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USGS1999

Stress transfer by the 1988-1989 M=5.3 and 5.4 Lake Elsman foreshocks to the Loma Prieta fault: Unclamping at the site of peak mainshock slip

We study the stress transferred by the June 27, 1988, M = 5.3 and August 8, 1989, M = 5.4 Lake Elsman earthquakes, the largest events to strike within 15 km of the future Loma Prieta rupture zone during 74 years before the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. We find that the first Lake Elsman event brought the rupture plane of the second event 0.3–1.6 bars (0.03–0.16 MPa) closer to Coulomb failure but that the Lake Elsman events did not bring the future Loma Prieta hypocentral zone closer to failure. Instead, the Lake Elsman earthquakes are calculated to have reduced the normal stress on (or “undamped”) the Loma Prieta rupture surface by 0.5–1.0 bar (0.05–0.10 MPa) at the site where the greatest slip subsequently occurred in the Loma Prieta earthquake. This association between the sites of peak unclamping and slip suggests that the Lake Elsman events did indeed influence the Loma Prieta rupture process. Unclamping the fault would have locally lowered the resistance to sliding. Such an effect could have been enhanced if the lowered normal stress permitted fluid infusion into the undamped part of the fault. Although less well recorded, the M L = 5.0 1964 and M L = 5.3 1967 Corralitos events struck within 10 km of the southwest end of the future Loma Prieta rupture. No similar relationship between the normal stress change and subsequent Loma Prieta slip is observed, although the high-slip patch southwest of the Loma Prieta epicenter corresponds roughly to the site of calculated Coulomb stress increase for a low coefficient of friction. The Lake Elsman-Loma Prieta result is similar to that for the 1987 M = 6.2 Elmore Ranch and M = 6.7 Superstition Hills earthquakes, suggesting that foreshocks might influence the distribution of mainshock slip rather than the site of mainshock nucleation.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Three-dimensional velocity structure of Siletzia and other accreted terranes in the Cascadia forearc of Washington

Eocene mafic crust with high seismic velocities underlies much of the Oregon and Washington forearc and acts as a backstop for accretion of marine sedimentary rocks from the obliquely subducting Juan de Fuca slab. Arc-parallel migration of relatively strong blocks of this terrane, known as Siletzia, focuses upper crustal deformation along block boundaries, which are potential sources of earthquakes. In a three-dimensional velocity model of coastal Washington, we have combined surface geology, well data, and travel times from earthquakes and controlled source seismic experiments to resolve the major boundaries of the Siletz terrane with the adjacent accreted sedimentary prism and volcanic arc. In southern Washington and northern Oregon the Siletz terrane appears to be a thick block (???20 km) that extends west of the coastline and makes a high-angle contact with the offshore accreted sedimentary prism. On its east flank the high-velocity Siletz terrane boundary coincides with an en echelon zone of seismicity in the arc. In northern Washington the western edge of Siletzia makes a lower-angled, fault-bound contact with the accretionary prism. In addition, alternating, east-west trending uplifts and downwarps of the Siletz terrane centered on the antiformal Olympic Mountains may reflect focusing of north-south compression in the northern part of the Siletz terrane. This compressional strain may result from northward transport and clockwise rotation of the Siletz terrane into the relatively fixed Canadian Coast Mountains restraining bend along the coast.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS1999

Small scatterers in the lower mantle observed at German broadband arrays

Seismograms of earthquakes from the South Pacific recorded at a German broadband array and network show precursors to PKPdf . These precursors mainly originate from off-path scattering of PKPab or a nearby PKPbc to P (for receiver-side scattering) or from scattering of P to PKPab or PKPbc on the PKPdf path (for source-side scattering). Standard array processing techniques based on plane wave approximations (such as vespagram or frequency-wavenumber analysis) are inadequate for investigating these precursors since scattered waves cannot be approximated as plane waves for arrays and networks larger than 300 × 300 km for short-period waves. We therefore develop a migration method to estimate the location of scatterers in the mantle, at the core-mantle boundary and at the top of the outer core. With our method we are able to find isolated scatterers at the source side and the receiver side, although the depth of the scatterer is not well constrained. However, from looking at the first possible arrival time of precursors at different depth and the region where scattering can take place (scattering volume), we believe that the location of the scatterers is in the lowermost mantle. Since we have detected scatterers in regions where ultralow-velocity zones have been discovered recently, we think that the precursor energy possibly originates from scattering at partial melt at the base of the mantle. Comparing results from broadband and band-pass-filtered data the detection of small-scale structure of the ultralow-velocity zones becomes possible.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Nature and origin of upper crustal seismic velocity fluctuations and associated scaling properties: Combined stochastic analyses of KTB velocity and lithology logs

The main borehole of the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB) extends over 9000 m into a crystalline upper crust consisting primarily of interlayered gneiss and metabasite. We present a joint analysis of the velocity and lithology logs in an effort to extract the lithology component of the velocity log. Covariance analysis of lithology log, approximated as a binary series, indicates that it may originate from the superposition of two Brownian stochastic processes (fractal dimension 1.5) with characteristic scales of ∼2800 m and ∼150 m, respectively. Covariance analysis of the velocity fluctuations provides evidence for the superposition of four stochastic process with distinct characteristic scales. The largest two scales are identical to those derived from the lithology, confirming that these scales of velocity heterogeneity are caused by lithology variations. The third characteristic scale, ∼20 m, also a Brownian process, is probably related to fracturing based on correlation with the resistivity log. The superposition of these three Brownian processes closely mimics the commonly observed 1/ k decay (fractal dimension 2.0) of the velocity power spectrum. The smallest scale process (characteristic scale ∼1.7 m) requires a low fractal dimension, ∼1.0, and accounts for ∼60% of the total rms velocity variation. A comparison of successive logs from 6900–7140 m depth indicates that such variations are not repeatable and thus probably do not represent true velocity variations in the crust. The results of this study resolve disparity between the differing published estimates of seismic heterogeneity based on the KTB sonic logs, and bridge the gap between estimates of crustal heterogeneity from geologic maps and borehole logs.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Formation of natural gas hydrates in marine sediments 1. Conceptual model of gas hydrate growth conditioned by host sediment properties

The stability of submarine gas hydrates is largely dictated by pressure and temperature, gas composition, and pore water salinity. However, the physical properties and surface chemistry of deep marine sediments may also affect the thermodynamic state, growth kinetics, spatial distributions, and growth forms of clathrates. Our conceptual model presumes that gas hydrate behaves in a way analogous to ice in a freezing soil. Hydrate growth is inhibited within fine-grained sediments by a combination of reduced pore water activity in the vicinity of hydrophilic mineral surfaces, and the excess internal energy of small crystals confined in pores. The excess energy can be thought of as a "capillary pressure" in the hydrate crystal, related to the pore size distribution and the state of stress in the sediment framework. The base of gas hydrate stability in a sequence of fine sediments is predicted by our model to occur at a lower temperature (nearer to the seabed) than would be calculated from bulk thermodynamic equilibrium. Capillary effects or a build up of salt in the system can expand the phase boundary between hydrate and free gas into a divariant field extending over a finite depth range dictated by total methane content and pore-size distribution. Hysteresis between the temperatures of crystallization and dissociation of the clathrate is also predicted. Growth forms commonly observed in hydrate samples recovered from marine sediments (nodules, and lenses in muds; cements in sands) can largely be explained by capillary effects, but kinetics of nucleation and growth are also important. The formation of concentrated gas hydrates in a partially closed system with respect to material transport, or where gas can flush through the system, may lead to water depletion in the host sediment. This "freeze-drying" may be detectable through physical changes to the sediment (low water content and overconsolidation) and/or chemical anomalies in the pore waters and metastable presence of free gas within the normal zone of hydrate stability.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Air blasts generated by rockfall impacts: Analysis of the 1996 Happy Isles event in Yosemite National Park

The July 10, 1996, Happy Isles rockfall in Yosemite National Park, California, released 23,000 to 38,000 m 3 of granite in four separate events. The impacts of the first two events which involved a 550-m free fall, generated seismic waves and atmospheric pressure waves (air blasts). We focus on the dynamic behavior of the second air blast that downed over 1000 trees, destroyed a bridge, demolished a snack bar, and caused one fatality and several injuries. Calculated velocities for the air blast from a two-phase, finite difference model are compared to velocities estimated from tree damage. From tornadic studies of tree damage, the air blast is estimated to have traveled <108–120 m/s within 50 m from the impact and decreased to <10–20 m/s within 500 m from the impact. The numerical model simulates the two-dimensional propagation of an air blast through a dusty atmosphere with initial conditions defined by the impact velocity and pressure. The impact velocity (105–107 m/s) is estimated from the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program that simulates rockfall trajectories. The impact pressure (0.5 MPa) is constrained by the kinetic energy of the impact (10 10 –10 12 J) estimated from the seismic energy generated by the impact. Results from the air blast simulations indicate that the second Happy Isles air blast (weak shock wave) traveled with an initial velocity above the local sound speed. The size and location of the first impact are thought to have injected <50 wt% dust into the atmosphere. This amount of dust lowered the local atmospheric sound speed to ∼220 m/s. The discrepancy between calculated velocity data and field estimated velocity data (∼220 m/s versus ∼110 m/s) is attributed to energy dissipated by the downing of trees and additional entrainment of debris into the atmosphere not included in the calculations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Premonitory slip and tidal triggering of earthquakes

We have conducted a series of laboratory simulations of earthquakes using granite cylinders containing precut bare fault surfaces at 50 MPa confining pressure. Axial shortening rates between 10 −4 and 10 −6 mm/s were imposed to simulate tectonic loading. Average loading rate was then modulated by the addition of a small-amplitude sine wave to simulate periodic loading due to Earth tides or other sources. The period of the modulating signal ranged from 10 to 10,000 s. For each combination of amplitude and period of the modulating signal, multiple stick-slip events were recorded to determine the degree of correlation between the timing of simulated earthquakes and the imposed periodic loading function. Over the range of parameters studied, the degree of correlation of earthquakes was most sensitive to the amplitude of the periodic loading, with weaker dependence on the period of oscillations and the average loading rate. Accelerating premonitory slip was observed in these experiments and is a controlling factor in determining the conditions under which correlated events occur. In fact, some form of delayed failure is necessary to produce the observed correlations between simulated earthquake timing and characteristics of the periodic loading function. The transition from strongly correlated to weakly correlated model earthquake populations occurred when the amplitude of the periodic loading was approximately 0.05 to 0.1 MPa shear stress (0.03 to 0.06 MPa Coulomb failure function). Lower-amplitude oscillations produced progressively lower correlation levels. Correlations between static stress increases and earthquake aftershocks are found to degrade at similar stress levels. Typical stress variations due to Earth tides are only 0.001 to 0.004 MPa, so that the lack of correlation between Earth tides and earthquakes is also consistent with our findings. A simple extrapolation of our results suggests that approximately 1% of midcrustal earthquakes should be correlated with Earth tides. Triggered seismicity has been reported resulting from the passage of surface waves excited by the Landers earthquake. These transient waves had measured amplitudes in excess of 0.1 MPa at frequencies of 0.05 to 0.2 Hz in regions of notable seismicity increase. Similar stress oscillations in our laboratory experiments produced strongly correlated stick-slip events. We suggest that seemingly inconsistent natural observations of triggered seismicity and absence of tidal triggering indicate that failure is amplitude and frequency dependent. This is the expected result if, as in our laboratory experiments, the rheology of the Earth's crust permits delayed failure.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

Gravitational stability of three-dimensional stratovolcano edifices

Catastrophic flank collapses have occurred at many stratovolcanoes worldwide. We present a three-dimensional (3-D) slope stability analysis for assessing and quantifying both the locations of minimum edifice stability and the expected volumes of potential failure. Our approach can search the materials underlying a topographic surface, represented as a digital elevation model (DEM), and determine the relative stability of all parts of the edifice. Our 3-D extension of Bishop's [1955] simplified limit-equilibrium analysis incorporates spherical failure surfaces, variable material properties, pore fluid pressures, and earthquake shaking. Although a variety of processes can trigger collapse, we focus here on gravitationally induced instability. Even homogeneous rock properties strongly influence the depth and volume of the least stable potential failure. For large failures in complex topography, patterns of potential instability do not mimic local ground surface slope alone. The May 18, 1980, catastrophic failure of the north flank of Mount St. Helens provides the best documented case history to test our method. Using the undeformed edifice topography of Mount St. Helens in an analysis of dry, static slope stability with homogeneous materials, as might be conducted in a precollapse hazard analysis, our method identified the northwest flank as the least stable region, although the north flank stability was within 5% of the minimum. Using estimates of the conditions that existed 2 days prior to collapse, including deformed topography with a north flank bulge and combined pore pressure and earthquake shaking effects, we obtained good estimates of the actual failure location and volume. Our method can provide estimates of initial failure volume and location to aid in assessing downslope or downstream hazards.

Washington↗

USGS2000

The crustal thickness of Australia

We investigate the crustal structure of the Australian continent using the temporary broadband stations of the Skippy and Kimba projects and permanent broadband stations. We isolate near-receiver information, in the form of crustal P-to-S conversions, using the receiver function technique. Stacked receiver functions are inverted for S velocity structure using a Genetic Algorithm approach to Receiver Function Inversion (GARFI). From the resulting velocity models we are able to determine the Moho depth and to classify the width of the crust-mantle transition for 65 broadband stations. Using these results and 51 independent estimates of crustal thickness from refraction and reflection profiles, we present a new, improved, map of Moho depth for the Australian continent. The thinnest crust (25 km) occurs in the Archean Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia; the thickest crust (61 km) occurs in Proterozoic central Australia. The average crustal thickness is 38.8 km (standard deviation 6.2 km). Interpolation error estimates are made using kriging and fall into the range 2.5–7.0 km. We find generally good agreement between the depth to the seismologically defined Moho and xenolith-derived estimates of crustal thickness beneath northeastern Australia. However, beneath the Lachlan Fold Belt the estimates are not in agreement, and it is possible that the two techniques are mapping differing parts of a broad Moho transition zone. The Archean cratons of Western Australia appear to have remained largely stable since cratonization, reflected in only slight variation of Moho depth. The largely Proterozoic center of Australia shows relatively thicker crust overall as well as major Moho offsets. We see evidence of the margin of the contact between the Precambrian craton and the Tasman Orogen, referred to as the Tasman Line.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

Style and age of late Oligocene-early Miocene deformation in the southern Stillwater Range, west central Nevada: Paleomagnetism, geochronology, and field relations

Paleomagnetic and geochronologic data combined with geologic mapping tightly restrict the timing and character of a late Oligocene to early Miocene episode of large magnitude extension in the southern Stillwater Range and adjacent regions of west central Nevada. The southern Stillwater Range was the site of an Oligocene to early Miocene volcanic center comprising (1) 28.3 to 24.3 Ma intracaldera ash flow tuffs, lava flows, and subjacent plutons associated with three calderas, (2) 24.8 to 20.7 Ma postcaldera silicic dikes and domes, and (3) unconformably overlying 15.3 to 13.0 Ma dacite to basalt lava flows, plugs, and dikes. The caldera-related tuffs, lava flows, and plutons were tilted 60°-70° either west or east during the initial period of Cenozoic deformation that accommodated over 100% extension. Directions of remanent magnetization obtained from these extrusive and intrusive, caldera-related rocks are strongly deflected from an expected Miocene direction in senses appropriate for their tilt. A mean direction for these rocks after tilt correction, however, suggests that they were also affected by a moderate (33.4° ± 11.8°) component of counterclockwise vertical axis rotation. Paleomagnetic data indicate that the episode of large tilting occurred during emplacement of 24.8 to 20.7 Ma postcaldera dikes and domes. In detail, an apparent decrease in rotation with decreasing age of individual, isotopically dated bodies of the postcaldera group indicates that most tilting occurred between 24.4 and 24.2 Ma. The onset of tilting immediately following after the final caldera eruptions suggests that the magmatism and deformation were linked. Deformation was not driven by magma buoyancy, however, because tilting equally affected the caldera systems of different ages, including their plutonic roots. It is more likely that regional extension was focused in the southern Stillwater Range due to magmatic warming and reduction of tensile strength of the brittle crust. Faults that accommodated deformation in the southern Stillwater Range initially dipped steeply and cut deeply to expose more than 9 km of crustal section. The exposed crustal sections are probably rotated blocks above an unexposed basal detachment that lay near the early Miocene brittle-ductile transition.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

A crustal model of the ultrahigh-pressure Dabie Shan orogenic belt, China, derived from deep seismic refraction profiling

We present a new crustal cross section through the east-west trending ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) Dabie Shan orogenic belt, east central China, based on a 400-km-long seismic refraction profile. Data from our profile reveal that the cratonal blocks north and south of the orogen are composed of 35-km-thick crust consisting of three layers (upper, middle, and lower crust) with average seismic velocities of 6.0±0.2 km/s, 6.5±0.1 km/s, and 6.8±0.1 km/s. The crust reaches a maximum thickness of 41.5 km beneath the northern margin of the orogen, and thus the present-day root beneath the orogen is only 6.5 km thick. The upper mantle velocity is 8.0±0.1 km/s. Modeling of shear wave data indicate that Poisson's ratio increases from 0.24±0.02 in the upper crust to 0.27±0.03 in the lower crust. This result is consistent with a dominantly felsic upper crustal composition and a mafic lower crustal composition within the amphibolite or granulite metamorphic facies. Our seismic model indicates that eclogite, which is abundant in surface exposures within the orogen, is not a volumetrically significant component in the middle or lower crust. Much of the Triassic structure associated with the formation of the UHP rocks of the Dabie Shan has been obscured by post-Triassic igneous activity, extension and large-offset strike-slip faulting. Nevertheless, we can identify a high-velocity (6.3 km/s) zone in the upper (<5 km depth) crustal core of the orogen which we interpret as a zone of ultrahigh-pressure rocks, a north dipping suture, and an apparent Moho offset that marks a likely active strike-slip fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

Alternating seismic uplift and subsidence in the late Holocene at Madang, Papua New Guinea: Evidence from raised reefs

Well-preserved mid-late Holocene coral reefs are exposed in low coastal cliffs in the vicinity of the Madang lagoon on the north coast of Papua New Guinea. Results from U/Th and 14 C dating of corals, surveying, and field mapping indicate several major changes in relative sea level over this period. Specifically, there is evidence for a relative sea level fall of ≥4.5 m about 3000 calendar years B.P., followed by relative sea level rises of ∼1.5 m about 2400 calendar years B.P. and ≥0.5 m about 1200 calendar years B.P. and a subsequent relative sea level fall of ≥3 m some time in the past 1000 years. Since regional eustatic sea levels are believed to have been dropping gradually over this time frame, these observed changes in relative sea level are interpreted as reflecting alternating tectonic uplift and subsidence. Furthermore, the detailed structure and age relationships of the coral deposits indicate that both uplift and subsidence occurred rapidly, most probably as coseismic events with vertical displacements of 0.5 to 4.5 m. These events may be related to rupture on NW-SE trending reverse faults which have been mapped in the nearby Adelbert Range and possibly on NE trending cross faults which have been inferred from seismicity. This interpretation implies a much greater degree of tectonic instability and potential seismic hazard in the region than previously recognized, although the inferred coseismic vertical displacements are shown to be consistent with present-day local seismicity. In a broader context, the study illustrates how detailed analysis of vertical changes in coral reef structure and assemblages may be used as a sensitive indicator of changing relative sea level, capable of resolving century timescale events and reversals.

Madang↗

USGS2000

Crustal deformation associated with glacial fluctuations in the eastern Chugach Mountains, Alaska

The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993–1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 km 3 from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M L ≥ 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M L ≤ 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, σ 3 , could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1–6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1–12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5×10 19 Pa s for depths between ≈ 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in σv between 0 and 10 km was ≈ 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (≈ 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M S = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t 0 . The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r 0 , testable using earthquake catalogs, where r 0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r 0 , consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t 0 . These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r 0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified Coulomb failure model in which the failure stress threshold is lowered due to weakening, increasing the clock advance. The deviation from a non-Coulomb response also depends on the loading rate, elastic stiffness, initial conditions, and assumptions about how state evolves.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

Estimation of wave phase speed and nearshore bathymetry from video imagery

A new remote sensing technique based on video image processing has been developed for the estimation of nearshore bathymetry. The shoreward propagation of waves is measured using pixel intensity time series collected at a cross-shore array of locations using remotely operated video cameras. The incident band is identified, and the cross-spectral matrix is calculated for this band. The cross-shore component of wavenumber is found as the gradient in phase of the first complex empirical orthogonal function of this matrix. Water depth is then inferred from linear wave theory's dispersion relationship. Full bathymetry maps may be measured by collecting data in a large array composed of both cross-shore and longshore lines. Data are collected hourly throughout the day, and a stable, daily estimate of bathymetry is calculated from the median of the hourly estimates. The technique was tested using 30 days of hourly data collected at the SandyDuck experiment in Duck, North Carolina, in October 1997. Errors calculated as the difference between estimated depth and ground truth data show a mean bias of −35 cm (rms error = 91 cm). Expressed as a fraction of the true water depth, the mean percent error was 13% (rms error = 34%). Excluding the region of known wave nonlinearities over the bar crest, the accuracy of the technique improved, and the mean (rms) error was −20 cm (75 cm). Additionally, under low-amplitude swells (wave height H ≤ 1 m), the performance of the technique across the entire profile improved to 6% (29%) of the true water depth with a mean (rms) error of −12 cm (71 cm).

North Carolina↗

USGS2001

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over &sim;80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [ Kalnay et al. , 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [ Woodruff et al. , 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m −2 above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m −2 . Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m −2 , with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2000

Time-averaged fluxes of lead and fallout radionuclides to sediments in Florida Bay

Recent, unmixed sediments from mud banks of central Florida Bay were dated using 210 Pb/ 226 Ra, and chronologies were verified by comparing sediment lead temporal records with Pb/Ca ratios in annual layers of coral ( Montastrea annularis ) located on the ocean side of the Florida Keys. Dates of sediment lead peaks (1978±2) accord with prior observations of a 6 year lag between the occurrence of maximum atmospheric lead in 1972 and peak coral lead in 1978. Smaller lags of 1–2 years occur between the maximum atmospheric radionuclide fallout and peaks in sediment temporal records of 137 Cs and Pu. Such lags are consequences of system time averaging (STA) in which atmospherically delivered particle-associated constituents accumulate and mix in a (sedimentary?) reservoir before transferring to permanent sediments and coral. STA model calculations, using time-dependent atmospheric inputs, produced optimized profiles in excellent accord with measured sediment 137 Cs, Pu, lead, and coral lead distributions. Derived residence times of these particle tracers (16±1, 15.7±0.7, 19±3, and 16±2 years, respectively) are comparable despite differences in sampling locations, in accumulating media, and in element loading histories and geochemical properties. For a 16 year weighted mean residence time, STA generates the observed 6 year lead peak lag. Evidently, significant levels of nondegradable, particle-associated contaminants can persist in Florida Bay for many decades following elimination of external inputs. Present results, in combination with STA model analysis of previously reported radionuclide profiles, suggest that decade-scale time averaging may occur widely in recent coastal marine sedimentary environments.

Florida↗

USGS1999

Spatially averaged flow over a wavy boundary revisited

Vertical profiles of streamwise velocity measured over bed forms are commonly used to deduce boundary shear stress for the purpose of estimating sediment transport. These profiles may be derived locally or from some sort of spatial average. Arguments for using the latter procedure are based on the assumption that spatial averaging of the momentum equation effectively removes local accelerations from the problem. Using analogies based on steady, uniform flows, it has been argued that the spatially averaged velocity profiles are approximately logarithmic and can be used to infer values of boundary shear stress. This technique of using logarithmic profiles is investigated using detailed laboratory measurements of flow structure and boundary shear stress over fixed two-dimensional bed forms. Spatial averages over the length of the bed form of mean velocity measurements at constant distances from the mean bed elevation yield vertical profiles that are highly logarithmic even though the effect of the bottom topography is observed throughout the water column. However, logarithmic fits of these averaged profiles do not yield accurate estimates of the measured total boundary shear stress.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗