Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Risk Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Factors influencing landslide occurrence in low-relief formerly glaciated landscapes: Landslide inventory and susceptibility analysis in Minnesota, USA

In landscapes recently impacted by continental glaciation, landslides may occur where topographic relief has been generated by the drainage of glacial lakes and ensuing post-glacial fluvial network development into unconsolidated glacially derived sediments and exhumed bedrock. To investigate linkages among environmental variables, post-glacial landscape development, and landslides, we created a landslide inventory of nearly 10,000 landslides in five regions of the formerly glaciated low-relief state of Minnesota, USA. Multivariate logistic regression indicates the importance of slope angle, lithology, and the development of stream valleys to landslide distribution. Areas underlain by fine-grained glaciolacustrine and nearshore deposits that are incised by streams are particularly prone to shallow (<1-2 m depth) landslides. Landslides also occur in a wide range of glacial and fluvial deposits, and as rockfall in layered Paleozoic sedimentary rocks in central and southern Minnesota and Precambrian igneous and sedimentary rocks in northeastern Minnesota. Although no more than 1-2% of the studied regions are susceptible to landslides, they can pose risk to life and safety, damage infrastructure, and impact water quality. The combination of recently generated low-relief steep slopes, extensive unconsolidated sediments, and layered sedimentary bedrock make this formerly glaciated landscape more susceptible to landslides than current national-scale models indicate.

Minnesota↗
USGS2005

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex. [Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]

On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in <6 weeks came ashore near J. N. ?Ding? Darling National Wildlife Refuge (JNDDNWR) Complex, Sanibel Island, FL. Hurricane Charley passed just north of Sanibel Island with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (123 knots) and a storm surge of 0.3-2.7 m. We surveyed storm damage to JNDDNWR Complex from 20-24 September 2004. Our goals were to assess damage to: wetlands for Mangrove Cuckoos (Coccyzus minor) and Black-whiskered Vireo (Vireo altiloquus), waterbird rookeries/mangrove islands, impoundments, sea grass beds, and hardwood hammocks. The refuge complex sustained moderate to catastrophic damage to vegetation, especially mangrove forests and waterbird nesting or roosting islands. Lumpkin Island, Hemp Island, and Bird Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). Shell Mound Trail of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area was probably slight. Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries, we recommended a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees. Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), we recommend that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk. Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. Potential loss of wetlands may be prevented by water level monitoring, locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey. As an important monitoring goal, we recommend that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Book↗
USGS2018

Methods used for the collection and analysis of chemical and biological data for the Tapwater Exposure Study, United States, 2016–17

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Environmental Health Mission Area, initiated the Tapwater Exposure Study as part of an infrastructure project to assess human exposure to potential threats from complex mixtures of contaminants. In the pilot phase (2016), samples were collected from 11 States throughout the United States, and in the second phase (2017), the study focused on the Greater Chicago area, including North and South Chicago, Illinois, and East Chicago, Indiana. Residential tapwater samples were collected at private residences during both phases, and during the first phase, samples were collected from Federal office buildings and from one office 19-liter water-bottle source. During the second phase, raw intake and treated (pre-distributional) water samples also were collected from four drinking-water treatment facilities in the Greater Chicago area. Samples were sent to laboratories at the USGS, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, and Colorado School of Mines Center for Environmental Risk Assessment, for potential drinking-water pathogens, chemical, and bioassay analyses. These analyses included more than 400 chemicals such as trace elements, steroid hormones, pharmaceuticals, volatile organic compounds, pesticides, per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances, cyanotoxins, and other organic compounds. The in vitro bioassay analyses included estrogen, androgen, and glucocorticoid receptor activity.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Natural resource condition assessment: Channel Islands National Park

The Natural Resource Condition Assessment (NRCA) Program aims to provide documentation about the current conditions of important Park natural resources through a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge. Findings from the NRCA will help Channel Islands National Park (CINP) managers to develop near-term management priorities. The central objectives of this assessment were to evaluate the current conditions and trends of key Park resources, identify important knowledge gaps, and determine key stressors and threats. Because a recent report provided an assessment of marine resources (Engle 2006), which constitute 50% of the park, this NRCA focused on terrestrial resources. For this NRCA, CINP resource managers identified that the greatest Park need was to know whether or not vegetation (primarily woody vegetation) is recovering on the Channel Islands and how this may be influencing recovery of the native terrestrial vertebrates. To address this, the CINP NRCA team evaluated the condition of island vegetation and vertebrate communities using both: 1) already available, summarized information from reports, theses, and journal articles and 2) new analyses of recently available, existing data collected on the islands. Descriptions of specific methods used to analyze available data by the NRCA team are provided within the assessment sections in Chapter 4 of this report. The Team used the Vital Signs indicators as identified by Fancy et al. (2009) for monitoring the condition of Natural Resources in U.S. National Parks. Using this framework, the focal study resource components were the five CINP islands, because these are the bio-geophysical resources of greatest interest to the CINP. Each of the islands has its own unique history of human impacts, ecological conditions, restoration efforts, and natural resource monitoring. The Team evaluated island scrub recovery by assessing changes over time in two metrics: 1) vegetation community structure (species composition, cover, and spatial extent), and 2) vertebrate abundance, relative to the reference condition of each island. The reference conditions for this NRCA were the particular island’s ecological state prior to European settlement or ranching, which represent the ecological state to which the NPS desires the park return. For each metric, the Team determined the Reference Conditions/Values, Current Condition, Trend, and Recovery Potential (based on a review of the literature and from the NRCA team’s analysis of newly available data), Threats and Stressors, Data Gaps, Overall Condition. A qualitative statement of overall current condition was created for each metric, after all data and literature relevant to the measures (i.e., vegetation and vertebrates) of each resource component (i.e., island) were reviewed and evaluated. All information gathered for this NRCA is available and managed by CINP, so that the compilation of resources would be available not only for the assessment team, but will be provided for future Park reference. Chapter 1 of this NRCA provides a descriptive background of NRCAs. Chapter 2 provides Park-wide natural resource background information, while Chapter 3 describes the overall methodological approach used in this assessment. Chapter 4 provides a detailed assessment of each island’s condition, which is then summarized Park-wide and for each island in Chapter 5. Based on both vegetation recovery and vertebrate population abundances, our assessment found Santa Cruz Island (SCI), Santa Rosa Island (SRI), San Miguel Island (SMI), and Anacapa Island (AI) to be, overall, in moderate condition and slowly recovering following the removal of non-native herbivores. The condition of Santa Barbara Island (SBI) is poor and remains in a state that is not likely to improve without assisted recovery by the Park. All islands have exhibited some level of native vegetation recovery, with most of the observed natural recovery occurring on SCI, SRI, SMI, and AI; very little recovery has occurred at present on SBI. Vegetation recovery is uneven across each island and largely limited to mesic areas, such as north-facing slopes. Areas that will likely require some assisted recovery efforts are those that are: at risk of erosion, isolated, lacking native seed banks, and plagued with high competition of non-native grasses and other invasives. Some plant communities, such as exposed upland vegetation on SRI, also have lower natural recovery potential and will likely require assisted recovery. The overall condition of the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate species generally appears to be good and improving, with high potential for further recovery to reach pre-ranching era reference conditions. This is particularly true for vertebrates on SCI, SRI, and SMI. Although there are limited data for AI, the data that are available suggest that vertebrates on that island are in good condition and improving as well. However, the condition of SBI vertebrates is only moderate, with natural recovery potential being low, with many landbird species’ populations currently declining, extinct, or not improving. An overarching theme across the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate populations is that many of them are in good condition because the particular animals are habitat generalists, so their population dynamics are not strongly tied to habitat conditions. However, those landbirds associated with riparian vegetation are not showing signs of recovery across the Park islands, and riparian areas appear to be one of the habitats with limited natural recovery potential on the islands. Overwhelmingly, the most critical data gap that emerged from our analysis was the lack of current vegetation maps for most of the islands (AI, SCI, SRI, SMI). The lack of this information made it difficult to assess spatial changes in island vegetation over time, and to relate those changes to observed changes in vertebrate species abundances. Therefore, we were limited in our spatial assessment of vegetation recovery for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, and were only able to relate the current vegetation with island landbird analysis for SBI. Another common theme across islands was the lack of information on best techniques for shrub reintroduction and recovery, and the success of invasive species removal and re-vegetation efforts. Abundance, distribution, and habitat affinities of reptiles and amphibians are poorly known for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, making it difficult to assess their population condition and trends, and their potential responses to shrub recovery. Mammal and landbird populations are reasonably well-sampled across most of the islands, but data are lacking for most vertebrates from AI, especially West and Middle AI where no vertebrate sampling occurs. The population status, cause of declines, and recovery needs are lacking for several landbird species across multiple islands, including loggerhead shrikes ( Lanius ludovicianus ssp.) on SCI and SRI, and Santa Cruz Island rufous crowned sparrows ( Aimophila ruficeps obscura ) on AI. Additionally, island song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia graminea ) remain extirpated on SBI and data are needed for assessing their recovery potential on the island. The potentially major threats facing the islands’ flora and fauna today are: areas of continued erosion, potential new non-native introductions, and climate change. The Park islands have already experienced warming over the last several decades due to human-induced climate change, and are projected to experience continued warming. These increasing stresses imposed by climate change may slow and inhibit natural recovery potentials for island fauna, and especially flora.

California↗
USGS2011

Abiotic & biotic responses of the Colorado River to controlled floods at Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, USA

Closure of Glen Canyon Dam reduced sand supply to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park by about 94% while its operation has also eroded the park's sandbar habitats. Three controlled floods released from the dam since 1995 suggest that sandbars might be rebuilt and maintained, but only if repeated floods are timed to follow tributary sand deliveries below the dam. Monitoring data show that sandbars are dynamic and that their erosion after bar building is positively related with mean daily discharge and negatively related with tributary sand production after controlled floods. The March 2008 flood affected non-native rainbow trout abundance in the Lees Ferry tailwater, which supports a blue ribbon fishery. Downstream trout dispersal from the tailwater results in negative competitive interactions and predation on endangered humpback chub. Early survival rates of age-0 trout increased more than fourfold following the 2008 flood, and twofold in 2009, relative to prior years (2006-2007). Hatch-date analysis indicated that early survival rates were much higher for cohorts that emerged about 2 months after the 2008 flood relative to cohorts that emerged earlier that year. The 2009 survival data suggest that tailwater habitat improvements persisted for at least a year, but apparently decreased in 2010. Increased early survival rates for trout coincided with the increased availability of higher quality drifting food items after the 2008 flood owing to an increase in midges and black flies, preferred food items of rainbow trout. Repeated floods from the dam might sustainably rebuild and maintain sandbars if released when new tributary sand is available below the tailwater. Spring flooding might also sustain increased trout abundance and benefit the tailwater fishery, but also be a potential risk to humpback chub in Grand Canyon.

Arizona;Nevada;Utah↗
USGS2017

Dispersal hazards of Pseudogymnoascus destructans by bats and human activity at hibernacula in summer

Bats occupying hibernacula during summer are exposed to Pseudogymnoascus destructans ( Pd ), the causative agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), and may contribute to its dispersal. Furthermore, equipment and clothing exposed to cave environments are a potential source for human-assisted spread of Pd . To explore dispersal hazards for Pd during the nonhibernal season, we tested samples that were collected from bats, the environment, and equipment at hibernacula in the eastern US between 18 July–22 August 2012. Study sites included six hibernacula known to harbor bats with Pd with varying winter-count impacts from WNS and two hibernacula (control sites) without prior history of WNS. Nucleic acid from Pd was detected from wing-skin swabs or guano from 40 of 617 bats (7% prevalence), including males and females of five species at five sites where WNS had previously been confirmed as well as from one control site. Analysis of guano collected during summer demonstrated a higher apparent prevalence of Pd among bats (17%, 37/223) than did analysis of wing-skin swabs (1%, 4/617). Viable Pd cultured from wing skin (2%, 1/56) and low recapture rates at all sites suggested bats harboring Pd during summer could contribute to pathogen dispersal. Additionally, Pd DNA was detected on clothing and trapping equipment used inside and near hibernacula, and Pd was detected in sediment more readily than in swabs of hibernaculum walls. Statistically significant differences in environmental abundance of Pd were not detected among sites, but prevalence of Pd differed between sites and among bat species. Overall, bats using hibernacula in summer can harbor Pd on their skin and in their guano, and demonstration of Pd on clothing, traps, and other equipment used at hibernacula during summertime within the WNS-affected region indicates risk for pathogen dispersal during the nonhibernal season.

Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia↗
USGS2021

Demography and loss of genetic diversity in two insular populations of the bobcat (Lynx rufus)

Among felids worldwide, only 6 of 38 species have stable or increasing populations, and most felid species are threatened by anthropogenic influences, especially habitat loss and fragmentation. We documented changes in genetic diversity in an isolated, reintroduced population of bobcats on Cumberland Island (CUIS), Georgia, USA, compared to another bobcat population on Kiawah Island, South Carolina, USA, that was naturally established and experiences limited immigration from the mainland. The CUIS population declined from 32 reintroduced bobcats in 1989 to 10–24 individuals during 2012–2019, and observed heterozygosity declined from 0.742 to 0.634 (SD = 0.240). Observed heterozygosity of bobcats on Kiawah was 0.699 (SD = 0.153). We estimated that one bobcat immigrated to Kiawah Island every 5.3 years. We compared the predictions of a novel population viability analysis ( PVA ) to empirical estimates of abundance and genetic diversity on CUIS and used our PVA to identify management actions that are likely to support long-term viability. Mean heterozygosity from the PVA (0.588, SD = 0.065) was within 1 standard deviation of the empirical estimate. The PVA estimated the population would decline following population restoration due to loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding depression. Translocations of one female every four years would stabilize allele heterozygosity similar to the Kiawah Island population, but even translocations of two females every two years would not restore heterozygosity to founder levels. The PVA predicted no management action would result in a one in five probability of extinction within 50 years of reintroduction, but all translocation strategies nearly eliminated extinction risk through 100 years.

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2023

Floodwater drainage assessment of Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska, 2020–22

Offutt Air Force Base, south of Omaha, Nebraska, experienced major flooding during the March 2019 flood event because of the proximity of the base to the confluence of the Missouri River and nearby tributaries, which exceeded flood stages. Postflood, standing water remained through much of the year, attracting waterfowl and other birds and posing a major safety risk to aircraft. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, began a study in 2020 to describe the hydrologic processes that affect the persistence of standing water on Offutt Air Force Base. Existing site data, reviewed in concert with groundwater and surface-water elevation data collected for the study, indicate varying hydrologic responses between two areas of concern (AOCs), which can be linked to differences in subsurface geology and changes in flows of the Missouri River. An inundation map indicated that standing water would be present throughout Papillion Creek Ditch in AOC 1 and would extend upstream to AOC 2 during flow events greater than 771 cubic feet per second. A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System model and a flow-duration analysis were used to infer that many of the surface-water drainage problems experienced in 2019 were the result of backwater conditions caused by higher streamflows in the Missouri River.

Nebraska↗
USGS2022

Agricultural land use shapes dispersal in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

Background Dispersal is a fundamental process to animal population dynamics and gene flow. In white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus ), dispersal also presents an increasingly relevant risk for the spread of infectious diseases. Across their wide range, WTD dispersal is believed to be driven by a suite of landscape and host behavioral factors, but these can vary by region, season, and sex. Our objectives were to (1) identify dispersal events in Wisconsin WTD and determine drivers of dispersal rates and distances, and (2) determine how landscape features (e.g., rivers, roads) structure deer dispersal paths. Methods We developed an algorithmic approach to detect dispersal events from GPS collar data for 590 juvenile, yearling, and adult WTD. We used statistical models to identify host and landscape drivers of dispersal rates and distances, including the role of agricultural land use, the traversability of the landscape, and potential interactions between deer. We then performed a step selection analysis to determine how landscape features such as agricultural land use, elevation, rivers, and roads affected deer dispersal paths. Results Dispersal predominantly occurred in juvenile males, of which 64.2% dispersed, with dispersal events uncommon in other sex and age classes. Juvenile male dispersal probability was positively associated with the proportion of the natal range that was classified as agricultural land use, but only during the spring. Dispersal distances were typically short (median 5.77 km, range: 1.3–68.3 km), especially in the fall. Further, dispersal distances were positively associated with agricultural land use in potential dispersal paths but negatively associated with the number of proximate deer in the natal range. Lastly, we found that, during dispersal, juvenile males typically avoided agricultural land use but selected for areas near rivers and streams. Conclusion Land use—particularly agricultural—was a key driver of dispersal rates, distances, and paths in Wisconsin WTD. In addition, our results support the importance of deer social environments in shaping dispersal behavior. Our findings reinforce knowledge of dispersal ecology in WTD and how landscape factors—including major rivers, roads, and land-use patterns—structure host gene flow and potential pathogen transmission.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Building a state-space life cycle model for naturally produced Snake River fall Chinook salmon

In 1992, Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were listed for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (NMFS 1992) and the population remained below 1000 individuals until 2000. Since then, returns from natural production has rebounded to over 20,000 spawners owing to a host of factors including reduced harvest (Peters et al. 2001), stable minimum spawning flows (Groves and Chandler 1999), summer flow augmentation (Connor et al. 2003), predator control (Beamesderfer et al. 1996), hatchery supplementation (Rosenberger et al. 2017), improved juvenile passage structures (Adams et al. 2014), summer spill operations (Perry et al. 2006; Adams et al. 2008), and periods of favorable ocean conditions and food availability (Logerwell et al. 2003; Peterson et al. 2014). Given this change in abundance coincident with numerous management actions and fluctuation in environmental drivers, quantifying which factors contributed to the observed rebound in natural production can provide critical insights into future management actions for this at-risk population. Multistage life cycle models provide a powerful analytical framework for understating how each life stage of a population contributes to population growth rate (Moussalli and Hilborn 1986; Greene and Beechie 2004). Multistage models may also be used as an analytical framework to explicitly estimate demographic parameters of a population model. This approach has an advantage over single-stage stock-recruitment models by allowing population growth rates to be partitioned among life stages rather than aggregated over an entire life cycle. Such partitioning allows for estimating 1) stage-specific density dependence, and 2) stage-specific effects of environmental factors or management actions. For example, Zabel et al. (2006) estimated parameters of a multistage model used in the context of a population viability analysis for spring/summer Chinook salmon in the Snake River, but such an approach has yet to be applied to fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin. Typically, data informing estimates of abundance at particular “check points” in the life cycle determines the complexity of the multistage model that can be fit to the data. For fall Chinook salmon, we are developing a two-stage model that encompasses: 1) upstream passage of spawners at Lower Granite Dam (LGR) to the subsequent downstream passage of their progeny at the dam, and 2) downstream passage of juveniles at LGR to their subsequent return from the ocean and passage at the Dam 2‒6 years later. This approach partitions the life cycle of fall Chinook salmon both spatially and temporally, which allows us to fit and compare alternative models with covariates specific to each stage. Our previous report to the ISAB (Zabel et al. 2013) detailed methods for estimating abundance of naturally produced adults and juveniles passing Lower Granite Dam, which provides the requisite data for fitting a two-stage model. The intent of this report is to describe the structure of the two-stage life cycle model, present preliminary results from fitting the model to data, and outline future directions and developments. As is clear from the diversity of models presented in this report, “life cycle models” range from very simple theoretically based population models (e.g., the Beverton-Holt stock- recruitment model) to very complex spatially explicit simulation models linked to hydrosystem hydrodynamic models (e.g., the COMPASS model for a single transition in a life cycle model, Zabel et al. 2008). We chose to develop a model of intermediate complexity that casts the two- stage life cycle model in a state-space framework (Newman et al. 2014). We chose to use a state-space framework implemented in a Bayesian framework because: • It provides both a statistical estimation framework for retrospective statistical analysis and a stochastic simulation framework for prospective analysis to evaluate alternative management actions. • Abundance estimates are uncertain. A state-space framework accounts for observation uncertainty in the abundance estimates and other data (e.g., age structure) while simultaneously estimating process uncertainty. • It allows for missing data. By drawing missing data from an appropriate probability model, uncertainty owing to missing data can be propagated without having to omit data or assume fixed values for missing data. Thus, a two-stage state-space life cycle model for fall Chinook salmon strikes an appropriate balance between model complexity, tractability, and applicability given the goals of performing both retrospective and prospective analysis to guide future management of this population.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit recovery planning through structured decision making

The endangered Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit (CBPR) faces multiple threats, particularly increasing risk of larger and more intense wildfires due to climate change, emerging disease, and sagebrush habitat loss due to agriculture and development. Through the use of conservation breeding, the CBPR wild population grew from a low of 16 individuals captured in 2001 to over 100 individuals in two subpopulations in 2024. However, these subpopulations are geographically proximate, with potential risk that both subpopulations could be affected by a single wildfire or disease event. Additionally, a succession of setbacks in the breeding program has prompted a natural re-evaluation point for the CBPR conservation program. We undertook a structured decision-making (SDM) process with participants from both Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a strategy that is sustainable and implementable for guiding management in the coming decades across the range of the CBPR, taking into account changing conditions and updated information. A population model that incorporated both demographic and high impact event uncertainties was developed to test how alternative strategies – defined by conservation breeding program, vaccination, and translocation components – affect CBPR population growth and cost objectives. Based on analysis of the model results, we identified the following actions that appear to have the greatest potential to allow WDFW and USFWS to meet their conservation objectives for CBPR: Continue conservation breeding program, and possibly expand to include an island subpopulation (an isolated, unfenced area that can serve as a source for rabbits while requiring fewer management inputs) Continue Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV2) annual vaccinations in both breeding and wild populations When juveniles are available for translocation, prioritize recovery areas that are in the establishing phase In addition, while not analyzed explicitly in the model, discussions during the SDM process led to the identification of the following actions, which the group considered to have potential to benefit the CBPR either directly or indirectly: Increase the amount of suitable habitat available to pygmy rabbits Increase protections for existing and potential recovery areas Design future monitoring to better estimate survival and reproduction, with an emphasis on understanding how these vital rates vary between wild and semi-captive individuals, between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and as a function of habitat factors

BioRxiv↗
USGS2021

Integrated tools for identifying optimal flow regimes and evaluating alternative minimum flows for recovering at-risk salmonids in a highly managed system

Water resource managers are faced with difficult decisions on how to satisfy human water needs while maintaining or restoring riverine ecosystems. Decision sciences have developed approaches and tools that can be used to break down difficult water management decisions into their component parts. An essential aspect of these approaches is the use of quantitative models to evaluate alternative management strategies. Here, we describe four integrated decision support models for evaluating the effect of flows on two life history stages of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and Steelhead ( O. mykiss ). We then use constrained nonlinear optimization to identify optimal flow regimes for the water year type with the least available water. These flow regimes were then used by managers to develop candidate minimum flow strategies that were evaluated using forward simulation and sensitivity analyses. We found that optimal flow regimes differed markedly from existing regulations and varied among species and life history stages. However, evaluation of tradeoffs among the four competing objectives indicated relatively minimal losses for most objectives when the optimal flows were based on equally weighting the objectives. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water temperature was the primary driver of estimated outcomes and suggested that managers consider alternative means of managing temperatures. Decision sciences have created multiple analytical tools and approaches that simplify complex problems, such as water resource management, and we believe that water resource management would benefit from their increased use.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Identifying information gaps in predicting winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon

The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the availability of critical habitat during winter months in six estuaries. Large information gaps, especially related to critical estuarine habitat for juveniles, hinder recovery efforts to protect these habitats and assess risks from emerging threats. Using Apalachicola Bay, Florida, as a model system, we developed and analyzed a preliminary Bayesian network model so that we could identify knowledge gaps (i.e., where expert knowledge was lacking) and data gaps (i.e., where data were unavailable) that limit the ability to assess the quantity of critical estuarine habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon. The model hypothesized habitat availability per winter month in estuarine habitat under alternative scenarios of river discharge and length of the winter foraging season. A search for geospatial data sets revealed that the largest gap involved salinity, temperature, and oxygen (i.e., water condition) monitoring data, with data available only for Apalachicola Bay. For the Apalachicola Bay model, data gaps prevented the development of 53% of water condition geospatial data sets and a sensitivity analysis showed that water condition data most limited the ability to predict habitat availability. Expert knowledge was low, and conditional certainty scores showed that the relationships with the lowest certainty were abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Reducing information gaps could aid the development of a model that is appropriate for informing management. Future efforts could prioritize the expansion of water monitoring within critical habitat estuaries and predicting abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Bayesian network models can easily incorporate prior and new information for complex systems. Thus, our model could be updated as future research and monitoring efforts close these information gaps.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Prairie grouse and wind energy: The state of the science and implications for risk assessment

How to shape the anticipated build-out of industrial-scale renewable energy in a way that minimizes risk to wildlife remains contentious. This challenge is well-illustrated in the grasslands and shrub-steppe of North America. Here, several endemic species of grouse are the focus of intensive, long-term conservation action by a host of governmental and non-governmental entities, many of whom are now asking: will anticipated increases in the number of wind-energy facilities exacerbate declines or prevent recovery of these species? To help answer this question, we synthesized the potential consequences of wind-energy development on prairie grouse. Published literature on behavior or demography of prairie-grouse at wind-energy facilities is sparse, with studies having been conducted at only 5 different facilities in the United States. Only two of these studies met the standard for robust impact analysis by collecting pre-construction data and using control sites or gradient designs. Published results from only one of the species Greater Prairie-Chicken were available for >1 facility. Most studies also drew conclusions based on short (<4 years) periods of study, which is potentially problematic when studying these highly philopatric species. Given these caveats, we found that, in the short-term, adult survival and nest success appear largely unaffected in populations exposed to wind-energy facilities. However, changes in habitat use by female Greater Sage-Grouse and female Greater Prairie-Chicken during some seasons and reduced lek persistence among male Greater Prairie-Chickens near wind turbines suggest behavioral responses that may have demographic consequences. Prairie grouse can coexist with wind-energy facilities in some cases, at least in the short term, but important uncertainties remain, including the potential for long-term, cumulative effects of the extensive development expected as states attempt to meet goals for generating electricity from renewable sources.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2018

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗
USGS2013

Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

California↗
USGS2026

Valuing socio-economic and ecological attributes of forested watershed restoration to reduce wildfire risk in the southwestern U.S.

Forest restoration in a watershed can provide numerous ecological improvements and social benefits, including reducing the risk of extreme wildfire. Understanding the values of the accrued benefits can be used to evaluate the use of funds to support restoration. The Rio Grande watershed is a vast watershed covering approximately 335,000 mile 2 (867,646 km 2 ). The Rio Grande watershed provides a host of ecosystem services and recreation opportunities and supports municipal water supplies. We estimate the non-market values of forest restoration in the Rio Grande watershed using a choice experiment (CE) approach. While the ecological benefits are established in literature, we focus on the social characteristics, capturing the human-forest system in a comprehensive manner. Our results indicate a significant willingness to pay (WTP) for improving air quality, reducing private property damage, and creating local jobs, with the highest WTP for job creation. Split-sample analysis indicates respondents residing within the watershed highly value the socio-economic attributes of the restoration, while ecological attributes are preferred more outside of the watershed. Our results provide insights into the benefits of multi-dimensional services from forest restoration activities in a watershed.

New Mexico↗
USGS2022

Limits to coseismic landslides triggered by Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes

Landslides are a significant hazard and dominant feature throughout the landscape of the Pacific Northwest. However, the hazard and risk posed by coseismic landslides triggered by great Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes is highly uncertain due to a lack of local and global data. Despite a wealth of other geologic evidence for past earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, no landslides have been definitively linked to such earthquakes, even in areas otherwise highly susceptible to failure. While shallow landslides may not leave a lasting topographical signature in the landscape, there are thousands of deep-seated landslides in Cascadia, and these deposits often persist for hundreds of years and multiple earthquake cycles. Synthesizing newly developed inventories of dated large deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range, we use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of these types of landslides that could have been triggered during past great Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes. Statistical analysis of high-precision dendrochronology ages of landslide-dammed lakes and surface roughness-dated bedrock landslides reveal Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes may have triggered 0–15 % of large deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range over multiple earthquake cycles. Our results refine estimates from previous studies and further suggest that coseismic triggering accounts for a small fraction of the total deep-seated bedrock landslides mapped in coastal Cascadia. However, if the real rate of coseismic landslide triggering during CSZ earthquakes is near our estimated upper bound for the 1700 CSZ earthquake, we estimate up to 2400 coseismic large deep-seated landslides could occur in the Oregon Coast Range in a single earthquake. These findings suggest Cascadia is consistent with global observations from other subduction zones and that coseismic landslides may still represent a serious geohazard in the region.

Oregon↗