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A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California↗

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an “Open Traceable Accountable Policy” initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

Earth's Future↗

Archie’s saturation exponent for natural gas hydrate in coarse-grained reservoirs

Accurately quantifying the amount of naturally occurring gas hydrate in marine and permafrost environments is important for assessing its resource potential and understanding the role of gas hydrate in the global carbon cycle. Electrical resistivity well logs are often used to calculate gas hydrate saturations, S h , using Archie's equation. Archie's equation, in turn, relies on an empirical saturation parameter, n . Though n = 1.9 has been measured for ice‐bearing sands and is widely used within the hydrate community, it is highly questionable if this n value is appropriate for hydrate‐bearing sands. In this work, we calibrate n for hydrate‐bearing sands from the Canadian permafrost gas hydrate research well, Mallik 5L‐38, by establishing an independent downhole S h profile based on compressional‐wave velocity log data. Using the independently determined S h profile and colocated electrical resistivity and bulk density logs, Archie's saturation equation is solved for n, and uncertainty is tracked throughout the iterative process. In addition to the Mallik 5L‐38 well, we also apply this method to two marine, coarse‐grained reservoirs from the northern Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project: Walker Ridge 313‐H and Green Canyon 955‐H. All locations yield similar results, each suggesting n ≈ 2.5 ± 0.5. Thus, for the coarse‐grained hydrate bearing ( S h > 0.4) of greatest interest as potential energy resources, we suggest that n = 2.5 ± 0.5 should be applied in Archie's equation for either marine or permafrost gas hydrate settings if independent estimates of n are not available.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Natural history of a bighorn sheep pneumonia epizootic: Source of infection, course of disease, and pathogen clearance

A respiratory disease epizootic at the National Bison Range (NBR) in Montana in 2016–2017 caused an 85% decline in the bighorn sheep population, documented by observations of its unmarked but individually identifiable members, the subjects of an ongoing long-term study. The index case was likely one of a small group of young bighorn sheep on a short-term exploratory foray in early summer of 2016. Disease subsequently spread through the population, with peak mortality in September and October and continuing signs of respiratory disease and sporadic mortality of all age classes through early July 2017. Body condition scores and clinical signs suggested that the disease affected ewe groups before rams, although by the end of the epizootic, ram mortality (90% of 71) exceeded ewe mortality (79% of 84). Microbiological sampling 10 years to 3 months prior to the epizootic had documented no evidence of infection or exposure to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae at NBR, but during the epizootic, a single genetic strain of M. ovipneumoniae was detected in affected animals. Retrospective screening of domestic sheep flocks near the NBR identified the same genetic strain in one flock, presumptively the source of the epizootic infection. Evidence of fatal lamb pneumonia was observed during the first two lambing seasons following the epizootic but was absent during the third season following the death of the last identified M. ovipneumoniae carrier ewe. Monitoring of life-history traits prior to the epizootic provided no evidence that environmentally and/or demographically induced nutritional or other stress contributed to the epizootic. Furthermore, the epizootic occurred despite proactive management actions undertaken to reduce risk of disease and increase resilience in this population. This closely observed bighorn sheep epizootic uniquely illustrates the natural history of the disease including the (presumptive) source of spillover, course, severity, and eventual pathogen clearance.

Montana↗

Density as a mechanism linking habitat disturbance to increased pathogen prevalence: Evidence from a natural experiment

Sudden habitat loss associated with environmental disturbance can trigger animals to move from affected to undisturbed areas, where increases in local density may occur. Although pathogen transmission is strongly related to local density, how crowding after habitat loss affects infection dynamics in wild populations remains unclear. Here we conceptualize the Disturbance-Density-Disease hypothesis, which posits that disturbance-induced habitat loss results in increased pathogen prevalence via increases in local density at adjacent, undisturbed patches. We then used data from before, during, and after flooding disturbance to test this hypothesis in boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas boreas co-occurring with the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ). We collected Bd samples from captured individuals during a 5-year (2015–2019) mark-recapture study of boreal toads ( n = 1295) that breed in beaver ponds in western Wyoming, USA. During spring of 2017, an extreme flooding event destroyed several beaver dams, resulting in the loss of breeding habitat. We compared host density and pathogen prevalence pre- and post-disturbance at sites affected versus unaffected by flooding. At affected sites, population density and Bd prevalence increased at adjacent, undisturbed ponds following the sudden loss of habitat. Moreover, neither host density nor Bd prevalence increased at control sites in areas unaffected by flooding. Taken together, our results support hypothesized links between disturbance, adjacent increases in density, and subsequent increases in pathogen prevalence. Our study contributes to a growing body of ecological research leveraging natural experiments to extract insights from extreme disturbance events. By doing so, we demonstrate an important consequence of disturbance beyond proximate habitat loss and introduce a clear conceptual approach (the Disturbance-Density-Disease hypothesis) to understanding how pathogen transmission can be affected by disturbance via alterations to local density.

Wyoming↗

Toxicity of sediments potentially contaminated by coal mining and natural gas extraction to unionid mussels and commonly tested benthic invertebrates

Sediment toxicity tests were conducted to assess potential effects of contaminants associated with coal mining or natural gas extraction activities in the upper Tennessee River basin and eastern Cumberland River basin in the United States. Test species included two unionid mussels (rainbow mussel, Villosa iris , and wavy-rayed lampmussel, Lampsilis fasciola , 28-d exposures), and the commonly tested amphipod, Hyalella azteca (28-d exposure) and midge, Chironomus dilutus (10-d exposure). Sediments were collected from seven test sites with mussel communities classified as impacted and in proximity to coal mining or gas extraction activities, and from five reference sites with mussel communities classified as not impacted and no or limited coal mining or gas extraction activities. Additional samples were collected from six test sites potentially with high concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and from a test site contaminated by a coal ash spill. Mean survival, length, or biomass of one or more test species was reduced in 10 of 14 test samples (71%) from impacted areas relative to the response of organisms in the five reference samples. A higher proportion of samples was classified as toxic to mussels (63% for rainbow mussels, 50% for wavy-rayed lampmussels) compared with amphipods (38%) or midge (38%). Concentrations of total recoverable metals and total PAHs in sediments did not exceed effects-based probable effect concentrations (PECs). However, the survival, length, or biomasses of the mussels were reduced significantly with increasing PEC quotients for metals and for total PAHs, or with increasing sum equilibrium-partitioning sediment benchmark toxic units for PAHs. The growth of the rainbow mussel also significantly decreased with increasing concentrations of a major anion (chloride) and major cations (calcium and magnesium) in sediment pore water. Results of the present study indicated that (1) the findings from laboratory tests were generally consistent with the field observations of impacts on mussel populations; (2) total recoverable metals, PAHs, or major ions, or all three in sediments might have contributed to the sediment toxicity; (3) the mussels were more sensitive to the contaminants in sediments than the commonly tested amphipod and midge; and (4) a sediment toxicity benchmark of 1.0 based on PECs may not be protective of mussels.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Acute toxicity of sodium bicarbonate, a major component of coal bed natural gas produced waters, to 13 aquatic species as defined in the laboratory

Water produced during coal bed natural gas (CBNG) extraction in the Powder River Structural Basin of Wyoming and Montana (USA) may contain concentrations of sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ) of more than 3000 mg/L. The authors evaluated the acute toxicity of NaHCO 3 , also expressed as bicarbonate (HCO 3 − ), to 13 aquatic organisms. Of the 13 species tested, 7 had a median lethal concentration (LC50) less than 2000 mg/L NaHCO 3 , or 1300 mg/L HCO 3 − . The most sensitive species were Ceriodaphnia dubia, freshwater mussels (Lampsilis siliquoidea), pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), and shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus). The respective LC50s were 989 mg/L, 1120 mg/L, 1249 mg/L, and 1430 mg/L NaHCO 3 , or 699 mg/L, 844 mg/L, 831 mg/L, and 1038 mg/L HCO 3 − . Age affected the sensitivity of fathead minnows, even within life stage. Two days posthatch, fathead minnows were more sensitive to NaHCO 3 and HCO 3 − compared with 4-d-old fish, even though fish up to 14 d old are commonly used for toxicity evaluations. The authors recommend that ion toxicity exposures be conducted with organisms less than 24 h posthatch to ensure that experiments document the most sensitive stage of development. The results of the present study, along with historical and current research regarding the toxicity of bicarbonate, may be useful to establish regulatory standards for HCO 3 − .

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

The chronic toxicity of sodium bicarbonate, a major component of coal bed natural gas produced waters

Sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ) is the principal salt in coal bed natural gas produced water from the Powder River Structural Basin, Wyoming, USA, and concentrations of up to 3000 mg NaHCO 3 /L have been documented at some locations. No adequate studies have been performed to assess the chronic effects of NaHCO 3 exposure. The present study was initiated to investigate the chronic toxicity and define sublethal effects at the individual organism level to explain the mechanisms of NaHCO 3 toxicity. Three chronic experiments were completed with fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), 1 with white suckers (Catostomus commersoni), 1 with Ceriodaphnia dubia, and 1 with a freshwater mussel, (Lampsilis siliquoidea). The data demonstrated that approximately 500 mg NaHCO 3 /L to 1000 mg NaHCO 3 /L affected all species of experimental aquatic animals in chronic exposure conditions. Freshwater mussels were the least sensitive to NaHCO 3 exposure, with a 10-d inhibition concentration that affects 20% of the sample population (IC20) of 952 mg NaHCO 3 /L. The IC20 for C. dubia was the smallest, at 359 mg NaHCO 3 /L. A significant decrease in sodium–potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na + /K + ATPase) together with the lack of growth effects suggests that Na + /K + ATPase activity was shut down before the onset of death. Several histological anomalies, including increased incidence of necrotic cells, suggested that fish were adversely affected as a result of exposure to >450 mg NaHCO 3 /L.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

In situ and laboratory toxicity of coalbed natural gas produced waters with elevated sodium bicarbonate

Some tributaries in the Powder River Structural Basin, USA, were historically ephemeral, but now contain water year round as a result of discharge of coalbed natural gas (CBNG)-produced waters. This presented the opportunity to study field sites with 100% effluent water with elevated concentrations of sodium bicarbonate. In situ experiments, static renewal experiments performed simultaneously with in situ experiments, and static renewal experiments performed with site water in the laboratory demonstrated that CBNG-produced water reduces survival of fathead minnow ( Pimephales promelas ) and pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ). Age affected survival of fathead minnow, where fish 2 d posthatch (dph) were more sensitive than 6 dph fish, but pallid sturgeon survival was adversely affected at both 4 and 6 dph. This may have implications for acute assays that allow for the use of fish up to 14 dph. The survival of early lifestage fish is reduced significantly in the field when concentrations of NaHCO 3 rise to more than 1500 mg/L (also expressed as >1245 mg HCO 3 (-) /L). Treatment with the Higgin's Loop technology and dilution of untreated water increased survival in the laboratory. The mixing zones of the 3 outfalls studied ranged from approximately 800 m to 1200 m below the confluence. These experiments addressed the acute toxicity of effluent waters but did not address issues related to the volumes of water that may be added to the watershed.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Expanding metal mixture toxicity models to natural stream and lake invertebrate communities

A modeling approach that was used to predict the toxicity of dissolved single and multiple metals to trout is extended to stream benthic macroinvertebrates, freshwater zooplankton, and Daphnia magna . The approach predicts the accumulation of toxicants (H, Al, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in organisms using 3 equilibrium accumulation models that define interactions between dissolved cations and biological receptors (biotic ligands). These models differ in the structure of the receptors and include a 2-site biotic ligand model, a bidentate biotic ligand or 2-pKa model, and a humic acid model. The predicted accumulation of toxicants is weighted using toxicant-specific coefficients and incorporated into a toxicity function called Tox, which is then related to observed mortality or invertebrate community richness using a logistic equation. All accumulation models provide reasonable fits to metal concentrations in tissue samples of stream invertebrates. Despite the good fits, distinct differences in the magnitude of toxicant accumulation and biotic ligand speciation exist among the models for a given solution composition. However, predicted biological responses are similar among the models because there are interdependencies among model parameters in the accumulation–Tox models. To illustrate potential applications of the approaches, the 3 accumulation–Tox models for natural stream invertebrates are used in Monte Carlo simulations to predict the probability of adverse impacts in catchments of differing geology in central Colorado (USA); to link geology, water chemistry, and biological response; and to demonstrate how this approach can be used to screen for potential risks associated with resource development.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Toxicity of aluminum to Ceriodaphnia dubia in low-hardness waters as affected by natural dissolved organic matter

We conducted a series of 7‐d toxicity tests with Ceriodaphnia dubia in dilutions of low‐hardness natural waters, which contained dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations up to 10 mg/L. Stream waters were mixed with well water to achieve 2 target hardness levels (20 and 35 mg/L) and 4 DOC concentrations. Tests with aluminum (Al)‐spiked waters were conducted in a controlled CO 2 atmosphere to maintain the pH at a range of 6.0 to 6.5. The results were used to estimate effect concentrations for survival and reproduction, expressed as total (unfiltered) Al concentrations. There were small differences in total‐Al thresholds between waters with 20 and 35 mg/L hardness, but effect concentrations for C. dubia survival (median lethal concentrations) and reproduction (effect concentrations, 20%) increased log‐linearly with increasing DOC concentrations in the range, 0.3 to 6 mg/L. Slopes of these regressions were similar to slopes from data used to revise the US Environmental Protection Agency water quality criterion for Al, but toxic effects in the present study occurred at total‐Al concentrations 8‐ to 10‐fold greater than toxicity values used for criteria development. This difference probably reflects the long equilibration (aging) times of Al test waters used in the present study (up to 192 h) compared with short (3‐h) equilibration times in other studies used for criteria development. These results confirm the importance of DOC as a control on Al toxicity in low‐hardness waters, but they also demonstrate that total‐Al concentrations are not predictive of Al toxicity, except under defined water quality (pH, hardness, DOC) and exposure conditions (e.g., aging of test waters).

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Modeling the bioavailability of nickel and zinc to Ceriodaphnia dubia and Neocloeon triangulifer in toxicity tests with Natural Waters

We studied biotic ligand model (BLM) predictions of toxicity of nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) in natural waters from Illinois and Minnesota USA which had combinations of pH, hardness, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) more extreme than 99.7% of waters in a nationwide database. We conducted 7-d chronic tests with Ceriodaphnia dubia, and 96-hr acute test and 14-d chronic tests with Neocloeon triangulifer, and estimated LC50s and EC20s for both species. Toxicity of Ni and Zn to both species differed among test waters by factors from 8 (Zn tests with C. dubia ) to 35 (Zn tests with N. triangulifer ). For both species and metals, tests with Minnesota waters (low pH and hardness, high DOC) showed lower toxicity than Illinois waters (high pH, high hardness, low DOC). Recalibration of the Ni BLM to be more responsive to pH-related changes improved predictions of Ni toxicity, especially for C. dubia . We compared several input data scenarios for the Zn BLM, which generally had minor effects on Model Performance Scores (MPS). A scenario that included inputs of modeled dissolved inorganic carbon and measured Al and Fe(III) produced highest MPS values for tests with both C. dubia and N. triangulifer . Overall, the BLM framework successfully modeled variation in toxicity for both Zn and Ni across wide ranges of water chemistry in tests with both standard and novel test organisms.

Illinois, Minnesota↗

Monitored natural attenuation of chlorinated solvents: Moving beyond reductive dechlorination

Monitored natural attenuation (MNA), while a remedy of choice for many sites, can be challenging when the contaminants are chlorinated solvents. Even with many high-quality technical guidance references available, there continue to be challenges implementing MNA at some chlorinated solvent sites. The U.S. Department of Energy, as one organization facing such challenges, is leading a project that will incorporate developing concepts and tools into the existing toolbox for selecting and implementing MNA as a remediation option at sites with chlorinated solvent contamination. The structure and goals of this project were introduced in an article in the Winter 2004 issue of Remediation (Sink et al., 2004). This article is a summary of the three technical areas being developed through the project: mass balance, enhanced attenuation, and characterization and monitoring supporting the first two areas.

Remediation Journal↗

Chloroethene dechlorination in acidic groundwater: Implications for combining fenton's treatment with natural attenuation

A sulfuric acid leak in 1988 at a chloroethene-contaminated groundwater site at the Naval Air Station Pensacola has resulted in a long-term record of the behavior of chloroethene contaminants at low pH and a unique opportunity to assess the potential impact of source area treatment technologies, which involve acidification of the groundwater environment (e.g., Fenton's-based in situ chemical oxidation), on downgradient natural attenuation processes. The greater than 75 percent decrease in trichloroethene (TCE) concentrations and the shift in contaminant composition toward predominantly reduced daughter products (dichloroethene [DCE] and vinyl chloride [VC]) that were observed along a 30-m groundwater flow path characterized by highly acidic conditions (pH = 3.5 ± 0.4) demonstrated that chloroethene reductive dechlorination can continue to be efficient under persistent acidic conditions. The detection of Dehalococcoides -type bacteria within the sulfuric acid/chloroethene co-contaminant plume was consistent with biotic chloroethene reductive dechlorination. Microcosm studies conducted with 14 C-TCE and 14 C-VC confirmed biotic reductive dechlorination in sediment collected from within the sulfuric acid/chloroethene co-contaminant plume. Microcosms prepared with sediment from two other locations within the acid plume, however, demonstrated only a limited mineralization to 14 CO 2 and 14 CO, which was attributed to abiotic degradation because no significant differences were observed between experimental and autoclaved control treatments. These results indicated that biotic and abiotic mechanisms contributed to chloroethene attenuation in the acid plume at NAS Pensacola and that remediation techniques involving acidification of the groundwater environment (e.g., Fenton's-based source area treatment) do not necessarily preclude efficient chloroethene degradation.

Florida↗

Estimated trichloroethene transformation rates due to naturally occurring biodegradation in a fractured-rock aquifer

Rates of trichloroethene (TCE) mass transformed by naturally occurring biodegradation processes in a fractured rock aquifer underlying a former Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) site in West Trenton, New Jersey, were estimated. The methodology included (1) dividing the site into eight elements of equal size and vertically integrating observed concentrations of two daughter products of TCE biodegradation– cis -dichloroethene ( cis -DCE) and chloride–using water chemistry data from a network of 88 observation wells; (2) summing the molar mass of cis -DCE, the first biodegradation product of TCE, to provide a probable underestimate of reductive biodegradation of TCE, (3) summing the molar mass of chloride, the final product of chlorinated ethene degradation, to provide a probable overestimate of overall biodegradation. Finally, lower and higher estimates of aquifer porosities and groundwater residence times were used to estimate a range of overall transformation rates. The highest TCE transformation rates estimated using this procedure for the combined overburden and bedrock aquifers was 945 kg/yr, and the lowest was 37 kg/yr. However, hydrologic considerations suggest that approximately 100 to 500 kg/yr is the probable range for overall TCE transformation rates in this system. Estimated rates of TCE transformation were much higher in shallow overburden sediments (approximately 100 to 500 kg/yr) than in the deeper bedrock aquifer (approximately 20 to 0.15 kg/yr), which reflects the higher porosity and higher contaminant mass present in the overburden. By way of comparison, pump-and-treat operations at the NAWC site are estimated to have removed between 1,073 and 1,565 kg/yr of TCE between 1996 and 2009.

New Jersey↗

Climate change may cause shifts in growth and instantaneous natural mortality of American Shad throughout their native range

American Shad Alosa sapidissima is an anadromous species with populations ranging along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Past American Shad stock assessments have been data limited and estimating system-specific growth parameters or instantaneous natural mortality ( M ) was not possible. This precluded system-specific stock assessment and management due to reliance on these parameters for estimating other population dynamics (such as yield per recruit). Furthermore, climate-informed biological reference points remain a largely unaddressed need in American Shad stock assessment. Population abundance estimates of American Shad and other species often rely heavily on M derived from von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) parameters. Therefore, we developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate coastwide, regional, and system-specific VBGF parameters and M using data collected from 1982 to 2017. We tested predictive performance of models that included effects of various climate variables on VBGF parameters within these models. System-specific models were better supported than regional or coast-wide models. Mean asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) decreased with increasing mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and degree days (DD) experienced by fish during their lifetime. Although uncertain, K (Brody growth coefficient) decreased over the same range of lifetime SST and DD. Assuming no adaptation, we projected changes in VBGF parameters and M through 2099 using modeled SST from two climate projection scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We predicted reduced growth under both scenarios, and M was projected to increase by about 0.10. It is unclear how reduced growth and increased mortality may influence population productivity or life history adaptation in the future, but our results may inform stock assessment models to assess those trade-offs.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗