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Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

Fact Sheet↗

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r 2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r 2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

Differential response of carbon fluxes to climate in three peatland ecosystems that vary in the presence and stability of permafrost

Changes in vegetation and soil properties following permafrost degradation and thermokarst development in peatlands may cause changes in net carbon storage. To better understand these dynamics, we established three sites in Alaska that vary in permafrost regime, including a black spruce peat plateau forest with stable permafrost, an internal collapse scar bog formed as a result of thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements include year-round eddy covariance estimates of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water, and energy fluxes, associated environmental variables, and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes at the collapse scar bog. The ecosystems all acted as net sinks of CO 2 in 2011 and 2012, when air temperature and precipitation remained near long-term means. In 2013, under a late snowmelt and late leaf out followed by a hot, dry summer, the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog were sources of CO 2 . In this same year, CO 2 uptake in the fen increased, largely because summer inundation from groundwater inputs suppressed ecosystem respiration. CO 2 exchange in the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog was sensitive to warm air temperatures, with 0.5 g C m −2 lost each day when maximum air temperature was very warm (≥29°C). The bog lost 4981 ± 300 mg CH 4 m −2 between April and September 2013, indicating that this ecosystem acted as a significant source of both CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere in 2013. These results suggest that boreal peatland responses to warming and drying, both of which are expected to occur in a changing climate, will depend on permafrost regime.

Alaska↗

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Alaska↗

Hydrologic response of groundwater and streamflow to natural and anthropogenic drivers of change in headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) conditions

Study region: Headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin (UCOL), USA Study focus: Surface-water and groundwater numerical models incorporating water-use information were used to investigate changes in climate, water use, and simulated hydrologic responses of snow processes, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and streamflow during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) periods in the headwater subregions of the upper Colorado River basin. New hydrologic insights for the region: Decreases in average streamflow between wet and drought periods ranged from 20 % in the Colorado River headwaters subregion to 23 % in the Gunnison River headwaters subregion. Like streamflow, average surface runoff was statistically less during the drought than the wet period, with decreases from 24–31 % in the headwaters. On a volume basis, runoff decreases were greater than streamflow decreases in both the Colorado River and Gunnison River headwaters. Although the amount of water-year groundwater discharge to streams remained nearly the same between the wet and drought periods, groundwater as a percentage of streamflow increased between the wet and drought periods, highlighting the importance of groundwater in sustaining streamflow during drought conditions. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that snowmelt-only models were better than the best precipitation and temperature models at explaining streamflow variability from all headwater subregions for both the wet and drought periods.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Connecticut;Labrador;Maine;Massachusetts;New Bruns↗

Inorganic carbon loading as a primary driver of dissolved carbon dioxide concentrations in the lakes and reservoirs of the contiguous United States

Accurate quantification of CO 2 flux across the air-water interface and identification of the mechanisms driving CO 2 concentrations in lakes and reservoirs is critical to integrating aquatic systems into large-scale carbon budgets, and to predicting the response of these systems to changes in climate or terrestrial carbon cycling. Large-scale estimates of the role of lakes and reservoirs in the carbon cycle, however, typically must rely on aggregation of spatially and temporally inconsistent data from disparate sources. We performed a spatially comprehensive analysis of CO 2 concentration and air-water fluxes in lakes and reservoirs of the contiguous United States using large, consistent data sets, and modeled the relative contribution of inorganic and organic carbon loading to vertical CO 2 fluxes. Approximately 70% of lakes and reservoirs are supersaturated with respect to the atmosphere during the summer (June–September). Although there is considerable interregional and intraregional variability, lakes and reservoirs represent a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere of approximately 40 Gg C d –1 during the summer. While in-lake CO 2 concentrations correlate with indicators of in-lake net ecosystem productivity, virtually no relationship exists between dissolved organic carbon and p CO 2,aq . Modeling suggests that hydrologic dissolved inorganic carbon supports p CO 2,aq in most supersaturated systems (to the extent that 12% of supersaturated systems simultaneously exhibit positive net ecosystem productivity), and also supports primary production in most CO 2 -undersaturated systems. Dissolved inorganic carbon loading appears to be an important determinant of CO 2 concentrations and fluxes across the air-water interface in the majority of lakes and reservoirs in the contiguous United States.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

Pacific sea surface temperature linkages with Tanzania’s multi-season drying trends

Droughts in Tanzania pose challenges to agriculture, water resources, and hydropower production, all of which impact livelihoods. Tanzania experienced below average precipitation during 1999-2014 during two important seasons: December to February (DJF) in the south and during March to June (MAMJ) in the northeast. We explore DJF and MAMJ precipitation in the areas with drying trends and examine their relationships with anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indo-Pacific and corresponding circulation patterns. It is found that at seasonal time scales, precipitation in DJF and MAMJ trend areas appears inversely related to diabatic forcing in the equatorial Pacific. The dominant influence for droughts in DJF is from eastern Pacific SST while for droughts in MAMJ it is from West Pacific SST. A bivariate regression model with West Pacific and Niño3.4 region SST as predictors is found to recreate multidecadal DJF variability after the 1950s and the extreme drying in MAMJ during the 2000s. The regression model coefficients also indicate differential eastern vs. western Pacific forcing for DJF vs. MAMJ. Thus we suggest that recent La Niña-like conditions, characterized by an enhanced Pacific SST gradient due to cooling in the eastern Pacific and warming in the western Pacific, played a substantial role in Tanzania’s recent multi-season drying trends. SST change scenarios (difference between 2023-2037 and 2000-2014 means) based on CMIP5 projections and observed trends illustrate the uncertainty about future precipitation outcomes and also the potential implications of contrasting linkages to eastern vs. western Pacific SSTs. These scenarios are mainly optimistic for the DJF southern Tanzania trend area, because it appears dominated by Niño3.4 cooling at both seasonal and decadal time scales. Conversely, our scenarios are quite pessimistic for the MAMJ northeastern Tanzania trend area, because we find a dominant negative influence of warming West Pacific SST.

International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts a↗

Understanding the links between functional performance and environment in cold desert ecosystems through the flagship biocrust forming moss Syntrichia caninervis

Background and aims Biocrust communities shape the soil surface in drylands, regulating important ecosystem properties. Despite this, few works address key functional attributes in these poikilohydric photosynthetic communities, including the length of metabolic activity in the field and its relationship with microclimate. We aim to disentangle the links between functional performance of a keystone biocrust species and environment in drylands, in order to better understand ecosystem functioning and services provided to the soil by these organisms. Methods We developed a 23 months monitoring experiment using very high resolution measurements of chlorophyll a fluorescence and microclimate in the field, comparing habitats with soils of different particle size composition and microclimatic conditions for the flagship biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis on the Colorado Plateau, Utah, USA. Results While growing in soils of different composition did not impair the functional performance of the species, the sun/shade plasticity did affect key physiological attributes. Our results quantified a strategy based on avoidance of the most extreme environmental conditions, where metabolic activity only occur during 19.9% of the total time monitored. Relative humidity was the best microclimatic predictor of metabolic activity, and the annual length of metabolically active periods showed strong convergences with other drylands of the world. Conclusions These results collectively suggest a strong control of the environment over the ecosystem services provided by biocrusts. Our results include evidence for an improved understanding of the plasticity of S. caninervis to its variety of habitats, and its response to potential threats under different climate change scenarios.

Utah↗

Sandstone-hosted uranium deposits of the Colorado Plateau, USA

More than 4,000 sandstone-hosted uranium occurrences host over 1.2 billion pounds of mined and in situ U 3 O 8 throughout the Colorado Plateau. Most of the resources are in two distinct mineral systems with deposits hosted in the Triassic Chinle and Jurassic Morrison Formations. In the Chinle mineral system, base metal sulfides typically accompany mineralization. The Morrison mineral system is characterized by V/U ratios up to 20. The uranium source was likely volcanic ash preserved as bentonitic mudstones in the Brushy Basin Member of the Morrison Formation, and lithic volcanic clasts, ash shards, and bentonitic clay in the lower part of the Chinle Formation. Vanadium originated from two possible sources: iron–titanium oxides that are extensively altered in bleached rock near deposits or from similar minerals in variably bleached red beds interbedded with and beneath the Morrison. In Chinle-hosted deposits, in addition to volcanic ash, a contributing source of both vanadium and uranium is proposed here for the first time to be underlying red beds in the Moenkopi and Cutler Formations that have undergone a cycle of reddening-bleaching-reoxidation. Transport in both systems was likely in groundwater through the more permeable sandstones and conglomerate units. The association of uranium minerals with carbonate and more rarely apatite, suggests that transport of uranium was as a carbonate or phosphate complex. The first comprehensive examination of paleoclimate, paleotopography, and subsurface structure of aquifers coupled with analysis of the geochronology of deposits suggests that that there were distinct pulses of uranium mineralization/redistribution during the period from about 259 Ma to 12 Ma when oxidized mineralizing fluids were intermittently rejuvenated in the Plateau in response to changes in tectonic regime and climate. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that deposits formed at ambient temperatures of about 25 °C to no greater than about 140 °C. In both systems, deposits formed where groundwater flow slowed and was subject to evaporative concentration. Stagnant conditions allowed for prolonged interaction of U- and V-enriched groundwater with ferrous iron-bearing reductants, such as illite and iron–titanium oxides, and more rarely organic material such as plant debris. Paragenetically late in the sequence, reducing fluids introduced additional organic matter to some deposits. Reducing fluids and introduced organic matter (now amorphous and altered by radiolysis) may originate from regional petroleum systems where peak oil and gas generation was from ∼ 82 to ∼ 5 Ma. Our novel analysis indicates that these reducing fluids bleached rock and protected affected deposits from remobilization during exposure and weathering that followed uplift of the Plateau (∼80 to 40 Ma).

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗

Tracking millennial-scale Holocene glacial advance and retreat using osmium isotopes: Insights from the Greenland ice sheet

High-resolution Os isotope stratigraphy can aid in reconstructing Pleistocene ice sheet fluctuation and elucidating the role of local and regional weathering fluxes on the marine Os residence time. This paper presents new Os isotope data from ocean cores adjacent to the West Greenland ice sheet that have excellent chronological controls. Cores MSM-520 and DA00-06 represent distal to proximal sites adjacent to two West Greenland ice streams. Core MSM-520 has a steadily decreasing Os signal over the last 10 kyr ( 187 Os/ 188 Os = 1.35–0.81). In contrast, Os isotopes from core DA00-06 (proximal to the calving front of Jakobshavn Isbræ) highlight four stages of ice stream retreat and advance over the past 10 kyr ( 187 Os/ 188 Os = 2.31; 1.68; 2.09; 1.47). Our high-resolution chemostratigraphic records provide vital benchmarks for ice-sheet modelers as we attempt to better constrain the future response of major ice sheets to climate change. Variations in Os isotope composition from sediment and macro-algae (seaweed) sourced from regional and global settings serve to emphasize the overwhelming effect weathering sources have on seawater Os isotope composition. Further, these findings demonstrate that the residence time of Os is shorter than previous estimates of ∼10 4 yr.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Idaho, Montana, Washington↗

Heterogeneity in migration strategies of the whooping crane

Migratory birds use numerous strategies to successfully complete twice-annual movements between breeding and wintering sites. Context for conservation and management can be provided by characterizing these strategies. Variations in strategy among and within individuals support population persistence in response to changes in land use and climate. We used location data from 58 marked Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) from 2010–2016 to characterize migration strategies in the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and southern boreal region, and to explore sources of heterogeneity in their migration strategy, including space use, timing, and performance. Whooping Cranes completed approximately 3,900-km migrations that averaged 29 days during spring and 45 days during autumn, while making 11–12 nighttime stops. At the scale of our analysis, individual Whooping Cranes showed little consistency in stopover sites used among migration seasons (i.e., low site fidelity). In contrast, individuals expressed a measure of consistency in timing, especially migration initiation date. Whooping Cranes migrated at different times based on age and reproductive status, where adults with young initiated autumn migration after other birds, and adults with and without young initiated spring migration before subadult birds. Time spent at stopover sites was associated with migration bout length and time spent at previous stopover sites, suggesting Whooping Cranes acquired energy resources at some stopover sites that they used to fuel migration. Whooping Cranes were faithful to a defined migration corridor but showed less fidelity in their selection of nighttime stopover sites; hence, spatial targeting of conservation actions may be better informed by associations with landscape and habitat features rather than documented past use at specific locations. The preservation of variation in migration strategies existing within this species that experienced a severe population bottleneck suggests that Whooping Cranes have maintained a capacity to adjust strategies when confronted with future changes in land use and climate.

Great Plains, Canadian Prairies↗

From Caprio's lilacs to the USA National Phenology Network

Continental-scale monitoring is vital for understanding and adapting to temporal changes in seasonal climate and associated phenological responses. The success of monitoring programs will depend on recruiting, retaining, and managing members of the public to routinely collect phenological observations according to standardized protocols. Here, we trace the development of infrastructure for phenological monitoring in the US, culminating in the USA National Phenology Network, a program that engages scientists and volunteers.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

U.S. Geological Survey activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal years 2007 and 2008

In the late 1800s, John Wesley Powell, the second director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), followed his interest in the tribes of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and studied their cultures, languages, and surroundings. From that early time, the USGS has recognized the importance of Native knowledge and living in harmony with nature as complements to the USGS mission to better understand the Earth. Combining traditional ecological knowledge with empirical studies allows the USGS and Native American governments, organizations, and people to increase their mutual understanding and respect for this land. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and is not responsible for regulations or land management. Climate change is a major current issue affecting Native lives and traditions throughout the United States. Climate projections for the coming century indicate an increasing probability for more frequent and more severe droughts in the Southwest, including the Navajo Nation. Erosion has claimed Native homes in Alaska. Fish have become inedible due to diseases that turn their flesh mushy. Native people who rely on or who are culturally sustained by hunting, fishing, and using local plants are living with climate change now. The traditional knowledge of Native peoples enriches and confirms the work of USGS scientists. The results are truly synergistic-greater than the sum of their parts. Traditional ecological knowledge is respected and increasingly used in USGS studies-when the holders of that knowledge choose to share it. The USGS respects the rights of Native people to maintain their patrimony of traditional ecological knowledge. The USGS studies can help Tribes, Native organizations, and natural resource professionals manage Native lands and resources with the best available unbiased data and information that can be added to their traditional knowledge. Wise Native leaders have noted that traditional ecological knowledge includes the connections between Earth and her denizens. From this perspective, it is the connections among these ?relatives? that needs to be nurtured. This perspective on nature is finding new adherents among Natives and non-Natives as understanding of climate change and other environmental conditions deepens. Although this report uses the term ?resources,? the USGS, through its interdisciplinary research, acknowledges the interconnectedness of the Earth and the things that live upon it.

Circular↗

Geomorphic map of Worcester County, Maryland, interpreted from a LIDAR-based, digital elevation model

A recently compiled mosaic of a LIDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) is presented with geomorphic analysis of new macro-topographic details. The geologic framework of the surficial and near surface late Cenozoic deposits of the central uplands, Pocomoke River valley, and the Atlantic Coast includes Cenozoic to recent sediments from fluvial, estuarine, and littoral depositional environments. Extensive Pleistocene (cold climate) sandy dune fields are deposited over much of the terraced landscape. The macro details from the LIDAR image reveal 2 meter-scale resolution of details of the shapes of individual dunes, and fields of translocated sand sheets. Most terrace surfaces are overprinted with circular to elliptical rimmed basins that represent complex histories of ephemeral ponds that were formed, drained, and overprinted by younger basins. The terrains of composite ephemeral ponds and the dune fields are inter-shingled at their margins indicating contemporaneous erosion, deposition, and re-arrangement and possible internal deformation of the surficial deposits. The aggregate of these landform details and their deposits are interpreted as the products of arid, cold climate processes that were common to the mid-Atlantic region during the Last Glacial Maximum. In the Pocomoke valley and its larger tributaries, erosional remnants of sandy flood plains with anastomosing channels indicate the dynamics of former hydrology and sediment load of the watershed that prevailed at the end of the Pleistocene. As the climate warmed and precipitation increased during the transition from late Pleistocene to Holocene, dune fields were stabilized by vegetation, and the stream discharge increased. The increased discharge and greater local relief of streams graded to lower sea levels stimulated down cutting and created the deeply incised valleys out onto the continental shelf. These incised valleys have been filling with fluvial to intertidal deposits that record the rising sea level and warmer, more humid climate in the mid-Atlantic region throughout the Holocene. Thus, the geomorphic details provided by the new LIDAR DEM actually record the response of the landscape to abrupt climate change. Holocene trends and land-use patterns from Colonial to modern times can also be interpreted from the local macro- scale details of the landscape. Beyond the obvious utility of these data for land-use planning and assessments of resources and hazards, the new map presents new details on the impact of climate changes on a mid-latitude, outer Coastal plain landscape.

Maryland↗

Surface-water radon-222 distribution along the west-central Florida shelf

In February 2009 and August 2009, the spatial distribution of radon-222 in surface water was mapped along the west-central Florida shelf as collaboration between the Response of Florida Shelf Ecosystems to Climate Change project and a U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Research Fellowship project. This report summarizes the surface distribution of radon-222 from two cruises and evaluates potential physical controls on radon-222 fluxes. Radon-222 is an inert gas produced overwhelmingly in sediment and has a short half-life of 3.8 days; activities in surface water ranged between 30 and 170 becquerels per cubic meter. Overall, radon-222 activities were enriched in nearshore surface waters relative to offshore waters. Dilution in offshore waters is expected to be the cause of the low offshore activities. While thermal stratification of the water column during the August survey may explain higher radon-222 activities relative to the February survey, radon-222 activity and integrated surface-water inventories decreased exponentially from the shoreline during both cruises. By estimating radon-222 evasion by wind from nearby buoy data and accounting for internal production from dissolved radium-226, its radiogenic long-lived parent, a simple one-dimensional model was implemented to determine the role that offshore mixing, benthic influx, and decay have on the distribution of excess radon-222 inventories along the west Florida shelf. For multiple statistically based boundary condition scenarios (first quartile, median, third quartile, and maximum radon-222 inshore of 5 kilometers), the cross-shelf mixing rates and average nearshore submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) rates varied from 100.38 to 10-3.4 square kilometers per day and 0.00 to 1.70 centimeters per day, respectively. This dataset and modeling provide the first attempt to assess cross-shelf mixing and SGD on such a large spatial scale. Such estimates help scale up SGD rates that are often made at 1- to 10-meter resolution to a coarser but more regionally applicable scale of 1- to 10-kilometer resolution. More stringent analyses and model evaluation are required, but results and analyses presented in this report provide the foundation for conducting a more rigorous statistical assessment.

Florida↗