second, and number of zero-flow days. Two of the priority basins had statistically significant decreases in annual mean discharge during the period of record. In the Cimarron River Basin, there was a pronounced multidecadal decrease in the magnitude and variability of annual mean discharge. Concurrently, the percentage of the annual mean discharge that was contributed by base flow increased. In the Rattlesnake Creek Basin, there was a pre-1985 decrease in annual mean discharge. Typically, in these two basins, significant decreases were indicated for mean base flow, 90th-percentile flow, 10th-percentile flow, minimum 7-day mean flow, and minimum 28-day mean flow. No significant trend in annual mean discharge was indicated for the North Fork Ninnescah, South Fork Ninnescah, Medicine Lodge, and Chikaskia River Basins. For the Medicine Lodge and Chikaskia River Basins as well as the downstream part of the South Fork Ninnescah River Basin, a significant increase in mean base flow and 10th-percentile flow was indicated. Also, for the latter two basins, a significant increase was indicated for minimum 7-day mean flow. Factors investigated to explain long-term trends in annual mean discharge, or lack thereof, included precipitation and groundwater withdrawals. Annual precipitation in the study area varied substantially from 1951 to 2013 with no pronounced long-term trend. Thus, a precipitation-related explanation for the significant decrease in annual mean discharge in the Cimarron River and Rattlesnake Creek Basins was not supported. Because the most pronounced decreases in annual mean discharge were in the basin with the largest groundwater-level declines (that is, the Cimarron River Basin), both in terms of magnitude and areal extent, it is likely that groundwater withdrawals were a primary, if not dominant, causative factor. The occurrence of extremely low-flow (less than 1 cubic foot per second) and zero-flow days varied by basin and year. Typically, such days occurred in the summer and autumn for all basins.

Kansas↗