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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Waterfowl show spatiotemporal trends in influenza A H5 and H7 infections but limited taxonomic variation

Influenza A viruses in wild birds pose threats to the poultry industry, wild birds, and human health under certain conditions. Of particular importance are wild waterfowl, which are the primary reservoir of low pathogenicity influenza viruses that ultimately cause high pathogenicity outbreaks in poultry farms. Despite much work on the drivers of influenza A virus prevalence, the underlying viral subtype dynamics are still mostly unexplored. Nevertheless, understanding these dynamics, particularly for the agriculturally significant H5 and H7 subtypes, is important for mitigating the risk of outbreaks in domestic poultry farms. Here, using an expansive surveillance database, we take a large-scale look at the spatial, temporal, and taxonomic drivers in the prevalence of these two subtypes among influenza A positive wild waterfowl. We document spatiotemporal trends that are consistent with past work, particularly an uptick in H5 viruses in late autumn and H7 viruses in spring. Interestingly, despite large species differences in temporal trends in overall influenza A virus prevalence, we document only modest differences in the relative abundance of these two subtypes and little, if any, temporal differences among species. As such, it appears that differences in species' phenology, physiology, and behaviors that influence overall susceptibility to influenza A viruses play a much lesser role in relative susceptibility to different subtypes. Instead, species likely freely pass viruses among each other regardless of subtype. Importantly, despite the similarities among species documented here, individual species still may play important roles in moving viruses across large geographic areas or sustaining local outbreaks through their different migratory behaviors.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Multi-decadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding

Wildfires and climate change are having transformative effects on vegetation composition and structure, and post-fire management may have long-lasting impacts on ecosystem reorganization. Post-fire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time, particularly in type-converted forests which have been dramatically transformed by the effects of repeated, high-severity fire. In this study, we analyze and report on a rare long-term (23-year) dataset that documents vegetation dynamics following a 1996 post-fire aerial seed treatment and subsequent 2011 high-severity reburn in a dry conifer forest of northern New Mexico in the southwestern United States. Repeated surveys between 1997 – 2019 of 49 permanent transects were used to test for differences in vegetation cover, richness, and diversity between seeded and unseeded areas, and to characterize the development of seeded and unseeded vegetation communities through time and across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and soil-available water capacity. Post-fire seeding led to a clear and sustained divergence in herbaceous community composition. Seeded plots had much higher cover of non-native graminoids, primarily Bromus inermis , a likely contaminant in the seed mix. High-severity reburning in all plots in 2011 reduced native graminoid cover by half at seeded plots compared to both pre-fire levels and to plots that were unseeded following the initial 1996 fire. In addition, increased fire severity was associated with increased non-native graminoid cover and reduced native graminoid cover, native species richness, and species diversity. This study documents a fire-driven ecosystem transformation from a former conifer forest into a shrub-grass system, reinforced by aerial seeding of grasses and high-severity reburning. This unique long-term dataset illustrates that post-fire seeding carries significant risk of unwanted non-native species invasions that persist through subsequent fires – indicating that alternative post-fire management actions merit consideration to better support native ecosystem resilience in the face of emergent climate change and increasing disturbance. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of post-fire vegetation dynamics, as short-term assessments will miss key elements of the full complexity of ecosystem responses to fire and post-fire management actions.

New Mexico↗
USGS2024

Food-web dynamics of a floodplain mosaic overshadow the effects of engineered logjams for Pacific salmon and steelhead

Food webs vary in space and time. The structure and spatial arrangement of food webs are theorized to mediate temporal dynamics of energy flow, but empirical corroboration in intermediate-scale landscapes is scarce. River-floodplain landscapes encompass a mosaic of aquatic habitat patches and food webs, supporting a variety of aquatic consumers of conservation concern. How the structure and productivity of these patch-scale food webs change through time, and how floodplain restoration influences their dynamics, are unevaluated. We measured productivity and food-web dynamics across a mosaic of main-channel and side-channel habitats of the Methow River, WA, USA, during two study years (2009–2010; 2015–2016) and examined how food webs that sustained juvenile anadromous salmonids responded to habitat manipulation. By quantifying temporal variation in secondary production and organic matter flow across nontreated river-floodplain habitats and comparing that variation to a side channel treated with engineered logjams, we jointly confronted spatial food-web theory and assessed whether food-web dynamics in the treated side channel exceeded natural variation exhibited in nontreated habitats. We observed that organic matter flow through the more complex, main-channel food web was similar between study years, whereas organic matter flow through the simpler, side-channel food webs changed up to ~4-fold. In the side channel treated with engineered logjams, production of benthic invertebrates and juvenile salmonids increased between study years by 2× and 4×, respectively; however, these changes did not surpass the temporal variation observed in untreated habitats. For instance, juvenile salmonid production rose 17-fold in one untreated side-channel habitat, and natural aggregation of large wood in another coincided with a shift to community and food-web dominance by juvenile salmonids. Our findings suggest that interannual dynamism in material flux across floodplain habitat mosaics is interrelated with patchiness in food-web complexity and may overshadow the ecological responses to localized river restoration. Although this dynamism may inhibit detection of the ecological effects of river restoration, it may also act to stabilize aquatic ecosystems and buffer salmon and other species of conservation concern in the long term. As such, natural, landscape-level patchiness and dynamism in food webs should be integrated into conceptual foundations of process-based, river restoration.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Four conservation challenges and a synthesis

Conservation and management of biological systems involves decision-making over time, with a generic goal of sustaining systems and their capacity to function in the future. We address four persistent and difficult conservation challenges: (1) prediction of future consequences of management, (2) uncertainty about the system's structure, (3) inability to observe ecological systems fully, and (4) nonstationary system dynamics. We describe these challenges in terms of dynamic systems subject to different sources of uncertainty, and we present a basic Markovian framework that can encompass approaches to all four challenges. Finding optimal conservation strategies for each challenge requires issue-specific structural features, including adaptations of state transition models, uncertainty metrics, valuation of accumulated returns, and solution methods. Strategy valuation exhibits not only some remarkable similarities among approaches but also some important operational differences. Technical linkages among the models highlight synergies in solution approaches, as well as possibilities for combining them in particular conservation problems. As methodology and computing software advance, such an integrated conservation framework offers the potential to improve conservation outcomes with strategies to allocate management resources efficiently and avoid negative consequences.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Factors influencing autumn–winter movements of midcontinent Mallards and consequences for harvest and habitat management

Annual phenology and distributions of migratory wildlife have been noticeably influenced by climate change, leading to concerns about sustainable populations. Recent studies exploring conditions influencing autumn migration departure have provided conflicting insights regarding factors influencing the movements of Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), a popular game species. We determined factors affecting timing and magnitude of long-distance movements of 97 juvenile Mallards during autumn-winter across the midcontinent of North America marked with implanted transmitters in North and South Dakota, 2018–2019. Factors influencing variation in movement timing, along with direction and magnitudes, depended on type of movement (i.e., regional [25–310 km], initial migration, or subsequent migration movements [>310 km]). Photoperiod influenced probability of initiating all movements, although the effect was most influential for regional movements. Minimum temperature most influenced initial migration events (probability of movement increased 29% for each 1°C decrease); favorable winds also increased likelihood of initial migration events. Probability of subsequent migration events increased 80% for each 1 cm increase in depth of snow. Subsequent migration movements also were 2.0 times more likely to occur on weekend days, indicating disturbance from humans may influence movements. Migration distances increased 166 km for each 1°C reduction in minimum temperature. We also observed markedly different autumn-winter distributions of marked birds between years. Median locations during autumn-winter 2018–2019 were ~250 km farther north and ~300 km farther west during mid-December–January compared to the same time in 2019–2020. Concurrently, harvest rates for marked females and males were 10% and 26% during autumn-winter 2018–2019 and 26% and 31% during autumn-winter 2019–2020. Climate-related changes may result in increasingly variable autumn-winter distributions, with implications for wildlife recreationalists, conservation planners, and harvest managers.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Life history constraints explain negative relationship between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon in lakes

Resource availability constrains the life history strategies available to organisms and may thereby limit population growth rates and productivity. We used this conceptual framework to explore the mechanisms driving recently reported negative relationships between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes. We studied populations of bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) in a set of lakes with DOC concentrations ranging from 3 to 24 mg/L; previous work has demonstrated that primary and secondary productivity of food webs is negatively related to DOC concentration across this gradient. For each population, we quantified individual growth rate, age at maturity, age‐specific fecundity, maximum age, length‐weight and length‐egg size relationships, and other life history characteristics. We observed a strong negative relationship between maximum size and DOC concentration; for instance, fish reached masses of 150 to 260 g in low‐DOC lakes but <120 g in high‐DOC lakes. Relationships between fecundity and length, and between egg size and length, were constant across the DOC gradient. Because fish in high‐DOC lakes reached smaller sizes but had similar fecundity and egg size at a given size, their total lifetime fecundity was as much as two orders of magnitude lower than fish in low‐DOC lakes. High DOC concentrations appeared to constrain the range of bluegill life history strategies available; populations in high‐DOC lakes always had low initial growth rates and high ages at maturity, whereas populations in low‐DOC showed higher variability in these traits. This was also the case for the intrinsic rates of natural increase of these populations, which were always low at the high end of the DOC gradient. The potentially lower capacity for fish populations in high‐DOC lakes to recover from exploitation has clear implications for the sustainable management of recreational fisheries in the face of considerable spatial heterogeneity and ongoing temporal change in lake DOC concentrations.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2019

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2020

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free‐air, open‐field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer‐term sustained warming.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2021

Among-individual diet variation within a lake trout ecotype: Lack of stability of niche use

In a polyphenic species, differences in resource use are expected among ecotypes, and homogeneity in resource use is expected within an ecotype. Yet, using a broad resource spectrum has been identified as a strategy for fishes living in unproductive northern environments, where food is patchily distributed and ephemeral. We investigated whether specialization of trophic resources by individuals occurred within the generalist piscivore ecotype of lake trout from Great Bear Lake, Canada, reflective of a form of diversity. Four distinct dietary patterns of resource use within this lake trout ecotype were detected from fatty acid composition, with some variation linked to spatial patterns within Great Bear Lake. Feeding habits of different groups within the ecotype were not associated with detectable morphological or genetic differentiation, suggesting that behavioral plasticity caused the trophic differences. A low level of genetic differentiation was detected between exceptionally large-sized individuals and other piscivore individuals. We demonstrated that individual trophic specialization can occur within an ecotype inhabiting a geologically young system (8,000–10,000 yr BP), a lake that sustains high levels of phenotypic diversity of lake trout overall. The characterization of niche use among individuals, as done in this study, is necessary to understand the role that individual variation can play at the beginning of differentiation processes.

Northwest Territories↗
USGS2021

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Hydrologic exchanges and baldcypress water use on deltaic hummocks, Louisiana, USA

Coastal forested hummocks support clusters of trees in the saltwater–freshwater transition zone. To examine how hummocks support trees in mesohaline sites that are beyond physiological limits of the trees, we used salinity and stable isotopes ( 2 H and 18 O) of water as tracers to understand water fluxes in hummocks and uptake by baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.), which is the most abundant tree species in coastal freshwater forests of the southeastern U.S. Hummocks were always partially submerged and were completely submerged 1 to 8% of the time during the two studied growing seasons, in association with high water in the estuary. Salinity, δ 18 O, and δ 2 H varied more in the shallow open water than in groundwater. Surface water and shallow groundwater were similar to throughfall in isotopic composition, which suggested dominance by rainfall. Salinity of groundwater in hummocks increased with depth, was higher than in swales, and fluctuated little over time. Isotopic composition of xylem water in baldcypress was similar to the vadose zone and unlike other measured sources, indicating that trees preferentially use unsaturated hummock tops as refugia from higher salinity and saturated soil in swales and the lower portions of hummocks. Sustained upward gradients of salinity from groundwater to surface water and vadose water, and low variation in groundwater salinity and isotopic composition, suggested long residence time, limited exchange with surface water, and that the shallow subsurface of hummocks is characterized by episodic salinization and slow dilution.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics

In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-based metrics. To address this knowledge gap, we developed and examined 27 climate and ecological drought metrics across dryland areas of the western U.S. Included in the 27 metrics is a suite of 19 largely new “ecological drought metrics” that are designed to quantify multiple aspects of environmental limitation in drylands, including overall growing conditions, seasonal fluctuations, seasonal moisture timing, exposure to extreme drought, and recruitment potential for perennial plants. To quantify these metrics, we simulated water balance pools and fluxes of daily soil moisture at multiple depths with historical weather from 1970-2010 using the SOILWAT2 ecosystem water balance model. We assessed the relationships among these metrics and their spatial and temporal patterns. We found that the inclusion of ecological drought metrics substantially increased the dimensionality of the climate metrics dataset; the number of independent variables needed to explain 90% of the variance in the dataset increased with the addition of ecological drought metrics. Spatial patterns in overall growing conditions represented well-known differences among ecoregions, for example high temperatures and low precipitation in the southwest and cool temperatures and greater precipitation in the northeast. Seasonal fluctuation in soil water availability (SWA) was greatest in the southwest (Mojave Desert) while fluctuation in climatic water deficit (CWD) was greatest in the northwest (northern Great Basin and Columbia Plateau). Seasonal timing of moisture also differed among metrics; the timing of wet degree days (WDD), SWA and CWD were only weakly related to seasonal timing of precipitation. Plant recruitment metrics varied strongly across western drylands. In the Great Plains, recruitment events occurred more frequently and lasted longer than in the intermountain regions, where recruitment events were comparatively rare and short. These ecological drought metrics provide new insight into patterns of soil moisture and temperature that shape the structure and function of dryland ecosystems. The metrics will be useful for assessing the potential impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and developing adaptive resource management strategies to sustain dryland ecosystem services in a changing world.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2016

Carbon dioxide fluxes reflect plant zonation and belowground biomass in a coastal marsh

Coastal wetlands are major global carbon sinks; however, they are heterogeneous and dynamic ecosystems. To characterize spatial and temporal variability in a New England salt marsh, greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes were compared among major plant‐defined zones during growing seasons. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes were compared in two mensurative experiments during summer months (2012–2014) that included low marsh ( Spartina alterniflora ), high marsh ( Distichlis spicata and Juncus gerardii ‐dominated), invasive Phragmites australis zones, and unvegetated ponds. Day‐ and nighttime fluxes were also contrasted in the native marsh zones. N 2 O fluxes were measured in parallel with CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes, but were not found to be significant. To test the relationships of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes with several native plant metrics, a multivariate nonlinear model was used. Invasive P. australis zones (−7 to −15 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) and S. alterniflora low marsh zones (up to −14 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) displayed highest average CO 2 uptake rates, while those in the native high marsh zone (less than −2 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) were much lower. Unvegetated ponds were typically small sources of CO 2 to the atmosphere (<0.5 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ). Nighttime emissions of CO 2 averaged only 35% of daytime uptake in the low marsh zone, but they exceeded daytime CO 2 uptake by up to threefold in the native high marsh zone. Based on modeling, belowground biomass was the plant metric most strongly correlated with CO 2 fluxes in native marsh zones, while none of the plant variables correlated significantly with CH 4 fluxes. Methane fluxes did not vary between day and night and did not significantly offset CO 2 uptake in any vegetated marsh zones based on sustained global warming potential calculations. These findings suggest that attention to spatial zonation as well as expanded measurements and modeling of GHG emissions across greater temporal scales will help to improve accuracy of carbon accounting in coastal marshes.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2017

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota↗
USGS2020

Disturbances drive changes in coral community assemblages and coral calcification capacity

Anthropogenic environmental change has increased coral reef disturbance regimes in recent decades, altering the structure and function of many coral reefs globally. In this study, we used coral community survey data collected from 1996 to 2015 to evaluate coral calcification capacity (CCC) dynamics with respect to recorded pulse disturbances for 121 reef sites in the Main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea (French Polynesia) in the Pacific and the Florida Keys Reef Tract and St. John (U.S. Virgin Islands) in the Western Atlantic. CCC remained relatively high in the Main Hawaiian Islands in the absence of recorded widespread disturbances; declined and subsequently recovered in Mo'orea following a crown-of-thorns sea star outbreak, coral bleaching, and major cyclone; decreased and remained low following coral bleaching in the Florida Keys Reef Tract; and decreased following coral bleaching and disease in St. John. Coral taxa have diverse calcification rates and susceptibility to disturbances characterized by their life history strategies. As a result, changes in CCC over the time series in this study were driven by a combination of shifts in both overall coral cover and in the contributions of calcification by the dominant calcifying coral taxa to CCC. Analysis of coral life history strategies showed that ‘weedy’ corals increased their contributions to CCC over time while ‘competitive’ corals decreased. Conversely, shifts in contributions by ‘stress-tolerant’ and ‘generalist’ corals to CCC varied by taxa across the regions. The increasing frequency and intensity of disturbances under 21st century global change is therefore predicted to affect CCC for many coral reefs with potentially lower and more variable CCC sustained under increased disturbance regimes by the increasing dominance of ‘weedy’ and some ‘stress-tolerant’ corals.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2021

Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy

A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used 3 approaches to investigate potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated future (241 GW) levels of installed wind energy capacity in the United States. Our goals were to identify species at relatively high vs low risk of experiencing population declines from turbine collisions and to also compare results generated from these approaches. Two of the approaches used a calculated turbine-caused mortality rate to decrement population growth, where population trends were derived either from the North American Breeding Bird Survey or a matrix model parameterized from literature-derived demographic values. The third approach was potential biological removal, which estimates the number of fatalities that allow a population to reach and maintain its optimal sustainable population set by management concerns. Different results among the methods reveal substantial gaps in knowledge and uncertainty in both demographic parameters and species-specific estimates of fatalities from wind turbines. Our results suggest that, of the 14 species studied, those with relatively higher potential of population-level impacts from wind turbine collisions included barn owl, ferruginous hawk, golden eagle, American kestrel, and red-tailed hawk. Burrowing owl, Cooper’s hawk, great horned owl, northern harrier, turkey vulture, and osprey had a relatively lower potential for population impacts, and results were not easily interpretable for merlin, prairie falcon, and Swainson’s hawk. Projections of current levels of fatalities to future wind energy scenarios at 241 GW of installed capacity suggest some species could experience population declines because of turbine collisions. Populations of those species may benefit from research to identify tools to prevent or reduce raptor collisions with wind turbines.

Ecosphere↗